Better than expected

That was not the game I was expecting.

It was much better.

A couple of reactions -

The James Harrison interception was the difference in the game. I'm not convinced he got into the end zone on his run back. Actually, I'm pretty sure that his head and his lead forearm were down before the ball crossed the line, but I have to admit that there wasn't enough on replay to overturn the play.

I'm not sure it would have mattered, though, because one of the Cardinals, after the change of possession, committed a facemask penalty and the half can't end on a defensive penalty. As such, the Steelers would have had a final play on offense just before the half from the half-yard line to punch ball in.

The Cardinals played a fairly undisciplined game, committing eleven penalties for 106 yards, and still nearly pulled out the win.

I didn't expect the Cards to run the ball well, but I was a little surprised that the Steelers rushed for only 58 yards (2.2 yards per carry). While the Cards didn't run it often - and only for 33 yards, they averaged 2.8 yards per carry.

I thought there were times that the Pittsburgh defense came across as desperate bullies - once on a punch thrown by a defensive back while out of bounds, and the other time when James Harrison blatantly committed an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on a punt.

I believe that had the Cardinals won Larry Fitzgerald would have been named the MVP - or at the very least that he should have.

Ben Roethlisberger looked fairly pedestrian for most of the game.

The Cardinals defense was better than advertised this post season - much better - but they came up one series short.

As much as I'd like to see them build off of this season, I can't help but think that the Cardinals are going to suffer the post-Super Bowl hangover. As good a season as Kurt Warner had, I think Lisa over at A Red Sox State of Maine has hit on something with Warner - he has not handled losing well. His 16 starts following the 2001 Super Bowl loss - 5-11. From 2001 until this 9-7 season he is 13 - 29 as a starter.

Over and above that, for you pundits that think he's a Hall of Famer (which I have heard too much recently), this is a man that has started 16 games only three times in his 11 year NFL career. To use one of Don Banks arguments against Drew Bledsoe, which was that no Hall of Fame QB has ever lost his starting job three times - Warner has lost his job five times total to the likes of Marc Bulger, Eli Manning, Josh McCown, and Matt Leinart (twice).

I'll write more about this issue later, and cover other off-season goodies in both baseball and football soon.

Super Sunday

I'm already on record as saying that I don't think this if going to be a good game.

I can't help but feeling that we may be looking at a blow-out with the Steelers stomping all over the Cardinals.

Overall, the Cardinals haven't been good away from home. With the exception of the playoffs, they haven't played well against quality teams and they gave up an average of 27.25 points per game against AFC opponents. This game has the makings of being ugly.

I hope I'm wrong.

I hope this game comes down to the last couple of possessions.

Arizona has a lot going for them, but I can't convince myself that it's enough - they have the better quarterback. They have the underdog card. They have coaches that know the Steelers offensive personnel inside and out. They have three wide receivers that racked up over 1000 yards each this season going against a secondary that has had issues against good passing teams.

But they don't have the defense that Pittsburgh has. Nor the running game. And those things are integral to success in January.

I could be wrong. I hope that I am.

But this just doesn't have the feel of a good match-up.

The latest rumor is that the Pats now won't franchise Matt Cassel. While franchising and trading Cassel makes a certain amount of sense - I'm not sure it makes as much sense as letting him become a free-agent. In theory it is better to get something for Cassel rather than letting him walk, but what is Cassel really worth on the free-agent market?

Would the Pats only tender Cassel if there was an understanding that he wouldn't sign the tender?

I have my doubts that any team would sign a deal with Cassel for $14.6 million, making
a trade difficult, unless the Pats only retained Cassel's rights. My guess, if Cassel hits free-agency, he's looking at between $9 million and $11 million per year.

All of this of course begs the question of where Tom Brady is in his rehab. Rumors are that Brady is running, and doing drop back drills, putting his rehab on pace to be ready to start the season. If the Pats are satisfied that Brady is going to be Brady come September, I think they let Cassel walk.

I have a hunch that if the Pats do franchise Cassel, it means that Brady isn't where the Patriots think he needs to be.

Catching up

It's about time I got back to this.

It's been a very, very busy week. So...onto the playoffs.

Well, I was right on one out of the two. Arizona made it, Baltimore did not. I only saw the second half of the Arizona game because I was in a two-hour organizational meeting regarding a blues festival that I'm organizing. Philly made a game of it, but I was right - if it became an offense-oriented game, it favored the Cardinals.

Some thoughts on the Pittsburgh game. The Ravens chances died on the Willis McGahee fumble when safety Ryan Clark lowered the boom on McGahee. I'm up in the air on the legality of the hit, given the rules that have been on the books for some time -

NFL Rule Change 1996
" using any part of a players helmet (including the top/crown and forehead/hairline parts) or facemask to butt, spear, or ram an opponent violently or unnecessarily; although such violent or unnecessary use of the helmet is impermissible against any opponent, game officials will give special attention in administering this rule to protect those players who are in virtually defenseless postures."

NFL Memo Clarification to referees 2007
"Officials will be reminded this week to pay strict attention to these rules and disqualify the fouling player if the action is judged to be flagrant," Pereira wrote in the memo sent to the 32 NFL teams. "Actions that involve flagrant helmet to helmet contact are the likely acts that will include disqualification. Our commissioner and this office remain very focused on the safety of our players."

While McGahee certainly wasn't defenseless, my concern comes from the 2007 clarification that utilizes the term "flagrant." Admittedly, that hit in and of itself is not flagrant, I have to look at Clark's body of work throughout the season and wonder.

I have watched four Pittsburgh games in their entirety throughout the course of the season, and parts of a fifth. In each and every one Clark has had a hit like this - whether it was the shot on McGahee, or Wes Welker, or any of the other players I've seen him hit, he has gone helmet-to-helmet. I haven't seen that from any of his teammates. Not Troy Polamalu, not the linebackers. None of the other big hitters has gone helmet-to-helmet in every single game.

Just Clark.

It makes me wonder about his intention when he's tackling.

That said, we're now looking at a Steelers-Cardinals Super Bowl.

There's going to be a ton of hype between now and Super Bowl Sunday, and usually I like to digest some of that, listen to what the pundits say, and then ignore them accordingly. In this case, I'm going to say it up front. In two weeks time, the Steelers will officially become the second most dominant team of the first decade of the new millennium, becoming only the second team in the last ten years to win multiple Super Bowls.

A separate piece of entertainment -

A week ago this past Saturday I covered a ghost hunt at a local brewery. The local ghost hunters spent over an hour and a half prepping myself and roughly two dozen brewery employees and their family members. To say that the ghost hunters were, um, interesting, is an understatement.

I will write more about it after the article hits the stands at the beginning of next month, but I will say that it stretched my ability as a journalist to approach something with an open mind. To be more precise, I had to work very hard during the orientation part of the evening to maintain a straight face.

Thoughts on this Sunday

The NFC Championship game might be the biggest surprise to me from the entire season. Yes - before the season began, I predicted that the Eagles would outlast any of their NFC East rivals, but I figure that to be a regular season thing, not post. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised by just about anything - I could just as easily see a Cardinals-Ravens Super Bowl as a Steelers-Eagles bowl. That said, if I had to make a prediction - and I don't think, given the last couple of weeks, anything can be said decisively - this is my breakdown on what to expect this weekend...

The Eagles are playing great defense right now, but the Cardinals have more weapons on offense than the Giants, and the Cardinals are playing as well on offense as the Eagles are on defense. Additionally, like the Colts during their championship run a couple of years ago, the Cardinals are actually playing sterling defense right now.

Of all the teams left, the Cardinals might be playing the best across the board. I don't know that this will translate into a Lombardi being raised in the desert, but, at this point, it wouldn't surprise me....but I'm getting ahead of myself.

If I had to call it, I would say that the Cardinals are going to walk out of this one as the winner. Donovan McNabb had an okay game last weekend, but not great, completing only 55 percent of his passes with one touchdown and one turnover. If the Cardinals make McNabb have to beat them in the same way the Giants did (taking away Brian Westbrook), then I have a hard time believing that the Eagles will keep up.

I think that Arizona has too many weapons on offense, and if the Cardinals line keeps Kurt Warner upright (the Patriots showed back in the 2001 Super Bowl that the best way to rattle Warner is to pressure the receivers and knock them off their routes, not to blitz Warner - and the Eagles D lives by the blitz), I don't think the Eagles have the cover guys to match up with the Arizona receivers.

My guess is that the Cards walk out with a ten point win, but, as I said, after the two rounds we have already witnessed, nothing will surprise me.

Over in the AFC, I see, in essence, two large cavemen smacking the crap out of each other with their clubs.

This is in no way, shape, or form, an offensive struggle of any kind. We're looking at the Monster Mash with the two best defenses hammering on grind-it-out style offenses. It will be the sort of game where it won't even come down to the last team with the ball. It will be whatever team's defense comes up with the game-changing play.

I could easily see this as a one point game, decided on field goals, safeties, or an interception return for a touchdown.

If I went based on who I think is more banged up, I would guess that the Steelers were going to win. If I were going on odds, I would go with the Ravens, based on the idea that it is really difficult to beat the same team three times in the same season even when the loser of the first two contests is mediocre - and the Ravens aren't mediocre. They're really good.

If one of these two teams definitively had a quarterback as good as either Donovan McNabb, or Kurt Warner, I would feel that there was a definite advantage for one of the two teams, as such, I just tossed a coin and am going with the Ravens.

There you have it - if my wishy-washy predictions are accurate, we might well have the fowl-est Super Bowl ever. Sorry for the pun, and enjoy the playoffs this weekend. If I think of something between now and Friday, I will be sure to post it, along with a story about this past Saturday night and its relation to my latest column for the Brewing News.

Quick hits during a busy week...

It's about time that Jim Rice got into the Hall of Fame.

There have been many who were detractors, trying to compare him unfavorably to other players or Hall of Famers - seldom comparing him to the peers with whom he played. From 1975 through 1986 - a twelve season stretch - Rice led the AL in total games played, at bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging average, total bases, extra base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.^[3] Among all major league players during that time, Rice was the leader in five of these categories. In five categories he was better than anyone in the game - better than Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson, Carlton Fisk, Tony Perez, and any other Hall of Famer from that era.

Detractors like to point to his defense, and talk about the advantage he had playing in Fenway's short left, forgetting that the Green Monster wreaks havoc with visiting outfielders. The Monster both giveth and taketh away - defensively it's more difficult than people remember when it comes time to vote for the Hall. They also forget that Reggie Jackson was brutal in the outfield. Additionally, Rice was a six-time top five candidate for the MVP during that 12 season stretch, including a win in 1978. Jackson was a top five candidate five times over a 12 season stretch and hit 100 RBI's or more only six times over a 21 season career. Rice - eight times.

Yes, Jackson was a monster in the post season, but Rice was better than most people give him credit for - in 1986 he also scored 14 runs and drove in six. The 14 runs Rice scored is the fifth most recorded by an individual during a single year's postseason play.

Jackson was inducted in his second year of eligibility. It took Rice 15.

It's a shame they took this long to get it right.

For the Birds...

So - if anyone had told me, pretty much at any time in the last couple of weeks, that the NFC Championship game would come down to Arizona holding court against Philly, I would have laughed hard enough to give myself a hernia. Philly I figured could make it that far, even though I believed it to be unlikely, but the Cardinals? Anyone else notice any signs of an impending Apocalypse?

Elsewhere around the NFL...

I was a little surprised by Josh McDaniels choice to go to Denver. Lately it's a situation where it seems like the inmates are running the asylum. I figured that there was every possibility he would end up wherever Scott Pioli did.

Rumors are that Terrell Owens might be on the chopping block in Dallas. Wonder where he ends up if that happens. Oakland, maybe?

Good luck in your next line of work Tony Dungy. I gotta admit, I thought he'd be back for one more season. It should be interesting to see what happens in Indy next season.

The week's happenings...

Eric Mangini is now the coach of the Browns.

Peter King pointed out something interesting here, and it appears Randy Lerner hasn't learned from past mistakes. The last time the Browns had coaching and front office changes, Lerner hired the coach he wanted, and then hired his personnel guy. The coach was from the Patriots' system (Romeo Crennel), and the general manager was plucked out of the Ravens' offices (Phil Savage). By all accounts the two didn't work well together, and, of course, Savage was forced to work with a coach who was not his pick.

Fast forward to today. Mangini, like Crennel, a product of the Belichick system, was hired by Lerner. There is no GM in place, but by all accounts it's going to be another guy out of Baltimore's front offices. Anyone else sense a pattern here?

Personally, I don't see Mangini being any more successful than Crennel was.

Pacman Jones may very well be done. I've said this before, but when the Cowboys think you're too much of a thug, then the only team left is Oakland. Even so, I'm not convinced he'll be allowed to play given the latest news hitting the wires.

Even if Jones gets off by copping a plea, in the NFL's eyes it will be admitting at least some culpability on the part of Jones who allegedly ordered a shooting. Roger Goodell made it perfectly clear that Jones was on a short leash. This has to be the last chance.

For Pittsburgh, home field advantage in the playoffs is a myth. With Ben Roethlisberger under Center the Steelers are 3-0 in road games during the playoffs, but they're only 1-2 at home. In the three home games Big Ben has thrown eight interceptions against five touchdowns. On the road he's thrown seven touch downs against only one interception. In the losses he's thrown for an average of 248 yards per game and the team has averaged 25.3 points per game while giving up 29.7 ppg. In the wins - 226.7 yards per game, and 28.7 ppg scored while giving up 17.3 ppg.

Those numbers confirm something I have always said about Roethlisberger - if the team gets into a shoot out, Big Ben is prone to the mistake that will kill the team. I just didn't realize that he was more prone to make that mistake at Heinz Field.

The Panthers have to be feeling pretty good about their match-up with the Cardinals this weekend. The Panthers went undefeated at home this season while Arizona went 2-6 on the road, beating only the lowly Rams and Seahawks on the road.

So the Sox will be signing Rocco Baldelli and John Smoltz according to reports. I like the signings. Baldelli could be a great help coming off the bench, and from what I've read, might be in better shape to play more than he did last season given that his condition was misdiagnosed.

I like the Smoltz signing. It's not a sexy signing, but with the top three of the rotation already set with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Daisuke Matsuzaka and the Sox already having Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and youngsters Clay Buccholz, Michael Bowden, and possibly Justin Masterson competing for the fourth, fifth, and swing-starter/long reliever positions on the staff, Smoltz will have a chance to get healthy and act as insurance on the pitching staff.

If I had to call it, by mid-season I think Masterson is the swing guy with the rotation looking like this -

Beckett, Lester, Dice, Penny, Smoltz/Wake (I figure there will be some time in the DL for Wake who has spent some time there each of the last two seasons).

Cleaning the Junk Drawer, part 2

LaDainian Tomlinson is cooked. Yes, Tomlinson put up respectable numbers, but for the second straight year he broke down at the end of the season and has been the most talented bench warmer in the playoffs.

Each of the last two seasons Tomlinson's yards per rush average has decreased - first by half a yard, and then between this past season and the previous one, a shade under a yard. Tomlinson ran for fewer yards, produced fewer yards from scrimmage and averaged fewer rushing yards per game than at any other time in his career.

Over and above that, Tomlinson might be one of the more overrated running backs...ever. He's a regular season stud, but he's a post season dud.

Consider, for a guy who's supposed to be a game changer, he's come up flat in the big games - in six post-season appearances Tomlinson has averaged 3.6 yards per rush (regular season - 4.4), and only once exceeded 80 yards rushing (123 in a loss to the Patriots). The Chargers are 3-3 in the post season with Tomlinson, but in the team's three wins, Tomlinson has combined to rush for 95 yards (28, 42, and 25) in those three games on 33 carries (2.9 yards per carry). Not exactly an impact player in the NFL's second season.

The current rumor is that Scott Pioli is likely to land the KC position. If that happens, don't be surprised if Josh McDaniels ends up there - or Matt Cassel. It would be kind of ironic if Cassel ends up as the starter for the team that, in essence, launched his pro career, wouldn't it?

I would not be the least bit surprised if all three end up in the same place. The only issue I see is that if it is KC, that Pioli won't want to give up that first round pick because the Chiefs are desperately in need of a stud offensive lineman - unless he believes that the draft is deep enough that he will be able to get someone in the second or third round that can make a difference up front.

What the hell happened to the Celtics in the last two weeks?

I think the American League East is a lot of ifs -

If the Yankees pitching staff stays healthy, they can make the playoffs. Sure, they're likely to have a solid one-two with CC Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang, but AJ Burnett has a history of injury, as does Joba Chamberlain when he starts (that goes back to before he was drafted - it's why the Yankees were able to get him with the 41st pick). If the Yankees have to rely on Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy for a significant number of starts, they should forget about the playoffs in the Bronx.

If Josh Beckett returns to form, and Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka continue to develop the way they have been, then the Sox have the best staff in the East and should make the playoffs.

If the Rays staff - including the bullpen - repeats the year they just had, they should be the favorites, particularly given the signing of Pat Burrell. Burrell is not a superstar, but he is a solid middle of the order (5th, 6th) sort of batter that will knock in about 90 runs and score about 72 runs in a season.

Speaking of the Yankees - kind of offensive that they go out and commit to over $400 million in contracts and then turnaround and tell the City of New York that they need $300 million more to finish the stadium, isn't it?

As good as the Eagles and the Ravens looked this past weekend, I don't think either team will go all the way, although I give the Ravens a better chance than the Eagles. Philly has a tendency to become too one dimensional. The flip side is that I don't trust the Giants without Plaxico Burress - they just haven't been that great without him.

I'm not saying that the best team is going to win the Super Bowl, but if I were to call it, I would say that the likely winner will be whoever is left standing in the Steelers-Ravens game, as long as the winner of that contest comes out healthy. Were I to rank the remaining teams based on their chances, I think I would look at it like this -

1. Steelers
2. Titans
3. Ravens
4. Panthers
5. Giants
6. Eagles
7. Cardinals
8. Chargers

If I had to venture a guess, the winner will be from the top four listed there and that the Giants will not repeat. Just a hunch.

Cleaning out the junk drawer of my mind for the new year

Just some random observations about a variety of things...

First, I want to address the NFL MVP - Peyton Manning got that on reputation alone. He did not deserve it this season as he was as culpable in the Colts record through the first seven games as he was responsible for digging them out of the same hole. A lot of people with the MVP vote claim the Colts would have been horrible without Manning under center, but I don't buy that they would have been any worse than 3-4 through seven games before Manning came back if they had Jim Sorgi taking the snaps.

Consider - Sorgi, for his career, has seen action in 15 games (14 if you don't count the one time in 2006 when he came in to take a knee). In those 14 games, Sorgi is 99 for 156 for 929 yards, 6 touchdowns, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 89.9. As that was a lot of partial games, break that down to five games with an average of 20 completions on 31 attempts, 186 yards, and 1 touchdown per game. Certainly passable and capable of winning three or four games over a seven game season.

There are at least five players that have had a bigger impact on their respective teams - Michael Turner, Matt Ryan, Chad Pennington, Ed Reed, James Harrison all significantly change the equation if they're not on their teams, and it's unlikely that any of their teams make the playoffs without them.

The Falcons were exposed as young and inexperienced in what I thought was one of the more boring playoff games I have ever seen.

I like the way the Red Sox rotation is shaping up, and have a hunch that a lot of people are going to panic because the Sox aren't overspending to get the big, sexy names in free-agency. If this works out the way I think it will, the Sox off-season is going to be compared to the Patriots' 2001 free agent signings. A lot of really solid guys that help make a winner, but aren't the biggest names out there.

How many times does Scott Boras have to publicly screw the pooch before his clients begin to get worried. He was publicly neutered in the last Alex Rodriguez negotiations, blinked in his game of chicken with the Sox during the Daisuke Matsuzaka negotiations, he got lucky in the Mark Texiera sweepstakes in that the Yankees swooped in and pretty much bid against no one, overplayed his hand with both Jason Varitek and Manny Ramirez.

Let's look at Ramirez for a second.

It's well known that Ramirez, likely on the advice of Boras, engineered his exit from Boston in an effort to get out from under his option years. That's not going to sit well with other general managers who will wonder if Ramirez will pull the same stunt on their teams.

Reportedly, Boras told Ramirez that he could get a four year contract for an average of $25 million per year, more than the two option years at $20 million each that the Sox would have had. Since the end of the season Ramirez has received a two-year $45 million offer from the Dodgers (since rescinded), and a three-year incentive-laden deal with a club option for a fourth year from the Giants. I'm guessing the dollars aren't in the right neighborhood based on the following from KPIX in San Fran -

The chances of the Giants signing Ramirez, a 36-year-old left fielder, were unclear. A team spokesperson told CBS 5, "it's not happening."

There was a lot of speculation that Roger Clemens would get a pardon from family friend George W. Bush and in so doing, avoid the legal implications of the federal charges that are likely to stem from the FBI investigation. Looks like charges aren't even going to get filed until after Bush leaves office. Sucks to be Roger.

I look at the Yankees off-season and can't help think that they learned nothing from the Carl Pavano signing. Nor have they learned anything from the history of fat pitchers.

The CC Sabathia signing might work well for them in the regular season for the first year or two, but eight seasons? That's nuts.

Sid Fernandez, who had weight issues, last started more than 20 games at age 29. Former Red Sox reliever Rich "El Guapo/the human zeppelin" Garces was respectable until the age of 30. At 31 he posted a 7.59 ERA and was out of baseball after that season. Once dominant Bartolo Colon had an eight season stretch wherein he pitched fewer than 200 innings only once (188 in 2000) and averaged 32.6 starts per season. When he turned 33 he went away - compiling a total of 35 starts and fewer than 200 combined innings over the final three seasons of his career. Sabathia turns 30 in 2010.

The future is not bright for him.

Congrats to the Cardinals who have finally won a playoff game after a 60+ year absence from the post-season.

I don't want to hear any excuses today regarding the Colts. They were beaten by a depleted 8-8 team - a team without its best running back, their best linebacker, and with their best receiving threat, Antonio Gates, hobbled by a high ankle sprain. The Chargers didn't even play that great a game, twice giving the ball back to the Colts in the red zone while threatening to score. And then the Colts defense imploded during the final drive - that was some of the ugliest play-off football I have ever seen.

On a final note - Matt Cassel is about to cash in on a great season. More power to him. I figure we'll know the status of Tom Brady well before the draft. If Brady is on or ahead of schedule, I expect that Cassel will be packaged for draft picks. If he's not, the Patriots have a salary cap issue to address.

Happy New Year all!

Life

Thanks to the Seattle Seahawks, the Patriots still have life in regards to the playoffs. The Jets, less so.

New England handled business in The Razor with a thorough dismantling of the NFC West champion Cardinals in every phase of the game. Any euphemism you can think of to describe this game, it's what the Pats did to the warm weather team that hasn't played a game in the snow in two and a half decades.

Matt Cassel outplayed Kurt Warner, Jabar Gaffney pretty much outplayed Larry Fitzgerald, hell, Cassel, Sammy Morris, and Lamont Jordan all put up better rushing stats than any running back on Arizona's roster.

Mike Wright and Jarvis Green did something rare this season - put pressure, regularly, on the Cardinals signal callers. Even wide receiver Matthew Slater got into the act while playing safety, springing Brandon Merriweather free on a blitz.

It was a good win for the Patriots who needed it, and a bad loss for a team looking to make some noise in the post season.

Looking at the rest of the AFC East still alive for the playoffs - the second life of Brett Favre is paling in comparison to that of Chad Pennington. If Eric Mangini doesn't do something drastic, the Dolphins will almost definitely be the AFC East champs next weekend.

One quick thought on that -

There's a very strong possibility that the Pats will go 11-5 and miss the playoffs. If that happens, so be it - it has already been a better season than I could possibly have imagined given the litany of season ending injuries to the likes of Tom Brady, Rodney Harrison, Laurence Maroney, Tedy Bruschi, and others on the Pats roster. It is also reassuring for next year.

There will be a lot made about how the rest of the AFC East has closed the gap, pointing to the records - and they have indeed closed the gap, but I don't think that either the Jets or 'Phins split with the Pats if New England has a healthy Tom Brady.

This is what I believe in regards to the AFC East -

Chad Pennington has helped the Dolphins close the gap significantly more than Brett Favre has.

I think the end of the season Brett Favre is more likely what we will see for the majority of next season than the beginning of this past season Brett Favre. The tank is running on empty. At best, he has eight good games left in him. It would be nice if one of them came next weekend.

The injuries to the Pats this year could be a blessing in disguise, as it will make competition at linebacker and defensive back much more fierce next season. I expect more from the defense next season, and also believe that the Pats brain trust will address that side of the ball in the draft.

I'm not convinced Scott Pioli is going anywhere, but there will be a lot of rumors about where he's going to end up.

I do think Josh McDaniels is going somewhere, but I don't know if he's ready to run his own show yet.

One last note - Detroit is one game away from a perfect season. I'm rooting for the Packers next weekend.

Random thoughts around the league

So, I was really wrong about the Eagles.

Boy, how Andy Reid's star has fallen. The one time offensive genius is getting slammed for a lot of stupidity, and deservedly so. Reid has assembled a team with no power back, which means third and one might as well be third and ten, and he has learned absolutely nothing from his success from the times he managed to win sans Donovan McNabb.

Reid, in the last couple of years, has had his greatest success by increasing the team's number of rushing attempts to have a, or close to a 50-50 split with passing plays. But every time he has McNabb under center, that ratio jumps to a minimum of 60 percent passing plays, if not more.

For a coach that's supposed to be as bright as Reid, it amazes me that he hasn't figured this out. It's like he's channeling Mike Martz.

I've gotta tip my hat to the Jets. They've gone on a damn fine run. Were it not for the flip of a coin, we might be looking at a flip in the standings between the Jets and the Pats.

The Jets are playing some of the best ball of the year, but I still say that right now the Titans are the team to beat in the AFC.

As good as the Cardinals have been, I think they're one and done in the playoffs. I'm not saying they can't make some noise, but they've struggled a bit against the better teams.

If the season stopped now, the Dallas Cowboys could potentially be the biggest disappointments in the league. They would be completely out of the playoffs. Currently they're behind the Panthers, Redskins and Falcons, in that order, for the NFC wild card.

With games against the Giants, Steelers and Ravens coming up, it's entirely possible that the Cowboys could top out at nine wins and miss the playoffs.

Live from the Outer Banks, iiiiiittttt'sss the Aaaaannnngry Fan

So, I've been in Corolla, NC, for the last week (I'm still there as I type this on the porch of the beach house the family has rented). It's been a little difficult to give a rat's ass about a whole lot going on when I've been sitting in breezy low 80 degree temperatures. It has also been kind of hard to focus with my two daughters and four nieces tearing around the house like miniature banshees. So I have largely been spending days at the beach cranking through Dennis Lehane novels.

Some quick thoughts and then my pre-season take on the NFC West...

Is it just me, or has there been a domino effect on the bullpen every time Clay Buchholz has pitched lately? He struggles, they go to the pen, and they struggle. It's almost as though they're taking their cue from whoever the starter is and if the starter sucks it up, so too does the pen. I haven't looked closely to see if this is true, but it certainly feels like this is what's been happening lately. It's probably for the best that Buchholz was sent back down.

If the Sox can't come up with a viable replacement for Buchholz, a guy who can go at least .500 in his place, the Sox are going to lose out on the division, and likely the playoffs, as the AL Central looks like it has a pretty strong chance of sending two teams to the big dance.

Carl Pavano is expected to start for the Yankees on Saturday. Stick a fork in 'em. Right now this is their rotation -

Mike Mussina
Carl Pavano
Darrell Rasner
Andy Pettitte
Sid Ponson

That's not only not a championship rotation, it's a rotation that's barely average. Only one of the starters gives up fewer than four runs per nine innings pitched, and that's Mike Mussina. Not exactly known for coming up big in the late season pressure games (sure, he hasn't been awful in the post-season, but 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA is hardly dominating, or impressive).

Now onto the West...

This is a hard one to call because, like the AFC West, the NFC West is rife with mediocre and bad teams. It's hard to ascribe any separation between the Rams and the 49ers, as well as the Cardinals and the Seahawks. The two duos definitively make up the top and the bottom of a bad division. One of the teams might surprise, it's always possible, but this is how I see it...

4. 49ers - I think this is a team going backwards. They appear to lack a true NFL quality quarterback, instead having three guys that would be back-ups on other teams. Frank Gore is solid at running back, but the passing game and the defense are suspect. I have a hard time seeing this team improve on the five wins of a year ago, and suspect that they could slip to a four win season easily.

3. Rams - Like San Fran, I'm not convinced of this team's improvement. However, with contests against the rival 49ers (twice), the Jets, Dolphins, Falcons, and Bills, there's a chance this team could eke out five or six wins, although, I suspect at least one loss to the Niners, and possible losses to the Jets and Bills. I wouldn't be surprised by three wins, but I would be by any more than six.

2. Seahawks - I haven't been thrilled by this team's personnel moves since the Super Bowl loss to the Steelers. I think they overpaid for Deion Branch, an oft-injured, undersized receiver who got it into his head, and into the Seahawks' heads that he was better than really is. They let one of the better offensive linemen on the team walk away. They signed TJ Duckett, who I feel has never quite lived up to what little hype has surrounded him. The only signing I liked was Julius Jones. While they are clearly one of the most consistent teams in the NFC, I believe time has chipped away at their hold on the division and that they may be in danger of missing the post-season this year. All that said, I'm looking at nine wins, maybe ten for this team.

1. Cardinals - I'm buying into the hype. The last time I did, I got burned, but I'm going to ride with it again. Knowing the history of this team, they could easily wind up at the bottom of the division, but I think they're poised for a playoff run. They have a young, high-octane offense in place that has shown signs of life the last two seasons. With the offensive weapons in place, the Arizona brain trust has concentrated on their defensive shortcomings, and the buzz out of the desert is that the D could be pretty good this year. If that happens, this could be a team that makes some noise. They'll have their work cut out for them with all the teams from the East on their schedule, but I can see them stealing one here and there to fight their way to around ten wins.

Crushing

It was a good weekend to be a Boston fan. Some quick thoughts on the weekend...

He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue...

The Celtics played a series against Atlanta that saw both teams hold serve at home. The C's just lacked the intensity on the road that they had at home. They gave a sub-.500 team hope.

Then they crushed them.

The closest the game ever got was when the Hawks went up 3-0 in the first quarter. It was over by the half.

With more than a quarter to go, the Celtics went up 70-34.

Early in the third the Hawks Marvin Williams put Rajon Rondo on the floor with a flagrant foul and was kicked out of the game. Kevin Garnett went old-school. Larry Bird would have been proud. Garnett put a vicious screen on the Hawks' Zaza Pachulia, putting Pachulia on his ass.

The bottom line, the game was never in doubt and maybe, just maybe the Celtics have figured out what they need to do going forward to put another banner in the Garden's rafters.

One last note - big time players come up big in big games. Atlanta's Mike Bibby, a one time all-star, was a virtual no-show in the games in Boston. His line in game one - 5 points, 1 assist; game two - 12 points, 1 assist; game five - 6 points, 1 assist; game seven - 2 points, 2 assists. Atlanta lost those games by an average of 25.25 points.

Now, I will admit to not being the biggest basketball fan, but I seem to recall that point-guards like Bibby are the guys that set the offense and rack up the assists. He averaged 1.25 per game in the Garden to go with his 6.25 points per game average in Boston.

To put that in perspective, Bibby, on his home court, averaged 5.67 assists per game and 15.67 points per game. Way to be clutch.

Rays rocked by Sox...

In the weekend's three game series Tampa scored ten runs - an average of 3.3 runs per game. Not great, not terrible. Certainly good enough, if their pitching is solid, to come up with two wins in three games.

Didn't happen.

After a brutal stretch in which the Sox had trouble scoring runs, they absolutely exploded against the Rays. Through the three games Boston put up 26 total runs - just under nine per game.

Jon Lester had possibly the best outing of the Sox' starters, going six innings while giving up one earned run on four hits. It was his second straight quality start. A day earlier, Josh Beckett went eight innings, but gave up four runs, and in the first game rookie starter Clay Buchholz was good in giving up only one run, but was lifted with one out in the sixth inning.

All told, however, Sox starters gave up six of Tampa's ten runs, with four coming from Beckett. Lester and Buchholz combined for a 1.46 ERA in their two starts. It can be dismissed that it was done against the Rays until the following is considered - the second place (yeah, you read that right) Rays are 6th in the AL in RBI's, home runs, and 9th in batting average. Overall, 14th in RBI's, 13th in home runs, and 15th in average. They are, indeed, a solid, middle of the road sort of team with pitching (through this weekend) comparable to the Sox (4.12 staff ERA to the Sox 4.13)

Different directions...

This is the Jets-Patriots relationship in microcosm...

Since Victor Hobson (signed this off-season by the Patriots) was drafted by the Jets in 2003, the linebacker has been solid, racking up fewer than 50 tackles only once (45 in 2004). He has averaged 68.6 tackles per season, racked up 11 sacks, and 3 interceptions. He has appeared all 16 games all but once in his five seasons.

The Jets let him go to free agency without a fight. Then they went out and signed Calvin Pace away from the Arizona Cardinals. Pace, drafted in the same year as Hobson, has appeared in all sixteen games in in three of his five seasons, racked up an average of 37.2 tackles per season, 14 total sacks and 1 interception. If you discount the 98 tackles he had in his contract year, Pace averaged 22 tackles per season, had a total of 7.5 sacks and no interceptions.

I can't help but think that it's going to be another long season for Jets fans with signings like that.

Much ado...and at least one answer

There's a lot being made of the Giants 9 game road winning streak going into Green Bay, and not to take anything away from the Giants who have been road warriors this season, but the Packers haven't been slouches at home, going into this game with an 8-1 record at Lambeau this season.

How about this statistic for home field advantage - the Patriots have won 13 straight at the Razor, last losing to the Jets over 14 months ago. Also, the team is undefeated in Championship games at Foxborough, and undefeated in post-season games held in Massachusetts in sub-freezing temperatures since Bill Belichick took over the team.

The hosting teams have four Super Bowl rings in five appearances and are 6-2 in this round of the playoffs, the second loss was by Tom Brady in last season's match-up in Indianapolis. Brady is 3-0 in championship games held in Foxborough.

As for the answer...

Teresa posed a question to me - has the AFC East hosted the best and worst teams in the NFL before this season? Yes. The first time the East held the dubious distinction was in 1984 when the Dolphins and a rookie Dan Marino led the league with a 14-2 record while the Buffalo Bills brought up the rear with a 2-14 record.

All of this has inspired the final note...a note on futility -

The Arizona Cardinals, the longest active franchise in professional football - actually predating the league currently known NFL - hasn't won a championship since 1947. The team was founded in 1899 under the name the Morgan Athletic Club on the South Side of Chicago. It later became the Racine (Street) Cardinals, then the Chicago Cardinals, St. Louis Cardinals, Phoenix Cardinals, and finally the Arizona Cardinals.

In 108 years this team has won two championships, an average of one every 54 years. Their last title was 20 years before the Super Bowl.

This team did Chicagoans a favor by moving from the Windy City.

The teams that haven't even made it to the Super Bowl include the Browns, Cardinals, Lions, Saints, Texans and Jaguars. As far as opportunities - All but the Texans and Jaguars were in existence at the beginning of the Super Bowl Era (technically the Saints for the second). The Texans and the Jags have been around for, combined, less than 20 Super Bowls (the Jags first year was 1995, the Texans 2002).

Then there are those who have made it to the big game only to lose - Eagles, Bills, Vikings, Oilers/Titans, Bengals, Chargers, Falcons, Panthers, and Seahawks. Unless the Chargers can get past the Patriots tomorrow, it means that the winner of this Super Bowl will come from the pool of 16 winners of the 41 previous Super Bowls.

Of the three active teams in the playoffs that previously won, all are multiple winners - the Giants with two (1986, 1990), the Packers with three (1967, 1968, 1996), and the Patriots with three (2001, 2003, 2004). Other multiple winners include with five each - the Steelers, 49ers, and Cowboys; with three are the Raiders and Redskins; and with two are the Dolphins, Colts, and Broncos.

Of the 41 Super Bowls already played, 11 teams account for 35 of the titles - if you're wondering why the math is off, I think it's because of the whole affair between the Cleveland and Baltimore with the Browns' move and subsequent name change, however, I might just be missing a team in there.

Either way, it's likely that a franchise that has already won a Super Bowl will be getting fitted for another set of rings come February.

Five weeks left...

With five weeks left in the regular season, there are certain truths that have become crystal clear in the NFL. Barring collapses of epic proportions, Green Bay and Dallas should represent their respective divisions in the playoffs and be the one and two seeds in the NFC. With a win tonight, Green Bay would clinch the NFC North.

The Patriots have five teams to go through to tie Miami's single season record for consecutive wins. The teams with the best chance to stop it between now and then is the ones that get the most creative in the way they play. Philly already proved that.

The Dolphins have a strong chance to go 0-16. Miami has lost six games by three points, and their best chance for a win will probably come against the offensively deficient Ravens in December.

Currently in the NFC, the wild card standings are as follows -

1. NY Giants
2. Detroit Lions
3. NO Saints
4. Arizona Cardinals
5. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Washington Redskins

I'll call it right now. The Giants and the Cardinals get in, Detroit will struggle to their first non-double digit loss season since the 2000 at 7-9, and this will mark Donovan McNabb's last season in Philadelphia.

The current wild card standings in the AFC -

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Cleveland Browns
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Denver Broncos
5. Buffalo Bills

The most likely changes in the AFC playoff picture really take into account the possibility that the Colts could end up the top wild card entry and the Broncos could knock the Chargers out of the playoff picture. With the soft final five for the Browns, I wouldn't rule out Cleveland and Pittsburgh tying with an 11-5, or even a 12-4 record. However, a tie still puts the Browns behind the Steelers by virtue of their two losses to the Steelers and no better than the fifth seed, no matter how bad the record of the AFC West champion is.

Let the games begin.

The weekend that was...

What a weird weekend.

There are a lot of things that happened in the last three days that I would not have thought possible, or even likely four days ago -

• The Phillies, looking every bit the champion in taking advantage of the Mets' woes in managing to overtake New York to win the East. Now New York teams bear two dubious honors - the worst post-season collapse in the history (see Yankees), and now the worst regular season collapse in the history of baseball with the Mets coughing up a seven game lead with seventeen left to play. No team in the history of baseball has done that.
• New York fans can look at the bright side - the Giants took revenge on the Eagles on the Mets behalf. That Sunday night game was just ugly, and unless the Eagles make adjustments, every team they face is going to attack that turnstile they call a left tackle. Actually, to call Winston Justice a turnstile is to pay him a compliment - turnstiles slow people down when they have to drop a token in the slot. Osi Umenyiori would at least have had to break stride on his way to McNabb had he encountered a turnstile. He blocked like a kicker tackles...ole.
• Anyone here see the Cardinals win over the Steelers coming? Anyone? Ken Wisenhut, put your hand down.
• The Chicago Bears offense was...well...offensive. I said it last week, Greise is not the answer. Let's face it, the Bears are hoping that a guy who failed to make the grade in four previous spots would bail them out of their quarterbacking predicament. This is going to be a long, long season for the Chicago faithful. If Greise has another start like this one, get used to the following words Bears fans; Welcome to the Kyle Orton era.
• Reportedly JP Losman is worried about his job as the starter in Buffalo. He should be. From the little I have seen of his back-up, Trent Edwards, the rookie looks to be as far along as the now veteran Losman in terms of development, and that should worry Losman. Of the two, right now I think Edwards gives the team the best chance to win over the long haul.
• Brett Favre looks like he has found the fountain of youth.
• When a team blows a first round pick on a glorified kick returner when in desperate need of a quarterback, is it any surprise to see that team start 0-4. I'm talking about you Miami, I'm talking about you.
• Could Cleveland (2-2) have turned a corner? They are currently 2-1 in their division, putting them in second place in the AFC North ahead of the 2-2 Ravens. It's still early, but Cincy and Baltimore are giving the Browns hope. In their next three they have a tough game against the Patriots, winnable games against the Dolphins and Rams, and if they can steal a game from the Seahawks, they could go into their rematch against the Steelers at a respectible 5-3. If they keep playing like this, ten wins might not be out of the question. I'm guessing eight, but ten wouldn't surprise me, not at this point. Looks like Romeo Crennel might be well on his way to saving his job.
• Take heart Denver fans - as bad as the final score looked, the Broncos did a lot of good things on offense that will pay dividends down the road if and when the defense comes together. Granted, Jay Cutler can use more seasoning, but there was nothing wrong with that running game.

Just a few thoughts.

Monday morning riffin'

Stupid is as stupid does. And people paid $30.00 to watch that.

The current numbers on Eric Gagne in a Red Sox uniform - seven runs in four innings over five games. Incredibly, that means that Gagne managed to lower his ERA for his time in Boston from 16.20 to 15.75 yesterday.

The Yankees certainly got hot at the right time - getting healthy against the bottom feeders over the last month, and then having games against struggling Indians and Tigers clubs. Of course it helps that the Bommahs are currently facing off against the only division in the American League against whom they have a winning record.

Approximately eight weeks ago the Yanks trailed by 14.5 games. Today that lead is four games. Sox fans can thank the Central for that as against the East (21-23), and the West (12-13) combined the Yankees are three games below .500 - the Central (23-7) on the other hand is having trouble buying wins against the Yanks who have a gaudy .767 winning percentage against the home division of the reigning AL champs.

Note to Vince Young - you're supposed to be the team leader. Team leaders don't get suspended from exhibition games.

Props to former Cardinals pitcher and current Cards outfielder Rick Ankiel - four games played since rejoining the club. During that time - 16 AB, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 6 K's and an on base percentage of .417. While it's pretty much impossible that he could keep this pace up over an entire season, right now this is how that translates over 500 at bats - 94 HR, 188 HR, 188 K's. The man's on fire right now, but will cool off. I just thought it was appropriate to recognize the tear he's on since his call-up.

A few bright things from Friday's exhibition match between the Patriots and Buccaneers after noting that the defense - starting and back-up alike - struggled against the run. Hopefully that works itself out. As a whole, really, it's a chance to get a look at the young talent and begin guessing who has a shot at making the team and who doesn't.

In extended time the following looked good -

Mike Wright appears to be continuing his progression as a reliable back-up, finishing the night with four solo tackles and a sack for a seven yard loss.

Linebackers Justin Rogers and Oscar Lua were active and combined for 11 total tackles (four and five solo tackles respectively) and one sack (Rogers).

Willie Andrews continues to progress, and late round draft pick Mike Richardson went step for step with one of Tampa's wide outs, almost making a highlight reel interception on a jump ball put up along the left sideline by Bucs back-up QB Bruce Gradkowski.

Just a guess at this point - but I would say keep an eye on Rogers, Lua, and Richardson.

Conspicuously absent

My apologies for my recent absence. There were some recent electrical storms that have wreaked havoc with my Internet access here in Western Maryland. I am, however, back now...so, on with the NFC West (finally)...

Arizona Cardinals - Can Matt Leinart and the Cardinals offense progress and build off of last year? Last season Leinart showed flashes of why he was a top draft pick as a QB, often making something out of nothing behind a spotty offensive line. The team has the skill position players in place to make the jump to contender in a weak division, but has historically had issues at quarterback and along the line. If Leinart can stay upright and get the ball out to his big wide-outs, then they will have a chance every week.

St. Louis Rams - Can the front office get Marc Bulger in to camp in time to build off of last year's success? Last season, after several down seasons, the Rams challenged the Seahawks for the division title. Inconsistency plagued the team as they sometimes beat the tough opponents and struggled against the weak ones. However, the offense - led by Bulger and running back Stephen Jackson - clicked down the stretch. If either of those two cogs is not ready for the opener, then the Rams are starting the season with a handicap.

San Francisco 49ers - Can the revamped receiving corps have success? San Francisco made a quantum leap forward last year, showing life on offense. In order to bolster the roster, the 49ers brain-trust went out and got Darrell Jackson from the Seahawks and Ashley Lelie from Atlanta to revamp their receiver corps. If Jackson is healthy, he could still be a legitimate number one receiver. However, it should be a cause for concern that the Seahawks were willing to deal him within the division, and Lelie has been a bust his entire career. A receiver with number one sort of talent, Lelie has only occasionally shown the ability to live up to his potential.

Seattle Seahawks - Can they hold off the rest of the division? Last season the 9-7 Seahawks back-slid, barely finishing ahead of the 8-8 Rams and the 7-9 49ers one season after walking away with the division and going to the Super Bowl. There are a lot of ifs that need to be answered with this team in determining whether or not they can hold off the rest of the division - if Deion Branch can step it up and be a legitimate number one receiver in a system other than the Patriots (most scouts have him as the second receiver), if the revamped secondary can gel in training camp, if Shaun Alexander can fend off time and return to the form he had two seasons ago while avoiding injury. These are some of the questions the team needs to answer - and if the answers to any of these are "no," then it could be a very tough season for the team from the Emerald City.