The Keystone State Bowl....

BostonHerald.com - Patriots: Bull's eye on Bettis -- Steelers' ground game No. 1 target

Well, this weekend the NFL will have both the NFC and AFC Championship games at opposite ends of Pennsylvania as the Steelers host the Pats and the Iggles host the Falcons. Let me start with a quick brief on the NFC game in beautiful South Philly (I feel obligated as I spent a brief time last year working for the South Philly Review).
There's going to be a lot of pressure on the Eagles to win this one - ask Jim Kelly, he'll tell ya that no matter what the Eagles are saying, it is what they're feeling and he should know. The Falcons come into the game with one of the top rushing attacks in the league, and the Eagles run defense has been suspect at times this year.
Unfortunately for the Falcons, Vick struggles in the passing game in the best of conditions and the Falcons won't be playing in a nice, climate controlled dome. Unless the Falcons find someway to rush for 300+ yards in Sunday afternoon's contest, don't even look for this to be close, because the Eagles are going to force Vick to beat them in the air in the cold and snow.

The Main Event is happening in Pittsburgh. We're talking knock-down, drag-out, kick-'em-in-the-gut-while-they're-down, all-out rumble. This is going to be close, this is going to be violent, and man-oh-man is it gonna be pretty. I think that the Pats will edge the Steelers in this one, and not just because I'm a New England fan.

I realize that the Steelers gave the sixty-minute-men a spanking in October. I realize that the Steelers are taking the underdog roll to heart, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win, but here's why it won't happen -

1) Football coaches like to publicly say that past performance doesn't matter, that the team is focused on the upcoming game, but the reality is that coaches are obsessed with the past. They crunch numbers, they study film, they work in the past to identify the weakness of tomorrow. NFL history is full of trends and aberrations - many people like to say, if it hasn't happened at least three times, it's not a trend. Well here are some numbers to ponder -

a) No team that has carried a 15 game winning streak into the Championship Game has lost the Super Bowl, however, only 2 teams have brought a streak like that into the final divisional contest - 72 Dolphins and last year's Pats. Overall - irrelevant.

b) Bill Cowher - 1 - 4 record in AFC Championship games played in Pittsburgh.

c) Bill Belichick - 13 - 0 record since joining the Pats as head honcho when facing a QB for the second time in a season.

d) The Boys of February - Only two previous Super Bowls have been played in February. The winner of both - the Patriots (only 2x's - irrelevant).

e) Since the Halloween horror show in Heinz, the Patriots have only allowed to RB's to rush for more than 85 yards in a game.

f) The Bus - Getting the start this weekend, Bettis only has a career yards-per-rush average of 3.1, this includes the day he had against the Pats back in October when he had 4.3 yards-per-attempt. Against a Belichick coached team, that career day won't happen again.

I guess the bottom line is, I think for the most part the talent is a wash - both teams have good receivers (they play a different game, but both corps are deep and talented); both teams have good, blue-collar types in the trenches; both have goodrunning backs, linebackers and safeties. The corners are a wash, and while Roethlisberger outplayed Brady in the first meeting, that won't happen twice against a Belichick-Crennel defense and considering the Pats O-line and starting running back are healthy this time around.

My guess is that we're going to see scoring in the high teens or low twenties in this one with the Pats on top in the snow and cold on Sunday night.