Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Tidbits

Congrats to Mackenzie Brown, the 12-year old little leaguer from Bayonne who recently tossed a perfect game. It was the first in the history of that little league. She mowed down the entire team she faced - all boys - and in so doing, she got to throw out the first pitch at Saturday's game between the Mets and Nats at CitiField.

The Sox have now won 11 in a row. I can't help but think it's because a 42 year-old knuckleballer put the team on his shoulders when they needed someone to do it, and were it not for that near no-no by Tim Wakefield 11 games ago, the team might still be struggling.

Another note regarding the pitching - Jonathan Papelbon is on pace for 40 saves this season. Former Dodgers closer Takashi Saito could have close to 20, playing Jesse Orosco to Papelbon's Roger McDowell. Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen were tied for second on the team last season with two a piece to Paps' 41. From 1985-88, the wacky McDowell averaged 20 saves per season for the Mets while Orosco, the older veteran, averaged 18 per season as a complimentary piece. While not quite the same, it will be the first time since Papelbon became the team's closer that another pitcher has reached double digits in saves - providing the pace continues. The last time another pitcher even had more than five saves as a member of the Sox was when Mike Timlin racked up nine saves in 2006.

It's been nice to see the Red Sox bats come to life over the last eleven games. Through the first eight, it was as though they were still in extended Spring Training. If the Sox miss the playoffs by a game or two, that 2-6 start will weigh heavily on the team.

One draft note - I have to say that I'm surprised. I really thought that if Clay Matthews, Jr. were available when the Pats were picking that he would be a member of the Patriots today. The flip side - while the team's last two drafts have only been okay, this is a team that has averaged 12 wins per season since 2001, and has missed the playoffs only once in that time - last year when they still won 11 games. So...what do I know?

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Dirty Sanchez

Okay, so maybe I shouldn't have gone there, but I want to address the soaring stock of USC's Mark Sanchez...

A lot of teams seem to be falling over themselves for this kid since the Combine.

Yes, he says the right things, and is evidently very personable, but the odds are against him as a successful starting quarterback in the NFL.

His supporters will point out that he started for USC - a pro-style offense - that he started at USC while Matt Cassel did not, that he lost only one game in his only full season as a starter. But that's really the problem - he's had only one full season. That's been a real trap for teams - scouts get one year looking at a guy who might put up great numbers against mediocre competition. I will come back to Cassel.

Consider - Michael Vick started for two seasons in college and never had a completion percentage as high as 59 percent. That's translated to a completion percentage below 54 in the NFL.

Akili Smith had only one full season in college as a starter and the Bengals made him a number one pick back in 1999. He was 3-14 in the NFL and out of the league in four seasons.

There's actually a long list of college short timers that went high and ended up NFL busts. The lack of information works to a player's favor and against the teams.

Now, onto the Cassel conundrum. People will point out that Cassel, without a college start, is a reason that Sanchez can be successful. While people will argue that, it's not an accurate comparison. Cassel, like quarterbacks 25 years ago, went through the sort of apprenticeship process that was common around the league. Cassel spent four preseasons preparing, three full seasons of practice reps with a professional team, lining up against professional defenses, and even appeared in 14 regular season professional games, racking up 22 completions on 39 attempts before getting his season as a starter. It's not the same as getting a season against college competition.

I'm not saying that Sanchez can't or won't be successful in the NFL. What I am saying is that if he comes into a team and is expected to be the starter when he gets there, then it's highly unlikely that he'll have a good career. If he can go someplace and sit a couple of years and learn the pro-game, he'll be much more likely to be successful.

Given the way quarterbacks are just thrown to the wolves, I have to say I have my doubts.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Getting drafty and some weekend observations...

I'm not a big draft guy.

In spite of how much I enjoy football, I'm not one of those guys who sits down and spends hours watching the draft. I'll flip to it, check the ticker, see who the Patriots picked, but I'm not going to wait and see - in part because I'm not really a college football guy.

That said, I find certain things related to the draft fascinating.

Let's start with the Combine...

Overall, I don't really believe this to be a useless exercise, but I do think the format and some of the perceptions surrounding it to be flawed. The idea that someone should slip precipitously due to a bad 40 time is silly, unless there are mitigating circumstances.

Let's face it, most of these guys teams already have two to four years worth of film on, unless they couldn't crack the line-up until their final year of college. Unless a guy shows up fat, out of shape, and acts like a bone-head, the workout numbers are pointless. The idea that a player can improve their positioning based on a great workout as opposed to what they did on the field is foolish. Some of the biggest draft busts were workout warriors at the Combine. Anyone remember Mike Mammula, the defensive end out of BC? He vaulted himself into the top ten with a monster performance at the Combine, when, realistically, he would likely have been better off as a late first or second round pick - expectations would have been different, and possibly his career as a result.

I'm not saying that they shouldn't have the attendees workout. To the contrary, I believe it allows a team to determine the dedication of the player, but I think much too much stock is given to the numbers that come out of these workouts. And some team is going to make someone a much higher pick in the draft than he deserves because of it.

Sox it to 'Em...

Evidently the Orioles are the tonic for what ails 'em. The Red Sox, coming off a weak start to the season got strong starts from Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Tim Wakefield after starting the season 2-6 - and one solid start from Josh Beckett (who continues to struggle with the big inning), the Sox have fought their way back to a 7-6 record. Coincidently, the Salem Red Sox (A ball), met with Frederick Keys for a three game set on Friday, and swept the Orioles A-level affiliate.

A few quick observations -

Lester reportedly looked like the pitcher that was the de facto ace of the staff last season. Hopefully the first two games was just Lester finding his footing in the new season - if so, then the Sox shouldn't have any issues with the starting staff moving forward.

As much as a like what Daisuke Matsuzaka potentially brings to the mound, I have to admit that he makes me nervous as the number two starter. There's something about the way he runs counts up that reminds me a little too much of Heathcliff Sclocumb. Yes, he's better than Slocumb, but his inneficiency tends to be a little nerve wracking. Masterson, on the other hand, filling in for Dice, was quite efficient in walking only two over 5 1/3 innings.

Wakefield's a monster asset. Sure, knuckleballers are the Russian-roullette revolvers of the pitching world, but Wakefield's complete game against the A's before the off-day at the end of last week gave the bullpen a much needed rest, and was the catalyst for what's happening now.

Speaking of Wake, you gotta love the way George Kottarras is calling the game when Wake is pitching. I would love to see if he could work the batting average a bit with some more starts - see if he's the Sox starting back-up of the future.

The jury's still out regarding his bat, but I like what I'm seeing of Nick Green in the field.

One final note...

The Yankees can't be happy that Chien-Ming Wang has been beaten like a cheap pinata this season. With no options, Wang would have to pass through waivers to work out his problems in the minors. What team would claim a pitcher that's 0-3 with a 34.50 ERA over six innings spanning three starts?

Sure, there's someone likely to claim him off waivers, but the Yankees aren't going to let that happen. The problem is, after his four out eight earned run start, what do the Yankees do about him?

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Irony is funny and other thoughts...

So the Dodgers look like they have finally found a solution to the soap opera that is the Manny Ramirez situation.

As every Sox fan knows, Ramirez pulled every trick in the book in order to engineer his exit from Boston because he believed he could make more money if he was out from under the Sox's onerous two option years at $20 million per. Reportedly Ramirez's agent, Scott Boras, told Man-Ram that he could potentially land a four-year $100+ million deal. It looks like he's going to get a one year $25 million deal with a player's option for a second year at $20 million.

That means, in essence, that Ramirez landed a raise of $2.5 million (once you take out Scott Boras' commission) only if Ramirez doesn't exercise his option year. If he does, then all he's done is engineer a $500,000.00 raise spread over two years, but he's managed to pay Boras $4.5 million for pretty much the same money he would have made anyway had he stayed with the Sox.

Gotta love the irony.

Over on the gridiron I've been wondering what the Pats brain-trust has planned for the off-season in regards to rebuilding. I know that what I might see as an issue, or as the most important needs are not necessarily what Bill Belichick sees as the team's greatest needs.

Biggest need -

For whatever reason, last season the pass rush was horrible. Brutal might be the best word. Had the pass rush actually existed, the Pats probably would have beaten the Jets in the overtime game, might have actually made a game of it against the Chargers, and probably would have won the game against the Colts. Part of the issue was Ty Warren playing the season with a pulled groin, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab another defensive linemen in the middle rounds in an effort to add depth to the ends. I think it's more likely that they will try to find the solution, however, with an outside linebacker in the early rounds.

Second biggest need -

Defensive back would appear to be the next biggest need on the Pats radar. I put this behind the pass rush because a solid pass rush can cover for all sorts of sins in the defensive back-field, and lord knows that the Pats didn't have a solid pass rush last season. Also, due to injury, the team was forced to play a lot of young players that really had to learn on the job, some of whom may turn into solid DB's. However, I still think this is an area that they will address through free-agency or the draft in an effort to find a starting caliber corner.

Other places -

Depth on the offensive line - last season protection was an issue for two reasons; one - Matt Cassel had to get up to game speed after playing little since high school and often, early in the season held on to the ball too long and took the sack rather than throwing the ball away. Unfortunately, this issue was compounded by the fact that half the starting offensive line was injured for half the year.

I figure the team will, like in every year since Jabar Gaffney got there, look for a third receiver to slot in behind Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

The team will also draft or sign a free agent quarterback to compete with Matt Guttierez for the third string QB slot once the team trades Matt Cassel.

Other Patriot thoughts -

No, the team will not bring in Marvin Harrison.

I think Laurence Maroney is running on borrowed time.

I'd like to see the team bring Heath Evans back.

I'm curious to see if Larry Izzo is hit with a suspension for his admission to using performance enhancers provided by Greg Anderson.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Rosevelt Colvin back in camp with the Patriots. I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't either - but I can see him being given the opportunity to make the team as a bench player.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Draft gurus

Tomorrow is the NFL draft.

The pundits have been out in force, analyzing, dissecting, breaking down the top players - trying to find the sleepers, identify the busts, and anoint the next superstars without a single player having seen a single down in the NFL except on their television sets on Sunday.

It passed the stage of interesting a long time ago and now just resides in the land of tedium. Analysis for analysis' sake. Everyone has a different opinion, everyone identifies a different place where a team has needs, and everyone seems to feel they have the right remedy for what ails a given team.

Are there draft picks that are gimmes? Yeah, and there are those that are so glaringly wrong (Ted Ginn, Jr., anyone?) that one wonders how the GM and the scouts of those teams still have jobs going into the second day of the draft, and there are reaches. But let's face it, if these so-called draft experts were so good at what they do, they would be drawing their paychecks from the NFL and not some media outlet.

Mel Kiper, I'm looking at you.

I'm not saying what he does is easy. He compiles an immense amount of information and seems to be able to recall it without referencing notes. What I am saying is that he does not seem capable of doing the most difficult part of his job - which is to bring a certain gut instinct to his analysis...to separate certain facts and make accurate projections based on scheme and mental make-up.

For those of you who think otherwise, here is a list of some of Kiper's most memorable moments ganked from his bio on Wikipedia...

  • Kiper also criticized the Colts selection of Marshall Faulk at #2 in 1994, saying that the team should have taken either Shuler or Trent Dilfer.[5] Kiper attacked the selection of Faulk, stating, "That's why the Colts keep picking No. 2 every year." [6] Faulk became the 1994 Offensive Rookie of the Year.[7] After a long career as one of the elite running backs NFL history, the general consensus is that Faulk will someday be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
  • Kiper projected Notre Dame quarterback Rick Mirer as the 30th pick; he was selected second overall by the Seattle Seahawks.[9] Though he showed some early promise, Mirer failed to develop and was finally benched during his fourth season. He spent the remaining eight years of his career with six different teams as a journeyman backup. [10]
  • In 1999, Kiper said that Oregon quarterback Akili Smith would be a great NFL player and would finally provide the Cincinnati Bengals with the passer they'd lacked since Boomer Esiason. Smith was selected ahead of Daunte Culpepper, Torry Holt, Edgerrin James, Champ Bailey, and Jevon Kearse, but he spent less than four abysmal seasons in Cincinnati, starting only 17 games. He has since struggled in several brief stops in the NFL, NFL Europe, and the CFL. It's notable that Kiper rated Smith higher than Donovan McNabb and Culpepper, despite the facts that Smith only had 11 starts at the college level and had performed poorly on the Wonderlic aptitude tests administered at the NFL Combine, both of which are traditionally seen as important indicators of a quarterback's readiness for the NFL. Smith's career was marred by inconsistency and failure to grasp the complexities of the Bengals' playbook, issues which appear to have been foreshadowed by his lack of experience and low scores.
  • One of Kiper's most well known mistakes was when he stated that USC wide receiver Mike Williams would be the best player in his 2005 draft class, despite not having played football in over a year after being ruled ineligible by the NCAA. When ESPN analyst Merril Hoge disagreed, Kiper uttered the now infamous line, "I'll see you at his Hall of Fame induction." Williams has been a remarkable disappointment, playing very little and showing no signs of improvement with either of the two teams he's played for. As of October 31, 2007 he is already out of football after being waived by the Oakland Raiders. Further adding to the embarrassment for Kiper (and the Detroit Lions, who selected him 10th overall) is the fact that the next three players selected after Williams all became Pro-Bowlers within 2 years - the Cowboys' DeMarcus Ware, the Chargers' Shawn Merriman, and Saints offensive tackle Jamaal Brown.
  • In the 1995 Draft, Kiper proclaimed UCLA wide receiver JJ Stokes a "sure-thing" who was destined to be a future All-Pro. On draft day, Kiper lambasted several teams, including the New York Jets, for passing on Stokes until he was selected 10th overall by the San Francisco 49ers. Stokes spent an undistinguished 8 years in San Francisco in the shadows of Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens, never making a single Pro Bowl or even surpassing 770 yards receiving. After the draft, the Jets signed Hofstra wide receiver Wayne Chrebet as an undrafted free agent. Chrebet became one of the Jets most popular players and surpassed Stokes in every major statistical category.
  • In the same 1995 Draft, Kiper had rated BYU Quarterback John Walsh as a first round pick. Walsh declared for the draft after his Junior season and had an abysmal NFL combine where he ran a 5.3 forty yard dash and displayed a weak arm in workouts. Nonetheless, Kiper still rated Walsh as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick on the day of the draft and said he would be a perfect fit for a "West Coast Offense" team like the San Francisco 49ers because of his accuracy on short passes. Walsh slid all the way to the 7th round where he was finally taken by the Cincinnati Bengals. He never appeared in a single game for the quarterback needy Bengals and was out of football less than a year later.
  • One example of Kiper getting a player correct in the 1995 draft was when he asserted that Notre Dame defensive back Bobby Taylor, a college free safety, would make an excellent cornerback in the NFL because of his ability to match up with larger wide receivers. Kiper had Taylor rated as one of his top 10 prospects in the draft, and though Taylor wasn't drafted until the 2nd round by the Philadelphia Eagles, he went on to have a long and distinguished career just as Kiper said he would.
  • In 1998 Kiper said that Washington State Quarterback Ryan Leaf's "attitude" (which had rubbed teammates and coaches the wrong way in college) would be an asset in the NFL and give him a mental advantage over Peyton Manning. Kiper also said that Leaf had the better natural physical tools and would be a great quarterback, though he still rated Manning as the more polished and better overall prospect. Leaf was chosen second overall by the San Diego Chargers immediately after Manning. Leaf's career soon imploded, largely because of a confrontational attitude and poor practice habits that alienated teammates, coaches, and fans. He is now regarded as not only the worst bust in NFL draft history, but also possibly the biggest bust in all of professional sports.[12] His story is viewed as a cautionary tale of what can happen when a team attempts to build around a player with raw talent but questionable attitude.
By no means is Kiper alone in this, however, when so glaringly wrong on picks like Leaf, Akili Smith, and Ware...all of whom had serious detractors at the time of their respective drafts, one has to wonder how he retains his draft guru title with ESPN.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

What's in an MVP...or draft position for that matter?

Yesterday Alex Rodriguez won the American League MVP award, keeping a 20+ year streak intact of AL MVP's that failed to reach the World Series. It is the third MVP that he has won. There are a couple of questions that this presents -

What does the MVP really mean?

Is it just an award to acknowledge the player who statistically has the best year, or is it meant to recognize the player who has the greatest impact on his team?

What does that key word, "valuable," really mean?

I will admit that the Yankees don't make the post-season this year without A-Rod, but do the Red Sox without Lowell? Without Ortiz? Just one of those guys out of the lineup for significant time and the Sox don't make the post-season.

Which, in turn, begs the following question - 20 years of AL MVP's failing to make the World Series, then isn't World Series MVP the far more telling award? After all, it is given to the player who plays the best and has the most impact on the championship team during crunch time. I mean, think about it, this year's winner hit 30 of his 54 home runs before the All-Star Break - 56 percent of his dingers. Through the first 63 games he was on pace to hit 64 homers.

To put the cherry on the whipped cream, A-Rod won the award playing on a last-place club in Texas. What was his value there?

I think major league baseball has to have less vague specs for the voters in regards to this award. I do not begrudge A-Rod the award because, as I said, I don't think the Yankees make the post-season this year without him, however, I don't think he deserved to have such a landslide sort of vote leaning his way. There were several other players that were just as valuable to their teams.

However, I would still take the World Series MVP on my team over the AL MVP for one reason and one reason only - at this point it seems that the AL MVP pretty much means that my team didn't even make the Series.

Feeling drafty...

An interesting idea has creeped into the scribblings of many sports writers. Many like Peter King have started to note that drafting a franchise running back in the top ten is a waste of money. There is a history that they point at that includes Curtis Martin (3rd round), Terrell Davis (6th round), Willie Parker (undrafted), performing at as high a level, and often higher levels than a number of highly picked running backs such as Ron Dayne, Curtis Enis, Ki-Jana Carter, and Lawrence Phillips.

The idea is that a team looking for a running back, but doesn't want to spend big bucks on an unproven rookie, would be better served finding a gem in the late rounds rather than spending on an established back closing in on his 30th birthday (Texans and Ahman Green, we're looking at you).

It's not a bad idea, however, why wouldn't this be just as prudent to apply this same reasoning to quarterbacks? Some of the best in the business, per generation, have been missed by a number of teams - Johnny Unitas was cut by Pittsburgh, Joe Montana was a second rounder out of Notre Dame as was Brett Favre, Tom Brady came out of the sixth round, and Steve Young was a pick in the supplemental draft. A number of other solid starters have come from the late rounds - Bernie Kosar was a pick in the supplemental draft, currently Derek Anderson is looking solid, as is John Kitna. Jake Delhomme was undrafted as was Kurt Warner. Steve Grogan was drafted in the fifth round.

Isn't the evidence of first round quarterback busts just as damning as it is for running backs? Rick Mirer, Michael Vick, Ryan Leaf, Jeff George, Akili Smith...the list goes on.

Friday, June 08, 2007

A well needed win...

I stand by my earlier statements regarding Curt Schilling and the degradation of skills. That said, it was a hell of a showing yesterday when the Sox needed it. While the story the press is reflecting on is the no hitter that got away in the ninth inning, it really should be wrapped around the fact that Schilling only threw 100 pitches to come away with the complete game one-hit win.

Schilling, who has historically gone deep in counts, walked no one and faced 29 total batters.

Why is all this so important? Because over the last couple of years when Schilling has been allowed to throw more pitches in a game, his following start to two starts have suffered. It was particularly noticeable last year after a 130+ pitch outing against Cleveland and Schilling just looked old for his next two starts.

One other observation: Is it just me, or have Schilling's trouble spots come up whenever he has shaken Varitek off?

Good job boys...now let's get number nine for Beckett. Number nine, number nine, number nine...

From bad to worse...
I'm trying to figure out if the Feds getting involved in the Vick dogfighting case bodes worse for Vick or Gerald Poindexter, the Surry County prosecutor who appeared to be dragging his feet on this case.

Poindexter upon being ousted by the Feds, made the following statement as part of the AP article:

"There's a larger thing here, and it has nothing to do with any breach of protocol," Poindexter said, still trying to rationalize where the federal government fits in. "There's something awful going on here. I don't know if it's racial. I don't know what it is."

Vick and Poindexter are black.

Of course, here are some of the issues that have taken place under Poindexter's watch:
  1. Shortly after the May 25th raid, the state animal control rep who was with the police on the raid noted that there was enough evidence to begin issuing indictments/warrants for arrests, particularly in light of the fact that neighbors could place Vick at the house in spite of his assertions that he was never there. Those warrants still have not arrived.
  2. Multiple witnesses have come forward over the last two weeks connecting Vick with dogfighting. Still no warrant.
  3. During Poindexter's watch, the Vick home where this all took place was broken into. Publicly Poindexter seemed unconcerned, stating that he believed that whoever broke into the home was probably just after furnishings...never mind the fact that it was a crime scene, and it could easily have been someone going there to destroy evidence.
  4. At least one witness noted that a number of dead dogs are buried on the property. Somehow Poindexter's office screwed up that warrant, and had to wait for that one to expire while a new warrant was in the works.
  5. As a breeder of these dogs, and an allegedly individual involved in fighting the dogs in both North Carolina and Virginia, the crime crosses state boundaries and becomes a federal offense.
All of this doesn't even account for the fact that the Vick family appears to get special treatment on the Virginia peninsula due to their celebrity status as athletes. Really, would Marcus Vick have gotten the slap on the wrist he had if he wasn't either of the following; A) The starting QB at Virginia Tech B) Michael Vick's little brother C) A black sports star in a predominantly black area?

Do I think there might be some racism at play? Maybe, maybe not. If there is, I don't think it's on the part of the Feds. Have the Feds lost confidence in Poindexter's ability to prosecute this case because of other issues? I'm guessing that's a yes.

Shoring up the minors...
According to the Herald, this is our newest first draft pick...
The Sox took University of Washington left-hander Nick Hagadone with their first selection, the 55th overall pick and the 25th pick of the compensation round. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound junior averaged 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings while posting a 6-1 record, 11 saves and a 2.77 ERA in 25 games this season.
All in all, that doesn't look too bad for a team whose first pick didn't come until the second round. Especially considering the kid is a lefty.

Coming Soon...Post 200!

Thursday, May 03, 2007

Rounding up those stray little thoughts like the sheep they are...

The NYpon Ham fighters...
Okay, so I stretched a little for a pun here, but right now the Yankees seem to be feeling a little hamstrung. Over the course of the first month of the season the Bronx Bombers have lost four pitchers including the latest casualty, pitching prospect and expected phenom, Phil Hughes to hamstring problems. Since spring training under the stretching program instituted by the Yankees new strength and conditioning guy Bobby Abreu, Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Mike Mussina each went down with ailments that could potentially be tied to conditioning and stretching issues. That's four starting pitchers and three starters for those keeping score at home.

According to the NY Daily News - "After Mussina strained his hamstring on April 11, Cashman threw his full support behind [trainers] Miller and Cavalea, saying, 'None of these injuries have anything to do with this new program.'" Yesterday Miller was shown the door, possibly in a move by Cashman to avoid that same door himself. Someone had to take the fall for the Yankees' slow start, and it appeared that the trainer was ripe for the kicking.

If the Yanks have a May like their April, rest assured there will be other heads that roll before the end of the month.

Not exactly waiting for Godot...
Josh Beckett has accomplished something in a Red Sox uni that not even Pedro did...six wins in six decisions to start the season. Only a handful pitchers in Sox uniforms equaled or topped that feat - Roger Clemens and the ole' southpaw, George Herman Ruth are among them. Not bad company to be in.

The early returns seem to be that Beckett is on course, as long as he stays healthy, for a 20-win season, even if he stumbles a bit, and a strong candidate for the Cy Young. Right now he has 6 wins (1st, which could put him on pace for close to 14 by the All-Star break), is 9th in innings pitched (39.2), 8th in strike outs (35), 9th in ERA (2.72), 8th in Walks/Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) with 1.06, and opposing batters are hitting only .219 against him (10th).

If he maintains these averages, he has every chance of finishing in the top five in every important pitching category. The big question is, can he do it? As a Sox fan, I sure hope so.

What is truly amazing is that in almost every one of the categories I mentioned, there is another Sox pitcher in front of him - Schilling in innings pitched, Wakefield in ERA and opponent's batting average, and Matsuzaka in strike outs.

I think Sox fans would be hard pressed to find a time in the team's history when four members of their pitching staff were in the top ten of those statistical categories over the course of any one month period of time in any season. Hitting? Sure. But pitching...

Feeling a little drafty...
As readers may have noticed, I'm not much on covering the draft, but I am going to say a couple of things about this past year's draft -

Feeling Patriot-ic - I think some good and some...well let's just say that the jury is out as to what happened here. I honestly don't know enough about Brandon Merriweather to claim he's a bad guy. Yes he was involved in a gun incident, no, the police found nothing illegal in his involvement - the gun was licensed and it was determined that he was indeed acting in self-defense. I'm not happy about it, but to borrow a Belichick-ism - it is what it is...and what it is appears to be an isolated incident.

Then there was the brawl where he was caught on film stomping on a Florida International player's head. I understand that football is a game of great emotion - when in high school I had to be restrained from going after another team's center, but I was 15 at the time, not 21.

Are these red flags? Yes. But people have been comparing this to picking Pacman Jones which I believe is...shall we say a touch of hyperbole. Jones had been arrested for assault in a bar incident in West Virginia and had a history of trouble in high school including suspensions from both school and team, I have not heard the same in the case of Merriweather. Merriweather could easily be heading in that direction, or it's quite possible that there will be nothing else along these lines. He has shown, from what I've read, little indication of following the troubled paths of Jones, Chris Henry, Tank Johnson, or even Washington safety Sean Taylor.

Trading places - The Pats made one pick on day one of what was considered a weak draft class, trading picks for extra places in next year's stronger draft. One of the big coups for the Pats was getting San Fran's number one next year. While the Niners figure to be better next year, I'm guessing it will still give the Pats a pick in the teens.

Rolling stones gather no Moss - There are a lot of positives to the Moss deal. The Pats picked up a talented player for virtually little to no real cost to themselves. The controversial wide receiver automatically makes the offense better. Currently, he's saying all the right things - even lauding Troy Brown as the best receiver to come out of Marshall. I still don't like the deal.

I don't feel they needed him to put them over the top at this point. I have no respect for a player that, "plays when I feel like it," and feel that it's the equivalent of the Red Sox going out and getting Derek Jeter (or in the past, Don Mattingly or Catfish Hunter) to play for them - it just wouldn't feel right.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Clearing out the recesses of the mind...

And those are lonely places. Lonely, lonely places...

Dissecting labs...
According to the French newspaper L'Equipe, Floyd Landis' B-sample has tested positive for epi-testosterone. This of course is the same paper that has led witch-hunt after witch-hunt against American riders and the same French lab that has repeatedly bungled the testing of Tour-de-France riders.

Landis has of course responded, making some very valid points about the potential invalidity of the test results. I am not defending him, nor any other American rider, as I honestly don't know what to believe. I do have to say that something smells very wrong about the process here and the term "railroaded" pops into my head.

Pushing the panic button...
Brian Cashman must really feel Steinbrenner breathing down his neck at the moment. The Yankees are off to a great start offensively, but have been horrible on the mound (I think the longest any starter has gone has been 6 innings). Cashman will be promoting top pitching prospect Phil Hughes to start Thursday's game. The Yankees GM has been loath to do this in light of the fates of other top prospects rushed to the bigs such as Kerry Wood.

Dropping three straight to arch-rival Boston and then a fourth to Tampa Bay must really be eating at The Boss...and Cashman I'm sure knows it, otherwise Hughes doesn't go any higher than AAA before September of this year. The move smacks of desperation which is kind of funny when you think about it - do the conversion to a football season. This would be like management panicking somewhere around the early fourth quarter of the second game of the season...say with 13:45 left on the clock in the 4th quarter.

Early returns looking good...
My other sports gig, Bitterfans, asked its writers to submit predictions for this year's baseball season season, and right now I'm looking good in my picks for each division winner (hey, I know it's early and anything can happen between now and October). Here they are along with current standings -

AL East - Boston 1st
AL Cent - Minnesota T-1st (with Detroit)
AL West - Oakland - 1st

NL East - New York - 1st
NL Cent - Milwaukee - 1st
NL West - Los Angeles - 1st

I fully expect to be wrong on a couple of these...but hey, I need to give credit where credit is due while the standings still fall in favor of my predictions. Yay me.

Bright lights, big city...
This weekend marks the biggest holiday in football fandom for anyone whose team is a perennial bottom feeder...Saturday is Draft Day. It is the day that is meant to give hope for the turnaround, give belief that what was once bad can become good in a hurry. Fans gather in Radio City Music Hall in Manhattan to see who the future of their franchise is going to be.

The draft was created and designed on the premise that it favored the worst teams, giving them first shot at the top talent in the draft. It hasn't exactly worked that way - ask a fan of the Arizona Cardinals, a perennial bottom feeder. Of course that is no fault of the draft. The draft itself is sound as long as the organization picking has all of its front office and coaches on the same page.

To wit; the Cardinals, Lions, and Browns are consistently picking in the top ten. Theoretically those teams should be amassing an immense amount of talent. The Colts, Patriots, and Chargers typically are picking in the late 20's of the first round, amassing what should be lesser talent.

All teams work with the same salary constraints - and in spite of a reputation as being "cheap" the Patriots usually spend to the cap as does most of the league. What has been the difference between the bottom feeders and the cream of the crop? Management, talent evaluation, and coaching.

Bad luck does play a part (injuries, sudden retirements, etc), but even that can be overcome; the Patriots won a Super Bowl with a defensive backfield so decimated that one corner was a street free-agent, a safety was a career corner, the other safety a career linebacker, and the nickel-back was a career wide-receiver; the Philadelphia Eagles made it past the NFC Championship, getting that monkey off their back, sans the wide receiver who was supposed to be the missing piece in the previous seasons.

To put it a different way - If I told a Colts fan that Matt Millen was going to be their general manager, the Colts fan would probably go all Oedipus and claw his eyes out before killing himself. If I told a Pats fan that Dan Snyder was buying the team from Bob Kraft...let's just say what they would do would make the Boston Tea Party look tame by comparison.

For some reason it's like playing kick-ball when you're little, but the kid picked for team captain somehow finds a way to always pick the kid that everyone else would pick last. That's what it has come to for those bottom-end teams.

Management for the successful teams have set rules and prices and often will part with a highly talented player who thinks they are worth more than the team has budgeted for the position. The teams at the bottom? They're the ones who pay the big bucks thinking that the free-agent is the missing piece. Ask Redskins fans how well that has worked out, or Raiders fans.

The problem isn't the system...the problem is human, and the system wasn't made to account for human error.

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Opening Day Aftermath

A couple of brief thoughts regarding yesterday's exercise in futility at Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City.

A. Spring training is over, time to wake up guys, the season is here.

B. One game behind and only 161 left...

C. Schil - You can't spend spring training clamouring for a new contract and then cough up five earned runs in four innings while being out dueled by the immortal Gil Meche and expect to have credibility with Sox fans. We love you for what you did a couple of years ago, but don't negotiate your contracts in the press - it has a way of biting you in your ass.

D. This was one of the Sox uglier opening days...hopefully Josh Beckett will have better luck tomorrow.

E. Is that six losses in a row now to the Royals?

Didn't watch a single minute of this year's March Madness and found I didn't miss it at all.

With the NFL Draft practically upon us there has been a lot of recent speculation about what this team will do and what that team will do. The draftniks have said they believe with their two first round picks the Patriots will...

Draft a safety and lineman

A linebacker and a corner

Trade lower and get more picks while drafting a linebacker

Get a wide receiver and linebacker

A running back and safety

or any number of different combinations of the above. It really covers a lot of possible options, but I will be the first to say that I have looked at Patriots needs in the past, compared it with Belichick's draft history in those years and I think it's safe to say that I have no frakkin' clue what the Patriots will do.

Sure, they could use more youth at linebacker and safety, they could use another running back, and good corners are always hard to find. However, they seem to have addressed all the major concerns in free-agency this year, so don't be surprised if they go after the best available player that fits their system, rather than for high-need.