Showing posts with label Johan Santana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Johan Santana. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Dodging a bullet

Johan Santana is heading to the Mets.

This says to me that the Red Sox and Yankees were both out of the bidding at the end.

The Mets gave up four prospects to get Santana, none of which are considered by scouts to be major league ready right now.

Both the Yanks and Sox were offering at least one quality, major league ready prospect along with a package of minor leaguers, all believed to be no more than a year away from the majors. And we've seen, in the Mets, what their top prospects have done in recent years (Lastings Milledge).

If the prospects the Mets sent to the Twins don't pan out, this is going to go down in Minnesota sports history with the following - the Vikings trade to get Herschel Walker, which, in essence, was the impetus for the three-Super Bowl Cowboys; the Twins getting nothing for David Ortiz; the Kevin Garnett trade to the Celtics. Those are just the ones I can think of.

The reason it will be comparable? Because they could have had any one of the following sure-fire major leaguers - Phil Hughes, Jacoby Ellsbury, Coco Crisp, or John Lester. Crisp doesn't have the upside the others have, but it would have given them a center-fielder and lead-off hitter...and they would definitely have had something to show for it.

The Twins played chicken and lost.

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

New Year, new season

Happy New Year to all my readers.

The change of a year is always time for reflection. As I've never been one for resolutions, I'll settle for reflection.

With the advent of 2008, so begins the NFL post season. The Patriots are the odds on favorites, the Colts are being looked at as having the best chance of knocking off the first team that went 16-0. Let's look back at some of what the pundits have said about the Patriots, and some of the other stories that started in 2007, and will follow us through 2008...

"The Eagles have given us the blueprint on how to beat the Patriots..."

This is what the pundits said after the Eagles played the Patriots fairly evenly from wire to wire. The Eagles still lost by a field-goal. Interesting statement, but wrong.

The blueprint provided by the Eagles is the one most likely to beat the Patriots given that they have only beaten teams that have played like that by an average of three points per game. However, until there's a number in that loss column that doesn't look like a big egg, to make that as a definitive statement is just wrong.

The Giants came out and played that same physical game, and gave up 38 points.

The Mitchell Report...

The 2008 baseball season is going to be played under the shadow of the Mitchell Report, and Roger Clemens less than believable denials of his steroid use. Clemens and Barry Bonds are going to continue to dominate the headlines like they have in recent weeks.

Both of these situations will resolve themselves this year, but neither are going to go away any time soon.

Tuna Helper

The announcement of Bill Parcells return to the NFL coincided with the week the Patriots played the now 1-15 Dolphins. The Tuna has already begun to clean house, and rumors have it that he is likely to plunder personnel people from his last NFL stop, the Cowboys.

While the news of him joining his third AFC East franchise will fade quickly, every time this team plays one of his former teams, be it the Jets, Pats, or Cowboys, this will be brought up, as will some variation on the term "Bill-Bowl"

New Englanders need to be ready for that last item at least twice a year for as long as Parcells and Belichick play for their respective teams.

Pacman Jones

With the season over, Jones is likely to receive his reinstatement for next season, assuming he can continue to keep his nose clean, and he can keep out of jail. If one of his many transgressions result in jail time, I wouldn't be surprised to see Roger Goodell extend his suspension.

The Boston Three Party...

The new Big Three of Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett have not only made the Celtics relevant in Boston again, but have the team as the odds on favorite to represent the East in the NBA finals, while on pace for a record 74 win season. Amazing for a team that finished its last season with a second worst league total of 24 wins.

Happy New Year Paul Pierce...it's a brand new day for you.

Overrated Savior...

The rumors regarding the Boston-Minnesota trade of Johan Santana will continue until the season starts, if nothing is consummated before the season begins.

I'm on record as saying that the Sox are already offering too much for a player that the Twins either have to move, or receive nothing for. Minnesota is demanding top prospects as well as Jacoby Ellsbury, along with one of the following pitchers - Clay Buchholz, or Jon Lester.

The Sox package includes Lester, Coco Crisp, and shortstop Jed Lowrie, along with pitcher Justin Masterson. Both Lowrie and Masterson project as big leaguers. Lester already has a better post-season history than Santana who has a horrible ERA in Fenway park, and a history of wilting down the stretch.

Right now the Sox hold the cards in this, and as long as they can keep Santana away from the Yankees without selling the farm - especially considering that the Sox will need a shortstop sometime soon - then I say let Santana languish in Minnesota.

This story might go away come April, but it will return at the trade deadline.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Shut up and play...and ruminations on the potential Santana trade

This has been a tiresome week for me.

I live in Whine Country in Maryland.

I watch the boards and read various articles about the NFL games for several days after the games end on Sunday and Monday. For weeks I have heard fans of other teams bitch and moan about the lack of class of the Patriots. This week I have heard, both locally, and nationally (mostly in interviews with Ravens) how the officials took the game from them (thankfully the national press has pretty much said what follows here...well, with the exception of my sentiments on Samari Rolle).

To that, I answer the following - since Belichick took over, you have never heard players blame each other for any of their losses (Peyton Manning, I'm looking at you), you have never heard the Patriots blame the officials (Ravens, I'm looking at you). The team has gone longer than any other team in the NFL without a player arrested (Bengals, Redskins, Cardinals, Bears, Dolphins, and...well the rest of the NFL, I'm looking at you). The team hasn't had any assistant coaches get into trouble on their own time (Detroit, and Arizona). As a matter of fact, other than Belichick being named in a divorce proceeding and the tragedy that took Marquise Hill, the Patriots are pretty much in the news for playing football.

As for the Ravens and their fan base, the idea that the refs took that game from them is patently ridiculous. While I have made many of the following points elsewhere myself, I would like to thank Peter King for the following summary of the end of Monday night's game -

• New England ball, fourth-and-1, Baltimore 30, 1:48 left, Baltimore up 24-20. At the last second before the snap, Baltimore defensive coordinator Rex Ryan calls timeout. The play went on, with Baltimore stuffing Tom Brady for a loss and, theoretically, that should have been New England's last gasp. One problem.
Only the head coach is supposed to be able to call time on the sidelines. But in
this case, the league has interpreted the rule on a last-millisecond timeout call that the side official cannot be responsible for seeing whether it's the head coach or another coach who calls time. So it's technically legal for Ryan to have called the timeout, and the league's point is the head coach is responsible for controlling his bench. In this case, Brian Billick has to be responsible for his sideline, and when Ryan calls time, the burden is on Billick to accept the call because it happened on the Baltimore sideline.
• New England ball, fourth-and-5, Baltimore 13, 55 seconds left, Baltimore up 24-20. Brady retreats to pass. From the right side of the line, tight end Ben Watson runs downfield into the end zone, with nickel back Jamaine Winborne riding him tightly downfield. Once Watson gets past the 8-yard line, it's illegal for Winborne to have anything but incidental contact with Watson, but he clearly has an arm on him well past the 8, and all the way into the end zone. Maybe the call should have been holding, maybe the call should have been illegal contact, but it was a legitimate call, not a ticky-tack one. Winborne impeded Watson's path.
The back judge, Billy Smith, called holding, a five-yard penalty and automatic
first down. I would have called illegal contact, but both penalties have the same impact, which is to give the Patriots a first-and-goal at the Baltimore 8. Great guts by Smith to make a call in that atmosphere.
• New England ball, first-and-goal, Baltimore 8, 50 seconds left. Brady throws to the left corner of the end zone for Jabar Gaffney, who catches the ball in front of his body with both hands while getting both feet down. During the time he gets both feet down, Gaffney moves the ball in front of him but never takes either gloved hand off
the ball and never juggles the ball. It is ruled a touchdown, and there is a booth review ordered by replay official Dale Hamer. The play is reviewed by ref Walt Anderson and confirmed. Let's remember what replay is: It's to be used to overturn a call only if there is indisputable visual evidence that the call is wrong. There's no way you can look at this play -- and I've seen it 10 times, in slow-motion -- and say there's clear evidence he didn't have control of the ball.
• Baltimore ball, second-and-10, Baltimore 45, eight seconds left. Kyle Boller throws a Hail Mary to the 3-yard line, and, in the middle of the scrum, Baltimore wideout Derrick Mason puts his hands on Patriot cornerback Asante Samuel's shoulders and pulls Samuel down. Mark Clayton makes the catch and is tackled at the three. There is no flag. Big mistake. There certainly should have been offensive pass interference ... but even if that was the call, it would not have changed the outcome. Because the clock expired, and the game can end on an offensive penalty, the game would have been over without the Ravens having another chance to score.

Let's also address Samari Rolle's complaint about the 53-year old former player, and official who called him "boy at least five times." The large black man whom Rolle accused, by his own admission, of having "never strapped on a helmet," in relation to what Rolle felt were bogus calls.

The more that comes out about Rolles complaint, the more it sounds like he incited the ref. Rolle claims that he was told by 110, "boy, shut up and play." Part of his complaint is that Rolle himself is 31 years old and a father of three, and "you don't call a grown man 'boy.'" To which I say, maybe he should act like a grown man and accept responsibility for his actions, and not blame the refs for his teammates screw-ups.

This will result in a talking to the officials by Goodell, but it should also result in a smackdown on the Ravens who seem to think that the officials are trying to help the Patriots by edict from the league offices.

One of the most ridiculous accusations is that the league wants to help Bill Belichick, who has pretty much become the NFL version of Darth Vader in everyone's eyes, win. It was obvious in the way the game against the Colts was officiated, and the way the officials helped AJ Feeley toss three picks, and of course the way the officials ignored an obvious penalty on the Baltimore Hail Mary in the closing seconds. If Clayton gets into the end zone, that's a potentially game changing play on which the refs blew the call. Do Ravens fans think the NFL told the refs to blow that call too?

Bottom line, they need to get their heads out of their asses and really look at how that game was called. Yes, it was poorly officiated, but it was poorly officiated on both sides. And if the second most penalized team in the AFC really thinks that the refs were quick to throw the flags on them, then maybe it has a lot less to do with the Patriots record than the fact that year in and year out they play disciplined football, and, as such, are one of the least penalized teams in the league. That might have followed the Ravens into the game more than any conspiracy by the NFL to keep the Patriots without a loss.

If they don't want the flags thrown, maybe they should try playing with discipline - hell, Ed Reed was five yards off-sides on an extra-point attempt. How often do you see that?

As for Santana, and I'm not talking the guitar legend...

I'm pretty much on record at a number of other blogs as not in favor of this trade. Johan Santana is a superb power pitcher whom I would love to see on the Red Sox for the right price. The deals as structured combined with the rumored contract demands are not the right price. Maybe if Santana were 27, it would be, but he's 29, has already pitched over 1300 big league innings, has faded down the stretch and has been mediocre, at best, in the post season.

This doesn't even take into account Santana's Fenway park numbers - 1-3 (15.2 innings) in three starts and one relief appearance with a 6.89 ERA, 12 K and a 1.85 WHIP. The only win came in the relief appearance and his last Fenway start was 5 innings with a 7.20 ERA. Part of what has hurt Santana in Fenway is the fact that he's a flyball pitcher. Those flyballs that are outs in the Metrodome are going to be doubles off the wall in Fenway.

I can't help but feel that given the fact that Jon Lester is 23, was solid in a year that he came off cancer, and put up better numbers in his first year than Santana in his first, I can't help feeling that giving the Twins Lester and three to four prospects that will likely be playing in the majors within the next two seasons, that the Red Sox are grossly overpaying ala the Vikings for Herschel Walker for a bauble they don't really need. What surprises me here is that the Twins haven't jumped on this offer, given that the Sox are currently not bidding against anyone else.

Why do I compare this to the Walker trade? I think, like Walker in Minnesota, that Santana will have limited success in Fenway, and that his propensity to give up flyballs will negate any upgrade he would otherwise represent over Lester who is likely to average 14 to 16 wins per season over the next couple of seasons (health permitting).

Power pitchers who begin to develop elbow problems like Santana has been exhibiting begin to show significant drop off in numbers between the ages of 33 and 35. Given Santana's demands, I can't help feeling that in four years that the Sox would be paying $20 to 25 million per year and dealing with the same situation that the Mets did this year with Pedro Martinez - paying gobs of money for a guy who couldn't get off the bench until late August due to injury.

And none of this takes into account the domino effect of paying Santana obscene gobs of money in spite of the fact that he's nowhere near the post-season pitcher that Beckett...or for that matter, Lester is.

Given the way last year's JD Drew signing went down, it feels like Theo has become enamored of another shiny bauble that the team doesn't need, and is bidding against himself in an effort to get it.

I understand not being able to do Lester straight up for Santana, even Lester and one player, but Lester and three seems too much for a team that doesn't actually need Santana. Don't even get me started on Buchholz or Ellsbury, neither of which I think should be included in any deal for the Twins ace.

Monday, December 03, 2007

Greed

Greed will be the undoing of Theo Epstein this off-season. If reports are true regarding the Red Sox including likely rookie of the year candidate Jacoby Ellsbury in a trade for Johann Santana, and it's not the bluff that Dave over at The Coffin Corner hopes, then Larry Lucchino needs to step in now.

Sure, getting Santana would be a major move and keep the Sox as favorites in the East for years to come with a rotation of Beckett, Santana, Matsuzaka, and whoever the Sox have left after the trade to fill in the back end of the rotation. However, he's not worth anywhere near what Minnesota is asking - particularly if half his starts are coming in Fenway Park.

I noted the following in response to one of the postings at the Coffin Corner, because I wanted to note what no one has been saying about this deal from the Red Sox end of things -

Everyone is talking about his greatness, nobody is talking about the fact Theo is trying to bring a fly ball pitcher to Fenway who has a career 6.89 ERA when playing in Boston, or the fact that he's 1-4 in five post-season appearances with 3.97 ERA.

The Sox already have a lefty with better postseason numbers - Lester - 2-0 in two appearances with a 1.93 ERA.

At 23 and coming off of cancer treatment, Lester still has tremendous up-side. This season, coming back from injury Lester had a 0.77 Ground ball to fly ball ratio, worse than Santana's career ration of 0.88. However, last year, before Lester's health failed him, his ratio was 1.03 (in 81.1 innings pitched with a 4.76 ERA). In 2000, Santana's first season with the Twins, he tossed 86 innings with a 6.49 ERA to go with the 0.88 ratio (for those out there that don't get the ratio, the lower that number, the higher the number of flies given up by the pitcher).

From everything I have read about recovery from the sort of lymphoma that Lester suffered from, he won't be 100 percent until the start of the 2008 season - and he still posted a lower ERA this season than last.

I would be worried that the Sox were giving up way too much for a pitcher that hasn't been very good in Fenway through his career.
Many out there point out that Santana is more accomplished than Lester, and that Lester is unlikely to reach Santana's level. To that I say, I would rather have the solid middle of the rotation guy who comes up big in the postseason, than the ace who might account for maybe six more wins during the regular season, but disappears in the postseason.

I hate to say it, but right now, Santana is the A-Rod of pitching. He's a pretty bauble that hasn't been able to seal the deal when the pressure was on to bring home a championship.

Keep the everyday player. Keep the two major league ready pitching prospects. Let the Yankees gut their youth once again for a player who has on-year followed by off-year, and doesn't show up in the big games.

Take your chances Theo with what you have. Santana isn't what the Sox need.