Mid-season thoughts

Before I get started on the Red Sox and other people in the American League East, I want to touch on 30-year old pitcher Shawn Chacon.

There have been a few comparisons of Chacon's attack on Ed Wade to the Latrell Sprewell/P.J. Carlesimo incident a little over a decade ago. There's a big difference here.

Sprewell continued to have a career after he tried to choke his coach because Sprew was a front-line starter. Chacon, on the other hand...well, take a look...

When his career numbers are looked at, Chacon, at best, is a team's number five starter. In eight seasons, Chacon is 45-61 with a 4.99 ERA (only by the grace of three seasons with an ERA below 5.00). He has only once won more than ten games (11 in 2003), and has had a winning record in only three seasons (11-8, 7-6, 5-4 respectively). This season he was carrying the fourth best ERA of his career at the time of his release with a rousing 5.04 to go with a 2-3 record. Three times his ERA was over 5.70 (5.73, 6.36, 7.11).

All but 14 games of that (a mid-season move to the Yankees) has been in Major League Baseball's hitters' B-League.

With numbers like that, Chacon reacted to a bullpen demotion by trying to choke his GM. With numbers like that and a reaction like that, he'll be lucky to get a gig with another major league team. On most teams those numbers are number 4/5 starter sort of numbers. A front-end guy can afford to be an asshole - Schilling, Clemens, what have you. Those guys can be critical of the front office, because the team needs them. The guy with the career .425 winning percentage...he needs to be the good soldier.

My guess, if Chacon wants to keep getting paid to play baseball, it's going to have to be for an independent league team...either that or he's going to have to get used to saying, "would you like fries with that?"

On Pace...

The Red Sox are one game off of last year's pace with a 49-32 record half-way through the season. Last year they had 50 wins after 81 games.

The big difference - this year's AL East is more the beast that it once was.

This time last year the Sox were dominating the East, 10.5 games ahead of the second place Yankees and Blue Jays, 14.5 ahead of Baltimore and 17 ahead of Tampa Bay. That's an average lead of a little over 13 games over the rest of the AL East.

This season, with 49 wins, the average lead over the rest of an improved AL East is only a little over 5.8 games - half a game over second place Tampa, 5.5 over a resurgent Yankees team, 7 over Baltimore, and 10.5 over the best last place divisional team in the majors, Toronto.

A few basic observations - The Sox are putting up comparable numbers against better competition, a testament to the progression and development of the team's youth movement...particularly in relation to the pitchers. It's been a big part of the difference between the success of the Sox and the arch-rival Yankees.

A few thoughts about the state of the East before I get into the Yanks.

Overall, the Blue Jays, who loaded up before last season, appear to be right where they were this time last year, and I don't see that changing.

the Orioles have made some improvements from last year to this, but are still looking to future years and are likely to begin making moves to bring highly regarded prospects back in exchange for established major league talent. Expect at least one, if not a couple of the players to be traded between now and the deadline.

The Rays appear to be the biggest threat to the Sox at the moment, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them hanging around at the end of the season, vying for a playoff spot. However, I think they're likely to fade in the dog-days of August like many developing teams. Next season, however, they could be truly dangerous.

Which brings me to the Yankees...

The Yankees are making a push, I just don't buy that they have the horses to keep it going. Mike Mussina has been better this year than he has been for a while, and Chien-Ming Wang and Pettitte have been solid, but none have been an ace.

Mussina has been the best of the three with a 3.93 ERA, with Wang and Pettitte coming in at 4.07 and 4.04 respectively. Not exactly dominant.

And then there's the 4/5 positions. The Yankees briefly got some solid starts from Darrell Rasner, but, as I previously predicted, Rasner has come back to Earth. After starting his stint in the rotation 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA through those first four starts, Rasner has gone 1-4 and seen his ERA rise to 4.50. Three times over that span Rasner has given up at least four earned and twice has given up at least six.

Given that Rasner has never, on the Major League level, pitched more than 24.2 innings before this year (52 already), it's likely that he's just going to deteriorate as the season drags on.

Then there's Joba Chamberlain. Chamberlain might, one day, become an ace. He might not. But here's another one that will suffer the more innings he puts up. There will be issues for him as teams see him again, not to mention, as the innings he's not accustomed to pitching rack up.

The Yankees being the Yankees will make it interesting for a while, but in the end, they're going to come up short on pitching, and probably third in the East.

Wrapping up the weekend...

The Red Sox finished up an absolutely brutal road trip in brutal fashion. After a solid showing, taking three of four from the Athletics, the Sox got their hats handed to them by the Blue Jays, getting swept in a three game set at the Rogers Center in Toronto.

In dropping their first three of the 2008 season to Toronto, there was little good that the Sox did. In three games the Sox had nearly half as many errors as they did runs - four errors and nine total runs. The team batted .220 north of the border with the heart of the line-up - David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and Mike Lowell - batting a combined .206 (7 for 34) with two RBI's. Pair that against the fact that the Jays scored 23 runs, with 22 earned, it becomes obvious that this was a whole team breakdown - the Sox sputtered on offense, defense, and with their pitching.

Hopefully it's just a case of jet lag from covering Japan, Los Angeles, Oakland, and Toronto in the last two weeks.

Hair today...

The NFL owners mulled over a proposition regarding penalties for hair that obscures the nameplates of player jerseys. I don't care one way or the other that a player wants to grow his hair long - he just needs to understand that if the locks are long, then they're fair game for tackling.

But beyond that, there has been rumbling from certain quarters that this idea might be racially motivated.

The irony, of course, is that the idea came from Chiefs coach Herm Edwards, an African-American.

The moral - before people begin yelling that this is just another case of the white aristocracy trying to keep the black man in his place, maybe, just maybe they should check the actual source.

I'm not saying that things don't happen for racist reasons. Things like that happen all the time, and vigilance is required. All I'm saying is that people need to make sure they know where an idea comes from before they begin claiming that it's another case of white ownership trying to control the black players.

Three down and Celtic Pride...

Celtic pride...there's a term I haven't heard in a while. But the team has earned it.

Maybe at not time more so than this weekend.

On Friday night the Celtics added to team legend by accomplishing the greatest single-season turn-around in the history of the NBA when they won their 61st game of the season. With six games still left on the schedule, the team has already won 37 more games than they did last season.

On Friday they did it without their new Big Three, without Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, or Kevin Garnett. What's more, it was never close.

The names leading the charge? A veritable "Who's that" of the NBA. With names like James Posey (19 points), Leon Powe (22 points, 9 rebounds, 2 steals), and Eddie House (16 points, 2 rebounds, 1 steal), the casual basketball fan is going to look at this line-up and wonder how this team destroyed a Charlotte team that features Emeka Okafor and Earl Boykins by 23 points.

And going into the season the weakness of this team, said analysts, would be the bench.

So much for conventional wisdom.

Land of the Rising Sun

It is a great public relations gimmick.

Send at least one of the league's premier teams from the previous season overseas, or to another country on the same continent to help cultivate the game in a country that's already baseball crazy.

It will be the fifth time since 1999 that Major League Baseball will start its season on foreign soil. In 1999 it was the the 1998 pennant winning Padres taking on the Rockies in Monterrey, Mexico. In 2000 the 1999 NL wild-card Mets, winners of 97 games, played the bottom of the NL Central barrel Cubs in Tokyo. Four years later, the capital of Nippon hosted the AL Champion Yankees against the bottom feeding Devil Rays. In 2001 it was the bottom scrubbing Rangers playing a Blue Jays team that missed the AL East title by a mere four and a half games.

This season it's the World Champion Red Sox opening against an Athletics squad that finished only a game out of last place in the AL West and 20 wins behind the Red Sox. Not exactly a marquee match-up.

But this is less about the match-up than about the impact of opening in a different country.

What does it really mean? Is it difficult for the team's involved to recover from the requisite travel? Or is the impact dependent on the team make-up, the manager, and any number of other factors? The numbers are less than telling.

The Yankees in 2004 got off to a horrible start, struggling in April and May, but recovered to win 101 games.

On the other hand are the 1999 Padres, just a season earlier with 98 wins and an appearance in the World Series, dropped to fourth place and 74 wins when starting the season in Mexico. Their opponents, the Rockies dropped from 77 to 72 wins.

In 2000 the Cubs slipped by two games from 67 to 65 wins, while the Mets still qualified for the wild card with 94 wins, down from their 1999 total of 97 after taking their first at-bats of the season in Tokyo. That same year the Rangers and Blue Jays won 71 and 83 games respectively. The following season, kicking off the season in (I know, technically American soil) Puerto Rico, those Rangers and Jays finished 2001 with 73 and 80 games respectively. An increase for the Rangers, but a drop-off for the Jays.

In 2004 the Yankees matched their previous season's win total, while the Rays increased their win total from 63 to 70 after starting it all in Tokyo.

Eight teams, a variety of results. Nothing telling. One team broke even. Two teams increased their win total by an average of 4.5 games, and five teams slipped a combined total of 37 games. Realistically, the Padres skew that number with a 24 game drop-off. Sixty-two-and-a-half percent of the teams experienced a drop in performance reflected in their win-loss record. The average drop, not including the Padres, is 3.25 games per team.

Assuming this is actually indicative of this season's performance, there's a 62.5 percent chance that the Sox will drop to 93 wins from last season's 96-win showing. Last year that would have put the team a game behind the Yankees in the final standings, and given the Red Sox the wild card.

What any statistician will tell you is that eight teams, eight results in over a century's worth of seasons is not a sampling that is indicative of anything.

Finding new ways to lose...

Somehow, amidst all their other problems, the Yankees have found ways to squander quality starts. It seems when their hitting was working in April, their pitching fell apart, then in May, when they got the occasional quality start (I hesitate to say their pitching has turned around because most of their quality starts have come from one pitcher), the hitting falls apart.

Last night Aaron Hill of the Blue Jays stole home to tie the game at 2-2 before the Jays went on to win 3-2. Now, I understand that Pettitte is lefty, but you have to at least check the runner at third.

As the Yankees free-fall to 14.5 back along with the Devil Rays, the Jays and the Orioles have strung together a few wins to creep closer to the .500 mark. Currently those two teams are three games and two games under .500 in the win column each...the Yanks? Eight.

As recently as Sunday the Yanks were at least tied with the Sox offensively...something that could give some hope that if the pitching turned it around, that maybe there could be a legitimate run at the wild card. Since Sunday the Yankees team batting average has dropped from .276 to .270. The Sox have gone up a point to .277.

The Yankees were supposed to have the new Murderer's Row lineup...it's on what many prognosticators based their predictions of Yankee success. They haven't been bad scoring runs (258, good for fifth in the majors), but they still languish behind Detroit (289), Cleveland (276), and Boston (276) in the American League. Their 54 home runs trail Boston (55) and Toronto (62) in the AL East.

There are a number of other offensive categories in which the Yankees are trailing other teams, but the important stats still are related to pitching. Only one team in the entire AL East lags behind the Yankees in ERA (4.61)...the Devil Rays (5.55). The others ERA's, coincidentally enough, reflect in the standings - 1. Red Sox (3.62), 2. Orioles (4.13), 3. Blue Jays (4.34).

Possibly most telling of all, and most overlooked - the Yankees are dead last in the majors with only three saves. Even Tampa Bay is in double digits with saves. The only other team with fewer than ten saves is the Texas Rangers who are currently fighting it out with the Royals for the worst record in baseball (teams the Yankees are only two games ahead of in the win column).

As strange as it is to say it after a decade, I would say that the Jays and O's are worth more worry as a Sox fan than the Yankees are for remainder of this season.

Nuggets from the weekend

RIP
Patriots back up defensive end Marquise Hill died this weekend in a jet ski accident on Louisiana's Lake Pontchartrain. Hill was 24.

I am not going to wax poetic about how Hill was a supremely talented football player who was on the verge of a break-out year. He wasn't. He was a second round draft pick who was likely entering his make or break year with the Patriots. He worked hard, but in three seasons managed to play in only 13 games.

There's a chance there was a great player beneath all that hard work that would have surfaced in a system other than the one played by the Patriots, that sort of thing happens all the time. As it is, we'll never know.

Unfortunately, the young defensive end is now a cautionary tale as he and his friend went jet skiing sans life-jackets and Hill ended up paying a terrible price.

Hill, a native of New Orleans, according to reports had dedicated much of his free-time to the rebuilding efforts of the hurricane ravaged city. Also according to reports, Hill's final act was to make sure that the childhood friend with whom he was on the lake, was able to grasp a nearby pylon, saving her life.

Hill's death comes in an odd NFL off-season during which Hill is the third active player under the age of 25 to meet an untimely demise. The other two were Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams who was shot on New Year's Eve and back-up running back Damien Nash who collapsed after a charity basketball game.

The longer it goes, the worse it looks...
According to an AP report that hit the wires over the weekend an individual termed as "a reliable" police informant has placed Vick at the scene of at least one dog fight laying down money on dogs. The informant claims that his own dog beat Vick's dog in a fight.

The report goes on to say that the Surry County, VA district attorney is preparing charges, but it does not note whether or not Vick will be included in those charges.

In previous reports at least one neighbor has placed Vick at the property that he claims to have never been at (in spite of owning it), and now someone is placing Vick at a dogfight. I wonder how the Falcons are enamored with their second string quarterback, because it seems a strong possibility that they're going to be using him a lot this year.

A note on the AL East...
Currently the Yankees reside 13.5 games behind the Red Sox and 7 games under .500. This has been the lead story on ESPN and a number of different sports pages. Almost none of these stories have noted that the Yankees are tied with the Devil Rays for last place in the East, nor do most note that both the Orioles and the Blue Jays are ahead of the Yanks, and both teams are beginning to play decent baseball.

The Yankees on the other hand are playing like they're in beer-league softball. They look old, worn down, and reliant on the long-ball for most of their offense.

The fact that sports writers are not writing about the Orioles or the Blue Jays is something of an injustice. Not a huge one, as both teams are battling to get back to .500, and the second place Orioles are only two games ahead of the Yankees, but that still puts them two games closer to the AL leading Red Sox, and two games closer to the wild card.

Outside of the Red Sox, the teams in the AL East have to be setting their sites on the wild card. In about one month we will be halfway through the season. If the season ended at the All-Star break, this is the ground that teams would have to make up -

Detroit Tigers: 29-21 Wild Card Leader
Seattle Mariners: 25-22, 3 Games back
Chicago W. Sox: 24-22, 4 Games back
Oakland A's: 25-25, 4 Games back
Minnesota Twins: 25-25, 4 Games back
Baltimore Orioles: 24-27, 5.5 Games back
Toronto Blue Jays:23-27, 6 Games back
New York Yanks: 21-28, 7.5 Games back

What do the teams at the top of the list have in common? Almost all have some quality starters. Not starter...starters. The teams towards the bottom of that list? The Yankees have the lowest innings pitched per start in the entire league, the Blue Jays only now got their ace back from the DL and their closer hasn't pitched an inning this year, and the Orioles closer who was so dominant last year has been pinata-like this year.

A few brief observations on the AL East...

The Sawx...
Julian Tavarez gave the Red Sox only his second quality start of the season and it came against a tough Detroit Tigers team - 7 innings pitched, one earned run. A few more of these and he might preserve his job as the fifth starter.

Hideki Okajima is on his way right now to making a serious run at the Rookie of the Year award. Yesterday he had a hold in the early game, and then saved the late game. He hasn't given up a run since his first appearance of the season.

With a ten game lead in the win column over the rest of the AL East, right now the Sox biggest enemy could be themselves. Currently the Sox have a .700 winning percentage and a 9.5 game lead over the second place Yankees. If complacency seeps into the heads of some of these guys, they set themselves on cruise control, that could be very dangerous to their large lead.

That said, the Sox have mounted their assault on the rest of the AL East with their staring outfield looking like this at the plate - Manny Ramirez (.248), Coco Crisp (.233), JD Drew (.250). What happens when Ramirez and Drew get hot?

Da Bahmahs...
The Yankees braintrust announces the signing of baseball's oldest pitcher during a game to give the team a shot in the arm. Over the last ten games they are 4-6. Wonder what would have happened without that shot in the arm.

Clemens hasn't joined the team, Joe Torre and GM Brian Cashman have assured the press that there will be no problems regarding Clemens' special treatment in the locker room, yet reliever Kyle Farnsworth has already complained publicly about the fact that Clemens won't really be part of the team, because he will just be coming in on his days to pitch.

This is a team that's not out of it yet, it is still early. But that's not the sort of thing that inspires a person to believe the team is going on a run at the Sox anytime soon.

On top of that, the Yankees have a tough enough stretch over the next ten days that they could feasibly be 14 games back by June 1 if they don't get their act together.

The Devil Rays are in the details...
This team is showing some talent and determination. What they aren't showing, a quarter of the way through the season, is the pitching needed to make a legitimate run at the post-season. To be fair, neither are the Yankees, Blue Jays, or Orioles.

If ownership has the cajones and pockets to keep this team together, in another year or two, with maybe one quality veteran in the rotation, they might be a contender for the wild-card. If one or two of the young arms in the rotation gets hot, they might have an outside shot this year, although I would be surprised.

Everybody's talkin' about the bird...
And the word is disappointment. Blue Jays GM JP Ricciardi assembled a line-up that was supposed to compete with the Sox and Yanks. A quarter of the way into the season it appears that his plan was about halfway successful - At 18-22, the team is just under .500, and a half-game behind the Yanks.

To be fair to Ricciardi, his team has dealt with injuries in the same way the Yankees have - which is to say that both teams had little depth behind the people who have been injured, and that lack of depth has taken its toll on both teams.

From the bottom looking up...
Former Braves pitching guru and current manager Sam Perlazzo currently has a staff with a 4.46 ERA. Closer Chris Ray who was practically unhittable last season already has three losses and is sporting a 4.34 ERA over his 18 plus innings.

While still in the thick of the pack in the AL East (only one game behind the second place Yankees), a cellar finish is not out of the question for a team that started the season with high hopes.

Another Bitterfans Post is Up...

Covering my predictions for the AL East. Outside of the fun of trying to predict the outcome of a season (often wrong), I tend to stay away from predictions. This article for Bitterfans I went into my reasons for picking where I did - and certain acknowledgements about how I could end up wrong.

Go take a look.