Minor activities and scheduling thoughts

Friday night in Frederick, MD, a short drive from the Smith homestead, is going to be a fun one. Frederick is the home to the Single A Frederick Keys - part of the Carolina League, and opponent to the Salem Red Sox, who happen to be in town this weekend.

When I first moved to the area the Wilmington Blue Rocks were the Red Sox affiliate that played the Keys, and then the Blue Rocks changed their major league affiliate, leaving me sans Sox prospects to watch. This weekend I get to watch five of the Sox top 20 prospects - Ryan Kalish, Luis Exposito, Yamaico Navarro, Che-Hsuan Lin, and Kyle Weiland - as well as Jonathan Paplebon's brother Josh.

I'll be at the game at Harry Grove Stadium on Friday night with the family, but will probably leave long before the end of the game (hard to stay till the end with a 20-month old), but it's always a fun time. My seven-year old loves the kids' zone with the carousel, and my wife loves the fact that the stadium serves beer from both of the town's brew pubs.

It'll be my first time to the stadium this season. For those of you baseball fans who have never made it to a minor league game, I highly recommend it.

Pats Schedule...

As I mentioned yesterday, I believe that the strength of schedule that people talk about at this time of year is a faulty way to view the difficulties of the coming season. It has no bearing - before last season the Dolphins were a one win team, this season they go in having won 11, the previous season was no predictor of future success.

Based on last season's results, the Pats have the third hardest schedule in the NFL. That said - Miami is sneaking up on no one this season, and while it's possible they might repeat their 11 win performance that won them the AFC East last season, I don't think that they're going to surprise anyone with the Wildcat offense in 2009 and they'll slide. The Jets currently have no quarterback, and key players on the Bills are going to start the season suspended, putting Buffalo into an early hole. And that's just the AFC East. There are definitely issues with some of the other teams as well - are Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan going to have surprise seasons again? I don't think so.

I could go on, but I'm going to address another interesting quirk in the schedule. What happens when the Pats hit the bad weather months of November and December? Let's look at the schedule...

After the bye week at the beginning of November in week 8, the Pats play out the string as follows:

Sun 11/8/2009	1:00 PM	vs	Dolphins	WBZ / CBS
Sun 11/15/2009	8:20 PM	@	Colts	WHDH / NBC
Sun 11/22/2009	4:15 PM	vs	Jets	WBZ / CBS
Mon 11/30/2009	8:30 PM	@	Saints	WCVB / ESPN
Sun 12/6/2009	8:20 PM	@	Dolphins	WHDH / NBC
Sun 12/13/2009	1:00 PM	vs	Panthers
Sun 12/20/2009	1:00 PM	@	Bills	WBZ / CBS
Sun 12/27/2009	1:00 PM	vs	Jaguars	WBZ / CBS
Sun 1/3/2010	1:00 PM	@	Texans	WBZ / CBS

So - in New York, at home, in Houston, at Indy, at home, at home, in New Orleans, at home, at Buffalo.

With the exception of the game at Buffalo in December, the bad weather games the Pats really face are at home in December against the Panthers, and Jaguars, and maybe the November contest against the Jets. Otherwise the Pats are playing in warm climates, or domes. At first glance that might not seem to be important, but for anyone that remembers the way the Pats passing game slowed down at the tail end of the season during their 16-0 run, they might want to think about how Tom Brady and the receiving corps might thrive in some of these late-season contests.

Fewer late season games in cold and wind might mean for a more prolific late season offense, helping to keep the defense off the field.

Back again...

So, after a weekend at the 'rents house with all the siblings and assorted nieces, and a week wherein I've been working on an article for a local business magazine, I finally have some time to look at some of the current sports stories...

Boy did the Sox, and the bullpen need that start from Tim Wakefield. Wake had the knuckleball working so well he took a no-hitter into the eighth only a day after Terry Francona was forced to use six relievers due to the fact that Daisuke Matsuzaka couldn't get past the first inning.

While it was good to get the win, I think whether the team won or lost was irrelevant. The fact that Wake gave the team a complete game, however, was huge, and needed more than anything else.

If the Celtics don't get a reasonably healthy Kevin Garnett back...well, let's just say I don't see the team making it to the finals. They got absolutely waxed by the Cavaliers, and eked out a win against a far inferior Sixers team. Playing like that right now could get them ousted in the first round.

That's one hell of a schedule that the Patriots are facing this season. Based on their opponents' records from last season, the Pats have the third hardest road to the post season based on strength of schedule facing only two teams that had a sub-.500 record last season, and only two other teams that had a record as bad as .500.

That said, I would like to note that, for all of that, the strength of schedule as a metric for the difficulty of season means nothing at this time of year - zip. nada. zilch. There are plenty of fans that buy into, though. Last season the Pats started the season with the easiest strength of schedule based on the fact that the teams they were facing were 99-157 in 2007 with games against only 4 of 2007's playoff teams. Those same teams improved by 24 games last season to reflect an aggregate record of 123-133 with games against six of playoff teams, including contests against both of the Super Bowl contestants. That moved the Patriots into the middle of the pack in regards to strength of schedule by the end of the season.

CC Rider

Yesterday was a good day for me.

I finished my taxes only to find I was getting a big, fat refund, and CC Sabathia looked about how I expected him to.

The Yankees' two big off-season acquisitions for the just north of Manhattan Project - Fat Man (Sabathia), and Little Boy (Mark Teixiera), were ugly in their debuts for the Bronx Bommahs. Fat Man's return to the American League, a place where his career stats have always screamed number two starter, was uninspired. The Yankees would-be-ace failed to get out of the fifth inning, giving up six earned runs in four-and-a-third innings for a rousing 12.46 ERA .

I don't expect that Sabathia will be this bad during the course of the season. But I also don't expect him to be good. He dominated the hitter's B-League, tearing up the NL Central, but has only thrice in his eight seasons had an ERA below 3.60 over the course of a full season. And only twice in the AL has he managed an ERA below that number (last season he was at 3.83 before the trade). Additionally, this is a man coming off the two highest inning total of his career (241 in 2007, and 253 in 2008), and he's not exactly a fitness freak. And I addressed that in a previous post when I wrote -

I look at the Yankees off-season and can't help think that they learned nothing from the Carl Pavano signing. Nor have they learned anything from the history of fat pitchers.

The CC Sabathia signing might work well for them in the regular season for the first year or two, but eight seasons? That's nuts.

Sid Fernandez, who had weight issues, last started more than 20 games at age 29. Former Red Sox reliever Rich "El Guapo/the human zeppelin" Garces was respectable until the age of 30. At 31 he posted a 7.59 ERA and was out of baseball after that season. Once dominant Bartolo Colon had an eight season stretch wherein he pitched fewer than 200 innings only once (188 in 2000) and averaged 32.6 starts per season. When he turned 33 he went away - compiling a total of 35 starts and fewer than 200 combined innings over the final three seasons of his career. Sabathia turns 30 in 2010.

The future is not bright for him.

As for Mark Teixiera, I expect he will likely be in line with his career averages when the smoke clears, but putting up a big donut in four at bats, leaving four men on and only getting on base once - not the start that Hank and Hal were hoping for, I'm sure.

An absolute mugging

My initial thought was to describe the Bears trade for Jay Cutler an absolute mugging - the bears traded Kyle Orton and this year's first and third round picks as well as next year's first rounder for Cutler and Denver's fifth round pick this year. My wife pointed out that when one is mugged that the muggee doesn't look at the mugger and say, "here, take my credit cards and cash, and I'll put up some token resistance by making a half-hearted effort to scratch your face."

She's right. No. This was more like Denver telling the Bears to bend over and drop trou, and the Bears saying back, "with Vaseline or without?"

This was an absolute violation of the Catholic priest variety.

As mediocre as Kyle Orton has been, Cutler hasn't actually been significantly better. A quick look -

In three seasons Orton has played in 33 games while Cutler has played in 37 games. I will give Orton's actual numbers and his 37 game projections...

Yes, Cutler has a better completion percentage and put up more yardage - 62.5 percent and 9024 yards to Orton's 55.3 and 5319 yards (5964 over 37 games), but Cutler has also been throwing to the likes of Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Javon Walker and Rod Smith. Orton's two best targets in the last three seasons would both be picked after any one of the four above - Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian. The trade will answer the question as to whether the receivers made the QB or vice versa with these two.

But let's look at some other telling stats...

Cutler has thrown 37 interceptions in 37 games, Orton has had 27 in 33. Cutler has an average of 11.8 yards per catch to Orton's 10.5.

But here are some of the really important ones - Orton is 21-12 with and was instrumental in getting the Bears to at least one playoff appearance. Cutler is 17-20 with no playoff appearances. Cutler's best season was 8-8. Orton's? 10-5.

Considering that Cutler was drafted 11th and Orton 106th, I would expect more from Cutler than this.

And if I were a Bears fan this morning, I would be buying something to sooth that burning feeling coming from my sphincter.

Losing the game of chicken...

or Beware the Idiots of March...

A little translation of professional athlete speak - I want the team to show it's committed to me. Translation - I want to see more money in a new contract.

From New York Newsday -

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported on the night of March 15, the day after Josh McDaniels met with [Jay] Cutler and his agent, Bus Cook, that the pair requested a trade. Which the Broncos verified.

"The Denver Broncos confirm that Jay Cutler has requested a trade," a team spokesman told the AP March 16.

Cutler, during what seemed an unambiguous interview, told Mortensen March 15, "Really, it's best for me to move on."

From a Fox report -

"I was surprised they decided to trade me this soon," Cutler said. "I didn't want to get traded. This wasn't me. (The Broncos) had been going back and forth saying things, wanting me to be their quarterback and then they didn't."

"I really didn't want this. I love Denver. I really like my teammates. I didn't want it to get this far."

If Jay Cutler has any credibility in any locker room anywhere ever again, I will be sorely disappointed in his future teammates. So...was he bluffing in order to get a new contract? Did he think that by showing up his new coach and GM that he was showing his Broncos teammates his sterling leadership qualities? Is this guy really this big an idiot?

Some really quick hits...

Good win for the Celtics against a Bobcats team that's beginning to peak at the right time for a playoff run.

Not really surprised that Clay Buchholz was sent to Pawtucket to start the season, but I will be surprised if we don't see him in Fenway again sometime this season.

Tommy Lasorda just doesn't get it. In his defense of nephew Mike Piazza (related to the recent allegations of steroid use), Lasorda said that Piazza busted his ass in the weight room. That was part of his reasoning that his nephew couldn't have been using. I guess he doesn't know that steroids don't magically give one muscles, that you have to spend time in the weight room or you just get fat. He also uses the idea that Piazza is church-going in his defense of his nephew.

Let's get something straight here - just because someone is inherently a good person, or regularly attends church, that doesn't exempt them from doing something bad or stupid. Andy Pettitte, by all accounts, is a very religious guy, and a good guy in the locker room. Nailed for HGH. Then of course history is littered with religious people that just were not good human beings - take Tomás de Torquemada or Hitler (by all accounts, extremely religious). And please don't think I'm comparing Piazza to Hitler or the grand inquisitor of the Spanish Inquisition - I'm only trying to point out that religiousness is no defense and no guarantee of a person being good.

It looks like Donte Stallworth is getting charged by Miami authorities. It sounds like it's what I previously called. This should surprise no one, and should Stallworth work out a deal that avoids jail time, he's still going to miss games due to whatever suspension is handed down for his lapse in judgement.

April Fools

We are on the precipice of a pagan holiday, once a celebration of the start of the spring planting season, All Fool's Day has developed into a day of practical jokes both erudite (see George Plympton's "Curious Case of Sid Finch") and ridiculous (see the idiot that put a whoopee cushion under his boss's ass). In honor of the day, I want to address some of the biggest fools we've had to deal with as sports fans in recent days.

Here five of my favorites. They are in no particular order -

Michael Vick - As noted here yesterday, this fool thinks he's going to come back from his legal issues and garner a contract worth $10 million per season as a quarterback in the NFL. That's the number he used to write his bankruptcy plan, the plan he's using to repay creditors. This is a man that, at best, might get a job as a back-up quarterback, and it's not even assured that his jail time is done given the fact that he may have plundered his entertainment marketing company, MV7's pension plan to pay some of his debts.

Plaxico Burress - This fool derailed the Giants Super Bowl hopes when he shot himself in the leg. In a nightclub. With an unregistered (illegally owned) handgun. Now he's in court, trying to work out a plea deal (adjourned until June 15). I guarantee that any plea will include jail time, and the man will miss at the very least a part of the season due to the impending suspension.

Alex Rodriguez - To put it simply, this is a man that can't get out of his own way. In the last year he has been caught cheating on his wife, cheating the game of baseball, and cheating the fans. He's engaged in interviews that, within days of each other, contradicted his previous interviews. Heap that on top of a guy whose batting average, over the course of his career, is at its lowest in September (.285), and October (.250), (in no other month is his batting average below .299) you have a paper lion who needs to figure out how not to be his own worst enemy.

Pacman Jones - It's hard to know where to start with this bonehead. To put it succinctly, once thought to be one of the up and coming corners when with Tennessee, Jones' legal issues have made him radioactive around the league, but not so much so that Dallas wasn't willing to give him a flyer. After a lackluster season with the Cowboys, combined with his legal issues, Jones has failed to generate any interest - hell he's failed to generate even rumors of interest - in his services, and may have effectively worked his way out of the league.

Al Davis - Once the owner of the NFL's resident bad boys, and once a winning coach in his own right, Davis has become the league's unintentional jester. Changing coaches far more frequently than he changes 1970's jumpsuits, Davis has created instability at the team's most important position (coach), drafted poorly, undermined the authority of his coach, and has invariably blamed his team's failings on the coaching. The only common thread in his team's failures - Al Davis. It doesn't take a genius to figure this one out.

Celebrate the fools, it's their time.

Ankiel biter...

By the age of 20 Rick Ankiel had logged 208 innings pitched over the course of 40 appearances (35 starts) that spanned his rookie season and a September call-up when he was 19. He did it all with a very respectable 3.46 ERA.

He was a promising young pitcher with enormous upside. He was the sort of talent that general managers expect to be anchoring a staff by the precocious age of 25.

Instead, Ankiel melted down, wilting under the pressure of being the rising star with only 11 more appearances spanning only 36 total innings during the 2001 and 2004 seasons. During that time he gave up 25 earned runs (6.25 ERA), with a whopping 66 base runners. He couldn't have found the strike zone even if he were pitching to a line-up with the likes of Shaq, Yao Ming, and Robert Parrish.

Why, you might ask, is Ankiel, who disappeared from the mound by end of the 2004 season relevant right now. It's summed up with two words - Dontrelle Willis.

Between the 2007 and 2008 seasons the then free agent pitcher was considered the big prize of the hot stove season. On forum after forum there were members of Red Sox Nation calling for Theo Epstein to run out and trade for the D-Train. Readers here may recall, I railed against this, in no small part due to the fact that Willis was looking for Ace money in an extension, and I didn't think the man could carry a staff for a season.

Now, a little more than a year removed from the trade and contract extension that now has netted Willis another $22 million over the next two seasons, the pitcher finds himself on the verge of being out of the minors - even though the Tigers are on the hook for the $22 mil.

Willis, in his time on Detroit's dime will have earned $29 million for pitching a total of 24 innings. Twenty-four innings of brutal, bullpen destroying starts during which he gave up 25 runs.

While I didn't think Willis was any better than a third starter at best, and I saw his career heading in the wrong direction, I didn't think he would go Rick Ankiel and just drive his career off the edge of a cliff a-la Bill Murray in Groundhog Day. As for the medical excuse they came up with - I might be wrong about this, but something sounds really fishy about an anxiety disorder being diagnosed by blood tests. Never heard of that before.

The only question that remains is can Willis reinvent himself like Ankiel? If he wants to continue in baseball, then he needs to.

Wrapping the weekend

Condolences to Texans running back Ryan Moats who had to deal with a special level of stupidity last week while his mother-in-law lay dying in a hospital bed. If you click on the link and read the article, take the time to watch the footage of what happened.

Currently, the officer who detained Moats is on a paid suspension while the incident is under investigation.

My own opinion - if a police officer commits an act so egregious that it merits a suspension, then the person shouldn't get paid for getting to stay at home. I'm not saying the money should be lost either, should the officer be found to have acted properly - I think that the officer's pay should be held in trust until the end of any investigation. Should the officer be cleared, then that person receives their back pay. If the officer is found guilty, then the pay is forfeit. As the system is, the moron who detained Ryan Moats is, in essence, getting a paid vacation for what he did.

That's just ridiculous.

Brad Wilkerson was informed this weekend by Terry Francona that he would not be making the team. I still say this was a good signing. It was a low risk signing with the potential for a big payoff if Wilkerson reverted to his earlier career form. He didn't and now he's gone without the team in the hole for a big paycheck.

Michael Vick lives in a fantasy world...

According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution,

The embattled Atlanta Falcons quarterback is hoping to earn as much as $10 million a year or more, according to court filings in his bankruptcy case. Under the plan he submitted to the court, Vick would keep the first $750,000 of his annual income over the next five years. After that, a percentage would go to his creditors based on a sliding scale.

I don't know who he's talking to that is telling him he'll be able to earn $10 million per year, but that number isn't the least bit realistic.

There are a few basic things that Vick needs to realize - one; he's never going to make that sort of annual salary in the NFL again. Two; few, if any, teams will give him a shot as their quarterback. Three; he's going to be on a really short leash wherever he goes, if anywhere. Like Pacman Jones short. He screws up, he misses a meeting and forgets to call the office, he accidentally spits on the coaches shoes, he's gone.

This isn't just about the incarceration - this is about a guy who has failed his first team in the NFL on every conceivable level. The quarterback is supposed to be the face of the franchise and no team is going to want to market a convicted felon, animal abuser, and drug user to families in their fan base. Nor are they going to want to have to deal with the hard sell that's trying to tell 52 other guys in the locker room that they need to follow the guy that didn't want to put the extra time in when he played for Atlanta, because he had illegal enterprises that took precedent over the team. I could go on, but I think I made my point.

Digging the hole ever deeper

So Michael Vick is back in the news again, and yet again, it's for the wrong reasons.

I have linked to a reasonable, but incomplete AP article on the fact that Vick is being targeted by federal authorities again. This time for illegally dipping into MV7's, his company's, pension plan to the tune of $1.7 million in order to benefit himself. Those benefits included using at least a portion of the money to pay restitution ordered as part of his dog fighting conviction/plea.

As the trustee of a company's pension plan, this is a big federal no no.

The AP story fails to mention how. So let's address that...

When Vick entered his plea to the dog fighting charges, he was a first time offender, and as such, got off with a light sentence based on sentencing guidelines. Now the U.S. Department of Labor is alleging that Vick, in order to address one federal offense, committed a second one. The law that Vick allegedly violated is US Code: Title 18, Part 1, Chapter 31, Section 664 and reads as follows -

Any person who embezzles, steals, or unlawfully and willfully abstracts or converts to his own use or to the use of another, any of the moneys, funds, securities, premiums, credits, property, or other assets of any employee welfare benefit plan or employee pension benefit plan, or of any fund connected therewith, shall be fined under this title, or imprisoned not more than five years, or both.

As used in this section, the term “any employee welfare benefit plan or employee pension benefit plan” means any employee benefit plan subject to any provision of title I of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974.

It is interesting to note that Vick's bankruptcy does not absolve him of his fiscal responsibility to any pension plan he set up for his employees. And, if the allegation is true, Vick, in essence, stole $1.7 million from his employees, apparently with the aid of two of his fiscal advisers.

This severely complicates things going forward for Vick. According to the AP report -

Vick's plan for paying his creditors is based largely on his intention to resume his NFL career. Vick was suspended indefinitely after his 2007 indictment, and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has said he will review Vick's status after he is released.

The Falcons still hold the contract rights to Vick but have said they will try to trade him. Vick's bankruptcy plan would allow him to keep the first $750,000 of his annual pay. After that, a percentage would go to his creditors based on a sliding scale.

In essence, Vick's future earnings are already being garnished to pay off his debts and the plan is based on the idea that he will return to playing football. As if Goodell didn't have enough ammo in regards to Vick between the dog fighting, lying to the NFL, and getting nailed for drug use while awaiting trial, now there's this. With this additional violation of federal statute, not only does it allow Roger Goodell to extend the suspension, it also looks like there may very well be additional jail time for Vick, whose stupidity seems to know no bounds.

And before I have the occasional meat-head that yells that it's a racial thing and the government is just trying to keep a black man down, let's remember that Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Warren Moon have all done quite well in spite of their bone-headed moves, and none of them ended up in jail.

Rapid fire again

It's been released to the press that the pedestrian struck by Donte Stallworth was not in the crosswalk at the time of the accident, nor was Stallworth driving excessively fast at only ten miles per hour over the speed limit. In spite of reports of intoxication, those two facts might be enough to keep Florida authorities from pursuing the most serious of possible charges - vehicular manslaughter, and it's likely those two facts will keep the wide receiver our of jail.

Anyone else see OLB Clay Matthews III, as a strong candidate for the Pats' first pick in the draft if he's still around at the 23rd pick? The guy's a 6' 3" 246 pound outside backer with sterling blood lines, being the son of former NFL linebacker Clay Matthews, Jr (19 seasons for the Falcons and Browns - including time playing for Bill Belichick), grandson of Clay Matthews (four seasons in the 1950's as an offensive tackle and defensive end for the 49ers), and nephew of former offensive lineman Bruce Matthews (Oilers/Titans, 19 seasons).

It's just a hunch that we'll see him in a Pats uni this year, but I also thought there was a fair chance that the team would make a run at Zack DeOssie given Belichick's familiarity with the family. So, who knows?

Scouting reports from the WBC say that Daisuke Matsuzaka was pounding the strike zone with his fastball and pitching less tentatively than he did during last season. The Diceman wasn't the most dominant pitcher in the tournament, but he wasn't far off in posting a 2.45 ERA over 14.2 innings. He gave up only four runs on 14 hits along with five walks and 13 strikeouts (making his WHIP 1.30). Not bad for going against (theoretically) the best that the world has to offer.

Should Matsuzaka build off of this, and stay aggressive during the season, the Sox likely have at least four starters that will win at least 12 games between Dice, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Wakefield. If Penny can stay healthy and return to pre-Dodger form, we could be looking at a staff that has four starters winning at least 15 games and a fifth winning at least 12. My guess is that Beckett, Dice and Lester all end up between 16 and 20 wins, Penny between 14 and 16, and Wake at around 12 or 13 (assuming the staff remains reasonably healthy). That means that from the rotation alone we could be looking in the range of 80 wins.

I liked what I saw of George Kottaras in last night's preseason match up against the Yankees.

It looks like Lance Armstrong's come-back bid has been slowed down severely. Armstrong, the single most dominant force in the sport of Cycling - ever - broke his collar bone during a recent stage of the Vuelta of Castilla and Leon race in northern Spain. Some had speculated that this might keep him out of the sport's premier event, the Tour de France.

He'll ride in it, I just don't know that he will be in top form and that he will be able to compete for the yellow jersey.

According to literature, his injury will take six to eight weeks to heal. That would put him on schedule to possibly be healthy, but not particularly competitive in the Giro d'Italia on May 9th - the last major race he can possibly use as a tune-up before the grueling TdF.

Given I thought he, despite his age and the time he had taken off, was the likely favorite going into the Tour before the accident, I think this makes the race more compelling.

Rounding up loose ends...

By now I'm sure anyone who reads this blog is aware that former Patriots receiver Donte Stallworth was involved in an unfortunate incident recently wherein he struck and killed a pedestrian. At this writing charges have not been filed, but given that his blood alcohol level was well over the legal limit, it is only a matter of time.

At the very least this will result in a suspension for Stallworth, and probably jail time. This is the sort of thing that can potentially serve from 5 to 15 years, depending on what they have determined the degree of the offense to be. I expect a deal to be cut that will either allow Stallworth to stay out of jail, or to serve a minimum amount of time - meaning I don't believe he will be found guilty of vehicular manslaughter as provided by the Florida State Penal Code.

And here are five things I think based on what I have seen the last week -

1. For all the injuries the Celtics have suffered, I think they have happened with plenty of time for the Green to get healthy. Once healthy, I think that it was more important for the Cavs to get the one seed than the Celtics. Should the current seeded positions remain constant, I believe we'll see the C's play the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. If the C's steal a game in Cleveland early in the series, then I think the series favors them.
2. I firmly believe that Junichi Tazawa will make his big league debut this season as a back of the rotation/middle reliever.
3. This is a guess, but it seems to me that Theo is giving George Kottaras the opportunity to show the organization that he is the heir-apparent to Jason Varitek. My bet would be, given the glut of pitching prospects in the minors, if Kottaras struggles, or at least fails to even show flashes during the regular season, then and only then will we see a trade with Texas consummated for one of their catchers.
4. I don't think that the Patriots are done with the defensive overhaul - I've said it before and will say it again: Jason Taylor is the most logical and Belichick-ian choice to play opposite Adalius Thomas. He is likely to be signed by the team sometime after the draft and will take less money to go to the Pats just for the chance to win. I also think that Shawn Crable will get a long look in training camp as the future at that same location.
5. I think Yankee fans are going to have a tough April. The team's best early season player, Alex Rodriguez, is likely to miss the first month of the season, CC Sabathia has huffed and puffed his way to a Spring Training ERA that is dwarfed only by his Michelinman-like physique and their big-name in-the-field acquisition, Mark Texiera, is a notorious slow starter (.259 career hitter for the month of April, his next lowest monthly average - .282 in July). I firmly believe this is a team that's on track to be playing catch-up again, and they will be chasing both the Red Sox and the Rays.
   

Rapid Fire

And not the Brandon Lee flick...

A-Rod, known better in some circles as Slappy McBluelips, is in the news again for yet another boneheaded thing. Slappy posed for a series of sultry photos for Details Magazine, which included a shot of the man making out with the person he loves the most - himself.

There are a lot of stupid things he's done - the hand slap, the yell rounding third, the steroids (rumored to go back as far as high school - which would explain no significant spike in his career stats), his series of contradictory explanations regarding the steroids, getting caught with the stripper in Toronto - but somehow I don't see this flying in the locker room.

The more I think about it, the less likely I think Julius Peppers ends up in New England. I believe that the Pats may have called the Panthers to see what it would take, but I also think that the numbers don't add up - yes, signing him would make it likely that some of the other players would have to be allowed to walk, but I also think for Peppers to come into the fold, he would have to take a considerable cut from what he would make as a franchise player. The Pats aren't going to pay more for Peppers than they do for Tom Brady.

That doesn't even take into account that I find it hard to believe that the Pats would pay out big money to someone who has never played the position.

Also, staying with Peppers, for somebody who wants desperately out of Carolina, he's virtually handcuffed himself by not signing the franchise tender. Without the tender signed, Peppers remains a free agent, however no one will touch him due to the compensation that would be owed to the Panthers - two first round picks. As a free agent, Carolina does not actually hold Peppers' rights and cannot trade him, but are handcuffed in free-agency because, until Peppers signs elsewhere, the team has to have the money available on the books in case Peppers signs the tender - so, even though he's not signed, he counts against the cap. How's that for a kick in the nuts - Peppers, in effect, can't get out of Carolina because he hasn't signed the tender, and Carolina can't improve until they're rid of Peppers, and he's not actually under contract.

For my money, I still say the Pats sign Jason Taylor to small money to play opposite Adalius Thomas. I expect the signing won't happen until sometime after the draft.

The Yankees brain trust cannot be happy with the spring that their big acquisition, CC Sabathia, is having. In fewer than eight innings pitched he has an ERA in excess of 7.00. The Yanks went out and spent big money on a pitcher pushing maximum density that racked up 90 innings in his last 12 starts (not including a brutal start in the playoffs against Philly where he failed to get out of the fourth inning). He had more complete games in the second half last season than he has had in any one whole season in his career. I can't help but think the big money for Sabathia over the long term, and possibly even the short-term is a bad idea.

The Celtics have been hit with some injury issues, but I think there's still enough time for them to get healthy going into the playoffs.

Ditto for the Red Sox going into the regular season.

Good luck to all with their brackets.

Pepper pot...

So, the big rumor right now is that the Pats are on the verge of acquiring Julius Peppers. A lot has to be done before that acquisition is a reality. Even if the Pats and Panthers reach an accord, it will be contingent upon negotiating a new contract with Peppers, who right now is in line to make more than Tom Brady in the coming season.

That's not going to happen - not on the Patriots.

If this does happen, I would say that the trade is probably about a month away. I would be at least a little surprised if the trade happens more than two weeks before the draft actually happens.

But let's take a look at the potential Patriots retooled defense, just for fun...

The Pats had two games in which the Offense was culpable in the demise of the defense due to its inability to stay on the field in those games, and had three other games where the defense either couldn't get off the field due to their lack of pass rush (Chargers, Jets), or the defense's inability to adjust to what the opposing offense was doing (Dolphins).

Some of the issue was pass rush, some was coverage.

The retooled starting line-up (if the Peppers trade works out) will look like this...

Adalius Thomas (OLB) Leigh Bodden (CB)

Richard Seymour (DE)
Jerrod Mayo (ILB) James Sanders (SS/FS)
Vince Wilfork (NT)
Tedy Bruschi (ILB) Brandon Meriweather (SS/FS)
Ty Warren (DE)

Julius Peppers (OLB) Shawn Springs (CB)

Nickel: Ellis Hobbs

With the injuries suffered by the Pats last season at a lot of these positions allowing for significant playing time for Gary Guyton, Pierre Woods, (and the early injury to Shawn Crable) as well as corners Jonathan Wilhite and Mike Richardson, as well as the (re)signings of Eric Alexander, Mike Wright and Tully Banta-Cain, these moves give the Patriots significant depth on defense that they lacked last year.

Additionally, this gives the team two legit cover corners, and a healthy Warren, Thomas, and the addition of Peppers, a solid pass rush. Should the Peppers deal not be consummated, I would expect that Thomas would move to the other side with a likely platoon of Crable and Banta-Cain coming off the backside, unless the Pats sign Jason Taylor. If the Peppers trade happens, I don't think the Pats sign Taylor.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see a move at safety before preseason.

Other quick thoughts -

Yup, it's official, Jay Cutler is a moron. I said this before, and I will reiterate it - first, it's disingenuous of someone to demand a trade, then get offended when his name comes up in trade talks. Second, I can only hope this idiot gets traded to Detroit.

This guy thinks he should be untouchable, but among starters he had the 6th best QB rating in the AFC alone, behind Matt Cassel (and 16th overall, behind such immortals Seneca Wallace, Matt Schaub, and Matt Ryan), 9th best completion percentage (14th in the NFL, behind the likes of Shaun Hill and David Garrard), the 2nd most interceptions (in both the AFC and NFC).

Yes, he logged a lot of yardage last season, but he didn't do it well, and somehow he was a pro-bowler. This is a guy that's a middle-of-the-pack starting quarterback, and he seems to think he's a top five sort of guy.

Best boxing match since the Thrilla in Manilla

And the biggest ass-whuppin' since the Celtics closed out the final game of last year's NBA finals against L.A. with a 39-point anihilation of the Lakers.

If you haven't seen it, this is must see TV.

This is it (keep clicking on the subsequent parts...best one sided sparring match you will ever watch) -

Buying the groceries

As I suspected, the Patriots aren't making a big splash, but they are going about signing a number of solid, proven veterans that should help in the short-run, and could potentially help in the long-run.

They have managed to, with four simple signings (and one re-signing), replace Lonnie Paxton who followed Josh McDaniels to Denver, upgrade from Lamont Jordan at running back, keep needed depth along the offensive line while retaining their largest fullback, and significantly upgraded their defensive backfield.

Discounting the Nathan Hodel signing since it's swapping one long-snapper for another, let's take a quick look at each signing and some of the other transactions the Patriots have had to bolster the team, or retain personnel -

Former Jacksonville Jaguars running back Fred Taylor is probably the biggest signing of the bunch. Taylor, while slightly older, represents an upgrade over the talented but erratic Lamont Jordan. Jordan was a solid part of the running back rotation last season, just as Taylor is likely to be this season. Taylor is more apt to be able to pick up the slack as a starter than Jordan, given the fact that Taylor is coming off a career low in attempts (based on playing in at least 10 games) which still would have qualified as Jordan's third highest number of attempts in a season.

While Taylor at 32 is on the downside of his career, he likely still has enough juice left to be a part time impact player.

Russ Hochstein was re-signed and in so doing the team retained one of their most versatile offensive linemen, and with Heath Evans moving on to the Saints, Hochstein moves to the top of the depth chart as the team's blocking back.

On March 5 the Pats traded for Eagles receiver Greg Lewis, a burner who is likely to be the third receiver. Lewis has shown flashes, and has apparent upside, but has yet to show the sort of consistency that Jabar Gaffney gave the third receiver position. If it works out, Lewis gives Tom Brady a speedster who will likely draw single coverage while defenses double up on Wes Welker underneath and Randy Moss on the other side. If Lewis fails to have a breakout season in this offense, it's unlikely that he will ever blossom.

I like the Shawn Springs signing, but was surprised that it was a three year contract. Given his history of injury, I expected a one-year incentive laden contract, maybe with an option. That said, Springs represents an upgrade over what the Patriots had in their backfield last season. Springs also is the sort of veteran presence that Bill Belichick likes to bring in as a player-coach to bring the youngsters along. As an aside, given Buffalo's recent move, Springs was instrumental in holding Terrell Owens to five receptions for 38 yards in the Redskins second meeting with the Cowboys last season.

The signing I like best, however, is the 27-year old Leigh Bodden. Bodden, cut by the Detroit Lions after only one season, previously played for Romeo Crennel's Browns. In Crennel's defense, Bodden excelled - in three seasons under the former Patriots coordinator, and in defenses that were in the bottom half of the rankings, the 6' 1" corner racked up 11 interceptions, 45 tackles, and 177 tackles.

I still say that the Pats sign Jason Taylor before training camp and he comes in to play as a 'tweener D-end/linebacker in order to bolster the pass rush because, like Springs, he's the sort of veteran player that Belichick loves to bring in at a discount.

Other quick thoughts -

Am I the only person out there that thinks Jay Cutler is an idiot - the man demands the Broncos trade him, then gets pissy when they actually try to do so. Am I the only one missing something here? I mean, sure, he threw for 4,526 yards last season, but he also racked up seven interceptions to six touchdowns in the final six games of the season when Denver went 2-4 after starting 6-4. That final stretch included a one touchdown, two interception performance against the Chargers in the final game of the season, the game that would have sealed up the Western Conference and a trip to the playoffs.

Any, and I mean, did anyone out there see the Dominican getting bounced from the World Baseball Classic by the Netherlands of all teams? Anyone? I mean, damn. That was a helluva performance.

The week that Wuz...

This entry is about the good, the bad, and the ugly - I'm going to start with the ugly. Most of the rest sounds pretty inconsequential after the first item, but this is important...

I'm a regular reader of TheCoffinCorner, written by a fellow New England sports fan by Dave from Portland, ME. Dave and his wife had some tough news this week, and need all the good thoughts that can be sent their way. It's hard to write eloquently about a four-year old girl with cancer, or to make things sound noble. I will keep this simple and straight forward -

I have two daughters, one turned seven on Friday, the other is a year and a half old. I know that if either were diagnosed with cancer, it would be devastating. At best, I can only imagine what Dave is going through. I would not change places with him for the world. But I would like to ask my readers to keep him and his family, but his daughter in particular, in your thoughts, and those of you who are religious, your prayers. Send good karma, vibes and any other positive feelings her way in her fight against rhabdomyosarcoma, a cancer most commonly found in children under five.

Good luck little one, we're all pulling for you.

As for some of the sports news, as trivial as it sounds in light of Dave's current issue...

So...Terrell Owens is now a member of the Bills. This is their answer to the offense that disappeared in the second half of the season - a 36-year old wide receiver whose best days are behind him, who failed to break the 40-yard barrier in eight games last season, who broke 90 yards only three games last season (against the 22nd, and 32nd pass defenses in the league before putting up 103 against the Eagles in a 44-6 loss in the final game of the season...way to have an impact TO). Those three games accounted for 416 of his yards on the season. The other 13 games - 669, or a 51 1/3 yard per game average.

The single smartest thing that the Bills have done with this is protect themselves with a one-year contract.

Here are some of the problems with him, outside of the aforementioned issues (and some elaboration of the above) -

• Even the best receivers in the history of the game experience a big drop-off between the ages of 35 and 36, and he already showed last season that he's heading in the wrong direction in regards to being an impact player.
• He has been among the league leaders in dropped passes for at least the last three seasons, and I'm willing to bet that if I dug, that goes back much farther.
• What happens to an over-the-hill receiver that has trouble with contact come December in Buffalo?
• Sure, he's likely to be less trouble over one season, except he's going to an offense that is committed to pounding the ball - What's the over-under for him pitching a fit and ripping a young, not-quite-there QB a new one because he's not getting the ball enough? Embarrassing the coach on the sideline?

Yep, the Bills got 'im. They can have him.

I called it on Shawn Springs. Don't be surprised if, sometime after the draft, Jason Taylor comes in for a visit.

These are the sort of veterans that Belichick likes to have around to teach the young guys. I wouldn't be surprised if Springs parlays an incentive laden one-year deal into a multi-year stay in New England - if he stays healthy this season.

And once again - may everything work out well, Dave, we're thinking of you and yours.

Addition by subtraction

I won't say that Jerry Jones has learned his lesson - he gets too easily distracted by shiny baubles that have no real substance, but he has certainly done more to improve his team by ridding it of problem children than most teams have done this off-season by signing play makers.

In what has been the worst kept secret of the NFL's hot stove season, the Cowboys have finally parted ways with resident league narcissist Terrell "It's All About Me" Owens, making the Cowboys the third contending team to figure out that Owens, despite an enormous amount of talent, creates more problems than he solves.

Owens is quick to point out that he's not former teammate Pacman Jones, also eliminated in the recent purge, and has not had any off the field incidents. This is true.

However, he's ended up at odds with every coach, and quarterback he's every played with. He's divided every locker room. He has been a difference maker, just not in the way teams have hoped.

Everywhere he has played he has left a smoldering crater of a team.

He was not the difference that got the Eagles over the hump in the early Oughts - people seem to forget he wasn't even available for the playoffs that year. Overall, teams in the post season with Owens are 4-7 and in only three of those eleven games has he exceeded 73 yards in receptions. In the remaining eight playoff games he has averaged 44 yards per game.

For all his talent and his demand to get the ball, Owens was first in the NFC and third overall in the NFL with 10 dropped passes one season removed from leading the league in consecutive seasons with 25 in 2007 and 17 in 2006. For a three year stretch he's averaged 13 drops each season.

That doesn't even take into account the fact that Owens is also coming off a season in which he failed to break 40 yards receiving in eight games and had another two in which he didn't hit 70. The three games in which he approached or exceeded 100 - against Seattle, San Francisco and he had a meaningless 103 yards in the 44-6 embarrassment of a season finale against Philly. No one is confusing the defensive backfields in Seattle and San Fran with anything resembling quality.

Getting rid of the ball demanding distraction, yeah, this team just got better.

Bargain shopping and other thoughts

After the signings of Fred Taylor and Chris Baker in the wake of the trade that sent Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel to Kansas City, the Patriots have approximately $16 million in cap space to play with. Realistically, that's not enough with which to make a big splash given the fact that has to account for free-agents and the draft. If you figure half of that goes to the rookie pool and tying up Vince Wilfork to an extension accounts for about half of that (I wouldn't be surprised if they decide that it's either Richard Seymour or Wilfork and they decide it's Wilfork that's the more important player), that leaves about $8 million for free agents. They'll probably try to keep about $2 million to $2.5 million in space heading into the season to cover unemployed veterans for emergency signings.

That leaves between $5 million to $6 million to bring in free agents, which means bargain hunting. Keep in mind that these are rough numbers ganked from http://www.patscap.com/ and I would say that we're looking at a plus or minus about 2 to 2.5 million.

So, who could the Pats get on the cheap - maybe on one year incentive laden deals?

Well, first you have to ask where are they looking to shore up - I'm guessing that we're looking at a receiver or two, a D-end/Linebacker sort, a veteran O-lineman and maybe a couple of defensive backs. I would rank the needs like this -

1. DB
2. Pass rusher
3. WR
4. OL

As such, here are some of the moves I could see the Pats making (not that they will, but none of these would surprise me) -

If Bill Belichick believes he can get them for the minimum plus incentives for games played, I wouldn't be surprised to see either Shawn Springs or Mike Peterson on contracts like that. Peterson, if he can stay healthy, would be a good platoon player to move in and out with Tedy Bruschi. Springs, when healthy, is a highly talented cover corner that can play the league's best receivers one-on-one. Another option to bolster the pass rush, also on an incentive laden contract, is Jason Taylor. I think it's unlikely, and I wouldn't be surprised if he fades into retirement, but I think he would be tempted by what he might see as his best opportunity to go out with a championship. Forget about Lawyer Milloy returning - it's not happening given the fact that the reasons leaked for his release are the same reasons that got him out of New England and Buffalo.

I would also look at maybe Darren Sharper or the likes of Daven Holly and Sean Jones who played under Romeo Crennel on the Browns to come in to bolster the defensive backfield.

With Jabar Gaffney gone to Denver, the Pats' third best receiver over the last couple of seasons has left the building. I would think that the braintrust is going to add here - maybe someone like Devery Henderson or Shaun McDonald. These are guys that have a lot of talent, can be deep threats, but aren't going to get a look if they're trying to get starter's scratch, because neither has shown they're anything more than a third receiver.

I'm not even going to venture a guess at the extra offensive linemen that they will try to bring in, but I'm certain they will given the fact they have every year since Belichick has been coach.

The other end of the rainbow...

At the other end of the spectrum is the Redskins who have fired off one of the dumbest contracts in the history of the NFL. Yup, I'm talking Albert Haynesworth.

Yes, the volatile Haynesworth has been one of the best nosetackles in the game, if not the best, over the last two seasons. In those two seasons he's rocked 91 tackles, 14.5 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. Of course that was done on consecutive one year contracts (45 tackles per season, 7.25 sacks, and 1.5 forced fumbles).

When Haynesworth was on a longterm contract his first five seasons he averaged 36 tackles per season, 1.9 sacks, and had a total of 3 forced fumbles. This is not a guy that plays hard when he knows he's set from a financial perspective.

He's also played in 16 games only once in his career and has averaged just under 13 games per season and has averaged 12.3 games per season since his sophomore season.

Rapid fire

Given the events of the last couple of days, I guess Tom Brady's healthy and and gearing up for the season.

Great piece in the New York Daily News about the new Eight Men Out, the faces of the current baseball scandal and those players likelihood of getting into the Hall of Fame. It's not saying these guys are the only ones to use, it just notes that they have become the face of the scandal.

Just my opinion, but if any of the guys mentioned in that article get in, they need to make Pete Rose eligible for Hall consideration.

Good showing in his first game in green by Stephon Marbury. Here's hoping that it's not too early, or that there's enough time left before the end of the season for Starbury to revert to form.

I'm guessing that Scott Pioli trades away the third pick in the draft in order to get a pick later in the first round and recoup the second rounder he sent to the Pats.

While I think the Pats will go after a linebacker at some point in the draft, or a 'tweener defensive end, I believe that Bill Belichick believes that the likes of Vince Redd or Shawn Crable is going to have a breakthrough season in 2009 (Gary Guyton is more an inside backer). Crable showed flashes in last year's preseason of being a guy who could improve the team's pass rush.

Early returns on Junichi Tazawa from Red Sox training camp have been universally good. While I expect him to start at Portland, I wouldn't be surprised if he were in Boston by the end of the season.

It's interesting that knee jerk reactions to the Yankee spending spree was that they were favorites to win the East. Once pundits had a chance to sit back and look at the teams, most started putting the Bommahs as the second or third best team in the division behind Boston, and sometimes behind the Rays.

I don't think Herm Edwards ever gets a head coaching gig again. Consider - in eight seasons as a head coach he has amassed a 54-74 regular season record (39-41 with the Jets and a brutal 15-33 with the Chiefs), has an abysmal 2-4 playoff record, and his teams have averaged third place finishes (in four team divisions). Wrap that around a coach that turns 55 in a league that's moving away from recycling older coaches in favor of young assistants, and you've got a guy that might get a coordinator gig if he wants to stay in coaching, but he's not leading anymore teams. Have fun with the analyst gig, Herm.

So long, and thanks for all the fish...

I didn't initially intend to use a Douglas Adams reference as a double entendre in regards to the Pats record against the Dolphins during Mike Vrabel's tenure in a Pats uni, it just happened that way.

I will miss Vrabel, but I'm not going to bitch about the team moving him. At this point I trust that the team knows what it's doing from a personnel standpoint. I will say that, even though I agree with the coffin corner that this deal makes sense for the Patriots, I still think this is an absolute steal for the Chiefs. For the 34th pick in the draft the Chiefs got a quarterback that's got nothing but upside who just led the Patriots to a 11-5 record. I would like to have seen the Pats get a fourth rounder as well - even if it were in next year's draft.

Through the course of the season, Cassel actually put up better numbers than Brady did in Brady's first season as a starter back in 2001. There are those that will be quick to point out that Cassel did it throwing to Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

I'd like to point out that Brady did it behind a healthy offensive line and with healthy starters at the running back position - so that advantage is really a wash. And Brady did it with a healthier and better defense in place than Cassel had.

I'm not saying that Cassel is better than Brady, or will ever be better than Brady. All I'm saying is that at the same points in their careers, the two are very comparable - and what GM...what team's fans wouldn't want to take that?

They are getting set at signal-caller on the offensive side of the ball, which lets Scott Pioli build around a cornerstone. Now they can concentrate on building the offensive line through free-agency and the draft.

On the other side of the ball they get Mike Vrabel whom Bill Belichick has described as one of the smartest players he has ever coached.

I've noticed a lot of the stories about this point out that Vrabel is coming off an off year. None of those stories mention that the entire Patriots defensive front struggled. The vaunted defensive linemen seldom tied up the personnel that allowed Vrabel to run free in earlier seasons.

Even if Vrabel is at the tail end of his career, my bet is that he's still got two good years left, and this gives the Chiefs a much needed leader on what was a pitiful, leaderless defense.

More than anything else, these two players were brought in to change the culture and climate of the locker room. They were brought in to help teach the young players on this team how to win.

Will they this year? It's unlikely, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs make some noise in 2010.

For Chiefs fans that think this is a bad deal, or that Cassel is the second coming of Scott Mitchell, let's get something cleared up - unlike many of the back-ups that have come before that turned out to be busts, Cassel has a full season under his belt as a starter. Not three or four starts that got some personnel guys all hot and bothered, but a full season, and has been with your personnel guy since he came out of college four years ago. This isn't some guy that Pioli fell in love with over four games of tape - this is a guy that Pioli has seen on the practice field day in and day out for almost half a decade, and then watched pilot the Patriots to 11 wins (could have been 13 if the defensive line could get into the backfield last season). You're getting a player, and the only thing that could be a problem is the team's offensive line.

One last thought - I can't help but find a certain irony that Cassel will be starting for the team next season to which he owes a debt in regards to getting his chance to start.

Matt, Mike, good luck, so long, and thanks for all the fish. It was a fun run.