The Dog Days and the NFC North

In recent years this series - Sawx-Yanks - in the dog days of August has meant a lot to the complexion of the American League East. It has played a part in determining the East Champ, and even the Wild Card contender. It's where the wheels came off of the Sawx in 2005.

It's where the Sawx gave Yankees hope for the division last season.

This year it's less about the division than who ends up out of the playoffs. Nothing is written in stone, and both the Yankees and Sox have looked a little cooked lately, while the Twins have surged recently. Granted, the Sox were looking a little cooked at the beginning of
September last season, dropping five of their six to the Yanks in August and September and look what happened there.

But let's face a few basic facts - a month ago the Sox were by themselves as the wild card entrant if the season ended then. Now the margin of the Twins is smaller than the space between the Sox and the division leading Rays - who have added games between the two teams in the last month. The Sox still have a chance to pull it off - even the division - but the team has to play better ball of the next month than they have for the last month.

Needless to say, it's gonna be one hairy September in the Hub of the Universe.

And onto the gridiron...

The NFC North - Something feels weird about this division. It's filled with teams that all have issues, fatal flaws if you will, in regards to their aspirations to a Lombardi Trophy. All have an issue at a key position - quarterback - and some have issues that go deeper.

4. Lions - They may actually have the best quarterback in the division in John Kitna (and this might be the first time in Kitna's career that has EVER been written about him), and based on last year, Rod Marinelly might finally have this team heading in the right direction. But let's face two basic facts: The Ford Family ownership of this team has been an unending nightmare, and Matt Millen's tenure as a GM has been record shattering, and not in a good way. No team in the history of the NFL has had as many consecutive seasons with double-digits in the loss column, and I have a hard time buying that he's learned to be better than any of his in-division counterparts. If the Lions finish ahead of another team in the division, I'm guessing it has less to do with the Lions elevating their level of play than it does with the other team spitting the bit. I have a hard time seeing this team improving on their 7-9 season of last year, and considering their schedule gets considerably tougher after the first three games of their season, I wouldn't be surprised if they regressed to four wins.

3. Bears - The carousel goes around and around at the signal caller position, and it looks like Kyle Orton is getting the call again. You'd think someone there could pick a pro-caliber QB, but alas, no. But the real killer for this team is that the D is not what it once was, and lacks depth. I'm guessing in the vicinity of 8-8.

2. Vikings - Despite the deficiencies of Tavaris Jackson, I think this team will compete for the division, and may even win the division, but that's going to depend on three things. One - Jackson has to keep from making the mistake that kills the team. Two - the health of Adrian Peterson. The young running back racked up some hard miles in his rookie year, and breaking down is a strong possibility, and if that happens this team will plummet in the standings. His ability to pound the ball last season made the Minnesota defense better by keeping them rested. If he's not touching the ball, they pay. Three - the health of Aaron Rogers.

1. Packers - The Packers won 13 games last season and were a few plays away from the Super Bowl. Their only major change was at quarterback. Rogers has been in the system for three seasons already, has been solid in preseason, and was better against the Cowboys last season than Brett Favre. If Rogers stays healthy, the Pack wins the division, albeit not by much. Last year they were five games better than the 8-8 Vikings. This season they're maybe two games better, and maybe not even that.

Pretender or Contender - NFC style

Who are the legit heirs to the NFC throne? Will we see the Cheeseheads melting in the Arizona sun, or will the West be Won by the Gauchos in Dallas? What are the chances that a Jolly Roger will fly high over the Arizona desert, or that an ocean bird from the Pacific Northwest will migrate to the Cardinals' nest?

One thing to note - with teams like the Seahawks struggling to separate themselves from the lesser teams in the weak Western division until the last couple of weeks, it's hard to completely buy into some of the NFC teams as legitimate contenders.

The contenders...

Dallas Cowboys (13-2) - Quite simply, they are the best the NFC has to offer. The number one NFC offense (second only in the league to the Patriots), and the sixth best NFC defense in regards to opponents scoring (12th overall). If a team can take advantage of the Dallas D, the team can be had. Through their first eight games the team's margin of victory was an average of 15.8 points per game with only three of those victories coming by a margin of less than 17 points. Since the halfway point that average margin of victory has dropped to 8.8 points per game with only one contest in which the margin was larger than 17 points.

That said, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Big D, and it's going to be a tough, albeit not impossible, task to knock the Cowboys off in their own backyard.

Green Bay Packers (12-3) - The game against the Bears was not exactly reassuring, but I'm willing to give a team as young as the Packers a mulligan. The big problem for Green Bay is that they will have to go through Dallas to get to Arizona, and I'm not convinced that Brett Favre's history in that stadium isn't in his head.

In their earlier match-up this season Favre went away from the game-plan that had the Pack undefeated going into Dallas. If he isn't trying to force the deep ball on every play and hit the homerun, so to speak, then I give the Packers a fair chance at the upset. If Favre makes the unforced errors of the first match-up, then Cheesehead Nation will not be invading the Desert come January.

Washington Redskins (8-7) - I know that Washington is not in yet, but they control their own fate and are playing their best football of the season. I feel uncertain about putting this team here, but the fact is that they are playing smart, disciplined football right now - and they are playing with a purpose - and that makes them dangerous.

Also, they play in what appears to be the toughest division in the NFC, playing against playoff teams and hopefuls in Dallas, New England, New York (Giants), Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. Half of the 'Skins' games have been against opponents that either are headed to, or still have a chance to head to the playoffs. Sure, they're 2-5 against these teams (with the final match-up against Dallas on the docket for this weekend), but take away the drubbing at the hands of the Patriots, an the average margin of victory for those opponents in those four games is 4.25 points per game. In the last two games, both victories over teams contending for spots (the Giants, and the Vikings), the margin was 11.5 points per game - a 15.75 point swing in favor of the Redskins.

They have a long hard road ahead - assuming they can close out with a win over Dallas and seal their playoff fate, they will have to play three games on the road no matter what due to being the sixth and final entry from the NFC.

The pretenders -

New York Giants (10-5) - They pulled off an emotional victory over a mediocre Buffalo Bills team last week and are on the road next week at Tampa Bay. A lot will be made about Tampa's stifling defense - currently tied for the top rank with the Patriots giving up only 15.9 points per game. I think that, healthy, New York can get by Tampa - and even unhealthy I give them a chance.

New York's biggest liability is Eli Manning - not only do they not know what quarterback they're going to get from game to game, sometimes his Jeckyll and Hyde routine goes quarter to quarter. While I think they might squeak by with one road win, I'm not convinced that a team that hasn't strung together more than two wins in a row for half a season will be able to come away with three straight on the road to get to the big game.

Seattle Seahawks (10-5) - After their opener against Tampa (whom they beat), The only post-season contenders this team has played have been Pittsburgh and Cleveland. They lost to both, to go with losses to Arizona, Carolina, and New Orleans.

Consider the following as the Seahawks will likely be hosting the Redskins next week - Technically, this team has not beaten a single team with a winning record (the Bucs were 0-0 at the time of their game7-8 Eagles. I have no reason to believe that the Seahawks are going to start defeating opponents with winning records now.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6) - People are trying to dub this as the sleeper team. They're wrong.

This is the so called sleeper team because of their sterling defense, tied with the Patriots for first in the league, giving up on 15.9 points per game. Let's take a closer look at how that defense has done against quality offenses - the Bucs have faced four potential playoff teams and have gone 1-3 against them, losing to the 11th ranked Seahawks offense, the 3rd ranked Colts O, and the 5th ranked Jaguars offense, winning only against the 19th ranked Redskins.

As a matter of fact, the only offenses in the top 20 that the Bucs beat have been the 10th ranked Saints, 9th ranked Cardinals, and the 19th ranked Skins. The Saints and Cards are both in the bottom third of the league in defense. Otherwise, six of the nine wins that the defense forged its reputation against have had an average offensive ranking of around 26th overall - or against teams averaging only about 16 points per game (this includes two games against the 31st ranked scoring team in the league).

By contrast, the Patriots have beaten four division winners (Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Steelers), and two (likely) wild card entrants (Browns, Redskins). Their wins have come over teams whose offenses rank 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, 13th, 17th and 19th. The average offensive ranking of the Patriots opponents is about 18th overall, or an average of around 20.7 points per game.

The point here is that the Bucs are holding opponents to 0.1 points per game below their aggregate average against the rest of the league, so in theory a team that averages 27 points per game is probably still going to score about 27 points against the them. Not a great statistic for a team trying to make headway into the post season.

The proverbial monkey wrench...

Minnesota Vikings (8-7) - The Vikings are in if they win and the 'Skins lose. This is not a team I can see going deep into the playoffs. They are a team that can screw up someone else shot at the title. They are physical and tough against the run, and have bruising runners who get into the second level and punish an opponents secondary.

If nothing else, they can make a healthy team unhealthy for their next opponent.

Swan song a mostly forgettable tune

The longest tenured Patriot was finally getting in on the act.

Troy Brown would be active.

A career special teams demon, he would be returning punts.

He returned six for 55 yards. A respectable 9.2 yard average, with a physical 28 yard return that brought the ball back to mid-field.

Unfortunately he also had the one that clanged off his face-mask giving the Dolphins the ball back after a sterling series by the defense.

His day fielding punt returns was like the offense's day in microcosm - Laurence Maroney battered the Dolphins for over 150 yards on 14 carries, while Jabar Gaffney hauled in five passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. The stars, on the other hand, failed to shine - Brady while good, still tossed two picks, and both Wes Welker and Randy Moss dropped passes that would have kept drives alive in the second half when the offense put a big donut on the scoreboard. It was the first time all season the Patriots offense was shut out in a half.

Your prolific offense getting shut down in the second half by the Miami Dolphins is not going to put any sort of fear into the likes of the Colts, or the Jaguars come football's second season.

On the positive side of the ledger -

Wes Welker is one touchdown away from breaking the Patriots' record for receptions in a season, currently held by Brown with 101.

Stephen Gostkowski set a new league record for extra points in a season.

The Patriots broke the record for touchdowns scored in a season with 71 and counting. The previous record was held by the 1984 Dolphins.

The Pats are six points shy of tying the mark for most points by a team.

Randy Moss needs two touchdown receptions to break Jerry Rice's record of 22, and Tom Brady needs two TD passes to break Peyton Manning's record of 49.

The team tied their own record of 18 straight regular season wins, and are poised to break that with a win next week.

And with a current passer rating of 119.7, Manning's season record of 121.1 for a season is within reach (although if Brady makes decisions against the Giants like he did against the Jets and Dolphins, it just isn't happening).

Not to be lost in all this is the fact that the Patriots dominated an opponent on the ground for the second straight week, ringing up 196 yards on 25 carries - a 7.8 yard per carry clip that even against the deficient Dolphins is a good sign heading into the post season. The supposedly run-deficient Patriots entered the game with the 12th ranked running game in the league - not bad for the noted weakness of the offense.

Other thoughts...

Tom Coughlin can't be overwhelmed by the Giants mistake filled win over the Buffalo Bills. His playoff bound team got even more dinged up as it did everything it could in the first half to hand Buffalo this game on a silver platter. If New York plays like this against just about any other playoff contender in the post season they will be one and done.

The Browns had a chance to push Pittsburgh's back against the wall and possibly win the division with a win over the sad-sack Cincinnati Bengals and couldn't seal the deal. Ditto for Green Bay in regards to having a chance at forcing the Cowboys to have to travel to the Frozen Tundra for the conference championship game. Instead Brett Favre and the Pack spit the bit, losing 35-7 to a Bears team that is a shadow of its former self.

Minnesota, also with a chance to seal their place in the playoffs also blew it, dropping a game to the Redskins 32-21. The only teams that came up big in keeping their playoff hopes alive were the Titans who squeaked by the Jets to even their record with the 9-6 Browns (Cleveland holds the tie breakers), and the Redskins who have evened their record with Minnesota at 8-7, but now hold the tie-breaker by virtue of this weekend's victory over the Vikings.

So I was wrong - the Lions will go 7-9, not 6-10. I gotta find me some employers like the Ford family. Evidently anything short of blowing the company to Kingdom Come won't get you fired.

One last thought -

Does anyone out there suppose Miami fans watched that game and thought, "why can't the Dolphins get players like Heath Evans, Wes Welker, Kyle Eckel, and Junior Seau...wait...um...nevermind. Dumbass GM."

The sporting gods love irony....

Consider the following in the NFL -

The following head coaches, former offensive coordinators, were hired for their offensive acumen. These men were supposed to bring the "O" to teams that already had the defense in place -

Brian Billick, Ravens - offensive coordinator of the record setting Minnesota offense that featured Chris Carter and Randy Moss at wide receiver. Currently the 24th overall offense and head coach of team that at no time under his tenure was a top 16 offense.

Scott Linehan, Rams - Former offensive coordinator of the Vikings and Dolphins is head coach of the dead last offense in the league right now.

John Gruden, Buccaneers - The former Eagles offensive coordinator is presiding over a team that's 26th overall.

Sean Payton, Saints - This former Giants offensive coordinator currently has the 27th ranked offense.

Mike Shanahan, Broncos - Shanahan was an offensive coordinator many times over between college and the pros including previous stints with Denver and Oakland. Right now his offense is ranked 25th.

Andy Reid, Eagles - The former Green Bay offensive coordinator now presides over the 21st ranked offense.

Brad Childress, Vikings - The former Eagles coordinator was the hot commodity during the off-season coaching carousel before the 2006 season. Now there are whispers that he's already on his way out in Minnesota as his team struggles along with the 22nd ranked offense.

On the other side of the coin are former defensive coordinators Eric Mangini, Marvin Lewis, Wade Phillips, and Romeo Crennel whose teams are all ranked 20th or worse in overall defense.

Mangini, Jets - Those calling for the ouster of quarterback Chad Pennington might want to take a closer look at the Jets defense, currently ranked 28th overall.

Lewis, Bengals - The architect of the championship defense in Baltimore currently presides over the second worst defense in the league. Only the Dolphins are statistically worse.

Phillips, Cowboys - The man calling the plays on the sidelines in San Diego last year is now coaching a team with the 21st defense. Why again are so many people calling this the third best team in the league right now?

Crennel, Browns - The beleaguered Crennel has a legitimate chance of bringing the long-suffering Browns to the post-season in spite of a defense that currently ranks 30th due to a soft schedule. However, if the team fails to straighten out some the defensive failings between now and then, it's going to be one and done in the playoffs.

As for why I wrote this? The way the Patriots are going this season, Josh McDaniels is going to be the hot coaching commodity come the off-season. Of course general managers will ignore what they ignored with Brian Billick - the personnel. Does this make McDaniel a bad coach with good players?

Of course not.

However, in their quest to find their man, GM's make more out of results on the field in regards to a coach's hand in player performance in order to justify their hire. Sometimes the coach just has shinier toys to play with where they were.

NFL Questions: NFC North

Not too long ago the "Black and Blue" division boasted a still effective Bret Favre, a prolific offense in Minnesota, a solid Bears squad with a linebacking corps led by Brian Urlacher and Rosevelt Colvin, and...sorry to say it, a Detroit team that even then was the league punchline. Now the division boasts the NFC Champion Bears and little else.

Chicago Bears - Can Rex Grossman correct his flaws? Grossman was alternately the best quarterback or the worst quarterback in the league on any given Sunday last season, seldom ending up in between. More often than not, after a hot start, Grossman played ugly, and the Bears often won in spite of him - usually because of strong play from the defense, special teams, and the running backs. With a somewhat revamped backfield, the pressure is on Grossman to get better and be more consistent. If he shows little to no improvement, the Bears will have trouble getting back to the Super Bowl, and could have trouble making the post season.

Detroit Lions - Who has learned the bigger lesson during the GM tenure of Matt Millen - Millen or the Ford family? Did Millen finally learn how to evaluate and choose personnel, and has the Ford family figured out that this should Millen's last chance as the GM - a chance that would have been long gone had he managed any other NFL team like this? If the Lions flop again this year, look for the infighting in the Ford family to go to a new level as the son (never a fan of Millen's) makes a new and harder push for the GM's ouster.

Green Bay Packers - Can the Green Bay win with what they have right now? Other than at quarterback, this is a young team. A really young team. Last year they started three rookies on offense alone. At times they shined, at other times they got their hats handed to them, so the question becomes - did they get enough experience, or ar there going to be close to half-a-dozen players suffering through a sophomore slump? If they're not ready for prime-time, this is going to be a team going through severe growing pains.

Minnesota Vikings - Do the Vikings have a legitimate starting quarterback? No one really knows yet whether or not Tavaris Jackson is the answer - if he's not, then who is? Brooks Bollinger? Drew Henson? Tyler Thigpen? Yes, they did the right thing when they gave up on Duante Culpepper, who may be done, but they don't seem to even have a good stop-gap while trying to develop Jackson - if he's even the solution. If he's not, then we're looking at one of three teams that could easily slide to the bottom of the division.

The NFL offseason - putting the FUN back in dysFUNction

This has been a busy offseason for the NFL - the Pacman Jones and Chris Henry suspensions, the impending Tank Johnson suspension, the Michael Vick investigation. And this is just the tip of the iceberg with other players like Green Bay linebacker Nick Barnett being arrested and a tenth Bengal in the last 14 months getting picked up.

While it seems like the NFL is a refuge for violent offenders and yes, the number is rising every year, the proportion of males given to criminal behavior in society as a whole is still larger proportionately than the number in the NFL.

No...the dysfunction that I want to talk about isn't the criminals as I have so often littered our headlines of late. I want to take a quick look at the NFL's dysfunctional franchises.

1. The Bengals - The Queen City's grid-iron entry gets the top ranking by default with close to 20 percent of the team making for a police line-up. Marvin Lewis has his work cut out as he goes about trying to change the culture of criminality in his lockerroom.

2. The Raiders - A few lucky bounces are all that kept this team from going 0-16 last season and now the players are whining that practices are too tough. Al Davis is going to be dead before this team wins again.

3. The Bears - How often does a team make it to the Super Bowl, only to have the defensive tackle go to jail, linebacker hold out, a defensive lineman throw the starting quarterback under the bus, and the ownership get involved in a protracted and ugly contract negotiation with the winningest head coach they have had since Ditka left. Anyone really think that this team is really going to make it to the Super Bowl again.

4. The Falcons - Everything that comes out of here is either done to enable Michael Vick, or make excuses for him, which I suppose amounts to the same thing. If Vick gets indicted in the dogfighting probe, and subsequently suspended, it could be the best thing to happen to this team.

5. The Vikings - It seems like whenever news comes out of the Dome in regards to the purple, it's about how Childress has already lost the locker room, what some player has done wrong, or what horrible personnel move that the team has made.

How are these guys not on the Bengals?

According to a December article in the Washington Post approximately 35 NFL players were arrested over the previous 12 months – since then there has been at least one more arrest of a Bengal, which means that the Bengals which account for 3.125 percent of the active players in the league account for approximately 25 percent of the arrests.

I would like to propose a rule change: Any player arrested for a felony offense, or on drug charges is to immediately be traded to the Bengals for a player of equal value for tracking purposes. Once there are no players left of equal value without criminal records, then the Raiders will become the new repository for said players.

The following are the folks that I can’t believe that the Bengals personnel office missed on (and these are just the ones I can remember), keeping in mind that some have been acquitted and some are still facing their day in court –

Offense -

Ruben Droughns, RB Browns – Arrested in May 2006 on one count of assault and two counts of harassment. Also acquitted of earlier drunk driving infraction.

Michael Vick, QB Falcons – Repeated links to marijuana including the recent fiasco at a Miami airport when Vick refused to surrender a water bottle to homeland security officials. Also, has a known alias (Ron Mexico) that is linked to a sex-related civil suit.

Koren Robinson, WR Vikings/Packers - Released during training camp after being arrested on charges of drunken driving and fleeing from police.

Randy Moss, WR Raiders – Past links to marijuana use and resisting arrest. Currently doing everything in his power to get traded including yell and swear at his new head coach.

Ricky Williams, RB Dolphins – Drug issues.

Defense -

Joe Cullen, Asst Coach D Line, Lions – Arrested twice during 2006. In August for an alleged indecent and obscene conduct issue at a fast food drive-in. The second at the beginning of September was for alleged drunk driving

Terrence Kiel, S Chargers - arrested by Drug Enforcement Administration agents at the team's practice facility in September on charges of transporting and possessing a controlled substance.

Steve Foley, LB Chargers - Shot and wounded by an off-duty police officer after a high speed chase for which Foley was charged with drunken driving.

Dwight Smith, S Vikings - Cited by Minneapolis police for indecent conduct in a stairwell outside a downtown nightclub with an unnamed woman.

Sean Taylor, S Redskins – As of last January was facing three counts of aggravated assault and potentially faced up to 46 years in prison. Also has had an issue with spitting on other players.

Adam “Pacman” Jones, CB Titans – Arrested for assault for spitting on a woman at a nightclub in October. Also had a previous run in for which he was charged with public intoxication and disorderly conduct.

Ricky Manning Jr, CB Bears - Arrested was arrested for assault with a deadly weapon in April.

Tank Johnson, DT Bears – Arrested several times over the last couple of season for a variety of offenses including felony gun charges, six misdemeanor counts of unlawful possession of a weapon without a Firearm Owner's Identification card and aggravated assault and resisting arrest.