Story lines

There are some interesting story lines developing around sports right now. Some short term, some long term. I wanted to look at some...

Short term...

The Orlando Magic are one blown alley-oop away from being up 2-1 in the finals. Can they actually come back from down 2-0, or are they just making the NBA finals interesting?

Can the Penguins actually go into Detroit and pull off the upset?

Longer term stories to watch...

At some point this season the Yankees are going to win a game against the Red Sox. It could be tonight, it might not be until the next series. But will the Yankees inability to beat the Sox early in the season come back to haunt them late in the season? And on the flip side, how much could this early dominance by Boston play into the team winning the division?

Is David Ortiz actually showing signs of breaking out of his slump? He's riding a seven game hitting streak, and has had hits in 9 of his last 12. Even though it's the only time this season that he's had a hitting streak last more than three games, he hasn't exactly been tearing the cover off the ball. He's had only one multi-hit game in that stretch, and is 10 for 48 (.208) - even if you just look at his seven game hitting streak, he's a respectable 8 for 29 (.276), not exactly tearing the cover off the ball, but better. Right now it's a more compelling story than the Red Sox trials and tribulations at short stop. Will he or won't he?

As bad as Ortiz has been at the plate, Chien-Ming Wang has been worse on the mound for the Yankees. How far can they expect to go with a completely ineffective (defective?) Wang. They're already keeping their fingers crossed that AJ Burnett and Joba Chamberlain can stay healthy, what is their future (this season) going to look like if they have to rely on an imminently hittable Phil Hughes? And how long can Andy Pettitte go, with batters hitting over .280 against him?

I can't help but think over on the gridiron that the Patrick Pass signing was more or less to add depth at the position for training camp. Does he have a shot at the team? Sure, but I would be surprised if he were on the roster on opening day. Honestly, I would be surprised if he made it to the final cuts. It should be interesting to watch.

Of course, there's always the question of Tom Brady's knee, and how he will respond in game situations. A lot of people are talking about early season issues due to shaking the rust off, and while possible, I think Brady will get the time and reps to do that during the preseason games. What people aren't talking about is how the Patriots' schedule might impact their high-octane offense.

After the bye week in 2007, on the team's way to the only 16-0 regular season, the Patriots played seven consecutive cold weather games, four of which were in Gillette, the rest of which were at the Meadowlands, at Buffalo, and at Baltimore. In the coming season, after the bye the Patriots will play nine games. Four games are at home - Miami on November 8, the Jets on November 22, Carolina on December 13, and Jacksonville on December 27. Of those, only the Jets game starts later than 1:00, and the Miami game is early enough in the season that the weather may or may not be a factor.

Of the other five games, one is in Buffalo, three are either in domes or stadiums with retractible roofs (Indy, New Orleans, and Houston), and the other is in Miami. With about half of their remaining games being played either indoors or in warm places, the Patriots offense has a chance to really light things up...assuming Brady is perfectly healthy.

Outside of New England, these are the things to watch -

The play calling of the new staff in Indianapolis. This is going to go a long way towards determining where the Colts end up this season. Will it be a seamless transition from last year? Do all the coaches have a good instinct for the right defense at the right time? Will they find they have the right people at the right positions?

Is Rex Ryan the right man for the job in New York, and are they really going to make any noise with their current quarterback situation?

Can Chad Pennington stay healthy for the entire season? Pennington has struggled his entire career to put together back to back healthy seasons. When healthy he's a top ten QB in the league - no, he doesn't rack up big statistics, but he's smart and doesn't turn the ball over a whole lot, and wins, even with sub-par talent. If Pennington can't stay healthy, the Dolphins have no chance. Healthy, they can still get to the playoffs.

How is the Buffalo soap opera going to play out? Sure, they managed to get an extra weapon in Terrell Owens, but he's paired with, easily, the worst quarterback of his career (after dealing with Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, Drew Bledsoe, and Tony Romo), and they open the season without their star running back for three games. If the team starts off 0-3 or 1-2, what's the likelihood that Owens will hold his tongue? The Bills are on the verge of becoming the AFC East's Bengals, or Raiders.

Speaking of the Bengals, after admitting to the press that he mailed it in back in 2008, are there any teammates that are going to trust Chad Ochocinco?

How's Jay Cutler going to fare without any legitimate, top-flight receivers?

How are teams like Denver, Cleveland and Kansas going to fare under their new regimes?

Will Lance Armstrong be ready for the Tour de France coming off his injury?

Off-hand, those are just some of the ones I can think of. Should be a fun year.

The week that Wuz...

This entry is about the good, the bad, and the ugly - I'm going to start with the ugly. Most of the rest sounds pretty inconsequential after the first item, but this is important...

I'm a regular reader of TheCoffinCorner, written by a fellow New England sports fan by Dave from Portland, ME. Dave and his wife had some tough news this week, and need all the good thoughts that can be sent their way. It's hard to write eloquently about a four-year old girl with cancer, or to make things sound noble. I will keep this simple and straight forward -

I have two daughters, one turned seven on Friday, the other is a year and a half old. I know that if either were diagnosed with cancer, it would be devastating. At best, I can only imagine what Dave is going through. I would not change places with him for the world. But I would like to ask my readers to keep him and his family, but his daughter in particular, in your thoughts, and those of you who are religious, your prayers. Send good karma, vibes and any other positive feelings her way in her fight against rhabdomyosarcoma, a cancer most commonly found in children under five.

Good luck little one, we're all pulling for you.

As for some of the sports news, as trivial as it sounds in light of Dave's current issue...

So...Terrell Owens is now a member of the Bills. This is their answer to the offense that disappeared in the second half of the season - a 36-year old wide receiver whose best days are behind him, who failed to break the 40-yard barrier in eight games last season, who broke 90 yards only three games last season (against the 22nd, and 32nd pass defenses in the league before putting up 103 against the Eagles in a 44-6 loss in the final game of the season...way to have an impact TO). Those three games accounted for 416 of his yards on the season. The other 13 games - 669, or a 51 1/3 yard per game average.

The single smartest thing that the Bills have done with this is protect themselves with a one-year contract.

Here are some of the problems with him, outside of the aforementioned issues (and some elaboration of the above) -

• Even the best receivers in the history of the game experience a big drop-off between the ages of 35 and 36, and he already showed last season that he's heading in the wrong direction in regards to being an impact player.
• He has been among the league leaders in dropped passes for at least the last three seasons, and I'm willing to bet that if I dug, that goes back much farther.
• What happens to an over-the-hill receiver that has trouble with contact come December in Buffalo?
• Sure, he's likely to be less trouble over one season, except he's going to an offense that is committed to pounding the ball - What's the over-under for him pitching a fit and ripping a young, not-quite-there QB a new one because he's not getting the ball enough? Embarrassing the coach on the sideline?

Yep, the Bills got 'im. They can have him.

I called it on Shawn Springs. Don't be surprised if, sometime after the draft, Jason Taylor comes in for a visit.

These are the sort of veterans that Belichick likes to have around to teach the young guys. I wouldn't be surprised if Springs parlays an incentive laden one-year deal into a multi-year stay in New England - if he stays healthy this season.

And once again - may everything work out well, Dave, we're thinking of you and yours.

Braincramp and other things...

Just some quick thoughts on this past weekend's NFL games...

Watched the Bills-Jets game and could only come to the conclusion that the Bills of September were an illusion. Yes, I know that their starting quarterback is out, as is Aaron Schobel, their best defensive player. That doesn't excuse the Bills coaches who called for a pass with two minutes left. The coaches that called for a pass with two minutes left when their running backs were ripping off five to six yards a carry. Perish the thought that they protect the ball and possibly have to put the game in the hands of their defense because they had to punt the ball with about a minute to go. No, call a passing play and turn the ball over.

Boneheads.

The Raiders have set a mark for futility that not even the pitiful Lions have been able to achieve. With their loss to the Patriots, Oakland has become the first team in the history of the NFL to lose at least 11 games in six consecutive seasons. Barring a major overhaul of the organization, starting with Uncle Al, this is not a team that looks like they have an opportunity to win more than five games next season.

Speaking of the Lions, with their loss to the Colts, they're only two steps away from immortality. A bowl of gumbo, and a block of cheese, so to speak, with games left against two talented squads where players will be playing desperately for their jobs over the next two weeks. The Lions will be playing solely to avoid becoming the first 16 loss team in the history of the NFL.

With yesterday's win, the Pats can finish no worse than .500. The last time a New England team lost more than eight in a season was in 2000 when the team won only five games.

The offense was firing on all cylinders at the beginning of the game with Matt Cassel throwing for four touchdowns and three other players reaching the endzone as the Patriots rang up 487 yards on offense and a total of 663 (including special teams). Unfortunately, were the Pats playing a better offensive team, this still could have been a close game despite the 47 points scored by the Pats.

The messiness that is the Raiders netted 545 combined yards against the Pats. Part of the reason why I think that if the playoffs are in the cards for New England, they'll be folding early.

As for the Pats playoff chances...

They got some help from the Steelers who dropped the Ravens in Baltimore. Currently the Ravens, Jets, Pats, and Dolphins are all tied at 9-5 with the Ravens holding the tie-breakers for the last wild card slot. Currently the standings look like this -

Jets - AFC East champ

Ravens - Wild Card
'Phins
Pats

To get in the Pats need to win out and get help from any number of places - to win the East, they need Miami to lose to Kansas City, and then win against the Jets, or for the Jets to lose to the Seahawks and then win against Miami. To get the wild card, the team still needs to win out with both the Ravens and one of the in-division foes to drop a game as before. Even though the Ravens have the toughest remaining schedule with the Cowboys and Jaguars still on the docket, I just don't see them losing either game.

If this is the end of the road for the Patriots this season, so be it.

With additional injuries to Gary Guyton and Matt Light this week, their job has become a lot tougher.

As for Cassel - he gave an impressive performance, given his situation, and the weather. I'm sure his dad would have been proud.

Overcoming

Throughout the season the Patriots have either been without for part, or have lost for all of the season their starting quarterback, guard, right tackle, running back, strong safety, second running back, third running back, nickel corner, special teams gunner (Kelley Washington missed a couple of games), their starting tight end, and have been down to three rookie corners, two rookie linebackers, two no-name O-line men, a quarterback who hasn't started a game since high school, and a running back who went undrafted. That's nine (including second year tight end Dave Thomas who missed much of last year with injuries) of 22 starters who have not had significant playing time in the NFL.

They're tied for first after nine games.

Certainly, with Tom Brady under center the team would very likely own a record closer to 8-1, or even be pushing 9-0 again, but, considering the injuries, 6-3 and a share of first place with six games to go isn't only respectable, it has them positioned for the a playoff run with seven games left. Three of those games are against division foes - the Jets next week, Miami, and a rematch with Buffalo, - and another two against bottom feeders Oakland and Seattle.

It's not unrealistic to believe that the Pats could actually take all three remaining games in the division (or that they would go at the very least 2-1, go 1-1 against Pittsburgh and Arizona, and take the two from the Seahawks and Raiders) and win 11 or 12 games and lock up the number two seed in the AFC. Nothing short of miraculous with, at times, almost half the starting line-up nothing more than glorified back-ups or players not projected to start, or even see significant time until next season at the earliest.

A lot of people will point to their strength of schedule as being one of the weakest in the NFL - 32nd in a 32 team league - but that's based on 2007 results. Their opponents, based on 2007 results had a combined winning percentage of .397. This included the then 1-15 Dolphins, the 4-12 Jets, and the 7-9 Bills. Currently, the teams that the Pats have already played have an aggregate winning percentage of .438, and the remaining games are against teams with an aggregate winning percentage of .484 (minus the games against Seattle and Oakland, the percentage of the other five teams is .591). The rest of the AFC East alone has a winning percentage of .593, a significant improvement over last year's .250 for the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins combined.

While on day one this looked like the easiest schedule in the league, it's nowhere near the bottom. People still talk about the Pats' easy schedule, but has anyone looked at who the Giants have played lately? The aggregate record of their opponents thus far has been .386, with only three games coming against teams with a winning record higher than .333 (I note this because a lot of people want to discount the Titans undefeated record based on the quality of their competition, and rank the Giants higher, but the Titans have played four of their games against teams with winning records, and another two of their opponents have at least four wins).

Other items to note about the Pats -

Matt Cassel has now gone two games during which the opponents have combined to sack him once. I attribute that to two things - one; the returns of Stephen Neal and Nick Kaczur solidifying the play of the offensive line, and two; the continued development of Cassel as an NFL quarterback.

Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, the hard-running human hyphen who went undrafted, averaged 4.01 yards per carry, running for 105 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries. It was his best day as a pro, bringing him to 243 yards on 63 carries, upping his per carry average from 3.7 to 3.9, and (ties him for the team lead in touchdowns among running backs with) four touchdowns in five games.

The defense, in spite of injuries, has begun to look a little more consistent, and gotten more pressure on the quarterback in the last three games. The pressure has resulted in lower scoring affairs and more turnovers than what we were seeing early in the season.

These are all goods sign as the team prepares for its playoff push.

The defense is still a bit offensive

The Patriots have clawed their way back into a share of first place with their win over the Rams combined with the Bills loss to the 'Phins.

Once again, Matt Cassel was solid in his role as signal caller, and could have been even better if not for drops from Randy Moss (two touchdowns missed, and a deflection of his hand ended as an interception), and normally sure-handed Wes Welker (dropped a sure first-down, and fell in his route leading to interception two). Cassel led the offense to 23 points on 63 percent passing in spite of an erratic and often ineffective running game (although Kevin Faulk did average 4.1 yards a carry and was the Cassel's best weapon, accounting for a combined 107 yards and a highlight reel touchdown reception).

While I believe the offense could have been better - the team needs to do a better job of helping Cassel out - I don't have too many complaints about the offensive performance other than those noted above.

The defense, however, continues to bother me.

Overall, they did what they needed to do, coming up with the big third down stops pretty regularly. What wasn't good was the regularity with which the Rams hit big plays. Three St. Lois receivers had catches of at least 19 yards, two of them averaged more than 20 yards per catch and one, with six receptions averaged more than 27 yards.

These are not reassuring numbers.

They are a step backwards from last week when the Pats gave up virtually nothing deep.

Will they adjust sans Rodney Harrison? I hope so - but this really wasn't the sort of adjustment I was hoping to see, and I don't care what the record says, next week's Sunday night tilt against the Colts looms large. Even a wounded Peyton Manning is dangerous, and I would like to see that the secondary has made the necessary adjustments to win in Indy next week.

And on a separate note, for those of you who missed it, check out my last post on commercial viability. It's a gas.

And now for the AFC East

The AFC East is going to be one of the most watched divisions this season, if for no other reason than the following -

• People will want to see when the Patriots finally lose a game
• See how Brett Favre fares in New York
• See how Da Tuna's changes work in Miami
• To see if Buffalo can close the gap on a playoff birth

There's a lot going on in a division that faces an easier schedule than it had last season, and the following is how I see the chips falling...

4. Jets - It was the biggest move of any team in the off-season, and it could result in big dividends for the Jets, but I don't think it will. I don't see Brett Favre being the solution on a team that had so many glaring holes last year. If anything, I believe, given the short amount of time he had to practice with the team going into the season, he will be a wash (in regards to Chad Pennington). Before anyone gets defensive about it, I present the following -

1. Favre is learning a new system for the first time in 16 seasons, that will cause early problems for a team that faces New England, San Diego, and an improved Arizona squad in the first four games. This is a team that could easily enter their bye at 1-3 or even 0-4.
   
2. He has had one good season in the last three - last year's when the young talent drafted by Green Bay finally began to gel. The Jets do not have the playmakers on defense, the wide outs (though theirs aren't bad), the runners, nor the offense line that the Packers have. Favre has not made his teammates better the last couple of seasons, he was made better last season by young talent placed around him. Now that talent is around Aaron Rodgers.
3. The Jets brought in Damien Woody and Alan Faneca to protect a quarterback that will be 39 in October - two thirty-plus year-old linemen. Sure, Faneca was a pro-bowler while surrounded by other pretty good linemen in Pittsburgh, but now he has to compensate for a roughly average D'Brickshaw Ferguson, and an okay Nick Mangold on either side of him. And Woody, well, this is a guy who spent his career handling tackles from the guard position, lost his starting job in Detroit of all places, and has been brought in to play tackle. Forgive me if I'm skeptical about that line having great results.
4. With that line, teams aren't going to give Favre time early to connect long. Teams will pressure Favre until the Jet line shows it can handle the pressure. Don't count on the long ball early.

All that said, the Jets will win around six games this year just out of the mercy of the scheduling gods that gave them teams like Kansas City and Oakland - and even the Raiders aren't a given for the Jets this season.

3. Dolphins - This still isn't a good team. As a matter of fact, it's still pretty bad. However, while it's universally acknowledged that the Favre deal was the biggest deal during the off-season, I believe that the Chad Pennington signing is the most important. It makes the Dolphins significantly better than they were last year, it might even make them better than the Jets, and here's why - unlike Favre, Pennington has had to adapt to new coaches and new systems, and it's likely, given Bill Parcells' predilection for hiring guys he's worked with before (he drafted Pennington), it's likely that Pennington will be playing in the same system in which excelled when he was first with the Jets. Overall the team lacks the requisite personnel to be successful, and the 'Phins would be better off with Parcells on the sideline rather than in the executive offices, but he will make the team better in the long run, just don't expect a contender right away. Expect them to be around that same six win plateau as the Jets, maybe even seven and nine if they can steal a game here and there.

2. Bills - I think Donte Whitner's mouth is writing checks his team can't cash. This team isn't bad, but it's got work to do to get to the next level. They aren't ready to compete with the likes of the Pats, Indy, the Steelers, and the Jags, San Diego, and maybe not even the Browns. I give the team an outside shot at the playoffs, but should they eke their way in, it will be one of those final regular season Sundays when they're doing calculus to figure out tie-breakers with teams like the Titans, or the Broncos as they try to figure out the tie-breaker (Dick Jauron to Whitner sometime in December: I think we get in if the Broncos win, but only on a drop kick from 32-yards out or longer by Jay Cutler, unless the Ravens score a safety and it happens to be a new moon).

1. Patriots - A lot of people are putting the Pats at 12-4. I'm going to go out on a limb and put the Pats at 15-1, losing only to the Colts during the regular season. Yes, there were issues during the pre-season on defense, but this is largely the same defense the Pats had last season that was ranked fourth overall, they ran virtually no stunts during the pre-season, and they've added some speed and youth on that side of the ball. In games that the defense struggles, this is still an offense that will be able to score at will against almost every team in the NFL, and it's a better team, from a talent perspective, than the Chargers, probably the second best team the Pats will face this season. It's been 19 games since the last time the Pats lost in the regular season. If my guess is correct, the Patriots will make it to 26 consecutive regular season wins before dropping another game.

On a related note, my wife is creepy. Years ago my wife started doing this thing where she would just say if the Pats would win or lose. If I remember, it started with the 1996 season. She got every game right that season. Overall, through the years she's probably batting about .900, maybe .950. She said, without hesitation nor reservation, that the Patriots would win the Super Bowl this year. She could be wrong, but I wouldn't bet against her.

Language Lessons

What's in a word?

There are a lot of phrases common to sports analysis...

They choked.

It was a lot closer than the score indicated.

It wasn't as close as the final score.

"X" didn't win the game, "Y" lost it.

They gave the game away.

This is just a small cross section of some of the statements commonly made. But how much is just the idea that people are justifying the way a game was played? Sure, there are cosmetic points scored in garbage time, but some of those "not as close" sort of statements come from someplace else.

Do we make these comments sometimes to demean a team?

People talk about the Patriots losing the Super Bowl this year as one of the biggest choke jobs in the history of professional sports. But by saying the Patriots choked, aren't we then also saying that the Giants got lucky that the Pats didn't bring their A-game? I, for one, watched what I thought was great execution by the Giants of a game-plan that was perfectly designed.

Did the Oilers choke in Buffalo those many years ago, or is that just a way of minimizing the Bills' accomplishments that year?

Language can be a powerful thing, and the statements are direct and have a specific meaning, but what can be implied by a given statement? Sure, teams will win in butt-ugly fashion from time to time, but does that actually make a win any less a win? It still counts in the win column - and as Bill Parcells used to say, "You are what your record is." It doesn't matter if the wins were ugly - it's not how you got there, it's the fact that you got there.

Choke jobs exist in professional sports.

It's a fact.

But at what point does the failure of one party to perform become their own responsibility versus the opponents' rising to the occasion?

In 1986 Calvin Schiraldi blew a lead in game six with the Red Sox up three games to two over the Mets long before Bill Buckner let an errant ground ball go through his legs in a tie ball game. Somehow Buckner became the goat when Schiraldi deserved the blame.

Watching the game, you could see it in his eyes - Schiraldi choked. He didn't have the balls to shut the door with the biggest game of his career on the line.

I don't mean to take anything away from the Mets who fought back with consecutive singles to tie the game up, but I firmly believe that if the Sox had someone on the mound like the Mets' Roger McDowell or Jesse Orosco on the mound, then the team would have won in 1986 and no one would ever have talked about the Buckner gaffe because it would never have happened.

Take the Yankees post-season fiasco of 2004. Yes, it is possibly the biggest choke job in the history of baseball. No team in the post-season had ever been up 3-0 in the ninth and failed to seal the deal. No team has ever let an opponent win four straight after being up 3-0.

Does that take away from what the Red Sox did? No. They came back against a pitcher who was widely believed to be the best closer in baseball en route to their first World Series title since Babe Ruth was on the team. Of course, the flip side of that is that the Red Sox owned Mariano Rivera that season, and for much of the time since.

In the end, the media has a job that it doesn't always do very well - and that's to balance what we write with making sure that credit is still given where it is due.

And sometimes that's as difficult a job when it comes to working language as any other job out there.

AFC East...the pioneer conference

It is the history of the conference.

They are pioneers in the league. They are history setters.

The Jets were the first AFC team to beat an NFC team in the Super Bowl (they were also the first team to be named the Titans).

The Dolphins were the first team to have an undefeated season and win a championship in the NFL (twice the Bears went undefeated, but both times lost in the championship game).

The Bills remain the only team in the history of the NFL to go to four consecutive Super Bowls. The only other team to come close were the Dolphins with three consecutive Bowls in the early 1970's - the first team to go to three of the big games.

And now the Patriots are the first team in the NFL to go undefeated through a 16-0 season (not even taking into account all the other records the team set).

Yep...the history setters.

Welcome to the AFC East.

The wheat from the chaff

After a weekend that saw weather play a significant factor in several games for playoff bound teams, and a whole lot of wild-card eliminations, there are a number of things that can be taken from the games played from Thursday through yesterday. Sorry guys, but tonight's tilt has no bearing on the post-season (unless Chicago somehow upsets Minnesota - which I have a hard time seeing).

Here are some of my thoughts.

The Patriots (contenders) - They played a different type of game yesterday in the bad weather, pounding the Jets and winning the battles in the trenches. This led to a solid running game by the team that included 104 yards on 26 carries (4 yard per carry average) by the often maligned Laurence Maroney.

While good to see them move the ball on the ground, it was done against a moribund Jets rush defense that is currently ranked 30th in the league giving up an average of 141 yards per game. That average lowered with the Patriots 131 net yards from scrimmage yesterday. So, as nice as it was to see the Patriots pound the ball on the ground, they were still below what is average for this team to give up.

I like that Maroney runs hard, but I have to question his vision...or maybe it's just the coaching instructions he receives. I like that he seldom takes negative yards, but he often runs into clogged lanes when there are openings elsewhere. That won't cut it in the post-season against better run defenses than the Pats faced yesterday.

The Colts (contenders) - After struggling mightily after their mid-season loss to the Pats, Indy seems to have collected itself and managed to right the ship, clinching their division and the other AFC bye with their win over the Raiders (the best Jacksonville could do is tie their record, but Indy has the tie-breakers).

This Colts team appears built for bed weather better than team of the past, with a greater reliance on the run - although, it's not as if they lacked quality running backs in the past, it hasn't helped them in bad weather, and the Colts won't be playing in truly bad weather until they possibly rematch against the Patriots at Gillette.

Also, the fact that even depleted the Colts should have destroyed the Raiders should be some cause for concern.

The Jaguars (contenders) - They went to Pittsburgh and handed the Steelers their helmets in decidedly un-Jacksonvillian weather. This team could be very dangerous to anyone in the playoffs. If there was one team that could put together three road wins to get to Arizona, these are the guys.

The Steelers (pretenders) - See the Jaguars. Really, unless this team fixes what is ailing them, which seems to be the defense, they might be on the road to Cleveland or San Diego the first weekend of the playoffs, and they're not playing like a team that can win three in a row on the road. Hell, they've only won two of the six road games they have already played. Sure, the final two are against the Rams (3-11), and Ravens (4-10), but they lost on the road to the Jets (3-11), Cardinals (6-8), and Broncos (6-8).

The Chargers (pretenders) - Yes, they are playing better than they did early in the season, and yes they demolished the Lions 51-14, but they still have Norv Turner calling the shots and their only wins against winning teams were at home against Indy after they were beat up by New England, and at Tennessee. With the exception of their win against the Colts, they have lost to every other playoff contender they have faced - New England, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Jacksonville - by an average of 14 points per game.

The Browns (pretenders) - Cleveland is one of the great NFL stories this year. With games left against the Bengals and the 49ers, and the Steelers struggling, the Browns could go from worst to first with the potential of an 11 win season - a far cry from the 4-12 fourth place 2006 campaign (if Romeo Crennel isn't a coach of the year candidate, then I don't know how they're defining the award).

As great a story as this is for Cleveland, the fact remains that the Browns defense is 29th overall, and that doesn't get you far in the playoffs.

I'll deal with the NFC contenders/pretenders later in the week.

Other thoughts on the weekend -

Tony Romo's thumb injury and Terrell Owens suddenly playing like...well Terrell Owens (short arming, giving up on routes, not hustling on turnovers) could cost the Cowboys home-field in the playoffs, and any real hope at a Super Bowl berth.

Speaking of issues from Cowboys/Eagles - Brian Westbrook might have made one of the most heads up plays I have ever seen in the NFL when he decided to forgo the touchdown and sat down at the Cowboys one yard line with just over two minutes to play. The move allowed the Eagles to run out the clock. Had Westbrook run the ball in, the Cowboys would have gotten the ball back at the two minute warning, down by 11 - plenty of time to score and try an on-sides kick. It really was a thing of beauty.

Dick Jauron has done a great job with Buffalo this season, keeping the Bills in the playoff hunt until their loss to the Browns yesterday. Like Crennel, he will be a candidate for coach of the year.

After Brian Billick's spitting the bit against the formerly winless Dolphins, one has to wonder if the Ravens braintrust is regretting that extension they granted to Billick. To not try to punch it in and go for the win on the half-yard line against a team like the Dolphins who haven't stopped anyone all year is just unjustifiable.

Caveat Emptor

Buyer beware.

Everyone has something to sell. Everyone. Me? I'm trying to sell the idea that I might indeed have a clue as to what I'm writing about...not everyone buys, particularly not my wife.

At least retail is honest about it. For the rest of us...well, let's just say you have to pay closer attention to what's being sold...

Let's go through some of the people and groups making sales pitches out there -

Scott Boras/Alex Rodriguez - A-Rod is the car that Boras is trying to sell. He's like a Jaguar- a sleek, pretty bauble of a car with a 12 cylinder engine that has a tendency to crap out on you at the worst possible moment. In 2004 when the Yankees needed a $30 million bat to save them from Mo Rivera's struggles, A-Rod disappeared like J.D. Salinger from the public eye.

Buyers need to beware of the slick, used-car salesman Boras, and his shiny toy of a product, A-Rod. Consider - even in a (contract) year in which A-Rod set career highs in RBI's (156), OBP (.422), and slugging (.645), hit the second most homers (54), and third highest batting average (.314), Boras is going out of his way to get potential buyers to NOT look at his client's post-season failings in that same career year - in a year in which A-Rod led the league in RBI's, he knocked in one in this year's post season.

So during a season in which A-Rod averaged an RBI per every 3.7 at bats, he had one in 15 during the postseason. Even adding in the 8 he had during the 2004 playoffs, this is what he has done in baseball's second season since then - 9 RBI's in 94 at bats, or one for every 10.4 at bats. For his career he has knocked in a run for every 4.9 at bats in the regular season, that has dropped off to one for every 8.6 at bats in the postseason, a number that has gotten progressively worse with each passing season.

This doesn't include the following facts that I have mentioned in other posts - for the first three seasons after A-Rod left Seattle, the team averaged in the vicinity of 10 more wins per season; after he left Texas, they averaged eight more wins per season; the Yankees have average almost four fewer per season, decreasing from 111 wins per year to 94 this year. And, here's the kicker, he has failed to help any team he has been on advance to the World Series. Buyer beware.

The first half of the Patriots schedule - What they are trying to sell? Professional football. How? By complaining that the Patriots are doing things they shouldn't be...like scoring a lot. The people who need to beware? The fan-bases of the Jets, Dolphins, Cowboys, Chargers, Bills, Bengals, Redskins and Browns. Really, the fans of the Cowboys, Jets, Dolphins, and Redskins in particular.

Those teams, those four mentioned at the bottom of that last paragraph, were the ones that started the complaints of how the Patriots are playing offense this year (well, the Jets complained about something else, and maybe they should be more worried about what's happening on the field than on the sideline - if this were European soccer, they and the Dolphins would be well on their way to playing in a semi-pro league). One Redskin, who shall remain unnamed in this post, accused the Patriots of disrespecting the game in an effort to deflect attention from the fact that what the Patriots really disrespected was the Redskins highly regarded defense.

As just about every former coach, player, and most pundits have said - there's no mercy rule in the NFL, if you don't like a team scoring on you, then do something about it. Rolling over and playing dead when you get down by a couple of touchdowns is what really disrespects the game.

Buyer...beware.

The National Press - The national press, in an effort to build up this weekend's game between the Pats and Colts, are trying to sell the Patriots as the evil empire with the merciless coach who won't take his foot off the pedal once he's driven the opposition into the ground. The Colts are the perennial good guys of the league with the owner doing everything he can to make a stadium happen in his host city, and the brilliant, but nice head coach in Tony Dungy.

Let's look at some of the facts in this - yes, the Patriots are running the score up on people and annihilating their opponents. However, it's not like the Colts under Dungy have never done this. The following was ganked from the Boston Globe's Eric Wilbur, via Dave at The Coffin Corner -

W, 49-14
W, 41-10
W, 41-9
W, 51-24
That quartet of one-sided scores comes to you courtesy of the 2004 Indianapolis Colts from a November-December period during which Peyton Manning and Company annihilated the Texans, Bears, Lions, and Titans, respectively. And, you know it's funny, I don't remember one person whining about them running up the score.

Tony Dungy, the good-guy coach in all of this, did not call off the dogs. Dungy has also publicly associated himself with groups that have well known anti-gay stances (but I suppose that's okay, because everyone knows that on one is gay in the locker room). Focus on Family, the group with which Dungy is most closely associated has been referred to by a number of people as "rabidly anti-gay." Last I checked, Bill Belichick has never aligned himself with any hate groups that hide behind a thin veil of legitimacy by claiming to be family advocates.

Let's look at Jim Irsay - still public enemy number one in Baltimore. Still the only owner that gets more of a rise out of Baltimore fans that Peter Angelos. For those who have forgotten, Irsay, the so-called nice guy owner, packed the Colts up in the dead of night and broke his lease with Baltimore County in an effort to move the team to Indy. Irsay did this against league wishes. Yeah, he's a good guy.

I have no personal issue with the Colts on the field. Manning is a supremely talented quarterback (please take a cue from Brady and cut back on the public endorsements - its annoying enough to make me look forward to seeing you get your head handed to you). The team is talented. However, the general manager and owner have whined whenever things didn't go their way, the head coach is a bigot, and the press is selling a serious double standard here.

Once again...buyer beware.

NFL Questions: AFC East

As we approach the NFL preseason, only a month away, each team is faced with major questions - but what is the major question faced by each team? The Angry Fan takes a look, starting with the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills - Can Anthony Thomas emerge as an every down back? Even in his best seasons in Chicago, the A-Train, the knock against Thomas was durability. Last season was the first time in Thomas' career that he played in 16 games, but he started only two. If Thomas is unable to fill the void created by the departure of Willis McGahee via trade, it will be a very long season for JP Losman, or whoever else is under center for the course of the year.

Miami Dolphins - What are they thinking in Miami? It's hard to fathom what is going on in Miami as the Dolphins are beginning to look more and more like the East Coast version of the Raiders. Sure, hiring Cam Cameron seemed like a good idea, but what about their other moves - they draft a glorified return man with ankle problems with their first pick, they trade their leading receiver to the division rival Patriots, they add a linebacker that might face league discipline for an off season assault, and they try to rectify last season's quarterback fiasco by replacing a rehabbing Duante Culpepper, with a fragile Trent Green who never seemed to be the same player when he returned from his concussion last season.

New England Patriots - Can Brady and the receivers gel by the first game of the season? With games against the Jets, Chargers, and Bengals over the first four weeks of the season, the Patriots defense will best be served by having an offense that can run the opposing defenses ragged. If the new receiving corps develops chemistry faster than last year's group, this team could easily head into Indianapolis with an 8-0 record. If it takes them some time to come together, the record could easily be 6-2 with those losses happening during the first four weeks of the season.

New York Jets - Can the Jets build off of last season? First year head coach Eric Mangini worked miracles in getting this team to play as greater than the sum of its parts, but can he work that magic again? The key will be whether or not they can get two straight healthy seasons out of quarterback Chad Pennington. If they can't, then the offense falls on the shoulders of the untested Kellen Clemens.

Doubting Thomas

After the initial "Jaws"-like feeding frenzy of NFL free-agency many of the pundits are declaring the 49ers and Patriots the early winners and a number of them are even saying that the Patriots signing of Adalius Thomas is going to put the Pats in the pole-position for the Super Bowl next year. I don't quite buy it.

The Patriots were thirty minutes away from the big game this year, and likely would have beaten the Bears in Miami (although I will grant that's not guaranteed). However, when you look at what happened to that flu-stricken defense (not an excuse considering pretty much the same defense stricken with the flu got the job done against the Steelers in the playoffs two seasons earlier) in the second half against the Colts, I find it hard to believe they were one player away. I suppose you could argue that a healthy Rodney Harrison and Thomas would amount to two impact starters that they were missing - but you have to play with what you've got.

Here's what the Pats have - the most coveted defender on the free agent market who came from a team whose best players have traditionally failed when they have moved on.

Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli are very good evaluators of talent, often finding value over the years in late round draft picks (Tom Brady), other team's cast-offs (Heath Evans, Antowain Smith, Rodney Harrison), and rookie free-agents (Randall Gay, Stephen Neal). Even so, they have been very erratic in the free-agent market. Yes, they acquired Harrison via free-agency and Mike Vrabel that way - but they also brought in Monty Beisel, Chad Brown and even traded for former Raven Duane Starks.

On paper - I love the additions. Kyle Brady can be a punishing blocker, Wes Welker reminds me of Troy Brown - only faster, and with the Pats committing to Laurence Maroney as the feature back, I think Sammy Morris is a good complimentary piece. Of course the additions of Welker and Morris are important because they also hurt a division rival.

I don't expect Thomas to be the force he was in Baltimore in much the same way that Rosevelt Colvin's roll differs now than the one he filled in Chicago. Thomas will still be an impact player - and be used in multi-faceted rolls, but I figure Belichick will sit down with his defensive coordinator this offseason to look at how they can really utilize someone like Thomas. He'll get his sacks and tackles - there just might not be as many.

This looks like a stronger free agent class than they have had in several years, but until they strap on the helmets in September looks don't mean a thing.

From a GM standpoint - the other teams in the division, who I believe all made good steps in regards to improving themselves (the Jets getting a legitimate backfield threat, Buffalo shoring up the offensive line, and the Dolphins hoarding draft picks while getting Joey Porter), those GMs can't be happy that the Patriots still hold six picks in the draft (including two first rounders) and are expecting two compensatory picks for free agents lost last year. Trading away one of those first rounders could easily result in the Patriots having ten picks in the upcoming draft and still leave them with a first round selection.

And really - the Patriots have made a living this decade out of selecting players outside of the first round - Brady (6th round, 2000), Stephen Gostkowski (4th, 2006), Jarvis Green (4th, 2002), Ellis Hobbs (3rd, 2005), Nick Kaczur (3rd, 2005), Dan Koppen (5th, 2003), Matt Light (2nd, 2001), Garrett Mills (4th, 2006), Ryan O'Callaghan (5th, 2006), Patrick Pass (7th, 2000), Asante Samuel (4th, 2003), James Sanders (4th, 2005), David Thomas (3rd, 2006), Eugene Wilson (2nd, 2003).

So...in the second round since 2000 the Pioli and Belichick have found a starting left tackle and starting safety. (2)
Third round - their second string tight end, a starting corner/kick returner, and a starting right tackle. (3)
Fourth round - kicker, rotational defensive end that could start on other teams, a back-up tight-end/fullback, franchise cornerback, and back-up safety. (5)
Fifth round - Back-up right tackle with the size and potential talent to start, starting center (2)
Sixth round - franchise quarterback (1)
Seventh round - fullback (1)

Fourteen players who are significant contributors - most starters, in the later rounds with most of the damage in the middle rounds.

Playoff picture remains unclear...

After a weekend where all but four games could have a serious impact on the playoff race not many answers abound. However, there do seem to be a few more questions. Lets take a quick look at the playoffs by what each team did...



Division leaders W-L Div. Conf.

1. BEARS — x 12-2 4-0 10-0 Clinched NFC North and number one seed in the NFC, yet opened a whole ohst of questions about their defense heading into the playoffs.

2. SAINTS — y 9-5 4-1 8-2 Backed into clinching the NFC South with the losses by Atlanta and Carolina. Also, with their own loss needs to win out to assure themselves of the second seed, or hope that Dallas drops at least one of the final two games.

3. COWBOYS — z 9-5 2-3 6-4 NFC East Leader, if they win next weekend then they sew up the division. A loss means that they need to rely on the Eagles loss if they want the division title (Philly has the tie-breakers).

4. SEAHAWKS 8-6 3-3 6-5 NFC West Leader that opened the door to San Francisco to win the division with the loss to the 49ers over the weekend. However, still could win the division at 8-8 as long as San Fran drops one of the remaining two games. Don’t expect things to get easy for the Seahawks with a tilt against the Chargers this weekend.

Wild-card teams W-L Div. Conf.

5. EAGLES 8-6 4-1 7-3 With the upcoming game against Dallas, this team controls its own destiny and has a legitimate shot at winning the division in spite of the personell losses suffered this season.

6. GIANTS 7-7 3-2 6-4 With their loss to Philly, this under-achieving bunch will need help to get in. If they falter, they’re finished.

Still alive W-L Div. Conf.
7. FALCONS 7-7 3-2 5-5 Which Michael Vick shows up with the season on the line is anybody's guess, however, this is not the player a team should be pinning its playoff hopes on.

8. VIKINGS 6-8 2-3 6-4 Likely done after their lack-luster effort against the Jets.

9. PACKERS 6-8 3-1 5-5 With games against a demoralized Vikings team in Lambeau, and a Bears team that will be resting its starters, the Packers could leapfrog the Vikings, Falcons and Giants for the final wild card slot.

10. 49ERS 6-8 3-2 5-6 With games against Arizona and at Denver with a rookie quarterback, the 49ers have to be thinking they still have a shot and should be playing hard this week. A win this week with a Seattle loss and that week 17 matchup in Denver should be quite a game.

11. PANTHERS 6-8 3-1 4-6 Also likely done after their no-show against the Steelers at home.

12. RAMS 6-8 2-4 4-6 After a strong start, St. Louis has slipped badly and is unlikely to pass anyone still ahead of them.

AFC PLAYOFF SEEDING

Division leaders W-L Div. Conf.

1. CHARGERS — y 12-2 5-1 10-2 One more win seals the number one seed and the advantages that go with it. Expect them to seal the deal against an erratic Seattle team this weekend.

2. RAVENS — y 11-3 4-1 8-2 With an injured Steve McNair and two teams, Pittsburgh and Buffalo making some late season noise, the Ravens will have to rely on their defense more than ever this year.

3. COLTS — y 11-3 3-2 8-2 On paper, match-ups against Houston and Miami might seem an easier road than that faced by either the Patriots or the Ravens, unfortunately for the Colts, Houston has often played them tough (in spite of how bad they are) and Miami’s defense should pose problems for the Colts offense

4. PATRIOTS 10-4 4-2 6-4 Facing off against Jacksonville and Tennessee, New England has an opportunity to show that they can beat teams that are potential post-season contenders and close out their division title.

Wild-card teams W-L Div. Conf.

5. BRONCOS 8-6 3-2 3-6 With two teams on the slate fighting for their playoff lives, Mike Shanahan is about to find out how ready Jay Cutler really is.

6. BENGALS 8-6 4-1 6-4 After blowing a golden opportunity to move up and solidify their playoff standing, Cincy has put themselves in a must win position in tough games against Denver and Pittsburgh.

Still alive W-L Div. Conf.

7. JAGUARS 8-6 2-4 5-5 With this team’s inconsistency, I give the Jets a better chance to make the post-season dance.

8. JETS 8-6 3-2 5-5 I’ve said it once, will say it again: with games against Miami and Oakland remaining this team could finish 10-6 and in the playoffs. However, with this field, they could finish with that record and be out of the playoffs as well.

9. BILLS 7-7 3-3 5-5 Making a good late season surge, but, like everyone else behind them, needs a lot of dominoes to fall in front of them in order to make the playoffs.

10. TITANS 7-7 4-2 4-6 The surging Titans have a chance to be very dangerous to the Patriots, but don’t count on them making the playoffs.

11. STEELERS 7-7 2-2 4-6 Realistically, the Steelers are unlikely to make it to the playoffs, but with games against the Bengals and Ravens, they certainly can impact seeding.

12. CHIEFS 7-7 3-2 3-7 With their weak conference record they need too much to fall the right way to get in. The run is over in KC.

13. DOLPHINS 6-8 1-4 3-7 After being shut out by the Bills, the ‘Phins are done. All this team has to play for are their jobs next year.

x=clinched home-field advantage throughout playoffs
y=clinched division title
z=clinched playoff spot

The potential playoff impact of Week 15

The brain trust at the NFL has to be overjoyed heading into tonight's game. This weekend features at least twelve games that could have a potential impact on the playoffs. And an argument can be made for the Browns-Ravens, and Dolphins-Bills games. If the Browns can pull the upset, and that's a big if, the game could have a direct impact on playoff seeding. While long shots, both the Bills and 'Phins have played themselves into position to possibly snag a wild-card, but that would be dependent on a lot of things going wrong for the teams ahead of them, and five teams crashing and burning in the last three games - very unlikely.
A month ago it looked like the Bears and Colts were locks for the top seeds in their respective conferences. To date, the Colts have fallen into a tie with Baltimore and behind the Chargers who are hoping to lock up the number seed. Chicago has secured one of the byes in the NFC, but could still find themselves on the road for the Championship game (if they can win their home game) depending on what happens over the next three weekends.

Right now, this is how things stand:

NFC
1. Chicago (11-2) Clinched NFC North
2. New Orleans (9-4) NFC South Leader
3. Dallas (8-5) NFC East Leader
4. Seattle (8-5) NFC West Leader
5. Atlanta (7-6) Wild Card
6. NY Giants (7-6) Wild Card
-----------------------
7. Philadelphia (7-6)
8. Minnesota (6-7)
9. Carolina (6-7)
10. St. Louis (5-8)
11. San Francisco (5-8)
12. Green Bay (5-8)

AFC
1. San Diego (11-2) Clinched AFC West
2. Baltimore (10-3) AFC Central Leader
3. Indianapolis (10-3) AFC South Leader
4. New England (9-4) AFC East Leader
5. Cincinnati (8-5) Wild Card
6. Jacksonville (8-5) Wild Card
-----------------------
7. Denver (7-6)
8. NY Jets (7-6)
9. Kansas City (7-6)
10. Miami (6-7)
11. Tenessee (6-7)
12. Buffalo (6-7)
13. Pittsburgh (6-7)

Currently 13 teams that are not in the playoffs are in position to potentially make it. This translates into a slate that could completely change the look of the playoffs between now and that first game in January. Let's list them in order of importance and impact (randomly attributed by me...deal with it)...

A quick look at the key games and some potential impact...

The Big Game

Cincinnati (8-5) at
Indianapolis (10-3)
Amazingly, the Colts have not managed to wrap up their division, and with the way their defense is playing the team is in danger of hosting only a first round game in the dome. If it weren't for a week 16 tilt against the lowly Texans, I would say that they could possibly be passed in the standings by a Jacksonville team that's beginning to get healthy.
Meanwhile, the NFL's loudest criminal contingent has begun to play their best football of the year in recent weeks and is cementing at the very least, a wild-card spot.
Look for the Bengals to be too much for a floundering Indy team.

The Undercard

Dallas (8-5) at
Atlanta (7-6)
If Dallas loses, they move into a tie for the division lead with the winner of NY-Philly, and are in second by virtue of tie-breakers. Dallas can still land a bye, but would have to move past a New Orleans team that has a weak schedule. Look for Dallas to move closer to locking up the NFC East against an Atlanta squad that's becoming unhealthy at the wrong time.
If, as expected, Atlanta loses, this opens up some serious fighting for the last wild-card spot in the NFC.

Philadelphia (7-6) at
New York Giants (7-6)
Whoever loses this one isn't done, but it certainly makes it harder. Depending on how the chips fall around the NFC, it's feasible that three playoff teams can come out of this division.
The winner here positions itself well for one of the wild-card slots, and possibly to take the division if Dallas falters down the stretch.

Pittsburgh (6-7) at
Carolina (6-7)
The Steelers' chances at the playoffs depend on too many other teams, but Carolina, with a win combined with an Atlanta loss and a loss from either the Giants or Eagles can put themselves right back in the thick of the wild-card hunt.

New York Jets (7-6) at
Minnesota (6-7)
With both teams only a game out of the wild-card, a win combined with one or two losses elsewhere could catapult one of these teams into the playoffs. A loss doesn't kill either, but with only two games to make up ground after this weekend, it might as well.

Denver (7-6) at
Arizona (4-9)
Arizona has a legitimate shot at playing spoiler to the of late struggling Broncos playoff hopes. Even if Denver wins, like the Jets, they will have to leap-frog at least one team ahead of them to get into the second season.

Jacksonville (8-5) at
Tennessee (6-7)
While the Titans have a shot at the playoffs, albeit a slim one, they have a better chance of upsetting the Jaguars bid at making some noise in the playoffs. With a resurgent Titans team, the Jags have a tougher game ahead of them than might have been thought as recently as a month ago.

Kansas City (7-6) at
San Diego (11-2)
San Diego is playing for homefield. Kansas is playing for their lives and the memory of Lamar Hunt. If they can't get it going for this game, then they're not going to get to the playoffs, it's do or die for the Chiefs right now.

Houston (4-9) at
New England (9-4)
If New England had destroyed Detroit, and at least put together a respectable showing on offense against Miami, this game wouldn't even make the list. However, this is a chance to see if the Patriots have made any progress in correcting the offensive issues (turnovers, completions) that will cause an ouster in the playoffs and have been plaguing the team this season.
Should they right the ship and win, they still have a shot at one of the byes, although they would have to leapfrog the Colts and Baltimore to do so. The way the Colts have been playing, that is possible...Baltimore is another story.

San Francisco (5-8) at
Seattle (8-5)
The fact that the 49ers with only 5 wins have not been mathmatically eliminated from the playoffs speaks volumes about the NFC. Seattle could also feasibly lose their remaining three games and win the division at 8-8.
As is, they're only one game behind New Orleans and still have a shot at the remaining bye in the NFC.

Washington (4-9) at
New Orleans (9-4)
With a win and losses by both Dallas and Seattle the Saints will all but lock up the second bye. Should they stumble here, while those teams win, it opens up a dogfight in the NFC over the final weeks of the season.

and

Tampa Bay (3-10) at
Chicago (11-2)
Simply put - if Chicago wins, they sew up homefield advantage through the post season. If they lose, they leave the door open to the Saints in regards to landing that home-field advantage through the championship season.