Rounding up loose ends...

By now I'm sure anyone who reads this blog is aware that former Patriots receiver Donte Stallworth was involved in an unfortunate incident recently wherein he struck and killed a pedestrian. At this writing charges have not been filed, but given that his blood alcohol level was well over the legal limit, it is only a matter of time.

At the very least this will result in a suspension for Stallworth, and probably jail time. This is the sort of thing that can potentially serve from 5 to 15 years, depending on what they have determined the degree of the offense to be. I expect a deal to be cut that will either allow Stallworth to stay out of jail, or to serve a minimum amount of time - meaning I don't believe he will be found guilty of vehicular manslaughter as provided by the Florida State Penal Code.

And here are five things I think based on what I have seen the last week -

1. For all the injuries the Celtics have suffered, I think they have happened with plenty of time for the Green to get healthy. Once healthy, I think that it was more important for the Cavs to get the one seed than the Celtics. Should the current seeded positions remain constant, I believe we'll see the C's play the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. If the C's steal a game in Cleveland early in the series, then I think the series favors them.
2. I firmly believe that Junichi Tazawa will make his big league debut this season as a back of the rotation/middle reliever.
3. This is a guess, but it seems to me that Theo is giving George Kottaras the opportunity to show the organization that he is the heir-apparent to Jason Varitek. My bet would be, given the glut of pitching prospects in the minors, if Kottaras struggles, or at least fails to even show flashes during the regular season, then and only then will we see a trade with Texas consummated for one of their catchers.
4. I don't think that the Patriots are done with the defensive overhaul - I've said it before and will say it again: Jason Taylor is the most logical and Belichick-ian choice to play opposite Adalius Thomas. He is likely to be signed by the team sometime after the draft and will take less money to go to the Pats just for the chance to win. I also think that Shawn Crable will get a long look in training camp as the future at that same location.
5. I think Yankee fans are going to have a tough April. The team's best early season player, Alex Rodriguez, is likely to miss the first month of the season, CC Sabathia has huffed and puffed his way to a Spring Training ERA that is dwarfed only by his Michelinman-like physique and their big-name in-the-field acquisition, Mark Texiera, is a notorious slow starter (.259 career hitter for the month of April, his next lowest monthly average - .282 in July). I firmly believe this is a team that's on track to be playing catch-up again, and they will be chasing both the Red Sox and the Rays.
   

Buying the groceries

As I suspected, the Patriots aren't making a big splash, but they are going about signing a number of solid, proven veterans that should help in the short-run, and could potentially help in the long-run.

They have managed to, with four simple signings (and one re-signing), replace Lonnie Paxton who followed Josh McDaniels to Denver, upgrade from Lamont Jordan at running back, keep needed depth along the offensive line while retaining their largest fullback, and significantly upgraded their defensive backfield.

Discounting the Nathan Hodel signing since it's swapping one long-snapper for another, let's take a quick look at each signing and some of the other transactions the Patriots have had to bolster the team, or retain personnel -

Former Jacksonville Jaguars running back Fred Taylor is probably the biggest signing of the bunch. Taylor, while slightly older, represents an upgrade over the talented but erratic Lamont Jordan. Jordan was a solid part of the running back rotation last season, just as Taylor is likely to be this season. Taylor is more apt to be able to pick up the slack as a starter than Jordan, given the fact that Taylor is coming off a career low in attempts (based on playing in at least 10 games) which still would have qualified as Jordan's third highest number of attempts in a season.

While Taylor at 32 is on the downside of his career, he likely still has enough juice left to be a part time impact player.

Russ Hochstein was re-signed and in so doing the team retained one of their most versatile offensive linemen, and with Heath Evans moving on to the Saints, Hochstein moves to the top of the depth chart as the team's blocking back.

On March 5 the Pats traded for Eagles receiver Greg Lewis, a burner who is likely to be the third receiver. Lewis has shown flashes, and has apparent upside, but has yet to show the sort of consistency that Jabar Gaffney gave the third receiver position. If it works out, Lewis gives Tom Brady a speedster who will likely draw single coverage while defenses double up on Wes Welker underneath and Randy Moss on the other side. If Lewis fails to have a breakout season in this offense, it's unlikely that he will ever blossom.

I like the Shawn Springs signing, but was surprised that it was a three year contract. Given his history of injury, I expected a one-year incentive laden contract, maybe with an option. That said, Springs represents an upgrade over what the Patriots had in their backfield last season. Springs also is the sort of veteran presence that Bill Belichick likes to bring in as a player-coach to bring the youngsters along. As an aside, given Buffalo's recent move, Springs was instrumental in holding Terrell Owens to five receptions for 38 yards in the Redskins second meeting with the Cowboys last season.

The signing I like best, however, is the 27-year old Leigh Bodden. Bodden, cut by the Detroit Lions after only one season, previously played for Romeo Crennel's Browns. In Crennel's defense, Bodden excelled - in three seasons under the former Patriots coordinator, and in defenses that were in the bottom half of the rankings, the 6' 1" corner racked up 11 interceptions, 45 tackles, and 177 tackles.

I still say that the Pats sign Jason Taylor before training camp and he comes in to play as a 'tweener D-end/linebacker in order to bolster the pass rush because, like Springs, he's the sort of veteran player that Belichick loves to bring in at a discount.

Other quick thoughts -

Am I the only person out there that thinks Jay Cutler is an idiot - the man demands the Broncos trade him, then gets pissy when they actually try to do so. Am I the only one missing something here? I mean, sure, he threw for 4,526 yards last season, but he also racked up seven interceptions to six touchdowns in the final six games of the season when Denver went 2-4 after starting 6-4. That final stretch included a one touchdown, two interception performance against the Chargers in the final game of the season, the game that would have sealed up the Western Conference and a trip to the playoffs.

Any, and I mean, did anyone out there see the Dominican getting bounced from the World Baseball Classic by the Netherlands of all teams? Anyone? I mean, damn. That was a helluva performance.

The week that Wuz...

This entry is about the good, the bad, and the ugly - I'm going to start with the ugly. Most of the rest sounds pretty inconsequential after the first item, but this is important...

I'm a regular reader of TheCoffinCorner, written by a fellow New England sports fan by Dave from Portland, ME. Dave and his wife had some tough news this week, and need all the good thoughts that can be sent their way. It's hard to write eloquently about a four-year old girl with cancer, or to make things sound noble. I will keep this simple and straight forward -

I have two daughters, one turned seven on Friday, the other is a year and a half old. I know that if either were diagnosed with cancer, it would be devastating. At best, I can only imagine what Dave is going through. I would not change places with him for the world. But I would like to ask my readers to keep him and his family, but his daughter in particular, in your thoughts, and those of you who are religious, your prayers. Send good karma, vibes and any other positive feelings her way in her fight against rhabdomyosarcoma, a cancer most commonly found in children under five.

Good luck little one, we're all pulling for you.

As for some of the sports news, as trivial as it sounds in light of Dave's current issue...

So...Terrell Owens is now a member of the Bills. This is their answer to the offense that disappeared in the second half of the season - a 36-year old wide receiver whose best days are behind him, who failed to break the 40-yard barrier in eight games last season, who broke 90 yards only three games last season (against the 22nd, and 32nd pass defenses in the league before putting up 103 against the Eagles in a 44-6 loss in the final game of the season...way to have an impact TO). Those three games accounted for 416 of his yards on the season. The other 13 games - 669, or a 51 1/3 yard per game average.

The single smartest thing that the Bills have done with this is protect themselves with a one-year contract.

Here are some of the problems with him, outside of the aforementioned issues (and some elaboration of the above) -

• Even the best receivers in the history of the game experience a big drop-off between the ages of 35 and 36, and he already showed last season that he's heading in the wrong direction in regards to being an impact player.
• He has been among the league leaders in dropped passes for at least the last three seasons, and I'm willing to bet that if I dug, that goes back much farther.
• What happens to an over-the-hill receiver that has trouble with contact come December in Buffalo?
• Sure, he's likely to be less trouble over one season, except he's going to an offense that is committed to pounding the ball - What's the over-under for him pitching a fit and ripping a young, not-quite-there QB a new one because he's not getting the ball enough? Embarrassing the coach on the sideline?

Yep, the Bills got 'im. They can have him.

I called it on Shawn Springs. Don't be surprised if, sometime after the draft, Jason Taylor comes in for a visit.

These are the sort of veterans that Belichick likes to have around to teach the young guys. I wouldn't be surprised if Springs parlays an incentive laden one-year deal into a multi-year stay in New England - if he stays healthy this season.

And once again - may everything work out well, Dave, we're thinking of you and yours.

Bargain shopping and other thoughts

After the signings of Fred Taylor and Chris Baker in the wake of the trade that sent Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel to Kansas City, the Patriots have approximately $16 million in cap space to play with. Realistically, that's not enough with which to make a big splash given the fact that has to account for free-agents and the draft. If you figure half of that goes to the rookie pool and tying up Vince Wilfork to an extension accounts for about half of that (I wouldn't be surprised if they decide that it's either Richard Seymour or Wilfork and they decide it's Wilfork that's the more important player), that leaves about $8 million for free agents. They'll probably try to keep about $2 million to $2.5 million in space heading into the season to cover unemployed veterans for emergency signings.

That leaves between $5 million to $6 million to bring in free agents, which means bargain hunting. Keep in mind that these are rough numbers ganked from http://www.patscap.com/ and I would say that we're looking at a plus or minus about 2 to 2.5 million.

So, who could the Pats get on the cheap - maybe on one year incentive laden deals?

Well, first you have to ask where are they looking to shore up - I'm guessing that we're looking at a receiver or two, a D-end/Linebacker sort, a veteran O-lineman and maybe a couple of defensive backs. I would rank the needs like this -

1. DB
2. Pass rusher
3. WR
4. OL

As such, here are some of the moves I could see the Pats making (not that they will, but none of these would surprise me) -

If Bill Belichick believes he can get them for the minimum plus incentives for games played, I wouldn't be surprised to see either Shawn Springs or Mike Peterson on contracts like that. Peterson, if he can stay healthy, would be a good platoon player to move in and out with Tedy Bruschi. Springs, when healthy, is a highly talented cover corner that can play the league's best receivers one-on-one. Another option to bolster the pass rush, also on an incentive laden contract, is Jason Taylor. I think it's unlikely, and I wouldn't be surprised if he fades into retirement, but I think he would be tempted by what he might see as his best opportunity to go out with a championship. Forget about Lawyer Milloy returning - it's not happening given the fact that the reasons leaked for his release are the same reasons that got him out of New England and Buffalo.

I would also look at maybe Darren Sharper or the likes of Daven Holly and Sean Jones who played under Romeo Crennel on the Browns to come in to bolster the defensive backfield.

With Jabar Gaffney gone to Denver, the Pats' third best receiver over the last couple of seasons has left the building. I would think that the braintrust is going to add here - maybe someone like Devery Henderson or Shaun McDonald. These are guys that have a lot of talent, can be deep threats, but aren't going to get a look if they're trying to get starter's scratch, because neither has shown they're anything more than a third receiver.

I'm not even going to venture a guess at the extra offensive linemen that they will try to bring in, but I'm certain they will given the fact they have every year since Belichick has been coach.

The other end of the rainbow...

At the other end of the spectrum is the Redskins who have fired off one of the dumbest contracts in the history of the NFL. Yup, I'm talking Albert Haynesworth.

Yes, the volatile Haynesworth has been one of the best nosetackles in the game, if not the best, over the last two seasons. In those two seasons he's rocked 91 tackles, 14.5 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. Of course that was done on consecutive one year contracts (45 tackles per season, 7.25 sacks, and 1.5 forced fumbles).

When Haynesworth was on a longterm contract his first five seasons he averaged 36 tackles per season, 1.9 sacks, and had a total of 3 forced fumbles. This is not a guy that plays hard when he knows he's set from a financial perspective.

He's also played in 16 games only once in his career and has averaged just under 13 games per season and has averaged 12.3 games per season since his sophomore season.

Taylor-made trade

So Jason Taylor is now on the Redskins for the reasonable ransom of Miami's second-rounder next year, and a sixth-rounder in the 2010 draft. The debate has begun as to who won - who made out best at the end of the day.

Let's begin by noting that no one will really know, of these two teams, who the real winner is for a couple of years, but here are some thoughts on the trade...

In the long run, it's likely that the Dolphins were winners here if you consider the following...a second rounder and a sixth rounder used right can amount to some significant long-term help. Consider Matt Light (2nd rounder) and Tom Brady (6th rounder), or Adalius Thomas (6th rounder) and Lawyer Milloy (2nd rounder) - all of those are players that have contributed long-term in the NFL. Especially considering Jason Taylor's expressed intent to retire at the end of next season, the Dolphins team has a chance to make this trade work out well for them - but that depends on Bill Parcells' ability to buy the right groceries.

As for the Redskins...well, sure, they get a six time pro-bowler, but this isn't the first time under Dan Snyder's watch that the 'Skins have brought in a multiple pro-bowler...Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Jerome Mathis, and Mark Brunell are a small cross-section of the high end players that the Snyder regime has brought in. They are members of a fraternity of Washington players that accounted for 26 pro-bowls previous to signing with Snyder in the nation's capital (Taylor will bring the number to 32).

The 'Skins, of course, are hoping to break that jinx with Taylor, but even if they do, they're only getting a season, maybe two from him. I would be surprised if he played any longer, given his very public sentiments to get involved in other post-career endeavors. Given the division, and everything the 'Skins have going against them, I don't see Taylor in a significantly better situation...

Yes, the Redskins made great strides last season finishing third in the NFC East with a 9-7 record - this in spite of a quarterback who often looked not-quite-ready for prime time. However, they are starting from scratch with a new coaching staff and a new system in a division in which they have the fourth best quarterback and an unproven commodity at coach.

Taylor now finds himself anchoring a defense on a team looking up at the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants, the defending NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys, and perennial contender Philadelphia Eagles.

Let's look at it a little differently - if Taylor had his choice of teams, rather than being shipped in a trade, yet still limiting it to the NFC East, is he choosing the team with Super Bowl winning coach Tom Coughlin? The team with Andy Reid, the only coach to go to the NFC Championship Game four consecutive seasons? Or Wade Phillips who has had only one losing season as a head coach? Or Jim Zorn, a career coordinator? I'm guessing it's not the last one.

So, who is really the winner in this case?

I don't think it's either the 'Skins who get a one year rental or the 'Phins who get question marks.

Nope.

It's Tom Brady and Matt Light.

While the Patriots have beaten the Dolphins pretty regularly over the last couple of years, the games against them have been about a struggle. Jason Taylor has been a big part of that, making life miserable twice a year for Brady and Light and now he's gone.

They win.