The coaches they are a changin'

Well, we've already seen Eric Mangini (Jets), Rod Marinelli (Lions), Romeo Crennel (Browns), and Mike Shanahan (Broncos) get their walking papers. There are other coaches that shouldn't be resting easy today, including; Jim Haslett (Rams), Herm Edwards (Chiefs), Marvin Lewis (Bengals) and, while I don't expect it, I wouldn't be surprised if there were a change in New Orleans at the expense of Sean Payton or one in Dallas at the expense of Wade Phillips. We already know that there will be changes in Seattle, and while it would surprise me, I think Jacksonville might consider a change. That's at least ten potential coaching changes in the offing.

Little more than 30 percent of the league's coaches could be collecting unemployment before this year's free-agent class has a chance to hit the market. I want to take a moment to go through each of the above and address some of the issues...

I'm not going to address Seattle as Mike Holmgren is leaving of his own accord, so let's start with Mike Shanahan. I've always felt that Shanahan was one of the league's more overrated coaches. I will give him credit for creating and running an offensive scheme that could probably make me a 1000 yard rusher in the NFL - and I'm a broken down 38-year old with bad ankles. However, for all his offensive genius, he's regularly missed in his search for the heir apparent to John Elway (consider, Bill Belichick, traditionally considered a keen defensive mind, has already had two quarterbacks perform up to snuff after Drew Bledsoe, then the best quarterback in franchise history, went down. Shanahan is on his third since Elway, the last two are journeyman back-ups, and the jury is still out on the current one).

A lot of people are surprised by the Shanahan firing. I'm not. Since Elway's retirement, Shanahan has had ten seasons of which he only had four seasons of more than nine wins. In his four seasons with Elway he had only one that had fewer than 12 wins. Even with the one 8-8 season in 1995, Shanhan averaged 12 wins per season with Elway as his quarterback. Since Elway's retirement Shanahan has averaged 9 wins per season and eight per season for the last three.

The team was in command of its destiny until it lost four of its last six, including losses to the moribund division rival Raiders, and the struggling Bills. Two winnable games that would have made the final game against the Chargers moot.

In Kansas City, Herm Edwards' fate is held in the hands of whoever replaces long-time president Carl Peterson. If I were a betting man, I would say his days in KC are done. I like Edwards but feel he has some shortcomings as a head coach. He seems to make bad decisions in critical pressure situations, which is what lost him the job in New York. My guess is that he returns to a coordinator position.

In the Meadowlands Brett Favre was the coach-killer. Honestly, as little as I like Eric Mangini, that late season collapse should have signaled the end of Mike Tannenbaum who saddled Mangini with Favre.

The reasoning for dropping Mangini who had two winning seasons in his three years there was that Tannenbaum gave Mangini a revamped offensive line, a former MVP at signal caller, and a beast in the middle on defense - never mind that the collapse can almost wholly be laid at the feet of Favre, Tannenbaum's hand-picked savior of the franchise, or that the quarterback they cut in favor of Favre arguably had an MVP-type season, or that the beast of a nose-tackle wasn't fit enough to stay on the field and be effective in the fourth quarter.

So Mangini is looking for work. If he can't land a head coaching job, it should be interesting to see if anyone will take him on in some capacity. My guess is that Spygate burned a lot of bridges for him.

Rod Marinelli was the beneficiary of Matt Millen's handiwork finally coming to full fruition. Marinelli may or may not be a good coach, but getting stuck with Matt Millen's picks, it's hard to tell.

Crennel's undoing was having a locker room full of really talented guys that couldn't figure out what it took to win, and Jim Haslett - well, Haslett had a couple of issues working against him, not the least of which was that the Rams are just plain bad.

Also a problem for Haslett - the double standard in the application of the Rooney Rule.

Mid season the Rams wanted to give Haslett an incentive laden contract. If he met the incentives, he came back as head coach, if he didn't, then it was at the discretion of the Rams. The NFL decided, as Haslett was an interim head coach, that the provisions were in violation of the Rooney rule.

Here are my problems with that -

The spirit of the rule was that it open up interview opportunities for minority coaching candidates. The 49ers were allowed to sign their interim head coach, Mike Singletary, to an extension without having to interview anybody - so, in essence, Norm Chow, Romeo Crennel, and possibly soon to be unemployed Herm Edwards, and Marvin Lewis had no chance to interview for the HC position in San Francisco. Not to mention the obvious inequity in regards to the way the league handled two coaches in the exact same position based solely on the color of their skin.

Also, I fail to see how what the Rams did is significantly different to what the Cowboys did in signing their offensive coordinator to a contract stipulating that he becomes head coach when Wade Phillips leaves, or the fact that a similar contract exists in Seattle between the Seahawks and Jim Mora, Jr.

In essence, Haslett got screwed because the NFL decided to apply the Rooney Rule capriciously.

In Cincy I expect that Lewis will be gone after six turmoil-filled seasons during which he averaged fewer than seven wins per season, and broke the eight-win barrier only once. Hailed as a defensive guru, only once - this past season - were his defenses in Cincy ranked higher than 20th, and at 16th, they were barely in the top half of the league. The average rank for his defenses since getting the job - 23rd.

Life

Thanks to the Seattle Seahawks, the Patriots still have life in regards to the playoffs. The Jets, less so.

New England handled business in The Razor with a thorough dismantling of the NFC West champion Cardinals in every phase of the game. Any euphemism you can think of to describe this game, it's what the Pats did to the warm weather team that hasn't played a game in the snow in two and a half decades.

Matt Cassel outplayed Kurt Warner, Jabar Gaffney pretty much outplayed Larry Fitzgerald, hell, Cassel, Sammy Morris, and Lamont Jordan all put up better rushing stats than any running back on Arizona's roster.

Mike Wright and Jarvis Green did something rare this season - put pressure, regularly, on the Cardinals signal callers. Even wide receiver Matthew Slater got into the act while playing safety, springing Brandon Merriweather free on a blitz.

It was a good win for the Patriots who needed it, and a bad loss for a team looking to make some noise in the post season.

Looking at the rest of the AFC East still alive for the playoffs - the second life of Brett Favre is paling in comparison to that of Chad Pennington. If Eric Mangini doesn't do something drastic, the Dolphins will almost definitely be the AFC East champs next weekend.

One quick thought on that -

There's a very strong possibility that the Pats will go 11-5 and miss the playoffs. If that happens, so be it - it has already been a better season than I could possibly have imagined given the litany of season ending injuries to the likes of Tom Brady, Rodney Harrison, Laurence Maroney, Tedy Bruschi, and others on the Pats roster. It is also reassuring for next year.

There will be a lot made about how the rest of the AFC East has closed the gap, pointing to the records - and they have indeed closed the gap, but I don't think that either the Jets or 'Phins split with the Pats if New England has a healthy Tom Brady.

This is what I believe in regards to the AFC East -

Chad Pennington has helped the Dolphins close the gap significantly more than Brett Favre has.

I think the end of the season Brett Favre is more likely what we will see for the majority of next season than the beginning of this past season Brett Favre. The tank is running on empty. At best, he has eight good games left in him. It would be nice if one of them came next weekend.

The injuries to the Pats this year could be a blessing in disguise, as it will make competition at linebacker and defensive back much more fierce next season. I expect more from the defense next season, and also believe that the Pats brain trust will address that side of the ball in the draft.

I'm not convinced Scott Pioli is going anywhere, but there will be a lot of rumors about where he's going to end up.

I do think Josh McDaniels is going somewhere, but I don't know if he's ready to run his own show yet.

One last note - Detroit is one game away from a perfect season. I'm rooting for the Packers next weekend.

Braincramp and other things...

Just some quick thoughts on this past weekend's NFL games...

Watched the Bills-Jets game and could only come to the conclusion that the Bills of September were an illusion. Yes, I know that their starting quarterback is out, as is Aaron Schobel, their best defensive player. That doesn't excuse the Bills coaches who called for a pass with two minutes left. The coaches that called for a pass with two minutes left when their running backs were ripping off five to six yards a carry. Perish the thought that they protect the ball and possibly have to put the game in the hands of their defense because they had to punt the ball with about a minute to go. No, call a passing play and turn the ball over.

Boneheads.

The Raiders have set a mark for futility that not even the pitiful Lions have been able to achieve. With their loss to the Patriots, Oakland has become the first team in the history of the NFL to lose at least 11 games in six consecutive seasons. Barring a major overhaul of the organization, starting with Uncle Al, this is not a team that looks like they have an opportunity to win more than five games next season.

Speaking of the Lions, with their loss to the Colts, they're only two steps away from immortality. A bowl of gumbo, and a block of cheese, so to speak, with games left against two talented squads where players will be playing desperately for their jobs over the next two weeks. The Lions will be playing solely to avoid becoming the first 16 loss team in the history of the NFL.

With yesterday's win, the Pats can finish no worse than .500. The last time a New England team lost more than eight in a season was in 2000 when the team won only five games.

The offense was firing on all cylinders at the beginning of the game with Matt Cassel throwing for four touchdowns and three other players reaching the endzone as the Patriots rang up 487 yards on offense and a total of 663 (including special teams). Unfortunately, were the Pats playing a better offensive team, this still could have been a close game despite the 47 points scored by the Pats.

The messiness that is the Raiders netted 545 combined yards against the Pats. Part of the reason why I think that if the playoffs are in the cards for New England, they'll be folding early.

As for the Pats playoff chances...

They got some help from the Steelers who dropped the Ravens in Baltimore. Currently the Ravens, Jets, Pats, and Dolphins are all tied at 9-5 with the Ravens holding the tie-breakers for the last wild card slot. Currently the standings look like this -

Jets - AFC East champ

Ravens - Wild Card
'Phins
Pats

To get in the Pats need to win out and get help from any number of places - to win the East, they need Miami to lose to Kansas City, and then win against the Jets, or for the Jets to lose to the Seahawks and then win against Miami. To get the wild card, the team still needs to win out with both the Ravens and one of the in-division foes to drop a game as before. Even though the Ravens have the toughest remaining schedule with the Cowboys and Jaguars still on the docket, I just don't see them losing either game.

If this is the end of the road for the Patriots this season, so be it.

With additional injuries to Gary Guyton and Matt Light this week, their job has become a lot tougher.

As for Cassel - he gave an impressive performance, given his situation, and the weather. I'm sure his dad would have been proud.

War of Attrition

It was an ugly win, but I'll take it.

The New England Patriots are tied atop the AFC East with the Jets and Dolphins after a much tougher game against the Seattle Seahawks than almost anyone could have predicted. The team's struggles from last week continued as the offensive line often seemed over-matched by a mediocre defense, Matt Cassel returned to some of the poor decisions that plagued him in the first couple of weeks, and the defense, while it did some good things, it continued its deterioration.

The line and the quarterback both struggled with the blitz. Cassel sometimes tried to run when he should have just loaded up and overthrown a receiver on the sideline. Moss continues to be plagued by the dropsies - a season long problem (and don't tell me that one was good defense; the ball hit Moss on the hands and ricocheted off his chest without the defender ever touching it on the one play). The defense made Seattle's offense look like the second coming of the Greatest Show on Turf on the Seahawks' first two drives.

Injuries haven't helped this season, but they still have to go out and perform.

I want to see the Patriots in the post season, make no mistake about it. That doesn't mean I believe they can actually do anything in the post season should they get there.

Admittedly, the fact that they are still in position to possibly win the division given what this team has gone through is nothing short of amazing.

The team played their first game without Kevin Faulk, Stephen Neal, Nick Kazcur, and largely without Tom Brady. Ty Warren has missed games and when he's played it's been obvious that he's injured.

The list of regulars that have missed multiple games, or have been lost for the season -

Neal
Kaczur
Brady
Warren
Rodney Harrison
Adalius Thomas
Laurence Maroney
Lamont Jordan
Sammy Morris
Ben Watson
Lewis Sanders
Kelley Washington

And other players who have missed at least one game, or a significant chunk of a game...

Tedy Bruschi
Vince Wilfork
Wes Welker
Pierre Woods

I'm sure I've missed somebody in all that mess, but this is what it comes down to - the team has played significant portions of the season without:

• The starting right side of the offensive line
• The starting quarterback
• The leader of their defensive backfield
• Half the starting linebacking corps
• The top three half backs on the depth chart
  

All of that and 8-5 with three weeks to go. No way I would have believed it if someone had told me at the beginning of the season that the team would have experienced this sort of attrition.

Changing expectations

Realistically, it doesn't behoove anyone to make snap decisions based on the first two weeks, but some pretty significant stuff has happened in the NFL's first two weeks - things with season-long implications. Some of the things even predate week one...

Shawn Merriman - let's face a couple of basic facts here...Merriman changes the complexion of the Chargers defense, and so far that defense hasn't been very good. Merriman avoided doctor recommendations to get his knee operated on at the end of last season, choosing instead to rest the knee. Then, once again ignoring the doctors who told him not to play on the screwed up ligaments, chose to play in the first game of the season. With a sub-par Merriman in game one and with his understudy in game two, the Chargers have given up 65 points through the first two games - the most in the AFC. Fourteen more than Miami, 25 more than Kansas City. The only teams that have given up more? The Lions (82), Rams (79), and Seahawks (67). Neither the Lions nor the Rams were expected to compete by anybody, and people are having serious doubts around now about Seattle.

Sure, general manager AJ Smith said all the right things about Merriman's understudy, intimating that they expected no drop off in play, but if that player were really as good as Merriman, wouldn't he be starting opposite Merriman, not playing behind him? If the Chargers cannot get it together on defense, they will be watching the playoffs from their living rooms, not from the sidelines. Period.

Vince Young - Young is as much an emotional and mental description as it is his name. I give the Titans a better chance with Kerry Collins guiding the attack than Vince Young. I don't really believe that Young beat him out in camp so much as the team was committed to going with their first round draft pick. I've said this before about Young and I will say it again - he's a talented athlete, but a mediocre quarterback. He's not committed to the game and that's the last sort of person you want leading your team in a sport where people are expected to sacrifice their bodies. To paraphrase Bull Durham, he has a million dollar arm, but a ten cent head.

My guess is that Young is the second coming of Todd Marinovich, although Akili Smith might be a better comparison. Akili Smith vaulted into the first round of the draft when he had a great senior season in college. Before that, he was on no one's radar. What people forget about Young is that he wasn't even in the discussion in regards to the top of the draft until Texas qualified for the Bowl game, and wasn't mentioned as a top five pick until their Bowl win.

I suspect that when his contract ends, he either goes away completely, or bounces around the league as a back-up for a couple of seasons before fading away.

Jeff Saturday - I'm condensing this one. Saturday, the Colt's long-time center, is one of...well, most of the Colts starting line which is injured. The Colts have struggled mightily on offense through the first couple of weekends without their vaunted line. Fortunately for the Colts, no one is looking like they're ready to just take control of the division.

Osi Umenyiora - So far the pre-season loss of Umenyiora for the season hasn't affected the Giants on defense, but his loss has a definitive impact on the team's depth along the defensive line, one of the team's definitive strengths and a reason why they won last year's Super Bowl. It might never come back to bite them as long as the team remains reasonably healthy along the defensive line. Not unrealistic. And right now this team has the best defense in the NFC East. Given that and their running game, they will compete for the playoffs.

Yes, I predicted that the Eagles and Cowboys to finish ahead of New York, but I also said I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants ended up at the top of the heap at the end of the season. With Umenyiora in the line-up the team can afford injuries to the likes of Justin Tuck. Without Osi, the Giants have to hope that the back-ups are up to snuff - otherwise that changes the landscape in the East. (My prediction assumes that an injury will happen).

Tom Brady - This injury has changed two things...the Pats offensive philosophy (2001 revival on our hands here), and the Patriots as Super Bowl favorites. Yes, this makes life harder for the Pats, but all the favorites in the AFC are struggling early while the Pats work their way through a cupcake schedule that is likely to see them go into their bye at 3-0, and meet up with the Colts with anything from a 5-2 to a 7-0 record. Not unrealistic given the fact that the prolific Denver offense has not yet been challenged by a quality defense and that neither the Chargers nor the Broncos has been able to stop anyone.

Can Matt Cassel take the team all the way? That's the great unknown in regards to the Patriots.

Seattle's receiving corps - Put simply, Seattle has lost their top receivers. Their offense has been the third worst in the NFC. Coupled with the team's defensive problems, Seattle could well be screwed.

That Deion Branch trade/signing is looking pretty weak now, isn't it?

While the jury is still out on Brandon Meriweather, the player the Pats got, in essence for trading Branch to Seattle, Branch himself has not posted the numbers of the top receiver he believed himself to be. Currently, Branch is missing games due to a knee injury, the same Branch that the Seahawks desperately need right now. The same Branch who has started 16 games only once in his career.

Am I the only one who saw this coming?

Live from the Outer Banks, iiiiiittttt'sss the Aaaaannnngry Fan

So, I've been in Corolla, NC, for the last week (I'm still there as I type this on the porch of the beach house the family has rented). It's been a little difficult to give a rat's ass about a whole lot going on when I've been sitting in breezy low 80 degree temperatures. It has also been kind of hard to focus with my two daughters and four nieces tearing around the house like miniature banshees. So I have largely been spending days at the beach cranking through Dennis Lehane novels.

Some quick thoughts and then my pre-season take on the NFC West...

Is it just me, or has there been a domino effect on the bullpen every time Clay Buchholz has pitched lately? He struggles, they go to the pen, and they struggle. It's almost as though they're taking their cue from whoever the starter is and if the starter sucks it up, so too does the pen. I haven't looked closely to see if this is true, but it certainly feels like this is what's been happening lately. It's probably for the best that Buchholz was sent back down.

If the Sox can't come up with a viable replacement for Buchholz, a guy who can go at least .500 in his place, the Sox are going to lose out on the division, and likely the playoffs, as the AL Central looks like it has a pretty strong chance of sending two teams to the big dance.

Carl Pavano is expected to start for the Yankees on Saturday. Stick a fork in 'em. Right now this is their rotation -

Mike Mussina
Carl Pavano
Darrell Rasner
Andy Pettitte
Sid Ponson

That's not only not a championship rotation, it's a rotation that's barely average. Only one of the starters gives up fewer than four runs per nine innings pitched, and that's Mike Mussina. Not exactly known for coming up big in the late season pressure games (sure, he hasn't been awful in the post-season, but 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA is hardly dominating, or impressive).

Now onto the West...

This is a hard one to call because, like the AFC West, the NFC West is rife with mediocre and bad teams. It's hard to ascribe any separation between the Rams and the 49ers, as well as the Cardinals and the Seahawks. The two duos definitively make up the top and the bottom of a bad division. One of the teams might surprise, it's always possible, but this is how I see it...

4. 49ers - I think this is a team going backwards. They appear to lack a true NFL quality quarterback, instead having three guys that would be back-ups on other teams. Frank Gore is solid at running back, but the passing game and the defense are suspect. I have a hard time seeing this team improve on the five wins of a year ago, and suspect that they could slip to a four win season easily.

3. Rams - Like San Fran, I'm not convinced of this team's improvement. However, with contests against the rival 49ers (twice), the Jets, Dolphins, Falcons, and Bills, there's a chance this team could eke out five or six wins, although, I suspect at least one loss to the Niners, and possible losses to the Jets and Bills. I wouldn't be surprised by three wins, but I would be by any more than six.

2. Seahawks - I haven't been thrilled by this team's personnel moves since the Super Bowl loss to the Steelers. I think they overpaid for Deion Branch, an oft-injured, undersized receiver who got it into his head, and into the Seahawks' heads that he was better than really is. They let one of the better offensive linemen on the team walk away. They signed TJ Duckett, who I feel has never quite lived up to what little hype has surrounded him. The only signing I liked was Julius Jones. While they are clearly one of the most consistent teams in the NFC, I believe time has chipped away at their hold on the division and that they may be in danger of missing the post-season this year. All that said, I'm looking at nine wins, maybe ten for this team.

1. Cardinals - I'm buying into the hype. The last time I did, I got burned, but I'm going to ride with it again. Knowing the history of this team, they could easily wind up at the bottom of the division, but I think they're poised for a playoff run. They have a young, high-octane offense in place that has shown signs of life the last two seasons. With the offensive weapons in place, the Arizona brain trust has concentrated on their defensive shortcomings, and the buzz out of the desert is that the D could be pretty good this year. If that happens, this could be a team that makes some noise. They'll have their work cut out for them with all the teams from the East on their schedule, but I can see them stealing one here and there to fight their way to around ten wins.

Weekend observations

Mister Freeze...

I love games played in the snow. I loved 'em when I played in high school. I loved 'em when I coached. I love watching them.

I have an appreciation for the difficulty that's added by playing on a slick, hard field - when the cold hurts your hands, and the idea of hitting one's opponent can become distasteful, because it inflicts as much pain on the tackler as the tackled. The game becomes a contest of wills.

That game in Green Bay was a thing of beauty. After a shaky start, putting the ball on the ground twice, undrafted free-agent running back Ryan Grant imposed his will on the Seahawks, accounting for close to half of the Pack's 408 total yards (201).

As much as Brett Favre's arm got the Pack to the game, Grant's legs were responsible for getting them through the game.

Punched in the Mouth

The Jaguars were the team that was supposed to give the Patriots fits.

Their top ranked (AFC) running game was supposed to keep Tom Brady on the sideline, and take advantage of the Patriots AARP members manning the linebacker position. They were supposed to stuff the run, take away Randy Moss and make the Patriots win with Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, and Ben Watson.

Instead, Laurence Maroney became the Beast from the AFC East, rushing for more yardage (122) than the entire Jaguars team combined (80) and more combined yardage (162) than the Chargers' one-two punch of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor combined (129).

Even as a Pats fan, had anyone told me that Maroney would have almost as much yardage on the ground as the Jags backs had combined, I would have scoffed. Hell...combined yardage for the Pats runners v. the Jags? 207 to 129. And that was the place on offense that the Jags were supposed to have a distinct advantage.

I guess as the saying goes, on any given Sunday...

Upset Sunday...

I'm not going to dwell on the early game. The Colts played poorly on defense, struggling to beat a Chargers team that was lining up players by the end of the game that make one think more of a fourth pre-season game than of a playoff game. And the Chargers won in spite of some mind-numbingly, bone-jarringly stupid play calling on offense.

Even with the win, that game gave me no confidence that Norv Turner can bring this team a championship. The only reason they got out of Indy alive is that the Chargers defense was playing out of their collective minds down the stretch.

Texas Toast (or, The Mouths that Roared)...

Does anyone out there remember the "I love you, man," Bud Light commercials? Is it just me, or is that how Terrell Owens seemed in his postgame press conference? I can just hear Tony Romo right now..."No TO, you can't have any of my Bud Light...now go eat your popcorn."

Sincerity is not that man's forte. His defense of Tony Romo, while accurate (the Giants in the second half were beating the daylights out of Romo because the line just couldn't stop wave after wave of blue-jersied defenders), just came off as disingenuous.

And of course, the Dallas receivers just can't put their money where their exceedingly large mouths are...

Take, for instance, this tidbit from the postgame of their October match-up with the Patriots -

"If they make it to Arizona, we will see them again. Seriously, I'm not backing down from that statement," receiver Patrick Crayton said Monday, a day after a 48-27 loss to the Patriots.
Terrell Owens wasn't in the locker room Monday, but said after the game, "We'll see them down the road."

I guess they'll be in the stands?

Or how about TO's line that he'd be playing at a high level in this past Sunday's game during his interview with Deion Sanders? Four catches for 49 yards and one touchdown. During the regular season he averaged 5.4 catches per game for 90.3 yards per game. I wonder how TO defines a "high level."

Texas Toast, part II...

Well, it already appears that Roger Clemens and his handlers are backing off providing any actual denials under oath. According to reports, the Rocket and his legal team won't commit to providing congress with a deposition before the hearing, with his lawyer, Rusty Hardin, claiming that it could interfere with civil case.

The implication here is that testifying under oath to congress wouldn't, or at least, that's what Hardin would have you believe. Hardin from the AP report -

"There has been absolutely no change in Roger's willingness and indeed desire to testify under oath before Congress in a public hearing at a date of the Oversight Committee's choosing," Hardin said in a statement. "Any suggestion that he or we are having any second thoughts about that is absolutely false. All other pre-appearance issues and scheduling we will discuss privately with the committee and do not think it is appropriate to discuss those matters publicly."

A deposition is testimony, under oath (which is why it's admissible as evidence in a court case). As such, what's the issue?

According to legal experts on ESPN, and cited in other reports, a deposition would give the Committee the opportunity to investigate Clemens' defense, and to prepare specific questions in order to discredit Clemens' defense, or to formulate specific questions to ask McNamee, who appears willing to tell the Committee everything.

Hardin can spin this anyway he likes, but it's just one more chink in Clemens' so called defense.

You are what you are

Those were the words of Bill Parcells.

He was once asked about his team. The gist of the question was along the lines of "do you think your team is better than its record," or "do you feel like you got away with one?" Or some other such inquiry. His message - if your team is 8-8, then you're 8-8...no matter how much better you might try to make others believe you are.

The Chargers are competing for the AFC Championship.

The Patriots are 17-0 (that number sound familiar '72 'Phins?...'Cause in every math class I was ever in, 19 is greater than 17...get over it).

The Colts are officially no longer the defending Super Bowl champs - the defense of their title officially ended on the carpet at the RCA Dome, dropping Peyton Manning's home playoff record to an uninspired 4-3.

The Seahawks are not a winter weather team. The Packers are.

Soon, I'll know what the Cowboys are and what the Giants are.

As the Divisional Round is just hours from wrapping up, with match-ups getting set for next week's Conference Championship, I, as a Patriots fan, am curious to see how the injury report is going to read for the Chargers. A lot of bodies were left on the field, as the Chargers closed out the Colts without Philip Rivers or LaDanian Tomlinson lining up.

More amazing? That the Chargers won in spite of some poor offensive calls by Norv Turner. With approximately a minute and a half left on the clock, third and five, with the Colts D stacked against the run, Turner called for a run in the middle. Colts got the ball back with 90 seconds on the clock and one timeout.

Fortunately, it didn't come back to haunt the Chargers as San Diego's defense came up big - hitting Reggie Wayne so hard on third and long that it forced the Colts to burn the timeout due to an injury stoppage.

Pretender or Contender - NFC style

Who are the legit heirs to the NFC throne? Will we see the Cheeseheads melting in the Arizona sun, or will the West be Won by the Gauchos in Dallas? What are the chances that a Jolly Roger will fly high over the Arizona desert, or that an ocean bird from the Pacific Northwest will migrate to the Cardinals' nest?

One thing to note - with teams like the Seahawks struggling to separate themselves from the lesser teams in the weak Western division until the last couple of weeks, it's hard to completely buy into some of the NFC teams as legitimate contenders.

The contenders...

Dallas Cowboys (13-2) - Quite simply, they are the best the NFC has to offer. The number one NFC offense (second only in the league to the Patriots), and the sixth best NFC defense in regards to opponents scoring (12th overall). If a team can take advantage of the Dallas D, the team can be had. Through their first eight games the team's margin of victory was an average of 15.8 points per game with only three of those victories coming by a margin of less than 17 points. Since the halfway point that average margin of victory has dropped to 8.8 points per game with only one contest in which the margin was larger than 17 points.

That said, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Big D, and it's going to be a tough, albeit not impossible, task to knock the Cowboys off in their own backyard.

Green Bay Packers (12-3) - The game against the Bears was not exactly reassuring, but I'm willing to give a team as young as the Packers a mulligan. The big problem for Green Bay is that they will have to go through Dallas to get to Arizona, and I'm not convinced that Brett Favre's history in that stadium isn't in his head.

In their earlier match-up this season Favre went away from the game-plan that had the Pack undefeated going into Dallas. If he isn't trying to force the deep ball on every play and hit the homerun, so to speak, then I give the Packers a fair chance at the upset. If Favre makes the unforced errors of the first match-up, then Cheesehead Nation will not be invading the Desert come January.

Washington Redskins (8-7) - I know that Washington is not in yet, but they control their own fate and are playing their best football of the season. I feel uncertain about putting this team here, but the fact is that they are playing smart, disciplined football right now - and they are playing with a purpose - and that makes them dangerous.

Also, they play in what appears to be the toughest division in the NFC, playing against playoff teams and hopefuls in Dallas, New England, New York (Giants), Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. Half of the 'Skins' games have been against opponents that either are headed to, or still have a chance to head to the playoffs. Sure, they're 2-5 against these teams (with the final match-up against Dallas on the docket for this weekend), but take away the drubbing at the hands of the Patriots, an the average margin of victory for those opponents in those four games is 4.25 points per game. In the last two games, both victories over teams contending for spots (the Giants, and the Vikings), the margin was 11.5 points per game - a 15.75 point swing in favor of the Redskins.

They have a long hard road ahead - assuming they can close out with a win over Dallas and seal their playoff fate, they will have to play three games on the road no matter what due to being the sixth and final entry from the NFC.

The pretenders -

New York Giants (10-5) - They pulled off an emotional victory over a mediocre Buffalo Bills team last week and are on the road next week at Tampa Bay. A lot will be made about Tampa's stifling defense - currently tied for the top rank with the Patriots giving up only 15.9 points per game. I think that, healthy, New York can get by Tampa - and even unhealthy I give them a chance.

New York's biggest liability is Eli Manning - not only do they not know what quarterback they're going to get from game to game, sometimes his Jeckyll and Hyde routine goes quarter to quarter. While I think they might squeak by with one road win, I'm not convinced that a team that hasn't strung together more than two wins in a row for half a season will be able to come away with three straight on the road to get to the big game.

Seattle Seahawks (10-5) - After their opener against Tampa (whom they beat), The only post-season contenders this team has played have been Pittsburgh and Cleveland. They lost to both, to go with losses to Arizona, Carolina, and New Orleans.

Consider the following as the Seahawks will likely be hosting the Redskins next week - Technically, this team has not beaten a single team with a winning record (the Bucs were 0-0 at the time of their game7-8 Eagles. I have no reason to believe that the Seahawks are going to start defeating opponents with winning records now.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6) - People are trying to dub this as the sleeper team. They're wrong.

This is the so called sleeper team because of their sterling defense, tied with the Patriots for first in the league, giving up on 15.9 points per game. Let's take a closer look at how that defense has done against quality offenses - the Bucs have faced four potential playoff teams and have gone 1-3 against them, losing to the 11th ranked Seahawks offense, the 3rd ranked Colts O, and the 5th ranked Jaguars offense, winning only against the 19th ranked Redskins.

As a matter of fact, the only offenses in the top 20 that the Bucs beat have been the 10th ranked Saints, 9th ranked Cardinals, and the 19th ranked Skins. The Saints and Cards are both in the bottom third of the league in defense. Otherwise, six of the nine wins that the defense forged its reputation against have had an average offensive ranking of around 26th overall - or against teams averaging only about 16 points per game (this includes two games against the 31st ranked scoring team in the league).

By contrast, the Patriots have beaten four division winners (Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Steelers), and two (likely) wild card entrants (Browns, Redskins). Their wins have come over teams whose offenses rank 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, 13th, 17th and 19th. The average offensive ranking of the Patriots opponents is about 18th overall, or an average of around 20.7 points per game.

The point here is that the Bucs are holding opponents to 0.1 points per game below their aggregate average against the rest of the league, so in theory a team that averages 27 points per game is probably still going to score about 27 points against the them. Not a great statistic for a team trying to make headway into the post season.

The proverbial monkey wrench...

Minnesota Vikings (8-7) - The Vikings are in if they win and the 'Skins lose. This is not a team I can see going deep into the playoffs. They are a team that can screw up someone else shot at the title. They are physical and tough against the run, and have bruising runners who get into the second level and punish an opponents secondary.

If nothing else, they can make a healthy team unhealthy for their next opponent.

A quick look at the first two weeks...

But first...is it just me, or are the Sons of Tito trying their hardest to make this feel a lot like 1978?

Now...on to pigskin matters...

I'll comment only on what I have seen enough of to be able to comment on...

The Jets have played precisely a quarter and a half of good football out of eight total quarters played. They might want to consider worrying about playing football rather than what's happening on an opponent's sideline, or what an opponent's snap count is - as it seems that simulating Baltimore's snap count didn't help NY win.

Don't be surprised if other coaches through the course of this season accuse Mangini's team of cheating. There are things that all coaches do that are against the rules, but it's an unwritten rule as a coach that you don't talk about these things. Mangini crossed a line that may even make it difficult, not impossible, just difficult for him to garner another coaching position in the league. Don't believe it, check out Peter King -

"If he wasn't before, Mangini's dead to Belichick now," says one head coach.
"What Mangini did is a disgrace. He wouldn't be a coach in this league without
Bill, and this is how he repays him."...It's widely believed that New England
has stolen signals in this manner for years, but officials from various clubs
acknowledge that the Pats are not the only team that does it - PK, Sports
Illustrated

This weekend they'll have a chance to climb out of the AFC East's cellar...as long as they can manage to beat the Dolphins.

I feel bad for Joey Harrington. I've seen chunks of the Falcons games and that offensive line would make Peyton Manning look bad, yet Bobby Petrino is blaming Harrington for the team's offensive woes. So instead of trying to fix the line for a reasonably mobile QB like Harrington, Petrino goes out and gets his old college QB, the less than sterling Byron Leftwich.

If Leftwich had issues behind the Jaguars line, he'll be toast in Atlanta. Hope you have your cemetery plot picked out Byron, it'll save time for your next of kin.

The Chargers are looking very mortal right now. They struggled against the Bears, really having to work to beat an offensively challenged Chicago squad, and then were absolutely thrashed by the Patriots. If there's anyone out there other than AJ Smith that believes Norv Turner can lead a team to a championship, please raise your hand. Anybody?

I've watched a fair amount of every team in the NFC East, and the only one that looks good is Dallas...and I don't really buy that they're going to do this consistently.

Other quick observations -

The Steelers look good, the Seahawks do not, nor do the Saints.

I think the jury is still out on the Colts. The Defense looks better than expected, but I want to see it against a real powerhouse before I really make a determination about how good Indy is on that side of the ball.

Conspicuously absent

My apologies for my recent absence. There were some recent electrical storms that have wreaked havoc with my Internet access here in Western Maryland. I am, however, back now...so, on with the NFC West (finally)...

Arizona Cardinals - Can Matt Leinart and the Cardinals offense progress and build off of last year? Last season Leinart showed flashes of why he was a top draft pick as a QB, often making something out of nothing behind a spotty offensive line. The team has the skill position players in place to make the jump to contender in a weak division, but has historically had issues at quarterback and along the line. If Leinart can stay upright and get the ball out to his big wide-outs, then they will have a chance every week.

St. Louis Rams - Can the front office get Marc Bulger in to camp in time to build off of last year's success? Last season, after several down seasons, the Rams challenged the Seahawks for the division title. Inconsistency plagued the team as they sometimes beat the tough opponents and struggled against the weak ones. However, the offense - led by Bulger and running back Stephen Jackson - clicked down the stretch. If either of those two cogs is not ready for the opener, then the Rams are starting the season with a handicap.

San Francisco 49ers - Can the revamped receiving corps have success? San Francisco made a quantum leap forward last year, showing life on offense. In order to bolster the roster, the 49ers brain-trust went out and got Darrell Jackson from the Seahawks and Ashley Lelie from Atlanta to revamp their receiver corps. If Jackson is healthy, he could still be a legitimate number one receiver. However, it should be a cause for concern that the Seahawks were willing to deal him within the division, and Lelie has been a bust his entire career. A receiver with number one sort of talent, Lelie has only occasionally shown the ability to live up to his potential.

Seattle Seahawks - Can they hold off the rest of the division? Last season the 9-7 Seahawks back-slid, barely finishing ahead of the 8-8 Rams and the 7-9 49ers one season after walking away with the division and going to the Super Bowl. There are a lot of ifs that need to be answered with this team in determining whether or not they can hold off the rest of the division - if Deion Branch can step it up and be a legitimate number one receiver in a system other than the Patriots (most scouts have him as the second receiver), if the revamped secondary can gel in training camp, if Shaun Alexander can fend off time and return to the form he had two seasons ago while avoiding injury. These are some of the questions the team needs to answer - and if the answers to any of these are "no," then it could be a very tough season for the team from the Emerald City.

Peter's Friends...

For all the moaning about the "mistake" the Patriots made in letting Deion Branch go in the trade, it is interesting that Peter King at Sports Illustrated had this to say in this week's Monday Morning Quarterback column -

"10. Seattle (10-8). Just a guess, but my feeling is the Seahawks would rather have the 22nd pick in the draft, plus the $7 million-a-year cap dollars it paid Deion Branch, back right now. Instead, New England sits there with two first-rounders, the rich getting richer, and Seattle is out of the draft business until late in the second round come April."

That's kind of a backhanded way of saying, "maybe we (the press) were wrong about Branch's impact."

Down to 181.5. aiming for 179 by next monday and 170 by the end of February.

Considering the results of last year's trades (Hanley Ramirez, Cla Merideth, etc.), I think it's wise of Theo Epstein to nix a trade with any team looking to plunder the Sox top prospects in order to unload an aging superstar with a bloated contract. I mean, the Sox don't really want to become the Yankees, do they?

I don't even really follow basketball, haven't in years. I look at the standings now and then, but there isn't really a team out there I root for. That being said, this year the Atlantic Conference in the East is bad - I mean really bad, like on a biblical level sort of bad. Currently the two best teams in the AC, New Jersey and Toronto are each a game under .500 with only 22 wins with less than half a season left to play. To put that in perspective, in the East alone Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Indiana, Washington, and Orlando all have better records.

In the West - Utah, Denver, Minnesota, Phoenix, The Lakers, The Clippers, Dallas, San Antonio and Houston all have better records. In a 30-team league, there are 15 teams with better winning percentages.

If division winners were not automatic locks to get into the playoffs, if playoff contenders were based on record alone it could be feasible that both teams could miss the playoffs as Golden State is only a half game behind the Nets and Raptors and Miami, Portland, and New Orleans are all within five games.

The Weigh In and poor sportsmanship...

Well, down to 185.5 in the contest - 7.5 pounds overall. And on to the playoffs...

It was one hell of a weekend - and the closest series of contests I can recall. And before I really get into it, let me say that none of the teams looked particularly sharp, but boy was it competitive.

Colts 15, Ravens 6

Neither team looked good on offense and eventually the Ravens just looked tired on defense when they needed to come up with the big stop. On the other hand, one has to wonder A) Where Peyton Manning has been for the playoffs and B) Where their run defense was during the season, because the return of one player should not have an impact on how the rest of the team tackles.

Saints 27, Eagles 24

The Cinderella story came to an end in Philadelphia pretty much when Deuce McAllister dragged the entire Eagles defense into the endzone from five yards out. Sure, the Eagles still had a chance - but when one player just wants it more than the 11 he's dragging...well that's just a statement.
McCallister against Urlacher is going to be compelling football next week.

Bears 27, Seahawks 24

There were times that Seattle's offensive play calling puzzled me, but not as much, when the game was on the line, taking out Grant Wistrom on a third and long in overtime when they needed a pass rush.

And the controversial one...

Patriots 24, Chargers 21

The Patriots did not play well, and they won this game. They were out rushed almost 3 to 1, the Pats had 18 first downs to San Diego's 21, overall New England garnered 25 fewer total yards and lost the time of possession battle. That being said, I'm hearing a lot about how the Chargers gave the game away - and they did make mistakes at crucial moments, however, Roosevelt Colvin's interception of Philip Rivers was not like the interceptions Brady tossed into the chests of the Chargers defenders. Colvin made a highlight reel play to force a turnover. Vrabel strip sacked Philip Rivers. Shawn Merriman was supposed to terrorize Brady all day - he got to him once.
All that said, I do agree with the following from Sports Illustrated's Paul Zimmerman, "Talk about dumb, out-of-control teams. The Chargers lost to the Patriots mainly because New England was more professional, i.e., they didn't play idiot ball, as San Diego did. I don't need to go into the litany of stoopids the Chargers were guilty of, the "attitude" penalties, head butts, bumps, grinds, shoves ... the dropped balls, the fumbles, all of which cost dearly. Simply unprofessional, which was kind of surprising for a team at this level.
"A big thing was made out of some Patriots imitating Shawne Merriman's Lights Out sack dance after the game. Merriman ran down Brady for a zero-yards pursuit sack in the fourth quarter, but aside from that, he was practically invisible. Hey, pal, if you're gonna turn a spotlight on yourself, be ready for its heat as well as its light."
Tomlinson, who by all accounts is one of the classiest players in the league has managed to come off as a petty, and sore loser, but he got really bone-headed yesterday when he made the following comment, "and what message do you want to send our kids?"
So - Tomlinson would condone an 8 year old kid in a peewee game doing a sack dance? Sorry, but that's not really cool. Not to mention that a choreographed sack dance isn't a spontaneous celebration of a big play, it is meant to set a player apart and, no matter what anyone says, is taunting the other team. This doesn't take into account Tomlinson's use of setting an example for the kids as his defense for a teammate who was caught using steroids (and for the Merriman defenders, look up what he was caught using - the likelihood of that substance tainting a supplement that the chances of it tainting the supplement are virtually nil). Great example for the kids there, huh?
Do I condone the Patriots actions? No. But do I have a problem with someone pointing out how classy he is while defending a teammate's dance and refusing to shake hands after a game? Yes. You're football players, not Bob Fosse. You want to dance and not get mocked? Try out for the Met.

This week's weigh in and the playoffs...

Today I weighed 186, up one pound from my Flu-inspired low of 185. But down 7 pounds from my starting weight for the contest (and 8 overall).

Onto the weekend -

Game 1
The Chiefs looked like the team that didn't belong, and the Colts didn't look much better in the first game of the weekend. Everyone knew the Chiefs were going to try to ram the ball down the throats of the Colts defense - and when they went nowhere on the first two series, they should have come out on the third series trying to use the pass to set up the run.
As bad as the Chiefs were (no first downs by the offense in the first half), they were down by only 9 at the half because their defense was giving them every chance to stay in the game.
The Ravens will be a much tougher game for the Colts, and if the Colts play like they did in Indy, then this is the weekend that Indianapolis will go home and begin preparing for next season.

Game 2
This was the NFC consolation match between two teams that are unlikely to make any real noise in the post-season. Seattle's defenders played over their heads, and only has a chance this weekend because Chicago's quarterback situation is somewhere around DEFCON 2.
As for the Cowboys, a lot of uncertainty surrounds the team going into an offseason made possible by Tony Romo's Buckner-esque gaff on what could have been the game winning field goal.
Dallas offseason issues include: the future of Bill Parcells (rumors are that in spite of the public face put on it, that Jerry Jones doesn't really want Parcells back - could he end up in Miami? As GM of the Giants?); the future of T.O. (who, from indications, is likely to be back); what will the psychological impact of the gaffe be on Romo?; Will the team release Bledsoe, will he retire - he has publicly stated that he will not be a back up, and that he would retire first. These are not the issues of a team on the rise.

Game 3
Ah - the Beligini Bowl. Surprisingly, Eric Mangini came into Foxboro with the same game plan he used the last time the two teams met. Give the Patriots a second chance to beat a scheme, and chances are they will.
The Jets played a tough, competitive game for three quarters before making the mistakes the changed a close game into a blow-out. With the exception of a Corey Dillon fumble early in the game, the Patriots played with a ruthless efficiency, racking up 158 yards on 38 carries, for a 4.2 yard per rush average, while giving up only 70 on the ground to the Jets.
With the improvement of the Jets, and the Bills showing life late in the season, the AFC is looking to shape up as a very difficult division next season.
Right now, however, the Patriots are moving on to a showdown with the NFL's best team this season - the Chargers.

Game 4
The Limp-home at the Linc. The Eagles got it done agains the divisional rival Giants, but it wasn't pretty. The two teams combined for three fumbles (none turnovers), 1 interception, and virtually no run defense as the Giants racked up 151 of their 305 total yards on the ground for a 4.9 yard average (they averaged 5.5 per pass play), and the Eagles totalled 185 of their 323 yards on the ground, an average of 6 yards oer rush (as opposed to an electrifying 4.2 per pass play).
As the Eagles move on to a match-up in the Big Easy, the Giants limp home with questions about their coach, a retiring star, and a quarterback that looks better suited to be a career back-up rather than starter.

More to come...

Parity rears its ugly head again...

With the salary cap the NFL wanted to create a system in which there were no true dynasties, no teams that would dominate the NFL for stretches like the Steelers and Dolphins did in the 70's and the 49ers did in the 80's, and, to a lesser extent, the Cowboys in the 90's. The corporate minds wanted to create an atmosphere where worst to first was not out of the question.
Last night the San Francisco 49ers (now 6-8) inched closer to making that resemble their story by ringing up 21 points on the now 8-6 Seahawks. If Seattle should lose their final two games (after last night's performance it's a distinct possibility), and the 'Niners win their last two, then the San Fran will have changed their fortunes...somewhat. They weren't last in the division last year, but they weren't far off of that. And an 8-8 record would launch them into the vast canyon of mediocrity that will be the four through six seeds of the NFC playoffs.

More on what has happened in regards to the dying dynasty later.