Cleaning the Junk Drawer, part 2

LaDainian Tomlinson is cooked. Yes, Tomlinson put up respectable numbers, but for the second straight year he broke down at the end of the season and has been the most talented bench warmer in the playoffs.

Each of the last two seasons Tomlinson's yards per rush average has decreased - first by half a yard, and then between this past season and the previous one, a shade under a yard. Tomlinson ran for fewer yards, produced fewer yards from scrimmage and averaged fewer rushing yards per game than at any other time in his career.

Over and above that, Tomlinson might be one of the more overrated running backs...ever. He's a regular season stud, but he's a post season dud.

Consider, for a guy who's supposed to be a game changer, he's come up flat in the big games - in six post-season appearances Tomlinson has averaged 3.6 yards per rush (regular season - 4.4), and only once exceeded 80 yards rushing (123 in a loss to the Patriots). The Chargers are 3-3 in the post season with Tomlinson, but in the team's three wins, Tomlinson has combined to rush for 95 yards (28, 42, and 25) in those three games on 33 carries (2.9 yards per carry). Not exactly an impact player in the NFL's second season.

The current rumor is that Scott Pioli is likely to land the KC position. If that happens, don't be surprised if Josh McDaniels ends up there - or Matt Cassel. It would be kind of ironic if Cassel ends up as the starter for the team that, in essence, launched his pro career, wouldn't it?

I would not be the least bit surprised if all three end up in the same place. The only issue I see is that if it is KC, that Pioli won't want to give up that first round pick because the Chiefs are desperately in need of a stud offensive lineman - unless he believes that the draft is deep enough that he will be able to get someone in the second or third round that can make a difference up front.

What the hell happened to the Celtics in the last two weeks?

I think the American League East is a lot of ifs -

If the Yankees pitching staff stays healthy, they can make the playoffs. Sure, they're likely to have a solid one-two with CC Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang, but AJ Burnett has a history of injury, as does Joba Chamberlain when he starts (that goes back to before he was drafted - it's why the Yankees were able to get him with the 41st pick). If the Yankees have to rely on Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy for a significant number of starts, they should forget about the playoffs in the Bronx.

If Josh Beckett returns to form, and Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka continue to develop the way they have been, then the Sox have the best staff in the East and should make the playoffs.

If the Rays staff - including the bullpen - repeats the year they just had, they should be the favorites, particularly given the signing of Pat Burrell. Burrell is not a superstar, but he is a solid middle of the order (5th, 6th) sort of batter that will knock in about 90 runs and score about 72 runs in a season.

Speaking of the Yankees - kind of offensive that they go out and commit to over $400 million in contracts and then turnaround and tell the City of New York that they need $300 million more to finish the stadium, isn't it?

As good as the Eagles and the Ravens looked this past weekend, I don't think either team will go all the way, although I give the Ravens a better chance than the Eagles. Philly has a tendency to become too one dimensional. The flip side is that I don't trust the Giants without Plaxico Burress - they just haven't been that great without him.

I'm not saying that the best team is going to win the Super Bowl, but if I were to call it, I would say that the likely winner will be whoever is left standing in the Steelers-Ravens game, as long as the winner of that contest comes out healthy. Were I to rank the remaining teams based on their chances, I think I would look at it like this -

1. Steelers
2. Titans
3. Ravens
4. Panthers
5. Giants
6. Eagles
7. Cardinals
8. Chargers

If I had to venture a guess, the winner will be from the top four listed there and that the Giants will not repeat. Just a hunch.

Cleaning out the junk drawer of my mind for the new year

Just some random observations about a variety of things...

First, I want to address the NFL MVP - Peyton Manning got that on reputation alone. He did not deserve it this season as he was as culpable in the Colts record through the first seven games as he was responsible for digging them out of the same hole. A lot of people with the MVP vote claim the Colts would have been horrible without Manning under center, but I don't buy that they would have been any worse than 3-4 through seven games before Manning came back if they had Jim Sorgi taking the snaps.

Consider - Sorgi, for his career, has seen action in 15 games (14 if you don't count the one time in 2006 when he came in to take a knee). In those 14 games, Sorgi is 99 for 156 for 929 yards, 6 touchdowns, 1 interception and a QB Rating of 89.9. As that was a lot of partial games, break that down to five games with an average of 20 completions on 31 attempts, 186 yards, and 1 touchdown per game. Certainly passable and capable of winning three or four games over a seven game season.

There are at least five players that have had a bigger impact on their respective teams - Michael Turner, Matt Ryan, Chad Pennington, Ed Reed, James Harrison all significantly change the equation if they're not on their teams, and it's unlikely that any of their teams make the playoffs without them.

The Falcons were exposed as young and inexperienced in what I thought was one of the more boring playoff games I have ever seen.

I like the way the Red Sox rotation is shaping up, and have a hunch that a lot of people are going to panic because the Sox aren't overspending to get the big, sexy names in free-agency. If this works out the way I think it will, the Sox off-season is going to be compared to the Patriots' 2001 free agent signings. A lot of really solid guys that help make a winner, but aren't the biggest names out there.

How many times does Scott Boras have to publicly screw the pooch before his clients begin to get worried. He was publicly neutered in the last Alex Rodriguez negotiations, blinked in his game of chicken with the Sox during the Daisuke Matsuzaka negotiations, he got lucky in the Mark Texiera sweepstakes in that the Yankees swooped in and pretty much bid against no one, overplayed his hand with both Jason Varitek and Manny Ramirez.

Let's look at Ramirez for a second.

It's well known that Ramirez, likely on the advice of Boras, engineered his exit from Boston in an effort to get out from under his option years. That's not going to sit well with other general managers who will wonder if Ramirez will pull the same stunt on their teams.

Reportedly, Boras told Ramirez that he could get a four year contract for an average of $25 million per year, more than the two option years at $20 million each that the Sox would have had. Since the end of the season Ramirez has received a two-year $45 million offer from the Dodgers (since rescinded), and a three-year incentive-laden deal with a club option for a fourth year from the Giants. I'm guessing the dollars aren't in the right neighborhood based on the following from KPIX in San Fran -

The chances of the Giants signing Ramirez, a 36-year-old left fielder, were unclear. A team spokesperson told CBS 5, "it's not happening."

There was a lot of speculation that Roger Clemens would get a pardon from family friend George W. Bush and in so doing, avoid the legal implications of the federal charges that are likely to stem from the FBI investigation. Looks like charges aren't even going to get filed until after Bush leaves office. Sucks to be Roger.

I look at the Yankees off-season and can't help think that they learned nothing from the Carl Pavano signing. Nor have they learned anything from the history of fat pitchers.

The CC Sabathia signing might work well for them in the regular season for the first year or two, but eight seasons? That's nuts.

Sid Fernandez, who had weight issues, last started more than 20 games at age 29. Former Red Sox reliever Rich "El Guapo/the human zeppelin" Garces was respectable until the age of 30. At 31 he posted a 7.59 ERA and was out of baseball after that season. Once dominant Bartolo Colon had an eight season stretch wherein he pitched fewer than 200 innings only once (188 in 2000) and averaged 32.6 starts per season. When he turned 33 he went away - compiling a total of 35 starts and fewer than 200 combined innings over the final three seasons of his career. Sabathia turns 30 in 2010.

The future is not bright for him.

Congrats to the Cardinals who have finally won a playoff game after a 60+ year absence from the post-season.

I don't want to hear any excuses today regarding the Colts. They were beaten by a depleted 8-8 team - a team without its best running back, their best linebacker, and with their best receiving threat, Antonio Gates, hobbled by a high ankle sprain. The Chargers didn't even play that great a game, twice giving the ball back to the Colts in the red zone while threatening to score. And then the Colts defense imploded during the final drive - that was some of the ugliest play-off football I have ever seen.

On a final note - Matt Cassel is about to cash in on a great season. More power to him. I figure we'll know the status of Tom Brady well before the draft. If Brady is on or ahead of schedule, I expect that Cassel will be packaged for draft picks. If he's not, the Patriots have a salary cap issue to address.

Happy New Year all!

Not in my lifetime

There are a lot of things that I don't think that I will ever see in my lifetime. And I'm not just talking about that Jennifer Aniston-Angelina Jolie buddy flick.

I know that you're never supposed to say never, but, I have a hard time buying that any of the following will happen during my lifetime...

Al Davis put together another Super Bowl contender.

The Ford family will make the Lions a contender, or that the Lions will bring a Lombardi trophy to Ford Field, even as a loaner from another team.

A Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl.

A Super Bowl in a cold weather non-domed stadium (anyone else notice that football is the only sport in which home field/court advantage goes out the window in the championship game).

Mike Vick as a success in the NFL.

Norv Turner coach a team to the Super Bowl as The Man.

AJ Smith GM a Super Bowl winner.

Jose Canseco, Roger Clemens, or Mark McGwire get into the Hall of Fame.

Mike Shanahan win a Super Bowl without John Elway (why is it that the so-called offensive geniuses have struggled to put quality QB's in place...see Brian Billick, Ravens).

Just a few things that popped into my head today.

Elegy and other things...

Well, it was a good run. They teased me into believing again. They came up just short.

So it goes.

Now, after a good season, the Sox turn their attention to off-season concerns.

Congratulations to Tampa, you earned it. Good luck in the next round.

Over on the Grid-iron...

Does anyone else think that somewhere Drew Bledsoe was watching the Dallas game yesterday with the following thought running through his head - "frickin' pansy. Yo, dough-boy, it's a frickin' pinky - I led the Patriots to two come from behind victories with a god-damned screw sticking out of my index finger. Jesus. They benched me for that wuss?"

The cracks are beginning to appear in Dallas - TO whining, Romo wussing, Pacman fighting, Jerry Jones trading the farm for a horse.

They now stand at 4-3 with only to pushovers, San Francisco and Seattle, left on their schedule. They are behind both New York and Washington in their division, and could, by the time they reach their bye easily be 4-5 and would likely need to go 6-1 over the remaining games just to get into the playoffs. With games against the Redskins, Steelers, Giants, Ravens, and Eagles, I think that's highly unlikely.

Speaking of the Giants, I admit, it looks like I was wrong about them, as I was about the Eagles. I thought the Eagles would be better and the Giants worse. The Giants have responded to the challenge of defending their title this year.

Right now Buffalo is the best team in the AFC East.

How weird is this after the first eight years of the decade - the Chargers, Colts, Jaguars and the Patriots who have combined for 17 of a total 32 possible playoff appearances over the last eight seasons (12 of those between the Patriots and Colts alone who are currently second and third in their divisions and a combined 6-5). The only current division leader/wild card contestant in the AFC that has regularly been at the top of their game along with the aforementioned teams is Pittsburgh at 5-1.

Welcome to Bizzaro-world, NFL style.

With any luck, the Pats go to 4-2 tonight, but I have to honestly say, I don't have any confidence that the Pats defense is going to be able to shut down Denver's high powered attack. This is a New England team that's still searching for its identity since the loss of its offensive leader.

It would be nice if tonight was the night the defense found their stride.

Changing expectations

Realistically, it doesn't behoove anyone to make snap decisions based on the first two weeks, but some pretty significant stuff has happened in the NFL's first two weeks - things with season-long implications. Some of the things even predate week one...

Shawn Merriman - let's face a couple of basic facts here...Merriman changes the complexion of the Chargers defense, and so far that defense hasn't been very good. Merriman avoided doctor recommendations to get his knee operated on at the end of last season, choosing instead to rest the knee. Then, once again ignoring the doctors who told him not to play on the screwed up ligaments, chose to play in the first game of the season. With a sub-par Merriman in game one and with his understudy in game two, the Chargers have given up 65 points through the first two games - the most in the AFC. Fourteen more than Miami, 25 more than Kansas City. The only teams that have given up more? The Lions (82), Rams (79), and Seahawks (67). Neither the Lions nor the Rams were expected to compete by anybody, and people are having serious doubts around now about Seattle.

Sure, general manager AJ Smith said all the right things about Merriman's understudy, intimating that they expected no drop off in play, but if that player were really as good as Merriman, wouldn't he be starting opposite Merriman, not playing behind him? If the Chargers cannot get it together on defense, they will be watching the playoffs from their living rooms, not from the sidelines. Period.

Vince Young - Young is as much an emotional and mental description as it is his name. I give the Titans a better chance with Kerry Collins guiding the attack than Vince Young. I don't really believe that Young beat him out in camp so much as the team was committed to going with their first round draft pick. I've said this before about Young and I will say it again - he's a talented athlete, but a mediocre quarterback. He's not committed to the game and that's the last sort of person you want leading your team in a sport where people are expected to sacrifice their bodies. To paraphrase Bull Durham, he has a million dollar arm, but a ten cent head.

My guess is that Young is the second coming of Todd Marinovich, although Akili Smith might be a better comparison. Akili Smith vaulted into the first round of the draft when he had a great senior season in college. Before that, he was on no one's radar. What people forget about Young is that he wasn't even in the discussion in regards to the top of the draft until Texas qualified for the Bowl game, and wasn't mentioned as a top five pick until their Bowl win.

I suspect that when his contract ends, he either goes away completely, or bounces around the league as a back-up for a couple of seasons before fading away.

Jeff Saturday - I'm condensing this one. Saturday, the Colt's long-time center, is one of...well, most of the Colts starting line which is injured. The Colts have struggled mightily on offense through the first couple of weekends without their vaunted line. Fortunately for the Colts, no one is looking like they're ready to just take control of the division.

Osi Umenyiora - So far the pre-season loss of Umenyiora for the season hasn't affected the Giants on defense, but his loss has a definitive impact on the team's depth along the defensive line, one of the team's definitive strengths and a reason why they won last year's Super Bowl. It might never come back to bite them as long as the team remains reasonably healthy along the defensive line. Not unrealistic. And right now this team has the best defense in the NFC East. Given that and their running game, they will compete for the playoffs.

Yes, I predicted that the Eagles and Cowboys to finish ahead of New York, but I also said I wouldn't be surprised if the Giants ended up at the top of the heap at the end of the season. With Umenyiora in the line-up the team can afford injuries to the likes of Justin Tuck. Without Osi, the Giants have to hope that the back-ups are up to snuff - otherwise that changes the landscape in the East. (My prediction assumes that an injury will happen).

Tom Brady - This injury has changed two things...the Pats offensive philosophy (2001 revival on our hands here), and the Patriots as Super Bowl favorites. Yes, this makes life harder for the Pats, but all the favorites in the AFC are struggling early while the Pats work their way through a cupcake schedule that is likely to see them go into their bye at 3-0, and meet up with the Colts with anything from a 5-2 to a 7-0 record. Not unrealistic given the fact that the prolific Denver offense has not yet been challenged by a quality defense and that neither the Chargers nor the Broncos has been able to stop anyone.

Can Matt Cassel take the team all the way? That's the great unknown in regards to the Patriots.

Seattle's receiving corps - Put simply, Seattle has lost their top receivers. Their offense has been the third worst in the NFC. Coupled with the team's defensive problems, Seattle could well be screwed.

That Deion Branch trade/signing is looking pretty weak now, isn't it?

While the jury is still out on Brandon Meriweather, the player the Pats got, in essence for trading Branch to Seattle, Branch himself has not posted the numbers of the top receiver he believed himself to be. Currently, Branch is missing games due to a knee injury, the same Branch that the Seahawks desperately need right now. The same Branch who has started 16 games only once in his career.

Am I the only one who saw this coming?

So begins LAB

Life After Brady...at least for this season.

Mike Greenburg said something this morning that's probably spot on - if Brady started against the Jets the Pats would very likely have put an absolute beat down on Gang Green. That said, I was very happy with Matt Cassel's performance in yesterday's game. He was solid - hell, he was even Brady-esque to an extent.

For those that don't know, or don't get it, Cassel's numbers yesterday were almost identical to Brady's first NFL start. Brady's line against the Colts in his first NFL start - 13-23-168 with no touchdowns or interceptions and two rushing yards. Cassel - 16-23-165 with no touchdowns or interceptions and seven rushing yards.

The Pats won both games.

Cassel has at least two more games to get his feet wet against competition like the Dolphins and 49ers before facing San Diego. Although, if San Diego doesn't get their act together, the first tough defense that Cassel will face is Indy's in the eighth game of the season. And, quite frankly, if Indy's offense doesn't get it together, their defense might be a little worn out by game eight.

San Diego, by the way, has given up an average of 32.5 points per game through the first two games. Miami, the Pats next opponent, has had a better defense than the Chargers, giving up 25.5 per game, then San Fran at 26.5.

Sure, the Pats play Denver who has been prolific, scoring 80 points in two games, but that's been against the aforementioned Chargers and a Raiders team that's expected to be pretty bad.

The hardest games for Cassel going forward are likely to be Denver (if the team gets into a shoot out, it could be problematic), the Colts, Bills (twice), Steelers, and Cardinals. Ten and six is certainly possible, and I don't think 12-4 is unrealistic. The Pats could, realistically, enter the playoffs as the number one seed (although they could just as easily be the number four).

A few other thoughts -

Both Denver and the Colts benefited from some blown calls right down by the goal line. There will be a lot of ranting about that from San Diego fans and from Vikings fans.

If the refs get the call right on the goal line on that third down play, it's likely that the Colts settle for a field goal given Manning's knee and the time left to play in the game. That's at least a seven point swing, as the Colts don't line-up for the field goal in the final seconds.

San Diego, of course, also then has the ball and closes the game out with 30 seconds to go.

The flip side of both of these - better coaching, better execution and neither the Vikings nor the Chargers are in a position to get screwed by a bad call. The San Diego defense has been brutally bad through the first two weeks, as has the Vikings offense.

Bad calls happen every week in the NFL, sometimes those calls threaten to change the course of a game. Good teams either take advantage of those things (the Colts), or overcome them.

As I used to tell the kids when I still coached, the refs don't see everything, and if we're the subject of bad calls, then so is the other team - get over it and go out and play the game.

Later this week, I'm going to talk about some of the potential season changing things that have happened in the first two games of the season.

Sizing up the AFC West

Welcome to my sizing up of the NFL before the start of the 2008 season. The following is how I see the quality of the teams stacking up, and the order in which I see the teams finishing. Any of the teams could finish better or worse than what I have listed here, and my first look will be at the AFC West.

4. Raiders - With the addition of running back Darren McFadden, the Raiders are better than they were a year ago. How much better remains to be seen. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced that JaMarcus Russell is going to fare any better in the pros than Michael Vick did. His high draft status was predicated pretty much on one strong season in college. The last team that did that was the Bengals when they drafted Akili Smith in the first round. I think they inch their way to a six win season.

3. Chiefs - I don't really believe that the Chiefs are better than their brethren by the Bay, or that Brody Croyle is going to be any better than Russell will be. Honestly, I think the two teams will battle it out for a spot in the West's basement. While I'm thinking six wins from the Chiefs, I wouldn't be surprised at a repeat of the team's four win 2007 campaign.

2. Broncos - There's some talent on this team, but I've never been as convinced of Mike Shanahan's genius as he or Denver fans have been. He's made some horrible personnel decisions, including the drafting of Maurice Clarett, and for an offensive genius, he's not exactly been able to get the most out of his quarterbacks. I think this team is looking at .500, 9-7 tops.

1. Chargers - San Diego is still the class of the West. They have the best defense and the best running back. Unfortunately their quarterback took a big step backwards last year, their running back likes to look for excuses outside of his team for why they lose, and I still don't have confidence that Norv Turner is the coach to get this team to the promised land. There were whispers of infighting and players not completely committed to Turner's system last season, and the team won fewer games. They will make the playoffs, likely at ten wins, but they will not get the bye.

Between a rock and a hard case

Football players sacrifice their bodies for a lot of reasons. For many it's the large salaries, for some it's the love of the game, and for others it's the glory that a championship brings. They sacrifice their health and well being. They put a lot on the line.

They are professional sports' tough guys (face it, hockey players are tougher, but that's only because they're certifiably insane - it' not the same thing as just being tough).

Players garner reputations for toughness and durability. Brett Favre has played in every game since he got his first start...in a leather helmet. At least it feels like that's when he got his first start. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning also have started every game since starting - in spite of being banged up. Drew Bledsoe won consecutive games with a pin holding together the tip of his index finger on his throwing hand (and he wasn't leading those comebacks by handing the ball off). He even tried to come back into the now famous Jets game after shearing an artery in his chest (sure, he wasn't in his right mind, but you get the point).

Hall-of-Fame Rams defensive end Jack Youngblood famously played in the NFC Championship game and subsequently Super Bowl XIV with a stress fracture in his left leg. Lawrence Taylor and Emmitt Smith were both major factors in playoff games for their respective teams while each played with a separated shoulder. Terrell Davis famously suffers from debilitating migraines, and had one during Super Bowl XXXII. According to Davis it was so bad that he had trouble seeing. It didn't stop him from lining up, if for nothing else, as a decoy in Denver's backfield.

Recently Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers, both listed as questionable and game-time decisions for the Chargers' loss to the Patriots in this past weekend's AFC Championship game, toughed out the game in the hopes of landing that Super Bowl berth.

Why? Because opportunities to get to the Super Bowl are rare. Many players never get there. Half the teams in the NFL have never won a Super Bowl. Eleven teams account for 35 of the 41 titles. Approximately 18 percent of the league's teams haven't even played in the game.

Dan Marino lost in the big game in his rookie year, and then never got back...in 17 seasons. Linebacker Clay Matthews played for 19 seasons and never made it. Neither did quarterback Vinny Testaverde in his 21 seasons.

As Ron Jaworski is fond of noting - winning in the NFL is hard.

It's why so many of these players play hurt. They believe they give their team the best chance of winning.

Which brings us to LaDainian Tomlinson.

Tomlinson is catching a lot of flack for being on the sideline while his team put up field goal after field goal in Sunday's match-up with the Patriots. He might be as injured as he is now claiming, however, that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve to be called out by the former players that are now part of the entertainment machine that is sports journalism (and when your toughness is questioned by Deion Sanders...well that's just sad).

Tomlinson is defending himself, saying he was no better than 50 percent and that he felt that the healthy duo of Michael Turner and Darren Sproles gave the Chargers the best chance to win. He can defend himself in this manner all he wants - but he dug himself this hole. HE told the team doctors in the days leading up to the game that he was well enough to be taken off of the injury report. HE told the press that he was 90 percent in the days leading up to the game. So, either HE lied to the doctors, press, and San Diego fans in the days leading up to the game, or HE's lying now in order to deflect criticism.

Either way, he deserves to be questioned...deserves to take the hit, so to speak - whether for his toughness, or for unrealistically raising the expectations of the San Diego fans and teammates.

One thing's for sure - it appears that it would have taken being in a wheelchair or on crutches to keep his injured teammates off the field. And, hell, Rivers had [arthroscopic] knee surgery surgery six days before the game.

Tomlinson best get used to being criticized for this one, because it's not going to stop.

Dante's Inferno

The New England Patriots are Super Bowl bound.

On an evening when the Patriots were facing the league's seventh ranked rushing attack, being led by uber-back-up Michael Turner, it was the Patriots running game that ran roughshod. The Chargers rushed for 104 yards.

The much maligned Laurence Maroney rushed for 122, and the team for 149. In the second half, after Tom Brady struggled, the Pats turned to a short passing game featuring Kevin Faulk and their running game. Over 100 of Maroney's yards came in the second half.

In essence, they put the game in the hands of Dante Scarnecchia's boys. The 38-year offensive line coach, and assistant head coach is the team's longest tenured coach, and has cobbled together lines that got the team to the Super Bowl with street free-agents, and no-names like Russ Hochstein and Brandon Gorin.

His offensive line took over the game, mauling the vaunted Chargers defensive line. Stephen Neal and Logan Mankins absolutely manhandled defenders at the point of attack, the Seans were effectively eliminated by Matt Light and Nick Kazcur while Dan Koppen neutralized the big body in the middle.

This game was won in the trenches.

And Maroney didn't waste the gift, punishing any defender daring to make a tackle - once knocking one five yards down field and out of bounds.

Welcome to Dante's Inferno. It won't get any easier for whoever the opponent is in Arizona.

Oh...and by the way....

Eat it Mercury.

Much ado...and at least one answer

There's a lot being made of the Giants 9 game road winning streak going into Green Bay, and not to take anything away from the Giants who have been road warriors this season, but the Packers haven't been slouches at home, going into this game with an 8-1 record at Lambeau this season.

How about this statistic for home field advantage - the Patriots have won 13 straight at the Razor, last losing to the Jets over 14 months ago. Also, the team is undefeated in Championship games at Foxborough, and undefeated in post-season games held in Massachusetts in sub-freezing temperatures since Bill Belichick took over the team.

The hosting teams have four Super Bowl rings in five appearances and are 6-2 in this round of the playoffs, the second loss was by Tom Brady in last season's match-up in Indianapolis. Brady is 3-0 in championship games held in Foxborough.

As for the answer...

Teresa posed a question to me - has the AFC East hosted the best and worst teams in the NFL before this season? Yes. The first time the East held the dubious distinction was in 1984 when the Dolphins and a rookie Dan Marino led the league with a 14-2 record while the Buffalo Bills brought up the rear with a 2-14 record.

All of this has inspired the final note...a note on futility -

The Arizona Cardinals, the longest active franchise in professional football - actually predating the league currently known NFL - hasn't won a championship since 1947. The team was founded in 1899 under the name the Morgan Athletic Club on the South Side of Chicago. It later became the Racine (Street) Cardinals, then the Chicago Cardinals, St. Louis Cardinals, Phoenix Cardinals, and finally the Arizona Cardinals.

In 108 years this team has won two championships, an average of one every 54 years. Their last title was 20 years before the Super Bowl.

This team did Chicagoans a favor by moving from the Windy City.

The teams that haven't even made it to the Super Bowl include the Browns, Cardinals, Lions, Saints, Texans and Jaguars. As far as opportunities - All but the Texans and Jaguars were in existence at the beginning of the Super Bowl Era (technically the Saints for the second). The Texans and the Jags have been around for, combined, less than 20 Super Bowls (the Jags first year was 1995, the Texans 2002).

Then there are those who have made it to the big game only to lose - Eagles, Bills, Vikings, Oilers/Titans, Bengals, Chargers, Falcons, Panthers, and Seahawks. Unless the Chargers can get past the Patriots tomorrow, it means that the winner of this Super Bowl will come from the pool of 16 winners of the 41 previous Super Bowls.

Of the three active teams in the playoffs that previously won, all are multiple winners - the Giants with two (1986, 1990), the Packers with three (1967, 1968, 1996), and the Patriots with three (2001, 2003, 2004). Other multiple winners include with five each - the Steelers, 49ers, and Cowboys; with three are the Raiders and Redskins; and with two are the Dolphins, Colts, and Broncos.

Of the 41 Super Bowls already played, 11 teams account for 35 of the titles - if you're wondering why the math is off, I think it's because of the whole affair between the Cleveland and Baltimore with the Browns' move and subsequent name change, however, I might just be missing a team in there.

Either way, it's likely that a franchise that has already won a Super Bowl will be getting fitted for another set of rings come February.

Question and Answer: Charger stupidity

Why is Igor always the sidekick? He's got Abby Normal's brain.

Igor Olshansky (and Shawn Merriman) looks like looks to be joining the inimitabel ranks of players like former Eagle Freddie Mitchell, or current Steeler Anthony Smith. Olshansky asked reporters after the Chargers win over the Colts, "the Patriots? Who are they?" Then went on to talk trash about the Pats.

Other than run his mouth, what has Olshansky done in the league? An average of 33 tackles per year and 1.75 sacks and no forced turnovers for his first three seasons.

Like Freddie Mitchell, who ran his mouth before the Super Bowl between the Patriots and Eagles, and then did nothing, Olshansky is a first day draft pick - Mitchell was first round, Olshansky second.

Maybe it's because Olshansky is coming off a career year in his fourth year with highs in tackles (47, 33 solo), sacks (3.5), and forced turnovers for the first time in his career (one interception, 3 forced fumbles). The strongest recommendation for Olshansky is the Int and three forced fumbles. Other than that, not exactly a distinguished season.

And certainly not a distinguished career.

To put Olshansky's career into perspective - Olshansky has been listed as a starter on the Chargers Web site since his rookie year. Jarvis Green, a second day pick (4th round) has been coming off the bench for the Patriots since his. Through his first three seasons, in limited action, Green averaged 20 tackles, 2.75 sacks, and 1 pass defended per year, to go with two forced fumbles.

For my money, that means that the Chargers defensive end, one that wouldn't be able to beat out Green to play back-up on the Patriots, is talking trash.

Smooth move.

Weekend observations

Mister Freeze...

I love games played in the snow. I loved 'em when I played in high school. I loved 'em when I coached. I love watching them.

I have an appreciation for the difficulty that's added by playing on a slick, hard field - when the cold hurts your hands, and the idea of hitting one's opponent can become distasteful, because it inflicts as much pain on the tackler as the tackled. The game becomes a contest of wills.

That game in Green Bay was a thing of beauty. After a shaky start, putting the ball on the ground twice, undrafted free-agent running back Ryan Grant imposed his will on the Seahawks, accounting for close to half of the Pack's 408 total yards (201).

As much as Brett Favre's arm got the Pack to the game, Grant's legs were responsible for getting them through the game.

Punched in the Mouth

The Jaguars were the team that was supposed to give the Patriots fits.

Their top ranked (AFC) running game was supposed to keep Tom Brady on the sideline, and take advantage of the Patriots AARP members manning the linebacker position. They were supposed to stuff the run, take away Randy Moss and make the Patriots win with Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, and Ben Watson.

Instead, Laurence Maroney became the Beast from the AFC East, rushing for more yardage (122) than the entire Jaguars team combined (80) and more combined yardage (162) than the Chargers' one-two punch of Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor combined (129).

Even as a Pats fan, had anyone told me that Maroney would have almost as much yardage on the ground as the Jags backs had combined, I would have scoffed. Hell...combined yardage for the Pats runners v. the Jags? 207 to 129. And that was the place on offense that the Jags were supposed to have a distinct advantage.

I guess as the saying goes, on any given Sunday...

Upset Sunday...

I'm not going to dwell on the early game. The Colts played poorly on defense, struggling to beat a Chargers team that was lining up players by the end of the game that make one think more of a fourth pre-season game than of a playoff game. And the Chargers won in spite of some mind-numbingly, bone-jarringly stupid play calling on offense.

Even with the win, that game gave me no confidence that Norv Turner can bring this team a championship. The only reason they got out of Indy alive is that the Chargers defense was playing out of their collective minds down the stretch.

Texas Toast (or, The Mouths that Roared)...

Does anyone out there remember the "I love you, man," Bud Light commercials? Is it just me, or is that how Terrell Owens seemed in his postgame press conference? I can just hear Tony Romo right now..."No TO, you can't have any of my Bud Light...now go eat your popcorn."

Sincerity is not that man's forte. His defense of Tony Romo, while accurate (the Giants in the second half were beating the daylights out of Romo because the line just couldn't stop wave after wave of blue-jersied defenders), just came off as disingenuous.

And of course, the Dallas receivers just can't put their money where their exceedingly large mouths are...

Take, for instance, this tidbit from the postgame of their October match-up with the Patriots -

"If they make it to Arizona, we will see them again. Seriously, I'm not backing down from that statement," receiver Patrick Crayton said Monday, a day after a 48-27 loss to the Patriots.
Terrell Owens wasn't in the locker room Monday, but said after the game, "We'll see them down the road."

I guess they'll be in the stands?

Or how about TO's line that he'd be playing at a high level in this past Sunday's game during his interview with Deion Sanders? Four catches for 49 yards and one touchdown. During the regular season he averaged 5.4 catches per game for 90.3 yards per game. I wonder how TO defines a "high level."

Texas Toast, part II...

Well, it already appears that Roger Clemens and his handlers are backing off providing any actual denials under oath. According to reports, the Rocket and his legal team won't commit to providing congress with a deposition before the hearing, with his lawyer, Rusty Hardin, claiming that it could interfere with civil case.

The implication here is that testifying under oath to congress wouldn't, or at least, that's what Hardin would have you believe. Hardin from the AP report -

"There has been absolutely no change in Roger's willingness and indeed desire to testify under oath before Congress in a public hearing at a date of the Oversight Committee's choosing," Hardin said in a statement. "Any suggestion that he or we are having any second thoughts about that is absolutely false. All other pre-appearance issues and scheduling we will discuss privately with the committee and do not think it is appropriate to discuss those matters publicly."

A deposition is testimony, under oath (which is why it's admissible as evidence in a court case). As such, what's the issue?

According to legal experts on ESPN, and cited in other reports, a deposition would give the Committee the opportunity to investigate Clemens' defense, and to prepare specific questions in order to discredit Clemens' defense, or to formulate specific questions to ask McNamee, who appears willing to tell the Committee everything.

Hardin can spin this anyway he likes, but it's just one more chink in Clemens' so called defense.

You are what you are

Those were the words of Bill Parcells.

He was once asked about his team. The gist of the question was along the lines of "do you think your team is better than its record," or "do you feel like you got away with one?" Or some other such inquiry. His message - if your team is 8-8, then you're 8-8...no matter how much better you might try to make others believe you are.

The Chargers are competing for the AFC Championship.

The Patriots are 17-0 (that number sound familiar '72 'Phins?...'Cause in every math class I was ever in, 19 is greater than 17...get over it).

The Colts are officially no longer the defending Super Bowl champs - the defense of their title officially ended on the carpet at the RCA Dome, dropping Peyton Manning's home playoff record to an uninspired 4-3.

The Seahawks are not a winter weather team. The Packers are.

Soon, I'll know what the Cowboys are and what the Giants are.

As the Divisional Round is just hours from wrapping up, with match-ups getting set for next week's Conference Championship, I, as a Patriots fan, am curious to see how the injury report is going to read for the Chargers. A lot of bodies were left on the field, as the Chargers closed out the Colts without Philip Rivers or LaDanian Tomlinson lining up.

More amazing? That the Chargers won in spite of some poor offensive calls by Norv Turner. With approximately a minute and a half left on the clock, third and five, with the Colts D stacked against the run, Turner called for a run in the middle. Colts got the ball back with 90 seconds on the clock and one timeout.

Fortunately, it didn't come back to haunt the Chargers as San Diego's defense came up big - hitting Reggie Wayne so hard on third and long that it forced the Colts to burn the timeout due to an injury stoppage.

The Usual Suspects

As we near playoff time, now is our opportunity to take a gander at this year's AFC contenders through a cinematic eye...and without further ado, in the words of Captain Louis Renault, "Major Strasser has been shot. Round up the usual suspects..."

Dave Kujan, US Customs - Roger Goodell took Verbal into his office early on. Now the rest of the league is paying.

Roger "Verbal" Kint/Keyser Soze - Who is the Grey Hoodie? He was supposed to be a Jets coach. Some say his father was a Navy man. Nobody believed he was real. Nobody ever saw him smile or knew anybody that ever survived one of his press conferences, but to hear Kobayashi tell it, anybody could have played well for the Hoodie. You never knew. That was his power. The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he could win with no one. And poof. With real talent, just like that, he's gone 15-0.

Picture if you will, the Patriots running game limping along like Verbal until the end of the season when it slowly rights itself.

Does all of this make Kobayashi out of Scott Pioli?

Dean Keaton - The Colts...[after finding Fenster's body] "It's not payback! It's precaution. You won't payback, you wanna run, I don't care! I'm not doing this for Fenster, I'm not doing it for you... I'm doing it for me. I'm gonna finish this thing. This Kobayashi bastard is not gonna stand on me!" This team is the one that is most likely to give the Pats a run for their money in the post season. Keaton was the man with the plan to take it to the big man.

Michael McManus - The Steelers...Mouthy and with an attitude, McManus would just as soon shoot you as listen to anything you have to say
McManus: What am I supposed to do with that?
[McManus throws bag of heroin at Redfoot. Redfoot catches it]
Redfoot the Fence: I don't know, feed it to the gimp. Ease his pain; I don't know what that is.
[Redfoot throws bag at Verbal]
McManus: What do you mean you don't know?
[Keaton lays a hand on McManus]
Keaton: Shut up.
Redfoot the Fence: I don't know. I got thrown this job by some lawyer.
Keaton: Yeah? Who?
Redfoot the Fence: I don't know. Some limey. He's a middleman for someone, OK? He doesn't say, I don't ask.
McManus: You're full of shit.
Redfoot the Fence: Fuck you.
McManus: Fuck you.
Keaton: Listen to me. We want to meet him. OK?
Redfoot the Fence: That's funny. He called me last night, he says he wants to meet you guys.
Keaton: OK. We'll meet him. Good. Do that. No problem. Let's go.
[Keaton turns around, ready to leave. McManus grabs him]
McManus: I don't like it, Dean. I don't like it. Wait a minute. One more thing, tough guy. Any more surprises, and I'm gonna kill you.
Redfoot the Fence: You're such a tough guy, McManus. Do me a favour, right. Get the fuck off my dick.
[Redfoot flicks his cigarette butt at McManus and it lands on McManus's eye]
McManus: Fuck!
[McManus lunges at him in rage and has to be restrained by Keaton]
Redfoot the Fence: Put a leash on that puppy. You know, it's an awful shame about Saul gettin' whacked. Cops'll be looking for the guys who did it. Sooner or later they're gonna come around asking me. You have a sweet night, ladies.

Fred Fenster - The Chargers...Fenster's been there before, and tries to act like he's cleaner than he really is...that's what you get with a team that drafts an admitted steroid user, and a player who is called classy by many, but continues to whine about other teams like a sore loser.
Fenster: You do some time, they never let you go. You know. They treat you like a criminal. I'm not a criminal.
Hockney: You are a criminal.
Fenster: Now why'd you got to go and do that? (I'm) trying to make a point.

Todd Hockney - The Jaguars, the AFC's loose cannon. They'll blow you up if you let them, and they're not going to let anything intimidate them. They've been there and done that.
Interrogation Cop: I can put you in Queens on the night of the hijacking.
Hockney: Really? I live in Queens, did you put that together yourself, Einstein? Got a team of monkeys working around the clock on this?

The wheat from the chaff

After a weekend that saw weather play a significant factor in several games for playoff bound teams, and a whole lot of wild-card eliminations, there are a number of things that can be taken from the games played from Thursday through yesterday. Sorry guys, but tonight's tilt has no bearing on the post-season (unless Chicago somehow upsets Minnesota - which I have a hard time seeing).

Here are some of my thoughts.

The Patriots (contenders) - They played a different type of game yesterday in the bad weather, pounding the Jets and winning the battles in the trenches. This led to a solid running game by the team that included 104 yards on 26 carries (4 yard per carry average) by the often maligned Laurence Maroney.

While good to see them move the ball on the ground, it was done against a moribund Jets rush defense that is currently ranked 30th in the league giving up an average of 141 yards per game. That average lowered with the Patriots 131 net yards from scrimmage yesterday. So, as nice as it was to see the Patriots pound the ball on the ground, they were still below what is average for this team to give up.

I like that Maroney runs hard, but I have to question his vision...or maybe it's just the coaching instructions he receives. I like that he seldom takes negative yards, but he often runs into clogged lanes when there are openings elsewhere. That won't cut it in the post-season against better run defenses than the Pats faced yesterday.

The Colts (contenders) - After struggling mightily after their mid-season loss to the Pats, Indy seems to have collected itself and managed to right the ship, clinching their division and the other AFC bye with their win over the Raiders (the best Jacksonville could do is tie their record, but Indy has the tie-breakers).

This Colts team appears built for bed weather better than team of the past, with a greater reliance on the run - although, it's not as if they lacked quality running backs in the past, it hasn't helped them in bad weather, and the Colts won't be playing in truly bad weather until they possibly rematch against the Patriots at Gillette.

Also, the fact that even depleted the Colts should have destroyed the Raiders should be some cause for concern.

The Jaguars (contenders) - They went to Pittsburgh and handed the Steelers their helmets in decidedly un-Jacksonvillian weather. This team could be very dangerous to anyone in the playoffs. If there was one team that could put together three road wins to get to Arizona, these are the guys.

The Steelers (pretenders) - See the Jaguars. Really, unless this team fixes what is ailing them, which seems to be the defense, they might be on the road to Cleveland or San Diego the first weekend of the playoffs, and they're not playing like a team that can win three in a row on the road. Hell, they've only won two of the six road games they have already played. Sure, the final two are against the Rams (3-11), and Ravens (4-10), but they lost on the road to the Jets (3-11), Cardinals (6-8), and Broncos (6-8).

The Chargers (pretenders) - Yes, they are playing better than they did early in the season, and yes they demolished the Lions 51-14, but they still have Norv Turner calling the shots and their only wins against winning teams were at home against Indy after they were beat up by New England, and at Tennessee. With the exception of their win against the Colts, they have lost to every other playoff contender they have faced - New England, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Jacksonville - by an average of 14 points per game.

The Browns (pretenders) - Cleveland is one of the great NFL stories this year. With games left against the Bengals and the 49ers, and the Steelers struggling, the Browns could go from worst to first with the potential of an 11 win season - a far cry from the 4-12 fourth place 2006 campaign (if Romeo Crennel isn't a coach of the year candidate, then I don't know how they're defining the award).

As great a story as this is for Cleveland, the fact remains that the Browns defense is 29th overall, and that doesn't get you far in the playoffs.

I'll deal with the NFC contenders/pretenders later in the week.

Other thoughts on the weekend -

Tony Romo's thumb injury and Terrell Owens suddenly playing like...well Terrell Owens (short arming, giving up on routes, not hustling on turnovers) could cost the Cowboys home-field in the playoffs, and any real hope at a Super Bowl berth.

Speaking of issues from Cowboys/Eagles - Brian Westbrook might have made one of the most heads up plays I have ever seen in the NFL when he decided to forgo the touchdown and sat down at the Cowboys one yard line with just over two minutes to play. The move allowed the Eagles to run out the clock. Had Westbrook run the ball in, the Cowboys would have gotten the ball back at the two minute warning, down by 11 - plenty of time to score and try an on-sides kick. It really was a thing of beauty.

Dick Jauron has done a great job with Buffalo this season, keeping the Bills in the playoff hunt until their loss to the Browns yesterday. Like Crennel, he will be a candidate for coach of the year.

After Brian Billick's spitting the bit against the formerly winless Dolphins, one has to wonder if the Ravens braintrust is regretting that extension they granted to Billick. To not try to punch it in and go for the win on the half-yard line against a team like the Dolphins who haven't stopped anyone all year is just unjustifiable.

Caveat Emptor

Buyer beware.

Everyone has something to sell. Everyone. Me? I'm trying to sell the idea that I might indeed have a clue as to what I'm writing about...not everyone buys, particularly not my wife.

At least retail is honest about it. For the rest of us...well, let's just say you have to pay closer attention to what's being sold...

Let's go through some of the people and groups making sales pitches out there -

Scott Boras/Alex Rodriguez - A-Rod is the car that Boras is trying to sell. He's like a Jaguar- a sleek, pretty bauble of a car with a 12 cylinder engine that has a tendency to crap out on you at the worst possible moment. In 2004 when the Yankees needed a $30 million bat to save them from Mo Rivera's struggles, A-Rod disappeared like J.D. Salinger from the public eye.

Buyers need to beware of the slick, used-car salesman Boras, and his shiny toy of a product, A-Rod. Consider - even in a (contract) year in which A-Rod set career highs in RBI's (156), OBP (.422), and slugging (.645), hit the second most homers (54), and third highest batting average (.314), Boras is going out of his way to get potential buyers to NOT look at his client's post-season failings in that same career year - in a year in which A-Rod led the league in RBI's, he knocked in one in this year's post season.

So during a season in which A-Rod averaged an RBI per every 3.7 at bats, he had one in 15 during the postseason. Even adding in the 8 he had during the 2004 playoffs, this is what he has done in baseball's second season since then - 9 RBI's in 94 at bats, or one for every 10.4 at bats. For his career he has knocked in a run for every 4.9 at bats in the regular season, that has dropped off to one for every 8.6 at bats in the postseason, a number that has gotten progressively worse with each passing season.

This doesn't include the following facts that I have mentioned in other posts - for the first three seasons after A-Rod left Seattle, the team averaged in the vicinity of 10 more wins per season; after he left Texas, they averaged eight more wins per season; the Yankees have average almost four fewer per season, decreasing from 111 wins per year to 94 this year. And, here's the kicker, he has failed to help any team he has been on advance to the World Series. Buyer beware.

The first half of the Patriots schedule - What they are trying to sell? Professional football. How? By complaining that the Patriots are doing things they shouldn't be...like scoring a lot. The people who need to beware? The fan-bases of the Jets, Dolphins, Cowboys, Chargers, Bills, Bengals, Redskins and Browns. Really, the fans of the Cowboys, Jets, Dolphins, and Redskins in particular.

Those teams, those four mentioned at the bottom of that last paragraph, were the ones that started the complaints of how the Patriots are playing offense this year (well, the Jets complained about something else, and maybe they should be more worried about what's happening on the field than on the sideline - if this were European soccer, they and the Dolphins would be well on their way to playing in a semi-pro league). One Redskin, who shall remain unnamed in this post, accused the Patriots of disrespecting the game in an effort to deflect attention from the fact that what the Patriots really disrespected was the Redskins highly regarded defense.

As just about every former coach, player, and most pundits have said - there's no mercy rule in the NFL, if you don't like a team scoring on you, then do something about it. Rolling over and playing dead when you get down by a couple of touchdowns is what really disrespects the game.

Buyer...beware.

The National Press - The national press, in an effort to build up this weekend's game between the Pats and Colts, are trying to sell the Patriots as the evil empire with the merciless coach who won't take his foot off the pedal once he's driven the opposition into the ground. The Colts are the perennial good guys of the league with the owner doing everything he can to make a stadium happen in his host city, and the brilliant, but nice head coach in Tony Dungy.

Let's look at some of the facts in this - yes, the Patriots are running the score up on people and annihilating their opponents. However, it's not like the Colts under Dungy have never done this. The following was ganked from the Boston Globe's Eric Wilbur, via Dave at The Coffin Corner -

W, 49-14
W, 41-10
W, 41-9
W, 51-24
That quartet of one-sided scores comes to you courtesy of the 2004 Indianapolis Colts from a November-December period during which Peyton Manning and Company annihilated the Texans, Bears, Lions, and Titans, respectively. And, you know it's funny, I don't remember one person whining about them running up the score.

Tony Dungy, the good-guy coach in all of this, did not call off the dogs. Dungy has also publicly associated himself with groups that have well known anti-gay stances (but I suppose that's okay, because everyone knows that on one is gay in the locker room). Focus on Family, the group with which Dungy is most closely associated has been referred to by a number of people as "rabidly anti-gay." Last I checked, Bill Belichick has never aligned himself with any hate groups that hide behind a thin veil of legitimacy by claiming to be family advocates.

Let's look at Jim Irsay - still public enemy number one in Baltimore. Still the only owner that gets more of a rise out of Baltimore fans that Peter Angelos. For those who have forgotten, Irsay, the so-called nice guy owner, packed the Colts up in the dead of night and broke his lease with Baltimore County in an effort to move the team to Indy. Irsay did this against league wishes. Yeah, he's a good guy.

I have no personal issue with the Colts on the field. Manning is a supremely talented quarterback (please take a cue from Brady and cut back on the public endorsements - its annoying enough to make me look forward to seeing you get your head handed to you). The team is talented. However, the general manager and owner have whined whenever things didn't go their way, the head coach is a bigot, and the press is selling a serious double standard here.

Once again...buyer beware.

A quick look at the first two weeks...

But first...is it just me, or are the Sons of Tito trying their hardest to make this feel a lot like 1978?

Now...on to pigskin matters...

I'll comment only on what I have seen enough of to be able to comment on...

The Jets have played precisely a quarter and a half of good football out of eight total quarters played. They might want to consider worrying about playing football rather than what's happening on an opponent's sideline, or what an opponent's snap count is - as it seems that simulating Baltimore's snap count didn't help NY win.

Don't be surprised if other coaches through the course of this season accuse Mangini's team of cheating. There are things that all coaches do that are against the rules, but it's an unwritten rule as a coach that you don't talk about these things. Mangini crossed a line that may even make it difficult, not impossible, just difficult for him to garner another coaching position in the league. Don't believe it, check out Peter King -

"If he wasn't before, Mangini's dead to Belichick now," says one head coach.
"What Mangini did is a disgrace. He wouldn't be a coach in this league without
Bill, and this is how he repays him."...It's widely believed that New England
has stolen signals in this manner for years, but officials from various clubs
acknowledge that the Pats are not the only team that does it - PK, Sports
Illustrated

This weekend they'll have a chance to climb out of the AFC East's cellar...as long as they can manage to beat the Dolphins.

I feel bad for Joey Harrington. I've seen chunks of the Falcons games and that offensive line would make Peyton Manning look bad, yet Bobby Petrino is blaming Harrington for the team's offensive woes. So instead of trying to fix the line for a reasonably mobile QB like Harrington, Petrino goes out and gets his old college QB, the less than sterling Byron Leftwich.

If Leftwich had issues behind the Jaguars line, he'll be toast in Atlanta. Hope you have your cemetery plot picked out Byron, it'll save time for your next of kin.

The Chargers are looking very mortal right now. They struggled against the Bears, really having to work to beat an offensively challenged Chicago squad, and then were absolutely thrashed by the Patriots. If there's anyone out there other than AJ Smith that believes Norv Turner can lead a team to a championship, please raise your hand. Anybody?

I've watched a fair amount of every team in the NFC East, and the only one that looks good is Dallas...and I don't really buy that they're going to do this consistently.

Other quick observations -

The Steelers look good, the Seahawks do not, nor do the Saints.

I think the jury is still out on the Colts. The Defense looks better than expected, but I want to see it against a real powerhouse before I really make a determination about how good Indy is on that side of the ball.

NFL Questions: AFC West

Last season this division had three layers - San Diego, then you had both Denver and Kansas City on the same strata, and then somewhere far below...lower than low can go, you had Oakland...or at least their offense and their overall record. The odd thing about it all is that this division sported the best team during the regular season - the Chargers - and they fired their head coach - one of the winningest coaches in the history of the game, and replaced him with, historically, one of the worst (by account of record) active head coaches in the game. KC is in salary-cap Hell, Denver doesn't really know what it has at quarterback and has questions on defense, and just about everyone is trying to figure out what Al Davis has been thinking for the last three years.

But what is the key question for each of these franchises...

Denver Broncos - There are many questions, not the least of which revolves around the quarterback, additions and subtractions on the defense, and the development of their wide receiver corps. The obvious question is whether or not Jay Cutler shows the progress Mike Shanahan is hoping for, and it is probably the most important question given the luck that Shanahan has had in regards to developing a capable replacement for John Elway. The closest he has come has been working with a free-agent, not with any of his drafted signal-callers. If Cutler progresses the way Shanahan's previous picks at QB have, then the Broncos aren't just in for a long season - they're in for a long couple of seasons. If he can improve on last season, then the Broncos will likely make the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs - Are the Chiefs really committed to their youth movement? In a win now league, the Chiefs are going to be forced to pick between Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard. Huard was the best signal-caller that the Chiefs had last year, and likely gives the team the best chance they have to win this season, but it also means that Croyle is left holding the clipboard. Based on the little bit of playing time that Croyle got last season, it would be surprising if he actually beat out Huard for the starting spot - but seeing as he is supposed to be the future of the team, Huard might lose this contest before it starts through no fault of his own other than the fact that he wasn't the team's first day draft pick at quarterback last season.

Oakland Raiders - Is Jamarcus Russell more than a one game wonder? Throughout last season, it seemed that the consensus top pick at quarterback was Brady Quinn out of Notre Dame. Russell's name seldom...if ever...came up. He has a great bowl game, and suddenly he's the best quarterback in the draft. Other quarterbacks that this happened to include the likes of Ryan Leaf, Jim Druckenmiller, and Akili Smith. All those previous busts, like Russell, was considered a supremely talented physical specimen - if on occasion a bit rough. Russell might break the mold, but if he doesn't, then watch for the Raiders to continue wallowing in the Black Hole of Despair which they have done a fine job of building for themselves. Even if Russell is everything the Raiders are hoping him to be, it's still likely to be a long season, but the team should show improvement.

San Diego Chargers - Can Norv Turner finally produce winners in what is likely to be his last shot as a head coach? After winning a power struggle with the winningest active coach in the NFL, it is completely possible that personnel guru AJ Smith's future as a general manager rests on the shoulders of Norv Turner - the head coach with a career record of 58-82-1. Not a bet that I would have made. The logic behind his hiring was that Turner and his staff run the same playbook that Marty Shottenheimer (200-126-1, by the way) ran, and as such, it means that the players will not have to learn new assignments.

Great logic - except for the fact that Turner, as a head coach, doesn't use that playbook the
same way that Shottenheimer does, as evidenced by their records. Sure, this team is likely to make the playoffs this year - Smith has kept the core starters together, and the team doesn't have to learn a new playbook, but I'm guessing that we see this team backslide over the next couple of years. Norv could be that replacement that finally gets along with Smith - but I would be surprised seeing as no one has yet.

That first question has been answered...partially

Today the Chargers announced that Norv Turner will replace Marty Shottenheimer as the head coach. Is it just me, or is that like announcing that you just replaced your Mustang with a Gremlin?

Cleaning out the cobwebs of the mind...

What are the biggest off-season questions in the NFL? I'm not sure - but I think we're looking at...

Who will take over the Chargers, and will they be the same next year? I'm betting that they'll be good, but not the same.

What does Randy Moss think that being a petulant trouble-maker of a child will get him in the NFL? He has killed his trade value, and most scouts seem to think he's too far gone to be the play maker he once was. I'm sure somebody will take a flyer on him - talent always gets a second chance, but he needs to understand that his next chance is probably his last.

Can Ben Roethlesberger resurrect his career? Honestly, I was never that sold on him to begin with.

Same with Eli Manning who spent the better part of last season regressing.

What does the Patriots brain-trust feel is the biggest problem to address in free-agency? I have been reading a lot of pre-draft about the Pats drafting a line-backer in order to infuse the position with some youth, but that hasn't been Belichick's way. Sure, they have drafted five or six during his time, but none have stuck. They like to convert defensive ends or bring in veterans. My bet is that they make a hard run at Adalius Thomas of the Ravens.

Can the Colts repeat? I think there are going to be too many key free agent losses due to the fact that they have a lot of players going to free agency and not anywhere near enough cap-room to keep them (for example, I have a hunch Dominick Rhodes will be on another team come training camp). They'll make the playoffs, but I would be surprised if they made it all the way to the Super Bowl.

Which coaching change this off-season is most likely to result in a Sean Payton-Saints/Eric Mangini-Jets type of season? I'm guessing the Arizona hiring of Ken Wisenhunt - providing he can straighten out the offensive line woes. Cam Cameron has too may questions at line, quarterback and running back, Mike Tomlin is coming to a team that played .500 ball as opposed to the Cardinals .312. Bobby Petrino also enters a better situation than Wisenhunt, although I believe he Cameron, and Wade Phillips in Dallas are the most likely to backslide by a game or two before showing any signs of improvement.

Trouble in Paradise -

Mariano Rivera is lobbying for a new contract from Boss Hog in New York and the greatest closer in Yankee history is not likely to get it. If there's truth to the rumors that the Yanks are positioning themselves to pursue Francisco Rodriguez in the next off-season, then Mo should be ready to follow up on his threat to play anywhere.

With a starting rotation likely to consist of Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Carl Pavano and whoever they can plug in, Brian Cashman has to be sweating a little. Pettitte and Mussina are near the end of their careers, Pavano hasn't been healthy since Montreal and their ace looks like it might be Wang. Not exactly a front four that will put the fear of the baseball gods into most of the American League.

Basketball and the Rainbow Connection -

Tim Hardaway is an idiot. If he wants to be homo-phobic, fine. I don't even mind that he's upfront about it. Hell, I'll be the first to defend his right to be a bigot. But advocating somebody lose their job due to their sexual preference (which he did) is no better than advocating that they lose their job based on their skin color. Way to set the Civil Rights movement back by about 50 years.

For those of you that missed the report, here's a snippet from the AP story -

"You know, I hate gay people, so I let it be known. I don't like gay people
and I don't like to be around gay people," Hardaway said. "I'm homophobic. I
don't like it. It shouldn't be in the world or in the United
States."
Hardaway also said if he did find out that a teammate was gay, he
would ask for the player to be removed from the team.
"His words pollute the
atmosphere," Amaechi said. "It creates an atmosphere that allows young gays and
lesbians to be harassed in school, creates an atmosphere where in 33 states you
can lose your job and where anti-gay and lesbian issues are used for political
gain," Amaechi said.
Meanwhile, the NBA banished Hardaway from all-star
weekend in Las Vegas because of his anti-gay remarks.
Hardaway, who played in
five all-star games during the 1990s, was already in Las Vegas and scheduled to
make a series of public appearances this week on behalf of the league.
"It is
inappropriate for him to be representing us given the disparity between his
views and ours," Stern said.