The coaches they are a changin'

Well, we've already seen Eric Mangini (Jets), Rod Marinelli (Lions), Romeo Crennel (Browns), and Mike Shanahan (Broncos) get their walking papers. There are other coaches that shouldn't be resting easy today, including; Jim Haslett (Rams), Herm Edwards (Chiefs), Marvin Lewis (Bengals) and, while I don't expect it, I wouldn't be surprised if there were a change in New Orleans at the expense of Sean Payton or one in Dallas at the expense of Wade Phillips. We already know that there will be changes in Seattle, and while it would surprise me, I think Jacksonville might consider a change. That's at least ten potential coaching changes in the offing.

Little more than 30 percent of the league's coaches could be collecting unemployment before this year's free-agent class has a chance to hit the market. I want to take a moment to go through each of the above and address some of the issues...

I'm not going to address Seattle as Mike Holmgren is leaving of his own accord, so let's start with Mike Shanahan. I've always felt that Shanahan was one of the league's more overrated coaches. I will give him credit for creating and running an offensive scheme that could probably make me a 1000 yard rusher in the NFL - and I'm a broken down 38-year old with bad ankles. However, for all his offensive genius, he's regularly missed in his search for the heir apparent to John Elway (consider, Bill Belichick, traditionally considered a keen defensive mind, has already had two quarterbacks perform up to snuff after Drew Bledsoe, then the best quarterback in franchise history, went down. Shanahan is on his third since Elway, the last two are journeyman back-ups, and the jury is still out on the current one).

A lot of people are surprised by the Shanahan firing. I'm not. Since Elway's retirement, Shanahan has had ten seasons of which he only had four seasons of more than nine wins. In his four seasons with Elway he had only one that had fewer than 12 wins. Even with the one 8-8 season in 1995, Shanhan averaged 12 wins per season with Elway as his quarterback. Since Elway's retirement Shanahan has averaged 9 wins per season and eight per season for the last three.

The team was in command of its destiny until it lost four of its last six, including losses to the moribund division rival Raiders, and the struggling Bills. Two winnable games that would have made the final game against the Chargers moot.

In Kansas City, Herm Edwards' fate is held in the hands of whoever replaces long-time president Carl Peterson. If I were a betting man, I would say his days in KC are done. I like Edwards but feel he has some shortcomings as a head coach. He seems to make bad decisions in critical pressure situations, which is what lost him the job in New York. My guess is that he returns to a coordinator position.

In the Meadowlands Brett Favre was the coach-killer. Honestly, as little as I like Eric Mangini, that late season collapse should have signaled the end of Mike Tannenbaum who saddled Mangini with Favre.

The reasoning for dropping Mangini who had two winning seasons in his three years there was that Tannenbaum gave Mangini a revamped offensive line, a former MVP at signal caller, and a beast in the middle on defense - never mind that the collapse can almost wholly be laid at the feet of Favre, Tannenbaum's hand-picked savior of the franchise, or that the quarterback they cut in favor of Favre arguably had an MVP-type season, or that the beast of a nose-tackle wasn't fit enough to stay on the field and be effective in the fourth quarter.

So Mangini is looking for work. If he can't land a head coaching job, it should be interesting to see if anyone will take him on in some capacity. My guess is that Spygate burned a lot of bridges for him.

Rod Marinelli was the beneficiary of Matt Millen's handiwork finally coming to full fruition. Marinelli may or may not be a good coach, but getting stuck with Matt Millen's picks, it's hard to tell.

Crennel's undoing was having a locker room full of really talented guys that couldn't figure out what it took to win, and Jim Haslett - well, Haslett had a couple of issues working against him, not the least of which was that the Rams are just plain bad.

Also a problem for Haslett - the double standard in the application of the Rooney Rule.

Mid season the Rams wanted to give Haslett an incentive laden contract. If he met the incentives, he came back as head coach, if he didn't, then it was at the discretion of the Rams. The NFL decided, as Haslett was an interim head coach, that the provisions were in violation of the Rooney rule.

Here are my problems with that -

The spirit of the rule was that it open up interview opportunities for minority coaching candidates. The 49ers were allowed to sign their interim head coach, Mike Singletary, to an extension without having to interview anybody - so, in essence, Norm Chow, Romeo Crennel, and possibly soon to be unemployed Herm Edwards, and Marvin Lewis had no chance to interview for the HC position in San Francisco. Not to mention the obvious inequity in regards to the way the league handled two coaches in the exact same position based solely on the color of their skin.

Also, I fail to see how what the Rams did is significantly different to what the Cowboys did in signing their offensive coordinator to a contract stipulating that he becomes head coach when Wade Phillips leaves, or the fact that a similar contract exists in Seattle between the Seahawks and Jim Mora, Jr.

In essence, Haslett got screwed because the NFL decided to apply the Rooney Rule capriciously.

In Cincy I expect that Lewis will be gone after six turmoil-filled seasons during which he averaged fewer than seven wins per season, and broke the eight-win barrier only once. Hailed as a defensive guru, only once - this past season - were his defenses in Cincy ranked higher than 20th, and at 16th, they were barely in the top half of the league. The average rank for his defenses since getting the job - 23rd.

Braincramp and other things...

Just some quick thoughts on this past weekend's NFL games...

Watched the Bills-Jets game and could only come to the conclusion that the Bills of September were an illusion. Yes, I know that their starting quarterback is out, as is Aaron Schobel, their best defensive player. That doesn't excuse the Bills coaches who called for a pass with two minutes left. The coaches that called for a pass with two minutes left when their running backs were ripping off five to six yards a carry. Perish the thought that they protect the ball and possibly have to put the game in the hands of their defense because they had to punt the ball with about a minute to go. No, call a passing play and turn the ball over.

Boneheads.

The Raiders have set a mark for futility that not even the pitiful Lions have been able to achieve. With their loss to the Patriots, Oakland has become the first team in the history of the NFL to lose at least 11 games in six consecutive seasons. Barring a major overhaul of the organization, starting with Uncle Al, this is not a team that looks like they have an opportunity to win more than five games next season.

Speaking of the Lions, with their loss to the Colts, they're only two steps away from immortality. A bowl of gumbo, and a block of cheese, so to speak, with games left against two talented squads where players will be playing desperately for their jobs over the next two weeks. The Lions will be playing solely to avoid becoming the first 16 loss team in the history of the NFL.

With yesterday's win, the Pats can finish no worse than .500. The last time a New England team lost more than eight in a season was in 2000 when the team won only five games.

The offense was firing on all cylinders at the beginning of the game with Matt Cassel throwing for four touchdowns and three other players reaching the endzone as the Patriots rang up 487 yards on offense and a total of 663 (including special teams). Unfortunately, were the Pats playing a better offensive team, this still could have been a close game despite the 47 points scored by the Pats.

The messiness that is the Raiders netted 545 combined yards against the Pats. Part of the reason why I think that if the playoffs are in the cards for New England, they'll be folding early.

As for the Pats playoff chances...

They got some help from the Steelers who dropped the Ravens in Baltimore. Currently the Ravens, Jets, Pats, and Dolphins are all tied at 9-5 with the Ravens holding the tie-breakers for the last wild card slot. Currently the standings look like this -

Jets - AFC East champ

Ravens - Wild Card
'Phins
Pats

To get in the Pats need to win out and get help from any number of places - to win the East, they need Miami to lose to Kansas City, and then win against the Jets, or for the Jets to lose to the Seahawks and then win against Miami. To get the wild card, the team still needs to win out with both the Ravens and one of the in-division foes to drop a game as before. Even though the Ravens have the toughest remaining schedule with the Cowboys and Jaguars still on the docket, I just don't see them losing either game.

If this is the end of the road for the Patriots this season, so be it.

With additional injuries to Gary Guyton and Matt Light this week, their job has become a lot tougher.

As for Cassel - he gave an impressive performance, given his situation, and the weather. I'm sure his dad would have been proud.

Triage and thoughts around the league

Adalius Thomas has joined the ranks of Tom Brady, Lawrence Maroney, Rodney Harrison, Tank Williams, and Ryan O'Callahan. Soon he will be put on the IR with them. All are lost for the season all players that were either starters, or were expected to be significant contributors.

Thomas played more defensive snaps than any other linebacker on the team - followed by rookie Jerrod Mayo, and Mike Vrabel. Rookie free-agent Gary Guyton has been rotating with Tedy Bruschi, allowing the veteran to remain fresh.

Like last season, the Pats got whacked by injuries at linebacker. Those injuries forced Bruschi and
Junior Seau to shift from platooning to sharing the box on defense. They played well, but they showed signs of wear and age late in the season - maybe at no time more than in the Super Bowl.

So this poses a question - Do the Patriots find their solution from within, or do they go out and get help?

The track record so far this season is that they look from within - consider: When Brady was lost for the season, Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick could have brought in a veteran - either Tim Rattay (whom the Pats considered drafting instead of Brady), or Chris Simms - or they could have even traded for a QB. The Pats took a lot of flak in the press for not bringing someone in.

They're down to a rookie free-agent running back that was buried so deep on the depth chart at the beginning of the season that he was somewhere below the ocean floor. The team could have gone and signed Najeh Davenport, recently cut from the Steelers. So far, they haven't.

When Rodney Harrison went down and the rest of the secondary got nicked up, there were a number of solutions available - including John Lynch. They brought back Jason Webster, who was with the team through the pre-season, but he hasn't played a snap yet.

There area few outside solutions to the Pats current dilemma, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go to any of these, but I also wouldn't be surprised with a "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" attitude from Belichick. Roosevelt Colvin knows the system and is available, the same is the case with Junior Seau (assuming he's fully recovered from his off-season surgery). If Colvin can still play, he can fill the same roll as pass rusher that Thomas has been playing while keeping the current rotation largely intact. If Seau comes back, that allows the team to move Guyton to the outside, his natural position, while platooning Seau and Bruschi.

As for the defensive backfield, if the injuries continue to mount, I wouldn't be surprised to see Lynch brought back into the fold with Brandon Meriweather moving over to corner. Personally, and I don't think it will happen, but I would like to see Troy Brown brought back for the nickel package.

Elsewhere...

That sucking sound you hear coming from Oakland...well let's just say I now get why it's nicknamed the black hole. It's where careers go to die - whether as a player, coach, or executive, Al Davis is bound to suck the life out of you.

If Oakland fans are feeling...shall we say...put out, at least they're not Detroit which is not only looking at another likely round of layoffs after record losses by the auto industry, but also a football team that will almost certainly set a new record for futility with the first perfectly imperfect season. Looking at their remaining schedule, it wouldn't be surprising for the team to go winless.

Then of course there are fellow bottom feeders St. Louis, Seattle, San Francisco, Kansas City, Houston, and Cleveland. Fans of all these teams, particularly the Browns and Seahawks who both have been competitive in recent years, have to be wondering where it's all gone wrong for their hometown teams.

If the season ended today, the top eight positions in the draft (barring trades) would look like this -

1. Detroit
2. Cincinnati
3. KC
4. St. Louis
5. Oakland
6. Seattle
7. San Francisco
8. Houston

At the other end of the spectrum, you have upstarts and stalwarts turning in spectacular coaching performances -

Belichick has the Patriots positioned to possibly win the division again, in spite of injuries to the key players mentioned above. It may be one of the best seasons' worth of coaching in his career.

Mike Smith in Atlanta along with former Patriots employee Thomas Dimitroff has the Falcons four wins away from a likely playoff birth barely removed from the brutal chaos of last season's twin Michael Vick and coaching fiascoes. Considering there were those that knocked the Falcons for bringing in Smith, this has to be one of the top performances in the NFL this season.

Jim Zorn in Washington I was positive was a year away, at least, from being competitive. I figured the man who has never been a coordinator needed at least one season for his system to sink in. Boy was I wrong.

Jeff Fisher in Tennessee might actually match the Patriots' regular season accomplishment of last season. They have a tough road, with games against resurgent Jets and Colts teams, and what's sure to be a war of attrition against Pittsburgh late in the season. Fisher has done a hell of a job this season, but people are too quick to give him credit for doing it with their back-up, Kerry Collins, who's a better quarterback than Vince Young, and has piloted teams to the playoffs, and even as far as the Super Bowl before.

Any one of these four is worthy of coaching honors, and none would surprise me as the winner - barring an epic collapse by any of them.

Midweek Ephemera

Congratulations to the Phillies.

The World Series was kind of a can't lose prospect for me this year. I was born in Philadelphia - the family moved to Boston when I was three - but most of my extended family remains in and around the City of Brotherly Love. I also taught there for five years before moving to Maryland. So, for the friends and family still there - enjoy the win.

As for the Rays - well, it was a good run. It would have been nice, in as much as it would have just been a wonderful metaphorical screw you to the Steinbrenner clan and their free-spending ways if the team with the second lowest payroll in all of baseball had walked away with the championship. And it just would have been made sweeter that the team that plays on Georgie's front porch did it.

Over on the hard-court it was nice to see the Celtics come up with a win on the same day they raised their seventeenth banner to the rafters in the Gahden. I think it was important for them to come out and get the win against fellow Eastern power Cleveland, but mostly, it was nice to see the green-and-white come out rise to the occasion on what was a very emotional night for some of the team. I would right about it more, but I think that Dave over at The Coffin Corner already has it covered.

Don Banks over at SI almost always has a tidbit or two that I hadn't yet put together. In his mid-season report, he noted something very interesting about the Brett Favre acquisition. For all the hoopla surrounding his acquisition, and the optimism about their improvement (at this point last season they were 1-6 as opposed to 4-3), they are, in essence, no better than they were this time last year - third place, trailing the Bills and the Patriots, and one game ahead of the bottom dwelling Dolphins. Sure, they're a lot closer to first than last season, but the Favre gambit has yet to translate into any sort of change in the standings.

With a Brady-less Patriots team, this really has got to be eating at Jets fans.

What's happened to the NFC South? Last season they sent three teams to the post-season, this season only the Titans are on pace to even have a winning season.

Speaking of paces, who do you like most for a winless season - the 0-8 Bengals, or the 0-7 Lions? Personally, I think that it's completely possible that both teams will succeed where so many bad teams have failed in delivering the first perfect season in the annals of sucking. But, hey, I'm just an optimist hoping to view perfection in back-to-back seasons.

Panic in Patriot Nation

There are a lot of Patriots fans out there that don't seem to pay close attention to what's going on around the league, or that even know their history. I know that, for the most part, if you're reading this, I'm preaching to the choir, but I still have to get this off my chest.

After the beat down the Pats suffered at the hands of the Dolphins this weekend, a lot of the fans on the message boards, particularly at the Boston Globe and Yahoo, are calling for the Pats to sign Duante Culpepper. Yeah, the same Culpepper that was having trouble playing his way out of a paper bag when he had the Baltimore power running game behind him. The same Culpepper that is failing to generate interest from Kansas City, Detroit, and Cleveland - all winless teams suffering from poor quarterback play as much as from anything else.

Consider since 2001, as a starter, Culpepper has a record of 30 wins and 44 losses, has started 16 games only twice during that time, has averaged 11.1 interceptions per season (but 17 per 16 games), 15.5 touchdowns per season, and has been sacked 3.2 times per start (to put some of that into perspective - Tom Brady has been sacked an average of 1.8 times per start, or an average of 22.4 fewer times over every 16 game season; and 12.5 INT's per 16 games).

Sure, people aren't clamoring for him to replace a struggling Brady - they're clamoring for him to replace what they perceive as a struggling Cassel. Before you go calling for the head of the Pats back-up, think about this -

Culpepper is not the answer - if you think he is, if he was such an answer, why aren't any other team's looking at him? he's done.

As for Cassel -

a) That game wasn't his fault. he didn't give up 38 points. The defense seldom stopped a team that couldn't win more than one game last year. With the Dolphins far out in front, they were able to load up against the running game and basically dare the Patriots to win on the arms of Cassel.

b) A look at Brady's second game? a 30-10 loss to the dolphins in which he passed for a total of 86 yards, no TD's, no INT's and was sacked 4 times for 17 yards of losses. Cassel passed for 131 yards and a TD (1 int), and was sacked 4 times for 19 yards. additionally, the Brady led pats in that 2001 game lost three fumbles. The Patriots lost only one turnover this past Sunday.

Back in '01, after the team got shellacked, Pats fans just saw another losing season ahead of them with a back-up slogging his way through the season in place of his more accomplished predecessor.

No - Cassel is no Tom Brady, but Brady didn't light it up his first two games as a starter either -

Brady's line through his first two NFL starts...

25 for 47 (53.2 percent completion rate), 254 yards, 5 sacks for 26 yards, no TD's, no INT's.

Cassel -

35 for 54 (64.8 percent completions), 296 yards, 7 sacks for 28 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

If anything, Cassel has had a slightly better first two games than Brady. Be patient.

This and that...

Make no mistake, I want the Red Sox to repeat as World Series champs. However, given Hank Steinbrenner's whining about how divisional play and the wild card give other teams an unfair competitive advantage (yes, the same Steinbrenner whose payroll is roughly $70.4 million higher than the next highest team and $90 million more than the Dodgers that he singled out) I would be perfectly happy seeing the Rays, who carry a payroll roughly a quarter that of the Yanks, walk home with this year's championship.

I would be happy to see the Brewers win, even at the expense of the Sox (not thrilled, mind you), but it would be a nice FU to the way the Steinbrenner family has done business.

Anyone else waiting for the Ford Family to say April Fools, no we really still have Matt Millen as our GM. The fact the man set a new standard for futility as a GM is impressive - particularly in an era that has seen the likes of Carl Peterson of the Chiefs, Jay Zygmunt of the Rams, Bill Bavasi of the Mariners, and, of course, Isiah Thomas of the Knicks. The fact he finagled a contract extension during that stretch is nothing less than puzzling. It never fails to amaze me that Lions fans didn't march on the stadium with torches and pitchforks.

Speaking of puzzling - how did Omar Minaya manage a contract extension in the middle of a second consecutive collapse?

Finally, with all the hits cycling has taken in the last two years, all the suspensions of many of the sport's top talents, am I the only one out there thinking that Lance Armstrong, in spite of his age, should be considered the favorite to win next year's Tour de France? I also suspect, considering he's riding gratis, that this is, more or less, a BIG FU to the French.

The Dog Days and the NFC North

In recent years this series - Sawx-Yanks - in the dog days of August has meant a lot to the complexion of the American League East. It has played a part in determining the East Champ, and even the Wild Card contender. It's where the wheels came off of the Sawx in 2005.

It's where the Sawx gave Yankees hope for the division last season.

This year it's less about the division than who ends up out of the playoffs. Nothing is written in stone, and both the Yankees and Sox have looked a little cooked lately, while the Twins have surged recently. Granted, the Sox were looking a little cooked at the beginning of
September last season, dropping five of their six to the Yanks in August and September and look what happened there.

But let's face a few basic facts - a month ago the Sox were by themselves as the wild card entrant if the season ended then. Now the margin of the Twins is smaller than the space between the Sox and the division leading Rays - who have added games between the two teams in the last month. The Sox still have a chance to pull it off - even the division - but the team has to play better ball of the next month than they have for the last month.

Needless to say, it's gonna be one hairy September in the Hub of the Universe.

And onto the gridiron...

The NFC North - Something feels weird about this division. It's filled with teams that all have issues, fatal flaws if you will, in regards to their aspirations to a Lombardi Trophy. All have an issue at a key position - quarterback - and some have issues that go deeper.

4. Lions - They may actually have the best quarterback in the division in John Kitna (and this might be the first time in Kitna's career that has EVER been written about him), and based on last year, Rod Marinelly might finally have this team heading in the right direction. But let's face two basic facts: The Ford Family ownership of this team has been an unending nightmare, and Matt Millen's tenure as a GM has been record shattering, and not in a good way. No team in the history of the NFL has had as many consecutive seasons with double-digits in the loss column, and I have a hard time buying that he's learned to be better than any of his in-division counterparts. If the Lions finish ahead of another team in the division, I'm guessing it has less to do with the Lions elevating their level of play than it does with the other team spitting the bit. I have a hard time seeing this team improving on their 7-9 season of last year, and considering their schedule gets considerably tougher after the first three games of their season, I wouldn't be surprised if they regressed to four wins.

3. Bears - The carousel goes around and around at the signal caller position, and it looks like Kyle Orton is getting the call again. You'd think someone there could pick a pro-caliber QB, but alas, no. But the real killer for this team is that the D is not what it once was, and lacks depth. I'm guessing in the vicinity of 8-8.

2. Vikings - Despite the deficiencies of Tavaris Jackson, I think this team will compete for the division, and may even win the division, but that's going to depend on three things. One - Jackson has to keep from making the mistake that kills the team. Two - the health of Adrian Peterson. The young running back racked up some hard miles in his rookie year, and breaking down is a strong possibility, and if that happens this team will plummet in the standings. His ability to pound the ball last season made the Minnesota defense better by keeping them rested. If he's not touching the ball, they pay. Three - the health of Aaron Rogers.

1. Packers - The Packers won 13 games last season and were a few plays away from the Super Bowl. Their only major change was at quarterback. Rogers has been in the system for three seasons already, has been solid in preseason, and was better against the Cowboys last season than Brett Favre. If Rogers stays healthy, the Pack wins the division, albeit not by much. Last year they were five games better than the 8-8 Vikings. This season they're maybe two games better, and maybe not even that.

The Conversation

Anyone that saw the Sunday night broadcast of the Sox-Yanks game was privy to the following -

ESPN's Peter Gammons said on Sunday night's Red Sox-Yankees game broadcast that the Red Sox have had "internal discussions" about Barry Bonds, but he considers a workout for the 43-year-old free agent unlikely. Red Sox pitcher and vocal Bonds critic Curt Schilling, who is out for the season, Monday morning on Boston sports radio station WEEI called the possibility of Bonds coming to Boston for the stretch run "three months of a PR nightmare." More from Schilling: "That would be an eye-opener for sure. I know Barry said in the past that he hates the city of Boston. I really don't know. I hadn't thought about that one, I didn't think that was on the radar."

Beyond the accuracy of Schill's statement, am I the only one who thinks the "discussion," the team's conversation regarding Bonds went something like this -

Theo Epstein and the Red Sox brain trust are holed up in a room late one night last week on Yawkey Way. Their faces illuminated by their laptops as they scour the scouting reports, looking for a contingency plan given their issues with David Ortiz's wrist.

"Carlos Beltran?" piped up one man from the shadows.

"Maybe," replied Epstein," but I have a hunch that the Mets will want to much. Besides, the man averages almost 100 strike outs per year. Besides, for a guy that's supposed to be a slugger, an average of just under 24 home runs per year for his career...it doesn't really cut it."

"Junior Griffey," asked another.

"The Reds will likely want more in prospects for him than we'll be willing to give. Now his teammate, Dunn...," said Epstein, "let's take a closer look at Dunn, put a value on him as a DH/outfielder. If Papi doesn't come along as hoped, we can probably get Dunn in the line-up almost everyday as a utility outfielder/first baseman/DH."

"We might have some egos to massage in the outfield if we do that."

"We'll cross that bridge if and when we come to it," said Epstein. "Any other ideas?"

"Hey," a voice came from the corner, "Bonds is still available."

The room goes silent as everyone stops to stare at the scout who suggested Bonds.

The man holds a straight face for all of about five seconds before exploding in laughter. The rest of the room followed suit. "Sorry, everybody," he said. "I had to say it."

"Can you imagine the field day the press would have with this," asked Epstein as he regained his composure."

"God, it would be like throwing raw meat to starving dogs," said another. "The fans would march on Fenway like the villagers on Frankenstein's castle."

As the laughter finally reduced to the punch-drunk chuckle of people working just a few too many hours, Epstein again surveyed the room. "Seriously, now, anyone else," he asked. "Damn that was funny."

I See Dumb People...

In my occasional rants about the stupid in sports, I would like to return to Sunday's game against the Yankees. When the Red Sox bullpen was having its fire-sale, coughing up Wakefield's lead like a two-pack smoker with emphysema, a play stuck in my craw. On a play where the ball rolled to the wall in the gap between Coco Crisp and JD Drew - the play that tied the game - there was a slim outside chance (in my opinion), that someone with a strong arm might have been able to make the play at the plate that would have ended the inning, preserving the Sox lead.

Instead, with Drew (who has a cannon for an arm) and Crisp (whose arm is more akin to silly putty) converging on the ball at almost exactly the same time, Crisp called drew off the ball, picked it up, turned, and fired...a ball that skittered on the ground most of the way to the cut-off man.

I understand that the centerfielder is in charge out there, but the player has to know the situation and his own limitations. Crisp had to know that Drew would have been able to get the ball to the infield with a harder, more accurate throw - or if he didn't, he should have.

Part Two -

The Detroit Lions are at it again - ganking the NFL's "Believe in Now" slogan for the upcoming season with the simple alteration to make the slogan a question rather than a statement - "Do You Believe in Now?"

I really think they should do this up like those "I'm with stupid ->" tee shirts which have the arrows pointing in opposite directions so that wearers can walk side by side, "<- I'm with stupid" with the arrows pointing at each other. Except I think the Lions should pair it with a tee shirt, or maybe put this on the back, that says, "Why should I, you dumb f^@% ?"

Nothing says stating a certainty like stating it with a question.

One last note -

Best wishes to Diamondbacks catcher Chris Snyder who fractured one of his testicles last week. I read up on what that "fracture" entails, and out of mercy to my male readers, will not post that here.

However, Mr. Snyder, may you heal quickly and completely.

A Raiders GM, A Lions GM, and a Knicks GM walk into a bar...

Once these people were at the top of their respective games.

Al Davis was Jerry Jones long before Jerry Jones was even a blip on the NFL radar. The maverick owner of the Raiders liked to cultivate his outsider's personae, often flipping a metaphorical finger at collectively bargained NFL deals.

The difference was that Davis was a football guy rather than a businessman like Jones.

He wasn't just any football guy, either. He was, once, highly respected both as a coach and a talent evaluator. After working his way up through the college ranks, he took over a Raiders franchise that had only nine wins in its first 42 games. That translates to a pitiful winning percentage of .214.

In Davis' first year at the helm the team went 10-4 and was unanimously voted AFL Coach of the Year for his efforts. In three seasons as a coach he put together a respectable 23-16-3 record, an increase of .333 over the team's previous winning percentage.

For roughly two decades (ending 1985), the Raiders, under Davis, won the division 13 times, and have for Championship rings (one AFL, three Super Bowls). Like him or hate him, he was once one of the foremost football minds in the NFL.

Matt Millen, picked in the second round of the 1980 draft by the aforementioned Davis, was among the best inside linebackers during a 12 year career in the 1980's and early '90's, mostly with the Oakland Raiders. He made the Pro-Bowl once (1988), was a two-time All-Pro('84, '85), and walked away from the game with four Super Bowl rings. Of the 180 games that he appeared in, he started 166. Not quite Hall of Fame, but it was good enough for people to remember who he was years after he retired.

From 1981 until his retirement in 1994, Isiah Thomas was one of the best point guards in the business. The leader of the Detroit Pistons, Thomas was as good as they come, being named one of the 50 greatest players in NBA history when the league celebrated its 50th anniversary.

The point guard was an integral piece to the puzzle in Detroit, making the All-Star Game 12 straight years while donning two championship rings and being named MVP of the Championship Series in 1990. Among his other honors is Olympic Gold and enshrinement in the NBA Hall of Fame.

Pundits speak of him as being part of a Golden Age of basketball, along with peers Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Larry Bird.

Now, all three of these people are both joke and punchline.

While Matt Millen might finally be showing some signs of growth as a general manager, a hint of learning, he now owns a record that no football insider believes will ever be approached - he has more seasons of double digit losses than any GM in the history of the sport.

The reason it's believed that Millen will always have that dubious honor? None of the insiders around the sport believe that anyone else can last this long without getting fired.

Since Millen's hiring, the Lions have compiled a 31-81 record, worst in the NFL. Last season was the team's best showing with him selecting the players and coaches. They won seven games. Previous to last season, his teams averaged a paltry four wins per season.

Since the Raiders loss in the 2002 Super Bowl to the Buccaneers, Davis has played musical coaches and made questionable player moves...at best.

The amazing thing about Davis' personnel moves is that they were questionable when he made them. With the exception of the acquisition of Randy Moss, there were virtually no moves that Davis made that weren't followed by the phrase, "what's he thinking, giving that guy that sort of contract?"

And he appears to have done it again, committing an obscene amount of money...the money you spend on difference makers, on middle of the road sort of talent - has beens and never will be's.

The result? Nineteen wins over the last five seasons. Less than four per season.

Thomas? Since coming to New York, he's been an absolute train wreck of an executive.

Twenty years after being presented the J. Walter Kennedy Citizenship Award, Thomas was found guilty of sexual harassment, and did nothing to help his image with his testimony in the case, and subsequent comments to the press. During the course of the trial, it was also testified that Thomas made racist comments on more than one occasion in regards to white people.

He has finished with 42 or fewer wins in five of his six full seasons as a coach, and has put together a brutally bad Knicks team with the highest payroll in the NBA. That team has gone a combined 52-100, with only 19 of the wins coming this season. They are on a pace for 22 wins and 60 losses. Only Miami is on pace for fewer wins in the East.

If the entire NBA finishes on the current pace, that will be the highest payroll in the league with fourth worst record, and average of only 27.5 wins per season for Thomas as GM and coach.

While a joke, even a pitiful punchline to fans of other teams around the respective leagues, these guys have been nothing more than nightmares to fans of the Raiders, Lions, and Knicks.

Swan song a mostly forgettable tune

The longest tenured Patriot was finally getting in on the act.

Troy Brown would be active.

A career special teams demon, he would be returning punts.

He returned six for 55 yards. A respectable 9.2 yard average, with a physical 28 yard return that brought the ball back to mid-field.

Unfortunately he also had the one that clanged off his face-mask giving the Dolphins the ball back after a sterling series by the defense.

His day fielding punt returns was like the offense's day in microcosm - Laurence Maroney battered the Dolphins for over 150 yards on 14 carries, while Jabar Gaffney hauled in five passes for 82 yards and a touchdown. The stars, on the other hand, failed to shine - Brady while good, still tossed two picks, and both Wes Welker and Randy Moss dropped passes that would have kept drives alive in the second half when the offense put a big donut on the scoreboard. It was the first time all season the Patriots offense was shut out in a half.

Your prolific offense getting shut down in the second half by the Miami Dolphins is not going to put any sort of fear into the likes of the Colts, or the Jaguars come football's second season.

On the positive side of the ledger -

Wes Welker is one touchdown away from breaking the Patriots' record for receptions in a season, currently held by Brown with 101.

Stephen Gostkowski set a new league record for extra points in a season.

The Patriots broke the record for touchdowns scored in a season with 71 and counting. The previous record was held by the 1984 Dolphins.

The Pats are six points shy of tying the mark for most points by a team.

Randy Moss needs two touchdown receptions to break Jerry Rice's record of 22, and Tom Brady needs two TD passes to break Peyton Manning's record of 49.

The team tied their own record of 18 straight regular season wins, and are poised to break that with a win next week.

And with a current passer rating of 119.7, Manning's season record of 121.1 for a season is within reach (although if Brady makes decisions against the Giants like he did against the Jets and Dolphins, it just isn't happening).

Not to be lost in all this is the fact that the Patriots dominated an opponent on the ground for the second straight week, ringing up 196 yards on 25 carries - a 7.8 yard per carry clip that even against the deficient Dolphins is a good sign heading into the post season. The supposedly run-deficient Patriots entered the game with the 12th ranked running game in the league - not bad for the noted weakness of the offense.

Other thoughts...

Tom Coughlin can't be overwhelmed by the Giants mistake filled win over the Buffalo Bills. His playoff bound team got even more dinged up as it did everything it could in the first half to hand Buffalo this game on a silver platter. If New York plays like this against just about any other playoff contender in the post season they will be one and done.

The Browns had a chance to push Pittsburgh's back against the wall and possibly win the division with a win over the sad-sack Cincinnati Bengals and couldn't seal the deal. Ditto for Green Bay in regards to having a chance at forcing the Cowboys to have to travel to the Frozen Tundra for the conference championship game. Instead Brett Favre and the Pack spit the bit, losing 35-7 to a Bears team that is a shadow of its former self.

Minnesota, also with a chance to seal their place in the playoffs also blew it, dropping a game to the Redskins 32-21. The only teams that came up big in keeping their playoff hopes alive were the Titans who squeaked by the Jets to even their record with the 9-6 Browns (Cleveland holds the tie breakers), and the Redskins who have evened their record with Minnesota at 8-7, but now hold the tie-breaker by virtue of this weekend's victory over the Vikings.

So I was wrong - the Lions will go 7-9, not 6-10. I gotta find me some employers like the Ford family. Evidently anything short of blowing the company to Kingdom Come won't get you fired.

One last thought -

Does anyone out there suppose Miami fans watched that game and thought, "why can't the Dolphins get players like Heath Evans, Wes Welker, Kyle Eckel, and Junior Seau...wait...um...nevermind. Dumbass GM."

Signs your team is headed in the wrong direction

• When ESPN promotes your game, they announce, "watch the Bears led by returner Devin Hester take on..." Let's face it, if the biggest star/most exciting player on the team you root for is the kick/punt returner, your team is in trouble.
• Matt Millen is the general manager of the team you root for. This needs no further explanation.
• Your general manager decides, in spite of all the other glaring weaknesses on the team, to let the team's leading wide receiver go in free-agency, and replaces him in the draft with a an injured kick returner that's not projected to be a number one receiver in the league. To make it worse, the GM let's him go to a division rival.
• Pundits struggle to justify why your team took a third-down back with a top five pick over a defensive end with nine-and-a-half sacks in his second year...and continue to claim that they still would have taken that running back over the defensive end if they re-did the 2006 draft today.
• The best excuse your defense can come up with for why they lost a game is that the refs were against them. Not that their own coordinator called a time-out, not that they killed themselves with obvious and blatant penalties - no, it has to be the refs' faults.
• Your franchise quarterback cops a guilty plea to a federal offense, players publicly feud with your new head coach on the sideline, and then said coach bails on the team 13 games into his contract. Quality judgement there by that front office.
• The best thing that can be said about a team's season is that they got their first win before the Dolphins.

Let's see - that would be, in succession: Chicago, Detroit, Miami, New Orleans, Baltimore, Atlanta, and St. Louis. Combined, those teams have a 29-69 record (aided greatly by the Saint's 7-7 record, and overall a rip-roaring .296 winning percentage). Are there other teams with problems? You bet. Are all of these teams heading in the wrong direction? You bet.

On a different note...

Over Thanksgiving, my brother-in-law noted some guy in the press bitching about the way Belichick dressed. If it bother people, fine. Is it Belichick probably thumbing his nose at the deal the NFL has with Reebok? Yeah, it probably is.

However...

Here's the funny thing - my wife was scanning the Patriots on-line store, presumably for a Christmas gift for me. While there, she noted something interesting - the Pats are marketing a Belichick hoodie as well as a Belichick throw. For the hoodie they're charging $75.00 and $45.00 for the throw.

What other team is able to market clothing under the name of the coach? Sure, you'll see the "like the polo worn on the sidelines by Mike Holmgren," or one of the other coaches, but you won't see it listed as "Holmgren Sideline Polo," it will be listed as, "Coach's Sideline Polo."

Welcome to Patriot Nation. It love's its coach.

Scraping the bottom

Sometimes in professional sports, scraping bottom isn't about finishing last. Sometimes its about the fact that the franchise is run into the ground for so long that employees feel like they go to work in a cave somewhere far below the level of the rest of the respective league - bad drafting, bad coaching, bad free agent signings, bad executive decisions (budget, contracts, etc.).

Some teams are so bad in a given season that they become a benchmark against which other teams are measured - the 1962 New York Mets won only 40 games; in the team's first season the Buccaneers lost all 14 regular season games, becoming the first NFL team to do so in the Super Bowl era; the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers won nine while losing 73.

Sometimes, as I said, it's less about the single season then it is about sustained periods of putrescence. Some teams just historically have issues - the Cubs, Browns, and Clippers have been the sad sacks of their respective leagues for years.

But who are the teams scraping bottom now?

Let's start with the worst of the worst -

The New York Knicks - The Isiah Years. Not including the partial season of 2003 - 2004 that Isiah Thomas has presided over this team as team president/GM and/or coach, and not including this season's sterling start, Isiah Thomas has managed to pad his resume with the following facts -

• The team has an aggregate record of 89 -157. Currently the team is on pace for roughly a 25 win season.
• Thomas himself has been embroiled in a sexual harassment scandal, found guilty by a jury of his peers.
• He has put together a team of individuals with the highest payroll in the league, but has never been able to get the team to .500.
• He has publicly feuded with his team's biggest star, Stephon Marbury, who claims he has the goods on Thomas and also admitted to sleeping with a team intern.
• Owner James Dolan has publicly supported Thomas, going as far as to say that he believed that Thomas was doing a good job and had the team headed in the right direction.

Sure, there are other teams that have finished below the Knicks in the standings (last year's Celtics for one), but none have had the combination of futility on the court, in front office, and in the court rooms as the Knicks have had.

The Knicks were, at one point, one the NBA's most storied franchises. Now they're the punchline.

A close second? The Matt Millen Detroit Lions - Like the Dolan owned Knicks, the ownership of the Lions is in serious denial about their general manager, Matt Millen. Millen has drafted poorly, made poor hirings of coaches, and has played the free-agent market like a neophyte stock broker on Wall Street. Like the Knicks, there have been teams that finished behind them, but no other team has been as consistently bad.

To wit, under Millen,

• Detroit had an assistant coach arrested for indecent exposure. Said coach faced no significant consequences from the team.
• The team has set a record for futility with six straight seasons of double digit losses, and are sitting at 6-6 this season after a four game losing streak (no general manager in NFL history has presided over any team with as many 10+ losses per season). With games remaining against Dallas, San Diego, Kansas City, and Green Bay, a seventh straight season isn't out of the question.
• Has gone through at least three head coaches.
• Repeatedly drafted wide receivers with a top ten pick when the team had glaring needs at other places like offensive and defensive line.

Number three is, of course, the Miami Dolphins - Since 1998, this might be a team with some of the worst personnel decisions in the NFL. Consider that starters tend to hit their stride in their third or fourth year - particularly the later round picks.

And the result of their drafting futility?

• In the six drafts from 1998 to 2003, Miami had 59 choices. It exercised 46 of those picks and used 13 other choices in trades to acquire veteran players. Only Ricky Williams, acquired in a draft day deal as one of those 13 other choices, is on the current Dolphins roster (with thanks to Peter King for these numbers).
• They weathered the Nick Saban experiment.
• And while the jury is out, picking a glorified and injured kick returner with their first rounder just goes against conventional wisdom from a personnel standpoint.

Amazing for a team that once was a perennial power in the AFC East.

Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, and the Baltimore Orioles - Sure, I'm grouping these three together because these three teams prove that it doesn't matter how big or small a team's budget is when ownership has no idea what it's doing. Continuing a recent history of futility, the Pirates and Devil Rays have become nothing more than glorified triple A teams cultivating talent for the rest of the league. The Orioles and George Steinbrenner wannabe, Peter Angelos has shown that a team can go out and spend money and still suck.

Were it not for the fact that the Marlins have established a pattern of binging and purging in order to win championships, they would make this list as well.

NFL Questions: AFC South

So...it appears that I have touched a few nerves with supporters of a few teams...and evidently there is at least one Detroit fan out there who is indeed a Matt Millen fan. Who knew?

A quick note before I start on the AFC South...

I have found that these NFL questions pieces are attracting feedback from readers who I am completely unfamiliar with. Well, welcome to the site. I welcome all feedback, and criticism - however, if I feel as though I am being personally attacked, I will respond in kind...btw, to the Baltimore fan who was defending McNair - I understand your point about the running game, but I still think the bigger issue is McNair - and no, it wasn't just the national press that was wondering about McNair's effectiveness last season: I live in an area where I see the Baltimore papers, and they weren't often kind to the signal caller.

Also understand, sometimes my questions about a team are the same being asked by the national media because a player or organization did more last season or during the off-season to enforce the question rather than the answer. These aren't predictions - these are places where, in the off-season, I perceive a team to have an issue. It doesn't mean that the issue will remain during the season. It's a fact that Rex Grossman was alternately the best or worst quarterback in the league on any given Sunday last season. It is a fact that the Bears coaches have been spending an inordinate amount of time trying to fix what they think may be a mechanical problem with his delivery in order to get rid of Bad Grossman. It is a fact that the Bears will struggle if Bad Grossman shows up. If he can even be mediocre Grossman through the entire season, it will likely be an improvement over a quarterback that had less than a 25.0 QB rating in 25 % of his games, and lower than a 2.0 in two of those.

If you come for debate, which I always welcome, come well armed.

And now for the AFC South, odd place that it is.

Houston Texans - Have the Texans done enough during the off-season to bolster their offensive line? A lot of pundits will ask about the acquisition of Matt Schaub and his roughly 50 percent completion percentage, and of course will make the comparisons to back-ups turn-bust-starters Rob Johnson and AJ Feeley. While this is a legitimate question and concern, the Texans problems since their inception has been the lack of a line that can protect. Sure they've produced a couple of 1000-yard running backs, but run blocking and pass blocking aren't the same thing.

If they haven't fixed the blocking, then it won't matter if they have Peyton Manning in their backfield. The results will be no different with Schaub than they were with David Carr.

Indianapolis Colts - Many will question the quality of a defense that was horrible during the regular season in light of the defections of close to half the starters, but the Colts have already proven they can overcome horrible defense. Can they overcome the loss of left tackle Tarik Glenn? Glenn's sudden retirement will put the Colts' newly drafted tackle Tony Ugoh- who was supposed to be Glenn's replacement down the road - to the test. If he struggles with the top pass rushing end from the opposing teams, look for some major changes to happen to the Colts offense, such as the tight ends being kept in for extra protection.

There has been talk of others playing the spot, such as switching Ryan Diem from right to left. The bottom line remains, if whoever plays on that side struggles, then the Colts become more limited in creating the mismatches they love in the passing game.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Beaten by teams like the Texans (twice), Bills, and Redskins, but with wins against the Cowboys, Colts, and Eagles, the big question to me is at signal caller. Maurice Jones-Drew proved more than adequate at running back, but the team again found itself relying on David Garrard due to an injury sustained by Byron Leftwich. The question that Jags fans have to be asking themselves is whether these signal-callers are the ones that can lead them to the promised land. Carbon copies of each other, Leftwich's development has been hindered by his inability to stay healthy, and Garrard's by his inability to beat Leftwich out for the starting job.

If either manages to start all 16 games, the team has a chance at the playoffs, otherwise it's likely to be another third place finish.

Tennessee Titans - There are a lot of questions for Tennessee and few answers. Teams have seen Vince Young and will prepare differently for him, and that could be cause for the old sophomore slump question, but I think any slump suffered here might have more to do with whether or not the Titans can produce a running game. To me that says that Young's success and progress are directly tied with either Chris Brown's health, or whether or not LenDale White has managed to pull his own head out of his ass and comes into camp in shape this year.

If the Titans aren't able to produce a running game from its running backs, Young will literally be left holding the ball. If that's the case, then Tennessee is going to see its top pick from last year take a beating which is never good for the development of a young quarterback.

NFL Questions: NFC North

Not too long ago the "Black and Blue" division boasted a still effective Bret Favre, a prolific offense in Minnesota, a solid Bears squad with a linebacking corps led by Brian Urlacher and Rosevelt Colvin, and...sorry to say it, a Detroit team that even then was the league punchline. Now the division boasts the NFC Champion Bears and little else.

Chicago Bears - Can Rex Grossman correct his flaws? Grossman was alternately the best quarterback or the worst quarterback in the league on any given Sunday last season, seldom ending up in between. More often than not, after a hot start, Grossman played ugly, and the Bears often won in spite of him - usually because of strong play from the defense, special teams, and the running backs. With a somewhat revamped backfield, the pressure is on Grossman to get better and be more consistent. If he shows little to no improvement, the Bears will have trouble getting back to the Super Bowl, and could have trouble making the post season.

Detroit Lions - Who has learned the bigger lesson during the GM tenure of Matt Millen - Millen or the Ford family? Did Millen finally learn how to evaluate and choose personnel, and has the Ford family figured out that this should Millen's last chance as the GM - a chance that would have been long gone had he managed any other NFL team like this? If the Lions flop again this year, look for the infighting in the Ford family to go to a new level as the son (never a fan of Millen's) makes a new and harder push for the GM's ouster.

Green Bay Packers - Can the Green Bay win with what they have right now? Other than at quarterback, this is a young team. A really young team. Last year they started three rookies on offense alone. At times they shined, at other times they got their hats handed to them, so the question becomes - did they get enough experience, or ar there going to be close to half-a-dozen players suffering through a sophomore slump? If they're not ready for prime-time, this is going to be a team going through severe growing pains.

Minnesota Vikings - Do the Vikings have a legitimate starting quarterback? No one really knows yet whether or not Tavaris Jackson is the answer - if he's not, then who is? Brooks Bollinger? Drew Henson? Tyler Thigpen? Yes, they did the right thing when they gave up on Duante Culpepper, who may be done, but they don't seem to even have a good stop-gap while trying to develop Jackson - if he's even the solution. If he's not, then we're looking at one of three teams that could easily slide to the bottom of the division.

How are these guys not on the Bengals?

According to a December article in the Washington Post approximately 35 NFL players were arrested over the previous 12 months – since then there has been at least one more arrest of a Bengal, which means that the Bengals which account for 3.125 percent of the active players in the league account for approximately 25 percent of the arrests.

I would like to propose a rule change: Any player arrested for a felony offense, or on drug charges is to immediately be traded to the Bengals for a player of equal value for tracking purposes. Once there are no players left of equal value without criminal records, then the Raiders will become the new repository for said players.

The following are the folks that I can’t believe that the Bengals personnel office missed on (and these are just the ones I can remember), keeping in mind that some have been acquitted and some are still facing their day in court –

Offense -

Ruben Droughns, RB Browns – Arrested in May 2006 on one count of assault and two counts of harassment. Also acquitted of earlier drunk driving infraction.

Michael Vick, QB Falcons – Repeated links to marijuana including the recent fiasco at a Miami airport when Vick refused to surrender a water bottle to homeland security officials. Also, has a known alias (Ron Mexico) that is linked to a sex-related civil suit.

Koren Robinson, WR Vikings/Packers - Released during training camp after being arrested on charges of drunken driving and fleeing from police.

Randy Moss, WR Raiders – Past links to marijuana use and resisting arrest. Currently doing everything in his power to get traded including yell and swear at his new head coach.

Ricky Williams, RB Dolphins – Drug issues.

Defense -

Joe Cullen, Asst Coach D Line, Lions – Arrested twice during 2006. In August for an alleged indecent and obscene conduct issue at a fast food drive-in. The second at the beginning of September was for alleged drunk driving

Terrence Kiel, S Chargers - arrested by Drug Enforcement Administration agents at the team's practice facility in September on charges of transporting and possessing a controlled substance.

Steve Foley, LB Chargers - Shot and wounded by an off-duty police officer after a high speed chase for which Foley was charged with drunken driving.

Dwight Smith, S Vikings - Cited by Minneapolis police for indecent conduct in a stairwell outside a downtown nightclub with an unnamed woman.

Sean Taylor, S Redskins – As of last January was facing three counts of aggravated assault and potentially faced up to 46 years in prison. Also has had an issue with spitting on other players.

Adam “Pacman” Jones, CB Titans – Arrested for assault for spitting on a woman at a nightclub in October. Also had a previous run in for which he was charged with public intoxication and disorderly conduct.

Ricky Manning Jr, CB Bears - Arrested was arrested for assault with a deadly weapon in April.

Tank Johnson, DT Bears – Arrested several times over the last couple of season for a variety of offenses including felony gun charges, six misdemeanor counts of unlawful possession of a weapon without a Firearm Owner's Identification card and aggravated assault and resisting arrest.