Rapid Fire

And not the Brandon Lee flick...

A-Rod, known better in some circles as Slappy McBluelips, is in the news again for yet another boneheaded thing. Slappy posed for a series of sultry photos for Details Magazine, which included a shot of the man making out with the person he loves the most - himself.

There are a lot of stupid things he's done - the hand slap, the yell rounding third, the steroids (rumored to go back as far as high school - which would explain no significant spike in his career stats), his series of contradictory explanations regarding the steroids, getting caught with the stripper in Toronto - but somehow I don't see this flying in the locker room.

The more I think about it, the less likely I think Julius Peppers ends up in New England. I believe that the Pats may have called the Panthers to see what it would take, but I also think that the numbers don't add up - yes, signing him would make it likely that some of the other players would have to be allowed to walk, but I also think for Peppers to come into the fold, he would have to take a considerable cut from what he would make as a franchise player. The Pats aren't going to pay more for Peppers than they do for Tom Brady.

That doesn't even take into account that I find it hard to believe that the Pats would pay out big money to someone who has never played the position.

Also, staying with Peppers, for somebody who wants desperately out of Carolina, he's virtually handcuffed himself by not signing the franchise tender. Without the tender signed, Peppers remains a free agent, however no one will touch him due to the compensation that would be owed to the Panthers - two first round picks. As a free agent, Carolina does not actually hold Peppers' rights and cannot trade him, but are handcuffed in free-agency because, until Peppers signs elsewhere, the team has to have the money available on the books in case Peppers signs the tender - so, even though he's not signed, he counts against the cap. How's that for a kick in the nuts - Peppers, in effect, can't get out of Carolina because he hasn't signed the tender, and Carolina can't improve until they're rid of Peppers, and he's not actually under contract.

For my money, I still say the Pats sign Jason Taylor to small money to play opposite Adalius Thomas. I expect the signing won't happen until sometime after the draft.

The Yankees brain trust cannot be happy with the spring that their big acquisition, CC Sabathia, is having. In fewer than eight innings pitched he has an ERA in excess of 7.00. The Yanks went out and spent big money on a pitcher pushing maximum density that racked up 90 innings in his last 12 starts (not including a brutal start in the playoffs against Philly where he failed to get out of the fourth inning). He had more complete games in the second half last season than he has had in any one whole season in his career. I can't help but think the big money for Sabathia over the long term, and possibly even the short-term is a bad idea.

The Celtics have been hit with some injury issues, but I think there's still enough time for them to get healthy going into the playoffs.

Ditto for the Red Sox going into the regular season.

Good luck to all with their brackets.

The week's happenings...

Eric Mangini is now the coach of the Browns.

Peter King pointed out something interesting here, and it appears Randy Lerner hasn't learned from past mistakes. The last time the Browns had coaching and front office changes, Lerner hired the coach he wanted, and then hired his personnel guy. The coach was from the Patriots' system (Romeo Crennel), and the general manager was plucked out of the Ravens' offices (Phil Savage). By all accounts the two didn't work well together, and, of course, Savage was forced to work with a coach who was not his pick.

Fast forward to today. Mangini, like Crennel, a product of the Belichick system, was hired by Lerner. There is no GM in place, but by all accounts it's going to be another guy out of Baltimore's front offices. Anyone else sense a pattern here?

Personally, I don't see Mangini being any more successful than Crennel was.

Pacman Jones may very well be done. I've said this before, but when the Cowboys think you're too much of a thug, then the only team left is Oakland. Even so, I'm not convinced he'll be allowed to play given the latest news hitting the wires.

Even if Jones gets off by copping a plea, in the NFL's eyes it will be admitting at least some culpability on the part of Jones who allegedly ordered a shooting. Roger Goodell made it perfectly clear that Jones was on a short leash. This has to be the last chance.

For Pittsburgh, home field advantage in the playoffs is a myth. With Ben Roethlisberger under Center the Steelers are 3-0 in road games during the playoffs, but they're only 1-2 at home. In the three home games Big Ben has thrown eight interceptions against five touchdowns. On the road he's thrown seven touch downs against only one interception. In the losses he's thrown for an average of 248 yards per game and the team has averaged 25.3 points per game while giving up 29.7 ppg. In the wins - 226.7 yards per game, and 28.7 ppg scored while giving up 17.3 ppg.

Those numbers confirm something I have always said about Roethlisberger - if the team gets into a shoot out, Big Ben is prone to the mistake that will kill the team. I just didn't realize that he was more prone to make that mistake at Heinz Field.

The Panthers have to be feeling pretty good about their match-up with the Cardinals this weekend. The Panthers went undefeated at home this season while Arizona went 2-6 on the road, beating only the lowly Rams and Seahawks on the road.

So the Sox will be signing Rocco Baldelli and John Smoltz according to reports. I like the signings. Baldelli could be a great help coming off the bench, and from what I've read, might be in better shape to play more than he did last season given that his condition was misdiagnosed.

I like the Smoltz signing. It's not a sexy signing, but with the top three of the rotation already set with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Daisuke Matsuzaka and the Sox already having Tim Wakefield, Brad Penny, and youngsters Clay Buccholz, Michael Bowden, and possibly Justin Masterson competing for the fourth, fifth, and swing-starter/long reliever positions on the staff, Smoltz will have a chance to get healthy and act as insurance on the pitching staff.

If I had to call it, by mid-season I think Masterson is the swing guy with the rotation looking like this -

Beckett, Lester, Dice, Penny, Smoltz/Wake (I figure there will be some time in the DL for Wake who has spent some time there each of the last two seasons).

Cleaning the Junk Drawer, part 2

LaDainian Tomlinson is cooked. Yes, Tomlinson put up respectable numbers, but for the second straight year he broke down at the end of the season and has been the most talented bench warmer in the playoffs.

Each of the last two seasons Tomlinson's yards per rush average has decreased - first by half a yard, and then between this past season and the previous one, a shade under a yard. Tomlinson ran for fewer yards, produced fewer yards from scrimmage and averaged fewer rushing yards per game than at any other time in his career.

Over and above that, Tomlinson might be one of the more overrated running backs...ever. He's a regular season stud, but he's a post season dud.

Consider, for a guy who's supposed to be a game changer, he's come up flat in the big games - in six post-season appearances Tomlinson has averaged 3.6 yards per rush (regular season - 4.4), and only once exceeded 80 yards rushing (123 in a loss to the Patriots). The Chargers are 3-3 in the post season with Tomlinson, but in the team's three wins, Tomlinson has combined to rush for 95 yards (28, 42, and 25) in those three games on 33 carries (2.9 yards per carry). Not exactly an impact player in the NFL's second season.

The current rumor is that Scott Pioli is likely to land the KC position. If that happens, don't be surprised if Josh McDaniels ends up there - or Matt Cassel. It would be kind of ironic if Cassel ends up as the starter for the team that, in essence, launched his pro career, wouldn't it?

I would not be the least bit surprised if all three end up in the same place. The only issue I see is that if it is KC, that Pioli won't want to give up that first round pick because the Chiefs are desperately in need of a stud offensive lineman - unless he believes that the draft is deep enough that he will be able to get someone in the second or third round that can make a difference up front.

What the hell happened to the Celtics in the last two weeks?

I think the American League East is a lot of ifs -

If the Yankees pitching staff stays healthy, they can make the playoffs. Sure, they're likely to have a solid one-two with CC Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang, but AJ Burnett has a history of injury, as does Joba Chamberlain when he starts (that goes back to before he was drafted - it's why the Yankees were able to get him with the 41st pick). If the Yankees have to rely on Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy for a significant number of starts, they should forget about the playoffs in the Bronx.

If Josh Beckett returns to form, and Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka continue to develop the way they have been, then the Sox have the best staff in the East and should make the playoffs.

If the Rays staff - including the bullpen - repeats the year they just had, they should be the favorites, particularly given the signing of Pat Burrell. Burrell is not a superstar, but he is a solid middle of the order (5th, 6th) sort of batter that will knock in about 90 runs and score about 72 runs in a season.

Speaking of the Yankees - kind of offensive that they go out and commit to over $400 million in contracts and then turnaround and tell the City of New York that they need $300 million more to finish the stadium, isn't it?

As good as the Eagles and the Ravens looked this past weekend, I don't think either team will go all the way, although I give the Ravens a better chance than the Eagles. Philly has a tendency to become too one dimensional. The flip side is that I don't trust the Giants without Plaxico Burress - they just haven't been that great without him.

I'm not saying that the best team is going to win the Super Bowl, but if I were to call it, I would say that the likely winner will be whoever is left standing in the Steelers-Ravens game, as long as the winner of that contest comes out healthy. Were I to rank the remaining teams based on their chances, I think I would look at it like this -

1. Steelers
2. Titans
3. Ravens
4. Panthers
5. Giants
6. Eagles
7. Cardinals
8. Chargers

If I had to venture a guess, the winner will be from the top four listed there and that the Giants will not repeat. Just a hunch.

Random thoughts around the league

So, I was really wrong about the Eagles.

Boy, how Andy Reid's star has fallen. The one time offensive genius is getting slammed for a lot of stupidity, and deservedly so. Reid has assembled a team with no power back, which means third and one might as well be third and ten, and he has learned absolutely nothing from his success from the times he managed to win sans Donovan McNabb.

Reid, in the last couple of years, has had his greatest success by increasing the team's number of rushing attempts to have a, or close to a 50-50 split with passing plays. But every time he has McNabb under center, that ratio jumps to a minimum of 60 percent passing plays, if not more.

For a coach that's supposed to be as bright as Reid, it amazes me that he hasn't figured this out. It's like he's channeling Mike Martz.

I've gotta tip my hat to the Jets. They've gone on a damn fine run. Were it not for the flip of a coin, we might be looking at a flip in the standings between the Jets and the Pats.

The Jets are playing some of the best ball of the year, but I still say that right now the Titans are the team to beat in the AFC.

As good as the Cardinals have been, I think they're one and done in the playoffs. I'm not saying they can't make some noise, but they've struggled a bit against the better teams.

If the season stopped now, the Dallas Cowboys could potentially be the biggest disappointments in the league. They would be completely out of the playoffs. Currently they're behind the Panthers, Redskins and Falcons, in that order, for the NFC wild card.

With games against the Giants, Steelers and Ravens coming up, it's entirely possible that the Cowboys could top out at nine wins and miss the playoffs.

Goin' South, NFC Style

The NFC South has been a strange division. In every season since 2003 the team that was worst followed up by going to first the following season.

This year that trend breaks.

Yes, I actually believe that the Falcons are better than they were a year ago, but this is a team in development, not a team ready to win now. And away we go...

4. Falcons - While I'm not necessarily convinced that this team is going to win more games than they did a year ago, I do think this is a better team than last year's edition if for no other reason than the fact that I believe that Atlanta is better positioned to be successful down the road. However, even though I think four wins is the likely total, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team steal one or two and creep up to six wins.

3. Panthers - The more I have seen of this team since their ill-fated run at the Super Bowl a few seasons back, the more I think that was just one of those fluke seasons where everyone had that one career season, the serendipity of everyone on an otherwise average team peaking at the same time to come within a few minutes of a championship. In an effort to recapture that magic, the team has brought back a 35-year old Muhsin Muhammad to pair with the volatile Steve Smith in spite of the fact that Muhammad seldom got separation in Chicago. If Julius Peppers has a 2008 like his 2007, it's going to be a very long, very unrewarding season in the Carolinas.

2. Buccaneers - Chuckie's boys are the tough out, so to speak of the division. They'll hang around until the end, they'll pound you with a physical running game and a tough defense, but they'll also lose one or two to teams they have no business losing to. Realistically, they have just enough talent to scare some people and play spoiler, but they don't really have enough to get all the way to the Bowl. Chances are that they'll hit 8-8, maybe a repeat of last season's 9-7, and they may even win the division again, but they'll have to overcome the Saints which might be the best team in the division.

1. Saints - The Saints could potentially win 11 or 12 with the talent they have, assuming their defense comes together and Jeremy Shockey doesn't do to their locker room that he did to New York's. The chances of that, I think, are slim as this is a veteran quarterback that Shockey is dealing with, and it's definitively Drew Brees' locker room. This isn't a locker room that had veterans like Tiki Barber undermining the QB, and Brees isn't a guy that let's that stuff get to him (see his time with the Chargers for reference). Of the division's team's that have a shot at the playoffs, I think only the Saints have enough talent to make noise in the post-season.

TWIR...the week in review...

The Yankees won two games in a row, Friday and Saturday, and lost a half game in the standings to the Red Sox who dismantled the White Sox.

Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett both have 16 wins on the season and Daisuke Matsuzaka has 14. That's huge in the absence of an effective Curt Schilling.

Michael Vick is likely done in the NFL. The NAACP should stop wasting their time with this and find someone whose civil rights are actually being violated and help that person.

With the exception of one lapse in pass coverage late in the first half, the Patriots looked sharp in their pre-season match-up with the Carolina Panthers. Some quick observations -

• After looking a little tentative and indecisive on his firs couple of rushes, Maroney looked good.
• I'm not sure I like the offensive line going to a zone blocking scheme - it seemed at times that too many people were coming free in the backfield on running plays. The pass blocking, on the other hand, was almost flawless.
• Tight end Marcellus Rivers is making a strong case for sticking with the team. He had two more catches including one for a touchdown, and is a decent blocker. If the Pats cut him and no one picks him up, I will be shocked. I can't figure out why the Giants cut him.
• Donte Stallworth made a hell of a play coming back on a severely under-thrown fluttering duck from Brady.
• Wes Welker appears to have come as advertised and might be the biggest impact free-agent the Pats picked up.
• Am I the only one who is wondering if Randy Moss is pulling a T.O/Terry Glenn here with the hamstring injury?
• Mike Richardson looks like a real player at corner. Hopefully that arm in the sling was precautionary and nothing more.
• For a team playing with only one of its starting defensive linemen, the guys up front did a good job of slowing down the run and of getting penetration.

One final observation (not Patriots)...

Just another example of how ESPN's product has been slipping. ESPN has a piece about baseball teams and "who's the face of the franchise." In the case of the Red Sox, Eric Young at baseball tonight said that it was the Green Monster.

While not the worst choice, it is indeed a choice that required no thought, reflection, or the realization that an inanimate object associated with where the team plays cannot be the face of the franchise. That would be like saying the face of the franchise in Toronto is the Sky Dome because there is no player who is big enough, or has a strong enough personality to be the face of the franchise.

Not surprisingly, three of the other four sources named David Ortiz, and the fourth named Mr. Red Sox, Tim Wakefield.

Ultimately, I guess you have to wonder what the criteria are for being the face of the franchise. My own criteria, and the player has to meet any three of these to qualify - is he the guy the press go to for a comment? Is he the guy that kicks the rest of the team in the ass when they aren't playing well? Is he the guy that carries the team on his back when the team needs him to? Is he the guy that the Team actively markets to get fans to games? Is he the guy that fans automatically associate with the team?

The only exceptions to this can be owners. As much as Derek Jeter is the face of the Yankees, so to is George Steinbrenner. The player doesn't even have to be the best player on the team, he just has to...well meet a number of the above requirements.

To give you an example - two of the sources named Miguel Tejada the face of the Orioles. I live in Oriole country, and I don't see it. Brian Roberts, Peter Angelos, even Kevin Millar I think all are better choices.

It's an interesting, albeit flawed list. Worth a visit none the less.

NFL Questions: NFC South

Welcome to the carnival that since 2003 has given us a different division champion each year(Panthers, Falcons, Buccaneers, Saints - in that order), the soon-to-see must-see-TV on CourtTV involving Michael Vick (I know I promised, but when talking about this division his name is going to come up), the never at home Saints, the Panthers TopCats making out in a bathroom stall...Let's face it, other than the story of the resurgent Saints last season and what it meant to New Orleans, it hasn't been a good couple of years for the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons - Can Bobby Petrino make the jump from NCAA to NFL? By all accounts, Petrino is a knowledgeable and innovative football man. He was brought in by management in the hopes that he might finally be able to make Vick what the Falcons had always hoped he would become - a credible NFL quarterback and team leader. With the federal indictment Vick's first concern and the ever growing likelihood that he will never put on a Falcons jersey again...unless he's feeling sentimental, now Petrino needs only worry about succeeding where many other college coaches (Butch Davis, Steve Spurrier, Nick Saban - I'm looking at you) have failed in recent years.

Yes, he has experience in the pros that predates his college experience, however, so did Saban. Ultimately, Atlanta's season will come down to how well he adjusts to the pro-game - and that includes how much he can convince the players to buy into what he is selling.

Carolina Panthers - After the last couple of seasons, I think the obvious question is...do they have enough depth? The Panthers have suffered through inconsistent play since their loss to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Invariably, the offense has suffered for the lack of one person - whenever receiver Steve Smith went down, they struggled. Whenever the starting running back went down, they struggled. When they lost Jake Delhomme, they struggled. When Julius Peppers got banged up, they struggled. More often than not, these injuries did not coincide with each other.

If they stay healthy, they could be the team to beat. If even one key piece goes down, they could be 8-8 - unless the back-ups play better than they did the last couple of years. On the plus side - David Carr will push Delhomme for the starting spot, and is a clear upgrade from Chris Weinke.

New Orleans Saints - Can they avoid the sophomore slump? Last season the Saints were the feel-good story of the NFL complete with late round rookies starting. Now the Saints have to hope that, with the film that now exists, players like Marques Colston, Terrence Copper, Reggie Bush, are able to deal with the added pressure that defenses are likely to put on them in their sophomore year. As those three go, so go the Saints.

Tampa Bay Bucanneers - Is this team really built to win? It's a broad question, but one I think needs to be asked of a team that has suffered from age and injury in recent years. Beyond 35-year old Joey Galloway, the team's best options at receiver are former first-round flop and steroid test failer David Boston, Ike Hilliard who has had progressively fewer receptions in each of the last three seasons (33 last season), and Michael Clayton who has 80 receptions in his rookie year, but hasn't even amassed 35 in a season since. At quarterback they have a choice between the inconsistent Chris Simms, or a decent Jeff Garcia who will need a solid running attack to win - he's not going to win getting into a serious shooting match at this stage of his career.

Between Ronde Barber, Derrick Brooks, Kevin Carter, Brian Kelly, Greg Spires and Simeon Rice they have 69 years of NFL service. Not necessarily what you want when you run a smaller defense predicated on speed rather than power. Could they still win with these guys - it's possible, but the older a player gets, the less the tank seems full at the end of the season.