Back

I am back from covering the World Beer Festival in Durham.

I highly recommend the event for any beer fans out there. They hold it at the home of the Durham Bulls - an absolutely beautiful ballpark. We stayed a ten minute walk away at the Morehead Manor Bed and Breakfast. If you ever have reason to be in Durham, I both recommend staying at the B&B and visiting the stadium for a game (season permitting).

Now onto the busy sports news of the last couple of days. I'm going to start with the Pats before I get to the Sox...

I was happy to see the Pats win. There were a number of things that I found encouraging that the team did on Sunday. However, there were times that the offensive line looked overwhelmed, and there were times that the Niners gashed the Patriots in the middle of the defensive line. Those things keep me concerned moving forward.

As does the fact that Cassel has only once thrown the ball away to avoid the sack.

Fairly or unfairly, Cassel will be compared to Tom Brady for the whole season. Unfairly, it will be to the Tom Brady of 2007, not 2001 when Brady, like Cassel, was still wet behind the ears and filling in for an accomplished veteran. I'm not going to make the mistake of comparing him to Brady.07.

No. What I'm going to do is look at what an untested, unproven late round draft-pick does from start to start against what another untested, late round draft pick did when he got his shot.

And the biggest difference between the two? After four appearances, including three starts (for both) Brady had been sacked eight times for 45 yards. Cassel has absorbed 15 sacks for 68 yards - a pace that will get him sacked 60 times during the season (Brady was sacked 41 times in 14 starts/15 games. Even projecting for Cassel's 16 games, Brady still would only have been sacked 47 times). He has to get better at just getting rid of the ball when there's nothing there.

Otherwise, this is how the two compare -

Cassel - 3-1 (2-1 as the starter), 70 of 104 for 707 yards (67.3 completion percentage), 3 TD's, 3 INT's.

Brady - 2-2 (2-1 as the starter and the team was 3-2 overall), 63 of 111 for 664 yards (56.8 completion percentage), 2 TD's, 0 INT's.

Brady's offense had turned the ball over eight times in the four games in which he appeared, to six times for the Cassel led teams.

The other interesting stat lies on the other side of the ball. The defenses in both seasons for the first four games in which they were dealing with the back-up signal caller on offense gave up exactly 79 points. The defense in 2001 forced six turnovers from the fateful Jets game in which Bledsoe injured himself, through to their 29-26 victory over the Chargers (putting the team at -2 in the turnover ratio). This year's defense has forced five (putting this year's team at -1).

As I've said before - I don't expect Cassel to develop into Tom Brady. But I think that Patriot Nation needs to back off. Despite his flaws, and I acknowledge he has 'em and they do worry me, I think we need to be patient with him.

Four of the team's next six opponents make up four of the five worst pass defenses in the league. Throw in a Colts team that seems to be clawing and scrounging for every win it gets, the hardest game between now and week 11 appears to be with the Bills.

If Cassel can guide the team to a 4-2 record during that stretch, not out of the question given the fact that the only team that looks truly dominant right now is playing in the Meadowlands (and I'm not talking about Gang Green), a 7-3 record at game ten puts the Pats in good position for a ten win season, and a likely playoff berth given that the only team in the AFC that looks en route to 12+win potential is Tennessee.

And onto the playoffs...

And so the Red Sox move on.

It seems like they're doing it differently each time.

In 2004 they had to come back from the brink. They did it with veterans - it was Curt Schilling and Derek Lowe and Pedro Martinez. It was David Ortiz, Dave Roberts, Manny Ramirez, Trot Nixon and Kevin Millar. The list goes on, but it was a largely veteran squad of mostly imports that liked to go by the name "the Idiots".

It was appropriate. They were loud, grungy, silly and had a lot of fun.

In 2007 the team absolutely dominated the Angels in the first round, scrapped around with the Indians in the second, winning that series 4-3. In the games the Sox won that round they averaged 10 runs per game while holding the Indians to an average of 2 runs per game. And then the Sox stomped on the hottest team in baseball, sweeping the World Series.

This year the Sox are getting it done with a lot of home-grown talent mixed with mid-season acquisitions. Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Jed Lowrie, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Bay, Mark Kotsay.

This year there are no Colorado Rockies-type teams in the playoffs.

There were the Angels who won more games than any other team in baseball. Three more than the Rays and five more than the Red Sox. They still buy into their own hype, believing they were better than the Red Sox.

Yes, the Red Sox got lucky bounces, and didn't drop balls, and didn't miss the clutch hits - except in game three when they had multiple opportunities to put the game away. They did things that the top teams are expected to do - perform under pressure, make the plays when needed. John Lackey can believe that the Angels are the better team all he wants. It doesn't make it true.

The better team doesn't outright miss getting the glove on routine grounders at short. The centerfielder doesn't pull up and fail to call off the second baseman on a short pop-fly to shallow center, a move that costs the team three runs. The better team's closer doesn't spit the bit in real pressure situations. I could go on, but I won't.

I do want to touch on Jon Lester, though.

He got jobbed out of a win in game four, but that's okay, the team won. Lester has been absolutely dominant in the post season, throwing 22 and 2/3's scoreless innings over three starts. Only one lefty in the history of the sport has thrown more in October - Babe Ruth with 29. Now we're seeing the team head into a potential seven game series against the Rays with a rotation that should see both Josh Beckett and Jon Lester pitch twice if it goes to a seven game series.

While the Rays have been impressive this year, this is new territory for them, but it's old hat for the Olde Town Team. Just because it's old hat, however, doesn't mean it's a sure thing...which brings me to my last thought.

Yes, I want to see the Sox win it all again - but I won't be crushed if the Rays do (I think that the eventual winner of the World Series will come out of the American League). Why, one might ask, wouldn't I be upset at the Rays winning?

Well, I won't lie - I would be disappointed if the Sox didn't make it, but there's a certain poetic MLB flipping of the metaphorical finger to the Steinbrenners should the team with the second lowest payroll in the league walk away with the championship. There's just something beautiful about that. Maybe no more than seeing the Sox win their third in five seasons, but it's still pretty damn good.

Grinding it out

It wasn't Jon Lester's prettiest win of the season. The lefty was not at his sharpest. He repeatedly fell behind hitters, running too many counts full. He had thrown over 50 pitches through his first three innings.

But he did what aces are supposed to do when they're struggling with their command. He found a way.

He pitched seven innings without giving up an earned run. He gave his team a chance when their post-season horse was sitting on the bench, recovering from a muscle strain. This could be the beginning of the end for the Angels.

The team has now dropped 10 straight post-season tilts with the Sawx, and last night, when the Boston nine were padding their lead, when Masterson, who didn't look sharp, got out of the inning, the Angels were shown sitting on the bench, mouths open and shaking their heads in disbelief.

This wasn't supposed to happen to them. They were healthy, the Sox were not, they had home-field, the Sox did not. They were supposed to wake up this morning up 1-0 in the series. They did not.

Because Lester is beginning to become the ace I argued he could be.

Because Lester is becoming the pitcher the Twins thought he would, the pitcher that would replace Santana in the Twins rotation.

Because the Red Sox are simply better in clutch games.

Putting the "fun" in dysfunction...

"Just win, baby."

Welcome to Raider football.

Define "win."

That press conference that the Crypt Keeper held the other day was a farce. I'm at the point where I pity Raiders fans (and let's face a basic truth about Al Davis, if there were even an iota of truth in his tampering accusation, he would have filed charges with the league over a year ago).

The NFL's answer to Howard Hughes has not only challenged the Ford family for most inept handling of a franchise, but might have past them - at least you can make the argument that the retaining of Millen was an attempt to give the franchise some consistency and give them an opportunity to build something.

Davis gave his coach a quarterback he didn't want, staff he didn't want, and other players he didn't want -the man is trying to make square pegs fit into non-existent holes, and then is blaming the pegs for the failure to fit.

Two quick things...

I don't like to get political at my blog, but I have to see if any of my readers can enlighten me - from what I have gathered, most of the people who support McCain and the Republican Party in the coming election claim to do so on the following two points; that McCain is a better selection for Commander-in-Chief because he was a captain in the Navy, and because Republicans are better in regards to national security issues. Where did these myths start?

McCain was a captain whose career had stalled - the Pentagon didn't feel he was fit to rise higher than captain (he was a pilot - which meant he spent time in a cockpit, but not leading troops into combat - who logged a total of about 20 combat hours and lost five planes) and is now asking the American people to give him a promotion that his bosses didn't believe he qualified for.

As for the second item - where did this myth begin? The Republicans are better with national security issues?

World War I and II, the last two major wars that we came out of in which our leadership is considered to have not made major blunders and handled poorly - Woodrow Wilson, FDR, and Harry S. Truman - all Democrats. Korea and Vietnam, the reigning president at the end of both wars? Eisenhower and Nixon/Ford - Korea wasn't so bad, but Vietnam was an absolute mess.

Now we have a party hell bent on not having the same resolution as Vietnam, in spite of the fact that it's come out that there was no intelligence that supported an invasion, that, by every analysis, stateside security has been weakened by this war, and our troops are being depleted in a place they should never have been in the first place. These are the security experts?

Just because someone is insane, doesn't make them a psychiatrist.

Sorry for the rant.

As for the other item - I'm off for the weekend. I will have my laptop with me, but I don't know if I will be able to blog. It is a working weekend, so I will also have to work to make time to watch game two. I will be in Durham, NC covering the World Beer Festival.

Tough life, huh?

The Wolf at the Door, and other thoughts

The Red Sox are on the verge - the veritable edge. Even though they were the third team to clinch a playoff spot and an invitation to the Dance, they are the last team in. They are on the precipice, looking down at the abyss with the mighty Angels standing behind him, ready to push them into oblivion.

At least, that's what a lot of the pundits would have you believe - that the Red Sox needed to win the division and hope that the wild card Rays would knock off the Angels. They'll point to the Angel's 8-1 record against Boston this year, or the fact that the Angels batted .053 higher in those nine games, or even that they outscored the Sox 61-33.

Yes, these are all trends that could indicate doom for the Sox - a brief appearance in the first round. It could easily be argued that it's very likely, based on those numbers, that the Sox are toast. Hell, Jon Lester's career ERA against the Angels is over seven and Daisuke Matsuzaka's is over 10 - not exactly reassuring.

The team could easily be down 0-2 by the time they return to Fenway.

At least that's the trend indicated by numbers. The numbers don't trend well for the Sox. That is a fact.

Of course, that doesn't include the Angels 0-6 record against the Red Sox in post-season play this decade, having been swept twice.

It's also a fact that until 2004 no team in the history of baseball had ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a seven game series. Until this year, no first baseman had come close to Steve Gavey's errorless streak of 194 games.

To cross sports - the numbers didn't favor the Celtics winning the way they played in the post-season up until the finals. No team in the history of the NFL has ever completed a 16-0 regular season...except for the Patriots last season. No team has ever won 20 regular season games in a row...until the Pats did it. Until this year, no one has ever returned home from the Olympics with as many as seven gold medals. Until 2004, no cyclist had more than five total Tour de France victories. Based on trends, all of the above accomplishments were unlikely.

I'm not saying I think the Red Sox are going to win. I'm hoping they do - but they have their work cut out for them. They will have to fight and scrape to stave off the wolf at the door.

The bottom line is that this is a team that's going to have to adopt the persona of the right side of their in-field. They will have to be the Dirt Dogs, the scrappers, and brawlers. They have to come back to Fenway with at least a split.

The bottom line is that this is an opportunity for one of these two teams to buck a trend and get a monkey off its back - the Angels post-season woes against the Red Sox, or the Sox breaking the monkey of a season in which they barely were able to steal a win from the Angels.

Other things...

Terrell Owens is whining that he didn't get the ball enough in the Cowboys' home loss to the Redskins on Sunday. He's whining after a game in which Tony Romo had 47 attempts, 17 of them went to Owens.

The volatile receiver caught seven passes for 71 yards and a touchdown. He also dropped three, including a late touchdown that would have put the Cowboys ahead, and short-armed at least two others.

Maybe before he whines about the offensive coordinator not calling his number enough, he ought to make the plays on the catchable balls thrown his way.

Can't say this is a surprise, though. It was only a matter of time. Really, the only surprise here, to me, is that he kept it together this long.

I would also like to take a moment to wish good luck to now former Jacksonville offensive lineman Richard Collier who had to have a leg amputated after being shot during the preseason. Collier's life has changed radically in a brief period of time, going from being a monster of a human that pushed people around, to being paralyzed from the waist down. While a most unfortunate turn of events, Collier joins the likes of Sean Taylor and Darrent Williams as apparent targets of attackers.

Granted, Collier supposedly wasn't exactly in one of Jacksonville's high-end neighborhoods when shot, but one has to wonder if some of these players aren't putting themselves into harm's way. These are horrible things that no one deserves, but one still has to wonder.

And now for something completely different....

A brief departure from sports for the moment...

Some of you occasionally visit my other blogs like Grains N Grapes (I have a regular gig writing for the Mid Atlantic Brewing News), and GibberingIdiots (entertainment - I minored in film in college). Today I started a new blog - http://www.rabbitskulldesign.com/

Rabbit Skull is the name that I utilized while selling flash to tattoo artists in Philadelphia.

This is an on-line portfolio for me that I posted, in part, because I recently did some character sketches for the internet zombie movie currently being chronicled on-line in conjunction with the BBC here.

Over the next couple of weeks/months I will slowly but surely upload a variety of examples of my work from my portfolio. Here's a taste, though, with a couple of unpublished editorial cartoons I did back in 2004 (honestly, the wife has been on me to post these for quite some time...I just figured they were no longer timely). Please pay special attention to the bat in the second one (all art is copyright, Kevin M. Smith) -

More later. Enjoy, and feel free, as always, to comment - and yes, I know I have Bonds batting from the wrong side of the plate.

Brown out at the Razor

Troy Brown has officially announced his retirement.

It was hard not to see it coming. He lost last season to injury, and didn't want to play anywhere else.

A pick in a round of the draft that no longer even exists, Troy Brown was as clutch as anyone to ever play for the Patriots - including Tom Brady. He was everything the Patriots needed - receiver, returner, defensive back. He even took pre-season snaps at quarterback. He was the consummate team player. He will never make the Hall of Fame with his numbers, but no one in this era has done what he has done. Not like him.

Often when the team needed a play at a critical juncture, Troy Brown was the man.

During a late season game back in December of 1996 when the Pats trailed the Giants in the Meadowlands, Brown, lying on his back, snared a Bledsoe bullet out of the air for a 13 yard gain on 3rd and 13 to help keep the game winning drive moving.

In the 2001 playoffs Brown came up big against Pittsburgh, contributing to two special teams touchdowns - one on a blocked field goal attempt, the other on a punt return.

In 2004 with the team's defensive backfield decimated by injury, Brown became the team's nickel corner, tied for second on the team with three interceptions while still catching 17 balls for 184 yards. While neither of those numbers are particularly impressive, Brown was pressed into service as a defender again in 2006, virtually shutting down Donald Driver in a late season match-up.

Driver, at the time, was on pace for 1233.2 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Driver finished the season with 1295 yards and 8 touchdowns - in spite of being held to only two receptions for 42 yards (only one of those came while being covered by Brown). Brown effectively shut Driver down.

Speaking as someone who coached kids, Brown was my consummate example - he did everything asked and whatever was needed. He is the Patriots all-time leader in receptions, he was a game-changing kick and punt returner, he was a more than serviceable defensive back, and was listed as the team's fourth quarterback on the depth charts. I suspect he would have played nose tackle had his coach asked him to.

He has always been the sort of player that every team needs to win - the monkey wrench, the guy who grinds it out and gets it done. He's not the most talented guy you'll find. But in his prime, he's one of the first, if not the first guy I would have picked for my team.

Good luck Troy, I already miss watching you on Sundays. You deserve any accolades that come your way.

Panic in Patriot Nation

There are a lot of Patriots fans out there that don't seem to pay close attention to what's going on around the league, or that even know their history. I know that, for the most part, if you're reading this, I'm preaching to the choir, but I still have to get this off my chest.

After the beat down the Pats suffered at the hands of the Dolphins this weekend, a lot of the fans on the message boards, particularly at the Boston Globe and Yahoo, are calling for the Pats to sign Duante Culpepper. Yeah, the same Culpepper that was having trouble playing his way out of a paper bag when he had the Baltimore power running game behind him. The same Culpepper that is failing to generate interest from Kansas City, Detroit, and Cleveland - all winless teams suffering from poor quarterback play as much as from anything else.

Consider since 2001, as a starter, Culpepper has a record of 30 wins and 44 losses, has started 16 games only twice during that time, has averaged 11.1 interceptions per season (but 17 per 16 games), 15.5 touchdowns per season, and has been sacked 3.2 times per start (to put some of that into perspective - Tom Brady has been sacked an average of 1.8 times per start, or an average of 22.4 fewer times over every 16 game season; and 12.5 INT's per 16 games).

Sure, people aren't clamoring for him to replace a struggling Brady - they're clamoring for him to replace what they perceive as a struggling Cassel. Before you go calling for the head of the Pats back-up, think about this -

Culpepper is not the answer - if you think he is, if he was such an answer, why aren't any other team's looking at him? he's done.

As for Cassel -

a) That game wasn't his fault. he didn't give up 38 points. The defense seldom stopped a team that couldn't win more than one game last year. With the Dolphins far out in front, they were able to load up against the running game and basically dare the Patriots to win on the arms of Cassel.

b) A look at Brady's second game? a 30-10 loss to the dolphins in which he passed for a total of 86 yards, no TD's, no INT's and was sacked 4 times for 17 yards of losses. Cassel passed for 131 yards and a TD (1 int), and was sacked 4 times for 19 yards. additionally, the Brady led pats in that 2001 game lost three fumbles. The Patriots lost only one turnover this past Sunday.

Back in '01, after the team got shellacked, Pats fans just saw another losing season ahead of them with a back-up slogging his way through the season in place of his more accomplished predecessor.

No - Cassel is no Tom Brady, but Brady didn't light it up his first two games as a starter either -

Brady's line through his first two NFL starts...

25 for 47 (53.2 percent completion rate), 254 yards, 5 sacks for 26 yards, no TD's, no INT's.

Cassel -

35 for 54 (64.8 percent completions), 296 yards, 7 sacks for 28 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

If anything, Cassel has had a slightly better first two games than Brady. Be patient.

This and that...

Make no mistake, I want the Red Sox to repeat as World Series champs. However, given Hank Steinbrenner's whining about how divisional play and the wild card give other teams an unfair competitive advantage (yes, the same Steinbrenner whose payroll is roughly $70.4 million higher than the next highest team and $90 million more than the Dodgers that he singled out) I would be perfectly happy seeing the Rays, who carry a payroll roughly a quarter that of the Yanks, walk home with this year's championship.

I would be happy to see the Brewers win, even at the expense of the Sox (not thrilled, mind you), but it would be a nice FU to the way the Steinbrenner family has done business.

Anyone else waiting for the Ford Family to say April Fools, no we really still have Matt Millen as our GM. The fact the man set a new standard for futility as a GM is impressive - particularly in an era that has seen the likes of Carl Peterson of the Chiefs, Jay Zygmunt of the Rams, Bill Bavasi of the Mariners, and, of course, Isiah Thomas of the Knicks. The fact he finagled a contract extension during that stretch is nothing less than puzzling. It never fails to amaze me that Lions fans didn't march on the stadium with torches and pitchforks.

Speaking of puzzling - how did Omar Minaya manage a contract extension in the middle of a second consecutive collapse?

Finally, with all the hits cycling has taken in the last two years, all the suspensions of many of the sport's top talents, am I the only one out there thinking that Lance Armstrong, in spite of his age, should be considered the favorite to win next year's Tour de France? I also suspect, considering he's riding gratis, that this is, more or less, a BIG FU to the French.

500

This is post 500. I have been at this for 500 entries.

This one follows a Red Sox and a Patriots loss. C'est la vie.

Let's take a look at some key things from this year...

The Patriots lost a heart breaker in the Super Bowl. Right now everybody is calling it the worst loss in Super Bowl history. While I'm not thrilled the team lost, it's not like they got blown out. They were edged out by a team that came in with a good game plan.

In time, that 2007 season will be remembered in the same way that the Bills four consecutive trips to the Super Bowl are now remembered. Once called the biggest losers in the NFL for going 0-4 in consecutive Super Bowls, the Bills are now talked about as having achieved something no other team did. They're talked about in terms of achievement, not failure. I firmly believe the same will happen for the Patriots, it will just take some time.

Watching the Pats this past weekend, the team has its work cut out for them going into the bye. There were those who talked about how the Bill Belichick probably would like to be getting right back into it next weekend, but I think the bye comes at a good time. This gives the Pats a chance to retool a defense that got virtually no pressure on Chad Pennington in the game against the 'Phins, a chance to retool a defense that had gaping holes in their zone in the secondary, and were brutally bad at tackling.

There will be no extra days off in Foxboro during this bye, and for good reason.

Diamond Dogs...

"Chamberlain had become the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball and Wang has been a 19-game winner every year," Steinbrenner said. "You lose those two guys, it's rough. If the Red Sox lost (Josh) Beckett and (Jon) Lester, the whole national media would be crying about it. We lose two guys better than Beckett and Lester and you don't hear anything." - NY Daily News, August 12, 2008

I won't even get into Hank's delusions regarding the quality of his pitching staff, but I will note that as The Hoodie would say, you play with who's out there, they've got to step up.

With a $200+ million payroll, you damn well better have the depth to deal with injuries, and for all the injuries the Yankees have had, the Red Sox have been just as banged up.

No starts from Curt Schilling.

Missed starts by Beckett, and Daisuke Matsuzaka and an ineffective Clay Buchholz.

David Ortiz missed almost 30 percent of the season and has played with a nagging wrist injury.

Mike Lowell has missed more than 25 percent of the season and played with a nagging hip injury.

JD Drew will have missed close to 30 percent of the season with a bad back.

Manny Ramirez, pretty much half the season due to...well, being an asshole and getting traded.

Julio Lugo missed significant time - about 25 percent of the season, due to injury.

Kevin Youkilis has missed games due to injury as well.

Jason Varitek has flirted with the Mendoza line all season.

That's six of the Sox starting nine and three of the starting five in the rotation missing games due to injury. What do you suppose Hank's reason is for why the Sox stayed near the division lead while the Yankees struggled? Or why the Rays continued to win despite losses of key players for significant stretches?

I know what I saw - the difference was that the Sox, and even the Rays, had youngsters that contributed and their GM's made moves that helped. Paul Byrd instead of Sydney Ponson. Jason Bay instead of Ivan Rodriguez.

The Yankees have six players ranked in the top 25 in payroll, including Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, and Derek Jeter - the top three on the list. When the Sox traded away Manny, they traded away the only top 25 payroll drain on their payroll. That Brian Cashman...helluva GM.

Hank went on to insist that the Yankees will contend next season, but that's not going to happen unless they go out and get some starters and some relievers - because trying to put Joba Chamberlain, a pitcher whose injury issues caused him to drop in the amateur draft, in the starting rotation is still the height of foolishness. Meanwhile, the Sox are well positioned with the first four spots of the rotation set, and guys like Justin Masterson and Manny Delcarmen coming along.

Yes, the Yankees are better in the minors than they have been, but the Red Sox have built up serious depth there as well - the Sox' youngsters have shown the ability to come up big in the majors when called on. The Yanks....well, we saw how well Phil Hughes did helping the team.

The Curse of the Big Sey

So...the Patriots' loss was ugly. A special sort of ugly. And, from an on-field perspective, the loss can be laid squarely at the feet of New England's vaunted defense that was a complete no-show for the game.

If the defense continues to play like that, look for a repeat of 2002, not 2001.

Off the field...well, let's talk superstition...

Some background first, I suppose. I have been involved in sports long enough to give in to superstition. When in high school I ran track for seven seasons. Seven seasons of wearing the same sweats to meets, seven seasons of wearing the same green bandanna around my left ankle until it was little more than a frayed green piece of cloth.

Fast forward - I have a handful of Pats jerseys. Two Bledsoes, a Coates, a Brady, and last Christmas my wife got me a Richard Seymour. Through almost every game of last season I wore the Brady.

I have worn the Seymour three times.

The Super Bowl.

The recent Chiefs game.

And this past Sunday's game.

Some of you out there might have noticed a pattern. Every time I have worn the Big Sey jersey, bad things have happened for the Pats. At this point, the jersey is looking at one of three fates - retirement as game-day attire, to be worn only during the week; treatment by the best voodoo experts and witch doctors money can buy; ritual burning.

If that loss wasn't weird enough, just look around the league at what happened yesterday - doormats took contenders to the limit, up was down, east was west, dogs mated with cats - it was anarchy. Currently the kings of the AFC are all upstarts - Denver, Buffalo, Tennessee, and Baltimore, displacing annual powerhouses San Diego, New England, Indianapolis and Pitsburgh respectively.

Over on the diamond the Sox keep inching closer, but they don't seem able to close the deal. With less than ten games left, they can still take the division, but that's going to take a little more consistency than what the team has been showing.

And now for something completely different...

Regardless of the pimp slapping the Pats took, the weekend was not a total loss from a sports stand-point. As many of you out there know, I play Australian football for the Baltimore/Washington Eagles. I started back in 1999 with the Philadelphia Hawks (at the time it was the Philly Crows).

I am wrapping up my tenth season as a human pinball, and we closed out against the Hawks, for whom I played five seasons.

We wrapped up the final by a score of 121 - 22. It allowed us to close out our second straight Eastern Australian Football League undefeated season and championship. It also allows the team to go to Nationals in Colorado Springs likely as the number one seed in Division I.

As I won't be making the trip myself, I'd like to wish my team luck on their Rocky Mountain sojourn.

Changing expectations

Realistically, it doesn't behoove anyone to make snap decisions based on the first two weeks, but some pretty significant stuff has happened in the NFL's first two weeks - things with season-long implications. Some of the things even predate week one...

Shawn Merriman - let's face a couple of basic facts here...Merriman changes the complexion of the Chargers defense, and so far that defense hasn't been very good. Merriman avoided doctor recommendations to get his knee operated on at the end of last season, choosing instead to rest the knee. Then, once again ignoring the doctors who told him not to play on the screwed up ligaments, chose to play in the first game of the season. With a sub-par Merriman in game one and with his understudy in game two, the Chargers have given up 65 points through the first two games - the most in the AFC. Fourteen more than Miami, 25 more than Kansas City. The only teams that have given up more? The Lions (82), Rams (79), and Seahawks (67). Neither the Lions nor the Rams were expected to compete by anybody, and people are having serious doubts around now about Seattle.

Sure, general manager AJ Smith said all the right things about Merriman's understudy, intimating that they expected no drop off in play, but if that player were really as good as Merriman, wouldn't he be starting opposite Merriman, not playing behind him? If the Chargers cannot get it together on defense, they will be watching the playoffs from their living rooms, not from the sidelines. Period.

Vince Young - Young is as much an emotional and mental description as it is his name. I give the Titans a better chance with Kerry Collins guiding the attack than Vince Young. I don't really believe that Young beat him out in camp so much as the team was committed to going with their first round draft pick. I've said this before about Young and I will say it again - he's a talented athlete, but a mediocre quarterback. He's not committed to the game and that's the last sort of person you want leading your team in a sport where people are expected to sacrifice their bodies. To paraphrase Bull Durham, he has a million dollar arm, but a ten cent head.

My guess is that Young is the second coming of Todd Marinovich, although Akili Smith might be a better comparison. Akili Smith vaulted into the first round of the draft when he had a great senior season in college. Before that, he was on no one's radar. What people forget about Young is that he wasn't even in the discussion in regards to the top of the draft until Texas qualified for the Bowl game, and wasn't mentioned as a top five pick until their Bowl win.

I suspect that when his contract ends, he either goes away completely, or bounces around the league as a back-up for a couple of seasons before fading away.

Jeff Saturday - I'm condensing this one. Saturday, the Colt's long-time center, is one of...well, most of the Colts starting line which is injured. The Colts have struggled mightily on offense through the first couple of weekends without their vaunted line. Fortunately for the Colts, no one is looking like they're ready to just take control of the division.

Osi Umenyiora - So far the pre-season loss of Umenyiora for the season hasn't affected the Giants on defense, but his loss has a definitive impact on the team's depth along the defensive line, one of the team's definitive strengths and a reason why they won last year's Super Bowl. It might never come back to bite them as long as the team remains reasonably healthy along the defensive line. Not unrealistic. And right now this team has the best defense in the NFC East. Given that and their running game, they will compete for the playoffs.

Yes, I predicted that the Eagles and Cowboys to finish ahead of New York, but I also said I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants ended up at the top of the heap at the end of the season. With Umenyiora in the line-up the team can afford injuries to the likes of Justin Tuck. Without Osi, the Giants have to hope that the back-ups are up to snuff - otherwise that changes the landscape in the East. (My prediction assumes that an injury will happen).

Tom Brady - This injury has changed two things...the Pats offensive philosophy (2001 revival on our hands here), and the Patriots as Super Bowl favorites. Yes, this makes life harder for the Pats, but all the favorites in the AFC are struggling early while the Pats work their way through a cupcake schedule that is likely to see them go into their bye at 3-0, and meet up with the Colts with anything from a 5-2 to a 7-0 record. Not unrealistic given the fact that the prolific Denver offense has not yet been challenged by a quality defense and that neither the Chargers nor the Broncos has been able to stop anyone.

Can Matt Cassel take the team all the way? That's the great unknown in regards to the Patriots.

Seattle's receiving corps - Put simply, Seattle has lost their top receivers. Their offense has been the third worst in the NFC. Coupled with the team's defensive problems, Seattle could well be screwed.

That Deion Branch trade/signing is looking pretty weak now, isn't it?

While the jury is still out on Brandon Meriweather, the player the Pats got, in essence for trading Branch to Seattle, Branch himself has not posted the numbers of the top receiver he believed himself to be. Currently, Branch is missing games due to a knee injury, the same Branch that the Seahawks desperately need right now. The same Branch who has started 16 games only once in his career.

Am I the only one who saw this coming?

The Jets' difference makers...

They were the guys the Jets brought in to make a difference against the Patriots. And they did...

Brett Favre threw an interception that killed a Jets drive.

Calvin Pace was nailed for a 15-yard roughing the passer penalty that helped the Pats extend a scoring drive that put the game out of reach.

First round pick Vernon Gholston was the twelfth man on the field during a fourth quarter Patriots drive.

Kicker Jay Feely knocked a chip-shot field goal attempt wide right at the beginning of the game.

Alan Faneca and Damien Woody were part of the revamped offensive line that were able to get all of zero net yards down on the goal line when the Jets were trying to punch the ball in.

Those were just the ones brought in this season.

If you go back to Laverneus Coles who returned last season after a few seasons in DC, how many drops did he have?

Yup.

Those are the Jets difference makers.

The difference between winning and losing.

You figure out for yourself what difference they all made.

So begins LAB

Life After Brady...at least for this season.

Mike Greenburg said something this morning that's probably spot on - if Brady started against the Jets the Pats would very likely have put an absolute beat down on Gang Green. That said, I was very happy with Matt Cassel's performance in yesterday's game. He was solid - hell, he was even Brady-esque to an extent.

For those that don't know, or don't get it, Cassel's numbers yesterday were almost identical to Brady's first NFL start. Brady's line against the Colts in his first NFL start - 13-23-168 with no touchdowns or interceptions and two rushing yards. Cassel - 16-23-165 with no touchdowns or interceptions and seven rushing yards.

The Pats won both games.

Cassel has at least two more games to get his feet wet against competition like the Dolphins and 49ers before facing San Diego. Although, if San Diego doesn't get their act together, the first tough defense that Cassel will face is Indy's in the eighth game of the season. And, quite frankly, if Indy's offense doesn't get it together, their defense might be a little worn out by game eight.

San Diego, by the way, has given up an average of 32.5 points per game through the first two games. Miami, the Pats next opponent, has had a better defense than the Chargers, giving up 25.5 per game, then San Fran at 26.5.

Sure, the Pats play Denver who has been prolific, scoring 80 points in two games, but that's been against the aforementioned Chargers and a Raiders team that's expected to be pretty bad.

The hardest games for Cassel going forward are likely to be Denver (if the team gets into a shoot out, it could be problematic), the Colts, Bills (twice), Steelers, and Cardinals. Ten and six is certainly possible, and I don't think 12-4 is unrealistic. The Pats could, realistically, enter the playoffs as the number one seed (although they could just as easily be the number four).

A few other thoughts -

Both Denver and the Colts benefited from some blown calls right down by the goal line. There will be a lot of ranting about that from San Diego fans and from Vikings fans.

If the refs get the call right on the goal line on that third down play, it's likely that the Colts settle for a field goal given Manning's knee and the time left to play in the game. That's at least a seven point swing, as the Colts don't line-up for the field goal in the final seconds.

San Diego, of course, also then has the ball and closes the game out with 30 seconds to go.

The flip side of both of these - better coaching, better execution and neither the Vikings nor the Chargers are in a position to get screwed by a bad call. The San Diego defense has been brutally bad through the first two weeks, as has the Vikings offense.

Bad calls happen every week in the NFL, sometimes those calls threaten to change the course of a game. Good teams either take advantage of those things (the Colts), or overcome them.

As I used to tell the kids when I still coached, the refs don't see everything, and if we're the subject of bad calls, then so is the other team - get over it and go out and play the game.

Later this week, I'm going to talk about some of the potential season changing things that have happened in the first two games of the season.

The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!

That's the news about the Pats from just about everyone except for ESPN's Michael Smith.

I won't deny that Tom Brady's injury is a big loss for the Patriots. It's huge. But it doesn't mean the season is over for the rest of the team - it just means the end of the season for Tom Brady.

Things have gotten considerably harder for the Patriots - that's a given. However, there's still a good core of players on this team around Matt Cassel. Yes, Brady made the team around him better, winning Super Bowls with the likes of Troy Brown and David Patten as his top two receivers. Right now Cassel has receivers around him and runners behind him that will make him better. The team is going to need that to win.

Even with Brady out, there is reason to believe.

In 2001 a little known late round draft pick who had previously been drafted to play baseball came into an early season game when the star quarterback went down with a potentially season ending injury. The back-up was something of a surprise of a draft pick given that he was behind a much more highly regarded quarterback at his Alma-mater (Brian Griese) and as a starter he shared playing time with his back-up (Drew Henson). This was seen by many scouts as an indictment of his ability.

Every Pats fan knows the story, and they would all be lying if they didn't to a man say that they thought the season was over when the star went down.

Are the Pats going to catch lightning in a bottle twice? I have my doubts, but I won't rule it out.

Brady and his development were aided by a bruising running attack that was nowhere as deep as the current running game is for the Patriots. They won't go 15-1 as I previously predicted, and they might even have issues getting one of the byes, but they will still make the post-season and they should still win the division.

For the time being Cassel is the quarterback, but expect the Pats to look at a few veterans for insurance. The name's Chris Simms and Tim Rattay have already come up.

Rattay is intriguing because he was considered by the Patriots in lieu of Tom Brady. Brady got the nod, supposedly, because he was taller, but Rattay received serious consideration from the Pats brain-trust.

Simms has put up average statistics on what has been a very average (and sometimes below average team). In 15 starts he's 7-8 with 3087 yards passing, a 59.1 completion percentage, and 12 TD's v. 18 INT's. He could do a lot better with the talent of the Patriots surrounding him if he can pick up the system.

I wouldn't be surprised if rumors start about Vinny Testaverde, Doug Flutie, Daunte Culpepper, and Kelly Holcomb. You might even hear Byron Leftwich's name pop up.

I think that Culpepper, Flutie, and Leftwich are all unlikely candidates. Flutie, with how long he's been removed from the game is unlikely to come out of retirement. Leftwich, I have a hunch, is probably not thought of that highly by Pats coaches and scouts - there are too many holes in his game. Sure, Culpepper has a pre-existing relationship with Randy Moss, but he just hasn't been good recently and rumors are that he has developed a reputation for not exactly being the hardest worker in the classroom in recent seasons, and that will kill you on a Belichick coached team.

That leaves Vinny Testaverde who has played for Belichick before and should know the playbook, and Kelly Holcomb who played on the Browns and in the AFC East against the Belichick Pats. If the Pats aren't comfortable with what they see from Simms and Rattay, don't be surprised to see some of these other names come up.

F#@&! F#@&! F#@&!

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news

So...it looks like the gap between the haves and the have nots may have gotten a bit closer in the AFC East today. Anyone else wondering if Bill Belichick has Vinny Testaverde on speed dial? I would ask in regards to Drew Bledsoe, but I think there's still some bad blood there, and I don't believe Drew wants to come back.

Coming from Mike Silver, I have to believe that the report is accurate, but that doesn't mean I can't hope that it's wrong.

The season has gotten a lot harder for the Pats.

And now for the AFC East

The AFC East is going to be one of the most watched divisions this season, if for no other reason than the following -

• People will want to see when the Patriots finally lose a game
• See how Brett Favre fares in New York
• See how Da Tuna's changes work in Miami
• To see if Buffalo can close the gap on a playoff birth

There's a lot going on in a division that faces an easier schedule than it had last season, and the following is how I see the chips falling...

4. Jets - It was the biggest move of any team in the off-season, and it could result in big dividends for the Jets, but I don't think it will. I don't see Brett Favre being the solution on a team that had so many glaring holes last year. If anything, I believe, given the short amount of time he had to practice with the team going into the season, he will be a wash (in regards to Chad Pennington). Before anyone gets defensive about it, I present the following -

1. Favre is learning a new system for the first time in 16 seasons, that will cause early problems for a team that faces New England, San Diego, and an improved Arizona squad in the first four games. This is a team that could easily enter their bye at 1-3 or even 0-4.
   
2. He has had one good season in the last three - last year's when the young talent drafted by Green Bay finally began to gel. The Jets do not have the playmakers on defense, the wide outs (though theirs aren't bad), the runners, nor the offense line that the Packers have. Favre has not made his teammates better the last couple of seasons, he was made better last season by young talent placed around him. Now that talent is around Aaron Rodgers.
3. The Jets brought in Damien Woody and Alan Faneca to protect a quarterback that will be 39 in October - two thirty-plus year-old linemen. Sure, Faneca was a pro-bowler while surrounded by other pretty good linemen in Pittsburgh, but now he has to compensate for a roughly average D'Brickshaw Ferguson, and an okay Nick Mangold on either side of him. And Woody, well, this is a guy who spent his career handling tackles from the guard position, lost his starting job in Detroit of all places, and has been brought in to play tackle. Forgive me if I'm skeptical about that line having great results.
4. With that line, teams aren't going to give Favre time early to connect long. Teams will pressure Favre until the Jet line shows it can handle the pressure. Don't count on the long ball early.

All that said, the Jets will win around six games this year just out of the mercy of the scheduling gods that gave them teams like Kansas City and Oakland - and even the Raiders aren't a given for the Jets this season.

3. Dolphins - This still isn't a good team. As a matter of fact, it's still pretty bad. However, while it's universally acknowledged that the Favre deal was the biggest deal during the off-season, I believe that the Chad Pennington signing is the most important. It makes the Dolphins significantly better than they were last year, it might even make them better than the Jets, and here's why - unlike Favre, Pennington has had to adapt to new coaches and new systems, and it's likely, given Bill Parcells' predilection for hiring guys he's worked with before (he drafted Pennington), it's likely that Pennington will be playing in the same system in which excelled when he was first with the Jets. Overall the team lacks the requisite personnel to be successful, and the 'Phins would be better off with Parcells on the sideline rather than in the executive offices, but he will make the team better in the long run, just don't expect a contender right away. Expect them to be around that same six win plateau as the Jets, maybe even seven and nine if they can steal a game here and there.

2. Bills - I think Donte Whitner's mouth is writing checks his team can't cash. This team isn't bad, but it's got work to do to get to the next level. They aren't ready to compete with the likes of the Pats, Indy, the Steelers, and the Jags, San Diego, and maybe not even the Browns. I give the team an outside shot at the playoffs, but should they eke their way in, it will be one of those final regular season Sundays when they're doing calculus to figure out tie-breakers with teams like the Titans, or the Broncos as they try to figure out the tie-breaker (Dick Jauron to Whitner sometime in December: I think we get in if the Broncos win, but only on a drop kick from 32-yards out or longer by Jay Cutler, unless the Ravens score a safety and it happens to be a new moon).

1. Patriots - A lot of people are putting the Pats at 12-4. I'm going to go out on a limb and put the Pats at 15-1, losing only to the Colts during the regular season. Yes, there were issues during the pre-season on defense, but this is largely the same defense the Pats had last season that was ranked fourth overall, they ran virtually no stunts during the pre-season, and they've added some speed and youth on that side of the ball. In games that the defense struggles, this is still an offense that will be able to score at will against almost every team in the NFL, and it's a better team, from a talent perspective, than the Chargers, probably the second best team the Pats will face this season. It's been 19 games since the last time the Pats lost in the regular season. If my guess is correct, the Patriots will make it to 26 consecutive regular season wins before dropping another game.

On a related note, my wife is creepy. Years ago my wife started doing this thing where she would just say if the Pats would win or lose. If I remember, it started with the 1996 season. She got every game right that season. Overall, through the years she's probably batting about .900, maybe .950. She said, without hesitation nor reservation, that the Patriots would win the Super Bowl this year. She could be wrong, but I wouldn't bet against her.

National League redux and more NFL

Speed kills.

On a day when the Red Sox offense was sluggish, it was the lightweights that came through at the end of the game. Playing the national league base-to-base speed game is what put the team over the top.

With the game tied at four in the ninth, Alex Cora, the same Alex Cora who bats .133 in pressure situations (runners in scoring position with 2 out) hit a flare to lead off the inning. Coco Crisp followed up with a bunt single, putting runners at first and second for Jacoby Ellsbury.

Ellsbury laid down the sac bunt that everyone was expecting, and Baltimore pitcher Jim Miller fielded the ball cleanly, only to throw it into left field in an effort to force Cora at third. Cora came home on the throwing error.

Three of the team's five runs came either from Pedroia or the bottom of the order.

With the come from behind win the Sox inched another game closer to the Rays who have not looked good against the Yankees.

And the NFC EAST....

4. Redskins - This team got by last year largely on emotion after the sudden, violent death of teammate Sean Taylor. That won't carry over. Overall, they're the least talented team in the devision, have the fourth best quarterback and the least experienced head coach in the division. Overall, that's a formula that's likely to result in a five to six win season.

3. Giants - I concede that healthy, this team has as good a chance as any to return to the postseason - they have the best running game in the NFC East, they still have a decent defense, and that running game will go a long way toward making the D better. That said, I still don't trust Eli Manning. Yes, he had a postseason for the ages last year, but he's wildly inconsistent, and that vaunted defensive line, so deep last year, is one injury away from being completely screwed. This team could well win eleven, but could just as easily crap out at seven wins. My guess, eight or nine wins.

2. Cowboys - The most talented team in the division still has the second best defense in the East (New York's is better), and there's a volatility to the team that is kind of like a powder keg waiting to go off. They have a solid coach who has never had a losing season, but he's also never won a playoff game, they have a receiver that has torn apart two previous teams, a cornerback that has never gone a season without at least one arrest, and they have the coach of the future sitting on staff. That can't be good for a head coach's confidence. This team should win ten or eleven games, assuming it doesn't eat itself.

1. Eagles - Yup, going out on a limb here. I don't believe that they're the best team in the division, I think they have problems top to bottom. I'm not convinced that Asante Samuel is going to pay dividends (what ex-Pat has been an impact player with his new team in the Bill Belichick era? Adam Vinatieri and who else?). He's largely the same corner they had before but with a different name. They have okay but not great receivers. What they really have, however, is still the most talented quarterback in the division, and he was largely all the team had when they won the three straight NFC East titles. This year he's likely out to prove that the Kevin Kolb pick was a mistake. I think this team scratches and claws its way to eleven wins and a division title.

City of Dust and the AFC South

Dusted...

He's the Mighty Mite, the Dust Storm. He's possibly the smallest clean-up hitter in the history of the Red Sox. When looking at it from a size perspective, the closest middle of the order you will find is Ted Williams and Jimmy Foxx to today's Dustin Pedroia/David Ortiz pairing. The big difference is that Foxx protected Williams in the line-up, not the other way around.

The team seems to have found Pedroia's spot in the order. To wit - He's batting .208 (72 at bats) when hitting first in the order, an impressive .339 (484 at bats) when batting second in the order, but when he's batting fourth, and yes, 14 at bats isn't a great sampling, but the numbers are obscene - he's hitting an mind-boggling .643, his on base percentage is .647, he's slugging 1.071 and his OPS is 1.718. He has yet to strikeout while batting fourth, while batting second he averaged one strikeout per 12.1 at bats.

In three games in the clean-up spot, his Runs Scored and Runs Batted In Per Game, or as I call it; RSBIG, is 3.33.

With Kevin Youkilis fighting a virus, Mike Lowell and JD Drew injured, Josh Beckett missing a couple of starts, Big Papi playing injured, Manny Ramirez playing his way out of town, and Varitek hitting like his last name should be Mendoza, Pedroia has led the team. Pedroia has been the spark plug, leading a cast that includes Jed Lowrie, Jason Bay, Jeff Bailey, Alex Cora, and Mark Kotsay.

Think about this for a second - The BoSox took two of three from potential post-season contender Chicago with a line-up that includes only opening day starters at only centerfield, second base, catcher, and designated hitter. More than half the starting line-up has turned over. They have missed starts from both of last seasons top two starters - Daisuke Matsuzaka and Beckett, and got virtually no contribution from the five spot in the rotation until recently.

I seem to remember some owner down in New York whining about how his team would be in contention if it weren't for injuries. Maybe they're just not that good a team. At least not good enough to compete with the Dust storm going on in Boston.

And onto the AFC South...

4. Texans - This team is improving, but they might be in the toughest division in football right now. While I believe this team will only win about five or six games tops, I also see them being in a lot of games at the end, losing several by less than a touchdown. If the offense improves and becomes more consistent, look for them to make some noise next season. This just isn't their year.

3. Titans - I see this team taking a step backwards. I still don't trust their quarterback and his desire to play the game. They will likely be 8-8 and out of the playoffs this season.

2. Colts - I think the Colts could still win the division, and I firmly believe that they will be going to the playoffs, but there are concerns around the Colts that mirror certain concerns I have with the Patriots. Manning is coming off an injury that will limit his mobility while playing behind a banged up line. Because of this there's every possibility that the Colts will get off to a slow start this season. Part of the issue I have with the line is that the middle of it is a mess. The big problem that the Colts will have that the Pats don't have is that the Colts face stiffer divisional competition. I see 10-6 and a wild card berth.

1. Jaguars - The Jags also have issues, particularly given the recent shooting incident, and they had a turbulent off-season with players getting in trouble. The Greg Williams defense might even be an issue for this team in getting over the hurdle that is the Colts considering, as good as his defenses have been, they have always lagged in the bottom half of the league in take-aways, and that might be a big problem. If everything clicks, they could win 11 or 12.

Goin' South, NFC Style

The NFC South has been a strange division. In every season since 2003 the team that was worst followed up by going to first the following season.

This year that trend breaks.

Yes, I actually believe that the Falcons are better than they were a year ago, but this is a team in development, not a team ready to win now. And away we go...

4. Falcons - While I'm not necessarily convinced that this team is going to win more games than they did a year ago, I do think this is a better team than last year's edition if for no other reason than the fact that I believe that Atlanta is better positioned to be successful down the road. However, even though I think four wins is the likely total, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team steal one or two and creep up to six wins.

3. Panthers - The more I have seen of this team since their ill-fated run at the Super Bowl a few seasons back, the more I think that was just one of those fluke seasons where everyone had that one career season, the serendipity of everyone on an otherwise average team peaking at the same time to come within a few minutes of a championship. In an effort to recapture that magic, the team has brought back a 35-year old Muhsin Muhammad to pair with the volatile Steve Smith in spite of the fact that Muhammad seldom got separation in Chicago. If Julius Peppers has a 2008 like his 2007, it's going to be a very long, very unrewarding season in the Carolinas.

2. Buccaneers - Chuckie's boys are the tough out, so to speak of the division. They'll hang around until the end, they'll pound you with a physical running game and a tough defense, but they'll also lose one or two to teams they have no business losing to. Realistically, they have just enough talent to scare some people and play spoiler, but they don't really have enough to get all the way to the Bowl. Chances are that they'll hit 8-8, maybe a repeat of last season's 9-7, and they may even win the division again, but they'll have to overcome the Saints which might be the best team in the division.

1. Saints - The Saints could potentially win 11 or 12 with the talent they have, assuming their defense comes together and Jeremy Shockey doesn't do to their locker room that he did to New York's. The chances of that, I think, are slim as this is a veteran quarterback that Shockey is dealing with, and it's definitively Drew Brees' locker room. This isn't a locker room that had veterans like Tiki Barber undermining the QB, and Brees isn't a guy that let's that stuff get to him (see his time with the Chargers for reference). Of the division's team's that have a shot at the playoffs, I think only the Saints have enough talent to make noise in the post-season.

Slipping away and the AFC North

They can feel it in the Big Apple. It was obvious last night.

A crowd of 51,000 in the Bronx watched in what can only be called reserved quiet as the Yankees went out of last night's game with a whimper. The bang was provided by the visiting Red Sox.

Through the two games the Sox have scored 18 runs against Yankee pitchers, with Dustin Pedroia and Jason Bay combining to drive in 10 runs. The only two Sox players that failed to score runs in the two games were Alex Cora and Kevin Cash, and Cora at least had an RBI, making Cash the only player who failed to contribute to the Sox' offensive outburst.

And the Yankees' $30-million man and clean-up hitter? The man who's supposed to be an offensive tour-de-force - Alex Rodriguez - is 2 for 9 (.222) in the series with one run scored on one batted in (home run), has left all eight men on that were occupying the base-paths during his at bats, and, overall, is batting .246 with runners in scoring position (he's batting .348 with the bases empty). This might be a radical thought, but maybe he should bat lead-off.

For a contrast, and maybe this illustrates how the seasons have gone for the two teams, Kevin Youkilis, who's currently batting clean-up behind David Ortiz, is batting .281 with the bases empty, but .360 with runners in scoring position. To take the comparison a step further - Youk is batting .429 and has 12 RBI with the bases loaded. A-Rod: .100 with 4 RBI.

With Jon Lester on the mound this afternoon against Mike Mussina, I would say today's game is a toss-up, giving the Sox a 50-50 chance at a sweep.

With 30 games left, in the season, more than 60 percent of them at Fenway for the Sox, the Yankees likely have to get to at least 94 wins, and probably 95 just for a playoff bid. That would be a gaudy and unrealistic 25-5 record for the final 30 games of the season.

It's time for the Yankees to begin looking at some of their minor leaguers, to see who the future of the team really is.

And on to the AFC North...

I don't see any major issues changing the face of this division from last year. Injuries and quarterback problems are issues for almost all of these teams.

4. Ravens - They may have found their quarterback of the future, but the future isn't now in Baltimore yet. They'll be in games and play teams tough, but they're at least a year away from being good. I'm guessing at six wins.

3. Bengals - Carson Palmer is already banged up, Chad Johnson is playing through a shoulder injury, and the team is so short at wide out that they resigned resident thug Chris Henry, whom the team claimed they would never re-sign when they cut him. And he can't play in the first month due to a four game suspension. This is not going to be the high powered offense we're used to. If they win more than seven, it will be something of a miracle, and, given their defensive woes, they could end up with four wins on the season.

2. Browns - They haven't looked good in the pre-season, but there's a lot of potential here. Their biggest issue remains on the defensive side of the ball. If they manage to work that out, this team could make some noise. As it is, they aren't surprising anyone this season, so I wouldn't be surprised at 8-8.

1. Steelers - I think that Pittsburgh takes the division - possibly at 9-6. Their biggest problem could be something of a lingering hangover from getting beat-up by other elite teams such as the Jaguars and Patriots late in the season. Only three of the Steelers wins last season came against teams that won at least ten games, and only one was a playoff contender. This season they face teams nine times that either won ten or made the playoffs last season. They have to play better against good teams, or this division might be sending an 8-8 division champ to the big show, and I guarantee, that team will be one and done.

The Dog Days and the NFC North

In recent years this series - Sawx-Yanks - in the dog days of August has meant a lot to the complexion of the American League East. It has played a part in determining the East Champ, and even the Wild Card contender. It's where the wheels came off of the Sawx in 2005.

It's where the Sawx gave Yankees hope for the division last season.

This year it's less about the division than who ends up out of the playoffs. Nothing is written in stone, and both the Yankees and Sox have looked a little cooked lately, while the Twins have surged recently. Granted, the Sox were looking a little cooked at the beginning of
September last season, dropping five of their six to the Yanks in August and September and look what happened there.

But let's face a few basic facts - a month ago the Sox were by themselves as the wild card entrant if the season ended then. Now the margin of the Twins is smaller than the space between the Sox and the division leading Rays - who have added games between the two teams in the last month. The Sox still have a chance to pull it off - even the division - but the team has to play better ball of the next month than they have for the last month.

Needless to say, it's gonna be one hairy September in the Hub of the Universe.

And onto the gridiron...

The NFC North - Something feels weird about this division. It's filled with teams that all have issues, fatal flaws if you will, in regards to their aspirations to a Lombardi Trophy. All have an issue at a key position - quarterback - and some have issues that go deeper.

4. Lions - They may actually have the best quarterback in the division in John Kitna (and this might be the first time in Kitna's career that has EVER been written about him), and based on last year, Rod Marinelly might finally have this team heading in the right direction. But let's face two basic facts: The Ford Family ownership of this team has been an unending nightmare, and Matt Millen's tenure as a GM has been record shattering, and not in a good way. No team in the history of the NFL has had as many consecutive seasons with double-digits in the loss column, and I have a hard time buying that he's learned to be better than any of his in-division counterparts. If the Lions finish ahead of another team in the division, I'm guessing it has less to do with the Lions elevating their level of play than it does with the other team spitting the bit. I have a hard time seeing this team improving on their 7-9 season of last year, and considering their schedule gets considerably tougher after the first three games of their season, I wouldn't be surprised if they regressed to four wins.

3. Bears - The carousel goes around and around at the signal caller position, and it looks like Kyle Orton is getting the call again. You'd think someone there could pick a pro-caliber QB, but alas, no. But the real killer for this team is that the D is not what it once was, and lacks depth. I'm guessing in the vicinity of 8-8.

2. Vikings - Despite the deficiencies of Tavaris Jackson, I think this team will compete for the division, and may even win the division, but that's going to depend on three things. One - Jackson has to keep from making the mistake that kills the team. Two - the health of Adrian Peterson. The young running back racked up some hard miles in his rookie year, and breaking down is a strong possibility, and if that happens this team will plummet in the standings. His ability to pound the ball last season made the Minnesota defense better by keeping them rested. If he's not touching the ball, they pay. Three - the health of Aaron Rogers.

1. Packers - The Packers won 13 games last season and were a few plays away from the Super Bowl. Their only major change was at quarterback. Rogers has been in the system for three seasons already, has been solid in preseason, and was better against the Cowboys last season than Brett Favre. If Rogers stays healthy, the Pack wins the division, albeit not by much. Last year they were five games better than the 8-8 Vikings. This season they're maybe two games better, and maybe not even that.

Live from the Outer Banks, iiiiiittttt'sss the Aaaaannnngry Fan

So, I've been in Corolla, NC, for the last week (I'm still there as I type this on the porch of the beach house the family has rented). It's been a little difficult to give a rat's ass about a whole lot going on when I've been sitting in breezy low 80 degree temperatures. It has also been kind of hard to focus with my two daughters and four nieces tearing around the house like miniature banshees. So I have largely been spending days at the beach cranking through Dennis Lehane novels.

Some quick thoughts and then my pre-season take on the NFC West...

Is it just me, or has there been a domino effect on the bullpen every time Clay Buchholz has pitched lately? He struggles, they go to the pen, and they struggle. It's almost as though they're taking their cue from whoever the starter is and if the starter sucks it up, so too does the pen. I haven't looked closely to see if this is true, but it certainly feels like this is what's been happening lately. It's probably for the best that Buchholz was sent back down.

If the Sox can't come up with a viable replacement for Buchholz, a guy who can go at least .500 in his place, the Sox are going to lose out on the division, and likely the playoffs, as the AL Central looks like it has a pretty strong chance of sending two teams to the big dance.

Carl Pavano is expected to start for the Yankees on Saturday. Stick a fork in 'em. Right now this is their rotation -

Mike Mussina
Carl Pavano
Darrell Rasner
Andy Pettitte
Sid Ponson

That's not only not a championship rotation, it's a rotation that's barely average. Only one of the starters gives up fewer than four runs per nine innings pitched, and that's Mike Mussina. Not exactly known for coming up big in the late season pressure games (sure, he hasn't been awful in the post-season, but 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA is hardly dominating, or impressive).

Now onto the West...

This is a hard one to call because, like the AFC West, the NFC West is rife with mediocre and bad teams. It's hard to ascribe any separation between the Rams and the 49ers, as well as the Cardinals and the Seahawks. The two duos definitively make up the top and the bottom of a bad division. One of the teams might surprise, it's always possible, but this is how I see it...

4. 49ers - I think this is a team going backwards. They appear to lack a true NFL quality quarterback, instead having three guys that would be back-ups on other teams. Frank Gore is solid at running back, but the passing game and the defense are suspect. I have a hard time seeing this team improve on the five wins of a year ago, and suspect that they could slip to a four win season easily.

3. Rams - Like San Fran, I'm not convinced of this team's improvement. However, with contests against the rival 49ers (twice), the Jets, Dolphins, Falcons, and Bills, there's a chance this team could eke out five or six wins, although, I suspect at least one loss to the Niners, and possible losses to the Jets and Bills. I wouldn't be surprised by three wins, but I would be by any more than six.

2. Seahawks - I haven't been thrilled by this team's personnel moves since the Super Bowl loss to the Steelers. I think they overpaid for Deion Branch, an oft-injured, undersized receiver who got it into his head, and into the Seahawks' heads that he was better than really is. They let one of the better offensive linemen on the team walk away. They signed TJ Duckett, who I feel has never quite lived up to what little hype has surrounded him. The only signing I liked was Julius Jones. While they are clearly one of the most consistent teams in the NFC, I believe time has chipped away at their hold on the division and that they may be in danger of missing the post-season this year. All that said, I'm looking at nine wins, maybe ten for this team.

1. Cardinals - I'm buying into the hype. The last time I did, I got burned, but I'm going to ride with it again. Knowing the history of this team, they could easily wind up at the bottom of the division, but I think they're poised for a playoff run. They have a young, high-octane offense in place that has shown signs of life the last two seasons. With the offensive weapons in place, the Arizona brain trust has concentrated on their defensive shortcomings, and the buzz out of the desert is that the D could be pretty good this year. If that happens, this could be a team that makes some noise. They'll have their work cut out for them with all the teams from the East on their schedule, but I can see them stealing one here and there to fight their way to around ten wins.

Sizing up the AFC West

Welcome to my sizing up of the NFL before the start of the 2008 season. The following is how I see the quality of the teams stacking up, and the order in which I see the teams finishing. Any of the teams could finish better or worse than what I have listed here, and my first look will be at the AFC West.

4. Raiders - With the addition of running back Darren McFadden, the Raiders are better than they were a year ago. How much better remains to be seen. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced that JaMarcus Russell is going to fare any better in the pros than Michael Vick did. His high draft status was predicated pretty much on one strong season in college. The last team that did that was the Bengals when they drafted Akili Smith in the first round. I think they inch their way to a six win season.

3. Chiefs - I don't really believe that the Chiefs are better than their brethren by the Bay, or that Brody Croyle is going to be any better than Russell will be. Honestly, I think the two teams will battle it out for a spot in the West's basement. While I'm thinking six wins from the Chiefs, I wouldn't be surprised at a repeat of the team's four win 2007 campaign.

2. Broncos - There's some talent on this team, but I've never been as convinced of Mike Shanahan's genius as he or Denver fans have been. He's made some horrible personnel decisions, including the drafting of Maurice Clarett, and for an offensive genius, he's not exactly been able to get the most out of his quarterbacks. I think this team is looking at .500, 9-7 tops.

1. Chargers - San Diego is still the class of the West. They have the best defense and the best running back. Unfortunately their quarterback took a big step backwards last year, their running back likes to look for excuses outside of his team for why they lose, and I still don't have confidence that Norv Turner is the coach to get this team to the promised land. There were whispers of infighting and players not completely committed to Turner's system last season, and the team won fewer games. They will make the playoffs, likely at ten wins, but they will not get the bye.

The dividends of youth

For the second straight night the Red Sox battered Texas pitching, scoring eight runs through the first five innings. Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, and Jed Lowrie accounted for six batted in of the eight runs. The three of them make for an average age of 27.33 years old (approximately). Youkilis and Bay are both 29, Lowrie is 24.

The 25 year old Dustin Pedroia had another two hits tonight and is now 7 for 11 against Texas pitching.

But more importantly, 24 year old Jon Lester was in shutdown mode for seven and a third innings only one day after the spot-starter and bullpen immolated. Lester gave the bullpen a much needed break.

However, Mike Timlin poured gas on the fire in the eighth, failing to record an out before giving up one earned run of his own, and allowing two inherited runners to score - screwing an otherwise beautiful start by Lester who got the two runs credited to his ERA.

Even Justin Masterson, 23, got in on the win with a scoreless ninth.

I've noted this before, but there is a definite "the future is now" vibe that the Sox have with homegrown youngsters like Masterson, Lester, Pedroia, Lowrie, Ellsbury (24), and Youkilis leading a contingent of ten Red Sox' minor league products on the major league roster.

This is what Brian Cashman wants, what he is aiming for with the likes of Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain. It, so far, is not what he has received.

And it has made the difference.

As the Yankees have struggled with injuries and age, the Sox have managed to engage in plug-and-play with their youngsters, who have performed. Take one look at Kennedy and Hughes. Neither has performed.

As a matter of fact, neither was ready for the majors, and now the Yankees are relying on the likes of Sidney "The Pontoon" Ponson, and Daryl Rasner for whenever they begin their playoff drive. If these guys make up 40 percent of your rotation, the post-season is a long-shot. At best.

But these are the dividends the Sox have received for not rushing the young guns to the majors - Clay Buchholz not withstanding. And it's exactly why they should be in the thick of it next year as well.

The Hard Way

The Red Sox inched a game closer to the Rays. They did it the hard way.

In a four-hour marathon of a game, the two teams combined for 87 at bats, 37 hits, 36 runs, 36 men left on base, 35 RBI's, 13 walks, four errors, and only 12 strikeouts. The two teams used a total of 11 pitchers that threw a combined to throw more than 400 pitches.

By the end of it all, the Red Sox won by a final score of 19-17, a score more indicative of a football game rather than a baseball game.

While it's not encouraging that the bullpen trio of Javy Lopez, David Aardsma, and Manny Delcarmen combined to give up seven earned runs in two innings (a combined raging 31.50 ERA for those three pitchers in that two innings), it was good to see Hideki Okajima come in and put out the fire - stem the bleeding so to speak.

Other game observations...

David Ortiz looked like his wrist isn't bothering him so much right now. He had two home runs (in the first inning), one wrapped around the Pesky Pole, one to dead center, and a ground rule double to the triangle in center. For the game he was 3 for 4 with four runs scored and six RBI's.

In the bottom of the eighth, with two outs, the game tied at 16 and Dustin Pedroia on, Texas manager Ron Washington chose to intentionally walk David Ortiz (batting .260 this year) to get to Kevin Youkilis - the same Kevin Youkilis that is second on the team with a .316 batting average, leads the team in home runs with 22 (21 before his final at bat last night), and RBI's with 81.

To that point in the game Youkilis was 1 for 4 (home run) with two strikeouts and two RBI's. Youk, about due for another hit, made Washington pay for his choice, hitting a three run shot that cleared the Monster where the Wall meets the centerfield triangle. To borrow from Bull Durham - anything hit that far oughta have a stewardess.

Other positives include the fact that knuckleballer Charlie Zink pitched reasonably well into the fifth inning against a heavy hitting Texas lineup before the wheels fell off. I'll generally take four-plus innings from someone who never had a major league start before.

JD Drew continues to have a strong season with two hits, an RBI and three runs scored. Jason Bay continues to justify the trade with another RBI as he continues to hit over .300. But it's the middle infield that's tearing it up.

Jed Lowrie continues to make Theo Epstein's choice to give Julio Lugo a three year deal look foolish as he had another two hits, another two RBI's, and a run scored. His battery-mate at second, Dustin Pedroia is the Mighty-Mite, the Mini-Monster, He's become the Red Sox toughest out. For the game he was 5 for 6 with five runs scored and two batted in - including the RBI that tied the ballgame.

Lester goes next, then Matsuzaka, and Beckett likely followed by new acquisition Paul Byrd. Byrd should make things interesting at the back end of the rotation.

The time is now, and other thoughts...

The Rays are getting dinged up - Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford, the team's two biggest offensive threats just went on the DL. Crawford is likely done for the year, and, with a broken wrist, it would be surprising to see Longoria back before the middle of September. The Red Sox, meanwhile, just finished a 4-3 road trip, winning two of three against the bottom of the barrel Royals, and taking two of four from the wild card hopeful White Sox.

What should be encouraging is that the Sox outscored their two opponents 38 - 22. Their big issue on the road this year has been scoring runs.

Jed Lowrie is making if very difficult for the Sox brass to justify keeping Julio Lugo. In fewer than half the at bats, Lowrie is on pace to have 105 RBI's over the course of a 500 at bat season. Lugo is on pace for 42 over the same number of at bats. Add to that the fact that Lugo leads the team with 16 errors, six more than Mike Lowell in only 11 more total chances, and eleven more than fellow middle infielder Dustin Pedroia (in 256 fewer chances than Pedroia), Lugo may have played his way into being a very expensive back up.

On a separate note -

This weekend I finally got to see the Pats-Ravens pre-season game, and here are some of the thoughts regarding that...

Matt Cassel didn't look as bad as his stats line. He wasn't good, but he had at least two completions dropped on him. If he doesn't improve, in over the next couple of games, I think he's gone by opening day.

The Pats brain-trust needs to hope that Brady doesn't sustain any major injuries.

More than Cassel, Chad Jackson has to perform. Jackson was outperformed by Matt Slater, CJ Jones, and even safety Ray Ventrone at the wide-out position.

I don't know that the Ventrone experiment is going to land him on the roster or not, but it's going to be fun to watch during the pre-season.

The team's young linebackers looked good - Jerrod Mayo had a great hit, standing up and stopping the Ravens running back at the line of scrimmage, Shawn Crable was very active, and even Pierre Woods, who really needs to show improvement this year, looked good coming off the edge. If I were to base the linebackers on what I saw in that game, all three of those guys are making the final roster.

Lamont Jordan looked good, but it was mostly against competition that he should look good against. I would like to see more of him against the first and second stringers.

I would like to see less of Billy Yates pretending to be a turnstile at right guard.

I would like to see better pressure from the front four on defense.

Cassels made of sand

I won't get to see last night's pre-season match-up between the Patriots and Ravens until Saturday, but I think I can safely say that Matt Cassel needs to play better than he did to remain on the roster. Cassel completed two of four passes for eleven yards. Unfortunately, one of those completions was to the Ravens.

In fact, without Brady playing, Pats signal-callers tossed three int's to no touch downs.

Cassel, in the last year of his contract, will need to perform better in the subsequent exhibition matches to find himself on the Pats roster - or possibly any other roster come the regular season opener.

On an encouraging note - the Pats got a big play from their connection to the roots of the NFL - rookie linebacker Shawn Crable, a third round pick, had three tackles, an assist, half a sack and an interception.

Crable, a six-foot-five, 245-pound alum of Tom Brady's alma mater, was born and raised in Massillon, OH. For those who don't know, Massillon was home to the Massillon Tigers, a football team that folded in 1920. The Tigers won the Ohio Independent Championship (the pro championship) for three consecutive years, from 1904 to 1906 - beating the Canton Bulldogs in the '06 title game. In October of 1906, Canton is the first team credited with completing a forward pass under a rule change for the '06 season.

Other sand castles...

The Jets feel they have added the final component to becoming a contender with Brett Favre. This followed an off-season during which they over-hauled their offensive line, adding Alan Faneca (32 years old) at left guard and Damien Woody (31) at right tackle. The 32-year old Faneca will be wedged between D'Brickshaw Ferguson at left tackle and Nick Mangold at center. While that improves the left side of the line, Faneca was largely manhandled by Patriots linemen in the last couple of Steelers-Patriots meetings, and, at 32, there's very likely not much left in his tank (yes, Faneca was first team all-pro last year, but he also had better people around him than he will in the Meadowlands).

As for Woody, their answer to stopping people on that side is a career interior lineman with a weight problem and slow feet. 'Nuff said.

All in all, the Jets should be better, but this isn't an offensive line that anyone is going to worry about until they show they can really manhandle their opponents.

As for Manny...I would be a lot more interested in Major League Baseball's announced investigation into Manny Ramirez and Scott Boras if I believed that anything could really come of it. I appreciate that Bud Selig feels it should be investigated. I believe discipline should be in order, but, despite some of the Union's recent losses in the court of public opinion and in the halls of the Nation's law makers, I don't think that MLB will be able to make anything stick in regards to Manny. They might be able to sanction Scott Boras, but that's where that discipline will end.

In Da Bronx the starting rotation is quickly unraveling. Joba Chamberlain will miss at least two more starts, and possibly more (some rumors floating out there say that even when he gets back, it might be straight to the bullpen), and now word is that Andy Pettitte might miss a start with stiffness in his pitching arm. None of this should be a surprise given - Chamberlain was rushed into the rotation, almost never throwing in excess of 30 pitches per outing in the last season and a half, and then, within four starts throwing at least 100 pitches, and averaging more than that per start since then.

As for Pettitte. I guess it's harder to be as effective as he was in Houston now that he's off the juice.

With the Yankees rotation crumbling, it will take a miracle for the Bommahs to make the post-season. It's not unrealistic - just very, very unlikely.

Observational Thursday

Jacoby Ellsbury can play defense. I don't think Coco would have made the catch that Ellsbury made, diving under the outstretched glove of Jed Lowrie.

Speaking of Ellsbury - for all his recent struggles at the plate, he's hitting .357 in his last nine games with one home run, four runs scored, five driven in, and two stolen bases. Nice to see.

During the Red Sox championship runs we often heard from the pundits about how the Boston nine would be in trouble if they lost David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez for any significant time. Let's face it - They've been without Big Papi this whole season. Yeah, Ortiz has been in the line-up for all but a month, a month and a half, but this is a .250, roughly 75 RBI Ortiz, not the .302, 128.4 RBI per season Big Papi we've seen before this season in Boston. And Manny, well, let's just say the Sox are 6 - 4 in their last ten, with five of those wins coming after Ramirez was traded.

Over in the NFL...

Brett Favre on the Jets. This should be entertaining. It won't be good, but it should be entertaining. Consider - the last time Favre had to learn a new system was when he was traded to the Packers. Favre reputedly did nothing to help with Aaron Rodgers' development, and will likely do nothing for Kellen Clemens'.

Just a hunch, but I think this might be the year that Favre's consecutive starts ends. Any team that thinks Damien Woody is the solution at right tackle, five career starts at the position, has serious issues with their offensive line. Or, to put it another way, the Jets feel that a lineman that lost his job in Detroit is the solution to their O-line woes. It doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence that either Mike Tannenbaum nor Eric Mangini really know what they're doing.

Sure he may have helped the Jets improve, but they're no better than a .500 club. They might eke out more than that, but only by the grace of playing the NFC West clubs.

It's not the decision I expected him to make, considering - he will have to face New England twice, and San Diego, and to get to the Super Bowl he has to believe that the team around him in New York has to be able to get by the Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Steelers, and Jaguars - all teams, that even with Favre added to New York, are still better than the Jets. That doesn't even take into account the Titans, Browns, Broncos, and Bengals - all teams that are probably better than the Favre-Jets.

Is it just me, or is anyone else envisioning Joe Namath in a Rams uniform, or Johnny Unitas in a Chargers uni?