Buying the groceries

As I suspected, the Patriots aren't making a big splash, but they are going about signing a number of solid, proven veterans that should help in the short-run, and could potentially help in the long-run.

They have managed to, with four simple signings (and one re-signing), replace Lonnie Paxton who followed Josh McDaniels to Denver, upgrade from Lamont Jordan at running back, keep needed depth along the offensive line while retaining their largest fullback, and significantly upgraded their defensive backfield.

Discounting the Nathan Hodel signing since it's swapping one long-snapper for another, let's take a quick look at each signing and some of the other transactions the Patriots have had to bolster the team, or retain personnel -

Former Jacksonville Jaguars running back Fred Taylor is probably the biggest signing of the bunch. Taylor, while slightly older, represents an upgrade over the talented but erratic Lamont Jordan. Jordan was a solid part of the running back rotation last season, just as Taylor is likely to be this season. Taylor is more apt to be able to pick up the slack as a starter than Jordan, given the fact that Taylor is coming off a career low in attempts (based on playing in at least 10 games) which still would have qualified as Jordan's third highest number of attempts in a season.

While Taylor at 32 is on the downside of his career, he likely still has enough juice left to be a part time impact player.

Russ Hochstein was re-signed and in so doing the team retained one of their most versatile offensive linemen, and with Heath Evans moving on to the Saints, Hochstein moves to the top of the depth chart as the team's blocking back.

On March 5 the Pats traded for Eagles receiver Greg Lewis, a burner who is likely to be the third receiver. Lewis has shown flashes, and has apparent upside, but has yet to show the sort of consistency that Jabar Gaffney gave the third receiver position. If it works out, Lewis gives Tom Brady a speedster who will likely draw single coverage while defenses double up on Wes Welker underneath and Randy Moss on the other side. If Lewis fails to have a breakout season in this offense, it's unlikely that he will ever blossom.

I like the Shawn Springs signing, but was surprised that it was a three year contract. Given his history of injury, I expected a one-year incentive laden contract, maybe with an option. That said, Springs represents an upgrade over what the Patriots had in their backfield last season. Springs also is the sort of veteran presence that Bill Belichick likes to bring in as a player-coach to bring the youngsters along. As an aside, given Buffalo's recent move, Springs was instrumental in holding Terrell Owens to five receptions for 38 yards in the Redskins second meeting with the Cowboys last season.

The signing I like best, however, is the 27-year old Leigh Bodden. Bodden, cut by the Detroit Lions after only one season, previously played for Romeo Crennel's Browns. In Crennel's defense, Bodden excelled - in three seasons under the former Patriots coordinator, and in defenses that were in the bottom half of the rankings, the 6' 1" corner racked up 11 interceptions, 45 tackles, and 177 tackles.

I still say that the Pats sign Jason Taylor before training camp and he comes in to play as a 'tweener D-end/linebacker in order to bolster the pass rush because, like Springs, he's the sort of veteran player that Belichick loves to bring in at a discount.

Other quick thoughts -

Am I the only person out there that thinks Jay Cutler is an idiot - the man demands the Broncos trade him, then gets pissy when they actually try to do so. Am I the only one missing something here? I mean, sure, he threw for 4,526 yards last season, but he also racked up seven interceptions to six touchdowns in the final six games of the season when Denver went 2-4 after starting 6-4. That final stretch included a one touchdown, two interception performance against the Chargers in the final game of the season, the game that would have sealed up the Western Conference and a trip to the playoffs.

Any, and I mean, did anyone out there see the Dominican getting bounced from the World Baseball Classic by the Netherlands of all teams? Anyone? I mean, damn. That was a helluva performance.

The Groganator

For all the complaining a segment of the Patriots fan base was doing a month ago about Matt Cassel (I did repeatedly recommend patience), the man has done something that no quarterback in the history of the team has done. Not Steve Grogan, not Drew Bledsoe, not even Tom Brady. Easily the three best quarterbacks in the history of the franchise.

He passed for back to back 400 yard games.

Given the fact that Bledsoe and Brady are the two most prolific passers in the history of the franchise, it's nothing short of amazing that this is the first time in franchise history that a quarterback has accomplished this feat. Of course, last week, in a losing effort, Cassel became the first and only QB in league history to rush for at least 60 yards and pass for at least 400.

While there are those who have wondered out loud whether Cassel should be kept in place of Brady during this two week record setting stretch that the Pats signal caller has had, I am not one of them. Yes, Cassel has shown tremendous development, and is actually better at this point than Brady was at the same point in his development as a starter.

Consider -

After 11 games in 2001, the Patriots were 6-5, but 7-4 in 11 games in which Brady played. Through those 11 games, this is how Brady stacked up -

198 completions on 302 attempts (65.6 percent completions) with 16 touchdowns against 7 interceptions. Brady also rushed the ball 25 times for 36 yards and no touchdowns.

If you want to throw out the Jets game because he was only in for a couple of series, and include, instead, the Browns game so we're only looking at Brady starts, then we're looking at 8-3 through 11 Brady starts with the following numbers -

212 completions on 320 attempts for (66.25 percent) with 16 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He rushed 29 times for 33 yards.

Cassel through his 11 games (10.75), is 238 of 359 (66.3 percent), with 13 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Cassel has also rushed 53 times for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns. The team has improved to 7-4.

While it is important to note that Cassel is indeed working with a better receiving corps than Brady did in those years, it's just as important to note that Brady was not playing behind a makeshift (right side of the offensive) line for the first half of those ten or eleven games, nor was he playing through games with the team's top running backs on the shelf for a significant period of time.

That 2001 team's defense gave up an average of 16.625 points per game, meanwhile this year's edition went into this game giving up 19.4. That number went up to 20.2 by the end of the contest against the 'Phins.

Not a reassuring statistic as the team makes a playoff push.

They might make things interesting in the post-season (I still firmly believe they will make the big dance for the chance at the Super Bowl), but if that young defense (and they are young) doesn't figure out how to close out a team on third and long, they're likely to get eliminated before reaching Tampa in February.

But if they don't make it, it won't be Cassel's fault.

Reminiscent of Steve Grogan, Cassel seems to have improved at finding his check-downs and feeling when the pressure is imminent. He's begun to make plays with his feet to either buy time, or to take advantage of great gaping holes up the middle.

Most of all, Cassel has used this opportunity to hit the jackpot.

An unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, Cassel is likely to be closely scrutinized by a number of teams which are likely to do two things - line his pockets, and put him behind an O-line that could get him killed. I'm figuring the only potential suitor that could be a good fit (ie: not get Cassel killed) is going to go through the same hostage situation that Green Bay did this past off-season, and likely stay out of the Cassel sweepstakes because of the Brett Favre potential cap hit. Otherwise, I think Cassel is looking at such bottom-feeding stalwarts as Detroit, Kansas City, San Francisco and depending on the contract situation of their incumbents, I could also see St. Louis, or possibly Seattle come calling (the last two are unlikely due to the money left on the contracts of Marc Bulger and Matt Hasselbeck respectively, but interest wouldn't surprise me).

Stigma

There are a lot of things that can cause stigma in professional sports - failure to make the big play; cheating; steroid use; lying when caught; gaining a reputation as a bad clubhouse guy; being a thug off the field; being relegated to the bench. These are some of the most common reasons. Often the stigma exists most strongly with the fans, sometimes with coaches, and occasionally with general managers.

Teams gain it for bad personnel decisions, bad coaching decisions, and, often, bad decisions from ownership.

Players like Pacman Jones have painted themselves into a corner with both fans and GM's, likely having to deal with all sorts of specially designed restrictions built into his contract, should he ever get signed again to an NFL deal. Randy Moss will have his Raider years dog him well after retirement, when Hall of Fame voters are asked to look at the body of his work.

The Patriots will have Spygate follow them, primarily with the fans of the game, just as Mike Shanahan, unless he wins another Super Bowl, will be questioned for his inability to get his team back to the big game without John Elway.

To touch a little further on the Spygate stigma - it certainly doesn't seem to have hurt the team within the free agent market, or the team's ability to re-sign its own. Sure, both Randall Gay and Asante Samuel jumped ship, but Samuel was expected to leave (his decision had nothing to do with winning, as much as he might publicly claim otherwise...who out there really believes that the Eagles are closer than the Patriots to getting back to the big game?). But this is what has happened with free agents since the final whistle blew on the Giants' championship season...

• Linebacker TJ Slaughter was signed on February 12
• Wideout Kelley Washington was resigned Feb 29
• Long snapper Lonnie Paxton was resigned Feb 29
• Tedy Bruschi was resigned on Feb 29
• Wide receiver Sam Aiken was signed on March 3
  
• Randy Moss was resigned on March 3
• Corner Jason Webster was signed on March 4
• Jabar Gaffney was resigned on March 5
• Safety Tank Williams and corner Lewis Sanders were signed March 6
  

After all of that, it appears as though Carolina Panthers linebacker Adam Seward expects to receive a contract offer from the Pats.

Of the above, of the five free agents signed away from other teams, almost all have started at one point or another. The others are career special teamers or back ups, including Seward. Seward is the most interesting case.

Sure, Slaughter has been a starter in the league, and adds good depth to an aging linebacking corps with hold-over starters are Bruschi, Adalius Thomas, and Mike Vrabel. But Seward is intriguing.

Seward is a career back up and special teamer coming off his first NFL contract. He never managed to crack the starting line-up in Carolina due to injuries, and a deep linebacking corps on the Panthers.

Seven years ago this March 16 the Patriots signed a linebacker with the stigma of being a career back-up, unable to break into the starting line-up of a Steelers team rife with all-pros at the linebacker position. Mike Vrabel went on to become a defensive linchpin of a team that went to four Super Bowls and won three.

I'm not saying that Seward is the next Mike Vrabel, but it should be interesting to see, if signed, whether or not the 26-year old former teammate of former Patriot Ryan Claridge gets a shot at the starting inside spot next to Bruschi, a shot at shaking the stigmas of special teamer, injury prone, and back up.

There's a lot of speculation that the Patriots will address linebacker in the draft, possibly with their seventh pick, despite the fact that Bill Belichick and his brain trust have not addressed the position with an early rounder since Belichick's Cleveland days. If Seward is signed, that will make two linebackers, three DB's and a wide-out added to the team.

Should the young linebacker sign and pan out, this will be compared to the Vrabel signing. If he is signed, the team overlooks a stud in the early rounds with the intention of giving Seward the job and he doesn't pan out...well, let's just say I can see the "Seward's Folly" headlines right now.

Thoughts and observations at the end of a season

The Patriots took us for one hell of a ride. Eighteen straight before losing in the Super Bowl.

Sure, right now that's a Pyrrhic victory.

But as I have previously noted, this will, one day, be reflected on in the same manner as the Buffalo Bills achievement of making it to four straight Super Bowls.

Now that it is over, however, the Patriots have to look to the future.

Someone out there, probably the Jets, is going to vastly overpay for free-agent corner Asante Samuel's services. There's also a chance that the Jets will pursue free-agent Randall Gay as well, although I can see him potentially taking less money (than he would get from the Jets) to stay with the Patriots due to the potential of an expanding roll with the Patriots with the impending absence of Samuel. A side note - for all the negative that has been said about Ellis Hobbs by New England fans, he actually had a solid year statistically.

First published in the Providence Journal -

According to Stats Inc., an independent sports information and statistical analysis company, opposing teams threw in Hobbs’ direction 106 times this season, ranking him 13th, but Hobbs gave up only four touchdowns. There were 44 defensive backs in the league who gave up more touchdowns than Hobbs.

Receivers caught only 58 passes in those 106 pass attempts (54.7 success rate), which is a low ratio compared to other defenders in the league. Among defensive backs thrown against at least 30 times, 156 of them were less successful than Hobbs...

Rodney Harrison, who is under contract for another year has announced his intention to play at least one more season - meaning that Eugene Wilson is the likely odd man out in the safety rotation.

The fate of Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau are still in question on the defensive side of the ball, and Rosevelt Colvin is scheduled for a jump in salary.

I wouldn't be surprised to see at least two of the three back in uniform next year, with one of them very likely being Colvin.

On the other side of the ball, the only major change I see is the team terminating their contract with Donte Stallworth. While I have my doubts that Stallworth will wear a Patriot uniform next season, it wouldn't surprise me if he renegotiated his deal.

Texas toast revisited...

I love agent and lawyer speak...it's a lot like marketing speak. It's not a doll...it's an action figure (dolls are for girls). It's not a "used car" any more...it's "certified pre-owned." It's no longer a retirement home, it's "an active seniors community."

By now everyone knows that Roger Clemens agents, the Hendricks Brothers, have put out their little piece of propaganda in an effort to show there was nothing unusual in an athlete getting better in his mid-thirties after three straight years of health issues and declining performance...you know, the time period when no player in the history of any sport got better without the aid of performance enhancing drugs?

Well, here's a little tidbit from the AP report about some statistics guys at the Ivy League's University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School - one of the most renowned business schools in the world had to say about the little report and the Clemens' party reactions -

His agent, Randy Hendricks, responded Sunday to an article by four professors from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School who criticized an 18,000-word statistical report Hendricks Sports Management issued to rebut accusations that the pitcher's career rebounded about the time he is accused by McNamee of using performance-enhancing drugs.

Hendricks' report compared Clemens' performance during the second half of his career to those of Nolan Ryan, Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson.

"By comparing Clemens only to those who were successful in the second act of their careers, rather than to all pitchers who had a similarly successful first act, the report artificially minimizes the chances that Clemens' numbers will seem unusual. Statisticians call this problem selection bias," professors Eric Bradlow, Shane Jensen, Justin Wolfers and Adi Wyner wrote in Sunday's Times.

They compared Clemens' ERA and walks plus-hits-per-inning with those of 31 pitchers since 1968 with 3,000 innings and 10 or more starts in at least 15 seasons.

"The available data on Clemens's career strongly hint that some unusual factors may have been at play in producing his excellent late-career statistics," they said, while adding, "in any analysis of his career statistics, it is impossible to say whether this unusual factor was performance-enhancing drugs."

Hendricks said the criteria used by the professors was flawed, and that they ignored criteria such as Clemens' ERA margin vs. that of the league and strikeouts. Hendricks' report tried to refute any perceived misconceptions that Clemens' career was on the downside when he left Boston after the 1996 season. While the professors claimed Clemens was in decline in his late 20s, Hendricks pointed out Clemens was an All-Star in consecutive years from age 27-29, finished second in Cy Young at age 28, then won it the following year.

"The professors make the mistake of thinking that his career arc should look like the arc of every other pitcher in their selected group," Hendricks said in a statement. "These 'statisticians' are engaging in precisely the kind of insinuation with their words that they say cannot be proven by statistics."

So...the Hendricks want us to believe that his career compares favorably to other pitchers based only on the statistics they chose for the report...not based on what's considered the accepted methodology for any proper academic study. As long as the general public doesn't get to hear about improper methodology like "selection bias" this is something that might work on a handful of people who have been undecided in this whole charade...people who like to be spoon-fed their facts, and don't want to dig a little deeper for the truth. But to anyone that really sits back and looks at some basic facts of the human body and athletics at the highest levels, this just smacks of more desperation.

On a sadder note...

I would like to take a moment to note the passing of Roy Scheider.

Sure, he wasn't an athlete, and wasn't known for taking rolls in sports films like Burt Reynolds in The Longest Yard, or Dennis Quaid in movies like Everybody's All-American and Breaking Away, but he still had his moments - he had a small uncredited part in Paper Lion, the George Plympton bio-pic starring Alan Alda, and of course, for sport-fishermen everywhere, Jaws. Beyond that, I suppose you could make an argument for the movie Marathon Man, in which he plays the brother of Dustin Hoffman who is training for the Olympics.

Scheider was an excellent actor, at the top of his game in the 1970's through to the early 1980's, including a very deserved best actor Oscar nod for his portrayal of Joe Gideon, director Bob Fosse's alter ego, in 1979's All That Jazz.

But the reason I mention him here is this exchange he had while playing Dr. Heywood Floyd with John Lithgow's Walter Curnow in 2010...

Heywood Floyd: I'd love a hot dog.
Walter Curnow: Astrodome. Good hot dogs there.
Heywood Floyd: Astrodome? You can't grow a good hot dog indoors. Yankee Stadium. September. The hot dogs have been boiling since opening day in April. Now that's a hot dog.
Walter Curnow: The yellow mustard or the darker kind?
Heywood Floyd: The darker kind.
Walter Curnow: Very important.

Anyone who spends time at the ballpark gets this.

But, in regards to Scheider, I think it's more appropriate that he be remembered with this exchange from All That Jazz with Angelique, who is symbolic of death...

Joe Gideon: No, nothing I ever do is good enough. Not beautiful enough, it's not funny enough, it's not deep enough, it's not anything enough. Now, when I see a rose, that's perfect. I mean, that's perfect. I want to look up to God and say, "How the hell did you do that? And why the hell can't I do that?"
Angelique: Now that's probably one of your better con lines.
Joe Gideon: Yeah, it is. But that doesn't mean I don't mean it.

It's showtime folks!

Short timers...

With the close of the season, I have been reflecting upon who will and who won't be back in a Patriots uniform next year...some of which I think is dependent on whether or not the Pats win the Super Bowl this year, but this is what I think...

Gone regardless, or unless...

Asante Samuel is not likely to be back for the 2008 campaign. I just can't see the Pats ponying up the money that Samuel will demand.

Eugene Wilson. After a strong first couple of years, Wilson, whether due to injury or some other reason, has backslid in each of the last three seasons, this year losing his starting position to James Sanders. With Rodney Harrison under contract through the 2008 season, and the need to continue the development of Brandon Meriweather, I just don't see the Pats bringing Wilson back.

Dante Stallworth. Stallworth signed a multi-year contract in joining the Patriots, however, with his contract scheduled to count for over $11 million against next season's salary cap, don't expect this to be any more than a one year contract that was more about rebuilding image and reputation around the league than it was about being with New England for the long haul. Unless Stallworth renegotiates that contract, and with Jabar Gaffney often showing up as the third receiver, don't expect to see Stallworth in the red, white, and blue come September.

If they win a ring...

Troy Brown, Tedy Bruschi, Junior Seau - These three players have 45 seasons of NFL experience between the three of them, 29 of those playing with the Patriots. Their last several years have been haunted by injury, limiting their effectiveness. Bruschi and Seau have been healthy this year, however, there have been times that their age has shown.

All that said, if the Pats won it all last season, I think that both Bruschi and Seau would have retired at the end of last season.

Others that I wouldn't rule out leaving once a ring is on their finger...

Rodney Harrison, Kyle Brady - Both of these players are under contract through the end of next season, however they are the two other old-timers on the team with 27 years of experience between the two of them. Harrison and Brady have had a few injury issues of late, and Brady even said when he signed with the Patriots that he was looking for a place where he had a good chance of winning a Super Bowl. I think Harrison hanging them up at the end of this season as unlikely, but it wouldn't surprise me.

There will doubtless be others that will be gone - borderline cases, back-ups, special-teamers - but these are, I believe, the top name candidates for moving on. Randy Moss will be a free-agent at the end of the season, but I have a hunch that he will take a little less to stay somewhere that he is happy, and he knows he's unlikely to find a quarterback like Brady elsewhere unless he goes to Indianapolis.

Rumor mills and reactions

With the source credited as the New York Daily News, Yahoo reported the following rumor -

the Los Angeles Dogers, Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox have the best chances of landing Alex Rodriguez in 2008. The cost? How about as much as $30 million per season?
Longer shots to sign A-Rod – this is all assuming he opts out of his contract after this season – are the Chicago White Sox, Chicago Cubs, New York Mets and San Francisco Giants.

The reactions to this have been fascinating, ranging from the simple, "we'll take him," or, "we don't want him," to the reasonably well thought out post of this person -

Quit B.S.ing all you who said "Hope he doesn't come here" He's the best player
of this generation and when he's done he'll be the best ever. No true fan
wouldn't want that added to their hometown team. Don't think I say this as an
A-Rod fan, I'm a Mariners fan and have more reason to hate him than any of you
but get serious. No one can stand him here but if he were re-signed he'd get a
standing ovation for everything he did. He's that good. Like him or hate him but
don't deny he's the best and any GM who had the chance would be an idiot to pass
on him. Sure, he's had a rough time in the playoffs for the Yankees but if he
isn't on that club they don't even make the playoffs a few of those years. He's
not the problem, the pitching staff having one starter younger than Yoda is the
problem..... GO MARINERS!!!!
Posted by ateabug1 on Tuesday, Jul 10, 2007
5:21 pm EDT

It's well though out, but it's not right.

A lot is made about him being the highest paid player in the game. If he can get that sort of contract, more power to him. But he needs to go into it with the understanding that when he doesn't produce as the highest paid player in the game, the fans will come at him hard like they have done in New York. If your team is giving you the highest paid player in the game, then that player damn well better produce as the best player in the game. A-Rod hasn't.

Statistically, A-Rod is a freak. If looked at based solely on his regular season numbers, not broken down by month, or what inning he's batting in, Rodriguez looks like the best player in the game. He might end up the all-time home-run leader, and he is likely to finish his career with numbers that will get him into the Hall-of-Fame on a near unanimous first ballot.

Hell, he's the best bat the Yankees have had this season.

Despite the numbers, as a Red Sox fan, the closest I want this man to my team is on the Yankees - particularly if he opts out of his current contract in the hopes of getting a bigger contract. Why?

He's about as good under pressure as a soft-boiled egg.

When it began unravelling for the Yankees in the 2004 post-season, A-Rod slapped at Bronson Arroyo's glove as the pitcher ran to cover first in a blatant display of interference and unsportsman-like conduct. This year he yelled as he ran from second to third, interfering with the shortstop's ability to field a ball in Toronto during a game the Yankees were winning. He has been dubbed by the New York media as Mr. April - not just a shot at his post-season woes, but a knock that is meant to evoke former Yankee Dave Winfield who was dubbed Mr. May by George Steinbrenner back in 1982. At least Winfield made it to May.

These are just the tidbits that pop to mind, never mind the rumblings that he sets himself apart from his team-mates, or that a $30 million annual salary, even for the Red Sox, would make it prohibitive to go out and sign other people who might help the team.

The Angels? Historically they haven't spent anywhere near that to sign free-agents. Dodgers? I would be surprised.

The Cubs, given their recent spending, might make a run, but realistically, I think the Yankees will pony up with the biggest offer, although I could see the Mets making a serious run.

I'd rather see the Sox go out and sign or trade for someone like Mark Teixeira and move Kevin Youkilis to third if they're not going to resign Mike Lowell. As for moving him back to short? I'm not interested enough in him to even consider the possibility, which is saying a lot considering the lack of production the Sox have from Julio Lugo.

Clearing the dust off the metaphorical shelves of my mind

Well, I think the Patriots are officially the winners of this year's Free-agent Bowl. Typically the winners are the Washington Redskins who go about free-agency with no real regard for what they are trying to accomplish on the field.

To wit - last year the Redskins landed the biggest names available in free-agency and via trades last year in defenders Andre Carter, Adam Archuleta, as well as Antwaan Randle El, and Brandon Lloyd. The problem was Archuleta is the same sort of player as safety Sean Taylor - a hitter with mediocre cover skills. The two did not complement each other in the defensive backfield creating a defensive liability deep in the secondary.

The Patriots seem to be trying to fill all their needs before the draft so that they can focus solely on drafting the best possible player to fit their system rather than having to draft for need.

Entering this off-season the Patriots needed to get younger and faster at linebacker, needed to deepen the receiving corps, needed a blocking tight-end, and needed a back-up running back. If they could get help for the secondary, that would have been a bonus.

Including resignings, this is what they have done -

Adalius Thomas, LB (5yr, $37.5M, $3.4M v. next season's cap)
Larry Izzo, LB (1yr, $820K, $482K v. next season's cap)

Heath Evans, FB (2yr, $1.56M, $720K v. next season's cap)
Sammy Morris, RB (4yr, $7M, $2.125 v. v. next season's cap)

Billy Yates, G/C (3yr, $2.1M, $845 v. next season's cap)
Kyle Brady, TE (2yr, $5.3M, $2.3 v. next season's cap)

Donte Stallworth, WR (6yr, $33.1M $3.6M v. next season's cap)
Kelley Washington, WR (5yr, $22M, estimated $3M v. next season's cap)
Wes Welker, WR (5yr, $18.1M, $1.7M v. next year's cap)

Asante Samuel, CB (1yr, $7.9M, same v. next year's cap - franchised and numbers are subject to change)

The contract numbers were compiled from multiple sources and might not be exact in regards to next year's cap hits.

While the numbers in the contracts may seem puzzling - particularly in the cases of Washington and Stallworth - some of the deals might not really be what they appear. Realistically, Stallworth and Washington are on one year deals that can be extended if the Patriots pick up the options of the players around this time next year.

Both are regarded as highly talented players but both have been plagued by injuries, and Stallworth has had some hits to his reputation as a touch on the lazy side (he has been fined for showing up late to meetings and oversleeping in training camp). If the structure of the deals isn't incentive enough for these players (both of whom gave up more guaranteed money from the Dolphins to play in New England), then the Pats can cut their losses at the end of the season without incurring dead money on the cap.

It's also obvious who the Patriots are betting on as a long-haul sort of player. To pick up Stallworth for next year the option will put his cap hit over $11 million, Washington's hit would likely be in the $6 million to $7 million range. Somehow I get the feeling that Stallworth is one and done with the Pats.

Heard around the 'Net...
Riding the message boards before free-agency I saw a lot of fans from other teams talking about how free-agents don't want to come to New England and play for Belichick because of the Pats penny pinching ways. So much for that idea.

...and on the same subject; for those of you out there upset that the Patriots are spending money to make themselves better, Thomas, Evans, Washington, and Stallworth all took less to sign with the Patriots than they would have made elsewhere. What a refreshing concept in professional sports - taking less money in the hopes of winning.

The car appears to be stuck in reverse...
Jerry Jones must be stuck on permanent meltdown without Bill Parcells to temper his hand. This off season he has hired Wade Phillips as his head coach, and then its been down-hill. Rumblings among long-time friends of Parcells is that he was indeed tired of having to deal with prima-donna Terrell Owens and when Jones didn't release TO that Parcells decided it was time to hang up the whistle. This is the same TO that it has now come out that he couldn't be bothered to learn his playbook and had to be told in the huddle where he needed to be.

Funny thing about that - when Drew Bledsoe was still starting and throwing primarily to Terry Glenn all you heard was TO whine about how he wasn't getting the ball. Interesting how, to this day, you haven't heard Bledsoe say a thing about how maybe he would have thrown TO more balls if the receiver knew where he was supposed to be.

Then, after siding with TO in this little circus called Big D, Jones goes out and signs one of the league's worst starting offensive linemen, Leonard Davis, to a seven year $49 million contract.

I guess Jones learned nothing after driving Jimmy Johnson out.

Bitterfans...
I posted my AL Central predictions over at Bitterfans yesterday. Go on over and take a look, I'll wait for you.

Genarlow Wilson and the idiots in the Georgia legislature...
Eric Johnson (R-Savannah, GA), the self-appointed executioner in the case of Genarlow Wilson has a really twisted view on justice. Here is what he wrote about his efforts to block legislation that would allow the courts to go back and review Wilson's case -

Mr. Wilson decided to fight – and he was convicted by a jury of his peers. (My
personal opinion is that the jury would have preferred to convict him of the rape charge due to sex with the older girl after she was passed out and incapable of consenting, but since she had earlier had consensual sex, they felt they couldn’t. So they used the minor to convict him. Remember, they could have found him “not guilty” and didn’t.) Between conviction and sentencing, he was offered [a plea bargain which would have labeled him a sexual predator] instead of the mandatory 10 year sentence. He refused and accepted the sentence. That offer, by the way, is still available today. He can go before the judge any time and request a new trial. He and his lawyer appear to prefer martyrdom to the 5 additional years in prison. The Georgia Court of Appeals and the Supreme Court has upheld the conviction.
As you know, Georgia passed a very strict sexual predator law last year. Within the
new law was flexibility for prosecutors for consensual sex between a 15 and 17 year old. However, I don’t believe the legislature anticipated permitting leniency with a 6 on 1 situation as occurred here.
The issue before the Georgia General Assembly is SB 37. Genarlow Wilson’s case generated it, but it isn’t limited to this single case. The bill would allow defense attorneys to petition judges to re-open every case of a convicted sex offender who engaged in sodomy, child molestation, aggravated child molestation, or enticed a child for indecent purposes if the criminal and the minor were less than 4 years apart.
The victims involved could be as young as 13. I strongly oppose any legislative effort to require the courts to revisit over 1100 cases like Wilson’s. They violated the law. Police arrested them. District attorneys chose to prosecute them. Grand juries decided to indict them. Juries convicted them (when they could have found them “not guilty”). Each of those convictions left a scarred victim. The legislature should not second guess the process. We did not listen to the testimony or see the evidence. I hate to think of the emotional burden on thousands of victims, the cost to the taxpayers, and the delay in justice to pending court cases if this bill were to pass.
People seem to forget that a 15 year old girl was the victim. I stand with her. I also stand with future possible victims of politically correct apologists who want to turn loose convicted sexual predators. Remember, one of Mr. Wilson’s buddies impregnated a 12 year old while awaiting trial and has been convicted of statutory rape.
Wilson is NOT the victim. The minor girl in a hotel room with 6 stoned adults is the victim.
Usually, society complains about sentences that are perceived as too soft. Granted, this sentence was harsh. But it was MANDATORY under the law. Life comes with accountability for our decisions. Genarlow Wilson could have selected different friends to hang with. He could have joined millions of law-abiding teens all over the country enjoying New Years’ Eve without alcohol, drugs and sex. He could have left the hotel when “the fun” started. He didn’t.
He made a choice. Now his life has changed forever. That is sad. I hope other young men and girls will learn from this tragedy and avoid his errors.

Interestingly enough, that new law that he talks about was passed because of the problems that were found with the existing law due to the Wilson case. But it gets better. He claims to talk on behalf of the jury, saying they convicted Wilson of the one because he was guilty of the other and just couldn't get him on it, but at least one juror describes it very differently.

From an ABC interview with juror Marie Manigault:

She (Mar. 9, 2006), reported that the jury saw the rape case as very weak: “[I]t
wasn’t even an hour. We immediately saw the tape for what it was. We went back
in and saw it again. Then everybody immediately said not guilty.”

This doesn't even take into account the following:

• That the 15-year old for whom Wilson was convicted of "sexually preying" on initiated the act and had been sexually active since 11-years of age. You might stand with her senator, but I have a hunch she's not standing with you.
• That the senator would rather let people rot in a jail cell than get the spirit of the law right (the legislator who originally penned the law that Wilson was convicted under has publicly said that the way the law is being applied does not match the intent with which it was presented - and that it needs to be changed). He notes that there might be up to 1100 people jailed in Georgia under similar circumstances - that's an awful lot of people to be marked child predators that might not really fit that scarlet letter. I don't know about anybody else, but I'd rather have my courts overburdened in the name of getting the ruling right than my jails burdened with people that don't belong in them.
• I have read nowhere that Wilson was stoned, and as I understand it, none of the seven were 18 or older at the time, so calling the others "6 stoned adults" reeks of hyperbole in order to inflame the emotions of his voting base.
• From reading other accounts the jury didn't want to convict Wilson of anything and were very upset when they learned that he had to serve a mandatory ten-year sentence.
• He claims that the legislature "should not second guess the process." Isn't that exactly what the checks and balances system is all about? Isn't that how the Jim Crow laws were struck down? Some legislator somewhere second guessed a process and the laws changed.

God, I hate politicians.

Doubting Thomas

After the initial "Jaws"-like feeding frenzy of NFL free-agency many of the pundits are declaring the 49ers and Patriots the early winners and a number of them are even saying that the Patriots signing of Adalius Thomas is going to put the Pats in the pole-position for the Super Bowl next year. I don't quite buy it.

The Patriots were thirty minutes away from the big game this year, and likely would have beaten the Bears in Miami (although I will grant that's not guaranteed). However, when you look at what happened to that flu-stricken defense (not an excuse considering pretty much the same defense stricken with the flu got the job done against the Steelers in the playoffs two seasons earlier) in the second half against the Colts, I find it hard to believe they were one player away. I suppose you could argue that a healthy Rodney Harrison and Thomas would amount to two impact starters that they were missing - but you have to play with what you've got.

Here's what the Pats have - the most coveted defender on the free agent market who came from a team whose best players have traditionally failed when they have moved on.

Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli are very good evaluators of talent, often finding value over the years in late round draft picks (Tom Brady), other team's cast-offs (Heath Evans, Antowain Smith, Rodney Harrison), and rookie free-agents (Randall Gay, Stephen Neal). Even so, they have been very erratic in the free-agent market. Yes, they acquired Harrison via free-agency and Mike Vrabel that way - but they also brought in Monty Beisel, Chad Brown and even traded for former Raven Duane Starks.

On paper - I love the additions. Kyle Brady can be a punishing blocker, Wes Welker reminds me of Troy Brown - only faster, and with the Pats committing to Laurence Maroney as the feature back, I think Sammy Morris is a good complimentary piece. Of course the additions of Welker and Morris are important because they also hurt a division rival.

I don't expect Thomas to be the force he was in Baltimore in much the same way that Rosevelt Colvin's roll differs now than the one he filled in Chicago. Thomas will still be an impact player - and be used in multi-faceted rolls, but I figure Belichick will sit down with his defensive coordinator this offseason to look at how they can really utilize someone like Thomas. He'll get his sacks and tackles - there just might not be as many.

This looks like a stronger free agent class than they have had in several years, but until they strap on the helmets in September looks don't mean a thing.

From a GM standpoint - the other teams in the division, who I believe all made good steps in regards to improving themselves (the Jets getting a legitimate backfield threat, Buffalo shoring up the offensive line, and the Dolphins hoarding draft picks while getting Joey Porter), those GMs can't be happy that the Patriots still hold six picks in the draft (including two first rounders) and are expecting two compensatory picks for free agents lost last year. Trading away one of those first rounders could easily result in the Patriots having ten picks in the upcoming draft and still leave them with a first round selection.

And really - the Patriots have made a living this decade out of selecting players outside of the first round - Brady (6th round, 2000), Stephen Gostkowski (4th, 2006), Jarvis Green (4th, 2002), Ellis Hobbs (3rd, 2005), Nick Kaczur (3rd, 2005), Dan Koppen (5th, 2003), Matt Light (2nd, 2001), Garrett Mills (4th, 2006), Ryan O'Callaghan (5th, 2006), Patrick Pass (7th, 2000), Asante Samuel (4th, 2003), James Sanders (4th, 2005), David Thomas (3rd, 2006), Eugene Wilson (2nd, 2003).

So...in the second round since 2000 the Pioli and Belichick have found a starting left tackle and starting safety. (2)
Third round - their second string tight end, a starting corner/kick returner, and a starting right tackle. (3)
Fourth round - kicker, rotational defensive end that could start on other teams, a back-up tight-end/fullback, franchise cornerback, and back-up safety. (5)
Fifth round - Back-up right tackle with the size and potential talent to start, starting center (2)
Sixth round - franchise quarterback (1)
Seventh round - fullback (1)

Fourteen players who are significant contributors - most starters, in the later rounds with most of the damage in the middle rounds.

33rd Team Anybody?

With the advent of this year's free agent period finally upon us in the NFL and teams trying to jockey for more dollars to spend, a number of veteran players were cut or are known to be on the market as trade bait. With the numbers available at each position, takers for trades might be harder to come by.

With the numbers available, one could easily construct a reasonably competitive 33rd football club with these players. Particularly at specific positions.

Let's take a look at what a person could do (and for the sake of argument, let's call it the L.A. Fantasy - sure it sounds like a strip club, but when was the last season that you remember that didn't involve some incident with a professional athlete at a strip club?) -

For the purposes of this exercise, I will primarily be eyeing unrestricted free-agents, but will mention the occasional bit of trade bait on the premise that they may get released at some point due to the market. Also, I'm looking at the people that I think could give you a reasonably competitive 53 man roster - not necessarily a Super Bowl winner, but a team that could make the post-season if it gels.

Head Coach - Marty Shottenheimer (asst coaches at his discretion - sorry AJ).

Offense -

QB - Take your pick based on system and/or the line you can put together: Drew Bledsoe, Jeff Garcia, Joey Harrington, Brad Johnson. Known to be available for the right price - David Carr, Jake Plummer (although likely to just switch teams) and Trent Green.

Center - Seth McKinney, Trey Teague (also Tackle), Jeremy Newberry

Guard - Bennie Anderson, Ruben Brown, Chris Dielman, Grey Reugamer (also Center), Adam Timmerman, Ross Verba, Chris Villarrial

Tackle - Anthony Clement, Marc Columbo, Damion McIntosh, Luke Petitgout, Todd Steussie, Floyd Womack

Tight End - Christian Fauria, Daniel Graham, Doug Jolley, Jerramy Stevens, Jermaine Wiggins

Wide Reciever - Joe Horn, Eric Moulds, Brandon Stokley, Donte Stallworth, Dennis Northcutt, Sean Morey, Keenan McCardell

Running/Full Back - Correll Buckhalter, Reno Mahe, Fred McAfee, Dominic Rhodes, Cory Schlesinger, Anthony Thomas

Currently for offense, the biggest area of concern would be the running game.

Special Teams -

K - Morten Anderson, Billy Cundiff, Jay Feely

P - Todd Sauerbrun, Matt Turk

Defense -

DE - Bobby Hamilton, Rodney Bailey, ND Kalu, Patrick Kerney, Robaire Smith, Marcellus Wiley

DT - Jason Fisk, Dan Klecko, Monte Reagor, Keith Traylor, Jeff Zgonina

LB - LaVar Arrington (only if you could get him on the cheap), Tully Banta-Cain, Dexter Coakley, Don Davis, Na'il Diggs, Donnie Edwards, Carlos Emmons, Larry Izzo, Joey Porter, Junior Seau, Donnie Spragan, Adalius Thomas, London Fletcher-Baker, Napoleon Harris

CB - Phillip Buchanon, Nate Clements, Chidi Iwuoma, Nick Harper, David Macklin, Dexter McCleon, Fred Smoot

S - Jay Bellamy, Mike Doss, Ken Hamlin, Tebucky Jones, Michael Lewis, Mike Rumph, Lance Schulters, Tavares Tillman, Troy Vincent, Shaun Williams

Without even delving into the draft a person could put together a decent team. Sure it would still have holes - not a lot is available for running backs (would probably have to be solved through the draft), you could put together a decent but aging D-line - but depth might be an issue, there are some good linebackers available, but the defensive backfield could be suspect. There is good special-teams type depth though with people like Izzo, Morey, Tebucky Jones and Stone out there.

For my money -

QB - Bledsoe, Harrington, Rookie to develop (3)

OL - Newberry, Reugamer, Timmerman, Verba, Columbo, Petitgout, Steussie, Womack, two rookies (10)

TE - Graham, Jolley, Wiggins (3)

WR - Horn, Moulds, Stokley, Stallworth, Morey (5)

RB - Mahe, Rhodes, Schlesinger, Rookie (4)

25 on offensive roster

K - Feeley (1)

P - Sauerbrun (1)

2 Dedicated special teamers

DE - Hamilton, Bailey, Kerney, Wiley, Rookie (5)

DT - Fisk, Klecko, Traylor (3)

LB - Fletcher-Baker, Harris, Edwards, Izzo, Porter, Seau, A. Thomas, Rookie (8)

CB - Clements, Harper, McCleon, Smoot, Rookie (5)

S - Doss, Hamlin, T. Jones, Lewis, Vincent (5)

26 Defenders.

And that's my 53 man roster based on what's available and where I would draft for help and for the future. I believe this gives me a good group of veterans at every position with a strong core of special teamers, a veteran QB that can help bring along a rookie, a decent offensive line, talented receivers and tight ends, veteran leadership on both sides of the ball and a strong linebacking corps.

Would love to hear other roster ideas.