Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Dirty Sanchez

Okay, so maybe I shouldn't have gone there, but I want to address the soaring stock of USC's Mark Sanchez...

A lot of teams seem to be falling over themselves for this kid since the Combine.

Yes, he says the right things, and is evidently very personable, but the odds are against him as a successful starting quarterback in the NFL.

His supporters will point out that he started for USC - a pro-style offense - that he started at USC while Matt Cassel did not, that he lost only one game in his only full season as a starter. But that's really the problem - he's had only one full season. That's been a real trap for teams - scouts get one year looking at a guy who might put up great numbers against mediocre competition. I will come back to Cassel.

Consider - Michael Vick started for two seasons in college and never had a completion percentage as high as 59 percent. That's translated to a completion percentage below 54 in the NFL.

Akili Smith had only one full season in college as a starter and the Bengals made him a number one pick back in 1999. He was 3-14 in the NFL and out of the league in four seasons.

There's actually a long list of college short timers that went high and ended up NFL busts. The lack of information works to a player's favor and against the teams.

Now, onto the Cassel conundrum. People will point out that Cassel, without a college start, is a reason that Sanchez can be successful. While people will argue that, it's not an accurate comparison. Cassel, like quarterbacks 25 years ago, went through the sort of apprenticeship process that was common around the league. Cassel spent four preseasons preparing, three full seasons of practice reps with a professional team, lining up against professional defenses, and even appeared in 14 regular season professional games, racking up 22 completions on 39 attempts before getting his season as a starter. It's not the same as getting a season against college competition.

I'm not saying that Sanchez can't or won't be successful in the NFL. What I am saying is that if he comes into a team and is expected to be the starter when he gets there, then it's highly unlikely that he'll have a good career. If he can go someplace and sit a couple of years and learn the pro-game, he'll be much more likely to be successful.

Given the way quarterbacks are just thrown to the wolves, I have to say I have my doubts.

2 comments:

Chris Stone said...

It is weird. Just from watching those clips I'd go for Stafford over Sanchez. even though that's way too much money for either! Not sure what the folks hyping Sanchez are seeing.

Lisa K. said...

He'll be the next Brett Favre in NY!!!!