The Dog Days and the NFC North

In recent years this series - Sawx-Yanks - in the dog days of August has meant a lot to the complexion of the American League East. It has played a part in determining the East Champ, and even the Wild Card contender. It's where the wheels came off of the Sawx in 2005.

It's where the Sawx gave Yankees hope for the division last season.

This year it's less about the division than who ends up out of the playoffs. Nothing is written in stone, and both the Yankees and Sox have looked a little cooked lately, while the Twins have surged recently. Granted, the Sox were looking a little cooked at the beginning of
September last season, dropping five of their six to the Yanks in August and September and look what happened there.

But let's face a few basic facts - a month ago the Sox were by themselves as the wild card entrant if the season ended then. Now the margin of the Twins is smaller than the space between the Sox and the division leading Rays - who have added games between the two teams in the last month. The Sox still have a chance to pull it off - even the division - but the team has to play better ball of the next month than they have for the last month.

Needless to say, it's gonna be one hairy September in the Hub of the Universe.

And onto the gridiron...

The NFC North - Something feels weird about this division. It's filled with teams that all have issues, fatal flaws if you will, in regards to their aspirations to a Lombardi Trophy. All have an issue at a key position - quarterback - and some have issues that go deeper.

4. Lions - They may actually have the best quarterback in the division in John Kitna (and this might be the first time in Kitna's career that has EVER been written about him), and based on last year, Rod Marinelly might finally have this team heading in the right direction. But let's face two basic facts: The Ford Family ownership of this team has been an unending nightmare, and Matt Millen's tenure as a GM has been record shattering, and not in a good way. No team in the history of the NFL has had as many consecutive seasons with double-digits in the loss column, and I have a hard time buying that he's learned to be better than any of his in-division counterparts. If the Lions finish ahead of another team in the division, I'm guessing it has less to do with the Lions elevating their level of play than it does with the other team spitting the bit. I have a hard time seeing this team improving on their 7-9 season of last year, and considering their schedule gets considerably tougher after the first three games of their season, I wouldn't be surprised if they regressed to four wins.

3. Bears - The carousel goes around and around at the signal caller position, and it looks like Kyle Orton is getting the call again. You'd think someone there could pick a pro-caliber QB, but alas, no. But the real killer for this team is that the D is not what it once was, and lacks depth. I'm guessing in the vicinity of 8-8.

2. Vikings - Despite the deficiencies of Tavaris Jackson, I think this team will compete for the division, and may even win the division, but that's going to depend on three things. One - Jackson has to keep from making the mistake that kills the team. Two - the health of Adrian Peterson. The young running back racked up some hard miles in his rookie year, and breaking down is a strong possibility, and if that happens this team will plummet in the standings. His ability to pound the ball last season made the Minnesota defense better by keeping them rested. If he's not touching the ball, they pay. Three - the health of Aaron Rogers.

1. Packers - The Packers won 13 games last season and were a few plays away from the Super Bowl. Their only major change was at quarterback. Rogers has been in the system for three seasons already, has been solid in preseason, and was better against the Cowboys last season than Brett Favre. If Rogers stays healthy, the Pack wins the division, albeit not by much. Last year they were five games better than the 8-8 Vikings. This season they're maybe two games better, and maybe not even that.

Edsel

From Wikipedia -

There is no single reason why the Edsel failed, and failed so spectacularly. Popular culture often faults the car’s styling. Consumer Reports cited poor workmanship. Marketing experts hold the Edsel up as a supreme example of corporate America’s failure to understand the nature of the American consumer.

I start off this way for a reason.

While growing up, the jokes I always heard about Ford was that the product name was an acronym - the jokes were that the acronym stood for either Fix Or Repair Daily, or Found On Road Dead. There was a general belief that Ford had trouble putting out a....competitive product.

I bring this up because I want to talk about another Ford product made in MoTown: The Lions.

Three weeks ago Detroit was everyone's surprise, a 6-2 media darling. The wow, John-Kitna-wasn't-just-blowing-smoke-when-he-guaranteed-the-team-would-win-at-least-ten-games team. This morning the Motor City is waking to a 6-4 record and a remaining schedule including games against Green Bay (twice), Dallas, San Diego, Minnesota, and KC.

Given the team's struggles against the NFC East, I'm going to assume Dallas as a loss, I don't think they can beat Green Bay, and I doubt they can do it against a struggling Chargers squad. While Minnesota and Kansas City are Detroit's best chance at wins in their remaining games, they barely beat the Vikings in the first go around, and I don't think the Chiefs are a gimme for them either. I think there's a very real possibility that Detroit finishes 6-10, and although 8-8 wouldn't surprise me, the Lions would have to get some very lucky breaks to even reach nine wins.

If Detroit is in that downward spiral, and they do end up 6-10, then general manager Matt Millen will have extended his dubious record of consecutive seasons presiding over clubs with double digit losses - as much an indictment of Millen as it would be of the Ford family.

If you're not part of the solution...

Just one more quick thing regarding Detroit - Offensive coordinator Mike Martz was being hailed for his work with the Lions three weeks ago. The Lions high powered offense was going to propel this team into the playoffs and Martz was going to be a hot commodity for teams looking for a new head coach. Two straight losses and Martz is part of the problem.

This isn't perceptual, it's the truth.

Martz is calling the plays on offense, and this is how he is calling them - over the last two games, the Lions have had 107 offensive snaps (not including punts). Of those, only 19 have been running plays (17.8 % of the plays) for a whopping total of 17 yards (-8 yards on 8 called running plays against Arizona).

Detroit is the only team in the league to have called fewer than 200 rushing plays (197) through ten games for a league last average of 76.9 yards per game. What has Martz's predictable play calling done for the team the last two weeks? It has pitted them against two decent pass defenses that knew they could pin their ears back and just rush the quarterback all day. Some relevant numbers - 3, as in the total number of touchdowns thrown by Kitna over the last two weeks. 5, as in the number of interceptions thrown by Kitna. 7, the number of times Kitna has been sacked over the last two weeks.

Martz is not going to be a HC candidate anywhere this off-season.

The Patriot Way...

Fifteen years ago I remember watching the likes of Tim Goad, Bruce Armstrong, Kevin Turner, Tom Hodson, Scott Zolack, Vincent Brown and a whole lot of other no-names stumble through a 2-14 season fresh off their 1-15 season. Were I sitting at a bar and another Patriots fan told me that New England would one day look like the best team to ever play the game, I would have punched him for mocking my pain.

Yet, here we are.

And here are a couple of thoughts on the dismantling of the competition - past and present - that the current Patriots squad is engaging in...

During last night's game John Madden said that he has never seen a quarterback play the way Tom Brady is playing right now. Nobody - not Brett Favre, not Dan Marino, not Peyton Manning. Just Brady. The numbers back it up.

The Patriots are on pace to break the record for points scored in a season...by a c-note. Brady is on pace to shatter Peyton Manning's record of 49 touchdown passes in a season. And don't be surprised if the following number becomes relevant in the Pats-Jets rematch - 72. It's the most points scored in a game by one team (Redskins over NY Giants, Nov 27, 1966. Final, 72-41). Or this number - 64. That was the most scored by a team (Philadelphia over Cincinnati, Nov. 6, 1934) in a shut-out victory.

Belichick is noted as a football historian, he probably already has these numbers himself.

To give everyone a sense of the Patriots dominance, I really do have to borrow the following tidbit from Peter King over at si.com -

I did some quick math on the Patriots' first-team offense over the past nine possessions, going back to the fourth quarter of the Colts' game, and not including their final possession in Indy, when they were trying to run out the clock and not trying to score. (New England had its bye last week.) The incredible numbers:

Possessions: 9
Touchdowns: 9
Quarters played: 4
Tom Brady touchdown passes: 7
Tom Brady passing yards: 504
Yards per drive: 65.9
Time per drive: 3:21

Even if the Patriots stumble on their quest for perfection, we're still watching history unfold.

One final note on...well, final scores. There are times that I like John Madden, other times that I get really tired of his schtick - but the man knows football, and is old school about it. And he said about the scoring what needed to be said. To paraphrase - it's not the offense's job to stop moving the ball. That job belongs to the defense, and if the offense is putting up 56 points, then the defense isn't doing its job. If they can't stop the offense, then the opponent is supposed to give the team the ball? That's not how it works.

Thanks Madden, it was nice to hear one of the national commentators remind people that the guys on defense are supposed to be earning their money too.