Showing posts with label Trade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trade. Show all posts

Friday, April 03, 2009

An absolute mugging

My initial thought was to describe the Bears trade for Jay Cutler an absolute mugging - the bears traded Kyle Orton and this year's first and third round picks as well as next year's first rounder for Cutler and Denver's fifth round pick this year. My wife pointed out that when one is mugged that the muggee doesn't look at the mugger and say, "here, take my credit cards and cash, and I'll put up some token resistance by making a half-hearted effort to scratch your face."

She's right. No. This was more like Denver telling the Bears to bend over and drop trou, and the Bears saying back, "with Vaseline or without?"

This was an absolute violation of the Catholic priest variety.

As mediocre as Kyle Orton has been, Cutler hasn't actually been significantly better. A quick look -

In three seasons Orton has played in 33 games while Cutler has played in 37 games. I will give Orton's actual numbers and his 37 game projections...

Yes, Cutler has a better completion percentage and put up more yardage - 62.5 percent and 9024 yards to Orton's 55.3 and 5319 yards (5964 over 37 games), but Cutler has also been throwing to the likes of Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Javon Walker and Rod Smith. Orton's two best targets in the last three seasons would both be picked after any one of the four above - Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian. The trade will answer the question as to whether the receivers made the QB or vice versa with these two.

But let's look at some other telling stats...

Cutler has thrown 37 interceptions in 37 games, Orton has had 27 in 33. Cutler has an average of 11.8 yards per catch to Orton's 10.5.

But here are some of the really important ones - Orton is 21-12 with and was instrumental in getting the Bears to at least one playoff appearance. Cutler is 17-20 with no playoff appearances. Cutler's best season was 8-8. Orton's? 10-5.

Considering that Cutler was drafted 11th and Orton 106th, I would expect more from Cutler than this.

And if I were a Bears fan this morning, I would be buying something to sooth that burning feeling coming from my sphincter.

Thursday, April 02, 2009

Losing the game of chicken...

or Beware the Idiots of March...

A little translation of professional athlete speak - I want the team to show it's committed to me. Translation - I want to see more money in a new contract.

From New York Newsday -

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported on the night of March 15, the day after Josh McDaniels met with [Jay] Cutler and his agent, Bus Cook, that the pair requested a trade. Which the Broncos verified.

"The Denver Broncos confirm that Jay Cutler has requested a trade," a team spokesman told the AP March 16.

Cutler, during what seemed an unambiguous interview, told Mortensen March 15, "Really, it's best for me to move on."

From a Fox report -

"I was surprised they decided to trade me this soon," Cutler said. "I didn't want to get traded. This wasn't me. (The Broncos) had been going back and forth saying things, wanting me to be their quarterback and then they didn't."

"I really didn't want this. I love Denver. I really like my teammates. I didn't want it to get this far."

If Jay Cutler has any credibility in any locker room anywhere ever again, I will be sorely disappointed in his future teammates. So...was he bluffing in order to get a new contract? Did he think that by showing up his new coach and GM that he was showing his Broncos teammates his sterling leadership qualities? Is this guy really this big an idiot?

Some really quick hits...

Good win for the Celtics against a Bobcats team that's beginning to peak at the right time for a playoff run.

Not really surprised that Clay Buchholz was sent to Pawtucket to start the season, but I will be surprised if we don't see him in Fenway again sometime this season.

Tommy Lasorda just doesn't get it. In his defense of nephew Mike Piazza (related to the recent allegations of steroid use), Lasorda said that Piazza busted his ass in the weight room. That was part of his reasoning that his nephew couldn't have been using. I guess he doesn't know that steroids don't magically give one muscles, that you have to spend time in the weight room or you just get fat. He also uses the idea that Piazza is church-going in his defense of his nephew.

Let's get something straight here - just because someone is inherently a good person, or regularly attends church, that doesn't exempt them from doing something bad or stupid. Andy Pettitte, by all accounts, is a very religious guy, and a good guy in the locker room. Nailed for HGH. Then of course history is littered with religious people that just were not good human beings - take Tomás de Torquemada or Hitler (by all accounts, extremely religious). And please don't think I'm comparing Piazza to Hitler or the grand inquisitor of the Spanish Inquisition - I'm only trying to point out that religiousness is no defense and no guarantee of a person being good.

It looks like Donte Stallworth is getting charged by Miami authorities. It sounds like it's what I previously called. This should surprise no one, and should Stallworth work out a deal that avoids jail time, he's still going to miss games due to whatever suspension is handed down for his lapse in judgement.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Pepper pot...

So, the big rumor right now is that the Pats are on the verge of acquiring Julius Peppers. A lot has to be done before that acquisition is a reality. Even if the Pats and Panthers reach an accord, it will be contingent upon negotiating a new contract with Peppers, who right now is in line to make more than Tom Brady in the coming season.

That's not going to happen - not on the Patriots.

If this does happen, I would say that the trade is probably about a month away. I would be at least a little surprised if the trade happens more than two weeks before the draft actually happens.

But let's take a look at the potential Patriots retooled defense, just for fun...

The Pats had two games in which the Offense was culpable in the demise of the defense due to its inability to stay on the field in those games, and had three other games where the defense either couldn't get off the field due to their lack of pass rush (Chargers, Jets), or the defense's inability to adjust to what the opposing offense was doing (Dolphins).

Some of the issue was pass rush, some was coverage.

The retooled starting line-up (if the Peppers trade works out) will look like this...

Adalius Thomas (OLB) Leigh Bodden (CB)

Richard Seymour (DE)
Jerrod Mayo (ILB) James Sanders (SS/FS)
Vince Wilfork (NT)
Tedy Bruschi (ILB) Brandon Meriweather (SS/FS)
Ty Warren (DE)

Julius Peppers (OLB) Shawn Springs (CB)

Nickel: Ellis Hobbs

With the injuries suffered by the Pats last season at a lot of these positions allowing for significant playing time for Gary Guyton, Pierre Woods, (and the early injury to Shawn Crable) as well as corners Jonathan Wilhite and Mike Richardson, as well as the (re)signings of Eric Alexander, Mike Wright and Tully Banta-Cain, these moves give the Patriots significant depth on defense that they lacked last year.

Additionally, this gives the team two legit cover corners, and a healthy Warren, Thomas, and the addition of Peppers, a solid pass rush. Should the Peppers deal not be consummated, I would expect that Thomas would move to the other side with a likely platoon of Crable and Banta-Cain coming off the backside, unless the Pats sign Jason Taylor. If the Peppers trade happens, I don't think the Pats sign Taylor.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see a move at safety before preseason.

Other quick thoughts -

Yup, it's official, Jay Cutler is a moron. I said this before, and I will reiterate it - first, it's disingenuous of someone to demand a trade, then get offended when his name comes up in trade talks. Second, I can only hope this idiot gets traded to Detroit.

This guy thinks he should be untouchable, but among starters he had the 6th best QB rating in the AFC alone, behind Matt Cassel (and 16th overall, behind such immortals Seneca Wallace, Matt Schaub, and Matt Ryan), 9th best completion percentage (14th in the NFL, behind the likes of Shaun Hill and David Garrard), the 2nd most interceptions (in both the AFC and NFC).

Yes, he logged a lot of yardage last season, but he didn't do it well, and somehow he was a pro-bowler. This is a guy that's a middle-of-the-pack starting quarterback, and he seems to think he's a top five sort of guy.

Saturday, February 28, 2009

So long, and thanks for all the fish...

I didn't initially intend to use a Douglas Adams reference as a double entendre in regards to the Pats record against the Dolphins during Mike Vrabel's tenure in a Pats uni, it just happened that way.

I will miss Vrabel, but I'm not going to bitch about the team moving him. At this point I trust that the team knows what it's doing from a personnel standpoint. I will say that, even though I agree with the coffin corner that this deal makes sense for the Patriots, I still think this is an absolute steal for the Chiefs. For the 34th pick in the draft the Chiefs got a quarterback that's got nothing but upside who just led the Patriots to a 11-5 record. I would like to have seen the Pats get a fourth rounder as well - even if it were in next year's draft.

Through the course of the season, Cassel actually put up better numbers than Brady did in Brady's first season as a starter back in 2001. There are those that will be quick to point out that Cassel did it throwing to Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

I'd like to point out that Brady did it behind a healthy offensive line and with healthy starters at the running back position - so that advantage is really a wash. And Brady did it with a healthier and better defense in place than Cassel had.

I'm not saying that Cassel is better than Brady, or will ever be better than Brady. All I'm saying is that at the same points in their careers, the two are very comparable - and what GM...what team's fans wouldn't want to take that?

They are getting set at signal-caller on the offensive side of the ball, which lets Scott Pioli build around a cornerstone. Now they can concentrate on building the offensive line through free-agency and the draft.

On the other side of the ball they get Mike Vrabel whom Bill Belichick has described as one of the smartest players he has ever coached.

I've noticed a lot of the stories about this point out that Vrabel is coming off an off year. None of those stories mention that the entire Patriots defensive front struggled. The vaunted defensive linemen seldom tied up the personnel that allowed Vrabel to run free in earlier seasons.

Even if Vrabel is at the tail end of his career, my bet is that he's still got two good years left, and this gives the Chiefs a much needed leader on what was a pitiful, leaderless defense.

More than anything else, these two players were brought in to change the culture and climate of the locker room. They were brought in to help teach the young players on this team how to win.

Will they this year? It's unlikely, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs make some noise in 2010.

For Chiefs fans that think this is a bad deal, or that Cassel is the second coming of Scott Mitchell, let's get something cleared up - unlike many of the back-ups that have come before that turned out to be busts, Cassel has a full season under his belt as a starter. Not three or four starts that got some personnel guys all hot and bothered, but a full season, and has been with your personnel guy since he came out of college four years ago. This isn't some guy that Pioli fell in love with over four games of tape - this is a guy that Pioli has seen on the practice field day in and day out for almost half a decade, and then watched pilot the Patriots to 11 wins (could have been 13 if the defensive line could get into the backfield last season). You're getting a player, and the only thing that could be a problem is the team's offensive line.

One last thought - I can't help but find a certain irony that Cassel will be starting for the team next season to which he owes a debt in regards to getting his chance to start.

Matt, Mike, good luck, so long, and thanks for all the fish. It was a fun run.

Saturday, August 02, 2008

Bay State and fishing for a contract...

The first pitch Manny Ramirez saw in a Red Sox uniform was knocked out of the park. The first at bat with the Dodgers resulted in a ground out.

The line for Manny in his first game for the Dodgers 2 for 4 (two singles), no RBI's, no runs scored, one man left in scoring position, and he grounded into a double play that killed the Dodgers chances for a come from behind win in the ninth inning. Bay, on the other hand, went 1 for 3, walked twice and scored both of the Sox' runs in their win to go along with a highlight reel catch in left.

Sure, that's one game, and ten games, twenty games, fifty games from now, the end result might be very different, but I still don't think so. I think the pundits that believe the Red Sox lost out in this trade haven't paid close attention to Manny over the last couple of seasons - I'm not talking about this season - but this, the last, and the one before that. This is, as I noted in a previous post, how the two stack up against each other...

Ramirez has hit 75 home runs and driven in 258, while Bay has 78 homers and driven in 257 in the Pirates line-up. Bay has not had hitters like David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis around him.
Based on those numbers, Ramirez sabotaged his remaining days with the Red Sox, engineering the trade in an effort to avoid the team held $20 million per year options and, according to his agent, land a new four year deal worth $100 mil. $25 mil per year. For the same guy nobody would claim on waivers. In his prime. For less money than that.

Now he's older, his stats aren't as good, and the Red Sox had to pay the Dodgers to take him.

And somehow, he believes that he's going to get better than $20 million per year on the market for the next four.

I guess that's just another case of Manny being Manny. Although I suppose, depending on how it all plays out, it could be a case of Manny being Nomar - the man who was insulted by the Sox' 4-year $60 million contract extension, became disgruntled in the club house, and, as a result, was traded to the Cubs. Nomar, who began to show signs of being...fragile...had an undistinguished second half and, as a result, has made approximately half the money he would have made had he signed the extension.

Manny will be better than Nomar was, but he's not going to put up the numbers in cavernous Dodger Stadium that he did in the friendly confines of Fenway, batting in the 21st ranked offense, as opposed to the fourth. Just like that will negatively affect his offensive production, Bay's move from the Pirates to the Red Sox should positively influence his.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Manny being Manny

Often Manny Ramirez plays baseball with a child-like joy. Unfortunately, like clockwork, he also uses his position and the perception of himself as one of the games premier hitters to throw petulant tantrums.

Almost every year that he's been in Boston, he's done this - and the Fenway faithful have generally forgiven him, given him a pass, and cheered him. The same fan-base that booed Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, and Jim Rice, has given Manny a pass.

Now Manny says the following -

“The Red Sox don’t deserve a player like me,” Ramirez said. “During my years here, I’ve seen how they (the Red Sox) have mistreated other great players when they didn’t want them to try to turn the fans against them.

“The Red Sox did the same with guys like Nomar Garciaparra and Pedro Martinez, and now they do the same with me. Their goal is to paint me as the bad guy.

“I love Boston fans, but the Red Sox don’t deserve me. I’m not talking about money. Mental peace has no price, and I don’t have peace here.”

I agree, the Sox don't deserve him. They made Manny one of the highest paid players in the history of the game when they signed him - and they got a player that whined about not wanting to be in Boston from year one, a player that would fake injuries and illness to get out of the line-up, take plays off, and fail to run out ground balls, and in so doing, screw his teammates. Why? Because he doesn't like his contract. Because he doesn't have enough privacy in Boston (then don't invite the Globe into your house to do an article on where you live). Because he has friends on another team.

And let's face a few realities here - realities that Manny is not acknowledging...

Manny shoved a senior citizen to the ground, no one made him do that. Manny complained about pain in the knee - not for the first time while he's been with the team - and this time the Sox called him on it by getting an MRI on both knees. He's complained about his deal with regularity - the one he signed - upset about the team-held options. It's not like these were hidden in fine print when he signed the contract - everyone knew the deal before the ink was drying, but now he's unhappy with it. No one held a gun to his head.

Manny's doing a really, really good job of painting himself as the bad guy.

And let's face it, when someone's hitting 45 home-runs and knocking in 130 to 144 RBI's per season, and leading the league in many of the offensive categories, it's easy to write off the whining and other issues that come with Manny.

But he's not leading the league anymore. This is what he's doing...

Tied for 26th in the majors in home runs.

Tied for 25th in RBI's.

Tied for 25th in Runs.

Is 35th in batting average.

Is 18th in OPS.

Is 26th in slugging percentage.

Of all of those stats, the only one in which Manny leads the Red Sox is homers - he has 20 to JD Drew's 19, and Kevin Youkilis' 18. Otherwise, he trails teammates in every other category.

If the trade the Sox are looking at works out, Boston will bring in the 29-year old Jason Bay who leads Ramirez in home runs, has only four fewer RBI's, has scored six more runs while batting in the 12th ranked line-up in the majors. Ramirez is in the fifth, and for much of the season the Sox line-up was top two.

Over the last three seasons (including this one), Ramirez has hit 75 home runs and driven in 258, while Bay has 78 homers and driven in 257 in the Pirates line-up. Bay has not had hitters like David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis around him.

For the season, given their current line-ups, Ramirez projects for 30 home runs and 102 RBI's, Bay for 33 homers and 96 RBI's. What might Bay do in a better line-up?

Monday, July 21, 2008

Taylor-made trade

So Jason Taylor is now on the Redskins for the reasonable ransom of Miami's second-rounder next year, and a sixth-rounder in the 2010 draft. The debate has begun as to who won - who made out best at the end of the day.

Let's begin by noting that no one will really know, of these two teams, who the real winner is for a couple of years, but here are some thoughts on the trade...

In the long run, it's likely that the Dolphins were winners here if you consider the following...a second rounder and a sixth rounder used right can amount to some significant long-term help. Consider Matt Light (2nd rounder) and Tom Brady (6th rounder), or Adalius Thomas (6th rounder) and Lawyer Milloy (2nd rounder) - all of those are players that have contributed long-term in the NFL. Especially considering Jason Taylor's expressed intent to retire at the end of next season, the Dolphins team has a chance to make this trade work out well for them - but that depends on Bill Parcells' ability to buy the right groceries.

As for the Redskins...well, sure, they get a six time pro-bowler, but this isn't the first time under Dan Snyder's watch that the 'Skins have brought in a multiple pro-bowler...Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Jerome Mathis, and Mark Brunell are a small cross-section of the high end players that the Snyder regime has brought in. They are members of a fraternity of Washington players that accounted for 26 pro-bowls previous to signing with Snyder in the nation's capital (Taylor will bring the number to 32).

The 'Skins, of course, are hoping to break that jinx with Taylor, but even if they do, they're only getting a season, maybe two from him. I would be surprised if he played any longer, given his very public sentiments to get involved in other post-career endeavors. Given the division, and everything the 'Skins have going against them, I don't see Taylor in a significantly better situation...

Yes, the Redskins made great strides last season finishing third in the NFC East with a 9-7 record - this in spite of a quarterback who often looked not-quite-ready for prime time. However, they are starting from scratch with a new coaching staff and a new system in a division in which they have the fourth best quarterback and an unproven commodity at coach.

Taylor now finds himself anchoring a defense on a team looking up at the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants, the defending NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys, and perennial contender Philadelphia Eagles.

Let's look at it a little differently - if Taylor had his choice of teams, rather than being shipped in a trade, yet still limiting it to the NFC East, is he choosing the team with Super Bowl winning coach Tom Coughlin? The team with Andy Reid, the only coach to go to the NFC Championship Game four consecutive seasons? Or Wade Phillips who has had only one losing season as a head coach? Or Jim Zorn, a career coordinator? I'm guessing it's not the last one.

So, who is really the winner in this case?

I don't think it's either the 'Skins who get a one year rental or the 'Phins who get question marks.

Nope.

It's Tom Brady and Matt Light.

While the Patriots have beaten the Dolphins pretty regularly over the last couple of years, the games against them have been about a struggle. Jason Taylor has been a big part of that, making life miserable twice a year for Brady and Light and now he's gone.

They win.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Pure Joy and other musings

There's a lot of talk about the right way to play the game - whether football, baseball, basketball, hockey, or whatever else out there people play. I've noted before in this space that when I was growing up that Pete Rose was the example.

Rose was a hard-nosed, blue-collar sort of player. He never took a play off, he didn't walk around the bases. Even on a home run, he ran down the line. He played every game like it was going to be the last time he was going to be allowed to step onto a field. Charlie Hustle brought an intensity to the game that few did. He played the game with love and respect. The Red Sox had Fred Lynn and Carlton Fisk - both of whom played with a similar intensity.

We used to say that these men played the game the "right way."

But that isn't the only way that is the "right" one.

There are others.

Manny Ramirez does not bring the intensity that those competitors did. At times he has infuriating and confounding lapses of concentration. But the man demonstrates a pure joy in playing the game. He revels in it.

We call it Manny being Manny, but its the Red Sox' man-child playing the game with the same sort of excitement as a five-year old child finding his first bicycle under the Christmas tree. He laughs, he jokes with the crowd, he slaps a high five with a fan at the outfield wall before doubling the runner off with a cannon throw back to the infield. He might be the best pure hitter I've ever seen.

Better than Yaz, Wade Boggs, or even the inimitable Tony Gwynn. There is a certain effortlessness to his swing, born, I suspect, of the joy with which he approaches the game.

It is as much the right way to play the game as the approach of Rose, Fisk, and Lynn. And it's part of the reason that Ramirez hit his 500th homer this weekend.

Big Papi...

The buzz in the national press is that the Red Sox are in trouble with the wrist injury to David Ortiz. They might be - but I think the bullpen woes have been a bigger problem than being without Ortiz for a month...or the remainder of the year, for that matter...will be.

The Sox have an enormous amount of depth - both in the line-up, and in the starting rotation - but pitchers that were lights out in the pen last year, are a crap-shoot this year.

Can they replace Ortiz's production? Maybe.

But I wouldn't be surprised, if he's lost for the season, to see the Sox make a run at someone like Junior Griffey, or even Adam Dunn in an effort to replace the production if they are unable to do it from within.

Of all the teams in the East, only the Sox are well enough stocked in minor league talent to pull something like that off.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Dodging a bullet

Johan Santana is heading to the Mets.

This says to me that the Red Sox and Yankees were both out of the bidding at the end.

The Mets gave up four prospects to get Santana, none of which are considered by scouts to be major league ready right now.

Both the Yanks and Sox were offering at least one quality, major league ready prospect along with a package of minor leaguers, all believed to be no more than a year away from the majors. And we've seen, in the Mets, what their top prospects have done in recent years (Lastings Milledge).

If the prospects the Mets sent to the Twins don't pan out, this is going to go down in Minnesota sports history with the following - the Vikings trade to get Herschel Walker, which, in essence, was the impetus for the three-Super Bowl Cowboys; the Twins getting nothing for David Ortiz; the Kevin Garnett trade to the Celtics. Those are just the ones I can think of.

The reason it will be comparable? Because they could have had any one of the following sure-fire major leaguers - Phil Hughes, Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp, or John Lester. Crisp doesn't have the upside the others have, but it would have given them a center-fielder and lead-off hitter...and they would definitely have had something to show for it.

The Twins played chicken and lost.

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

New Year, new season

Happy New Year to all my readers.

The change of a year is always time for reflection. As I've never been one for resolutions, I'll settle for reflection.

With the advent of 2008, so begins the NFL post season. The Patriots are the odds on favorites, the Colts are being looked at as having the best chance of knocking off the first team that went 16-0. Let's look back at some of what the pundits have said about the Patriots, and some of the other stories that started in 2007, and will follow us through 2008...

"The Eagles have given us the blueprint on how to beat the Patriots..."

This is what the pundits said after the Eagles played the Patriots fairly evenly from wire to wire. The Eagles still lost by a field-goal. Interesting statement, but wrong.

The blueprint provided by the Eagles is the one most likely to beat the Patriots given that they have only beaten teams that have played like that by an average of three points per game. However, until there's a number in that loss column that doesn't look like a big egg, to make that as a definitive statement is just wrong.

The Giants came out and played that same physical game, and gave up 38 points.

The Mitchell Report...

The 2008 baseball season is going to be played under the shadow of the Mitchell Report, and Roger Clemens less than believable denials of his steroid use. Clemens and Barry Bonds are going to continue to dominate the headlines like they have in recent weeks.

Both of these situations will resolve themselves this year, but neither are going to go away any time soon.

Tuna Helper

The announcement of Bill Parcells return to the NFL coincided with the week the Patriots played the now 1-15 Dolphins. The Tuna has already begun to clean house, and rumors have it that he is likely to plunder personnel people from his last NFL stop, the Cowboys.

While the news of him joining his third AFC East franchise will fade quickly, every time this team plays one of his former teams, be it the Jets, Pats, or Cowboys, this will be brought up, as will some variation on the term "Bill-Bowl"

New Englanders need to be ready for that last item at least twice a year for as long as Parcells and Belichick play for their respective teams.

Pacman Jones

With the season over, Jones is likely to receive his reinstatement for next season, assuming he can continue to keep his nose clean, and he can keep out of jail. If one of his many transgressions result in jail time, I wouldn't be surprised to see Roger Goodell extend his suspension.

The Boston Three Party...

The new Big Three of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett have not only made the Celtics relevant in Boston again, but have the team as the odds on favorite to represent the East in the NBA finals, while on pace for a record 74 win season. Amazing for a team that finished its last season with a second worst league total of 24 wins.

Happy New Year Paul Pierce...it's a brand new day for you.

Overrated Savior...

The rumors regarding the Boston-Minnesota trade of Johan Santana will continue until the season starts, if nothing is consummated before the season begins.

I'm on record as saying that the Sox are already offering too much for a player that the Twins either have to move, or receive nothing for. Minnesota is demanding top prospects as well as Jacoby Ellsbury, along with one of the following pitchers - Clay Buchholz, or Jon Lester.

The Sox package includes Lester, Coco Crisp, and shortstop Jed Lowrie, along with pitcher Justin Masterson. Both Lowrie and Masterson project as big leaguers. Lester already has a better post-season history than Santana who has a horrible ERA in Fenway park, and a history of wilting down the stretch.

Right now the Sox hold the cards in this, and as long as they can keep Santana away from the Yankees without selling the farm - especially considering that the Sox will need a shortstop sometime soon - then I say let Santana languish in Minnesota.

This story might go away come April, but it will return at the trade deadline.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Shut up and play...and ruminations on the potential Santana trade

This has been a tiresome week for me.

I live in Whine Country in Maryland.

I watch the boards and read various articles about the NFL games for several days after the games end on Sunday and Monday. For weeks I have heard fans of other teams bitch and moan about the lack of class of the Patriots. This week I have heard, both locally, and nationally (mostly in interviews with Ravens) how the officials took the game from them (thankfully the national press has pretty much said what follows here...well, with the exception of my sentiments on Samari Rolle).

To that, I answer the following - since Belichick took over, you have never heard players blame each other for any of their losses (Peyton Manning, I'm looking at you), you have never heard the Patriots blame the officials (Ravens, I'm looking at you). The team has gone longer than any other team in the NFL without a player arrested (Bengals, Redskins, Cardinals, Bears, Dolphins, and...well the rest of the NFL, I'm looking at you). The team hasn't had any assistant coaches get into trouble on their own time (Detroit, and Arizona). As a matter of fact, other than Belichick being named in a divorce proceeding and the tragedy that took Marquise Hill, the Patriots are pretty much in the news for playing football.

As for the Ravens and their fan base, the idea that the refs took that game from them is patently ridiculous. While I have made many of the following points elsewhere myself, I would like to thank Peter King for the following summary of the end of Monday night's game -

• New England ball, fourth-and-1, Baltimore 30, 1:48 left, Baltimore up 24-20. At the last second before the snap, Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan calls timeout. The play went on, with Baltimore stuffing Tom Brady for a loss and, theoretically, that should have been New England's last gasp. One problem.
Only the head coach is supposed to be able to call time on the sidelines. But in
this case, the league has interpreted the rule on a last-millisecond timeout call that the side official cannot be responsible for seeing whether it's the head coach or another coach who calls time. So it's technically legal for Ryan to have called the timeout, and the league's point is the head coach is responsible for controlling his bench. In this case, Brian Billick has to be responsible for his sideline, and when Ryan calls time, the burden is on Billick to accept the call because it happened on the Baltimore sideline.
• New England ball, fourth-and-5, Baltimore 13, 55 seconds left, Baltimore up 24-20. Brady retreats to pass. From the right side of the line, tight end Ben Watson runs downfield into the end zone, with nickel back Jamaine Winborne riding him tightly downfield. Once Watson gets past the 8-yard line, it's illegal for Winborne to have anything but incidental contact with Watson, but he clearly has an arm on him well past the 8, and all the way into the end zone. Maybe the call should have been holding, maybe the call should have been illegal contact, but it was a legitimate call, not a ticky-tack one. Winborne impeded Watson's path.
The back judge, Billy Smith, called holding, a five-yard penalty and automatic
first down. I would have called illegal contact, but both penalties have the same impact, which is to give the Patriots a first-and-goal at the Baltimore 8. Great guts by Smith to make a call in that atmosphere.
• New England ball, first-and-goal, Baltimore 8, 50 seconds left. Brady throws to the left corner of the end zone for Jabar Gaffney, who catches the ball in front of his body with both hands while getting both feet down. During the time he gets both feet down, Gaffney moves the ball in front of him but never takes either gloved hand off
the ball and never juggles the ball. It is ruled a touchdown, and there is a booth review ordered by replay official Dale Hamer. The play is reviewed by ref Walt Anderson and confirmed. Let's remember what replay is: It's to be used to overturn a call only if there is indisputable visual evidence that the call is wrong. There's no way you can look at this play -- and I've seen it 10 times, in slow-motion -- and say there's clear evidence he didn't have control of the ball.
• Baltimore ball, second-and-10, Baltimore 45, eight seconds left. Kyle Boller throws a Hail Mary to the 3-yard line, and, in the middle of the scrum, Baltimore wideout Derrick Mason puts his hands on Patriot cornerback Asante Samuel's shoulders and pulls Samuel down. Mark Clayton makes the catch and is tackled at the three. There is no flag. Big mistake. There certainly should have been offensive pass interference ... but even if that was the call, it would not have changed the outcome. Because the clock expired, and the game can end on an offensive penalty, the game would have been over without the Ravens having another chance to score.

Let's also address Samari Rolle's complaint about the 53-year old former player, and official who called him "boy at least five times." The large black man whom Rolle accused, by his own admission, of having "never strapped on a helmet," in relation to what Rolle felt were bogus calls.

The more that comes out about Rolles complaint, the more it sounds like he incited the ref. Rolle claims that he was told by 110, "boy, shut up and play." Part of his complaint is that Rolle himself is 31 years old and a father of three, and "you don't call a grown man 'boy.'" To which I say, maybe he should act like a grown man and accept responsibility for his actions, and not blame the refs for his teammates screw-ups.

This will result in a talking to the officials by Goodell, but it should also result in a smackdown on the Ravens who seem to think that the officials are trying to help the Patriots by edict from the league offices.

One of the most ridiculous accusations is that the league wants to help Bill Belichick, who has pretty much become the NFL version of Darth Vader in everyone's eyes, win. It was obvious in the way the game against the Colts was officiated, and the way the officials helped AJ Feeley toss three picks, and of course the way the officials ignored an obvious penalty on the Baltimore Hail Mary in the closing seconds. If Clayton gets into the end zone, that's a potentially game changing play on which the refs blew the call. Do Ravens fans think the NFL told the refs to blow that call too?

Bottom line, they need to get their heads out of their asses and really look at how that game was called. Yes, it was poorly officiated, but it was poorly officiated on both sides. And if the second most penalized team in the AFC really thinks that the refs were quick to throw the flags on them, then maybe it has a lot less to do with the Patriots record than the fact that year in and year out they play disciplined football, and, as such, are one of the least penalized teams in the league. That might have followed the Ravens into the game more than any conspiracy by the NFL to keep the Patriots without a loss.

If they don't want the flags thrown, maybe they should try playing with discipline - hell, Ed Reed was five yards off-sides on an extra-point attempt. How often do you see that?

As for Santana, and I'm not talking the guitar legend...

I'm pretty much on record at a number of other blogs as not in favor of this trade. Johan Santana is a superb power pitcher whom I would love to see on the Red Sox for the right price. The deals as structured combined with the rumored contract demands are not the right price. Maybe if Santana were 27, it would be, but he's 29, has already pitched over 1300 big league innings, has faded down the stretch and has been mediocre, at best, in the post season.

This doesn't even take into account Santana's Fenway park numbers - 1-3 (15.2 innings) in three starts and one relief appearance with a 6.89 ERA, 12 K and a 1.85 WHIP. The only win came in the relief appearance and his last Fenway start was 5 innings with a 7.20 ERA. Part of what has hurt Santana in Fenway is the fact that he's a flyball pitcher. Those flyballs that are outs in the Metrodome are going to be doubles off the wall in Fenway.

I can't help but feel that given the fact that Jon Lester is 23, was solid in a year that he came off cancer, and put up better numbers in his first year than Santana in his first, I can't help feeling that giving the Twins Lester and three to four prospects that will likely be playing in the majors within the next two seasons, that the Red Sox are grossly overpaying ala the Vikings for Herschel Walker for a bauble they don't really need. What surprises me here is that the Twins haven't jumped on this offer, given that the Sox are currently not bidding against anyone else.

Why do I compare this to the Walker trade? I think, like Walker in Minnesota, that Santana will have limited success in Fenway, and that his propensity to give up flyballs will negate any upgrade he would otherwise represent over Lester who is likely to average 14 to 16 wins per season over the next couple of seasons (health permitting).

Power pitchers who begin to develop elbow problems like Santana has been exhibiting begin to show significant drop off in numbers between the ages of 33 and 35. Given Santana's demands, I can't help feeling that in four years that the Sox would be paying $20 to 25 million per year and dealing with the same situation that the Mets did this year with Pedro Martinez - paying gobs of money for a guy who couldn't get off the bench until late August due to injury.

And none of this takes into account the domino effect of paying Santana obscene gobs of money in spite of the fact that he's nowhere near the post-season pitcher that Beckett...or for that matter, Lester is.

Given the way last year's JD Drew signing went down, it feels like Theo has become enamored of another shiny bauble that the team doesn't need, and is bidding against himself in an effort to get it.

I understand not being able to do Lester straight up for Santana, even Lester and one player, but Lester and three seems too much for a team that doesn't actually need Santana. Don't even get me started on Buchholz or Ellsbury, neither of which I think should be included in any deal for the Twins ace.

Monday, December 03, 2007

Greed

Greed will be the undoing of Theo Epstein this off-season. If reports are true regarding the Red Sox including likely rookie of the year candidate Jacoby Ellsbury in a trade for Johann Santana, and it's not the bluff that Dave over at The Coffin Corner hopes, then Larry Lucchino needs to step in now.

Sure, getting Santana would be a major move and keep the Sox as favorites in the East for years to come with a rotation of Beckett, Santana, Matsuzaka, and whoever the Sox have left after the trade to fill in the back end of the rotation. However, he's not worth anywhere near what Minnesota is asking - particularly if half his starts are coming in Fenway Park.

I noted the following in response to one of the postings at the Coffin Corner, because I wanted to note what no one has been saying about this deal from the Red Sox end of things -

Everyone is talking about his greatness, nobody is talking about the fact Theo is trying to bring a fly ball pitcher to Fenway who has a career 6.89 ERA when playing in Boston, or the fact that he's 1-4 in five post-season appearances with 3.97 ERA.

The Sox already have a lefty with better postseason numbers - Lester - 2-0 in two appearances with a 1.93 ERA.

At 23 and coming off of cancer treatment, Lester still has tremendous up-side. This season, coming back from injury Lester had a 0.77 Ground ball to fly ball ratio, worse than Santana's career ration of 0.88. However, last year, before Lester's health failed him, his ratio was 1.03 (in 81.1 innings pitched with a 4.76 ERA). In 2000, Santana's first season with the Twins, he tossed 86 innings with a 6.49 ERA to go with the 0.88 ratio (for those out there that don't get the ratio, the lower that number, the higher the number of flies given up by the pitcher).

From everything I have read about recovery from the sort of lymphoma that Lester suffered from, he won't be 100 percent until the start of the 2008 season - and he still posted a lower ERA this season than last.

I would be worried that the Sox were giving up way too much for a pitcher that hasn't been very good in Fenway through his career.
Many out there point out that Santana is more accomplished than Lester, and that Lester is unlikely to reach Santana's level. To that I say, I would rather have the solid middle of the rotation guy who comes up big in the postseason, than the ace who might account for maybe six more wins during the regular season, but disappears in the postseason.

I hate to say it, but right now, Santana is the A-Rod of pitching. He's a pretty bauble that hasn't been able to seal the deal when the pressure was on to bring home a championship.

Keep the everyday player. Keep the two major league ready pitching prospects. Let the Yankees gut their youth once again for a player who has on-year followed by off-year, and doesn't show up in the big games.

Take your chances Theo with what you have. Santana isn't what the Sox need.

Thursday, August 02, 2007

A few Red Sox observations

The Red Sox landed Eric Gagne as the big piece to put themselves over the hump for the stretch run. I'm not sure I like this move all that much.

I understand the logic - get the proven arm to shore up the bullpen for the dog-days and the post season, while opening a rotation spot for the returning Curt Schilling. Really, I get it.

This is my problem - Kason Gabbard has been a more than solid replacement in the rotation for the marginally effective Schilling this season. He is a left-handed pitcher that hasn't turned 23 yet, and has shown veteran poise on the mound. I would have less problem with it if Gabbard were a righty, but he's not - he's a lefty in a division where the best regular season team for the last decade has struggled against quality lefties. The Sox could have been going into next season with two of them.

Instead the lefty was traded for a rent-a-player to improve what is already, statistically, the best bullpen in baseball. I think I would even have felt better about it if the Sox had gotten a decent bat out of it. Instead, they got a power-pitcher with a history of arm problems.

I'll give Theo to the end of the season on this, but I have to say, I'm not feeling as good about this trade as the rest of Red Sox Nation. Anything less than a World Series appearance would be unacceptable after trading away someone who could be a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy for years to come.

Our Dumb Red Sox Nation members...

Need to either learn math, or stay off the message boards. I say this because there have been a number of our idiotic brethren calling for the Sox to rid themselves of Tim Wakefield making claims like the following - and I quote, "my MOM throws harder than Wakefield!! he'll probably pitch until he's 50....and still be a .500 pitcher."

At least one argument that I read is that he's a waste because he takes up two roster spots by forcing the team to have to carry the light hitting Doug Mirabelli - and as such, doesn't get good run support.

Let's analyze these arguments just to see how ignorant and idiotic they are (I remember when Sox fans used to be knowledgeable).

Wakefield's career record is 164-143 (.534). Last time I checked, that was indeed higher than .500, unless I just don't understand the new math. This season he is 13-9 (.591), tied for the team in wins.

His 138.1 innings pitched in 22 starts is second on the team only to Daisuke Matsuzaka's 144. He has averaged 6.1 innings per start, the same number averaged by Schilling. The only regular starter that has had below six innings per start has been Julian Tavarez. Batters are hitting .261 against him. That's .027 points lower than Schilling or Tavarez.

As for run support - Wakefield is sporting a 4.55 ERA after today's game. Given that he averages just 6.1 innings pitched per start, that means he is giving up an average of 3.20 runs per start. The team is averaging 4.5 runs scored per Wakefield start.

So...can someone explain to me how these people learned to use a computer - it's obvious that they don't know how to read numbers.

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Rumor mills and reactions

With the source credited as the New York Daily News, Yahoo reported the following rumor -

the Los Angeles Dogers, Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox have the best chances of landing Alex Rodriguez in 2008. The cost? How about as much as $30 million per season?
Longer shots to sign A-Rod – this is all assuming he opts out of his contract after this season – are the Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets and San Francisco Giants.

The reactions to this have been fascinating, ranging from the simple, "we'll take him," or, "we don't want him," to the reasonably well thought out post of this person -

Quit B.S.ing all you who said "Hope he doesn't come here" He's the best player
of this generation and when he's done he'll be the best ever. No true fan
wouldn't want that added to their hometown team. Don't think I say this as an
A-Rod fan, I'm a Mariners fan and have more reason to hate him than any of you
but get serious. No one can stand him here but if he were re-signed he'd get a
standing ovation for everything he did. He's that good. Like him or hate him but
don't deny he's the best and any GM who had the chance would be an idiot to pass
on him. Sure, he's had a rough time in the playoffs for the Yankees but if he
isn't on that club they don't even make the playoffs a few of those years. He's
not the problem, the pitching staff having one starter younger than Yoda is the
problem..... GO MARINERS!!!!
Posted by ateabug1 on Tuesday, Jul 10, 2007
5:21 pm EDT

It's well though out, but it's not right.

A lot is made about him being the highest paid player in the game. If he can get that sort of contract, more power to him. But he needs to go into it with the understanding that when he doesn't produce as the highest paid player in the game, the fans will come at him hard like they have done in New York. If your team is giving you the highest paid player in the game, then that player damn well better produce as the best player in the game. A-Rod hasn't.

Statistically, A-Rod is a freak. If looked at based solely on his regular season numbers, not broken down by month, or what inning he's batting in, Rodriguez looks like the best player in the game. He might end up the all-time home-run leader, and he is likely to finish his career with numbers that will get him into the Hall-of-Fame on a near unanimous first ballot.

Hell, he's the best bat the Yankees have had this season.

Despite the numbers, as a Red Sox fan, the closest I want this man to my team is on the Yankees - particularly if he opts out of his current contract in the hopes of getting a bigger contract. Why?

He's about as good under pressure as a soft-boiled egg.

When it began unravelling for the Yankees in the 2004 post-season, A-Rod slapped at Bronson Arroyo's glove as the pitcher ran to cover first in a blatant display of interference and unsportsman-like conduct. This year he yelled as he ran from second to third, interfering with the shortstop's ability to field a ball in Toronto during a game the Yankees were winning. He has been dubbed by the New York media as Mr. April - not just a shot at his post-season woes, but a knock that is meant to evoke former Yankee Dave Winfield who was dubbed Mr. May by George Steinbrenner back in 1982. At least Winfield made it to May.

These are just the tidbits that pop to mind, never mind the rumblings that he sets himself apart from his team-mates, or that a $30 million annual salary, even for the Red Sox, would make it prohibitive to go out and sign other people who might help the team.

The Angels? Historically they haven't spent anywhere near that to sign free-agents. Dodgers? I would be surprised.

The Cubs, given their recent spending, might make a run, but realistically, I think the Yankees will pony up with the biggest offer, although I could see the Mets making a serious run.

I'd rather see the Sox go out and sign or trade for someone like Mark Teixeira and move Kevin Youkilis to third if they're not going to resign Mike Lowell. As for moving him back to short? I'm not interested enough in him to even consider the possibility, which is saying a lot considering the lack of production the Sox have from Julio Lugo.

Monday, April 30, 2007

Formerly PMSing Moss now with New England...um...right...

So, for what appears to be a bargain (potentially just one year $3+ million and a fourth round draft pick) the Patriots landed Raiders' trouble child Randy Moss. There's just something about this deal that feels...well...icky. This guy is about a half step up from Terrell Owens. It's like George Steinbrenner owning the Red Sox. There's just something wrong about this deal.

Does it make the Patriots team better? Probably, but at what cost? Moss is a highly talented and likely motivated player, with a desire to show the league that he is the same player he was before his two years in Oakland. However, he is also a notoriously selfish player. Despite his protests to the contrary this past weekend, his selfishness is well documented, as he often publicly complained that he did not get the ball enough, did nothing to sell routes when he knew running plays were going away from him, and seldom blocks.

How long, in the Patriots team first system, will this guy last before becoming a problem?

It will be difficult for me to root for this guy - too often he has been in the news for the wrong reasons, and that is something that is important.

Generally I'm willing to give the Patriots brain-trust the benefit of the doubt...this move has just left me wondering.

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Peter's Friends...

For all the moaning about the "mistake" the Patriots made in letting Deion Branch go in the trade, it is interesting that Peter King at Sports Illustrated had this to say in this week's Monday Morning Quarterback column -

"10. Seattle (10-8). Just a guess, but my feeling is the Seahawks would rather have the 22nd pick in the draft, plus the $7 million-a-year cap dollars it paid Deion Branch, back right now. Instead, New England sits there with two first-rounders, the rich getting richer, and Seattle is out of the draft business until late in the second round come April."

That's kind of a backhanded way of saying, "maybe we (the press) were wrong about Branch's impact."

Down to 181.5. aiming for 179 by next monday and 170 by the end of February.

Considering the results of last year's trades (Hanley Ramirez, Cla Merideth, etc.), I think it's wise of Theo Epstein to nix a trade with any team looking to plunder the Sox top prospects in order to unload an aging superstar with a bloated contract. I mean, the Sox don't really want to become the Yankees, do they?

I don't even really follow basketball, haven't in years. I look at the standings now and then, but there isn't really a team out there I root for. That being said, this year the Atlantic Conference in the East is bad - I mean really bad, like on a biblical level sort of bad. Currently the two best teams in the AC, New Jersey and Toronto are each a game under .500 with only 22 wins with less than half a season left to play. To put that in perspective, in the East alone Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Indiana, Washington, and Orlando all have better records.

In the West - Utah, Denver, Minnesota, Phoenix, The Lakers, The Clippers, Dallas, San Antonio and Houston all have better records. In a 30-team league, there are 15 teams with better winning percentages.

If division winners were not automatic locks to get into the playoffs, if playoff contenders were based on record alone it could be feasible that both teams could miss the playoffs as Golden State is only a half game behind the Nets and Raptors and Miami, Portland, and New Orleans are all within five games.