Story lines

There are some interesting story lines developing around sports right now. Some short term, some long term. I wanted to look at some...

Short term...

The Orlando Magic are one blown alley-oop away from being up 2-1 in the finals. Can they actually come back from down 2-0, or are they just making the NBA finals interesting?

Can the Penguins actually go into Detroit and pull off the upset?

Longer term stories to watch...

At some point this season the Yankees are going to win a game against the Red Sox. It could be tonight, it might not be until the next series. But will the Yankees inability to beat the Sox early in the season come back to haunt them late in the season? And on the flip side, how much could this early dominance by Boston play into the team winning the division?

Is David Ortiz actually showing signs of breaking out of his slump? He's riding a seven game hitting streak, and has had hits in 9 of his last 12. Even though it's the only time this season that he's had a hitting streak last more than three games, he hasn't exactly been tearing the cover off the ball. He's had only one multi-hit game in that stretch, and is 10 for 48 (.208) - even if you just look at his seven game hitting streak, he's a respectable 8 for 29 (.276), not exactly tearing the cover off the ball, but better. Right now it's a more compelling story than the Red Sox trials and tribulations at short stop. Will he or won't he?

As bad as Ortiz has been at the plate, Chien-Ming Wang has been worse on the mound for the Yankees. How far can they expect to go with a completely ineffective (defective?) Wang. They're already keeping their fingers crossed that AJ Burnett and Joba Chamberlain can stay healthy, what is their future (this season) going to look like if they have to rely on an imminently hittable Phil Hughes? And how long can Andy Pettitte go, with batters hitting over .280 against him?

I can't help but think over on the gridiron that the Patrick Pass signing was more or less to add depth at the position for training camp. Does he have a shot at the team? Sure, but I would be surprised if he were on the roster on opening day. Honestly, I would be surprised if he made it to the final cuts. It should be interesting to watch.

Of course, there's always the question of Tom Brady's knee, and how he will respond in game situations. A lot of people are talking about early season issues due to shaking the rust off, and while possible, I think Brady will get the time and reps to do that during the preseason games. What people aren't talking about is how the Patriots' schedule might impact their high-octane offense.

After the bye week in 2007, on the team's way to the only 16-0 regular season, the Patriots played seven consecutive cold weather games, four of which were in Gillette, the rest of which were at the Meadowlands, at Buffalo, and at Baltimore. In the coming season, after the bye the Patriots will play nine games. Four games are at home - Miami on November 8, the Jets on November 22, Carolina on December 13, and Jacksonville on December 27. Of those, only the Jets game starts later than 1:00, and the Miami game is early enough in the season that the weather may or may not be a factor.

Of the other five games, one is in Buffalo, three are either in domes or stadiums with retractible roofs (Indy, New Orleans, and Houston), and the other is in Miami. With about half of their remaining games being played either indoors or in warm places, the Patriots offense has a chance to really light things up...assuming Brady is perfectly healthy.

Outside of New England, these are the things to watch -

The play calling of the new staff in Indianapolis. This is going to go a long way towards determining where the Colts end up this season. Will it be a seamless transition from last year? Do all the coaches have a good instinct for the right defense at the right time? Will they find they have the right people at the right positions?

Is Rex Ryan the right man for the job in New York, and are they really going to make any noise with their current quarterback situation?

Can Chad Pennington stay healthy for the entire season? Pennington has struggled his entire career to put together back to back healthy seasons. When healthy he's a top ten QB in the league - no, he doesn't rack up big statistics, but he's smart and doesn't turn the ball over a whole lot, and wins, even with sub-par talent. If Pennington can't stay healthy, the Dolphins have no chance. Healthy, they can still get to the playoffs.

How is the Buffalo soap opera going to play out? Sure, they managed to get an extra weapon in Terrell Owens, but he's paired with, easily, the worst quarterback of his career (after dealing with Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, Drew Bledsoe, and Tony Romo), and they open the season without their star running back for three games. If the team starts off 0-3 or 1-2, what's the likelihood that Owens will hold his tongue? The Bills are on the verge of becoming the AFC East's Bengals, or Raiders.

Speaking of the Bengals, after admitting to the press that he mailed it in back in 2008, are there any teammates that are going to trust Chad Ochocinco?

How's Jay Cutler going to fare without any legitimate, top-flight receivers?

How are teams like Denver, Cleveland and Kansas going to fare under their new regimes?

Will Lance Armstrong be ready for the Tour de France coming off his injury?

Off-hand, those are just some of the ones I can think of. Should be a fun year.

An absolute mugging

My initial thought was to describe the Bears trade for Jay Cutler an absolute mugging - the bears traded Kyle Orton and this year's first and third round picks as well as next year's first rounder for Cutler and Denver's fifth round pick this year. My wife pointed out that when one is mugged that the muggee doesn't look at the mugger and say, "here, take my credit cards and cash, and I'll put up some token resistance by making a half-hearted effort to scratch your face."

She's right. No. This was more like Denver telling the Bears to bend over and drop trou, and the Bears saying back, "with Vaseline or without?"

This was an absolute violation of the Catholic priest variety.

As mediocre as Kyle Orton has been, Cutler hasn't actually been significantly better. A quick look -

In three seasons Orton has played in 33 games while Cutler has played in 37 games. I will give Orton's actual numbers and his 37 game projections...

Yes, Cutler has a better completion percentage and put up more yardage - 62.5 percent and 9024 yards to Orton's 55.3 and 5319 yards (5964 over 37 games), but Cutler has also been throwing to the likes of Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Javon Walker and Rod Smith. Orton's two best targets in the last three seasons would both be picked after any one of the four above - Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian. The trade will answer the question as to whether the receivers made the QB or vice versa with these two.

But let's look at some other telling stats...

Cutler has thrown 37 interceptions in 37 games, Orton has had 27 in 33. Cutler has an average of 11.8 yards per catch to Orton's 10.5.

But here are some of the really important ones - Orton is 21-12 with and was instrumental in getting the Bears to at least one playoff appearance. Cutler is 17-20 with no playoff appearances. Cutler's best season was 8-8. Orton's? 10-5.

Considering that Cutler was drafted 11th and Orton 106th, I would expect more from Cutler than this.

And if I were a Bears fan this morning, I would be buying something to sooth that burning feeling coming from my sphincter.

Observations after a politically busy week

No one has mentioned this, even though it was often mentioned as a possibility when Roger Clemens was at the forefront of the news for a slew of stupid decisions, but W has left office with a bare minimum of presidential pardons. The Rocketman's name wasn't on that list. And the Grand Jury investigation continues.

Can't help but think that, in the end, Rusty Hardin figured on a pardon from Bush, a long-time friend of the family. Also can't help but think that Clemens is pretty well screwed now. I wonder what the strategic move is now?

I think one of the more compelling story-lines through to the Super Bowl is going to be that part of Bill Cowher's brain-trust - Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm scheming against players that they coached for years.

I still like the way the Red Sox are going about business this off-season. I have to say that the Yankees just seem like they're doing more of the same - blowing big dollars on guys that had great contract seasons, but, for the most part, have questionable histories in regards to being real impact players.

Dave over at the Coffin Corner has an interesting post about Mayor Daley in Chicago lobbying the NFL for a second franchise in the Windy City. My theory is, in spite of all the Bear-love that the citizens have for the hometown team, that Daley senses a dissatisfied undercurrent running through the voting populace there in how the Bear ownership runs their team - there is a definite sense that they run the Bears as though they were in a small market.

I can understand the fan-base's frustration, if this is indeed the case, given the fact that Chicago is the second largest television market in the NFL, and third overall. The only top ten television market in the United States without an NFL team is Los Angeles - and, as much as the NFL wants a presence in that market, teams have just not worked out there.

Ironically, even though the Bears play in the second largest media market in the NFL, they're ninth in team valuations according to Forbes. The top three, in order, are Cowboys, Redskins, and Patriots - the sixth, seventh, and eight largest markets respectively in the NFL. The sixth and seventh most valuable teams on the list - the Texans, and the Colts - the 10th and 22nd largest media markets in the NFL respectively.

While Bears management hasn't been as brutally bad as say San Francisco, the league's third largest market, now hosting two of the league's three least valuable teams, one has to question what Jerry Jones, Bob Kraft, and Daniel Snyder know that the McCaskey family doesn't. Even the value of the Jets breaks the top five in the NFL.

Obviously, there are revenue streams that exist that the McCaskey's have never figured out how to tap, and they use that as an excuse.

The Dog Days and the NFC North

In recent years this series - Sawx-Yanks - in the dog days of August has meant a lot to the complexion of the American League East. It has played a part in determining the East Champ, and even the Wild Card contender. It's where the wheels came off of the Sawx in 2005.

It's where the Sawx gave Yankees hope for the division last season.

This year it's less about the division than who ends up out of the playoffs. Nothing is written in stone, and both the Yankees and Sox have looked a little cooked lately, while the Twins have surged recently. Granted, the Sox were looking a little cooked at the beginning of
September last season, dropping five of their six to the Yanks in August and September and look what happened there.

But let's face a few basic facts - a month ago the Sox were by themselves as the wild card entrant if the season ended then. Now the margin of the Twins is smaller than the space between the Sox and the division leading Rays - who have added games between the two teams in the last month. The Sox still have a chance to pull it off - even the division - but the team has to play better ball of the next month than they have for the last month.

Needless to say, it's gonna be one hairy September in the Hub of the Universe.

And onto the gridiron...

The NFC North - Something feels weird about this division. It's filled with teams that all have issues, fatal flaws if you will, in regards to their aspirations to a Lombardi Trophy. All have an issue at a key position - quarterback - and some have issues that go deeper.

4. Lions - They may actually have the best quarterback in the division in John Kitna (and this might be the first time in Kitna's career that has EVER been written about him), and based on last year, Rod Marinelly might finally have this team heading in the right direction. But let's face two basic facts: The Ford Family ownership of this team has been an unending nightmare, and Matt Millen's tenure as a GM has been record shattering, and not in a good way. No team in the history of the NFL has had as many consecutive seasons with double-digits in the loss column, and I have a hard time buying that he's learned to be better than any of his in-division counterparts. If the Lions finish ahead of another team in the division, I'm guessing it has less to do with the Lions elevating their level of play than it does with the other team spitting the bit. I have a hard time seeing this team improving on their 7-9 season of last year, and considering their schedule gets considerably tougher after the first three games of their season, I wouldn't be surprised if they regressed to four wins.

3. Bears - The carousel goes around and around at the signal caller position, and it looks like Kyle Orton is getting the call again. You'd think someone there could pick a pro-caliber QB, but alas, no. But the real killer for this team is that the D is not what it once was, and lacks depth. I'm guessing in the vicinity of 8-8.

2. Vikings - Despite the deficiencies of Tavaris Jackson, I think this team will compete for the division, and may even win the division, but that's going to depend on three things. One - Jackson has to keep from making the mistake that kills the team. Two - the health of Adrian Peterson. The young running back racked up some hard miles in his rookie year, and breaking down is a strong possibility, and if that happens this team will plummet in the standings. His ability to pound the ball last season made the Minnesota defense better by keeping them rested. If he's not touching the ball, they pay. Three - the health of Aaron Rogers.

1. Packers - The Packers won 13 games last season and were a few plays away from the Super Bowl. Their only major change was at quarterback. Rogers has been in the system for three seasons already, has been solid in preseason, and was better against the Cowboys last season than Brett Favre. If Rogers stays healthy, the Pack wins the division, albeit not by much. Last year they were five games better than the 8-8 Vikings. This season they're maybe two games better, and maybe not even that.

Appearances

Whether directly involved in the shooting in Philadelphia or not, Marvin Harrison is a baaaaad man. And I don't mean that in the slangy good way.

While Harrison has not been named a suspect in the shooting of three men in North Philly in the proximity of a business he owns, appearances aren't good. To wit -

• Harrison recently had a heated fight with one of the men.
• Harrison's custom handgun was used in the shooting.
• Harrison released a statement saying that neither he nor his gun were involved in the shooting. Ballistics says otherwise in regards to the gun registered in his name.
  
• The handgun was recovered from under rags in a bucket at a car wash owned by Harrison.
• What was the wealthy Harrison doing back in North Philadelphia, one of the poorest, highest violent crime neighborhoods in the United States? I know it's where he grew up, but isn't returning to neighborhoods like this part of what got Pacman Jones in trouble?
  
• And Harrison's handgun raises all sorts of questions about Harrison's character...
  why does anyone (not a criminal) need to own this - from an Associated Press report, "In November (2005) the Homeland Security Department issued an 'Officer Safety Alert' regarding the (BFN 5.7) with the headline 'body armor defeating handgun. The alert said the Trumbull, Conn., police department had seized such a pistol and noted that its bullets were 'advertised as being able to penetrate 48 layers of Kevlar at 50 meters.'"

Unless you plan on firing a gun at someone wearing Kevlar...like, oh, a cop or a soldier, why does anyone need this firearm?

Not ringing true...

I have questions, from both sides, regarding the Cedric Benson arrest for drunken boating. If what Benson says about being on the boat with his family is accurate, it puts some of the Austin police's actions in question.

However, it must also be noted that the following summary from NBC smells of cow manure -

Benson said he was carried and dragged to a squad car once reaching land, but not because he was resisting officers. He said it was because his ankles and feet were kicked out from under him, and so he couldn't walk. Benson said he pleaded with police. "Please sir, let me just walk off the boat like a man," Benson said he told the officer.

Somehow I don't buy that a man who was hot-headed enough to end up in jail for eight-days for breaking into somebody's house over an allegedly stolen television is level-headed enough to remain polite while dealing with police brutality.

I'm not absolving the police here. They very well may have done things that they shouldn't have. But I do know that there are things about Benson's story that don't add up either.

Don't want to go there anymore...

But Mike Lupica has it covered in spades.

T'ain't broke, don't fix it...

The BCS has voted down a proposed playoff format.

This is going to upset a lot of people who feel that the BCS' national championship is purely arbitrary. The fact that in the NFL we have seen a six seed (Pittsburgh) win the Super Bowl has had no influence on those who can change the way the BCS operates. But why should they?

What people don't understand is, by the thinking of the BCS, the system isn't broken.

The system isn't about choosing a national champion, much like in television, the product isn't about the television show. The bowl series is a delivery mechanism as are television shows.

In television, shows are designed to deliver audience to advertisers - which is what television stations sell - advertising time. They need to appeal to companies that want audience for their product.

The BCS is about making money and they do that hand over fist in the current format. The proposed change was to have a four-team playoff system. Assuming for corporate naming rights/sponsorships to the playoffs, that would set the BCS up for a total of three post-season games. Right now the organization has five games, so in theory, instituting the four-team system would cut into approximately 40 percent of the organization's profits.

Make no mistake, the National Championship isn't what the BCS is about. Money is. And as a money maker, the BCS isn't broken.

Swan song a mostly forgettable tune

The longest tenured Patriot was finally getting in on the act.

Troy Brown would be active.

A career special teams demon, he would be returning punts.

He returned six for 55 yards. A respectable 9.2 yard average, with a physical 28 yard return that brought the ball back to mid-field.

Unfortunately he also had the one that clanged off his face-mask giving the Dolphins the ball back after a sterling series by the defense.

His day fielding punt returns was like the offense's day in microcosm - Laurence Maroney battered the Dolphins for over 150 yards on 14 carries, while Jabar Gaffney hauled in five passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. The stars, on the other hand, failed to shine - Brady while good, still tossed two picks, and both Wes Welker and Randy Moss dropped passes that would have kept drives alive in the second half when the offense put a big donut on the scoreboard. It was the first time all season the Patriots offense was shut out in a half.

Your prolific offense getting shut down in the second half by the Miami Dolphins is not going to put any sort of fear into the likes of the Colts, or the Jaguars come football's second season.

On the positive side of the ledger -

Wes Welker is one touchdown away from breaking the Patriots' record for receptions in a season, currently held by Brown with 101.

Stephen Gostkowski set a new league record for extra points in a season.

The Patriots broke the record for touchdowns scored in a season with 71 and counting. The previous record was held by the 1984 Dolphins.

The Pats are six points shy of tying the mark for most points by a team.

Randy Moss needs two touchdown receptions to break Jerry Rice's record of 22, and Tom Brady needs two TD passes to break Peyton Manning's record of 49.

The team tied their own record of 18 straight regular season wins, and are poised to break that with a win next week.

And with a current passer rating of 119.7, Manning's season record of 121.1 for a season is within reach (although if Brady makes decisions against the Giants like he did against the Jets and Dolphins, it just isn't happening).

Not to be lost in all this is the fact that the Patriots dominated an opponent on the ground for the second straight week, ringing up 196 yards on 25 carries - a 7.8 yard per carry clip that even against the deficient Dolphins is a good sign heading into the post season. The supposedly run-deficient Patriots entered the game with the 12th ranked running game in the league - not bad for the noted weakness of the offense.

Other thoughts...

Tom Coughlin can't be overwhelmed by the Giants mistake filled win over the Buffalo Bills. His playoff bound team got even more dinged up as it did everything it could in the first half to hand Buffalo this game on a silver platter. If New York plays like this against just about any other playoff contender in the post season they will be one and done.

The Browns had a chance to push Pittsburgh's back against the wall and possibly win the division with a win over the sad-sack Cincinnati Bengals and couldn't seal the deal. Ditto for Green Bay in regards to having a chance at forcing the Cowboys to have to travel to the Frozen Tundra for the conference championship game. Instead Brett Favre and the Pack spit the bit, losing 35-7 to a Bears team that is a shadow of its former self.

Minnesota, also with a chance to seal their place in the playoffs also blew it, dropping a game to the Redskins 32-21. The only teams that came up big in keeping their playoff hopes alive were the Titans who squeaked by the Jets to even their record with the 9-6 Browns (Cleveland holds the tie breakers), and the Redskins who have evened their record with Minnesota at 8-7, but now hold the tie-breaker by virtue of this weekend's victory over the Vikings.

So I was wrong - the Lions will go 7-9, not 6-10. I gotta find me some employers like the Ford family. Evidently anything short of blowing the company to Kingdom Come won't get you fired.

One last thought -

Does anyone out there suppose Miami fans watched that game and thought, "why can't the Dolphins get players like Heath Evans, Wes Welker, Kyle Eckel, and Junior Seau...wait...um...nevermind. Dumbass GM."

Signs your team is headed in the wrong direction

• When ESPN promotes your game, they announce, "watch the Bears led by returner Devin Hester take on..." Let's face it, if the biggest star/most exciting player on the team you root for is the kick/punt returner, your team is in trouble.
• Matt Millen is the general manager of the team you root for. This needs no further explanation.
• Your general manager decides, in spite of all the other glaring weaknesses on the team, to let the team's leading wide receiver go in free-agency, and replaces him in the draft with a an injured kick returner that's not projected to be a number one receiver in the league. To make it worse, the GM let's him go to a division rival.
• Pundits struggle to justify why your team took a third-down back with a top five pick over a defensive end with nine-and-a-half sacks in his second year...and continue to claim that they still would have taken that running back over the defensive end if they re-did the 2006 draft today.
• The best excuse your defense can come up with for why they lost a game is that the refs were against them. Not that their own coordinator called a time-out, not that they killed themselves with obvious and blatant penalties - no, it has to be the refs' faults.
• Your franchise quarterback cops a guilty plea to a federal offense, players publicly feud with your new head coach on the sideline, and then said coach bails on the team 13 games into his contract. Quality judgement there by that front office.
• The best thing that can be said about a team's season is that they got their first win before the Dolphins.

Let's see - that would be, in succession: Chicago, Detroit, Miami, New Orleans, Baltimore, Atlanta, and St. Louis. Combined, those teams have a 29-69 record (aided greatly by the Saint's 7-7 record, and overall a rip-roaring .296 winning percentage). Are there other teams with problems? You bet. Are all of these teams heading in the wrong direction? You bet.

On a different note...

Over Thanksgiving, my brother-in-law noted some guy in the press bitching about the way Belichick dressed. If it bother people, fine. Is it Belichick probably thumbing his nose at the deal the NFL has with Reebok? Yeah, it probably is.

However...

Here's the funny thing - my wife was scanning the Patriots on-line store, presumably for a Christmas gift for me. While there, she noted something interesting - the Pats are marketing a Belichick hoodie as well as a Belichick throw. For the hoodie they're charging $75.00 and $45.00 for the throw.

What other team is able to market clothing under the name of the coach? Sure, you'll see the "like the polo worn on the sidelines by Mike Holmgren," or one of the other coaches, but you won't see it listed as "Holmgren Sideline Polo," it will be listed as, "Coach's Sideline Polo."

Welcome to Patriot Nation. It love's its coach.

Some quick thoughts

I've got that sinkin' feeling...

I can't help but think that the Red Sox are going to be one and done in the post season. Over the last month the team has struggled against quality opposition. By the same token, none of the entrants in the American League thrill me. The ones playing the best baseball lately I have to admit appear to be the Yankees, but even they have fatal flaws in regards to the post-season.

Sweet home Chicago...

While I think the benching of Rex Grossman in Chicago is long overdue, I don't think that Brian Griese is the answer. Griese has never been the answer where ever he has played - why should he be the answer in Chi-town?

With Grossman's contract up at the end of the season, what do you suppose the over/under is on the Bears drafting their quarterback of the future (again) next April?

.38 Special...

In the land of prognostication, the plentiful predictors of the pigskin press tend to be calling for a high scoring affair in the Patriots' Monday night tilt in Cincinnati. The last time the two teams played, there were questions as to whether or not the Patriots defense would be able to hold the Bengals high-octane offense. The final of that game? 38-13 in favor of the Patriots.

After successive scores of 38-14 (over the Jets), 38-14 (over the Chargers), and 38-7 (over the Bills), anyone want to predict a result significantly different than what happened the last time these two teams faced off?

Questionable call...

Having coached sports, I was puzzled by the Briana Scurry start against Brazil in the Women's World Cup tournament. I understand why Greg Ryan started Scurry, given her past record against Brazil, but I still see it as a move that is indefensible. As such, the man needs to stop defending the decision, admit he fucked up and move on.

For those of you who don't know - US goalkeeper Hope Solo had beaten Scurry out for the starting position entering tournament play. Solo had a 300 minute stretch going back to the first game in the tournament during which she hadn't given up a goal. Scurry hadn't started and played a full game in over three months.

The United States lost to Brazil 4-0. In soccer terms, a blow-out.

If they had lost 1-0, even 2-0, maybe Ryan's position is defensible. Four-nil? Suck it up and admit your mistake. You benched the hot-hand in order to put the veteran near the end of the line into a game she had no business starting.

For those of you who think I'm being too harsh on Scurry, I just want to say - she was one of the goalies for the Philadelphia Charge when I was a beat writer covering the team for a suburban Philadelphia newspaper. Personally, I like her. However, when she played for Philadelphia, she was inconsistent. Alternately she was the best goalie I had ever seen in the women's game, or she was a definitive second stringer.

The other day the second stringer showed up.

It's a shame the team's greatest Hope in winning was on the bench.

NFL Questions: NFC North

Not too long ago the "Black and Blue" division boasted a still effective Bret Favre, a prolific offense in Minnesota, a solid Bears squad with a linebacking corps led by Brian Urlacher and Rosevelt Colvin, and...sorry to say it, a Detroit team that even then was the league punchline. Now the division boasts the NFC Champion Bears and little else.

Chicago Bears - Can Rex Grossman correct his flaws? Grossman was alternately the best quarterback or the worst quarterback in the league on any given Sunday last season, seldom ending up in between. More often than not, after a hot start, Grossman played ugly, and the Bears often won in spite of him - usually because of strong play from the defense, special teams, and the running backs. With a somewhat revamped backfield, the pressure is on Grossman to get better and be more consistent. If he shows little to no improvement, the Bears will have trouble getting back to the Super Bowl, and could have trouble making the post season.

Detroit Lions - Who has learned the bigger lesson during the GM tenure of Matt Millen - Millen or the Ford family? Did Millen finally learn how to evaluate and choose personnel, and has the Ford family figured out that this should Millen's last chance as the GM - a chance that would have been long gone had he managed any other NFL team like this? If the Lions flop again this year, look for the infighting in the Ford family to go to a new level as the son (never a fan of Millen's) makes a new and harder push for the GM's ouster.

Green Bay Packers - Can the Green Bay win with what they have right now? Other than at quarterback, this is a young team. A really young team. Last year they started three rookies on offense alone. At times they shined, at other times they got their hats handed to them, so the question becomes - did they get enough experience, or ar there going to be close to half-a-dozen players suffering through a sophomore slump? If they're not ready for prime-time, this is going to be a team going through severe growing pains.

Minnesota Vikings - Do the Vikings have a legitimate starting quarterback? No one really knows yet whether or not Tavaris Jackson is the answer - if he's not, then who is? Brooks Bollinger? Drew Henson? Tyler Thigpen? Yes, they did the right thing when they gave up on Duante Culpepper, who may be done, but they don't seem to even have a good stop-gap while trying to develop Jackson - if he's even the solution. If he's not, then we're looking at one of three teams that could easily slide to the bottom of the division.

The NFL offseason - putting the FUN back in dysFUNction

This has been a busy offseason for the NFL - the Pacman Jones and Chris Henry suspensions, the impending Tank Johnson suspension, the Michael Vick investigation. And this is just the tip of the iceberg with other players like Green Bay linebacker Nick Barnett being arrested and a tenth Bengal in the last 14 months getting picked up.

While it seems like the NFL is a refuge for violent offenders and yes, the number is rising every year, the proportion of males given to criminal behavior in society as a whole is still larger proportionately than the number in the NFL.

No...the dysfunction that I want to talk about isn't the criminals as I have so often littered our headlines of late. I want to take a quick look at the NFL's dysfunctional franchises.

1. The Bengals - The Queen City's grid-iron entry gets the top ranking by default with close to 20 percent of the team making for a police line-up. Marvin Lewis has his work cut out as he goes about trying to change the culture of criminality in his lockerroom.

2. The Raiders - A few lucky bounces are all that kept this team from going 0-16 last season and now the players are whining that practices are too tough. Al Davis is going to be dead before this team wins again.

3. The Bears - How often does a team make it to the Super Bowl, only to have the defensive tackle go to jail, linebacker hold out, a defensive lineman throw the starting quarterback under the bus, and the ownership get involved in a protracted and ugly contract negotiation with the winningest head coach they have had since Ditka left. Anyone really think that this team is really going to make it to the Super Bowl again.

4. The Falcons - Everything that comes out of here is either done to enable Michael Vick, or make excuses for him, which I suppose amounts to the same thing. If Vick gets indicted in the dogfighting probe, and subsequently suspended, it could be the best thing to happen to this team.

5. The Vikings - It seems like whenever news comes out of the Dome in regards to the purple, it's about how Childress has already lost the locker room, what some player has done wrong, or what horrible personnel move that the team has made.

Extracurricular activities reshaping 2007 NFL rosters

Ah - nothing like the moron patrol to change a general manager's plans...

Consider some of the following -

Chicago Blues -
Tank Johnson, recently sentenced to spend the next four months in jail for violating his probation on gun charges, is likely to be facing a minimum four game suspension from the league when next season starts. While the jail sentence should end in time for Johnson to attend training camp, the violation puts him in violation of common terms in all NFL contracts and, as such, will cost him 25 percent of next year's paychecks.

What it will cost the Bears is a change in the off-season philosophy. The Bears know they will likely be without the services of their starting nose tackle for a portion of the beginning of next season. While the team's schedule hasn't been announced, its opponents have and they will be facing at least nine out-of-division opponents who will try to pound the ball on them in the Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Saints, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, and Chargers.

For a team that already has holes in their secondary due to free-agency, and one pissed-off franchised linebacker, this alters what the general manager has to do both in free-agency and the draft. Act of God is one thing, act of Tank has gotta hack Jerry Angelo off.

Tennessee Waltz -
Pacman never learned that the blue ghosts are only good in the video game. When they're in blue in real-life, they're probably cops.

Adam "Pacman" Jones evidently had two run-ins with Georgia police which recently came to light. Evidently Jones never informed his employers of these run-ins and speculation is that these charges are going to result in a plea as well as a possible season-long suspension from the NFL under the same contract provision that is likely to cause Johnson to miss games.

The rampant speculation is that the volatile Jones has played his last game as a Titan, which led to the signing of former Colt Nick Harper in the first place.

I'll have the Porterhouse -
I'm not saying that this will necessarily result in league discipline, but don't be surprised if linebacker Joey Porter misses a couple of games next season before debuting with the Dolphins for his alleged assault of Bengals tackle Levi Jones. Unless the charges are dropped, Porter was cited by Las Vegas police for misdemeanor battery, I'm guessing that the NFL will come down pretty hard on him - especially considering that the Player's Union has expressed an interest in stemming the police reports associated with its membership.

Just one suggestion to the NFL - do not ever consider Vegas as an expansion site. It seems that whenever NFL player news comes out of there it always involves a police report.

How are these guys not on the Bengals?

According to a December article in the Washington Post approximately 35 NFL players were arrested over the previous 12 months – since then there has been at least one more arrest of a Bengal, which means that the Bengals which account for 3.125 percent of the active players in the league account for approximately 25 percent of the arrests.

I would like to propose a rule change: Any player arrested for a felony offense, or on drug charges is to immediately be traded to the Bengals for a player of equal value for tracking purposes. Once there are no players left of equal value without criminal records, then the Raiders will become the new repository for said players.

The following are the folks that I can’t believe that the Bengals personnel office missed on (and these are just the ones I can remember), keeping in mind that some have been acquitted and some are still facing their day in court –

Offense -

Ruben Droughns, RB Browns – Arrested in May 2006 on one count of assault and two counts of harassment. Also acquitted of earlier drunk driving infraction.

Michael Vick, QB Falcons – Repeated links to marijuana including the recent fiasco at a Miami airport when Vick refused to surrender a water bottle to homeland security officials. Also, has a known alias (Ron Mexico) that is linked to a sex-related civil suit.

Koren Robinson, WR Vikings/Packers - Released during training camp after being arrested on charges of drunken driving and fleeing from police.

Randy Moss, WR Raiders – Past links to marijuana use and resisting arrest. Currently doing everything in his power to get traded including yell and swear at his new head coach.

Ricky Williams, RB Dolphins – Drug issues.

Defense -

Joe Cullen, Asst Coach D Line, Lions – Arrested twice during 2006. In August for an alleged indecent and obscene conduct issue at a fast food drive-in. The second at the beginning of September was for alleged drunk driving

Terrence Kiel, S Chargers - arrested by Drug Enforcement Administration agents at the team's practice facility in September on charges of transporting and possessing a controlled substance.

Steve Foley, LB Chargers - Shot and wounded by an off-duty police officer after a high speed chase for which Foley was charged with drunken driving.

Dwight Smith, S Vikings - Cited by Minneapolis police for indecent conduct in a stairwell outside a downtown nightclub with an unnamed woman.

Sean Taylor, S Redskins – As of last January was facing three counts of aggravated assault and potentially faced up to 46 years in prison. Also has had an issue with spitting on other players.

Adam “Pacman” Jones, CB Titans – Arrested for assault for spitting on a woman at a nightclub in October. Also had a previous run in for which he was charged with public intoxication and disorderly conduct.

Ricky Manning Jr, CB Bears - Arrested was arrested for assault with a deadly weapon in April.

Tank Johnson, DT Bears – Arrested several times over the last couple of season for a variety of offenses including felony gun charges, six misdemeanor counts of unlawful possession of a weapon without a Firearm Owner's Identification card and aggravated assault and resisting arrest.

I Guess Because Ho-Hum Bowl Doesn't Sound as Good...

I have seen better.

Granted, I have also seen worse championship bouts, but this year's Super Bowl certainly wasn't in the top 50 percent of the games played. This was a game in which both teams did their damnedest to give the game away - Chicago just worked a little harder at it.

The Colts turned the ball over three times on offense (twice from the game's MVP), missed an extra point and a field goal. The Colts high-powered offense accounted for 22 total points on a rainy night.

Unfortunately for the Bears, their offense could manage only 10 points and Rex Grossman was responsible for three of the team's five turnovers (two interceptions on poorly thrown balls and one fumble on the center exchange) - two coming at a time late in the game when the Bears still had an opportunity to pull ahead on touchdowns. Grossman had a later fumble on the exchange that he recovered himself.

It was a sloppy game with few exciting moments (I am not saying this because I am a Patriots fan - I still feel that the Giants-Bills game in January of 1991 is amongst the best ever, the conflicts between the Steelers and Cowboys are epic - except for a mediocre game in the mid 1990's, and the 49ers-Bengals game was special - and I don't like either of those teams).

As for the game MVP - I think the selection of Manning was weak, and probably based more on sentiment than what he actually did to win the game. Let me qualify this by adding that I don't necessarily feel as though there was a clear cut candidate.

His game wasn't horrible, but it wasn't "Most Valuable Player" quality either (Hell, Rex Grossman completed as many touchdown passes to Colts as Manning did). I think that Dominick Rhodes was just as deserving for his ability to keep the Bears offense on the sidelines and to wear out the Bears D while racking up 113 yards and a touchdown on 21 rushing attempts.

Another option would be safety Bob Sanders. Granted he had only two tackles, but also forced one of the Bear fumbles and had an interception (returned 38 yards) and a pass defensed. And a final, although unlikely candidate - Adam Vinatieri. He accounted for 11 points, and after the initial kickoff, kept the ball away from the dangerous Devin Hester.

The Prince of South Beach -

Ah, Prince and the half-time show...It was one of the better halftime shows that I have ever seen, but I have to admit to some surprise at the lack of outrage from middle America about the sexual suggestiveness of the shadow-theater at the tail end of the mini-concert (see the Reuters picture above).

Racial Barriers -

This morning on ESPN's Mike & Mike radio show Mike Greenberg made a big deal about "racial barriers" being broken. It is, at its core, a ridiculous sentiment that implies that there was someone, or some group of someones in control of the NFL that have consciously been trying to hold back black head coaches.

If Tony Dungy were the ONLY black head coach in the NFL right now (he wasn't even the only one in the Super Bowl), I would concede that this Super Bowl win was about a racial barrier that has been broken, that his win would probably mean that other black coaches would get shots at more of the top spots, but this is a guy that's been a head coach for a decade and he's not alone as a black head coach in the NFL.

Here's the real trick - name a Latino head coach. Asian? Hell, try for assistants - outside of Ron Rivera of the Bears, it's pretty hard, isn't it?

Black History Month and the Super Bowl

During the course of the 2006 NFL campaign five AFC teams were piloted by black head coaches - Cincinnati (Marvin Lewis), Cleveland (Romeo Crennel), Indianapolis (Tony Dungy), Kansas City (Herm Edwards), and Oakland (Art Shell). In the NFC, there were two - Arizona (Denny Green), and Chicago (Lovie Smith). Shell and Green have since been fired and Mike Tomlin hired in Pittsburgh to replace Bill Cowher.

This is the first post-season in NFL history that will feature a black head coach, and as the dominoes fell this post season, it will feature one on each sideline. What does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Absolutely nothing. Is it progress? Yes.

However, as long as we pay attention to black versus white in the coaching carousel - we in the press, in the executive suite, and as fans - do an injustice to those coaching on the sideline.

Is it historically important? Probably not. From a color barrier standpoint, there are a number of others that came before in the athletic arena that led the way. It's unlikely that during the two week press whirlwind that is the time between the division championships and the end of the Super Bowl that we'll hear a reporter repeat a paraphrase of the ignorance that Redskins quarterback Doug Williams was subject to over 20 years ago with the question of, "How long have you been a black quarterback?"

Lovie Smith and Tony Dungy are unlikely to receive the hate mail and threats received by Hank Aaron almost 35 years ago when he was on the verge of breaking Babe Ruth's all-time home run record.

The NFL will not have to switch hotels in Miami, or pull the game from the city like the American Football League pulled its 1965 All-Star Game from New Orleans and moved it to Houston due to the way that 23 black players were being treated in the city.

The coaches will not be forced to seek out separate accommodations for themselves or their black players from those of their white teammates like the coach for Jackie Robinson did.

Players today seldom, if ever, have political agendas such as Muhammed Ali, Jim Brown, and Olympians Tommie Smith, and John Carlos.

Do problems still exist with the system? Sure. This season past season saw seven teams with black coaches, and if the Cowboys hire a white coach then next season will have only six black men in charge of teams in a league where more than half the players are black. Are there more than six qualified candidates? We won't know until the candidates get the opportunity.

However, Green gave us three losing seasons in Arizona, and Shell presided over the NFL equivalent of A Comedy of Errors, then again, Mike Singletary's name has been looming large as a soon to be hot commodity.

While the interviewing rule changes proposed by the Rooney family, owners of the Pittsburgh Steelers, has helped, the genesis of these changes and the really important changes go back years.

It goes back to coaches like Hank Stram, and Joe Gibbs who gave blacks chances at positions that most believed they were incapable of playing. It goes back to owners in the old AFL, like Al Davis, who listened to the complaints of the players who were confronted by racism. It goes back to Brown, Ali, Smith, Robinson, and Carlos, who weathered the early social and legal violence that went with being popular symbols in a fight for racial equality during a time when teams couldn't even stay in the same hotel and fans often were not allowed to utilize the same facilities at a stadium just because of the color of their skin.

It goes back earlier to Jesse Owens putting the punctuation mark on the joke of the Aryan Master Race and to a son of a slave that laid the ground work for the Reverend Martin Luther King, Jr. - Paul Robeson .

According to the online archive at Rutgers, "Robeson was awarded a four year academic scholarship to Rutgers University in 1915, the third black student in the history of the institution. Despite the openly racist and violent opposition he faced, Robeson became a twelve letter athlete excelling in baseball, basketball, football, and track. He was named to the All American Football team on two occasions. In addition to his athletic talents, Robeson was named a Phi Beta Kappa scholar, belonged to the Cap & Skull Honor Society, and graduated valedictorian of his class in 1919."

Robeson was an outspoken proponent of equal rights in the 1940's, but faced censorship from the House Committee on Un-American activities. For more information on Robeson and his importance to sparking the Civil Rights Movement, click here.

One Helluva Football Weekend...

Wow.
The clock struck midnight yesterday on the Cinderella Saints as Chicago overcame a rough start by Grossman to lay down a serious spanking on New Orleans. While it ends possibly the most compelling story in the NFL this year. It opens up a different, yet compelling storyline which I will touch on momentarily.
First - the marquee match up of the weekend; Colts-Pats.
I heard a lot of people last week questioning how the Pats were going to keep pace with the Colts in the Dome, but I kept saying that this was going to come down to the last possession, and it did.
Brady made an uncharacteristic mistake in the last minute of a game, and the colts DB, unlike the Chargers DB did the smart thing after intercepting Brady. He sat down, eliminating any possibility of a game-changing turnover that would give the Patriots another chance.
Yesterday we watched two AFC teams play in a hard fought game that was really a tale of two halves.
The Patriots dominated the first thirty minutes and the Colts the second. Unfortunately, from my standpoint, the Colts made one more play than the Patriots did when it counted.
I commend the Colts for making the necessary adjustments to get the job done.
However, I do have to say, I have heard a lot of talk about how with a win in this round Manning gets the monkey off his back. I disagree with that. The knock was that Manning couldn't win the big one...he still hasn't. That happens in two weeks. A lot of pundits sound like they're ready coronate the Colts as the winners of the Super Bowl, and while I think that's likely, I also know that in 2001 everyone was ready to coronate what appeared to be a more talented Rams team as the Super Bowl winner. I'm not quite ready to discount Chicago.

The new compelling, yet-not-quite-as-compelling storyline in the NFL. Only because Chicago played earlier in the day yesterday, Lovie Smith became the first black head coach to reach the Super Bowl. With the Colts victory, Dungy became the second black coach to make the big game - one that will be played during the first weekend of February - Black History Month. Somehow appropriate, I think. I will address more on this later, including some important points about professional sports and its roll in the Civil Rights Movement.
A brief note on my conscious choice to not call Dungy and Smith African-American. It is a silly PC term for the overtly sensitive, and not terribly accurate. I had a professor in college, Jenny Shute, who was born and raised in Africa, yet was paler than Bill Belichick. She was arrested and exiled from her home in South Africa for fighting to end apartheid.
While I claim Irish and Italian heritage, in the end I am American. Not European-American, not really Irish-, or Italian-American either (though I do prescribe to those terms for simplicity's sake). But the fact is neither of my parents were born or raised anywhere other than in the United States, and technically, that makes me nothing other than American. We have a need to classify ourselves and to belong to groups, but, unless somebody is trying to offend (and I could get into some very Klan oriented language here to make my point, but won't) being offended about being called black as opposed to African-American is just silly.

Parcells has resigned - with Terrell Owens coming back, is that really a surprise.

JD Drew clarification - I think what you're likely to hear, probably this week, is that Drew was signed for the previously agreed on $70 million. However, what will be downplayed is the medical language/clause that will allow the Sox to get off the hook for a significant portion of that money should Drew's health become an issue.

Happy trails Christopher Trotman Nixon and good luck in Cleveland. Right field won't be quite the same without you...and don't take this the wrong way, I enjoyed watching you play, but realistically, right field hasn't been the same since Dwight Evans headed for Baltimore.

Two weeks from today we enter what I call The Black Time. It is the time between football and baseball when all there is left is basketball and hockey. I don't think basketball has been all that entertaining since about 1994 (however, I did enjoy the finals three years ago between Detroit and Los Angeles) when the game became less about team than it did about finding a star with just a bunch of guys. Hockey...well I never thought much of hockey from a broadcast perspective in spite of playing street hockey for eight seasons growing up. During The Black Time, I will be looking at some of the sports that I believe deserve more attention than they're getting, and speculate on some of the reasons that these sports are struggling.

The Weigh In and poor sportsmanship...

Well, down to 185.5 in the contest - 7.5 pounds overall. And on to the playoffs...

It was one hell of a weekend - and the closest series of contests I can recall. And before I really get into it, let me say that none of the teams looked particularly sharp, but boy was it competitive.

Colts 15, Ravens 6

Neither team looked good on offense and eventually the Ravens just looked tired on defense when they needed to come up with the big stop. On the other hand, one has to wonder A) Where Peyton Manning has been for the playoffs and B) Where their run defense was during the season, because the return of one player should not have an impact on how the rest of the team tackles.

Saints 27, Eagles 24

The Cinderella story came to an end in Philadelphia pretty much when Deuce McAllister dragged the entire Eagles defense into the endzone from five yards out. Sure, the Eagles still had a chance - but when one player just wants it more than the 11 he's dragging...well that's just a statement.
McCallister against Urlacher is going to be compelling football next week.

Bears 27, Seahawks 24

There were times that Seattle's offensive play calling puzzled me, but not as much, when the game was on the line, taking out Grant Wistrom on a third and long in overtime when they needed a pass rush.

And the controversial one...

Patriots 24, Chargers 21

The Patriots did not play well, and they won this game. They were out rushed almost 3 to 1, the Pats had 18 first downs to San Diego's 21, overall New England garnered 25 fewer total yards and lost the time of possession battle. That being said, I'm hearing a lot about how the Chargers gave the game away - and they did make mistakes at crucial moments, however, Roosevelt Colvin's interception of Philip Rivers was not like the interceptions Brady tossed into the chests of the Chargers defenders. Colvin made a highlight reel play to force a turnover. Vrabel strip sacked Philip Rivers. Shawn Merriman was supposed to terrorize Brady all day - he got to him once.
All that said, I do agree with the following from Sports Illustrated's Paul Zimmerman, "Talk about dumb, out-of-control teams. The Chargers lost to the Patriots mainly because New England was more professional, i.e., they didn't play idiot ball, as San Diego did. I don't need to go into the litany of stoopids the Chargers were guilty of, the "attitude" penalties, head butts, bumps, grinds, shoves ... the dropped balls, the fumbles, all of which cost dearly. Simply unprofessional, which was kind of surprising for a team at this level.
"A big thing was made out of some Patriots imitating Shawne Merriman's Lights Out sack dance after the game. Merriman ran down Brady for a zero-yards pursuit sack in the fourth quarter, but aside from that, he was practically invisible. Hey, pal, if you're gonna turn a spotlight on yourself, be ready for its heat as well as its light."
Tomlinson, who by all accounts is one of the classiest players in the league has managed to come off as a petty, and sore loser, but he got really bone-headed yesterday when he made the following comment, "and what message do you want to send our kids?"
So - Tomlinson would condone an 8 year old kid in a peewee game doing a sack dance? Sorry, but that's not really cool. Not to mention that a choreographed sack dance isn't a spontaneous celebration of a big play, it is meant to set a player apart and, no matter what anyone says, is taunting the other team. This doesn't take into account Tomlinson's use of setting an example for the kids as his defense for a teammate who was caught using steroids (and for the Merriman defenders, look up what he was caught using - the likelihood of that substance tainting a supplement that the chances of it tainting the supplement are virtually nil). Great example for the kids there, huh?
Do I condone the Patriots actions? No. But do I have a problem with someone pointing out how classy he is while defending a teammate's dance and refusing to shake hands after a game? Yes. You're football players, not Bob Fosse. You want to dance and not get mocked? Try out for the Met.

Our Stupid Weekend...

As I sit watching the Monday Night game I decided that I would pre-empt my analysis of this past weekend's playoff race to reflect on the stupidity that was professional athletics this past weekend.

In no particular order of stupidity...

Hitting the Chicago papers on the 16th - Tank Johnson, the Chicago defensive tackle who has already had several run ins with the law is likely done in Chicago. The second round pick (47th overall) from the 2004 draft was more active in the Illinois court system than he was on the grid-iron during his time at Soldier Field. This latest incident with his childhood friend and supposed body guard shot and killed (with him reportedly present) is probably the beginning of the end.
It's possible that some team will give him another chance (I'm thinking you Cincinatti), but underachieving nose tackles are a dime a dozen.

Jim Mora the younger...what were you thinking? You're a 40+ year old man coaching a team fighting for its playoff life and you tell a radio station in Seattle that you would if the head coaching job came available at your alma mater, the University of Washington, that you would hope your resume was right at the top of the pile for consideration? And your excuse is that you were kidding around? You are officially on the idiot list.

Terrell Owens spitting in the face, of DeAngelo Hall because he was "getting in my face"? How long have you been playing football? That was completely classless. I can't wait for the time when the winning teams realize that his problems and his divisiveness far outweigh his talent and potential.
I have a hunch Parcells has figured it out, and realizes that if they don't win that ring this year, it's not going to happen next year, not with T.O.

Speaking of classless. How about that Isaiah Thomas and the Knicks. If reports are accurate that Thomas told Carmello Anthony to stay out of the paint about 30 seconds ahead of the flagrant foul by New York's Mardy Collins (who got nine games fewer than Mello), then Thomas, who is also the Knicks general manager, and as such should be held to a higher standard than a coach, needs to be fined and suspended for a significant period.
Additionally, Collins, who isn't even a regular in the Knicks rotation, was put in one other time recently and committed, guess what? A flagrant foul. A Technical. The guy is a thug that only gets playing time when Thomas wants someone taken down hard. Stern missed the boat.
And as for Isaiah - Denver wasn't embarassing you and your Knicks....you're doing it quite well on your own.

The potential playoff impact of Week 15

The brain trust at the NFL has to be overjoyed heading into tonight's game. This weekend features at least twelve games that could have a potential impact on the playoffs. And an argument can be made for the Browns-Ravens, and Dolphins-Bills games. If the Browns can pull the upset, and that's a big if, the game could have a direct impact on playoff seeding. While long shots, both the Bills and 'Phins have played themselves into position to possibly snag a wild-card, but that would be dependent on a lot of things going wrong for the teams ahead of them, and five teams crashing and burning in the last three games - very unlikely.
A month ago it looked like the Bears and Colts were locks for the top seeds in their respective conferences. To date, the Colts have fallen into a tie with Baltimore and behind the Chargers who are hoping to lock up the number seed. Chicago has secured one of the byes in the NFC, but could still find themselves on the road for the Championship game (if they can win their home game) depending on what happens over the next three weekends.

Right now, this is how things stand:

NFC
1. Chicago (11-2) Clinched NFC North
2. New Orleans (9-4) NFC South Leader
3. Dallas (8-5) NFC East Leader
4. Seattle (8-5) NFC West Leader
5. Atlanta (7-6) Wild Card
6. NY Giants (7-6) Wild Card
-----------------------
7. Philadelphia (7-6)
8. Minnesota (6-7)
9. Carolina (6-7)
10. St. Louis (5-8)
11. San Francisco (5-8)
12. Green Bay (5-8)

AFC
1. San Diego (11-2) Clinched AFC West
2. Baltimore (10-3) AFC Central Leader
3. Indianapolis (10-3) AFC South Leader
4. New England (9-4) AFC East Leader
5. Cincinnati (8-5) Wild Card
6. Jacksonville (8-5) Wild Card
-----------------------
7. Denver (7-6)
8. NY Jets (7-6)
9. Kansas City (7-6)
10. Miami (6-7)
11. Tenessee (6-7)
12. Buffalo (6-7)
13. Pittsburgh (6-7)

Currently 13 teams that are not in the playoffs are in position to potentially make it. This translates into a slate that could completely change the look of the playoffs between now and that first game in January. Let's list them in order of importance and impact (randomly attributed by me...deal with it)...

A quick look at the key games and some potential impact...

The Big Game

Cincinnati (8-5) at
Indianapolis (10-3)
Amazingly, the Colts have not managed to wrap up their division, and with the way their defense is playing the team is in danger of hosting only a first round game in the dome. If it weren't for a week 16 tilt against the lowly Texans, I would say that they could possibly be passed in the standings by a Jacksonville team that's beginning to get healthy.
Meanwhile, the NFL's loudest criminal contingent has begun to play their best football of the year in recent weeks and is cementing at the very least, a wild-card spot.
Look for the Bengals to be too much for a floundering Indy team.

The Undercard

Dallas (8-5) at
Atlanta (7-6)
If Dallas loses, they move into a tie for the division lead with the winner of NY-Philly, and are in second by virtue of tie-breakers. Dallas can still land a bye, but would have to move past a New Orleans team that has a weak schedule. Look for Dallas to move closer to locking up the NFC East against an Atlanta squad that's becoming unhealthy at the wrong time.
If, as expected, Atlanta loses, this opens up some serious fighting for the last wild-card spot in the NFC.

Philadelphia (7-6) at
New York Giants (7-6)
Whoever loses this one isn't done, but it certainly makes it harder. Depending on how the chips fall around the NFC, it's feasible that three playoff teams can come out of this division.
The winner here positions itself well for one of the wild-card slots, and possibly to take the division if Dallas falters down the stretch.

Pittsburgh (6-7) at
Carolina (6-7)
The Steelers' chances at the playoffs depend on too many other teams, but Carolina, with a win combined with an Atlanta loss and a loss from either the Giants or Eagles can put themselves right back in the thick of the wild-card hunt.

New York Jets (7-6) at
Minnesota (6-7)
With both teams only a game out of the wild-card, a win combined with one or two losses elsewhere could catapult one of these teams into the playoffs. A loss doesn't kill either, but with only two games to make up ground after this weekend, it might as well.

Denver (7-6) at
Arizona (4-9)
Arizona has a legitimate shot at playing spoiler to the of late struggling Broncos playoff hopes. Even if Denver wins, like the Jets, they will have to leap-frog at least one team ahead of them to get into the second season.

Jacksonville (8-5) at
Tennessee (6-7)
While the Titans have a shot at the playoffs, albeit a slim one, they have a better chance of upsetting the Jaguars bid at making some noise in the playoffs. With a resurgent Titans team, the Jags have a tougher game ahead of them than might have been thought as recently as a month ago.

Kansas City (7-6) at
San Diego (11-2)
San Diego is playing for homefield. Kansas is playing for their lives and the memory of Lamar Hunt. If they can't get it going for this game, then they're not going to get to the playoffs, it's do or die for the Chiefs right now.

Houston (4-9) at
New England (9-4)
If New England had destroyed Detroit, and at least put together a respectable showing on offense against Miami, this game wouldn't even make the list. However, this is a chance to see if the Patriots have made any progress in correcting the offensive issues (turnovers, completions) that will cause an ouster in the playoffs and have been plaguing the team this season.
Should they right the ship and win, they still have a shot at one of the byes, although they would have to leapfrog the Colts and Baltimore to do so. The way the Colts have been playing, that is possible...Baltimore is another story.

San Francisco (5-8) at
Seattle (8-5)
The fact that the 49ers with only 5 wins have not been mathmatically eliminated from the playoffs speaks volumes about the NFC. Seattle could also feasibly lose their remaining three games and win the division at 8-8.
As is, they're only one game behind New Orleans and still have a shot at the remaining bye in the NFC.

Washington (4-9) at
New Orleans (9-4)
With a win and losses by both Dallas and Seattle the Saints will all but lock up the second bye. Should they stumble here, while those teams win, it opens up a dogfight in the NFC over the final weeks of the season.

and

Tampa Bay (3-10) at
Chicago (11-2)
Simply put - if Chicago wins, they sew up homefield advantage through the post season. If they lose, they leave the door open to the Saints in regards to landing that home-field advantage through the championship season.