One liners

So...should we just start referring to PED's as Rocket Fuel?

If Tom Brady picks up at the beginning of the coming season where he left off at the end of 2007, what's the over/under for the first bionic man reference? Week three?

If Peyton Manning struggles, what will be blamed first? Age or the change in coaching staff?

If Brady struggles, what's the over/under on blaming him for coming back from rehab too quickly?

This year's Daisuke Matsuzaka has been more crumbling Dice than tumbling Dice. Take your time figuring it out, and get back when you can.

Is it just me, or are there a lot of morons out there complaining about the value for the dollar with the Dice-man. It's three seasons into a six season contract, and this is the only season that the Dice has come up craps, so to speak.

A Penny saved...if Brad Penny continues on pace, he will have a comparable year to his 2006 campaign with the Dodgers...adjusted for pitching in the batter's A-League of course. For what it's worth, I'll take 14 to 16 wins from my fourth starter.

Am I the only one hoping that Patrick Chung turns out to be a better pick than the last man the Pats drafted with that last name - Eugene Chung?

Should we call him Steroidin' Sammy now?

Yeah, I'd be peeved at Alex Rodriguez if I were Yankee management - fatigue from an operation and playing are one thing, but Jet-setter Lag?

Yup, sometimes it's the trade that didn't happen that determines the fate of a franchise. How about them Apples, NY?

Catching up, yet again

As you might be able to tell, I have been busy lately. I have about a half dozen story proposals or so floating out there with various magazines, have been working on home improvements, looking into going back to a staff position somewhere now that my youngest daughter is closing in on two - all of that has taken away from my time here at TAF. There have been a lot of things to comment on that have come and gone in the five days since my last blog post. Here goes...

Overall, I have no vested interest in the NHL finals and little more than that in the NBA finals this year. At least if Carolina had made it to the Stanley Cup round of the post season on the ice, then I would at least have a former New England team to root for, but we have the Penguins and the Red Wings. Eh.

Over on the hardwood...well, let's just say that the entirety of my interest there would be in seeing the Lakers lose. I don't think it's going to happen now that Los Angeles is up 2-0, but I would love to see them lose.

The Lakers are one of those teams that I love to see lose, they're up there with the Yankees, Cowboys, and Raiders. Being a Patriots fan, some might be puzzled that I haven't picked division rivals like the Jets and Dolphins, or even the rival Colts, but there's something different with them.

If the Raiders went 0-16, I would enjoy that, and while I kind of rooted for the Dolphins to match that mark two seasons ago (but only when they were in the 0-13 territory), I much prefer it when the Jets and Dolphins are decent for a couple of reasons - one: better games. Two: I much prefer seeing those teams come close and get knocked out at the hands of the Patriots then to watch them struggled and be eliminated from contention before Halloween.

Speaking of football, I didn't like Peyton Manning's public criticism of the new coaching regime. I don't know if it was more a reflection of the new staff still finding its feet, or a reflection of how spoiled Manning has been due to virtually no coaching defections during his career. In theory, there should be little to no change in how the Colts play the game since the entire coaching staff was there under Tony Dungy, but there's no telling if Pete Metzellars is going to be as good at coaching up line men as Howard Mudd - yes, he did well in the middle of the year taking over for Mudd when Mudd was dealing with health issues, but how does he do starting with a free-agent rookie from scratch like Mudd did with Jeff Saturday? He may be fine, but we just don't really know.

On top of that, the team has new coordinators for pretty much the entire team - offense, defense, and special teams. The play calling will be different. Maybe better, maybe worse.

My guess is that the team shows some growing pains, but they miss the playoffs as a ten or eleven win team, finishing behind the Titans again in their own division.

The Colts enter the season not unlike the Patriots. While the key question for the Colts is "how the is the coaching staff going to perform," the Pats are rolling the dice on the rebuilt knee of their all-pro quarterback. If Brady can play without the knee getting into his head, he should be the same guy they've always had back there. With a very likely revamped and improved Jets defense in week two, the Ravens defense in week four and the Titans and Bucs all in the first seven weeks of the season, fans of the Patriots will find out quickly if Tom Brady is thinking about the knee, or about completing passes.

While the Pats defense was shaky last season, I'm less concerned there based on the moves the team has made, leaving the biggest question on the offensive side of the ball.

Over on the diamond I can't say that homer that David Ortiz had gave me any sort of hope that he's breaking out of that power slump. Big Papi just barely cleared the wall right at the Pesky Pole. In any other ball park that hit is a long single or maybe a double, but certainly not a home run.

Jon Lester's near no-no, however, might be cause for hope. I'm still reserving judgement on the Sox lefty for at least another two starts (he's failed to put together more than two good starts in a row, in spite of leading the team in innings pitched), before I say that he's turned the corner, but things have been encouraging lately.

Through his first eight starts Lester was 4-2 with a 6.51 ERA. He bottomed out in starts five and six, pitching a total of ten innings while giving up 13 earned runs over the two games. It was his worst two game stretch of the year, beating out his first two starts in which he pitched eleven total innings while giving up eleven earned runs.

In the four starts since, Lester has pitched 27.1 innings, gone 3-1 with three quality starts, all the while logging a 2.64 ERA. His next best four game stretch ran from his start on April 19 and ran to May 4. During that stretch he went 2-0, and gave up 10 earned runs over 26 innings for a 3.46 ERA. Like the recent stretch, Lester had three of four quality starts. So, yeah, I'm going with a wait and see approach on the Sox lefty.

While Lester has certainly had his issues this season, and almost all of the pitchers have faltered badly at one time or another, they have all been better than Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has struggled in just about every outing.

For all of Lester's issues, the Left is averaging 6.1 innings per start. Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett are also averaging 6.1 innings per start. Even the oft maligned Brad Penny is pushing 5.2 innings per start, an average that would be higher were it not for two rough starts in his first three of the season in which he pitched for a grand total of 5.2 in those two starts. The Dice-man? Just a shade under 4.2 innings pitched per game. Yes, that includes a one inning/five-earned run fiasco of a start, that without he is averaging 5.1 innings per start and still has the highest ERA of the starters at 5.88.

While Matsuzaka's stats, sans the one terrible start, is only slightly higher than Brad Penny's 5.85 (overall), and slightly lower than Penny's IP per game, it might do better to look at the number of quality starts each of the Sox starters has turned in...

Matsuzaka - 0 for 6_00.0%
Masterson - 2 for 6*_33.3%
Lester - 6 for 12_ 50%
Penny - 6 for 11_54.5%
Wakefield - 7 for 11_63.6%
Beckett - 8 for 11_72.7%

*One note on Masterson's six starts - his first two starts he failed to go a full six innings, both times leaving after only 5.1 innings, but also leaving the game after giving up only one earned run. During Masterson's run of six starts in place of Matsuzaka, Masterson was 2-2 with a 4.59 ERA while averaging just under six innings per start. How long do they go with Matsuzaka in an effort to let him get his feet before they make a switch to Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden or someone else? How much time does their monetary investment in the Dice-man buy him?

Cleaning out the junk drawer of my mind for the new year

Just some random observations about a variety of things...

First, I want to address the NFL MVP - Peyton Manning got that on reputation alone. He did not deserve it this season as he was as culpable in the Colts record through the first seven games as he was responsible for digging them out of the same hole. A lot of people with the MVP vote claim the Colts would have been horrible without Manning under center, but I don't buy that they would have been any worse than 3-4 through seven games before Manning came back if they had Jim Sorgi taking the snaps.

Consider - Sorgi, for his career, has seen action in 15 games (14 if you don't count the one time in 2006 when he came in to take a knee). In those 14 games, Sorgi is 99 for 156 for 929 yards, 6 touchdowns, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 89.9. As that was a lot of partial games, break that down to five games with an average of 20 completions on 31 attempts, 186 yards, and 1 touchdown per game. Certainly passable and capable of winning three or four games over a seven game season.

There are at least five players that have had a bigger impact on their respective teams - Michael Turner, Matt Ryan, Chad Pennington, Ed Reed, James Harrison all significantly change the equation if they're not on their teams, and it's unlikely that any of their teams make the playoffs without them.

The Falcons were exposed as young and inexperienced in what I thought was one of the more boring playoff games I have ever seen.

I like the way the Red Sox rotation is shaping up, and have a hunch that a lot of people are going to panic because the Sox aren't overspending to get the big, sexy names in free-agency. If this works out the way I think it will, the Sox off-season is going to be compared to the Patriots' 2001 free agent signings. A lot of really solid guys that help make a winner, but aren't the biggest names out there.

How many times does Scott Boras have to publicly screw the pooch before his clients begin to get worried. He was publicly neutered in the last Alex Rodriguez negotiations, blinked in his game of chicken with the Sox during the Daisuke Matsuzaka negotiations, he got lucky in the Mark Texiera sweepstakes in that the Yankees swooped in and pretty much bid against no one, overplayed his hand with both Jason Varitek and Manny Ramirez.

Let's look at Ramirez for a second.

It's well known that Ramirez, likely on the advice of Boras, engineered his exit from Boston in an effort to get out from under his option years. That's not going to sit well with other general managers who will wonder if Ramirez will pull the same stunt on their teams.

Reportedly, Boras told Ramirez that he could get a four year contract for an average of $25 million per year, more than the two option years at $20 million each that the Sox would have had. Since the end of the season Ramirez has received a two-year $45 million offer from the Dodgers (since rescinded), and a three-year incentive-laden deal with a club option for a fourth year from the Giants. I'm guessing the dollars aren't in the right neighborhood based on the following from KPIX in San Fran -

The chances of the Giants signing Ramirez, a 36-year-old left fielder, were unclear. A team spokesperson told CBS 5, "it's not happening."

There was a lot of speculation that Roger Clemens would get a pardon from family friend George W. Bush and in so doing, avoid the legal implications of the federal charges that are likely to stem from the FBI investigation. Looks like charges aren't even going to get filed until after Bush leaves office. Sucks to be Roger.

I look at the Yankees off-season and can't help think that they learned nothing from the Carl Pavano signing. Nor have they learned anything from the history of fat pitchers.

The CC Sabathia signing might work well for them in the regular season for the first year or two, but eight seasons? That's nuts.

Sid Fernandez, who had weight issues, last started more than 20 games at age 29. Former Red Sox reliever Rich "El Guapo/the human zeppelin" Garces was respectable until the age of 30. At 31 he posted a 7.59 ERA and was out of baseball after that season. Once dominant Bartolo Colon had an eight season stretch wherein he pitched fewer than 200 innings only once (188 in 2000) and averaged 32.6 starts per season. When he turned 33 he went away - compiling a total of 35 starts and fewer than 200 combined innings over the final three seasons of his career. Sabathia turns 30 in 2010.

The future is not bright for him.

Congrats to the Cardinals who have finally won a playoff game after a 60+ year absence from the post-season.

I don't want to hear any excuses today regarding the Colts. They were beaten by a depleted 8-8 team - a team without its best running back, their best linebacker, and with their best receiving threat, Antonio Gates, hobbled by a high ankle sprain. The Chargers didn't even play that great a game, twice giving the ball back to the Colts in the red zone while threatening to score. And then the Colts defense imploded during the final drive - that was some of the ugliest play-off football I have ever seen.

On a final note - Matt Cassel is about to cash in on a great season. More power to him. I figure we'll know the status of Tom Brady well before the draft. If Brady is on or ahead of schedule, I expect that Cassel will be packaged for draft picks. If he's not, the Patriots have a salary cap issue to address.

Happy New Year all!

The defense is still a bit offensive

The Patriots have clawed their way back into a share of first place with their win over the Rams combined with the Bills loss to the 'Phins.

Once again, Matt Cassel was solid in his role as signal caller, and could have been even better if not for drops from Randy Moss (two touchdowns missed, and a deflection of his hand ended as an interception), and normally sure-handed Wes Welker (dropped a sure first-down, and fell in his route leading to interception two). Cassel led the offense to 23 points on 63 percent passing in spite of an erratic and often ineffective running game (although Kevin Faulk did average 4.1 yards a carry and was the Cassel's best weapon, accounting for a combined 107 yards and a highlight reel touchdown reception).

While I believe the offense could have been better - the team needs to do a better job of helping Cassel out - I don't have too many complaints about the offensive performance other than those noted above.

The defense, however, continues to bother me.

Overall, they did what they needed to do, coming up with the big third down stops pretty regularly. What wasn't good was the regularity with which the Rams hit big plays. Three St. Lois receivers had catches of at least 19 yards, two of them averaged more than 20 yards per catch and one, with six receptions averaged more than 27 yards.

These are not reassuring numbers.

They are a step backwards from last week when the Pats gave up virtually nothing deep.

Will they adjust sans Rodney Harrison? I hope so - but this really wasn't the sort of adjustment I was hoping to see, and I don't care what the record says, next week's Sunday night tilt against the Colts looms large. Even a wounded Peyton Manning is dangerous, and I would like to see that the secondary has made the necessary adjustments to win in Indy next week.

And on a separate note, for those of you who missed it, check out my last post on commercial viability. It's a gas.

Between a rock and a hard case

Football players sacrifice their bodies for a lot of reasons. For many it's the large salaries, for some it's the love of the game, and for others it's the glory that a championship brings. They sacrifice their health and well being. They put a lot on the line.

They are professional sports' tough guys (face it, hockey players are tougher, but that's only because they're certifiably insane - it' not the same thing as just being tough).

Players garner reputations for toughness and durability. Brett Favre has played in every game since he got his first start...in a leather helmet. At least it feels like that's when he got his first start. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning also have started every game since starting - in spite of being banged up. Drew Bledsoe won consecutive games with a pin holding together the tip of his index finger on his throwing hand (and he wasn't leading those comebacks by handing the ball off). He even tried to come back into the now famous Jets game after shearing an artery in his chest (sure, he wasn't in his right mind, but you get the point).

Hall-of-Fame Rams defensive end Jack Youngblood famously played in the NFC Championship game and subsequently Super Bowl XIV with a stress fracture in his left leg. Lawrence Taylor and Emmitt Smith were both major factors in playoff games for their respective teams while each played with a separated shoulder. Terrell Davis famously suffers from debilitating migraines, and had one during Super Bowl XXXII. According to Davis it was so bad that he had trouble seeing. It didn't stop him from lining up, if for nothing else, as a decoy in Denver's backfield.

Recently Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers, both listed as questionable and game-time decisions for the Chargers' loss to the Patriots in this past weekend's AFC Championship game, toughed out the game in the hopes of landing that Super Bowl berth.

Why? Because opportunities to get to the Super Bowl are rare. Many players never get there. Half the teams in the NFL have never won a Super Bowl. Eleven teams account for 35 of the 41 titles. Approximately 18 percent of the league's teams haven't even played in the game.

Dan Marino lost in the big game in his rookie year, and then never got back...in 17 seasons. Linebacker Clay Matthews played for 19 seasons and never made it. Neither did quarterback Vinny Testaverde in his 21 seasons.

As Ron Jaworski is fond of noting - winning in the NFL is hard.

It's why so many of these players play hurt. They believe they give their team the best chance of winning.

Which brings us to LaDainian Tomlinson.

Tomlinson is catching a lot of flack for being on the sideline while his team put up field goal after field goal in Sunday's match-up with the Patriots. He might be as injured as he is now claiming, however, that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve to be called out by the former players that are now part of the entertainment machine that is sports journalism (and when your toughness is questioned by Deion Sanders...well that's just sad).

Tomlinson is defending himself, saying he was no better than 50 percent and that he felt that the healthy duo of Michael Turner and Darren Sproles gave the Chargers the best chance to win. He can defend himself in this manner all he wants - but he dug himself this hole. HE told the team doctors in the days leading up to the game that he was well enough to be taken off of the injury report. HE told the press that he was 90 percent in the days leading up to the game. So, either HE lied to the doctors, press, and San Diego fans in the days leading up to the game, or HE's lying now in order to deflect criticism.

Either way, he deserves to be questioned...deserves to take the hit, so to speak - whether for his toughness, or for unrealistically raising the expectations of the San Diego fans and teammates.

One thing's for sure - it appears that it would have taken being in a wheelchair or on crutches to keep his injured teammates off the field. And, hell, Rivers had [arthroscopic] knee surgery surgery six days before the game.

Tomlinson best get used to being criticized for this one, because it's not going to stop.

Pats spend off-weekend relaxing, Shula calls bye tainted.

It was either that or, "Shula notes Pats failed to win over weekend, unaware they were on their bye."

Currently the AFC East is a hotbed of perfection. Possibly for the first time in the history of the NFL, the same conference is hosting two teams in pursuit of a record with a goose-egg. The Patriots are 9-0, with their toughest competition likely coming from the Steelers, and maybe the Giants.

The Dolphins, the one-time paragon of winning with a 14-0 regular season back in 1972, are fighting for another perfect season - they're seven losses away from 0-16. Of course the perfect season that the 'Phins is a dubious honor to say the least.

Miami likely has four chances out of their final seven games to avoid becoming the first non-expansion team to go an entire season without a victory, and the first team since the NFL expanded to a 16 game slate. Those four games? A rematch with the Jets (1-7), and games against the struggling Ravens (4-5), Bengals (3-6), and Eagles (4-5).

I have my doubts that Miami can go into Buffalo and beat the Bills, or go to Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers, let alone go to New England and pull out a win there.

Sure, there's a reason for the term, "any given Sunday," and an upset could happen. However, I'm guessing that the Dolphins will be the underdog in every game remaining on their schedule, so even if they beat the Ravens, it will technically be considered an upset.

U-G-L-Y

Last night the Chargers won ugly, the Colts lost ugly, Tony Dungy coached ugly (that time-out to argue a penalty was mind-bogglingly stupid, and ended up costing the team at the end of the game), and the Colts special teams - from top to bottom - were ugly.

Vinnie Iyer at the Sporting News was busy trying to put the best spin possible on this loss from the Colts standpoint. He notes that the Colts should not be counted out because of two losses in a row. He's right about that. What he is wrong about is that Manning played like a champion - in spite of playing poorly.

The Colts lost because of a variety of reasons - Manning being one of them. Special teams (Adam Vinatieri left six points on the field), and, as previously mentioned, Dungy and some poor coaching decisions.

When a quarterback throws six interceptions, you can't absolve him of responsibility in a loss.

What this did remind me of - the old argument about swapping the teams of Brady and Manning to see how well each would have done. I seem to remember a couple of years back (2004) that the Patriots went 14-2. Their leading wide-out was David Givens with 874 yards. Reggie Wayne already has 870 with seven games left. Leading receiver for Pats tight ends that year was Daniel Graham with 364 yards, if Dallas Clark (405 yards) remains out, Ben Utecht could still top 300 yards receiving. Joseph Addai (pace for 1400-1500 yards) is comparable to Corey Dillon (1635).

Manning was brutally bad - and the argument that the Colts O line is banged up. The Patriots were starting former Tampa Bay practice squader Russ Hochstein whom Warren Sapp famously said couldn't block Tony Kornheieser. The team started corners Randall Gay and Earthwind Moreland, and used wide-out Troy Brown as their nickel corner. In spite of losing weapons to an injured defense, losing protection (line-men), and losing Ben Watson for all but one game of the season, the Brady never looked as bad as Manning did yesterday.

I think we have our answer as to who does the most to elevate his team to the next level.

HoF Case for Bledsoe, Part 2

Visitors already know where I stand on this. I acknowledge that Bledsoe is a borderline Hall of Famer, but, based on the history of the quarterbacks enshrined, I would say that he is a HoFer never the less. I hear a lot of people talk about how you can not look at these statistics in a vacuum. In that case, let's not.

I addressed in my last post a number of the statistical comparisons...now let's look at something else that's relevant, Hall of Famer players with whom these players played that might have made the quarterback's job easier - defense, linemen, wide receivers, running backs, etc.

Let's even take a look at some of the current quarterbacks that reports regularly call "future HoFer..."

For the purposes of this I am not going to count Vinatieri (even though his best seasons came with Brady), due to the fact that other deserving kickers have been unable to get enshrined, and until Vinatieri is actually voted in, I will not count a kicker amongst the sure-fire or even likely to make it into Canton.

Let me start by posing the following question - Name more than one sure-fire HoF player that Bledsoe played with for more than a season. The only likely candidate I can come up with for Bledsoe is Curtis Martin. The only wide receiver with a shot? Terrell Owens with whom he spent one season and seldom passed to because (this was from a Dallas newspaper) he hadn't bothered to learn the playbook. So Bledsoe played with one definite. The only other is likely Ty Law.

So let's give him two there.

Tom Brady? Four - For at least one of the Super Bowl runs he had a future HoF in running back Corey Dillon and one and a third for Ty Law, for two of them Rodney Harrison, and in all three, Richard Seymour. Remember, I am going with the players with which HoF gets mentioned.

Peyton Manning? Four, possibly five - Marvin Harrison, Edgerin James, Marshall Faulk, possibly Tarik Glenn and some have even begun to mention Reggie Wayne.

Brett Favre? One - Reggie White.

Dan Marino? One - Dwight Stephenson. And even when Stephenson was gone, Marino had go-to guys Mark Duper and Mark Clayton for multiple seasons, Bledsoe never had the same pair of starters for more than two consecutive seasons.

Troy Aikman? When all is said an done it could be as many as three - Michael Irvin, Emmitt Smith, and there has been talk about Larry Allen.

Dan Fouts? Only one - Kellen Winslow (and Fouts didn't have to jump right in like Bledsoe did - his first season he was able to learn under Johnny Unitas and see how things were done by veterans like Deacon Jones).

Terry Bradshaw? Eight - Lynn Swann, John Stalworth, Joe Greene, Mel Blount, Jack Hamm, Franco Harris, Jack Lambert and Mike Webster.

Joe Montana? Two - Jerry Rice, Ronnie Lott.

Warren Moon? Two - Bruce Matthews, Mike Munchak (and even Earl Campbell for a season...and talk about statistics being aided by longevity - he played in the NFL for 20 seasons not including his work in the CFL).

Jim Kelly? Two - James Lofton, Thurman Thomas.

John Elway? The only quarterback that has none listed with him, although Bob Kuchenberg and Terrell Davis have stirred up debates on it (Kuchenburg making it to the round of 17, and Davis being debated by the actual voters), so I give Elway two.

Almost all of those HoF QB's had HoFers catching their passes. The exceptions? Elway, Moon, Favre and future HoFer, Brady. Of those without a big presence catching the ball, Moon played behind two HoF pass-protectors and Elway played behind one on the verge. So only Brady, Bledsoe and Favre among the above lacked the pass catcher and/or protection that all the other quarterbacks benefited from.

Of the quarterbacks to throw for more than 3000 yards at least nine times in their careers (Bledsoe, Favre, Marino, Manning, and Moon), only Favre has done it while surrounded with less talent on the offensive side of the ball.

So, in the modern era of passing who has done more with less? Very few. You can count on one, maybe two hands tops the quarterbacks who have done more with less than Bledsoe - Favre definitely, maybe Fouts, maybe Moon, Steve Young (who also had Rice and Lott), and Elway, but you're going to be hard pressed to argue that any of the other recent Hall of Fame inductees at quarterback did more to raise mediocre talent to a championship level than Bledsoe.

His one truly talented receiver? The oft injured and and mentally impaired Terry Glenn. His most reliable target? Ben Coates who hasn't even sniffed Canton. Outside of those two, non-Pats fans would have a hard time remembering that Bledsoe's big receivers were less a list of who's who at the position than of who's that with Vincent Brisby, Ray Crittenden, Michael Timpson, and Shawn Jefferson. Even with Montana everyone remembers Gary Clark.