Dirty Sanchez

Okay, so maybe I shouldn't have gone there, but I want to address the soaring stock of USC's Mark Sanchez...

A lot of teams seem to be falling over themselves for this kid since the Combine.

Yes, he says the right things, and is evidently very personable, but the odds are against him as a successful starting quarterback in the NFL.

His supporters will point out that he started for USC - a pro-style offense - that he started at USC while Matt Cassel did not, that he lost only one game in his only full season as a starter. But that's really the problem - he's had only one full season. That's been a real trap for teams - scouts get one year looking at a guy who might put up great numbers against mediocre competition. I will come back to Cassel.

Consider - Michael Vick started for two seasons in college and never had a completion percentage as high as 59 percent. That's translated to a completion percentage below 54 in the NFL.

Akili Smith had only one full season in college as a starter and the Bengals made him a number one pick back in 1999. He was 3-14 in the NFL and out of the league in four seasons.

There's actually a long list of college short timers that went high and ended up NFL busts. The lack of information works to a player's favor and against the teams.

Now, onto the Cassel conundrum. People will point out that Cassel, without a college start, is a reason that Sanchez can be successful. While people will argue that, it's not an accurate comparison. Cassel, like quarterbacks 25 years ago, went through the sort of apprenticeship process that was common around the league. Cassel spent four preseasons preparing, three full seasons of practice reps with a professional team, lining up against professional defenses, and even appeared in 14 regular season professional games, racking up 22 completions on 39 attempts before getting his season as a starter. It's not the same as getting a season against college competition.

I'm not saying that Sanchez can't or won't be successful in the NFL. What I am saying is that if he comes into a team and is expected to be the starter when he gets there, then it's highly unlikely that he'll have a good career. If he can go someplace and sit a couple of years and learn the pro-game, he'll be much more likely to be successful.

Given the way quarterbacks are just thrown to the wolves, I have to say I have my doubts.

Bottom End

The Pats enter the contest with the Jets tied for the AFC East lead at 6-3.

This record is a testament to a lot of things - the coaching, the will of the players, and, possibly most of all, the team's scouting department that has managed to find NFL caliber players at the bottom end of the draft to populate the bottom end of New England's depth chart. But it goes farther than that, as the scouting department has succeeded in finding those guys when the draft is over.

There are 63 players (10 on injured reserve) on the roster, of those listed below, none was drafted higher than the sixth round (although a couple were from other teams, I felt it worth noting their original draft status), and most were brought on as rookie free agents (noted as RFA). Almost all have had at least some, if not significant playing time with the regular units as well as with special teams.

Eric Alexander (RFA) - Linebacker, has only been active on special teams for one game this season, but saw action in 12 games last season and got the start in a postseason tilt against the Colts in 2006.

Matt Cassel (7) - Steadily improving replacement part for Tom Brady, progressing at roughly the same rate Brady did when he replaced Drew Bledsoe in 2001. Is 5-3 as a starter, and 6-3 through 8.75 games this season for the Patriots.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RFA) - Signed off the practice squad when the team was down to Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans, Green-Ellis has been solid, scoring four touchdowns in four games to go with a 3.9 yards-per-rush average.

Matt Guttierez (RFA) - Third stringer in 2007, and cut at the end of camp this season, Guttierez was re-signed as the third QB again. Has not seen any playing time outside of the pre-season.

Gary Guyton (RFA) - Has worked his way into a regular rotation with Tedy Bruschi that helps keep the veteran fresh, Guyton has 20 tackles this season playing primarily on third downs. More impressively, he's worked his way into a rotation under a coach that favors veterans at this position.

Larry Izzo (RFA) - Signed as a free agent from the Dolphins, Izzo was an established special teams demon when the Pats signed him. He's here only as a footnote as a player who went undrafted. Even though a smart signing by the Patriots that took an impact player from a division rival, this one I have to credit to the Miami scouting department and Jimmy Johnson.

Stephen Neal (RFA) - Didn't play a down of football in college, has developed into a solid right guard. At times, particularly in the running game, Neal has been punishing.

Lonnie Paxton (RFA) - Buried on the depth chart at tight end, Paxton has carved out a niche for himself as the team's long snapper and an absolute demon on special teams, sometimes making tackles on the same play wherein he snapped the ball.

Mike Richardson (6) - The second year corner out of Notre Dame is raw, but has shown flashes of potential when he's had the chance to play, and could develop into something special - especially now with the depleted secondary, he has a chance to show the coaches what he can do.

Le Kevin Smith (6) - Back-up nose tackle, Smith only has three tackles on the season, but all have come close to the line of scrimmage. Smith has been a solid, if unspectacular back up.

Antwain Spann (RFA) - Spann has appeared in only three games this season, and one last, but has appeared in as many as eight (2006), primarily on special teams, but has seen a little bit of time with the regular defense. Not really an impact player, Spann really has been the proverbial bottom of the roster, yet he has done enough to stick through into his third season.

Raymond Ventrone (RFA) - A hard-nosed, does whatever asked sort of player who has been asked to play downs in the regular defense, offense and special teams. Ventrone has the potential to be a fan favorite - that blue collar guy who does anything asked and doesn't complain. If he develops into any kind of impact player doing that, the fans will love him.

Wes Welker (Tr - RFA) - A walk on in college, undrafted, and later cut by the Chargers, then signed by the Dolphins who traded the guy they thought was a third receiver to the Pats for second and seventh round draft picks. He went on to lead the league in receptions in 2007 and is currently second in the league with 65 catches. Through the two seasons he has also been one of the top Yard After the Catch men.

Pierre Woods (RFA) - Woods is now in his third season with the team. While primarily a special teamer, Woods has seen time in the regular defense spelling Bruschi and Mike Vrabel. With the injury to Adalius Thomas, Woods is expected to pick up the slack left in the wake of that injury.

Mike Wright (RFA) - A personal favorite of mine, Wright is a high motor sort of guy that never stops before the whistle. How he wasn't at the very least a low-round draft pick is beyond me.

Billy Yates (RFA) - Yates is another one of those who was originally signed elsewhere (Miami), and was cut. Yates has developed into a solid back-up tackle, getting starts when there have been injuries along the line. While he was part of the problem in pass protection during the season, he's a guy that can come in and spell the starter for a while without significant drop-off. His issue is when he has to play the whole game.

Tom Brady (6 - IR) - Arguably the best quarterback in football for the better part of the last five seasons, inexplicably was still around after almost 200 players were drafted ahead of him. Every team in the NFL had multiple shots at Brady before the Pats got him. He's only gone on to appear in four Super Bowls, winning three, garnering two SB MVP's, one NFL MVP, and set the single season record for touchdown passes.

A whopping 27 percent of their roster came in the sixth round or later (20.6 percent of the roster went undrafted). Now, I can't say this for certain, having not researched other teams, but I would be surprised to find that one-fifth of any other team was made up of players that went undrafted, or that close to a third of the team came from round six or later (it goes up by another four players if rookie Bo Rudd - injured - and the fifth rounders are included in the list)

Separating fact and fiction

I've been paid to write about sports.

I have been very fortunate, meeting Bela Karolyi, interviewing NFL Films president Steve Sabol, Olympians Shannon Miller, and Kate Sobrero, even talking to the Red Sox front office (that was back in 1996). One of the hardest things, I think, for a good sports journalist to do is to separate personal feelings as a fan from the truth of what is happening on the field.

As fans we can be either hyper-critical or hyper-sensitive about our teams, favorite players, or even executives associated with said team.

I try very hard, and with some difficulty, to look at my favorites with a jaundiced eye. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. In order to prove a point to those of you who took exception to my analysis of your favorite teams or players in my NFL Questions segments, I will give a breakdown on my favorite NFL franchise from top to bottom - identifying strengths, questions, and areas that could be weaknesses -

The New England Patriots -

Bill Belichick, HC - As head coach and pretty much the last man standing in personnel decisions, Belichick generally gets the benefit of the doubt due to the Super Bowls and the multiple playoff berths. It's hard to fault a HC who has been at the head of the class in the NFL since 2001.

Josh McDaniels, OC - Still has some serious development issues as an offensive coordinator, as evidenced last season in a game against (I believe either) the Chargers (or the Dolphins) where McDaniels would call an abundance of runs in the red zone, but largely abandoned the run between the 20's in spite of the fact that the Patriots showed no ability to get the passing game working during the contest. During this game, McDaniels showed no ability to adjust to what was either working for the Patriots, or not working for their opponent. This is an area that needs attention.

Dean Peas, DC - Not much to complain about on the defensive side of the ball when your team allows fewer than 15 points per game (14.8).

All positions will list the players I believe are likely to make the team for both offense and defense.

Offense (up to 26)-

Quarterbacks (3) - Brady, Cassell, Testaverde

• Last season Brady was erratic, although you wouldn't be able to tell based on numbers. His completions and yards were not outside of normal. However, watching the games, Brady often threw short of his receivers and his completion percentage was helped by receivers coming back on underthrown balls. A lot was made about the fact that Brady was getting used to a new wide-receiver corp. If that is true, then why should he struggle any less this season when the projected top three wideouts on the team will be three brand new receivers?
• Cassell will be listed as second on the depth chart and is still a largely unknown commodity.
• Testaverde will primarily be a clipboard holder and a sounding board for the younger quarterbacks. If Testaverde is in a game, the Pats are likely already running away with the contest and Belichick is just trying to get him one more TD pass for the consecutive season record. Either that, or something catastrophic has happened to the two who are ahead of him on the depth chart.

O-Line (9?) - Light, Mankins, Kopen, Neal, Kazcur, O'Callahan, Mruczkowski, Elgin, Hochstein

• While the strength of this line lies in the middle with Kopen, Mankins, and Neal - Matt Light had a strong season last year - particularly against some of the speed rushers that he has traditionally struggled against, shutting down the likes of Dwight Freeney, but continued to struggle against his nemesis Jason Taylor. During the contest with the Dolphins, Miami moved Taylor around and he ate up the Patriots right-tackle-by-committee. The Patriots need one of the right tackles to step up and take the job. Right now tackle is the most likely point of attack for an opposing defense.

Receivers (6?) - Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Gaffney, Washington, Brown, (Jackson - IR)

• On paper they look great. In reality - two burners (Moss, Stallworth) who have had trouble staying on the field, both due to hamstring issues, a reasonably well regarded slot receiver (Welker), a Texans bust (Gaffney), a speedster whose routes are raw even after several seasons in Cincy's receiver land (Washington), and a slot receiver who has lost a step (Brown). This group, to my thinking, is a total crap-shoot. If Moss and Stallworth can stay on the field this can be the strength of the team - Gaffney coming off the bench represents better value than having him as a starter. I gave Washington the nod over Caldwell only because he has special teams value - but I would not rule out Caldwell over Washington just because of the year in the Pats system. Brown will continue to have value to the team as a special teamer and a reserve corner.

Tight ends (4?) - Watson, K. Brady, Thomas, Kranchick(?)

• With a fondness for creating mismatches with a big receiving tight end, Belichick will try to get the ball to Watson a lot. Unfortunately, unless he has worked on his hands, Watson was prone to drops and fumbles, many of which hurt the team on the scoreboard last season. If he has corrected that problem, then Watson becomes a strength - if he hasn't, then he is a definite problem. Brady is considered one of the best blocking tight ends in the game, and that's what he will be expected to do. Thomas showed signs of being a factor in the passing game last season and could develop into a legitimate weapon.

Running backs (4)- Maroney, Evans, Faulk, Morris

• Evans and Faulk are known quantities, their jobs defined. Maroney needs to prove he can stay healthy carrying the load as the primary back after getting banged up while sharing it last year. Morris will likely be used as a change of pace from Maroney.

Defense (up to 25) -

Line (6?) - Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Wright, K. Brown

• The strength of the defense, these guys take the punishment in order to allow the linebackers to make plays. The team can survive injuries to any one of their top three linemen, but there is a much more noticeable drop-off if two go down. Health is imperative here, as is the continued development of back-up Mike Wright.

Linebackers (10?) - Bruschi, Vrabel, Thomas, Colvin, Seau, Izzo, Alexander, Woods, Mays, Lua

• A lot is being made of the age and the possibility that some of these guys may have lost a step. The bigger concern is health. Vrabel and Bruschi played less effectively last season due to being banged up, and Seau was lost for the season after a horrific broken arm. That was three of last season's top four 'backers. The Patriots need some of the younger linebackers to develop at a quicker pace in order to give the older guys breathers and minimize their chances for catastrophic injury.

Corners (4) - Hobbs, Gay, James, Andrews

• For whatever reason, injuries have killed this position for the Patriots in recent years. With Samuel holding out, Hobbs jumps to the top of the depth chart and Gay gets the chance to prove he can stay healthy. Tory James, a long time starter provides depth as does wide-receiver Brown. Andrews makes the team primarily for his special teams contributions. Safeties Hawkins, Wilson, and Merriweather also have experience on the corner. Still, this is an area where the Patriots have the potential to be exploited.

Safeties (5?) - Harrison, Wilson, Sanders, Merriweather, Hawkins

• Like corner, this has been a position hit by injury over the last couple of seasons. They are a better defensive team with Harrison on the field than without. As such, it might be worth limiting his workload to passing downs in order to try and keep him on the field. However, his injuries have allowed Sanders to develop, and Hawkins is better at safety than expected. Merriweather is still a largely unknown commodity that was drafted to eventually be Harrison's replacement.

Special teams (3)

Punter (1) - Miller

• When uninjured, Miller is an excellent directional punter with the now rare ability to coffin-corner his punts. If he is not completely recovered from last season's shoulder issues, look for the Pats to go in a different direction.

Kicker (1) - Gostkowski

• After a strong rookie campaign, Gostkowski needs to avoid a sophomore slump. If he struggles, the Pats faithful will give him an earful.

Long snapper (1) - Paxton

• Solid, gets the job done and gets down the field quickly on punts.

Gunners - Andrews, Washington

• Washington performed this roll in Cincy and Andrews acquitted himself nicely in this role in Foxboro last year.