The Dog Days and the NFC North

In recent years this series - Sawx-Yanks - in the dog days of August has meant a lot to the complexion of the American League East. It has played a part in determining the East Champ, and even the Wild Card contender. It's where the wheels came off of the Sawx in 2005.

It's where the Sawx gave Yankees hope for the division last season.

This year it's less about the division than who ends up out of the playoffs. Nothing is written in stone, and both the Yankees and Sox have looked a little cooked lately, while the Twins have surged recently. Granted, the Sox were looking a little cooked at the beginning of
September last season, dropping five of their six to the Yanks in August and September and look what happened there.

But let's face a few basic facts - a month ago the Sox were by themselves as the wild card entrant if the season ended then. Now the margin of the Twins is smaller than the space between the Sox and the division leading Rays - who have added games between the two teams in the last month. The Sox still have a chance to pull it off - even the division - but the team has to play better ball of the next month than they have for the last month.

Needless to say, it's gonna be one hairy September in the Hub of the Universe.

And onto the gridiron...

The NFC North - Something feels weird about this division. It's filled with teams that all have issues, fatal flaws if you will, in regards to their aspirations to a Lombardi Trophy. All have an issue at a key position - quarterback - and some have issues that go deeper.

4. Lions - They may actually have the best quarterback in the division in John Kitna (and this might be the first time in Kitna's career that has EVER been written about him), and based on last year, Rod Marinelly might finally have this team heading in the right direction. But let's face two basic facts: The Ford Family ownership of this team has been an unending nightmare, and Matt Millen's tenure as a GM has been record shattering, and not in a good way. No team in the history of the NFL has had as many consecutive seasons with double-digits in the loss column, and I have a hard time buying that he's learned to be better than any of his in-division counterparts. If the Lions finish ahead of another team in the division, I'm guessing it has less to do with the Lions elevating their level of play than it does with the other team spitting the bit. I have a hard time seeing this team improving on their 7-9 season of last year, and considering their schedule gets considerably tougher after the first three games of their season, I wouldn't be surprised if they regressed to four wins.

3. Bears - The carousel goes around and around at the signal caller position, and it looks like Kyle Orton is getting the call again. You'd think someone there could pick a pro-caliber QB, but alas, no. But the real killer for this team is that the D is not what it once was, and lacks depth. I'm guessing in the vicinity of 8-8.

2. Vikings - Despite the deficiencies of Tavaris Jackson, I think this team will compete for the division, and may even win the division, but that's going to depend on three things. One - Jackson has to keep from making the mistake that kills the team. Two - the health of Adrian Peterson. The young running back racked up some hard miles in his rookie year, and breaking down is a strong possibility, and if that happens this team will plummet in the standings. His ability to pound the ball last season made the Minnesota defense better by keeping them rested. If he's not touching the ball, they pay. Three - the health of Aaron Rogers.

1. Packers - The Packers won 13 games last season and were a few plays away from the Super Bowl. Their only major change was at quarterback. Rogers has been in the system for three seasons already, has been solid in preseason, and was better against the Cowboys last season than Brett Favre. If Rogers stays healthy, the Pack wins the division, albeit not by much. Last year they were five games better than the 8-8 Vikings. This season they're maybe two games better, and maybe not even that.

Recovering

So, as I sit in Western Maryland recovering from a physical game against the North Carolina Tigers (we won 106 - 46 to extend our streak to somewhere in the neighborhood of 23 - 1 against USAFL opposition since late in the 2006 season), I am pondering a handful of sports questions, thoughts, and observations...

Starting with the near and dear to my heart...

Manny Ramirez needs to shut-up and play. Like Brett Favre, he's not the general manager, he doesn't make the decisions regarding the team options on the contract. And let's face it, as much of an offensive force Manny has been, his age has begun to show - Sure, he's on pace for 100 RBI's, and that's up from last season's 88, and will probably just about match the 102 he had from two seasons ago, but will be down from his back to back 130 and 144 seasons before that. It's below his career average of 107, though not significantly, although it would be roughly 14 RBI's below his average in a Boston uniform (not including this season).

He's doing that in a line-up that includes Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury who have combined for 199 runs scored. He's doing that in a line-up where he's protected by the likes of Pedroia, Youk, and David Ortiz hitting ahead of him and Mike Lowell (63 RBI's, 13 HR's) and JD Drew (58 RBI's, 19 HR's) hitting behind him. In his career, he's never had to be the guy to carry a team, he's always had protection around him.

How many other places will he go that the line-up forces teams to pitch to him? The Rangers? The Cubs? How many places are already taking themselves out of the running, like the Mets, that just don't want to deal with Manny being Manny?

His agent thinks he can get him four years, $100 million at the end of the year. I think the agent is dreaming if he thinks that he's going to get that much for a slugger that will be 37 at the beginning of May, who has been complaining about his knees for the last couple of years. Sixty to $85 million, I could see, but only the foolish will be investing $25 million in a 41-year old slugger.

Speaking of Favre - boy have I gotten tired of him.

Someone needs to explain the following - he's not the coach. He's not the GM, and the GM's job isn't to try to make sure he gets one last big hurrah at the expense of the future of the team. Ted Thompson's job is to secure the future of the team. Thompson's job is to put the tools around his quarterback to give him the best chance to win.

I seem to remember that in a playoff game in Lambeau last year he had trouble getting the ball to his receivers - even when he had time. He overthrew balls, under threw receivers, and looked uncomfortable - like he didn't want to be there.

Now the Legend wants me to believe that his GM isn't trustworthy because the man failed to out-offer the Patriots for Randy Moss, because he let aging linemen go to put younger, more athletic linemen in front of his aging star, because, while his moves resulted in the team coming within a game of the Super Bowl, that they weren't right because Favre didn't like them.

He needs to stop trying to play this in the court of public opinion. He's losing, and losing bad. Especially coming from a guy that expects everyone to believe that he was just calling the Vikings coaching staff to shoot the breeze. Yeah. Right. And I'm the current owner of the Major League Baseball record for home runs in a single season.

Finally, a few quick thoughts on marketing language - I love marketing language. In an effort to make used cars more marketable, they're no longer "used," they're "certified pre-owned." It's no longer an "impotence" drug, no, now they're for "male enhancement." My personal favorite - you go high end with a "pawn shop," and you have an "antique store."

I bring this up because professional sports leagues are masters at this. They're absolutely brilliant. Consider - the NFL gets television coverage and people paying money for scrimmages. Yeah, they call them pre-season games, but they're scrimmages. But, for my money, the best one out there belongs to baseball.

Baseball, while lagging behind the NFL in ratings, is still the master at repackaging. Consider this - they have managed to convince their fans to shell out hundreds of dollars for even the cheap seats during batting practice the night before the All-Star Game simply by calling it "The Home Run Derby."

That's just admirably brilliant.

Reaping what they sow

The house of cards that Roger Clemens has built is crumbling. Quickly.

Consider - Sure, his accuser is about as shady as back alley with a roof covering, but Brian McNamee has had his story corroborated by multiple sources, including by Clemens' buddy Andy Pettitte, fellow steroid distributor Kirk Radomski, and even to some extent, by Clemens himself (way to throw your wife under the bus, Roger).

Clemens has a baby sitter who appears to have been tampered with and a Jose Canseco testimony that appears to have been contradicted by photographic evidence.

To put it plainly, if you're going to do something illegal, don't leave a paper trail. It will come back to feast on your ass like a rabid hyena on a slow, fat kid.

As far as one's arrogance leading to digging a hole for one's self, Brett Favre is quickly making himself into the second coming of Terrell Owens.

Evidently he spoke in vague generalities while accusing Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy of not being honest with him. The Packers GM and Coach responded with specifics as to repeatedly asking Favre back.

As near as I can tell, Favre was upset that Thompson a) failed to re-sign two of Favre long-time protectors along the line, opting instead for youth along the O-line, b) failed to land Randy Moss in a trade, refusing to mortgage the future of the team in so doing. In essence, Favre doesn't trust Thompson because Thompson wants Favre to be a quarterback, and not do his general managing job for him. Go figure.

Now, Favre is "tempted to call their bluff," but is unwilling to file the paperwork for reinstatement until it wouldn't cost him any money to avoid mandatory minicamps and to just come into training camp - where he could, effectively, be disruptive.

The funny thing, in his effort to create public support, all he has done is alienate even the majority of Packer fans. A recent show of support for the NFL's least wanted man outside of Lambeau drew fewer than 200 fans.

And, often times, those who are supporting Favre are not only blinded by their hero-worship, but evidently aren't as knowledgeable as people like to say Packers fans are supposed to be - as demonstrated by this recent letter to Mike Silver -

“Your article about making the hard call in Green Bay shows why you write for a living and are not in football operations. If Green Bay’s GM dumps a proven Pro Bowl QB over QB who hasn’t proven anything he won’t be a GM for long.”

Ken Biddle
Philadelphia

Let's see -

Daryle Lamonica was replaced by Kenny Stabler, and he was replaced by Jim Plunkett. Nobody was complaining about Al Davis' personnel moves in the early 1980's

Joe Montana was traded in favor of Steve Young who wasn't showing a whole lot in Tampa. Sure, the 49ers brain-trust caught some flak when they traded Montana, but three Super Bowl trophies later, no San Fran fan is saying that it was the wrong move.

And, of course, within the last decade the Patriots dropped pro-bowler Drew Bledsoe for an unproven sixth round draft pick. Three Super Bowls (two trophies later), none of the Pats fans are calling for Scott Pioli's head.

A Tale of Two Cities

It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to, than I have ever known.

Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities
English novelist (1812 - 1870)

Brett Favre's retirement is about a number of things - it's about one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the history of football hanging up the cleats; it's about the team's failure to land Randy Moss for the second straight year (no matter what might be said publicly to the contrary); it's about a change to the face of a franchise; and, mostly, it's about two cities and the divergent paths they took a little more than a decade and a half ago.

This is about Atlanta and Green Bay.

This is about the 1991 second round pick that became one of the most recognizable and most accomplished passers in the NFL over the better part of the last two decades. He won a Super Bowl, appeared in another, and appeared in 22 playoff games overall. Favre was traded by Atlanta to Green Bay between the '91 and '92 seasons for a first round pick.

With that pick the Atlanta Falcons picked running back Tony Smith. Smith played in 33 games over three seasons with six starts. He was primarily used as a kick and punt returner. His combined yardage for those 33 games - 2,267. That's 68 yards and a little more than two feet per game, almost all on special teams. He averaged fewer than ten yards per game as a tailback.

He had three total touchdowns. One for every eleven games in which he appeared.

Since the trade the Falcons have had eight different quarterbacks lead the team in passing, and at least sixteen different QB's have started at least one game for the team since Favre first started for the Pack in the third game of the 1992 season.

Favre has been great, albeit flawed. While he holds the NFL record for touchdown passes, he also holds the record for interceptions. Most fan bases would take that, I think.

He had his issues with pain killer addiction, but owned up to it in a way that is rare with professional athletes.

Through it all, Favre has had a Hall of Fame career.

There's no guaranteeing that Favre would have gone on to the career he has had would he have remained in Atlanta. I think it's unlikely. However, since Favre took over the starting reigns in Green Bay here are some basic facts about the two teams -

According to ESPN, Green Bay has the best record in the NFL since Favre joined the team. Their record with Favre as the starter - 160 -94. The Falcons during the same time period - 111-142-1.

For the better part of 17 years the gunslinger from Mississippi was the face of the franchise in the Frozen Tundra.

He is likable, and amiable in interviews, coming across with an "aw shucks" country charm that has allowed him to get free passes from the press and football announcers for his questionable decisions on the field. But his easy charm and the way he wears his emotions on his sleeve - shaving his head in support of his wife's battle with breast cancer, talking candidly about the passing of his father during the post game of a contest with the Raiders - made him seem approachable to the fans, not just of the Packers, but of football.

Teams in all sports look for that Face of the Franchise. Someone marketable, someone with star power and ability. In Favre's time, the Patriots had Drew Bledsoe who pulled the team out of the mud and put them on his back for the better part of the 1990's, and then Tom Brady, and to a lesser extent, Tedy Bruschi. The Red Sox have David Ortiz (would Big Papi have become Big Papi had he remained with the Twins?). The Yankees have Derek Jeter. The list goes on - Steve Nash, Peyton Manning, Jason Taylor. You say the names and people automatically think of the teams.

Sometimes the face is indicative of the team. Isiah Thomas was once a face with which teams wanted to be associated with. Same for Matt Millen. And even Michael Vick. All of that is less true now.

The franchise that traded Favre had no true Face of the Franchise until they committed to Vick in 2004. Thirteen seasons after their back-up left to become the face of another, Atlanta finally found their face. Now the face of their franchise is a convicted felon. That face followed them through a season without Vick appearing in a single game. It will likely follow them through one more season, until they find someone charming and marketable and can take the franchise to the next level...someone like a backup quarterback they once had.

Much ado...and at least one answer

There's a lot being made of the Giants 9 game road winning streak going into Green Bay, and not to take anything away from the Giants who have been road warriors this season, but the Packers haven't been slouches at home, going into this game with an 8-1 record at Lambeau this season.

How about this statistic for home field advantage - the Patriots have won 13 straight at the Razor, last losing to the Jets over 14 months ago. Also, the team is undefeated in Championship games at Foxborough, and undefeated in post-season games held in Massachusetts in sub-freezing temperatures since Bill Belichick took over the team.

The hosting teams have four Super Bowl rings in five appearances and are 6-2 in this round of the playoffs, the second loss was by Tom Brady in last season's match-up in Indianapolis. Brady is 3-0 in championship games held in Foxborough.

As for the answer...

Teresa posed a question to me - has the AFC East hosted the best and worst teams in the NFL before this season? Yes. The first time the East held the dubious distinction was in 1984 when the Dolphins and a rookie Dan Marino led the league with a 14-2 record while the Buffalo Bills brought up the rear with a 2-14 record.

All of this has inspired the final note...a note on futility -

The Arizona Cardinals, the longest active franchise in professional football - actually predating the league currently known NFL - hasn't won a championship since 1947. The team was founded in 1899 under the name the Morgan Athletic Club on the South Side of Chicago. It later became the Racine (Street) Cardinals, then the Chicago Cardinals, St. Louis Cardinals, Phoenix Cardinals, and finally the Arizona Cardinals.

In 108 years this team has won two championships, an average of one every 54 years. Their last title was 20 years before the Super Bowl.

This team did Chicagoans a favor by moving from the Windy City.

The teams that haven't even made it to the Super Bowl include the Browns, Cardinals, Lions, Saints, Texans and Jaguars. As far as opportunities - All but the Texans and Jaguars were in existence at the beginning of the Super Bowl Era (technically the Saints for the second). The Texans and the Jags have been around for, combined, less than 20 Super Bowls (the Jags first year was 1995, the Texans 2002).

Then there are those who have made it to the big game only to lose - Eagles, Bills, Vikings, Oilers/Titans, Bengals, Chargers, Falcons, Panthers, and Seahawks. Unless the Chargers can get past the Patriots tomorrow, it means that the winner of this Super Bowl will come from the pool of 16 winners of the 41 previous Super Bowls.

Of the three active teams in the playoffs that previously won, all are multiple winners - the Giants with two (1986, 1990), the Packers with three (1967, 1968, 1996), and the Patriots with three (2001, 2003, 2004). Other multiple winners include with five each - the Steelers, 49ers, and Cowboys; with three are the Raiders and Redskins; and with two are the Dolphins, Colts, and Broncos.

Of the 41 Super Bowls already played, 11 teams account for 35 of the titles - if you're wondering why the math is off, I think it's because of the whole affair between the Cleveland and Baltimore with the Browns' move and subsequent name change, however, I might just be missing a team in there.

Either way, it's likely that a franchise that has already won a Super Bowl will be getting fitted for another set of rings come February.

Weekend observations

Mister Freeze...

I love games played in the snow. I loved 'em when I played in high school. I loved 'em when I coached. I love watching them.

I have an appreciation for the difficulty that's added by playing on a slick, hard field - when the cold hurts your hands, and the idea of hitting one's opponent can become distasteful, because it inflicts as much pain on the tackler as the tackled. The game becomes a contest of wills.

That game in Green Bay was a thing of beauty. After a shaky start, putting the ball on the ground twice, undrafted free-agent running back Ryan Grant imposed his will on the Seahawks, accounting for close to half of the Pack's 408 total yards (201).

As much as Brett Favre's arm got the Pack to the game, Grant's legs were responsible for getting them through the game.

Punched in the Mouth

The Jaguars were the team that was supposed to give the Patriots fits.

Their top ranked (AFC) running game was supposed to keep Tom Brady on the sideline, and take advantage of the Patriots AARP members manning the linebacker position. They were supposed to stuff the run, take away Randy Moss and make the Patriots win with Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, and Ben Watson.

Instead, Laurence Maroney became the Beast from the AFC East, rushing for more yardage (122) than the entire Jaguars team combined (80) and more combined yardage (162) than the Chargers' one-two punch of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor combined (129).

Even as a Pats fan, had anyone told me that Maroney would have almost as much yardage on the ground as the Jags backs had combined, I would have scoffed. Hell...combined yardage for the Pats runners v. the Jags? 207 to 129. And that was the place on offense that the Jags were supposed to have a distinct advantage.

I guess as the saying goes, on any given Sunday...

Upset Sunday...

I'm not going to dwell on the early game. The Colts played poorly on defense, struggling to beat a Chargers team that was lining up players by the end of the game that make one think more of a fourth pre-season game than of a playoff game. And the Chargers won in spite of some mind-numbingly, bone-jarringly stupid play calling on offense.

Even with the win, that game gave me no confidence that Norv Turner can bring this team a championship. The only reason they got out of Indy alive is that the Chargers defense was playing out of their collective minds down the stretch.

Texas Toast (or, The Mouths that Roared)...

Does anyone out there remember the "I love you, man," Bud Light commercials? Is it just me, or is that how Terrell Owens seemed in his postgame press conference? I can just hear Tony Romo right now..."No TO, you can't have any of my Bud Light...now go eat your popcorn."

Sincerity is not that man's forte. His defense of Tony Romo, while accurate (the Giants in the second half were beating the daylights out of Romo because the line just couldn't stop wave after wave of blue-jersied defenders), just came off as disingenuous.

And of course, the Dallas receivers just can't put their money where their exceedingly large mouths are...

Take, for instance, this tidbit from the postgame of their October match-up with the Patriots -

"If they make it to Arizona, we will see them again. Seriously, I'm not backing down from that statement," receiver Patrick Crayton said Monday, a day after a 48-27 loss to the Patriots.
Terrell Owens wasn't in the locker room Monday, but said after the game, "We'll see them down the road."

I guess they'll be in the stands?

Or how about TO's line that he'd be playing at a high level in this past Sunday's game during his interview with Deion Sanders? Four catches for 49 yards and one touchdown. During the regular season he averaged 5.4 catches per game for 90.3 yards per game. I wonder how TO defines a "high level."

Texas Toast, part II...

Well, it already appears that Roger Clemens and his handlers are backing off providing any actual denials under oath. According to reports, the Rocket and his legal team won't commit to providing congress with a deposition before the hearing, with his lawyer, Rusty Hardin, claiming that it could interfere with civil case.

The implication here is that testifying under oath to congress wouldn't, or at least, that's what Hardin would have you believe. Hardin from the AP report -

"There has been absolutely no change in Roger's willingness and indeed desire to testify under oath before Congress in a public hearing at a date of the Oversight Committee's choosing," Hardin said in a statement. "Any suggestion that he or we are having any second thoughts about that is absolutely false. All other pre-appearance issues and scheduling we will discuss privately with the committee and do not think it is appropriate to discuss those matters publicly."

A deposition is testimony, under oath (which is why it's admissible as evidence in a court case). As such, what's the issue?

According to legal experts on ESPN, and cited in other reports, a deposition would give the Committee the opportunity to investigate Clemens' defense, and to prepare specific questions in order to discredit Clemens' defense, or to formulate specific questions to ask McNamee, who appears willing to tell the Committee everything.

Hardin can spin this anyway he likes, but it's just one more chink in Clemens' so called defense.

You are what you are

Those were the words of Bill Parcells.

He was once asked about his team. The gist of the question was along the lines of "do you think your team is better than its record," or "do you feel like you got away with one?" Or some other such inquiry. His message - if your team is 8-8, then you're 8-8...no matter how much better you might try to make others believe you are.

The Chargers are competing for the AFC Championship.

The Patriots are 17-0 (that number sound familiar '72 'Phins?...'Cause in every math class I was ever in, 19 is greater than 17...get over it).

The Colts are officially no longer the defending Super Bowl champs - the defense of their title officially ended on the carpet at the RCA Dome, dropping Peyton Manning's home playoff record to an uninspired 4-3.

The Seahawks are not a winter weather team. The Packers are.

Soon, I'll know what the Cowboys are and what the Giants are.

As the Divisional Round is just hours from wrapping up, with match-ups getting set for next week's Conference Championship, I, as a Patriots fan, am curious to see how the injury report is going to read for the Chargers. A lot of bodies were left on the field, as the Chargers closed out the Colts without Philip Rivers or LaDanian Tomlinson lining up.

More amazing? That the Chargers won in spite of some poor offensive calls by Norv Turner. With approximately a minute and a half left on the clock, third and five, with the Colts D stacked against the run, Turner called for a run in the middle. Colts got the ball back with 90 seconds on the clock and one timeout.

Fortunately, it didn't come back to haunt the Chargers as San Diego's defense came up big - hitting Reggie Wayne so hard on third and long that it forced the Colts to burn the timeout due to an injury stoppage.

Random thoughts on tomorrow's game

I'm guessing that if Brady throws at least three touchdown passes tomorrow that the first two will go to Randy Moss so that he can break the record of 22 in a season, currently held by Jerry Rice. The third I would expect will end up in the hands of Troy Brown, so that the team can break a record it currently shares with the 1987 Rams and the 2000 Broncos - 21 different players in a Pats uniform have scored a touchdown this season. If Brown scores one tomorrow, that will make 22. Other candidates include Ryan O'Callaghan who sometimes lines up at tight end down by the goal line, or Junior Seau who lines up at fullback in the same set.

A note, in fairness to Jerry Rice - his 22 touchdowns came in a strike shortened season, over the course of 12 games. All told, that's a 29 touchdown pace. As good as Moss has been this season, he hasn't been that good, and Rice's pace of 1.8 touchdowns per game needs to somehow remain in the record books. If Moss finishes the season with 23, that's 1.4 per game.

The weather tomorrow in the Meadowlands, according to the most recent report, is for low winds, and low 50's during the day. No bad weather on the docket. That clearly favors the Patriots who have the better quarterback and receivers by far of the two teams.

The Giants do have the kind of physical defense that has given the Patriots fits of late. On the flip side, the Giants have lost to each of the top offenses that they have faced - by an average of 10.5 points to Dallas (10, and 11 points respectively), and by 22 to the Packers. Neither of those team's offenses are as potent as the Patriots'.

What are the chances that the Pats pound the ball on the ground a lot, just to see if they can do it against a better defense than either of the last two that the team has faced in the Dolphins and Jets? 50-50? I think the Giants defense is going to come out hard after the pass because of the records, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Patriots come out running, if for no other reason than to slow the Giants vaunted pass rush.

Pretender or Contender - NFC style

Who are the legit heirs to the NFC throne? Will we see the Cheeseheads melting in the Arizona sun, or will the West be Won by the Gauchos in Dallas? What are the chances that a Jolly Roger will fly high over the Arizona desert, or that an ocean bird from the Pacific Northwest will migrate to the Cardinals' nest?

One thing to note - with teams like the Seahawks struggling to separate themselves from the lesser teams in the weak Western division until the last couple of weeks, it's hard to completely buy into some of the NFC teams as legitimate contenders.

The contenders...

Dallas Cowboys (13-2) - Quite simply, they are the best the NFC has to offer. The number one NFC offense (second only in the league to the Patriots), and the sixth best NFC defense in regards to opponents scoring (12th overall). If a team can take advantage of the Dallas D, the team can be had. Through their first eight games the team's margin of victory was an average of 15.8 points per game with only three of those victories coming by a margin of less than 17 points. Since the halfway point that average margin of victory has dropped to 8.8 points per game with only one contest in which the margin was larger than 17 points.

That said, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Big D, and it's going to be a tough, albeit not impossible, task to knock the Cowboys off in their own backyard.

Green Bay Packers (12-3) - The game against the Bears was not exactly reassuring, but I'm willing to give a team as young as the Packers a mulligan. The big problem for Green Bay is that they will have to go through Dallas to get to Arizona, and I'm not convinced that Brett Favre's history in that stadium isn't in his head.

In their earlier match-up this season Favre went away from the game-plan that had the Pack undefeated going into Dallas. If he isn't trying to force the deep ball on every play and hit the homerun, so to speak, then I give the Packers a fair chance at the upset. If Favre makes the unforced errors of the first match-up, then Cheesehead Nation will not be invading the Desert come January.

Washington Redskins (8-7) - I know that Washington is not in yet, but they control their own fate and are playing their best football of the season. I feel uncertain about putting this team here, but the fact is that they are playing smart, disciplined football right now - and they are playing with a purpose - and that makes them dangerous.

Also, they play in what appears to be the toughest division in the NFC, playing against playoff teams and hopefuls in Dallas, New England, New York (Giants), Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. Half of the 'Skins' games have been against opponents that either are headed to, or still have a chance to head to the playoffs. Sure, they're 2-5 against these teams (with the final match-up against Dallas on the docket for this weekend), but take away the drubbing at the hands of the Patriots, an the average margin of victory for those opponents in those four games is 4.25 points per game. In the last two games, both victories over teams contending for spots (the Giants, and the Vikings), the margin was 11.5 points per game - a 15.75 point swing in favor of the Redskins.

They have a long hard road ahead - assuming they can close out with a win over Dallas and seal their playoff fate, they will have to play three games on the road no matter what due to being the sixth and final entry from the NFC.

The pretenders -

New York Giants (10-5) - They pulled off an emotional victory over a mediocre Buffalo Bills team last week and are on the road next week at Tampa Bay. A lot will be made about Tampa's stifling defense - currently tied for the top rank with the Patriots giving up only 15.9 points per game. I think that, healthy, New York can get by Tampa - and even unhealthy I give them a chance.

New York's biggest liability is Eli Manning - not only do they not know what quarterback they're going to get from game to game, sometimes his Jeckyll and Hyde routine goes quarter to quarter. While I think they might squeak by with one road win, I'm not convinced that a team that hasn't strung together more than two wins in a row for half a season will be able to come away with three straight on the road to get to the big game.

Seattle Seahawks (10-5) - After their opener against Tampa (whom they beat), The only post-season contenders this team has played have been Pittsburgh and Cleveland. They lost to both, to go with losses to Arizona, Carolina, and New Orleans.

Consider the following as the Seahawks will likely be hosting the Redskins next week - Technically, this team has not beaten a single team with a winning record (the Bucs were 0-0 at the time of their game7-8 Eagles. I have no reason to believe that the Seahawks are going to start defeating opponents with winning records now.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6) - People are trying to dub this as the sleeper team. They're wrong.

This is the so called sleeper team because of their sterling defense, tied with the Patriots for first in the league, giving up on 15.9 points per game. Let's take a closer look at how that defense has done against quality offenses - the Bucs have faced four potential playoff teams and have gone 1-3 against them, losing to the 11th ranked Seahawks offense, the 3rd ranked Colts O, and the 5th ranked Jaguars offense, winning only against the 19th ranked Redskins.

As a matter of fact, the only offenses in the top 20 that the Bucs beat have been the 10th ranked Saints, 9th ranked Cardinals, and the 19th ranked Skins. The Saints and Cards are both in the bottom third of the league in defense. Otherwise, six of the nine wins that the defense forged its reputation against have had an average offensive ranking of around 26th overall - or against teams averaging only about 16 points per game (this includes two games against the 31st ranked scoring team in the league).

By contrast, the Patriots have beaten four division winners (Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Steelers), and two (likely) wild card entrants (Browns, Redskins). Their wins have come over teams whose offenses rank 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, 13th, 17th and 19th. The average offensive ranking of the Patriots opponents is about 18th overall, or an average of around 20.7 points per game.

The point here is that the Bucs are holding opponents to 0.1 points per game below their aggregate average against the rest of the league, so in theory a team that averages 27 points per game is probably still going to score about 27 points against the them. Not a great statistic for a team trying to make headway into the post season.

The proverbial monkey wrench...

Minnesota Vikings (8-7) - The Vikings are in if they win and the 'Skins lose. This is not a team I can see going deep into the playoffs. They are a team that can screw up someone else shot at the title. They are physical and tough against the run, and have bruising runners who get into the second level and punish an opponents secondary.

If nothing else, they can make a healthy team unhealthy for their next opponent.

Swan song a mostly forgettable tune

The longest tenured Patriot was finally getting in on the act.

Troy Brown would be active.

A career special teams demon, he would be returning punts.

He returned six for 55 yards. A respectable 9.2 yard average, with a physical 28 yard return that brought the ball back to mid-field.

Unfortunately he also had the one that clanged off his face-mask giving the Dolphins the ball back after a sterling series by the defense.

His day fielding punt returns was like the offense's day in microcosm - Laurence Maroney battered the Dolphins for over 150 yards on 14 carries, while Jabar Gaffney hauled in five passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. The stars, on the other hand, failed to shine - Brady while good, still tossed two picks, and both Wes Welker and Randy Moss dropped passes that would have kept drives alive in the second half when the offense put a big donut on the scoreboard. It was the first time all season the Patriots offense was shut out in a half.

Your prolific offense getting shut down in the second half by the Miami Dolphins is not going to put any sort of fear into the likes of the Colts, or the Jaguars come football's second season.

On the positive side of the ledger -

Wes Welker is one touchdown away from breaking the Patriots' record for receptions in a season, currently held by Brown with 101.

Stephen Gostkowski set a new league record for extra points in a season.

The Patriots broke the record for touchdowns scored in a season with 71 and counting. The previous record was held by the 1984 Dolphins.

The Pats are six points shy of tying the mark for most points by a team.

Randy Moss needs two touchdown receptions to break Jerry Rice's record of 22, and Tom Brady needs two TD passes to break Peyton Manning's record of 49.

The team tied their own record of 18 straight regular season wins, and are poised to break that with a win next week.

And with a current passer rating of 119.7, Manning's season record of 121.1 for a season is within reach (although if Brady makes decisions against the Giants like he did against the Jets and Dolphins, it just isn't happening).

Not to be lost in all this is the fact that the Patriots dominated an opponent on the ground for the second straight week, ringing up 196 yards on 25 carries - a 7.8 yard per carry clip that even against the deficient Dolphins is a good sign heading into the post season. The supposedly run-deficient Patriots entered the game with the 12th ranked running game in the league - not bad for the noted weakness of the offense.

Other thoughts...

Tom Coughlin can't be overwhelmed by the Giants mistake filled win over the Buffalo Bills. His playoff bound team got even more dinged up as it did everything it could in the first half to hand Buffalo this game on a silver platter. If New York plays like this against just about any other playoff contender in the post season they will be one and done.

The Browns had a chance to push Pittsburgh's back against the wall and possibly win the division with a win over the sad-sack Cincinnati Bengals and couldn't seal the deal. Ditto for Green Bay in regards to having a chance at forcing the Cowboys to have to travel to the Frozen Tundra for the conference championship game. Instead Brett Favre and the Pack spit the bit, losing 35-7 to a Bears team that is a shadow of its former self.

Minnesota, also with a chance to seal their place in the playoffs also blew it, dropping a game to the Redskins 32-21. The only teams that came up big in keeping their playoff hopes alive were the Titans who squeaked by the Jets to even their record with the 9-6 Browns (Cleveland holds the tie breakers), and the Redskins who have evened their record with Minnesota at 8-7, but now hold the tie-breaker by virtue of this weekend's victory over the Vikings.

So I was wrong - the Lions will go 7-9, not 6-10. I gotta find me some employers like the Ford family. Evidently anything short of blowing the company to Kingdom Come won't get you fired.

One last thought -

Does anyone out there suppose Miami fans watched that game and thought, "why can't the Dolphins get players like Heath Evans, Wes Welker, Kyle Eckel, and Junior Seau...wait...um...nevermind. Dumbass GM."

Hard hits

Last night the Sox absolutely pasted the Indians 12-2. The offense? JD Drew knocked in five runs on a night when Manny and Big Papi struggled a little at the plate. Drew! In some quarters of Red Sox Nation that might be considered the fourth sign of the impending Apocalypse. Of course none of those people care because the Sox are one game closer to the World Series.

The Indians have now gone from up 3-1, to being on the brink. Yes the teams are tied 3-3, but all the pressure is on the Tribe now. After winning three straight by a combined score of 24-11, they have dropped two straight potential clinchers by a combined 19-3.

Overall, the Indians are 12 for 64 (.188) in those two games. They were 33 of 112 (.295) in their three wins. Somebody is wilting as the heat is getting turned up.

On top of all that, the Indians are about to get slammed with a major locker-room distraction.

Now I have to wonder about the Indians' chances.

Tonight is gonna be fun.


Maxwell's Silver Hammer...

A little piece of living football history was lost yesterday.

Former Green Bay Packer wide receiver Max McGee fell off the roof of his house while prepping it for the Minnesota winter. According to reports, efforts to revive McGee by Police who reported to the scene of the accident at 5:20 PM were unsuccessful.

McGee was the unlikely hero of Super Bowl I. Hung-over from the night before (he didn't think he was going to see the field), McGee caught the first touchdown in Super Bowl history after entering the game for Packers receiver Boyd Dowler who left the game with a shoulder injury. He went on to rack up 47 more yards in the big game (138), than he had for the entire 1967 season (91).

Rest well, big guy.

It's elementary, Watson...


The pundits are calling today's Patriots game a cake-walk, a gimme. They're already pencilling in the W. Do I think they're going to win? Yes. Do I think it's going to be easy? When's the last time that the Pats had an easy game in Miami?

The former Joe Robbie Stadium has been a personal house of horrors for Tom Brady (the team is 4-14 in its last 18 visits to Miami and Brady is 2-4).


Granted, Brady has not had the weapons at receiver he has this season. However, they're going into this game without Sammy Morris or Ben Watson and even with Laurence Maroney there's a fair chance that he will at least be limited due to the groin injury. This might be Kyle Eckel's chance to show the NFL he belongs. This is also going to be an opportunity for Marcellus Rivers to show the rest of the NFL that they made a mistake by letting him languish in the free-agent market.


It's supposed to be a hot and humid one in Miami today - a good day for sprinters, a good day for wide-outs.

It should be interesting.

NFL Questions: NFC North

Not too long ago the "Black and Blue" division boasted a still effective Bret Favre, a prolific offense in Minnesota, a solid Bears squad with a linebacking corps led by Brian Urlacher and Rosevelt Colvin, and...sorry to say it, a Detroit team that even then was the league punchline. Now the division boasts the NFC Champion Bears and little else.

Chicago Bears - Can Rex Grossman correct his flaws? Grossman was alternately the best quarterback or the worst quarterback in the league on any given Sunday last season, seldom ending up in between. More often than not, after a hot start, Grossman played ugly, and the Bears often won in spite of him - usually because of strong play from the defense, special teams, and the running backs. With a somewhat revamped backfield, the pressure is on Grossman to get better and be more consistent. If he shows little to no improvement, the Bears will have trouble getting back to the Super Bowl, and could have trouble making the post season.

Detroit Lions - Who has learned the bigger lesson during the GM tenure of Matt Millen - Millen or the Ford family? Did Millen finally learn how to evaluate and choose personnel, and has the Ford family figured out that this should Millen's last chance as the GM - a chance that would have been long gone had he managed any other NFL team like this? If the Lions flop again this year, look for the infighting in the Ford family to go to a new level as the son (never a fan of Millen's) makes a new and harder push for the GM's ouster.

Green Bay Packers - Can the Green Bay win with what they have right now? Other than at quarterback, this is a young team. A really young team. Last year they started three rookies on offense alone. At times they shined, at other times they got their hats handed to them, so the question becomes - did they get enough experience, or ar there going to be close to half-a-dozen players suffering through a sophomore slump? If they're not ready for prime-time, this is going to be a team going through severe growing pains.

Minnesota Vikings - Do the Vikings have a legitimate starting quarterback? No one really knows yet whether or not Tavaris Jackson is the answer - if he's not, then who is? Brooks Bollinger? Drew Henson? Tyler Thigpen? Yes, they did the right thing when they gave up on Duante Culpepper, who may be done, but they don't seem to even have a good stop-gap while trying to develop Jackson - if he's even the solution. If he's not, then we're looking at one of three teams that could easily slide to the bottom of the division.