Much ado...and at least one answer

There's a lot being made of the Giants 9 game road winning streak going into Green Bay, and not to take anything away from the Giants who have been road warriors this season, but the Packers haven't been slouches at home, going into this game with an 8-1 record at Lambeau this season.

How about this statistic for home field advantage - the Patriots have won 13 straight at the Razor, last losing to the Jets over 14 months ago. Also, the team is undefeated in Championship games at Foxborough, and undefeated in post-season games held in Massachusetts in sub-freezing temperatures since Bill Belichick took over the team.

The hosting teams have four Super Bowl rings in five appearances and are 6-2 in this round of the playoffs, the second loss was by Tom Brady in last season's match-up in Indianapolis. Brady is 3-0 in championship games held in Foxborough.

As for the answer...

Teresa posed a question to me - has the AFC East hosted the best and worst teams in the NFL before this season? Yes. The first time the East held the dubious distinction was in 1984 when the Dolphins and a rookie Dan Marino led the league with a 14-2 record while the Buffalo Bills brought up the rear with a 2-14 record.

All of this has inspired the final note...a note on futility -

The Arizona Cardinals, the longest active franchise in professional football - actually predating the league currently known NFL - hasn't won a championship since 1947. The team was founded in 1899 under the name the Morgan Athletic Club on the South Side of Chicago. It later became the Racine (Street) Cardinals, then the Chicago Cardinals, St. Louis Cardinals, Phoenix Cardinals, and finally the Arizona Cardinals.

In 108 years this team has won two championships, an average of one every 54 years. Their last title was 20 years before the Super Bowl.

This team did Chicagoans a favor by moving from the Windy City.

The teams that haven't even made it to the Super Bowl include the Browns, Cardinals, Lions, Saints, Texans and Jaguars. As far as opportunities - All but the Texans and Jaguars were in existence at the beginning of the Super Bowl Era (technically the Saints for the second). The Texans and the Jags have been around for, combined, less than 20 Super Bowls (the Jags first year was 1995, the Texans 2002).

Then there are those who have made it to the big game only to lose - Eagles, Bills, Vikings, Oilers/Titans, Bengals, Chargers, Falcons, Panthers, and Seahawks. Unless the Chargers can get past the Patriots tomorrow, it means that the winner of this Super Bowl will come from the pool of 16 winners of the 41 previous Super Bowls.

Of the three active teams in the playoffs that previously won, all are multiple winners - the Giants with two (1986, 1990), the Packers with three (1967, 1968, 1996), and the Patriots with three (2001, 2003, 2004). Other multiple winners include with five each - the Steelers, 49ers, and Cowboys; with three are the Raiders and Redskins; and with two are the Dolphins, Colts, and Broncos.

Of the 41 Super Bowls already played, 11 teams account for 35 of the titles - if you're wondering why the math is off, I think it's because of the whole affair between the Cleveland and Baltimore with the Browns' move and subsequent name change, however, I might just be missing a team in there.

Either way, it's likely that a franchise that has already won a Super Bowl will be getting fitted for another set of rings come February.

Pretender or Contender - NFC style

Who are the legit heirs to the NFC throne? Will we see the Cheeseheads melting in the Arizona sun, or will the West be Won by the Gauchos in Dallas? What are the chances that a Jolly Roger will fly high over the Arizona desert, or that an ocean bird from the Pacific Northwest will migrate to the Cardinals' nest?

One thing to note - with teams like the Seahawks struggling to separate themselves from the lesser teams in the weak Western division until the last couple of weeks, it's hard to completely buy into some of the NFC teams as legitimate contenders.

The contenders...

Dallas Cowboys (13-2) - Quite simply, they are the best the NFC has to offer. The number one NFC offense (second only in the league to the Patriots), and the sixth best NFC defense in regards to opponents scoring (12th overall). If a team can take advantage of the Dallas D, the team can be had. Through their first eight games the team's margin of victory was an average of 15.8 points per game with only three of those victories coming by a margin of less than 17 points. Since the halfway point that average margin of victory has dropped to 8.8 points per game with only one contest in which the margin was larger than 17 points.

That said, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Big D, and it's going to be a tough, albeit not impossible, task to knock the Cowboys off in their own backyard.

Green Bay Packers (12-3) - The game against the Bears was not exactly reassuring, but I'm willing to give a team as young as the Packers a mulligan. The big problem for Green Bay is that they will have to go through Dallas to get to Arizona, and I'm not convinced that Brett Favre's history in that stadium isn't in his head.

In their earlier match-up this season Favre went away from the game-plan that had the Pack undefeated going into Dallas. If he isn't trying to force the deep ball on every play and hit the homerun, so to speak, then I give the Packers a fair chance at the upset. If Favre makes the unforced errors of the first match-up, then Cheesehead Nation will not be invading the Desert come January.

Washington Redskins (8-7) - I know that Washington is not in yet, but they control their own fate and are playing their best football of the season. I feel uncertain about putting this team here, but the fact is that they are playing smart, disciplined football right now - and they are playing with a purpose - and that makes them dangerous.

Also, they play in what appears to be the toughest division in the NFC, playing against playoff teams and hopefuls in Dallas, New England, New York (Giants), Green Bay, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. Half of the 'Skins' games have been against opponents that either are headed to, or still have a chance to head to the playoffs. Sure, they're 2-5 against these teams (with the final match-up against Dallas on the docket for this weekend), but take away the drubbing at the hands of the Patriots, an the average margin of victory for those opponents in those four games is 4.25 points per game. In the last two games, both victories over teams contending for spots (the Giants, and the Vikings), the margin was 11.5 points per game - a 15.75 point swing in favor of the Redskins.

They have a long hard road ahead - assuming they can close out with a win over Dallas and seal their playoff fate, they will have to play three games on the road no matter what due to being the sixth and final entry from the NFC.

The pretenders -

New York Giants (10-5) - They pulled off an emotional victory over a mediocre Buffalo Bills team last week and are on the road next week at Tampa Bay. A lot will be made about Tampa's stifling defense - currently tied for the top rank with the Patriots giving up only 15.9 points per game. I think that, healthy, New York can get by Tampa - and even unhealthy I give them a chance.

New York's biggest liability is Eli Manning - not only do they not know what quarterback they're going to get from game to game, sometimes his Jeckyll and Hyde routine goes quarter to quarter. While I think they might squeak by with one road win, I'm not convinced that a team that hasn't strung together more than two wins in a row for half a season will be able to come away with three straight on the road to get to the big game.

Seattle Seahawks (10-5) - After their opener against Tampa (whom they beat), The only post-season contenders this team has played have been Pittsburgh and Cleveland. They lost to both, to go with losses to Arizona, Carolina, and New Orleans.

Consider the following as the Seahawks will likely be hosting the Redskins next week - Technically, this team has not beaten a single team with a winning record (the Bucs were 0-0 at the time of their game7-8 Eagles. I have no reason to believe that the Seahawks are going to start defeating opponents with winning records now.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-6) - People are trying to dub this as the sleeper team. They're wrong.

This is the so called sleeper team because of their sterling defense, tied with the Patriots for first in the league, giving up on 15.9 points per game. Let's take a closer look at how that defense has done against quality offenses - the Bucs have faced four potential playoff teams and have gone 1-3 against them, losing to the 11th ranked Seahawks offense, the 3rd ranked Colts O, and the 5th ranked Jaguars offense, winning only against the 19th ranked Redskins.

As a matter of fact, the only offenses in the top 20 that the Bucs beat have been the 10th ranked Saints, 9th ranked Cardinals, and the 19th ranked Skins. The Saints and Cards are both in the bottom third of the league in defense. Otherwise, six of the nine wins that the defense forged its reputation against have had an average offensive ranking of around 26th overall - or against teams averaging only about 16 points per game (this includes two games against the 31st ranked scoring team in the league).

By contrast, the Patriots have beaten four division winners (Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Steelers), and two (likely) wild card entrants (Browns, Redskins). Their wins have come over teams whose offenses rank 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, 13th, 17th and 19th. The average offensive ranking of the Patriots opponents is about 18th overall, or an average of around 20.7 points per game.

The point here is that the Bucs are holding opponents to 0.1 points per game below their aggregate average against the rest of the league, so in theory a team that averages 27 points per game is probably still going to score about 27 points against the them. Not a great statistic for a team trying to make headway into the post season.

The proverbial monkey wrench...

Minnesota Vikings (8-7) - The Vikings are in if they win and the 'Skins lose. This is not a team I can see going deep into the playoffs. They are a team that can screw up someone else shot at the title. They are physical and tough against the run, and have bruising runners who get into the second level and punish an opponents secondary.

If nothing else, they can make a healthy team unhealthy for their next opponent.

Edsel

From Wikipedia -

There is no single reason why the Edsel failed, and failed so spectacularly. Popular culture often faults the car’s styling. Consumer Reports cited poor workmanship. Marketing experts hold the Edsel up as a supreme example of corporate America’s failure to understand the nature of the American consumer.

I start off this way for a reason.

While growing up, the jokes I always heard about Ford was that the product name was an acronym - the jokes were that the acronym stood for either Fix Or Repair Daily, or Found On Road Dead. There was a general belief that Ford had trouble putting out a....competitive product.

I bring this up because I want to talk about another Ford product made in MoTown: The Lions.

Three weeks ago Detroit was everyone's surprise, a 6-2 media darling. The wow, John-Kitna-wasn't-just-blowing-smoke-when-he-guaranteed-the-team-would-win-at-least-ten-games team. This morning the Motor City is waking to a 6-4 record and a remaining schedule including games against Green Bay (twice), Dallas, San Diego, Minnesota, and KC.

Given the team's struggles against the NFC East, I'm going to assume Dallas as a loss, I don't think they can beat Green Bay, and I doubt they can do it against a struggling Chargers squad. While Minnesota and Kansas City are Detroit's best chance at wins in their remaining games, they barely beat the Vikings in the first go around, and I don't think the Chiefs are a gimme for them either. I think there's a very real possibility that Detroit finishes 6-10, and although 8-8 wouldn't surprise me, the Lions would have to get some very lucky breaks to even reach nine wins.

If Detroit is in that downward spiral, and they do end up 6-10, then general manager Matt Millen will have extended his dubious record of consecutive seasons presiding over clubs with double digit losses - as much an indictment of Millen as it would be of the Ford family.

If you're not part of the solution...

Just one more quick thing regarding Detroit - Offensive coordinator Mike Martz was being hailed for his work with the Lions three weeks ago. The Lions high powered offense was going to propel this team into the playoffs and Martz was going to be a hot commodity for teams looking for a new head coach. Two straight losses and Martz is part of the problem.

This isn't perceptual, it's the truth.

Martz is calling the plays on offense, and this is how he is calling them - over the last two games, the Lions have had 107 offensive snaps (not including punts). Of those, only 19 have been running plays (17.8 % of the plays) for a whopping total of 17 yards (-8 yards on 8 called running plays against Arizona).

Detroit is the only team in the league to have called fewer than 200 rushing plays (197) through ten games for a league last average of 76.9 yards per game. What has Martz's predictable play calling done for the team the last two weeks? It has pitted them against two decent pass defenses that knew they could pin their ears back and just rush the quarterback all day. Some relevant numbers - 3, as in the total number of touchdowns thrown by Kitna over the last two weeks. 5, as in the number of interceptions thrown by Kitna. 7, the number of times Kitna has been sacked over the last two weeks.

Martz is not going to be a HC candidate anywhere this off-season.

The Patriot Way...

Fifteen years ago I remember watching the likes of Tim Goad, Bruce Armstrong, Kevin Turner, Tom Hodson, Scott Zolack, Vincent Brown and a whole lot of other no-names stumble through a 2-14 season fresh off their 1-15 season. Were I sitting at a bar and another Patriots fan told me that New England would one day look like the best team to ever play the game, I would have punched him for mocking my pain.

Yet, here we are.

And here are a couple of thoughts on the dismantling of the competition - past and present - that the current Patriots squad is engaging in...

During last night's game John Madden said that he has never seen a quarterback play the way Tom Brady is playing right now. Nobody - not Brett Favre, not Dan Marino, not Peyton Manning. Just Brady. The numbers back it up.

The Patriots are on pace to break the record for points scored in a season...by a c-note. Brady is on pace to shatter Peyton Manning's record of 49 touchdown passes in a season. And don't be surprised if the following number becomes relevant in the Pats-Jets rematch - 72. It's the most points scored in a game by one team (Redskins over NY Giants, Nov 27, 1966. Final, 72-41). Or this number - 64. That was the most scored by a team (Philadelphia over Cincinnati, Nov. 6, 1934) in a shut-out victory.

Belichick is noted as a football historian, he probably already has these numbers himself.

To give everyone a sense of the Patriots dominance, I really do have to borrow the following tidbit from Peter King over at si.com -

I did some quick math on the Patriots' first-team offense over the past nine possessions, going back to the fourth quarter of the Colts' game, and not including their final possession in Indy, when they were trying to run out the clock and not trying to score. (New England had its bye last week.) The incredible numbers:

Possessions: 9
Touchdowns: 9
Quarters played: 4
Tom Brady touchdown passes: 7
Tom Brady passing yards: 504
Yards per drive: 65.9
Time per drive: 3:21

Even if the Patriots stumble on their quest for perfection, we're still watching history unfold.

One final note on...well, final scores. There are times that I like John Madden, other times that I get really tired of his schtick - but the man knows football, and is old school about it. And he said about the scoring what needed to be said. To paraphrase - it's not the offense's job to stop moving the ball. That job belongs to the defense, and if the offense is putting up 56 points, then the defense isn't doing its job. If they can't stop the offense, then the opponent is supposed to give the team the ball? That's not how it works.

Thanks Madden, it was nice to hear one of the national commentators remind people that the guys on defense are supposed to be earning their money too.