Getting ahead of myself

So...

A couple of quick items - What happened in San Diego was just ugly, and the defense has me concerned. More than Castle. Right now Castle isn't significantly different from the 2001 Tom Brady (through six Brady-games they were 3-4 overall, 3-3 under Brady). Unfortunately, I'm not convinced that this defense is as good as the 2001 D. After six games the Pats were 3-3 in 2001.

Things began happening in 2001 that I don't see happening now. The offensive line began to gel back then. It doesn't look like it's even beginning to now, and it suffered key injuries that will slow it down even more. The defense, which sent a message in its game against the Colts that season (what Pats fan can forget the Bryan Cox hit), looks more like the pavement defense of 2002 (constantly getting steamrolled).

For this team to make noise, they need to get better. Particularly on defense. It's how they won in 2001, it's how they need to win now. The division is wide open and the Bills right now are best positioned to get to the second season.

Let's hope they rise to the occasion.

Over on the diamond....

The Red Sox are in a big hole.

No excuses.

The Rays have risen to every challenge the Sox have thrown at them. Every time the Sox crept within striking distance of the division lead, the Rays fended them off. The Sox put them in an early hole with their win in Tampa.

The Sox spit the bit, and I do think this is on Terry Francona, in game two with a two run lead when Josh Beckett had shown inning after inning that he couldn't protect a lead. I'm not calling for Francona's head. He's earned the pass on something like this - more often than not since he's been with the Sox, its worked out for him.

The bottom line is that the Rays are on the verge of their first World Series appearance in team history.

I'm not giving up hope - the Sox had their backs to the wall before (three game to none lead against the Yankees in 2004, down three games to one against the Indians last year...sound familiar) and managed to dig themselves out. Twice, okay. But three times, I have a hard time believing they can dig themselves out of this hole. I won't say it's one of their own making either, because that would diminish what Tampa has accomplished.

It would also diminish what Boston has accomplished.

And neither team deserves that.

Hey, Tampa, if you win, I'll be rooting for you, if for no other reason than the knife in the Steinbrenners' backs that it would be for the second lowest payroll to walk away with the title.

Sometimes you just have to see the beauty in all things.

As for coach of the year, it's hard not to consider Joe Maddon the hands-down winner. He took a team that went from worst and was a perennial joke in the American League East to the verge of the World Series. Even if the Sox somehow manage to pull it off and eliminate the Rays from the playoffs, Maddon deserves the award.

People will argue this, but Francona deserves consideration. Hank Steinbrenner whined about the injuries to the Yankees (somehow $210+ million doesn't buy enough depth to overcome injuries, wow, I guess it just doesn't go as far as it used to), but Francona kept the Sox in the race in spite of no effective number five starter, injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Beckett, not to mention losing JD Drew and David Ortiz for close to a third of the year due to injury, losing Mike Lowell for periods of time to an injury that he continued to try and play through, and dealing with a petulant Manny Ramirez.

He doesn't deserve to beat Maddon, but the only person that deserves additional consideration in the American League is Ron Gardenhire in Minnesota. The fact that the Twins were even in the mix at the end of the season is nothing short of a miracle given the talent that team cut loose in the off-season.

Back

I am back from covering the World Beer Festival in Durham.

I highly recommend the event for any beer fans out there. They hold it at the home of the Durham Bulls - an absolutely beautiful ballpark. We stayed a ten minute walk away at the Morehead Manor Bed and Breakfast. If you ever have reason to be in Durham, I both recommend staying at the B&B and visiting the stadium for a game (season permitting).

Now onto the busy sports news of the last couple of days. I'm going to start with the Pats before I get to the Sox...

I was happy to see the Pats win. There were a number of things that I found encouraging that the team did on Sunday. However, there were times that the offensive line looked overwhelmed, and there were times that the Niners gashed the Patriots in the middle of the defensive line. Those things keep me concerned moving forward.

As does the fact that Cassel has only once thrown the ball away to avoid the sack.

Fairly or unfairly, Cassel will be compared to Tom Brady for the whole season. Unfairly, it will be to the Tom Brady of 2007, not 2001 when Brady, like Cassel, was still wet behind the ears and filling in for an accomplished veteran. I'm not going to make the mistake of comparing him to Brady.07.

No. What I'm going to do is look at what an untested, unproven late round draft-pick does from start to start against what another untested, late round draft pick did when he got his shot.

And the biggest difference between the two? After four appearances, including three starts (for both) Brady had been sacked eight times for 45 yards. Cassel has absorbed 15 sacks for 68 yards - a pace that will get him sacked 60 times during the season (Brady was sacked 41 times in 14 starts/15 games. Even projecting for Cassel's 16 games, Brady still would only have been sacked 47 times). He has to get better at just getting rid of the ball when there's nothing there.

Otherwise, this is how the two compare -

Cassel - 3-1 (2-1 as the starter), 70 of 104 for 707 yards (67.3 completion percentage), 3 TD's, 3 INT's.

Brady - 2-2 (2-1 as the starter and the team was 3-2 overall), 63 of 111 for 664 yards (56.8 completion percentage), 2 TD's, 0 INT's.

Brady's offense had turned the ball over eight times in the four games in which he appeared, to six times for the Cassel led teams.

The other interesting stat lies on the other side of the ball. The defenses in both seasons for the first four games in which they were dealing with the back-up signal caller on offense gave up exactly 79 points. The defense in 2001 forced six turnovers from the fateful Jets game in which Bledsoe injured himself, through to their 29-26 victory over the Chargers (putting the team at -2 in the turnover ratio). This year's defense has forced five (putting this year's team at -1).

As I've said before - I don't expect Cassel to develop into Tom Brady. But I think that Patriot Nation needs to back off. Despite his flaws, and I acknowledge he has 'em and they do worry me, I think we need to be patient with him.

Four of the team's next six opponents make up four of the five worst pass defenses in the league. Throw in a Colts team that seems to be clawing and scrounging for every win it gets, the hardest game between now and week 11 appears to be with the Bills.

If Cassel can guide the team to a 4-2 record during that stretch, not out of the question given the fact that the only team that looks truly dominant right now is playing in the Meadowlands (and I'm not talking about Gang Green), a 7-3 record at game ten puts the Pats in good position for a ten win season, and a likely playoff berth given that the only team in the AFC that looks en route to 12+win potential is Tennessee.

And onto the playoffs...

And so the Red Sox move on.

It seems like they're doing it differently each time.

In 2004 they had to come back from the brink. They did it with veterans - it was Curt Schilling and Derek Lowe and Pedro Martinez. It was David Ortiz, Dave Roberts, Manny Ramirez, Trot Nixon and Kevin Millar. The list goes on, but it was a largely veteran squad of mostly imports that liked to go by the name "the Idiots".

It was appropriate. They were loud, grungy, silly and had a lot of fun.

In 2007 the team absolutely dominated the Angels in the first round, scrapped around with the Indians in the second, winning that series 4-3. In the games the Sox won that round they averaged 10 runs per game while holding the Indians to an average of 2 runs per game. And then the Sox stomped on the hottest team in baseball, sweeping the World Series.

This year the Sox are getting it done with a lot of home-grown talent mixed with mid-season acquisitions. Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Jed Lowrie, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Bay, Mark Kotsay.

This year there are no Colorado Rockies-type teams in the playoffs.

There were the Angels who won more games than any other team in baseball. Three more than the Rays and five more than the Red Sox. They still buy into their own hype, believing they were better than the Red Sox.

Yes, the Red Sox got lucky bounces, and didn't drop balls, and didn't miss the clutch hits - except in game three when they had multiple opportunities to put the game away. They did things that the top teams are expected to do - perform under pressure, make the plays when needed. John Lackey can believe that the Angels are the better team all he wants. It doesn't make it true.

The better team doesn't outright miss getting the glove on routine grounders at short. The centerfielder doesn't pull up and fail to call off the second baseman on a short pop-fly to shallow center, a move that costs the team three runs. The better team's closer doesn't spit the bit in real pressure situations. I could go on, but I won't.

I do want to touch on Jon Lester, though.

He got jobbed out of a win in game four, but that's okay, the team won. Lester has been absolutely dominant in the post season, throwing 22 and 2/3's scoreless innings over three starts. Only one lefty in the history of the sport has thrown more in October - Babe Ruth with 29. Now we're seeing the team head into a potential seven game series against the Rays with a rotation that should see both Josh Beckett and Jon Lester pitch twice if it goes to a seven game series.

While the Rays have been impressive this year, this is new territory for them, but it's old hat for the Olde Town Team. Just because it's old hat, however, doesn't mean it's a sure thing...which brings me to my last thought.

Yes, I want to see the Sox win it all again - but I won't be crushed if the Rays do (I think that the eventual winner of the World Series will come out of the American League). Why, one might ask, wouldn't I be upset at the Rays winning?

Well, I won't lie - I would be disappointed if the Sox didn't make it, but there's a certain poetic MLB flipping of the metaphorical finger to the Steinbrenners should the team with the second lowest payroll in the league walk away with the championship. There's just something beautiful about that. Maybe no more than seeing the Sox win their third in five seasons, but it's still pretty damn good.

Panic in Patriot Nation

There are a lot of Patriots fans out there that don't seem to pay close attention to what's going on around the league, or that even know their history. I know that, for the most part, if you're reading this, I'm preaching to the choir, but I still have to get this off my chest.

After the beat down the Pats suffered at the hands of the Dolphins this weekend, a lot of the fans on the message boards, particularly at the Boston Globe and Yahoo, are calling for the Pats to sign Duante Culpepper. Yeah, the same Culpepper that was having trouble playing his way out of a paper bag when he had the Baltimore power running game behind him. The same Culpepper that is failing to generate interest from Kansas City, Detroit, and Cleveland - all winless teams suffering from poor quarterback play as much as from anything else.

Consider since 2001, as a starter, Culpepper has a record of 30 wins and 44 losses, has started 16 games only twice during that time, has averaged 11.1 interceptions per season (but 17 per 16 games), 15.5 touchdowns per season, and has been sacked 3.2 times per start (to put some of that into perspective - Tom Brady has been sacked an average of 1.8 times per start, or an average of 22.4 fewer times over every 16 game season; and 12.5 INT's per 16 games).

Sure, people aren't clamoring for him to replace a struggling Brady - they're clamoring for him to replace what they perceive as a struggling Cassel. Before you go calling for the head of the Pats back-up, think about this -

Culpepper is not the answer - if you think he is, if he was such an answer, why aren't any other team's looking at him? he's done.

As for Cassel -

a) That game wasn't his fault. he didn't give up 38 points. The defense seldom stopped a team that couldn't win more than one game last year. With the Dolphins far out in front, they were able to load up against the running game and basically dare the Patriots to win on the arms of Cassel.

b) A look at Brady's second game? a 30-10 loss to the dolphins in which he passed for a total of 86 yards, no TD's, no INT's and was sacked 4 times for 17 yards of losses. Cassel passed for 131 yards and a TD (1 int), and was sacked 4 times for 19 yards. additionally, the Brady led pats in that 2001 game lost three fumbles. The Patriots lost only one turnover this past Sunday.

Back in '01, after the team got shellacked, Pats fans just saw another losing season ahead of them with a back-up slogging his way through the season in place of his more accomplished predecessor.

No - Cassel is no Tom Brady, but Brady didn't light it up his first two games as a starter either -

Brady's line through his first two NFL starts...

25 for 47 (53.2 percent completion rate), 254 yards, 5 sacks for 26 yards, no TD's, no INT's.

Cassel -

35 for 54 (64.8 percent completions), 296 yards, 7 sacks for 28 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

If anything, Cassel has had a slightly better first two games than Brady. Be patient.

This and that...

Make no mistake, I want the Red Sox to repeat as World Series champs. However, given Hank Steinbrenner's whining about how divisional play and the wild card give other teams an unfair competitive advantage (yes, the same Steinbrenner whose payroll is roughly $70.4 million higher than the next highest team and $90 million more than the Dodgers that he singled out) I would be perfectly happy seeing the Rays, who carry a payroll roughly a quarter that of the Yanks, walk home with this year's championship.

I would be happy to see the Brewers win, even at the expense of the Sox (not thrilled, mind you), but it would be a nice FU to the way the Steinbrenner family has done business.

Anyone else waiting for the Ford Family to say April Fools, no we really still have Matt Millen as our GM. The fact the man set a new standard for futility as a GM is impressive - particularly in an era that has seen the likes of Carl Peterson of the Chiefs, Jay Zygmunt of the Rams, Bill Bavasi of the Mariners, and, of course, Isiah Thomas of the Knicks. The fact he finagled a contract extension during that stretch is nothing less than puzzling. It never fails to amaze me that Lions fans didn't march on the stadium with torches and pitchforks.

Speaking of puzzling - how did Omar Minaya manage a contract extension in the middle of a second consecutive collapse?

Finally, with all the hits cycling has taken in the last two years, all the suspensions of many of the sport's top talents, am I the only one out there thinking that Lance Armstrong, in spite of his age, should be considered the favorite to win next year's Tour de France? I also suspect, considering he's riding gratis, that this is, more or less, a BIG FU to the French.

Master of his destiny and other thoughts

• Justin Masterson is going to make it hard for the Red Sox to justify keeping him in Pawtucket. Masterson is now 1-0 in two starts spanning 12.1 innings and a minuscule 1.46 ERA. It could have been below one had the bullpen held when it took over the game.

• Am I the only one that was worried that Masterson wouldn't get the much deserved win when Terry Francona went to the bullpen?

• Within two years the Sox starting rotation is going to be Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, and Masterson. I think that Buchholz or Masterson could still go in a trade - but it's going to have to be an absolute can't miss trade that will help the team for years, or Sox fans will have Theo's head on a pike.

• Watching the NBA playoffs I think I can say without equivocation that the Celtics are a different team when Rajon Rondo is sitting on the bench. The interesting thing is that Eddie House has been playing like a man possessed the last couple of games, but there has been little trickle-down from him to his teammates, whereas Rondo sets a tempo and intensity that has seemed to be infectious when he's on the court.

• For all the regular season promotion of the Celtics' new Big Three as being Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce, in the post-season its been Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo, with Allen a virtual no-show. If Allen can find his game, then opponents are going to be in trouble.

• Considering the overall age of the Celtics, it would be nice to see them steal a game in Detroit and maybe get a little rest before the finals. That said, Detroit has been the team that has concerned me the most. Of all the teams the C's have played this post-season, they're the one I think can steal one in the Gahden and could send the Celtics packing.

• I don't know what to think of the NFL owners opting out of the current agreement with the NFLPA. For pretty much the last two decades the two groups have been able to hammer out agreements before any real strife, but I have a hunch that this negotiation is going to be more contentious than anything since the lock-out in the 1980's.

Quick shots from Yankee Land...

• Hank Steinbrenner has to be on the verge of an apoplectic fit. Between a construction worker who happens to be a Red Sox fan jinxing the new stadium, the Sox riding atop the AL East and the Yanks languishing at the bottom, and his team struggling and looking either too old, or not yet ready for prime time, the clock is ticking on the time bomb that is Steinbrenner.

• After pitching over his head in his last five starts, Mike Mussina returned to form against the Orioles, lasting only two-thirds of an inning and giving up seven runs. Granted, only one run was earned (although watching the highlights, I don't know that I completely believe Yahoo's box on that), but at least six were scored with two out. Mussina just couldn't get out of the inning.

• Speaking of pitching that's going to contribute to Hank's head popping like a bloated tick, the Renaissance of young pitching in Fenway is going to give the man a conniption. The would-be veteran aces of both the Sox (Beckett) and Yanks (Pettitte) are struggling, but the number two's - Matsuzaka and Wang - aren't. However, Matsuzaka is looking like the ace he was in Japan while Wang looks like the number two pitcher he is. However, the real bad news comes from the home-grown products...The vaunted young starters, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, are a combined 0-7 with a 9.00 and 8.48 ERA respectively. There are two quality starts between them, and the Yankees 2-10 in their combined 12 starts. I guarantee you that Hank is eying not only the 5-2 Johan Santana, but the Red Sox young arms have to be what will put his snit over the top. Masterson, Lester, and Buchholz are a combined 6-5 with a no-hitter and two complete games.

• Hank also couldn't have been happy to be reminded of Alex Rodriguez's prowess at the plate when it doesn't matter.
  

Tuesday morning observations

New game against the Indians...same result

Great win by the Red Sox on Monday night. It was nice to see the Olde Towne Team dig themselves out of a 4-1 hole.

Once again there was some good, bad, and some ugly in the outing.

Jon Lester cruised through the first three innings without giving up a hit, and then struggled in the fourth and fifth innings en route to giving up four runs in four and a third.

David Ortiz continued to struggle at the plate, yet went 2-5. In the process he managed to raise his batting average roughly 30 points to finish the game hitting .104. His hits weren't pretty, but both took advantage of the "Ortiz Shift," poking the ball to left both times. The second hit would have been an out had the Indians played Ortiz straight up rather than with the shift.

With the Red Sox having fought back for the tie in the ninth, Manny Ramirez had a shot best described by the following line from Bull Durham - Man that ball got outta here in a hurry. I mean anything travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?

The Ramirez shot came off of already beleaguered Indians closer Joe Borowski who blew his second save of the season last night. Borowksi's season line - 2 saves, 2 blown saves, 2 losses, no wins. Right now the Cleveland closer accounts for 25 percent of the Indians' losses.

Concrete...

Athletes are a superstitious bunch.

When I ran track in high school I wore the same sweats to every meet and had a green bandanna that I would tie around my left ankle during warm-ups. By spring track of my senior year, after three full spring seasons and two winter seasons, I was tying a torn and frayed piece of green cloth around that ankle before warming up.

For me it was less a superstition thing than the creation of a routine that would allow me to focus on the races in front of me. But plenty of players believe they play well because they eat eggs the night before a game, or because they tug on their batting gloves thirteen times between every pitch of an at bat, or because they wear the same underwear every game.

So a construction worker buried a David Ortiz jersey in the concrete of the new Yankee Stadium.

It bothered Hank Steinbrenner enough that he had the concrete torn up in the effort to find and dispose of the jersey. And they're threatening legal action against the worker.

That's insane on both counts.

Let's face a couple of basic facts regarding this -

The jersey was not visible, nor did it have any impact on the structural integrity of the stadium. As such, what Steinbrenner did was nothing more than optional. I know that if I'm a judge in this case, I'm throwing it out of my court. I would have the same reaction were this the Red Sox victimized in building a new stadium. It's ludicrous and I can't believe that the Yankees' general counsel doesn't realize this.

On that same note - the Yankees have publicly stated that they might pursue criminal charges. A spokesman for a local precinct in the Bronx have publicly stated that they're not really sure that there's anything criminal that the guy did.

I have a hard time figuring it out myself. It doesn't qualify as vandalism as nothing is visible. Maybe misdemeanor criminal mischief which qualifies for a fine and the judge saying, "don't do it again." That's about it.

Shameless self-promotion

While majoring in writing at Emerson College in Boston, I used to make extra money on the side by doing design work. I designed for BosDeli's (Beacon Street) original ownership, and had a regular gig with the gargoyles shop on Newbury (among other gigs). I used to compete in the Boston Comic News' annual cartoonist search.

Since I have kept an off and on side gig designing tattoo flash under the industry pen name Rabbit Skull.

Some of you may have noticed a new banner to the right that reads "MY THREADLESS DESIGNS." Threadless is an on-line t-shirt store, and I have a design right now pending the first round of approval.

Once it passes through their internal process, it goes to a public vote.

I can use as much support as possible. Keep visiting the link below, as my design, should it pass internally, will go to the public vote in the next four to six days.

Thanks for your support.