Showing posts with label Perfect Season. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Perfect Season. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Smoke and mirrors

Rings don't mean what they once did.

It used to be that multiple Super Bowl rings translated into...stronger consideration for Canton. Dynasty translated into a stronger case for enshrinement.

This is how football's dynasties stack up with players that made the Hall - The Cowboys of the 1970's have close to a ten-spot's worth of HoFers, and the 1990's team had at least three (when Emmitt Smith gets inducted). The Green Bay teams of the 1960's had close to a dozen. The Dolphins, who went to three Super Bowls in the early 1970's have seven. The Steelers of the 1970's have ten, not including ownership. The 49ers of the 1980's through early 1990's have four, not including Jerry Rice, who's not yet eligible.

Even the four Super Bowl loss Bills have Jim Kelly, James Lofton, Thurman Thomas, coach Marv Levy, and Bruce Smith is considered to be a lock when he becomes eligible next year, giving those Bills five.

Why do I bring this up, one might ask.

With the Patriots on course to possibly win their fourth Super Bowl in seven years (only the Steeers of the 1970's have won as many championships in as short a period with four in six years), the talking heads will, invariably, talk about the great teams of all time. With that discussion comes the talk of Hall of Famers.

Taking off the fan hat, most pundits seem to agree that the only sure-fire candidates from the previous Super Bowl winning teams currently on the Patriots are Bill Belichick and Tom Brady (Randy Moss is pretty likely to get in). In past seasons, the only other name that came up with regularity was Adam Vinatieri.

Vinatieri was a great kicker - arguably the most clutch kicker in the game during the run of three Super Bowls in four seasons. But he suffers from being a kicker trying to work his way into a Hall that annually has a log-jam of worthy candidates due to the rules that limit how many candidates can enter in a year - which includes places taken by owners, commissioners, and other contributors who weren't necessarily on the field. Those off the field contributors often bump deserving players. It's why only one kicker has ever made it in, and why Vinatieri will have trouble getting in.

As for Moss - first, this is possibly his only season with the team. Second, there are a lot of Hall voters that will hold his time in Oakland against him - and rightfully so. He dogged it for two seasons, and that's not what great players...difference makers, do. He will get in, but he won't get a free-pass to Canton.

All of this begs a question, though. What's the standard? Is it putting up great stats? Is it coming up big in the big games?

Consider - Peyton Manning is considered a sure-fire Hall-of-Famer. He should be. He has been one of the most prolific offensive forces throughout his career. Sure, he's had Hall-of-Fame caliber receivers, running backs, and linemen around him, but he has generally been less than stellar in the post-season, riding to his only Super Bowl win on the back of a resurgent defense last year.

Richard Seymour has been mentioned in the past, but his injury issues in recent seasons has seriously hurt his chances.

The Patriots have a variety of players who have come up big in the post-season, or in order to seal the team's trip to the post-season, but do not have Hall-type numbers.

At different times throughout their Super Bowl runs, the Patriots have ridden the likes of Kevin Faulk, Tedy Bruschi, Troy Brown, and Ty Law.

Law has a legitimate shot, but could be hurt by the tail end of his career. Law was one of the best corners in the game for a stretch, but was it a long enough stretch?

Bruschi habitually has come up big at the right time, but will be hurt by the fact that few have ever considered him one of the top five inside/middle linebackers of this era - generally getting ranked behind Ray Lewis, Zach Thomas, Derrick Brooks, Brian Urlacher, and when they were at their peak in Pittsburgh, Levon Kirkland, and even Chad Brown. This is in spite of what we have seen he really means to that defense - anybody else remember what it was like when he was out because of the stroke?

Troy Brown regularly made the third-and-long conversion that kept the chains moving, recovered a blocked kick against the Steelers in a playoff game, returning it to mid-field where he lateraled the ball when about to be tackled - translating into seven more points in a close game.

Now Kevin Faulk is filling the Troy Brown roll. Coming up big when a big play is needed.

None of these players, however, are likely to make the Hall. Leaving the only long-timers as the Brady-Belichick tandem - making one think that the Patriots have won all their Super Bowls with smoke and mirrors.

On a lighter note - from my father, the Iggles fan (one that I have heard before, but am always amused by) -

Three quarterbacks, Peyton Manning, Brett Farve, and Tom Brady, go to heaven to visit God and watch the Celtics play a game. God decides who will sit next to him by asking the boys a question...

God asks Peyton Manning first: "What do you believe?" Peyton thinks long and hard, looks God in the eye, and says, "I believe in hard work, and in staying true to family and friends. I believe in giving. I was lucky, but I always tried to do right by my fans." God can't help but see the essential goodness of Manning, and offers him a seat to his left.

Then God turns to Brett Farve and says, "What do you believe?" Brett says, "I believe passion, discipline, courage and honor are the fundamentals of life. I, too, have been lucky, but win or lose, I've always tried to be a true sportsman, both on and off the playing fields." God is greatly moved by Brett's sincere eloquence, and he offers him a seat to his right.

Finally, God turns to Tom Brady: "And you, Tom, what do you believe?" Tom replies, "I believe you're in my seat."

Monday, January 07, 2008

Fuzzy Logic

Fuzzy logic seems to be in abundance these days.

Fuzzy logic comes from fuzzy math...let's start with some fuzzy math - the kind that doesn't add up.

Yesterday Roger Clemens continued his farce with a 17-minute tape of a phone conversation with trainer-turned-informant Brian McNammee. The tape told us absolutely diddly-squat.

Here's the math on this subject -

Clemens' initial denial issued by his lawyer and reported by CNN on December 14...

"Roger Clemens adamantly, vehemently, and whatever other adjectives can be used, denies that he has ever used steroids or ... improper substances," Clemens' attorney, Rusty Hardin, said Thursday.
"He is really, really concerned and upset that he has been named in this report. It's based on the allegations, apparently, of a trainer that he's had in the past. ... That's not a standard someone should be held out in public to have done something as serious as using steroids in baseball."

...

"Roger has been repeatedly tested for these substances and he has never tested positive," Hardin said in a statement. "There has never been one shred of tangible evidence that he ever used these substances and yet he is being slandered today."
Hardin told reporters that Clemens had not been given the opportunity to defend himself.


Let's start with the last point Hardin makes. Clemens had plenty of opportunity to defend himself when invited to talk to George Mitchell. He chose not to do so. Let's be realistic about this as well - it's not as though Clemens was going to assume Mitchell just wanted to hang out and talk about baseball. He knew what Mitchell was doing, he had to know that Mitchell called him because he had been named. Issue one that doesn't pass the smell test.

Lidocaine is a class VI drug. Class VI drugs require a prescription for use and is administered by a physician - not a physical trainer. Issue two.

Vitam B12 is a professional sports euphemism for the steroid Winstrol, which is what McNamee claims to have injected Clemens with. Don't believe it, just ask Rafael Palmeiro. Issue three.

Here's my favorite, and it comes from an interview with Steve Phillips on ESPN's Mike and Mike in the Morning - Phillips, for those of you who don't know, played baseball and was at one time the general manager of the New York Mets - "We're talking a strength and conditioning coach. In my twenty years within a major league organization, seven as a player, thirteen in a front office, I have never heard of a strength and conditioning coach giving any legitimate injection to a player. In fact, trainers do not give injections, only physicians give injections."

This was followed up by the former NFL defensive tackle Mike Golic's agreement, "I will say, I was never injected by a trainer...I have never heard of that before." And Buster Olney's statement, "I completely concur with what Steve said. In talking with people around baseball last night, they said they cannot see a situation in which a trainer would be giving injections to players as a matter of routine." Issue four.

From an ESPN.com report -
Asked why McNamee would tell the truth about Pettitte and lie about Clemens,
Clemens said Pettitte's case was "totally separate."

How is it that Mike Wallace didn't follow up on this? How are the cases totally separate? From all accounts, Clemens introduced Pettitte to McNamee. Pettitte confirmed that McNamee was telling the truth in regards to him - why would he then be lying about Clemens? Both sloppy reporting and issue five. He offered no explanation in regards to how Pettitte's case is "totally separate."

I don't buy that the timing of when his lawyers (finally) filed the suit against McNamee as a coincidence either. It came two days after Clemens was asked to appear before Congress along with Pettitte and McNamee. The allows Clemens to, in effect, go in front of the Congressional committee and claim that he can't answer certain questions due to the pending litigation without ever having to take the Fifth. Issue six.

Right now it looks like Clemens is trying to convince the court of public opinion that by adding five and five, you get six.

Fuzzy math part two -

The closer it gets, the funnier the math gets. Somehow, Mercury Morris and his 1972 Dolphin compatriots would have us believe that 17=19. Neat trick, but wrong.

Yes, it would be only the second team in the NFL to go undefeated during a season, but what does that really mean? It means that they had a streak that ran during one season, rather than over the course of two.

The whole discussion always comes back to how hard it is to win 16 in a row. The Tom Brady/Bill Belichick Patriots have done it twice.

Those 17 Dolphin wins included the postseason. The Patriots already have one streak that exceeds that at 21.

The longest regular season winning streak the 'Phins even had was 15 games. The Patriots are owners of both an 18-game and now 19-game regular season winning streaks.

None of this takes into account the fact that the Patriots deal with free-agency, the salary cap, and weighted schedules - all elements of today's game designed to keep the sort of dominance the Patriots have shown from happening.

Sure, the Patriots haven't gone 19-0, and might not, but the self-appointed greatest team to ever play the game would have you believe that 17=19, and that the best the Pats could do is "join us on the mountain top."

Sorry guys. They do it, then they're the king of the mountain.

Sunday, December 30, 2007

Wow.

Forging the perfect season...

The Patriots are 16-0 this morning. If the Redskins and the Browns make the playoffs, they will have accomplished this feat during a season in which they played seven playoff contenders, including four division winners - Indianapolis, San Diego, Pittsburgh, and Dallas.

Overall, the winning percentage of the team's opponents is .465. With eight games left among those 12 other opponents, assuming wins by the Jets, Chargers, Browns, and Colts, the best the final winning percentage can be is .474. While .474 isn't going to make anyone say "wow," here's something from ESPN to put what the Patriots did this season into perspective -

The biggest negative on the '72 Dolphins' résumé is the strength, or lack thereof, of their schedule. While it's true that they could only play who was scheduled, it's also true that with an opponents' winning percentage of .396, the Dolphins' schedule was one of the easiest since 1950.

How easy?

Basically, 99 percent of the teams since 1950 had a more difficult season schedule than the 1972 Dolphins. That is a very easy schedule.


Four of the Patriots victories were by four points, or fewer. Only two of those tight victories were against playoff contenders. The team's average margin of victory over the rest of the playoff field is 25.6 points per game.

Additionally, the Patriots defeated the entire NFC East, and AFC North through the course of their season - two of the most physical divisions in the NFL.

Based on what happened during the regular season, one has to assume that the two AFC teams with the best chance of advancing through Foxborough - the Colts and the Jags.

Costly loss -

In a game they didn't need, the Giants lost their starting center, Shaun O'Hara to a knee injury, starting corner Sam Madison to a groin injury, and starting linebacker Kawika Mitchell. Both Mitchell and O'Hara are reported to have each sprained a knee.

All players at key positions on the field.

This is not good for a Giants team heading into a playoff game with a physical Tampa team.

The 300, Patriots Redux...

Tom Brady became the sole number of the 50 touchdown club when he hooked up with Randy Moss on a 65-yard bomb. That means that 300 of the Patriots 589 total points came off the arm of Tom Brady.

Brady's arm has accounted for just under 75 percent of the scoring by the Patriots O. The offense accounted for a total of 402 of the points, special teams another 151 points (one two point conversion), and the defense scored 36 with touchdowns by Randall Gay, Adallius Thomas, Asante Samuel, Eugene Wilson, and Rosevelt Colvin.

Fearful Symmetry...

Just a few final facts to leave you with:

The Patriots started and ended the season in Giants Stadium. The y won both games, scoring exactly 38 points in both contests. In both games Moss caught a touchdown pass of at least 50 yards, and Brady completed at least 76 percent of his passes.

The Patriots top three receivers, Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth, each averaged better than 10 yards per reception in the two games in the Meadowlands - 20 receptions for 254 yards against the Giants, and 16 receptions for 263 yards against the Jets.

Randy Moss is the common denominator between the record setting Vikings offense that got Brian Billick his head coaching position in Baltimore, and the current Patriots offense.

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Five weeks left...

With five weeks left in the regular season, there are certain truths that have become crystal clear in the NFL. Barring collapses of epic proportions, Green Bay and Dallas should represent their respective divisions in the playoffs and be the one and two seeds in the NFC. With a win tonight, Green Bay would clinch the NFC North.

The Patriots have five teams to go through to tie Miami's single season record for consecutive wins. The teams with the best chance to stop it between now and then is the ones that get the most creative in the way they play. Philly already proved that.

The Dolphins have a strong chance to go 0-16. Miami has lost six games by three points, and their best chance for a win will probably come against the offensively deficient Ravens in December.

Currently in the NFC, the wild card standings are as follows -

  1. NY Giants
  2. Detroit Lions
  3. NO Saints
  4. Arizona Cardinals
  5. Philadelphia Eagles
  6. Washington Redskins
I'll call it right now. The Giants and the Cardinals get in, Detroit will struggle to their first non-double digit loss season since the 2000 at 7-9, and this will mark Donovan McNabb's last season in Philadelphia.

The current wild card standings in the AFC -
  1. Jacksonville Jaguars
  2. Cleveland Browns
  3. Tennessee Titans
  4. Denver Broncos
  5. Buffalo Bills

The most likely changes in the AFC playoff picture really take into account the possibility that the Colts could end up the top wild card entry and the Broncos could knock the Chargers out of the playoff picture. With the soft final five for the Browns, I wouldn't rule out Cleveland and Pittsburgh tying with an 11-5, or even a 12-4 record. However, a tie still puts the Browns behind the Steelers by virtue of their two losses to the Steelers and no better than the fifth seed, no matter how bad the record of the AFC West champion is.

Let the games begin.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Pats spend off-weekend relaxing, Shula calls bye tainted.

It was either that or, "Shula notes Pats failed to win over weekend, unaware they were on their bye."

Currently the AFC East is a hotbed of perfection. Possibly for the first time in the history of the NFL, the same conference is hosting two teams in pursuit of a record with a goose-egg. The Patriots are 9-0, with their toughest competition likely coming from the Steelers, and maybe the Giants.

The Dolphins, the one-time paragon of winning with a 14-0 regular season back in 1972, are fighting for another perfect season - they're seven losses away from 0-16. Of course the perfect season that the 'Phins is a dubious honor to say the least.

Miami likely has four chances out of their final seven games to avoid becoming the first non-expansion team to go an entire season without a victory, and the first team since the NFL expanded to a 16 game slate. Those four games? A rematch with the Jets (1-7), and games against the struggling Ravens (4-5), Bengals (3-6), and Eagles (4-5).

I have my doubts that Miami can go into Buffalo and beat the Bills, or go to Pittsburgh and beat the Steelers, let alone go to New England and pull out a win there.

Sure, there's a reason for the term, "any given Sunday," and an upset could happen. However, I'm guessing that the Dolphins will be the underdog in every game remaining on their schedule, so even if they beat the Ravens, it will technically be considered an upset.

U-G-L-Y

Last night the Chargers won ugly, the Colts lost ugly, Tony Dungy coached ugly (that time-out to argue a penalty was mind-bogglingly stupid, and ended up costing the team at the end of the game), and the Colts special teams - from top to bottom - were ugly.

Vinnie Iyer at the Sporting News was busy trying to put the best spin possible on this loss from the Colts standpoint. He notes that the Colts should not be counted out because of two losses in a row. He's right about that. What he is wrong about is that Manning played like a champion - in spite of playing poorly.

The Colts lost because of a variety of reasons - Manning being one of them. Special teams (Adam Vinatieri left six points on the field), and, as previously mentioned, Dungy and some poor coaching decisions.

When a quarterback throws six interceptions, you can't absolve him of responsibility in a loss.

What this did remind me of - the old argument about swapping the teams of Brady and Manning to see how well each would have done. I seem to remember a couple of years back (2004) that the Patriots went 14-2. Their leading wide-out was David Givens with 874 yards. Reggie Wayne already has 870 with seven games left. Leading receiver for Pats tight ends that year was Daniel Graham with 364 yards, if Dallas Clark (405 yards) remains out, Ben Utecht could still top 300 yards receiving. Joseph Addai (pace for 1400-1500 yards) is comparable to Corey Dillon (1635).

Manning was brutally bad - and the argument that the Colts O line is banged up. The Patriots were starting former Tampa Bay practice squader Russ Hochstein whom Warren Sapp famously said couldn't block Tony Kornheieser. The team started corners Randall Gay and Earthwind Moreland, and used wide-out Troy Brown as their nickel corner. In spite of losing weapons to an injured defense, losing protection (line-men), and losing Ben Watson for all but one game of the season, the Brady never looked as bad as Manning did yesterday.

I think we have our answer as to who does the most to elevate his team to the next level.