Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Mid-week observations

Getting tougher in the Bronx

The Yankees have been great since the All-Star break, climbing to as close as four back of the AL-East leading Red Sox. They have cut what was once a 15-game deficit to what is now six games and are in the thick of the wild-card race, climbing from as many as ten games under .500 to 70-56.

In spite of all that, I still think the Yankees are done.

This is why -

The Bommahs are 22-25 against the East. A winning percentage of 0.468.

Against the West they are 12-15 - 0.444.

However they have owned the teams in the Central. Against the Central they are a gaudy 26-8. That's a winning percentage of 0.765.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, they only have seven games remaining against the Central. At their current paces against each division, that means we're looking at five wins against the Central and two against the West. The Yanks have 25 games remaining against the East which translates to maybe 12 wins.

Realistically, I think the Yankees finish with a respectable total of 87...maybe 89 wins. The Red Sox could go .500 in their remaining games and still finish with 94 wins.

The Yanks could still make the wild-card, but I'm guessing Seattle gets it.

Wake-up call

The Red Sox have two fifteen game winners and one fourteen game winner. With approximately seven starts remaining, Tim Wakefield has a legitimate shot at 20 wins. I think 18 is more realistic, but Wake's year could give the Sox a staff with three starters with at least 17 wins.

When is the last time that happened?

Welcome to the Bigs, rook

I've said this before and I will say it again. Right now the Red Sox have to have three of the leading candidates for Rookie of the Year in Dustin Pedroia, Hideki Okajima, and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Unfortunately for Oki, I think Pedroia is more likely to get the award.

Don't get me wrong, Pedroia has had a deserving season, but I don't think the Sox are in first without Okajima. He has been the rock in the bullpen, and the most consistent of the three. I just don't think middle relievers ever get the credit they deserve.

This ain't gonna be The Longest Yard

Vick couldn't beat the feds and now he's facing a local DA in Virginia who is going to use the Feds evidence and Vick's own confession as a cudgel in trying to convict him on animal cruelty charges. If my understanding is correct - each charge carries with it a maximum five-year sentence that can be ordered to be served consecutively rather than concurrently.

If Surry County prosecutor Gerald Poindexter convicts Vick of all charges, the soon to be former Falcons quarterback could be looking at serving up to an additional 40 years in a Virginia penitentiary after he gets out of federal prison.

What do you suppose the over-under is on when his brother finally screws up enough that he's out of the league as well?


Dave said...

I'm almost positive the last time the Sox had three 17+ game winners on the same staff was in 1975. Wise, Tiant and Lee all had 17 or more.

Kevin Smith said...

Over 30 years? Yeah, that sounds about right to me. Thanks.

Dave said...

No problem. I always thought the 2004 season was impressive; all five starters had double-digit win totals.

sugarshane024 said...

I see one of the two Central teams (Indians or Tigers) grabbing that Wild Card. I agree that I believe the Yankees are done, but everyone seems to like to M's getting the WC. I think that Cleveland and Detroit are just too strong. Whoever doesn't win that division will get the WC.