Showing posts with label clay buchholz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label clay buchholz. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Starting picture

Red Sox starters, expected to be a strength of the team, have had a rough go of it through the first two months. Daisuke Matsuzaka has managed only three starts and a stratospheric ERA of 10.32. Of the team's other five starters (with at least six starts), only Tim Wakefield (3.99) and Justin Masterson (4.47) have ERA's below five. Currently would-be ace Josh Beckett is at 5.01, last year's best pitcher, Jon Lester is cruising at 5.91, and free-agent pick-up Brad Penny is floating a 5.96.

While Wake has been the team's ace, even winning two of his three bad outings, and Masterson has been excellent in all but two of his starts (a 2.35 ERA in the four starts not including the May 1 and 6 starts), the rest of the staff has struggled. In some of those cases, however, the struggles might be somewhat superficial.

Of the team's starting five, Lester has been the most erratic having given up three or fewer earned runs in four of his nine starts, but five or more in the other five starts. In three of his starts following a start in which he gave up five or more earned he has bounced back to give up 0, 3, and 1 earned respectively. Unfortunately, the question for his next start revolves around which Lester is going to show up.

Beckett and Penny, on the other hand, have begun to show signs of life.

Beckett hit rock bottom on April 30 when he failed to make it out of the 5th inning at Tampa, making it second start in back to back starts in which he failed to pitch more than five innings (the only time he's gone fewer than six innings in any start this season). His ERA topped out at 7.22 that day. Since his ERA has decreased in every subsequent start. In his four starts since, Beckett has averaged 6.2 innings per start and has an ERA of 2.67 while going 2-0, and is one blown save from being 3-0 in that stretch.

As for Penny - I addressed him last week, but will run the numbers based on his subsequent start anyway. Penny almost had an extended Spring Training going through his first four games of the season, getting yanked from his fourth start before he could complete three innings. Like Beckett, however, he's seen his ERA drop from 8.66 with every subsequent start since.

His most recent start in Minnesota, during which he was throwing up between innings, was the first since that 2.2 inning start in April in which he failed to pitch six complete innings, getting pulled after getting one out in the sixth. Even so, he's averaged just about 6.1 innings per start, with a 4.40 ERA and 3-1 record.

It's just a guess, but assuming Penny isn't traded, but 15-5 with an ERA around 4.00 isn't unrealistic for him. If Lester can find the groove he was in last season, and Matsuzaka can re-find his form, this can be a tough staff for any team to have to deal with.

If they continue to have issues, don't be surprised to see Clay Buchholz back in the bigs, or John Smolz when he's ready.

Thursday, April 02, 2009

Losing the game of chicken...

or Beware the Idiots of March...

A little translation of professional athlete speak - I want the team to show it's committed to me. Translation - I want to see more money in a new contract.

From New York Newsday -

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported on the night of March 15, the day after Josh McDaniels met with [Jay] Cutler and his agent, Bus Cook, that the pair requested a trade. Which the Broncos verified.

"The Denver Broncos confirm that Jay Cutler has requested a trade," a team spokesman told the AP March 16.

Cutler, during what seemed an unambiguous interview, told Mortensen March 15, "Really, it's best for me to move on."

From a Fox report -

"I was surprised they decided to trade me this soon," Cutler said. "I didn't want to get traded. This wasn't me. (The Broncos) had been going back and forth saying things, wanting me to be their quarterback and then they didn't."

"I really didn't want this. I love Denver. I really like my teammates. I didn't want it to get this far."

If Jay Cutler has any credibility in any locker room anywhere ever again, I will be sorely disappointed in his future teammates. So...was he bluffing in order to get a new contract? Did he think that by showing up his new coach and GM that he was showing his Broncos teammates his sterling leadership qualities? Is this guy really this big an idiot?

Some really quick hits...

Good win for the Celtics against a Bobcats team that's beginning to peak at the right time for a playoff run.

Not really surprised that Clay Buchholz was sent to Pawtucket to start the season, but I will be surprised if we don't see him in Fenway again sometime this season.

Tommy Lasorda just doesn't get it. In his defense of nephew Mike Piazza (related to the recent allegations of steroid use), Lasorda said that Piazza busted his ass in the weight room. That was part of his reasoning that his nephew couldn't have been using. I guess he doesn't know that steroids don't magically give one muscles, that you have to spend time in the weight room or you just get fat. He also uses the idea that Piazza is church-going in his defense of his nephew.

Let's get something straight here - just because someone is inherently a good person, or regularly attends church, that doesn't exempt them from doing something bad or stupid. Andy Pettitte, by all accounts, is a very religious guy, and a good guy in the locker room. Nailed for HGH. Then of course history is littered with religious people that just were not good human beings - take Tomás de Torquemada or Hitler (by all accounts, extremely religious). And please don't think I'm comparing Piazza to Hitler or the grand inquisitor of the Spanish Inquisition - I'm only trying to point out that religiousness is no defense and no guarantee of a person being good.

It looks like Donte Stallworth is getting charged by Miami authorities. It sounds like it's what I previously called. This should surprise no one, and should Stallworth work out a deal that avoids jail time, he's still going to miss games due to whatever suspension is handed down for his lapse in judgement.

Friday, August 22, 2008

Live from the Outer Banks, iiiiiittttt'sss the Aaaaannnngry Fan

So, I've been in Corolla, NC, for the last week (I'm still there as I type this on the porch of the beach house the family has rented). It's been a little difficult to give a rat's ass about a whole lot going on when I've been sitting in breezy low 80 degree temperatures. It has also been kind of hard to focus with my two daughters and four nieces tearing around the house like miniature banshees. So I have largely been spending days at the beach cranking through Dennis Lehane novels.

Some quick thoughts and then my pre-season take on the NFC West...

Is it just me, or has there been a domino effect on the bullpen every time Clay Buchholz has pitched lately? He struggles, they go to the pen, and they struggle. It's almost as though they're taking their cue from whoever the starter is and if the starter sucks it up, so too does the pen. I haven't looked closely to see if this is true, but it certainly feels like this is what's been happening lately. It's probably for the best that Buchholz was sent back down.

If the Sox can't come up with a viable replacement for Buchholz, a guy who can go at least .500 in his place, the Sox are going to lose out on the division, and likely the playoffs, as the AL Central looks like it has a pretty strong chance of sending two teams to the big dance.

Carl Pavano is expected to start for the Yankees on Saturday. Stick a fork in 'em. Right now this is their rotation -

Mike Mussina
Carl Pavano
Darrell Rasner
Andy Pettitte
Sid Ponson

That's not only not a championship rotation, it's a rotation that's barely average. Only one of the starters gives up fewer than four runs per nine innings pitched, and that's Mike Mussina. Not exactly known for coming up big in the late season pressure games (sure, he hasn't been awful in the post-season, but 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA is hardly dominating, or impressive).

Now onto the West...

This is a hard one to call because, like the AFC West, the NFC West is rife with mediocre and bad teams. It's hard to ascribe any separation between the Rams and the 49ers, as well as the Cardinals and the Seahawks. The two duos definitively make up the top and the bottom of a bad division. One of the teams might surprise, it's always possible, but this is how I see it...

4. 49ers - I think this is a team going backwards. They appear to lack a true NFL quality quarterback, instead having three guys that would be back-ups on other teams. Frank Gore is solid at running back, but the passing game and the defense are suspect. I have a hard time seeing this team improve on the five wins of a year ago, and suspect that they could slip to a four win season easily.

3. Rams - Like San Fran, I'm not convinced of this team's improvement. However, with contests against the rival 49ers (twice), the Jets, Dolphins, Falcons, and Bills, there's a chance this team could eke out five or six wins, although, I suspect at least one loss to the Niners, and possible losses to the Jets and Bills. I wouldn't be surprised by three wins, but I would be by any more than six.

2. Seahawks - I haven't been thrilled by this team's personnel moves since the Super Bowl loss to the Steelers. I think they overpaid for Deion Branch, an oft-injured, undersized receiver who got it into his head, and into the Seahawks' heads that he was better than really is. They let one of the better offensive linemen on the team walk away. They signed TJ Duckett, who I feel has never quite lived up to what little hype has surrounded him. The only signing I liked was Julius Jones. While they are clearly one of the most consistent teams in the NFC, I believe time has chipped away at their hold on the division and that they may be in danger of missing the post-season this year. All that said, I'm looking at nine wins, maybe ten for this team.

1. Cardinals - I'm buying into the hype. The last time I did, I got burned, but I'm going to ride with it again. Knowing the history of this team, they could easily wind up at the bottom of the division, but I think they're poised for a playoff run. They have a young, high-octane offense in place that has shown signs of life the last two seasons. With the offensive weapons in place, the Arizona brain trust has concentrated on their defensive shortcomings, and the buzz out of the desert is that the D could be pretty good this year. If that happens, this could be a team that makes some noise. They'll have their work cut out for them with all the teams from the East on their schedule, but I can see them stealing one here and there to fight their way to around ten wins.

Monday, June 09, 2008

Things I think about this weekend

  • I think the finals are designed in such a way as to minimize the impact of home-court in the NBA. With three straight games coming up in Los Angeles, and the way the Celtics have played on the road, the Lakers still worry me. I think for the Celtics to win this thing they absolutely, positively need to take one in LA, and I think it needs to be one of the first two games they play against the Lakers, because I'm not convinced that they will be able to take the third if they drop two in a row.
  • I think the Celtics lack the ability to stick the dagger in a team when they have it dead to rights. I think that was obvious when they nearly coughed up a 24-point lead, and over 40 points in fourth quarter to the Lakers in game two.
  • I think that the Celtics tend to go away from what gave them their lead when they get one.
  • I think with a 3-0 record and a 2.59 ERA (only one start in which he gave up more than one run) in four major league starts, the Red Sox are going to have a hard time justifying sending Justin Masterson back to AAA when Clay Buchholz gets healthy.
  • I think it's amazing that people were positive that a horse with a cracked hoof had a shot at the triple crown. And that they were surprised when Big Brown didn't run well.
  • I think Cedric Benson's an idiot. After being picked up for drunk driving this past weekend, he has lost the benefit of the doubt in relation to the incident last month on the boat. wherein police claim Benson was boating drunk.
  • I think the Red Sox need to learn how to be the same team on the road as they are at home...or even half that team. Currently when they're on the road they're...well, they're the Baltimore Orioles.
  • I think the more we see of him, the more everyone will realize that Jeremy Shockey is one of those supremely talented me-first guys who causes a team more harm then good with his selfishness. I still firmly believe that the Giants don't even make the Super Bowl, let alone win it, with a healthy Shockey.
  • And one final note - I think the three most important people in the Celtics' win were Paul Pierce who has been the best player on the court in the first two games, Rajon Rondo who has been finding the open man seemingly every time he has touched the ball, and Leon Powe who played less than 15 minutes and scored 21 points.

Friday, May 09, 2008

Quick thoughts

Meant to mention this the other day. A big shout-out to Joe Andruzzi who recently got the news that he is now cancer-free. Less than a year ago the former Patriots offensive lineman was diagnosed with a particularly aggressive form of lymphoma.

With everything else that has happened in New England sports this last year - World Series Championship, undefeated regular season, best record in the NBA, an Ivy League football championship, a college bowl bid after flirting with being the number one team in the nation - this might be the best news. It's not going to cause the euphoria with the fans that, say a Celtics Championship will. But Andruzzi healthy again...that's great news.

Starting rotation

Sixteen of the Red Sox 23 wins have come from the starting rotation (well, the regular starting five of Matsuzaka, Beckett, Wakefield, Lester, and Buchholz).

The Dice-man is leading the way with five wins and a 2.43 ERA.

Wake is second in ERA with a 3.33, and third in wins with three.

Beckett is at four wins and 3.70, Lester two and 3.94, and Clay at two and the only ERA over four at 4.50.

By comparison, Baltimore has had seven pitchers with at least two starts. Of the five with a minimum of four starts, there are eight wins between them and only two with ERA's below four, with another two with ERA's over seven. The Rays have 13 wins from their starting five, but only one starter with a sub-four ERA. Like the Sox, the Blue Jays have 16 wins from their starting five, but have two pitchers with ERA's over four, including AJ Burnett's 5.19 ERA. The Yankees have been slightly better than the Rays with their starting five, getting 14 wins from them, but they've had three guys with ERA's over four, and none below three. Two of their starters (one now back in the minors, and the other on the disabled list) have ERA's over eight.

If these ERA numbers stay fairly consistent, it's only a matter of time before the Sox starters separate from the pack.

"I know the writer and I think very highly of him"

-Bob Ryan on John Tomase, Friday morning appearing on Mike & Mike in the Morning

Ryan wasn't excusing the whole Spygate thing. He was explaining how writers roll the dice whenever relying on unnamed sources.

The Herald is already feeling enough negative feedback that they have deactivated the comments sections following Tomase's articles due to the shots being taken by Herald readers in those forums. Without the direct route to Tomase, readers displeased with the Herald and Tomase have begun voicing their displeasure in the comments attached to other writers.

Regardless of how good Tomase may or may not have been in the past, if he cannot produce something tangible to back his story, his career as a Patriots beat writer might as well be over. I would be shocked if his access to Patriots events weren't extremely limited.

Backs to the wall...

Down two games to none with one of the worst two-game shooting stretches in playoff history coming from their star, the Cleveland Cavaliers have their backs to the wall. The question out there is - what did the Celtics learn from their struggles in Atlanta in the first round?

I would be surprised if LeBron James had a third stinker in a row.

That said, it's interesting to note that the C's strategy in this playoff series has been - we're gonna stop LeBron. If the rest of the Cavs can beat us, then so be it, but we don't think they can.

Monday, May 05, 2008

Crushing

It was a good weekend to be a Boston fan. Some quick thoughts on the weekend...

He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue...

The Celtics played a series against Atlanta that saw both teams hold serve at home. The C's just lacked the intensity on the road that they had at home. They gave a sub-.500 team hope.

Then they crushed them.

The closest the game ever got was when the Hawks went up 3-0 in the first quarter. It was over by the half.

With more than a quarter to go, the Celtics went up 70-34.

Early in the third the Hawks Marvin Williams put Rajon Rondo on the floor with a flagrant foul and was kicked out of the game. Kevin Garnett went old-school. Larry Bird would have been proud. Garnett put a vicious screen on the Hawks' Zaza Pachulia, putting Pachulia on his ass.

The bottom line, the game was never in doubt and maybe, just maybe the Celtics have figured out what they need to do going forward to put another banner in the Garden's rafters.

One last note - big time players come up big in big games. Atlanta's Mike Bibby, a one time all-star, was a virtual no-show in the games in Boston. His line in game one - 5 points, 1 assist; game two - 12 points, 1 assist; game five - 6 points, 1 assist; game seven - 2 points, 2 assists. Atlanta lost those games by an average of 25.25 points.

Now, I will admit to not being the biggest basketball fan, but I seem to recall that point-guards like Bibby are the guys that set the offense and rack up the assists. He averaged 1.25 per game in the Garden to go with his 6.25 points per game average in Boston.

To put that in perspective, Bibby, on his home court, averaged 5.67 assists per game and 15.67 points per game. Way to be clutch.

Rays rocked by Sox...

In the weekend's three game series Tampa scored ten runs - an average of 3.3 runs per game. Not great, not terrible. Certainly good enough, if their pitching is solid, to come up with two wins in three games.

Didn't happen.

After a brutal stretch in which the Sox had trouble scoring runs, they absolutely exploded against the Rays. Through the three games Boston put up 26 total runs - just under nine per game.

Jon Lester had possibly the best outing of the Sox' starters, going six innings while giving up one earned run on four hits. It was his second straight quality start. A day earlier, Josh Beckett went eight innings, but gave up four runs, and in the first game rookie starter Clay Buchholz was good in giving up only one run, but was lifted with one out in the sixth inning.

All told, however, Sox starters gave up six of Tampa's ten runs, with four coming from Beckett. Lester and Buchholz combined for a 1.46 ERA in their two starts. It can be dismissed that it was done against the Rays until the following is considered - the second place (yeah, you read that right) Rays are 6th in the AL in RBI's, home runs, and 9th in batting average. Overall, 14th in RBI's, 13th in home runs, and 15th in average. They are, indeed, a solid, middle of the road sort of team with pitching (through this weekend) comparable to the Sox (4.12 staff ERA to the Sox 4.13)

Different directions...

This is the Jets-Patriots relationship in microcosm...

Since Victor Hobson (signed this off-season by the Patriots) was drafted by the Jets in 2003, the linebacker has been solid, racking up fewer than 50 tackles only once (45 in 2004). He has averaged 68.6 tackles per season, racked up 11 sacks, and 3 interceptions. He has appeared all 16 games all but once in his five seasons.

The Jets let him go to free agency without a fight. Then they went out and signed Calvin Pace away from the Arizona Cardinals. Pace, drafted in the same year as Hobson, has appeared in all sixteen games in in three of his five seasons, racked up an average of 37.2 tackles per season, 14 total sacks and 1 interception. If you discount the 98 tackles he had in his contract year, Pace averaged 22 tackles per season, had a total of 7.5 sacks and no interceptions.

I can't help but think that it's going to be another long season for Jets fans with signings like that.

Saturday, May 03, 2008

One liners and other brief questions

I guess that the following terms and names have new meaning...

  • Getting Rogered.
  • Jolly Roger.
  • Taking Clemens deep.
  • King Missile.
Anyone else hear Barry Bonds breathing a sigh of relief over the fact that the press isn't paying him any attention because of Clemens?

In Red Sox terms, Feet of Clay are not necessarily a bad thing any longer.

The turf at Fenway might be Bluegrass, but the future of right field definitely appears to be Moss.

If JD Drew is eventually cut (probably no time soon), what's the over/under on the time from the announcement to the first "D(r)ew dropped" headline?

I know it's early yet, but what does it say about major league baseball that the Sox could have a brutal five game slide, and still put together more wins than all but four teams?

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Shut up and play...and ruminations on the potential Santana trade

This has been a tiresome week for me.

I live in Whine Country in Maryland.

I watch the boards and read various articles about the NFL games for several days after the games end on Sunday and Monday. For weeks I have heard fans of other teams bitch and moan about the lack of class of the Patriots. This week I have heard, both locally, and nationally (mostly in interviews with Ravens) how the officials took the game from them (thankfully the national press has pretty much said what follows here...well, with the exception of my sentiments on Samari Rolle).

To that, I answer the following - since Belichick took over, you have never heard players blame each other for any of their losses (Peyton Manning, I'm looking at you), you have never heard the Patriots blame the officials (Ravens, I'm looking at you). The team has gone longer than any other team in the NFL without a player arrested (Bengals, Redskins, Cardinals, Bears, Dolphins, and...well the rest of the NFL, I'm looking at you). The team hasn't had any assistant coaches get into trouble on their own time (Detroit, and Arizona). As a matter of fact, other than Belichick being named in a divorce proceeding and the tragedy that took Marquise Hill, the Patriots are pretty much in the news for playing football.

As for the Ravens and their fan base, the idea that the refs took that game from them is patently ridiculous. While I have made many of the following points elsewhere myself, I would like to thank Peter King for the following summary of the end of Monday night's game -

• New England ball, fourth-and-1, Baltimore 30, 1:48 left, Baltimore up 24-20. At the last second before the snap, Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan calls timeout. The play went on, with Baltimore stuffing Tom Brady for a loss and, theoretically, that should have been New England's last gasp. One problem.
Only the head coach is supposed to be able to call time on the sidelines. But in
this case, the league has interpreted the rule on a last-millisecond timeout call that the side official cannot be responsible for seeing whether it's the head coach or another coach who calls time. So it's technically legal for Ryan to have called the timeout, and the league's point is the head coach is responsible for controlling his bench. In this case, Brian Billick has to be responsible for his sideline, and when Ryan calls time, the burden is on Billick to accept the call because it happened on the Baltimore sideline.
• New England ball, fourth-and-5, Baltimore 13, 55 seconds left, Baltimore up 24-20. Brady retreats to pass. From the right side of the line, tight end Ben Watson runs downfield into the end zone, with nickel back Jamaine Winborne riding him tightly downfield. Once Watson gets past the 8-yard line, it's illegal for Winborne to have anything but incidental contact with Watson, but he clearly has an arm on him well past the 8, and all the way into the end zone. Maybe the call should have been holding, maybe the call should have been illegal contact, but it was a legitimate call, not a ticky-tack one. Winborne impeded Watson's path.
The back judge, Billy Smith, called holding, a five-yard penalty and automatic
first down. I would have called illegal contact, but both penalties have the same impact, which is to give the Patriots a first-and-goal at the Baltimore 8. Great guts by Smith to make a call in that atmosphere.
• New England ball, first-and-goal, Baltimore 8, 50 seconds left. Brady throws to the left corner of the end zone for Jabar Gaffney, who catches the ball in front of his body with both hands while getting both feet down. During the time he gets both feet down, Gaffney moves the ball in front of him but never takes either gloved hand off
the ball and never juggles the ball. It is ruled a touchdown, and there is a booth review ordered by replay official Dale Hamer. The play is reviewed by ref Walt Anderson and confirmed. Let's remember what replay is: It's to be used to overturn a call only if there is indisputable visual evidence that the call is wrong. There's no way you can look at this play -- and I've seen it 10 times, in slow-motion -- and say there's clear evidence he didn't have control of the ball.
• Baltimore ball, second-and-10, Baltimore 45, eight seconds left. Kyle Boller throws a Hail Mary to the 3-yard line, and, in the middle of the scrum, Baltimore wideout Derrick Mason puts his hands on Patriot cornerback Asante Samuel's shoulders and pulls Samuel down. Mark Clayton makes the catch and is tackled at the three. There is no flag. Big mistake. There certainly should have been offensive pass interference ... but even if that was the call, it would not have changed the outcome. Because the clock expired, and the game can end on an offensive penalty, the game would have been over without the Ravens having another chance to score.

Let's also address Samari Rolle's complaint about the 53-year old former player, and official who called him "boy at least five times." The large black man whom Rolle accused, by his own admission, of having "never strapped on a helmet," in relation to what Rolle felt were bogus calls.

The more that comes out about Rolles complaint, the more it sounds like he incited the ref. Rolle claims that he was told by 110, "boy, shut up and play." Part of his complaint is that Rolle himself is 31 years old and a father of three, and "you don't call a grown man 'boy.'" To which I say, maybe he should act like a grown man and accept responsibility for his actions, and not blame the refs for his teammates screw-ups.

This will result in a talking to the officials by Goodell, but it should also result in a smackdown on the Ravens who seem to think that the officials are trying to help the Patriots by edict from the league offices.

One of the most ridiculous accusations is that the league wants to help Bill Belichick, who has pretty much become the NFL version of Darth Vader in everyone's eyes, win. It was obvious in the way the game against the Colts was officiated, and the way the officials helped AJ Feeley toss three picks, and of course the way the officials ignored an obvious penalty on the Baltimore Hail Mary in the closing seconds. If Clayton gets into the end zone, that's a potentially game changing play on which the refs blew the call. Do Ravens fans think the NFL told the refs to blow that call too?

Bottom line, they need to get their heads out of their asses and really look at how that game was called. Yes, it was poorly officiated, but it was poorly officiated on both sides. And if the second most penalized team in the AFC really thinks that the refs were quick to throw the flags on them, then maybe it has a lot less to do with the Patriots record than the fact that year in and year out they play disciplined football, and, as such, are one of the least penalized teams in the league. That might have followed the Ravens into the game more than any conspiracy by the NFL to keep the Patriots without a loss.

If they don't want the flags thrown, maybe they should try playing with discipline - hell, Ed Reed was five yards off-sides on an extra-point attempt. How often do you see that?

As for Santana, and I'm not talking the guitar legend...

I'm pretty much on record at a number of other blogs as not in favor of this trade. Johan Santana is a superb power pitcher whom I would love to see on the Red Sox for the right price. The deals as structured combined with the rumored contract demands are not the right price. Maybe if Santana were 27, it would be, but he's 29, has already pitched over 1300 big league innings, has faded down the stretch and has been mediocre, at best, in the post season.

This doesn't even take into account Santana's Fenway park numbers - 1-3 (15.2 innings) in three starts and one relief appearance with a 6.89 ERA, 12 K and a 1.85 WHIP. The only win came in the relief appearance and his last Fenway start was 5 innings with a 7.20 ERA. Part of what has hurt Santana in Fenway is the fact that he's a flyball pitcher. Those flyballs that are outs in the Metrodome are going to be doubles off the wall in Fenway.

I can't help but feel that given the fact that Jon Lester is 23, was solid in a year that he came off cancer, and put up better numbers in his first year than Santana in his first, I can't help feeling that giving the Twins Lester and three to four prospects that will likely be playing in the majors within the next two seasons, that the Red Sox are grossly overpaying ala the Vikings for Herschel Walker for a bauble they don't really need. What surprises me here is that the Twins haven't jumped on this offer, given that the Sox are currently not bidding against anyone else.

Why do I compare this to the Walker trade? I think, like Walker in Minnesota, that Santana will have limited success in Fenway, and that his propensity to give up flyballs will negate any upgrade he would otherwise represent over Lester who is likely to average 14 to 16 wins per season over the next couple of seasons (health permitting).

Power pitchers who begin to develop elbow problems like Santana has been exhibiting begin to show significant drop off in numbers between the ages of 33 and 35. Given Santana's demands, I can't help feeling that in four years that the Sox would be paying $20 to 25 million per year and dealing with the same situation that the Mets did this year with Pedro Martinez - paying gobs of money for a guy who couldn't get off the bench until late August due to injury.

And none of this takes into account the domino effect of paying Santana obscene gobs of money in spite of the fact that he's nowhere near the post-season pitcher that Beckett...or for that matter, Lester is.

Given the way last year's JD Drew signing went down, it feels like Theo has become enamored of another shiny bauble that the team doesn't need, and is bidding against himself in an effort to get it.

I understand not being able to do Lester straight up for Santana, even Lester and one player, but Lester and three seems too much for a team that doesn't actually need Santana. Don't even get me started on Buchholz or Ellsbury, neither of which I think should be included in any deal for the Twins ace.

Monday, December 03, 2007

Greed

Greed will be the undoing of Theo Epstein this off-season. If reports are true regarding the Red Sox including likely rookie of the year candidate Jacoby Ellsbury in a trade for Johann Santana, and it's not the bluff that Dave over at The Coffin Corner hopes, then Larry Lucchino needs to step in now.

Sure, getting Santana would be a major move and keep the Sox as favorites in the East for years to come with a rotation of Beckett, Santana, Matsuzaka, and whoever the Sox have left after the trade to fill in the back end of the rotation. However, he's not worth anywhere near what Minnesota is asking - particularly if half his starts are coming in Fenway Park.

I noted the following in response to one of the postings at the Coffin Corner, because I wanted to note what no one has been saying about this deal from the Red Sox end of things -

Everyone is talking about his greatness, nobody is talking about the fact Theo is trying to bring a fly ball pitcher to Fenway who has a career 6.89 ERA when playing in Boston, or the fact that he's 1-4 in five post-season appearances with 3.97 ERA.

The Sox already have a lefty with better postseason numbers - Lester - 2-0 in two appearances with a 1.93 ERA.

At 23 and coming off of cancer treatment, Lester still has tremendous up-side. This season, coming back from injury Lester had a 0.77 Ground ball to fly ball ratio, worse than Santana's career ration of 0.88. However, last year, before Lester's health failed him, his ratio was 1.03 (in 81.1 innings pitched with a 4.76 ERA). In 2000, Santana's first season with the Twins, he tossed 86 innings with a 6.49 ERA to go with the 0.88 ratio (for those out there that don't get the ratio, the lower that number, the higher the number of flies given up by the pitcher).

From everything I have read about recovery from the sort of lymphoma that Lester suffered from, he won't be 100 percent until the start of the 2008 season - and he still posted a lower ERA this season than last.

I would be worried that the Sox were giving up way too much for a pitcher that hasn't been very good in Fenway through his career.
Many out there point out that Santana is more accomplished than Lester, and that Lester is unlikely to reach Santana's level. To that I say, I would rather have the solid middle of the rotation guy who comes up big in the postseason, than the ace who might account for maybe six more wins during the regular season, but disappears in the postseason.

I hate to say it, but right now, Santana is the A-Rod of pitching. He's a pretty bauble that hasn't been able to seal the deal when the pressure was on to bring home a championship.

Keep the everyday player. Keep the two major league ready pitching prospects. Let the Yankees gut their youth once again for a player who has on-year followed by off-year, and doesn't show up in the big games.

Take your chances Theo with what you have. Santana isn't what the Sox need.

Friday, September 14, 2007

Whadda week...

So...let's go through a few thoughts...

RSN -

Daisuke Matsuzaka is looking tired. I know that the Red Sox are trying to treat Clay Buchholz with kid's gloves, but I think it would help their chances in the post-season to maybe skip Matsuzaka for a turn or two in the rotation - cut back a bit on his throwing, so he's fresher come post-season.

Patriot Nation -

Bill Belichick did something mind-bogglingly stupid.

Not a sentence I thought I would ever find myself writing.

But Video-gate has been interesting to follow outside of Pats territory. Lost on most it seems are the following -

  1. The video camera was confiscated in the first quarter along with the tape. The Patriots never had an opportunity to analyze the tape.
  2. I have heard analysts talk about how a tape like this can give a team a huge advantage due to their ability to make adjustments to what an opposing defense is doing in the second half - here's the problem with that: a coaching staff would have to sync the film of the opposition's signals with game film to see what's happening on the field. Halftime is ten...maybe fifteen minutes? That's gotta be one talented analyst. So the idea that it can help in the same game is absolutely ridiculous.
  3. I have heard others talk about it giving an advantage in the case of a rematch. I have heard former players talk about how teams typically change their defensive signals when facing a team for the second time in a season. So no advantage there, either.

Was what Belichick did wrong and paranoid? Yes. Did he and the team deserve to be sanctioned? Yes.

Is it going to hurt his legacy in the league? Only in the short-term. Does it tarnish the Patriots' legacy? Also, only in the short-term. The fact is that Belichick is not the first coach to do anything like this and won't be the last. Check out Jason Cole's article at Yahoo Sports. He points out that Mike Shannahan got caught by the league filming Chargers' practices - PRACTICES! That means they physically sent someone to San Diego during the week. This article from the Washington Post notes that the Broncos won their Super Bowls while out of compliance with the salary cap.

If there's anything that can give a team an unfair competitive advantage, it's spending more than allowed.

Don't get me wrong, I don't like what Belichick did, and am not defending it. My point is that Shanahan's transgressions have not impacted the esteem in which he is held around the league and in the press. This is unlikely to taint anything Belichick and the Patriots do for anything more than just the short-term.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

The press and the Internet

A dangerous combination if ever there was one.

Within the last week news outlets reported failed drug tests by Bengals trouble child Chris Henry and Yankees lightning rod Jason Giambi. Both reports turned out to be false.

As regulars here may have noticed, my only reference to either incident was a note that Henry "might have more trouble coming his way." Like many bloggers and reporters, I will jump on a controversial story, but this time I stayed away. I couldn't tell you why.

I can say that the Internet and news stations televising 24/7 have done more damage to the quality of reporting than anything else.

Print journalists are so desperate to get a scoop, that sometimes corroboration falls to the way side. Let's face it - it's difficult to scoop anything now because the Internet and television provide close to instant access to the news. Print journalism is slowly becoming obsolete, although not slowly enough for the newspaper companies.

For those of you that believe that the news mediums are still working - I have a question; are you seeking news, or are you seeking entertainment?

I pose this question due to the three weeks of coverage of the run away bride story that didn't feel like it was going away, and the coverage of Anna Nicole Smith's death. Let me tell you how NASA PR people breathed a sigh of relief when all the cameras turned to the Bahamas...me, I still want to know how the raving stalker passed the military psyche profiles to be picked for the space program.

Now back to my regularly scheduled sports coverage...

After his last two starts, I would say someone needs to remind Curt Schilling that he's not throwing batting practice.

Clemens was unimpressive against AA ball last night, giving up 3 earned in five and a third. By all accounts (from major league scouts) he was out-pitched by Red Sox prospect and Portland Sea Dogs pitcher Clay Buchholz. According to an article by Rob Bradford at the Boston Herald, a major league scout said, "we need one game to win the division and you’re giving me a choice between starting (Buchholz) or Clemens, I’m taking (Buchholz) off of what I saw tonight."

Rumors have circulated that Clemens next start will be with the Yanks. From the scouting reports - I wouldn't hold my breath that it will be a quality start.