Wednesday, September 03, 2008

National League redux and more NFL

Speed kills.

On a day when the Red Sox offense was sluggish, it was the lightweights that came through at the end of the game. Playing the national league base-to-base speed game is what put the team over the top.

With the game tied at four in the ninth, Alex Cora, the same Alex Cora who bats .133 in pressure situations (runners in scoring position with 2 out) hit a flare to lead off the inning. Coco Crisp followed up with a bunt single, putting runners at first and second for Jacoby Ellsbury.

Ellsbury laid down the sac bunt that everyone was expecting, and Baltimore pitcher Jim Miller fielded the ball cleanly, only to throw it into left field in an effort to force Cora at third. Cora came home on the throwing error.

Three of the team's five runs came either from Pedroia or the bottom of the order.

With the come from behind win the Sox inched another game closer to the Rays who have not looked good against the Yankees.

And the NFC EAST....


4. Redskins - This team got by last year largely on emotion after the sudden, violent death of teammate Sean Taylor. That won't carry over. Overall, they're the least talented team in the devision, have the fourth best quarterback and the least experienced head coach in the division. Overall, that's a formula that's likely to result in a five to six win season.

3. Giants - I concede that healthy, this team has as good a chance as any to return to the postseason - they have the best running game in the NFC East, they still have a decent defense, and that running game will go a long way toward making the D better. That said, I still don't trust Eli Manning. Yes, he had a postseason for the ages last year, but he's wildly inconsistent, and that vaunted defensive line, so deep last year, is one injury away from being completely screwed. This team could well win eleven, but could just as easily crap out at seven wins. My guess, eight or nine wins.

2. Cowboys - The most talented team in the division still has the second best defense in the East (New York's is better), and there's a volatility to the team that is kind of like a powder keg waiting to go off. They have a solid coach who has never had a losing season, but he's also never won a playoff game, they have a receiver that has torn apart two previous teams, a cornerback that has never gone a season without at least one arrest, and they have the coach of the future sitting on staff. That can't be good for a head coach's confidence. This team should win ten or eleven games, assuming it doesn't eat itself.

1. Eagles - Yup, going out on a limb here. I don't believe that they're the best team in the division, I think they have problems top to bottom. I'm not convinced that Asante Samuel is going to pay dividends (what ex-Pat has been an impact player with his new team in the Bill Belichick era? Adam Vinatieri and who else?). He's largely the same corner they had before but with a different name. They have okay but not great receivers. What they really have, however, is still the most talented quarterback in the division, and he was largely all the team had when they won the three straight NFC East titles. This year he's likely out to prove that the Kevin Kolb pick was a mistake. I think this team scratches and claws its way to eleven wins and a division title.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

City of Dust and the AFC South

Dusted...

He's the Mighty Mite, the Dust Storm. He's possibly the smallest clean-up hitter in the history of the Red Sox. When looking at it from a size perspective, the closest middle of the order you will find is Ted Williams and Jimmy Foxx to today's Dustin Pedroia/David Ortiz pairing. The big difference is that Foxx protected Williams in the line-up, not the other way around.

The team seems to have found Pedroia's spot in the order. To wit - He's batting .208 (72 at bats) when hitting first in the order, an impressive .339 (484 at bats) when batting second in the order, but when he's batting fourth, and yes, 14 at bats isn't a great sampling, but the numbers are obscene - he's hitting an mind-boggling .643, his on base percentage is .647, he's slugging 1.071 and his OPS is 1.718. He has yet to strikeout while batting fourth, while batting second he averaged one strikeout per 12.1 at bats.

In three games in the clean-up spot, his Runs Scored and Runs Batted In Per Game, or as I call it; RSBIG, is 3.33.

With Kevin Youkilis fighting a virus, Mike Lowell and JD Drew injured, Josh Beckett missing a couple of starts, Big Papi playing injured, Manny Ramirez playing his way out of town, and Varitek hitting like his last name should be Mendoza, Pedroia has led the team. Pedroia has been the spark plug, leading a cast that includes Jed Lowrie, Jason Bay, Jeff Bailey, Alex Cora, and Mark Kotsay.

Think about this for a second - The BoSox took two of three from potential post-season contender Chicago with a line-up that includes only opening day starters at only centerfield, second base, catcher, and designated hitter. More than half the starting line-up has turned over. They have missed starts from both of last seasons top two starters - Daisuke Matsuzaka and Beckett, and got virtually no contribution from the five spot in the rotation until recently.

I seem to remember some owner down in New York whining about how his team would be in contention if it weren't for injuries. Maybe they're just not that good a team. At least not good enough to compete with the Dust storm going on in Boston.

And onto the AFC South...

4. Texans - This team is improving, but they might be in the toughest division in football right now. While I believe this team will only win about five or six games tops, I also see them being in a lot of games at the end, losing several by less than a touchdown. If the offense improves and becomes more consistent, look for them to make some noise next season. This just isn't their year.

3. Titans - I see this team taking a step backwards. I still don't trust their quarterback and his desire to play the game. They will likely be 8-8 and out of the playoffs this season.

2. Colts - I think the Colts could still win the division, and I firmly believe that they will be going to the playoffs, but there are concerns around the Colts that mirror certain concerns I have with the Patriots. Manning is coming off an injury that will limit his mobility while playing behind a banged up line. Because of this there's every possibility that the Colts will get off to a slow start this season. Part of the issue I have with the line is that the middle of it is a mess. The big problem that the Colts will have that the Pats don't have is that the Colts face stiffer divisional competition. I see 10-6 and a wild card berth.

1. Jaguars - The Jags also have issues, particularly given the recent shooting incident, and they had a turbulent off-season with players getting in trouble. The Greg Williams defense might even be an issue for this team in getting over the hurdle that is the Colts considering, as good as his defenses have been, they have always lagged in the bottom half of the league in take-aways, and that might be a big problem. If everything clicks, they could win 11 or 12.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Goin' South, NFC Style

The NFC South has been a strange division. In every season since 2003 the team that was worst followed up by going to first the following season.

This year that trend breaks.

Yes, I actually believe that the Falcons are better than they were a year ago, but this is a team in development, not a team ready to win now. And away we go...

4. Falcons - While I'm not necessarily convinced that this team is going to win more games than they did a year ago, I do think this is a better team than last year's edition if for no other reason than the fact that I believe that Atlanta is better positioned to be successful down the road. However, even though I think four wins is the likely total, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team steal one or two and creep up to six wins.

3. Panthers - The more I have seen of this team since their ill-fated run at the Super Bowl a few seasons back, the more I think that was just one of those fluke seasons where everyone had that one career season, the serendipity of everyone on an otherwise average team peaking at the same time to come within a few minutes of a championship. In an effort to recapture that magic, the team has brought back a 35-year old Muhsin Muhammad to pair with the volatile Steve Smith in spite of the fact that Muhammad seldom got separation in Chicago. If Julius Peppers has a 2008 like his 2007, it's going to be a very long, very unrewarding season in the Carolinas.

2. Buccaneers - Chuckie's boys are the tough out, so to speak of the division. They'll hang around until the end, they'll pound you with a physical running game and a tough defense, but they'll also lose one or two to teams they have no business losing to. Realistically, they have just enough talent to scare some people and play spoiler, but they don't really have enough to get all the way to the Bowl. Chances are that they'll hit 8-8, maybe a repeat of last season's 9-7, and they may even win the division again, but they'll have to overcome the Saints which might be the best team in the division.

1. Saints - The Saints could potentially win 11 or 12 with the talent they have, assuming their defense comes together and Jeremy Shockey doesn't do to their locker room that he did to New York's. The chances of that, I think, are slim as this is a veteran quarterback that Shockey is dealing with, and it's definitively Drew Brees' locker room. This isn't a locker room that had veterans like Tiki Barber undermining the QB, and Brees isn't a guy that let's that stuff get to him (see his time with the Chargers for reference). Of the division's team's that have a shot at the playoffs, I think only the Saints have enough talent to make noise in the post-season.

Slipping away and the AFC North

They can feel it in the Big Apple. It was obvious last night.

A crowd of 51,000 in the Bronx watched in what can only be called reserved quiet as the Yankees went out of last night's game with a whimper. The bang was provided by the visiting Red Sox.

Through the two games the Sox have scored 18 runs against Yankee pitchers, with Dustin Pedroia and Jason Bay combining to drive in 10 runs. The only two Sox players that failed to score runs in the two games were Alex Cora and Kevin Cash, and Cora at least had an RBI, making Cash the only player who failed to contribute to the Sox' offensive outburst.

And the Yankees' $30-million man and clean-up hitter? The man who's supposed to be an offensive tour-de-force - Alex Rodriguez - is 2 for 9 (.222) in the series with one run scored on one batted in (home run), has left all eight men on that were occupying the base-paths during his at bats, and, overall, is batting .246 with runners in scoring position (he's batting .348 with the bases empty). This might be a radical thought, but maybe he should bat lead-off.

For a contrast, and maybe this illustrates how the seasons have gone for the two teams, Kevin Youkilis, who's currently batting clean-up behind David Ortiz, is batting .281 with the bases empty, but .360 with runners in scoring position. To take the comparison a step further - Youk is batting .429 and has 12 RBI with the bases loaded. A-Rod: .100 with 4 RBI.

With Jon Lester on the mound this afternoon against Mike Mussina, I would say today's game is a toss-up, giving the Sox a 50-50 chance at a sweep.

With 30 games left, in the season, more than 60 percent of them at Fenway for the Sox, the Yankees likely have to get to at least 94 wins, and probably 95 just for a playoff bid. That would be a gaudy and unrealistic 25-5 record for the final 30 games of the season.

It's time for the Yankees to begin looking at some of their minor leaguers, to see who the future of the team really is.

And on to the AFC North...

I don't see any major issues changing the face of this division from last year. Injuries and quarterback problems are issues for almost all of these teams.

4. Ravens - They may have found their quarterback of the future, but the future isn't now in Baltimore yet. They'll be in games and play teams tough, but they're at least a year away from being good. I'm guessing at six wins.

3. Bengals - Carson Palmer is already banged up, Chad Johnson is playing through a shoulder injury, and the team is so short at wide out that they resigned resident thug Chris Henry, whom the team claimed they would never re-sign when they cut him. And he can't play in the first month due to a four game suspension. This is not going to be the high powered offense we're used to. If they win more than seven, it will be something of a miracle, and, given their defensive woes, they could end up with four wins on the season.

2. Browns - They haven't looked good in the pre-season, but there's a lot of potential here. Their biggest issue remains on the defensive side of the ball. If they manage to work that out, this team could make some noise. As it is, they aren't surprising anyone this season, so I wouldn't be surprised at 8-8.

1. Steelers - I think that Pittsburgh takes the division - possibly at 9-6. Their biggest problem could be something of a lingering hangover from getting beat-up by other elite teams such as the Jaguars and Patriots late in the season. Only three of the Steelers wins last season came against teams that won at least ten games, and only one was a playoff contender. This season they face teams nine times that either won ten or made the playoffs last season. They have to play better against good teams, or this division might be sending an 8-8 division champ to the big show, and I guarantee, that team will be one and done.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

The Dog Days and the NFC North

In recent years this series - Sawx-Yanks - in the dog days of August has meant a lot to the complexion of the American League East. It has played a part in determining the East Champ, and even the Wild Card contender. It's where the wheels came off of the Sawx in 2005.

It's where the Sawx gave Yankees hope for the division last season.

This year it's less about the division than who ends up out of the playoffs. Nothing is written in stone, and both the Yankees and Sox have looked a little cooked lately, while the Twins have surged recently. Granted, the Sox were looking a little cooked at the beginning of
September last season, dropping five of their six to the Yanks in August and September and look what happened there.

But let's face a few basic facts - a month ago the Sox were by themselves as the wild card entrant if the season ended then. Now the margin of the Twins is smaller than the space between the Sox and the division leading Rays - who have added games between the two teams in the last month. The Sox still have a chance to pull it off - even the division - but the team has to play better ball of the next month than they have for the last month.

Needless to say, it's gonna be one hairy September in the Hub of the Universe.

And onto the gridiron...

The NFC North - Something feels weird about this division. It's filled with teams that all have issues, fatal flaws if you will, in regards to their aspirations to a Lombardi Trophy. All have an issue at a key position - quarterback - and some have issues that go deeper.

4. Lions - They may actually have the best quarterback in the division in John Kitna (and this might be the first time in Kitna's career that has EVER been written about him), and based on last year, Rod Marinelly might finally have this team heading in the right direction. But let's face two basic facts: The Ford Family ownership of this team has been an unending nightmare, and Matt Millen's tenure as a GM has been record shattering, and not in a good way. No team in the history of the NFL has had as many consecutive seasons with double-digits in the loss column, and I have a hard time buying that he's learned to be better than any of his in-division counterparts. If the Lions finish ahead of another team in the division, I'm guessing it has less to do with the Lions elevating their level of play than it does with the other team spitting the bit. I have a hard time seeing this team improving on their 7-9 season of last year, and considering their schedule gets considerably tougher after the first three games of their season, I wouldn't be surprised if they regressed to four wins.

3. Bears - The carousel goes around and around at the signal caller position, and it looks like Kyle Orton is getting the call again. You'd think someone there could pick a pro-caliber QB, but alas, no. But the real killer for this team is that the D is not what it once was, and lacks depth. I'm guessing in the vicinity of 8-8.

2. Vikings - Despite the deficiencies of Tavaris Jackson, I think this team will compete for the division, and may even win the division, but that's going to depend on three things. One - Jackson has to keep from making the mistake that kills the team. Two - the health of Adrian Peterson. The young running back racked up some hard miles in his rookie year, and breaking down is a strong possibility, and if that happens this team will plummet in the standings. His ability to pound the ball last season made the Minnesota defense better by keeping them rested. If he's not touching the ball, they pay. Three - the health of Aaron Rogers.

1. Packers - The Packers won 13 games last season and were a few plays away from the Super Bowl. Their only major change was at quarterback. Rogers has been in the system for three seasons already, has been solid in preseason, and was better against the Cowboys last season than Brett Favre. If Rogers stays healthy, the Pack wins the division, albeit not by much. Last year they were five games better than the 8-8 Vikings. This season they're maybe two games better, and maybe not even that.

Friday, August 22, 2008

Live from the Outer Banks, iiiiiittttt'sss the Aaaaannnngry Fan

So, I've been in Corolla, NC, for the last week (I'm still there as I type this on the porch of the beach house the family has rented). It's been a little difficult to give a rat's ass about a whole lot going on when I've been sitting in breezy low 80 degree temperatures. It has also been kind of hard to focus with my two daughters and four nieces tearing around the house like miniature banshees. So I have largely been spending days at the beach cranking through Dennis Lehane novels.

Some quick thoughts and then my pre-season take on the NFC West...

Is it just me, or has there been a domino effect on the bullpen every time Clay Buchholz has pitched lately? He struggles, they go to the pen, and they struggle. It's almost as though they're taking their cue from whoever the starter is and if the starter sucks it up, so too does the pen. I haven't looked closely to see if this is true, but it certainly feels like this is what's been happening lately. It's probably for the best that Buchholz was sent back down.

If the Sox can't come up with a viable replacement for Buchholz, a guy who can go at least .500 in his place, the Sox are going to lose out on the division, and likely the playoffs, as the AL Central looks like it has a pretty strong chance of sending two teams to the big dance.

Carl Pavano is expected to start for the Yankees on Saturday. Stick a fork in 'em. Right now this is their rotation -

Mike Mussina
Carl Pavano
Darrell Rasner
Andy Pettitte
Sid Ponson

That's not only not a championship rotation, it's a rotation that's barely average. Only one of the starters gives up fewer than four runs per nine innings pitched, and that's Mike Mussina. Not exactly known for coming up big in the late season pressure games (sure, he hasn't been awful in the post-season, but 7-8 with a 3.42 ERA is hardly dominating, or impressive).

Now onto the West...

This is a hard one to call because, like the AFC West, the NFC West is rife with mediocre and bad teams. It's hard to ascribe any separation between the Rams and the 49ers, as well as the Cardinals and the Seahawks. The two duos definitively make up the top and the bottom of a bad division. One of the teams might surprise, it's always possible, but this is how I see it...

4. 49ers - I think this is a team going backwards. They appear to lack a true NFL quality quarterback, instead having three guys that would be back-ups on other teams. Frank Gore is solid at running back, but the passing game and the defense are suspect. I have a hard time seeing this team improve on the five wins of a year ago, and suspect that they could slip to a four win season easily.

3. Rams - Like San Fran, I'm not convinced of this team's improvement. However, with contests against the rival 49ers (twice), the Jets, Dolphins, Falcons, and Bills, there's a chance this team could eke out five or six wins, although, I suspect at least one loss to the Niners, and possible losses to the Jets and Bills. I wouldn't be surprised by three wins, but I would be by any more than six.

2. Seahawks - I haven't been thrilled by this team's personnel moves since the Super Bowl loss to the Steelers. I think they overpaid for Deion Branch, an oft-injured, undersized receiver who got it into his head, and into the Seahawks' heads that he was better than really is. They let one of the better offensive linemen on the team walk away. They signed TJ Duckett, who I feel has never quite lived up to what little hype has surrounded him. The only signing I liked was Julius Jones. While they are clearly one of the most consistent teams in the NFC, I believe time has chipped away at their hold on the division and that they may be in danger of missing the post-season this year. All that said, I'm looking at nine wins, maybe ten for this team.

1. Cardinals - I'm buying into the hype. The last time I did, I got burned, but I'm going to ride with it again. Knowing the history of this team, they could easily wind up at the bottom of the division, but I think they're poised for a playoff run. They have a young, high-octane offense in place that has shown signs of life the last two seasons. With the offensive weapons in place, the Arizona brain trust has concentrated on their defensive shortcomings, and the buzz out of the desert is that the D could be pretty good this year. If that happens, this could be a team that makes some noise. They'll have their work cut out for them with all the teams from the East on their schedule, but I can see them stealing one here and there to fight their way to around ten wins.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Sizing up the AFC West

Welcome to my sizing up of the NFL before the start of the 2008 season. The following is how I see the quality of the teams stacking up, and the order in which I see the teams finishing. Any of the teams could finish better or worse than what I have listed here, and my first look will be at the AFC West.

4. Raiders - With the addition of running back Darren McFadden, the Raiders are better than they were a year ago. How much better remains to be seen. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced that JaMarcus Russell is going to fare any better in the pros than Michael Vick did. His high draft status was predicated pretty much on one strong season in college. The last team that did that was the Bengals when they drafted Akili Smith in the first round. I think they inch their way to a six win season.

3. Chiefs - I don't really believe that the Chiefs are better than their brethren by the Bay, or that Brody Croyle is going to be any better than Russell will be. Honestly, I think the two teams will battle it out for a spot in the West's basement. While I'm thinking six wins from the Chiefs, I wouldn't be surprised at a repeat of the team's four win 2007 campaign.

2. Broncos - There's some talent on this team, but I've never been as convinced of Mike Shanahan's genius as he or Denver fans have been. He's made some horrible personnel decisions, including the drafting of Maurice Clarett, and for an offensive genius, he's not exactly been able to get the most out of his quarterbacks. I think this team is looking at .500, 9-7 tops.

1. Chargers - San Diego is still the class of the West. They have the best defense and the best running back. Unfortunately their quarterback took a big step backwards last year, their running back likes to look for excuses outside of his team for why they lose, and I still don't have confidence that Norv Turner is the coach to get this team to the promised land. There were whispers of infighting and players not completely committed to Turner's system last season, and the team won fewer games. They will make the playoffs, likely at ten wins, but they will not get the bye.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

The dividends of youth

For the second straight night the Red Sox battered Texas pitching, scoring eight runs through the first five innings. Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, and Jed Lowrie accounted for six batted in of the eight runs. The three of them make for an average age of 27.33 years old (approximately). Youkilis and Bay are both 29, Lowrie is 24.

The 25 year old Dustin Pedroia had another two hits tonight and is now 7 for 11 against Texas pitching.

But more importantly, 24 year old Jon Lester was in shutdown mode for seven and a third innings only one day after the spot-starter and bullpen immolated. Lester gave the bullpen a much needed break.

However, Mike Timlin poured gas on the fire in the eighth, failing to record an out before giving up one earned run of his own, and allowing two inherited runners to score - screwing an otherwise beautiful start by Lester who got the two runs credited to his ERA.

Even Justin Masterson, 23, got in on the win with a scoreless ninth.

I've noted this before, but there is a definite "the future is now" vibe that the Sox have with homegrown youngsters like Masterson, Lester, Pedroia, Lowrie, Ellsbury (24), and Youkilis leading a contingent of ten Red Sox' minor league products on the major league roster.

This is what Brian Cashman wants, what he is aiming for with the likes of Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain. It, so far, is not what he has received.

And it has made the difference.

As the Yankees have struggled with injuries and age, the Sox have managed to engage in plug-and-play with their youngsters, who have performed. Take one look at Kennedy and Hughes. Neither has performed.

As a matter of fact, neither was ready for the majors, and now the Yankees are relying on the likes of Sidney "The Pontoon" Ponson, and Daryl Rasner for whenever they begin their playoff drive. If these guys make up 40 percent of your rotation, the post-season is a long-shot. At best.

But these are the dividends the Sox have received for not rushing the young guns to the majors - Clay Buchholz not withstanding. And it's exactly why they should be in the thick of it next year as well.

The Hard Way

The Red Sox inched a game closer to the Rays. They did it the hard way.

In a four-hour marathon of a game, the two teams combined for 87 at bats, 37 hits, 36 runs, 36 men left on base, 35 RBI's, 13 walks, four errors, and only 12 strikeouts. The two teams used a total of 11 pitchers that threw a combined to throw more than 400 pitches.

By the end of it all, the Red Sox won by a final score of 19-17, a score more indicative of a football game rather than a baseball game.

While it's not encouraging that the bullpen trio of Javy Lopez, David Aardsma, and Manny Delcarmen combined to give up seven earned runs in two innings (a combined raging 31.50 ERA for those three pitchers in that two innings), it was good to see Hideki Okajima come in and put out the fire - stem the bleeding so to speak.

Other game observations...

David Ortiz looked like his wrist isn't bothering him so much right now. He had two home runs (in the first inning), one wrapped around the Pesky Pole, one to dead center, and a ground rule double to the triangle in center. For the game he was 3 for 4 with four runs scored and six RBI's.

In the bottom of the eighth, with two outs, the game tied at 16 and Dustin Pedroia on, Texas manager Ron Washington chose to intentionally walk David Ortiz (batting .260 this year) to get to Kevin Youkilis - the same Kevin Youkilis that is second on the team with a .316 batting average, leads the team in home runs with 22 (21 before his final at bat last night), and RBI's with 81.

To that point in the game Youkilis was 1 for 4 (home run) with two strikeouts and two RBI's. Youk, about due for another hit, made Washington pay for his choice, hitting a three run shot that cleared the Monster where the Wall meets the centerfield triangle. To borrow from Bull Durham - anything hit that far oughta have a stewardess.

Other positives include the fact that knuckleballer Charlie Zink pitched reasonably well into the fifth inning against a heavy hitting Texas lineup before the wheels fell off. I'll generally take four-plus innings from someone who never had a major league start before.

JD Drew continues to have a strong season with two hits, an RBI and three runs scored. Jason Bay continues to justify the trade with another RBI as he continues to hit over .300. But it's the middle infield that's tearing it up.

Jed Lowrie continues to make Theo Epstein's choice to give Julio Lugo a three year deal look foolish as he had another two hits, another two RBI's, and a run scored. His battery-mate at second, Dustin Pedroia is the Mighty-Mite, the Mini-Monster, He's become the Red Sox toughest out. For the game he was 5 for 6 with five runs scored and two batted in - including the RBI that tied the ballgame.

Lester goes next, then Matsuzaka, and Beckett likely followed by new acquisition Paul Byrd. Byrd should make things interesting at the back end of the rotation.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

The time is now, and other thoughts...

The Rays are getting dinged up - Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford, the team's two biggest offensive threats just went on the DL. Crawford is likely done for the year, and, with a broken wrist, it would be surprising to see Longoria back before the middle of September. The Red Sox, meanwhile, just finished a 4-3 road trip, winning two of three against the bottom of the barrel Royals, and taking two of four from the wild card hopeful White Sox.

What should be encouraging is that the Sox outscored their two opponents 38 - 22. Their big issue on the road this year has been scoring runs.

Jed Lowrie is making if very difficult for the Sox brass to justify keeping Julio Lugo. In fewer than half the at bats, Lowrie is on pace to have 105 RBI's over the course of a 500 at bat season. Lugo is on pace for 42 over the same number of at bats. Add to that the fact that Lugo leads the team with 16 errors, six more than Mike Lowell in only 11 more total chances, and eleven more than fellow middle infielder Dustin Pedroia (in 256 fewer chances than Pedroia), Lugo may have played his way into being a very expensive back up.

On a separate note -

This weekend I finally got to see the Pats-Ravens pre-season game, and here are some of the thoughts regarding that...

Matt Cassel didn't look as bad as his stats line. He wasn't good, but he had at least two completions dropped on him. If he doesn't improve, in over the next couple of games, I think he's gone by opening day.

The Pats brain-trust needs to hope that Brady doesn't sustain any major injuries.

More than Cassel, Chad Jackson has to perform. Jackson was outperformed by Matt Slater, CJ Jones, and even safety Ray Ventrone at the wide-out position.

I don't know that the Ventrone experiment is going to land him on the roster or not, but it's going to be fun to watch during the pre-season.

The team's young linebackers looked good - Jerrod Mayo had a great hit, standing up and stopping the Ravens running back at the line of scrimmage, Shawn Crable was very active, and even Pierre Woods, who really needs to show improvement this year, looked good coming off the edge. If I were to base the linebackers on what I saw in that game, all three of those guys are making the final roster.

Lamont Jordan looked good, but it was mostly against competition that he should look good against. I would like to see more of him against the first and second stringers.

I would like to see less of Billy Yates pretending to be a turnstile at right guard.

I would like to see better pressure from the front four on defense.

Friday, August 08, 2008

Cassels made of sand

I won't get to see last night's pre-season match-up between the Patriots and Ravens until Saturday, but I think I can safely say that Matt Cassel needs to play better than he did to remain on the roster. Cassel completed two of four passes for eleven yards. Unfortunately, one of those completions was to the Ravens.

In fact, without Brady playing, Pats signal-callers tossed three int's to no touch downs.

Cassel, in the last year of his contract, will need to perform better in the subsequent exhibition matches to find himself on the Pats roster - or possibly any other roster come the regular season opener.

On an encouraging note - the Pats got a big play from their connection to the roots of the NFL - rookie linebacker Shawn Crable, a third round pick, had three tackles, an assist, half a sack and an interception.

Crable, a six-foot-five, 245-pound alum of Tom Brady's alma mater, was born and raised in Massillon, OH. For those who don't know, Massillon was home to the Massillon Tigers, a football team that folded in 1920. The Tigers won the Ohio Independent Championship (the pro championship) for three consecutive years, from 1904 to 1906 - beating the Canton Bulldogs in the '06 title game. In October of 1906, Canton is the first team credited with completing a forward pass under a rule change for the '06 season.

Other sand castles...

The Jets feel they have added the final component to becoming a contender with Brett Favre. This followed an off-season during which they over-hauled their offensive line, adding Alan Faneca (32 years old) at left guard and Damien Woody (31) at right tackle. The 32-year old Faneca will be wedged between D'Brickshaw Ferguson at left tackle and Nick Mangold at center. While that improves the left side of the line, Faneca was largely manhandled by Patriots linemen in the last couple of Steelers-Patriots meetings, and, at 32, there's very likely not much left in his tank (yes, Faneca was first team all-pro last year, but he also had better people around him than he will in the Meadowlands).

As for Woody, their answer to stopping people on that side is a career interior lineman with a weight problem and slow feet. 'Nuff said.

All in all, the Jets should be better, but this isn't an offensive line that anyone is going to worry about until they show they can really manhandle their opponents.

As for Manny...I would be a lot more interested in Major League Baseball's announced investigation into Manny Ramirez and Scott Boras if I believed that anything could really come of it. I appreciate that Bud Selig feels it should be investigated. I believe discipline should be in order, but, despite some of the Union's recent losses in the court of public opinion and in the halls of the Nation's law makers, I don't think that MLB will be able to make anything stick in regards to Manny. They might be able to sanction Scott Boras, but that's where that discipline will end.

In Da Bronx the starting rotation is quickly unraveling. Joba Chamberlain will miss at least two more starts, and possibly more (some rumors floating out there say that even when he gets back, it might be straight to the bullpen), and now word is that Andy Pettitte might miss a start with stiffness in his pitching arm. None of this should be a surprise given - Chamberlain was rushed into the rotation, almost never throwing in excess of 30 pitches per outing in the last season and a half, and then, within four starts throwing at least 100 pitches, and averaging more than that per start since then.

As for Pettitte. I guess it's harder to be as effective as he was in Houston now that he's off the juice.

With the Yankees rotation crumbling, it will take a miracle for the Bommahs to make the post-season. It's not unrealistic - just very, very unlikely.

Thursday, August 07, 2008

Observational Thursday

Jacoby Ellsbury can play defense. I don't think Coco would have made the catch that Ellsbury made, diving under the outstretched glove of Jed Lowrie.

Speaking of Ellsbury - for all his recent struggles at the plate, he's hitting .357 in his last nine games with one home run, four runs scored, five driven in, and two stolen bases. Nice to see.

During the Red Sox championship runs we often heard from the pundits about how the Boston nine would be in trouble if they lost David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez for any significant time. Let's face it - They've been without Big Papi this whole season. Yeah, Ortiz has been in the line-up for all but a month, a month and a half, but this is a .250, roughly 75 RBI Ortiz, not the .302, 128.4 RBI per season Big Papi we've seen before this season in Boston. And Manny, well, let's just say the Sox are 6 - 4 in their last ten, with five of those wins coming after Ramirez was traded.

Over in the NFL...

Brett Favre on the Jets. This should be entertaining. It won't be good, but it should be entertaining. Consider - the last time Favre had to learn a new system was when he was traded to the Packers. Favre reputedly did nothing to help with Aaron Rodgers' development, and will likely do nothing for Kellen Clemens'.

Just a hunch, but I think this might be the year that Favre's consecutive starts ends. Any team that thinks Damien Woody is the solution at right tackle, five career starts at the position, has serious issues with their offensive line. Or, to put it another way, the Jets feel that a lineman that lost his job in Detroit is the solution to their O-line woes. It doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence that either Mike Tannenbaum nor Eric Mangini really know what they're doing.

Sure he may have helped the Jets improve, but they're no better than a .500 club. They might eke out more than that, but only by the grace of playing the NFC West clubs.

It's not the decision I expected him to make, considering - he will have to face New England twice, and San Diego, and to get to the Super Bowl he has to believe that the team around him in New York has to be able to get by the Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Steelers, and Jaguars - all teams, that even with Favre added to New York, are still better than the Jets. That doesn't even take into account the Titans, Browns, Broncos, and Bengals - all teams that are probably better than the Favre-Jets.

Is it just me, or is anyone else envisioning Joe Namath in a Rams uniform, or Johnny Unitas in a Chargers uni?

Saturday, August 02, 2008

Bay State and fishing for a contract...

The first pitch Manny Ramirez saw in a Red Sox uniform was knocked out of the park. The first at bat with the Dodgers resulted in a ground out.

The line for Manny in his first game for the Dodgers 2 for 4 (two singles), no RBI's, no runs scored, one man left in scoring position, and he grounded into a double play that killed the Dodgers chances for a come from behind win in the ninth inning. Bay, on the other hand, went 1 for 3, walked twice and scored both of the Sox' runs in their win to go along with a highlight reel catch in left.

Sure, that's one game, and ten games, twenty games, fifty games from now, the end result might be very different, but I still don't think so. I think the pundits that believe the Red Sox lost out in this trade haven't paid close attention to Manny over the last couple of seasons - I'm not talking about this season - but this, the last, and the one before that. This is, as I noted in a previous post, how the two stack up against each other...

Ramirez has hit 75 home runs and driven in 258, while Bay has 78 homers and driven in 257 in the Pirates line-up. Bay has not had hitters like David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis around him.
Based on those numbers, Ramirez sabotaged his remaining days with the Red Sox, engineering the trade in an effort to avoid the team held $20 million per year options and, according to his agent, land a new four year deal worth $100 mil. $25 mil per year. For the same guy nobody would claim on waivers. In his prime. For less money than that.

Now he's older, his stats aren't as good, and the Red Sox had to pay the Dodgers to take him.

And somehow, he believes that he's going to get better than $20 million per year on the market for the next four.

I guess that's just another case of Manny being Manny. Although I suppose, depending on how it all plays out, it could be a case of Manny being Nomar - the man who was insulted by the Sox' 4-year $60 million contract extension, became disgruntled in the club house, and, as a result, was traded to the Cubs. Nomar, who began to show signs of being...fragile...had an undistinguished second half and, as a result, has made approximately half the money he would have made had he signed the extension.

Manny will be better than Nomar was, but he's not going to put up the numbers in cavernous Dodger Stadium that he did in the friendly confines of Fenway, batting in the 21st ranked offense, as opposed to the fourth. Just like that will negatively affect his offensive production, Bay's move from the Pirates to the Red Sox should positively influence his.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Manny being Manny

Often Manny Ramirez plays baseball with a child-like joy. Unfortunately, like clockwork, he also uses his position and the perception of himself as one of the games premier hitters to throw petulant tantrums.

Almost every year that he's been in Boston, he's done this - and the Fenway faithful have generally forgiven him, given him a pass, and cheered him. The same fan-base that booed Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, and Jim Rice, has given Manny a pass.

Now Manny says the following -

“The Red Sox don’t deserve a player like me,” Ramirez said. “During my years here, I’ve seen how they (the Red Sox) have mistreated other great players when they didn’t want them to try to turn the fans against them.

“The Red Sox did the same with guys like Nomar Garciaparra and Pedro Martinez, and now they do the same with me. Their goal is to paint me as the bad guy.

“I love Boston fans, but the Red Sox don’t deserve me. I’m not talking about money. Mental peace has no price, and I don’t have peace here.”

I agree, the Sox don't deserve him. They made Manny one of the highest paid players in the history of the game when they signed him - and they got a player that whined about not wanting to be in Boston from year one, a player that would fake injuries and illness to get out of the line-up, take plays off, and fail to run out ground balls, and in so doing, screw his teammates. Why? Because he doesn't like his contract. Because he doesn't have enough privacy in Boston (then don't invite the Globe into your house to do an article on where you live). Because he has friends on another team.

And let's face a few realities here - realities that Manny is not acknowledging...

Manny shoved a senior citizen to the ground, no one made him do that. Manny complained about pain in the knee - not for the first time while he's been with the team - and this time the Sox called him on it by getting an MRI on both knees. He's complained about his deal with regularity - the one he signed - upset about the team-held options. It's not like these were hidden in fine print when he signed the contract - everyone knew the deal before the ink was drying, but now he's unhappy with it. No one held a gun to his head.

Manny's doing a really, really good job of painting himself as the bad guy.

And let's face it, when someone's hitting 45 home-runs and knocking in 130 to 144 RBI's per season, and leading the league in many of the offensive categories, it's easy to write off the whining and other issues that come with Manny.

But he's not leading the league anymore. This is what he's doing...

Tied for 26th in the majors in home runs.

Tied for 25th in RBI's.

Tied for 25th in Runs.

Is 35th in batting average.

Is 18th in OPS.

Is 26th in slugging percentage.

Of all of those stats, the only one in which Manny leads the Red Sox is homers - he has 20 to JD Drew's 19, and Kevin Youkilis' 18. Otherwise, he trails teammates in every other category.

If the trade the Sox are looking at works out, Boston will bring in the 29-year old Jason Bay who leads Ramirez in home runs, has only four fewer RBI's, has scored six more runs while batting in the 12th ranked line-up in the majors. Ramirez is in the fifth, and for much of the season the Sox line-up was top two.

Over the last three seasons (including this one), Ramirez has hit 75 home runs and driven in 258, while Bay has 78 homers and driven in 257 in the Pirates line-up. Bay has not had hitters like David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis around him.

For the season, given their current line-ups, Ramirez projects for 30 home runs and 102 RBI's, Bay for 33 homers and 96 RBI's. What might Bay do in a better line-up?

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Perspective

Every now and then my paying gigs remind me to how small, in the grand scheme of things, most of the stuff associated with sports really is. Don't get me wrong - I love athletics, and I think participation is important for our children for many reasons - health, learn how to both win and lose gracefully, and social interaction/learning how to work as part of a team are all part of it.

For the most part, I love getting paid to write.

Yesterday wasn't one of those days.

Yesterday a fire broke out two blocks from my home. It displaced a family of nine, and while nobody was killed, two children and an elderly woman were taken to the hospital. One of the children, a 12-year old boy, was taken to the local hospital and treated for smoke inhalation. The elderly woman (65), and a little girl (11) were airlifted to a burn center in Washington, DC. The girl, Ashley Beachley, was listed in critical condition with third-degree burns covering half her body. Once stabilized, the girl was airlifted again to the Shriner's Burn Center in Boston.

It really puts into perspective the useless and insulting whining that currently is Brett Favre, Ryan Grant, and Manny Ramirez, and any number of other athletes.

Sure, I generally think these guys get pretty full of themselves in contract talks, but let's face it - we're not talking life and death issues. Well, okay, sometimes they are. Sometimes the story is about a potentially fatal illness - Jon Lester, Joe Andruzzi - but quite often it's about some athlete, some fan or fan base, or some team executive whining and pointing fingers, denying some wrong.

This is something that happens for me every now and then - one of those hard stories (and please don't misunderstand, I'm not trying to come off with a woe-is-me sort of piece here) that reminds you of the triviality of the posturing in which these entertainers engage.

A life cut short in a plane crash.

A student athlete cut down in the streets, his only crime that he was trying to break up a fight.

A man, once on borrowed time, adjusting to life with a new heart.

A slum lord slowing redevelopment of a city neighborhood, while taking advantage of young tenants.

A little girl, burned.

Over the years, these are just some of the stories that have reminded me to keep sports in perspective. I wish a speedy recovery for Ashley, who rode the bus to school with my daughter this year, and I sincerely wish that your first trip to Boston had been under much better circumstances.

Monday, July 28, 2008

Recovering

So, as I sit in Western Maryland recovering from a physical game against the North Carolina Tigers (we won 106 - 46 to extend our streak to somewhere in the neighborhood of 23 - 1 against USAFL opposition since late in the 2006 season), I am pondering a handful of sports questions, thoughts, and observations...

Starting with the near and dear to my heart...

Manny Ramirez needs to shut-up and play. Like Brett Favre, he's not the general manager, he doesn't make the decisions regarding the team options on the contract. And let's face it, as much of an offensive force Manny has been, his age has begun to show - Sure, he's on pace for 100 RBI's, and that's up from last season's 88, and will probably just about match the 102 he had from two seasons ago, but will be down from his back to back 130 and 144 seasons before that. It's below his career average of 107, though not significantly, although it would be roughly 14 RBI's below his average in a Boston uniform (not including this season).

He's doing that in a line-up that includes Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury who have combined for 199 runs scored. He's doing that in a line-up where he's protected by the likes of Pedroia, Youk, and David Ortiz hitting ahead of him and Mike Lowell (63 RBI's, 13 HR's) and JD Drew (58 RBI's, 19 HR's) hitting behind him. In his career, he's never had to be the guy to carry a team, he's always had protection around him.

How many other places will he go that the line-up forces teams to pitch to him? The Rangers? The Cubs? How many places are already taking themselves out of the running, like the Mets, that just don't want to deal with Manny being Manny?

His agent thinks he can get him four years, $100 million at the end of the year. I think the agent is dreaming if he thinks that he's going to get that much for a slugger that will be 37 at the beginning of May, who has been complaining about his knees for the last couple of years. Sixty to $85 million, I could see, but only the foolish will be investing $25 million in a 41-year old slugger.

Speaking of Favre - boy have I gotten tired of him.

Someone needs to explain the following - he's not the coach. He's not the GM, and the GM's job isn't to try to make sure he gets one last big hurrah at the expense of the future of the team. Ted Thompson's job is to secure the future of the team. Thompson's job is to put the tools around his quarterback to give him the best chance to win.

I seem to remember that in a playoff game in Lambeau last year he had trouble getting the ball to his receivers - even when he had time. He overthrew balls, under threw receivers, and looked uncomfortable - like he didn't want to be there.

Now the Legend wants me to believe that his GM isn't trustworthy because the man failed to out-offer the Patriots for Randy Moss, because he let aging linemen go to put younger, more athletic linemen in front of his aging star, because, while his moves resulted in the team coming within a game of the Super Bowl, that they weren't right because Favre didn't like them.

He needs to stop trying to play this in the court of public opinion. He's losing, and losing bad. Especially coming from a guy that expects everyone to believe that he was just calling the Vikings coaching staff to shoot the breeze. Yeah. Right. And I'm the current owner of the Major League Baseball record for home runs in a single season.

Finally, a few quick thoughts on marketing language - I love marketing language. In an effort to make used cars more marketable, they're no longer "used," they're "certified pre-owned." It's no longer an "impotence" drug, no, now they're for "male enhancement." My personal favorite - you go high end with a "pawn shop," and you have an "antique store."

I bring this up because professional sports leagues are masters at this. They're absolutely brilliant. Consider - the NFL gets television coverage and people paying money for scrimmages. Yeah, they call them pre-season games, but they're scrimmages. But, for my money, the best one out there belongs to baseball.

Baseball, while lagging behind the NFL in ratings, is still the master at repackaging. Consider this - they have managed to convince their fans to shell out hundreds of dollars for even the cheap seats during batting practice the night before the All-Star Game simply by calling it "The Home Run Derby."

That's just admirably brilliant.

Friday, July 25, 2008

It won't play in Peoria

The Peoria Chiefs (Cubs) were at the Dayton Dragons (Reds) last night and the game made the national news. That's almost never a good thing. When minor league teams make the national media, it's either because a player did something particularly unusual (there's the famous highlight of the right fielder literally running through the outfield wall to make a catch), or because the news is bad. More often than not, the big league team doesn't want to see their affiliates' names in the press unless it's in the context of, "Ortiz reported to the Sea Dogs for a rehab assignment."

Otherwise they're looking at news like Mike Coolbaugh's freak death, or Delmon Young's assault of an umpire.

The Cubs can't be happy this morning. And of the two teams, they're the ones that should have the most trouble from today's news. The roots of the incident were summarized in the AP report as -

Dayton pitcher Kyle Lotzkar hit Peoria's Nate Samson with a pitch in the top of the first. In the inning's bottom half, Castillo hit Dayton's Zack Cozart in the head with a pitch. Cozart fell to the ground, was helped to the dugout and didn't return.

Several batters later, Castillo hit Angel Cabrera, who angrily threw his bat and batting gloves toward his dugout before taking first. Dayton's next batter hit an infield grounder, and Cabrera made an aggressive slide into second to break up the double play.

Castillo followed that with a high-and-tight pitch to the next batter, Brandon Menchaca, prompting Dayton manager Donnie Scott to complain to the home plate umpire. Interim Peoria manager Carmelo Martinez came on the field to join the discussion.

That led to an argument between the two managers, and when Martinez pushed Scott, the benches emptied.
All of this led to Castillo, after the benches emptied, throwing a fastball at the opposing dugout which went into the stands and injured a fan. Castillo is currently facing charges for aggravated assault and, if you saw the footage, is likely facing jail time.

I want to dissect what happened here, because a lot of this should never have happened, and almost all of this can be laid at the feet of Martinez, the team's interim manager while Ryne Sandberg is in Cooperstown for the Hall of Fame ceremonies, and the umpires.

Lotzkar was a compensatory first round pick in the supplemental draft. On the season, according to minors.baseball-reference.com he's 0-3 in four starts (16 innings pitched) with a 6.19 ERA, giving up 14 runs (11 earned) on 14 hits, and 15 walks with one hit by pitch (I don't know if that includes yesterday's game) and one wild pitch. Not a pitcher with the best control in the world.

Contrast that with Castillo who has appeared in six games with three starts over 22 innings and put together a 2.86 ERA with 22 hits and 10 walks.

Lotzkar, projected for the same number of innings gives up 19 hits and walks 21. Tell me, which of the two of these guys sounds like they have no trouble finding the strike zone? The one who has less than half the number of walks than hits allowed, or the one who has issued more free-passes than given up hits?

Yet, somehow Castillo hit the first batter in the head, then beaned another and nearly, according to reports, hits a third in the head.

After Castillo hit the first guy - considering he hit him in the head and the player didn't return - the ump should probably have tossed him then. At the very least a warning should have been issued and there's no way Castillo should have still been on the mound after the second batter was hit.

Given that the umps didn't do this, it was certainly understandable that Dayton manager Scott would want to talk to the umpire. What I don't understand is why Martinez felt he needed to be out there. There was no reason for him to be out there.

All Martinez did was escalate the issue, attacking the other team's manager when he shouldn't have been anywhere near the man.

The only way for this to be handled properly - Castillo needs to serve jail time and the Cubs need to can Martinez. I can't help but think that if Sandberg was sitting on the bench, at least some of this wouldn't have escalated the way it did.

If you missed it, here's the ESPN footage -

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Mid-week observations after a couple of busy ones...

Well, it's official that the Boston Herald is definitively not having John Tomase walk into a Patriots locker room ever again. Currently Tomase is either no longer employed by the paper, or he's on vacation, as it's been ten days since they have printed anything by the reporter who ran with the story on the Patriots allegedly taping a Rams Super Bowl walk through.

After taking a beating at the hands of the Angels, the Red Sox went into Seattle to find a tonic to cure what ailed them. The Mariners, tied for the second worst record in the league dropped three in a row after the Sox did the same in Anaheim.

Lester continues to cruise, and the Sox are about to get what appears to be a healthy David Ortiz back into a line-up that, despite their offensive road woes, leads the AL in average (.280), and is second in the AL in runs with 517 scored.

For years a number of pundits have asked what the Red Sox line-up would do without David Ortiz in the heart of it. Now we know.

The team has alternately been carried by Dustin Pedroia (.321, 47 RBI's), Kevin Youkilis (.311, 68), JD Drew (.291, 57), and Mike Lowell (.287, 61). In spite of Manny's impressive numbers (.301, 62), and maybe it's because of all the stupid stuff - the whine about the contract, the attack of the traveling secretary - but something about his numbers feel a little hollow this year. At no time does it feel like he was part of the effort to keep the team afloat. Realistically, I would have to check the situations surrounding his RBI's, but something about Manny feels decidedly A-Rodish this season.

And on a final note - is there just something about Detroit and Basketball, or what?

Monday, July 21, 2008

Taylor-made trade

So Jason Taylor is now on the Redskins for the reasonable ransom of Miami's second-rounder next year, and a sixth-rounder in the 2010 draft. The debate has begun as to who won - who made out best at the end of the day.

Let's begin by noting that no one will really know, of these two teams, who the real winner is for a couple of years, but here are some thoughts on the trade...

In the long run, it's likely that the Dolphins were winners here if you consider the following...a second rounder and a sixth rounder used right can amount to some significant long-term help. Consider Matt Light (2nd rounder) and Tom Brady (6th rounder), or Adalius Thomas (6th rounder) and Lawyer Milloy (2nd rounder) - all of those are players that have contributed long-term in the NFL. Especially considering Jason Taylor's expressed intent to retire at the end of next season, the Dolphins team has a chance to make this trade work out well for them - but that depends on Bill Parcells' ability to buy the right groceries.

As for the Redskins...well, sure, they get a six time pro-bowler, but this isn't the first time under Dan Snyder's watch that the 'Skins have brought in a multiple pro-bowler...Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Jerome Mathis, and Mark Brunell are a small cross-section of the high end players that the Snyder regime has brought in. They are members of a fraternity of Washington players that accounted for 26 pro-bowls previous to signing with Snyder in the nation's capital (Taylor will bring the number to 32).

The 'Skins, of course, are hoping to break that jinx with Taylor, but even if they do, they're only getting a season, maybe two from him. I would be surprised if he played any longer, given his very public sentiments to get involved in other post-career endeavors. Given the division, and everything the 'Skins have going against them, I don't see Taylor in a significantly better situation...

Yes, the Redskins made great strides last season finishing third in the NFC East with a 9-7 record - this in spite of a quarterback who often looked not-quite-ready for prime time. However, they are starting from scratch with a new coaching staff and a new system in a division in which they have the fourth best quarterback and an unproven commodity at coach.

Taylor now finds himself anchoring a defense on a team looking up at the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants, the defending NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys, and perennial contender Philadelphia Eagles.

Let's look at it a little differently - if Taylor had his choice of teams, rather than being shipped in a trade, yet still limiting it to the NFC East, is he choosing the team with Super Bowl winning coach Tom Coughlin? The team with Andy Reid, the only coach to go to the NFC Championship Game four consecutive seasons? Or Wade Phillips who has had only one losing season as a head coach? Or Jim Zorn, a career coordinator? I'm guessing it's not the last one.

So, who is really the winner in this case?

I don't think it's either the 'Skins who get a one year rental or the 'Phins who get question marks.

Nope.

It's Tom Brady and Matt Light.

While the Patriots have beaten the Dolphins pretty regularly over the last couple of years, the games against them have been about a struggle. Jason Taylor has been a big part of that, making life miserable twice a year for Brady and Light and now he's gone.

They win.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Reaping what they sow

The house of cards that Roger Clemens has built is crumbling. Quickly.

Consider - Sure, his accuser is about as shady as back alley with a roof covering, but Brian McNamee has had his story corroborated by multiple sources, including by Clemens' buddy Andy Pettitte, fellow steroid distributor Kirk Radomski, and even to some extent, by Clemens himself (way to throw your wife under the bus, Roger).

Clemens has a baby sitter who appears to have been tampered with and a Jose Canseco testimony that appears to have been contradicted by photographic evidence.

To put it plainly, if you're going to do something illegal, don't leave a paper trail. It will come back to feast on your ass like a rabid hyena on a slow, fat kid.

As far as one's arrogance leading to digging a hole for one's self, Brett Favre is quickly making himself into the second coming of Terrell Owens.

Evidently he spoke in vague generalities while accusing Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy of not being honest with him. The Packers GM and Coach responded with specifics as to repeatedly asking Favre back.

As near as I can tell, Favre was upset that Thompson a) failed to re-sign two of Favre long-time protectors along the line, opting instead for youth along the O-line, b) failed to land Randy Moss in a trade, refusing to mortgage the future of the team in so doing. In essence, Favre doesn't trust Thompson because Thompson wants Favre to be a quarterback, and not do his general managing job for him. Go figure.

Now, Favre is "tempted to call their bluff," but is unwilling to file the paperwork for reinstatement until it wouldn't cost him any money to avoid mandatory minicamps and to just come into training camp - where he could, effectively, be disruptive.

The funny thing, in his effort to create public support, all he has done is alienate even the majority of Packer fans. A recent show of support for the NFL's least wanted man outside of Lambeau drew fewer than 200 fans.

And, often times, those who are supporting Favre are not only blinded by their hero-worship, but evidently aren't as knowledgeable as people like to say Packers fans are supposed to be - as demonstrated by this recent letter to Mike Silver -

“Your article about making the hard call in Green Bay shows why you write for a living and are not in football operations. If Green Bay’s GM dumps a proven Pro Bowl QB over QB who hasn’t proven anything he won’t be a GM for long.”

Ken Biddle
Philadelphia

Let's see -

Daryle Lamonica was replaced by Kenny Stabler, and he was replaced by Jim Plunkett. Nobody was complaining about Al Davis' personnel moves in the early 1980's

Joe Montana was traded in favor of Steve Young who wasn't showing a whole lot in Tampa. Sure, the 49ers brain-trust caught some flak when they traded Montana, but three Super Bowl trophies later, no San Fran fan is saying that it was the wrong move.

And, of course, within the last decade the Patriots dropped pro-bowler Drew Bledsoe for an unproven sixth round draft pick. Three Super Bowls (two trophies later), none of the Pats fans are calling for Scott Pioli's head.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

For the fans

I used to watch the All-Star game.

I still remember back in the late 1980's when Dwight Evans made his last one. Late in a close game, Evans was in right with speedster Tim Raines on third. Evans charged hard on a sinking liner as Raines cheated up the line, waiting for his chance to break on the ball. The rock hit the ground about a step in front of Evans and Raines broke. Dewey played the ball cleanly and fired, as he did many a time from Fenway's eastern-most lawns, a heat seeking laser.

Raines stopped after two steps, and walked back to third, watching the throw.

He knew.

I remember actually being excited about the All-Star game. Watching people at or close to the top of their game. Sure, there was the occasional player who really didn't belong. But most of the time these were the guys.

Then, somewhere along the way the players stopped taking it seriously and baseball worried about their cash cow - a meaningless game intended to maximize viewership and minimize other real costs associated with the 162 game drag of a season. They wanted us to believe that it was about the fans, want us to still believe - that tickets to an event with no real impact and stars appearing for an inning or two at a time selling for hundreds of dollars is about us and not their bottom line. That a voting process that doesn't allow for the best shortstop this year to be starting, or a catcher batting under .220 is a good thing for the game.

It's not.

It's not a good thing for the game, and it's not about anything other than the corporation that is Major League Baseball finding another way to line their pockets.

I, for one, would be happy to see the MLB All-Star game go, as well as the NFL's Pro-Bowl. Just do the all-pro lists, keep the fan voting away from it and call it good. Just stop telling me that this annual ritual in money grubbing and the fans, as it is only the soft-minded fan that really believes this game is about him or her and not about lining the corporate pockets.

Before I sign off for the evening, I would like to note that I was going to touch on the Brett Favre cluster-fuck, but I think that no one out there has addressed this better than Paul Zimmerman at si.com.

Friday, July 11, 2008

Never.

Never.

It's an absolute. There is no wiggle room.

And, by the time I had reached my 34th birthday, there were certain Nevers in professional sports that I had concluded would fail to happen during my lifetime. I think I stated that right.

For example, after the 2003 post-season collapse, I was certain I was never going to see a Red Sox World Series championship. That wasn't going to stop me from saying at the beginning of every season, "this year's gonna be the year," but there was always that "never" sitting in the back of my head.

Sure, there are gonna be those people that say the true fans would never give up hope, but after 30 years of fandom as a hard-core, card-carrying member of the Nation, 30 years of 1975's, 78's, 86's, 88's, 90's, 96's, and a deep and abiding knowledge of what came before, it was like 30 years of being a faithful dog getting kicked. Hard. Eventually that seed of doubt was going to take hold and cling like a spider-monkey afraid of heights. 2003 was the final straw, 2003, when Pedro was left on the mound too long was when "never" set in.

Too many years of Mookie Wilsons and Bill Buckners and Bob Stanleys and Calvin Schiraldis. Too many times when the team crapped out against immortals like Dave Stewart, or shot themselves in the foot with bizarre managerial decisions from the likes of John McNamara or Grady Little.

Something had to give.

It was so bad that I turned off game four of the 2004 post-season series against the Yankees sometime around the seventh inning. Down three games to none, I was convinced the series was over, and didn't want to subject myself to that sort of pain.

While the cynic still resides in me somewhere, it's not quite as apt to surface the way it once did. At least, not with the Sox.

I bring all this up, because it appears that the Rooney family, as close to royalty as the NFL gets, is shopping around their shares in the Steelers.

There are certain absolutes that I expect in professional sports, and one is that the Rooneys would always own the Steelers, just as I expect the Yankees will always be in The Bronx, The Packers in Green Bay, and that Los Angeles will always be a tough sell in regards to getting hard-cores into the ball-parks/football fields and getting the people to stay in the stands until the end of the game.

The Rooneys looking to sell their shares in the Steelers...well, that's enough to make me rethink a lot of the other stuff.

Thursday, July 10, 2008

Taking five between freelance

I'm in the middle of an editing assignment after cranking through deadlines for an article on an upcoming blues festival and one for my usual gig with the Mid-Atlantic Brewing News, both of which were due on Tuesday. Right now I'm editing a press release for a DC area financial firm, and I needed five or ten minutes to decompress from the financial terms and occasional government speak that permeate the piece I'm working on.

So, just some quick observations -

  • Were the Twins pitchers aware that they were not throwing batting practice? Sox hitters, overall for that final game of the series, batted .500. The only Sox player without a hit was rookie Jeff Bailey who was pinch ran and took over in left field (take Bailey's one at bat out of the equation and the Sox hit .511 and the next worst in-game average is Brandon Moss' 1 for 5, .200 performance). At the other end of the spectrum was Jacoby Ellsbury who hit a gaudy .667, leading a contingent of players that include Kevin Youkilis, Manny Ramirez (way to bust that slump), and Sean Casey, who hit at least .600 for the game.
  • Making the 23-hit assault even more amazing for the Sox is the fact that Twins pitchers walked only two during the game and the Sox only left seven men on base. The Twins, on the other hand, left 12 men on base.
  • If someone had told be before this homestand that both Jon Lester and Josh Beckett were going to give up five earned a piece, I would have said the Sox were going to lose at least one of those.
  • The Red Sox now stand only two games behind the Rays. With the Rays on the road tonight, and emulating the Sox "great at home, suck on the road model," there's every chance that the Sox will be starting their series against the Orioles only one-and-a-half back.
  • Speaking of the Rays, their final game of the two-game set against the Yankees in the Bronx was Mustache Day, with the Bombers giving away porn-staches to their patrons in honor of their best offensive force - Jason Giambi. I can't help wondering if with the 'staches, they gave away little vials marked, "steroids."
  • On an off-the field note, letters to writers like the majority of these tend to sadden me, and sometimes anger me. A quick background - Yahoo! writer Tim Brown wrote a piece on Kim Ng and her chances at a GM position. Some of his responses were like this -
  • Of course, she played shortstop all those years in Montreal and the outfield for the Marlins, sure she’s qualified. As soon as she can play in AA she can make those decisions. She has just as much an idea as I do what it’s like to play in majors. Please, as a Diamondbacks fan, I hope the Dodgers give her the job next week!

    Scott
    Los Angeles

    As a Diamondbacks fan, you probably also know your GM (Josh Byrnes, who is one of the bright and creative minds in the business) didn’t play professional baseball.


For my money, I don't give a rats ass if my team's GM is male, female, a multi-sexual alien from the planet Playtex, a former hooker, or a handicapped, left-handed monkey with libertarian leanings and communist parents. Hell, I'll even live with one whose last name is Steinbrenner, as long as they can evaluate talent and put together a winning team. Anyone that puts any weight on any other factor than the concept, "can the person put together a winning team," is a moron.

And the idea that they had to play on a professional level like this idiot intimated, is beyond the pale. Theo Epstein, Brian Cashman, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Bill Parcells, Jerry Jones, Bill Polian, and Rays GM Andrew Friedman never got paid to play their respective sports professionally. And that's just a small segment of talent evaluators that never drew a paycheck to play the sports they're involved in. Then there's the flipside - Kevin McHale, Isiah Thomas, Matt Millen - all Hall-Of-Fame players, with only McHale coming close to putting together a contender as GM's (and he's put together six of thirteen seasons of teams that went .500 or worse).

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

The Conversation

Anyone that saw the Sunday night broadcast of the Sox-Yanks game was privy to the following -

ESPN's Peter Gammons said on Sunday night's Red Sox-Yankees game broadcast that the Red Sox have had "internal discussions" about Barry Bonds, but he considers a workout for the 43-year-old free agent unlikely. Red Sox pitcher and vocal Bonds critic Curt Schilling, who is out for the season, Monday morning on Boston sports radio station WEEI called the possibility of Bonds coming to Boston for the stretch run "three months of a PR nightmare." More from Schilling: "That would be an eye-opener for sure. I know Barry said in the past that he hates the city of Boston. I really don't know. I hadn't thought about that one, I didn't think that was on the radar."
Beyond the accuracy of Schill's statement, am I the only one who thinks the "discussion," the team's conversation regarding Bonds went something like this -
Theo Epstein and the Red Sox brain trust are holed up in a room late one night last week on Yawkey Way. Their faces illuminated by their laptops as they scour the scouting reports, looking for a contingency plan given their issues with David Ortiz's wrist.

"Carlos Beltran?" piped up one man from the shadows.

"Maybe," replied Epstein," but I have a hunch that the Mets will want to much. Besides, the man averages almost 100 strike outs per year. Besides, for a guy that's supposed to be a slugger, an average of just under 24 home runs per year for his career...it doesn't really cut it."

"Junior Griffey," asked another.

"The Reds will likely want more in prospects for him than we'll be willing to give. Now his teammate, Dunn...," said Epstein, "let's take a closer look at Dunn, put a value on him as a DH/outfielder. If Papi doesn't come along as hoped, we can probably get Dunn in the line-up almost everyday as a utility outfielder/first baseman/DH."

"We might have some egos to massage in the outfield if we do that."

"We'll cross that bridge if and when we come to it," said Epstein. "Any other ideas?"

"Hey," a voice came from the corner, "Bonds is still available."

The room goes silent as everyone stops to stare at the scout who suggested Bonds.

The man holds a straight face for all of about five seconds before exploding in laughter. The rest of the room followed suit. "Sorry, everybody," he said. "I had to say it."

"Can you imagine the field day the press would have with this," asked Epstein as he regained his composure."

"God, it would be like throwing raw meat to starving dogs," said another. "The fans would march on Fenway like the villagers on Frankenstein's castle."

As the laughter finally reduced to the punch-drunk chuckle of people working just a few too many hours, Epstein again surveyed the room. "Seriously, now, anyone else," he asked. "Damn that was funny."
I See Dumb People...

In my occasional rants about the stupid in sports, I would like to return to Sunday's game against the Yankees. When the Red Sox bullpen was having its fire-sale, coughing up Wakefield's lead like a two-pack smoker with emphysema, a play stuck in my craw. On a play where the ball rolled to the wall in the gap between Coco Crisp and JD Drew - the play that tied the game - there was a slim outside chance (in my opinion), that someone with a strong arm might have been able to make the play at the plate that would have ended the inning, preserving the Sox lead.

Instead, with Drew (who has a cannon for an arm) and Crisp (whose arm is more akin to silly putty) converging on the ball at almost exactly the same time, Crisp called drew off the ball, picked it up, turned, and fired...a ball that skittered on the ground most of the way to the cut-off man.

I understand that the centerfielder is in charge out there, but the player has to know the situation and his own limitations. Crisp had to know that Drew would have been able to get the ball to the infield with a harder, more accurate throw - or if he didn't, he should have.

Part Two -

The Detroit Lions are at it again - ganking the NFL's "Believe in Now" slogan for the upcoming season with the simple alteration to make the slogan a question rather than a statement - "Do You Believe in Now?"

I really think they should do this up like those "I'm with stupid ->" tee shirts which have the arrows pointing in opposite directions so that wearers can walk side by side, "<- I'm with stupid" with the arrows pointing at each other. Except I think the Lions should pair it with a tee shirt, or maybe put this on the back, that says, "Why should I, you dumb f^@% ?"

Nothing says stating a certainty like stating it with a question.

One last note -


Best wishes to Diamondbacks catcher Chris Snyder who fractured one of his testicles last week. I read up on what that "fracture" entails, and out of mercy to my male readers, will not post that here.

However, Mr. Snyder, may you heal quickly and completely.

Saturday, July 05, 2008

What's in a name

I alluded to this in one of my posts during the NBA playoffs. I alluded to the fact that the TD Banknorth Garden is always just going to be the Bahstin Gahden to me.

Always.

The Gahden is the home of the Celtics, the Bruins, and the Bean Pot.

You have the Old Gahden and the New Gahden. But it will never be the Banknorth Garden to me.

Not because I have something against corporate naming of a stadium, but because of some displaced thought that it ruins the game, or some aspect of the game. No, for the most part, it doesn't bother me - sure 3Com Park doesn't have the ring or the charm of Candlestick Park, but people need to remember, corporate naming is not a new thing. Where do they think Wrigley Park got its name? A little reminder - the same company that brought you the chewing gum.

It wasn't always limited to where a team played either.

The Green Bay Packers were named for the Cheese Packing company that owned the team at the very beginning.

The bottom line is some names work - Gillette, Wrigley, Tropicana Field isn't bad - some don't, but aren't bad when shortened, like Lincoln Financial Field's shortened version - The Linc (although some, like Tropicana being called The Trop, I like that). I don't even mind FedEx Field. But this isn't even about that.

I don't mind the corporate name. I really don't.

My problem is that it's just not where the Celtics or Bruins play.

Try, for a second, to imagine the Red Sox playing at SAIC Stadium at Fenway Park, or the Yankees at Merrill Lynch Stadium. It's not that the names are bad, it just somehow doesn't feel right.

Just something to think about.

Thursday, July 03, 2008

No...I haven't been on vacation

Just very, very busy this week.

A little background for those of you who don't know...I worked as a staff writer for a community newspaper in Western Maryland for a couple of years, and have been in journalism either part or full-time since 1996 when the short-lived Boston Chronicle had me covering the Red Sox. That's right - my first professional gig as a writer was covering the Red Sox.

Twelve years later I am a stay-at-home dad and a free-lance writer. That's stay-at-home to a six year old and ten month old (first birthday hits at the end of August).

In that twelve years I have written hundreds of articles, covered everything from board of ed meetings and sports to business and the entertainment industry. Until last year, that was all newspaper writing. Last year I wrote an article on the two-year impact of Supreme Court ruling in Granholm v. Heald on the business of mid-Atlantic wineries (primarily as it pertains to distribution and direct shipping to the consumer). The article was for the trade magazine Wine Business Monthly's Web site.

After a number of months freelancing for some small community newspapers, and doing some Web-editing and writing, this week an article that I wrote on Maryland's surviving drive-in theater hit the stands in Maryland Life Magazine.

Between checking the magazine to see how the article looked in print, I have been teaching Kung-fu at a Chinese cultural day camp for an hour and a half each day for the last two weeks (in addition to the normal classes I teach on Tuesday and Thursday evenings), running the kids to story time at the local bookstore (and other kid-friendly events), and, of course, covering my weekly deadlines for the freelance I'm picking up from the local papers, I have had absolutely no time to blog this week - typically I haven't been able to until night when I am no longer able to organize my thoughts (my wife would argue that's all the time...don't listen to her...really).

One last family note before I get started - my eldest, Aurora, is currently on a Harry Potter kick. She listens to the books on tape every night before bed. Every morning she eats breakfast with me while I try to get some of my writing out of the way. In the background I will have some form of sports playing, whether ESPN, or Fox radio, she (a real girly-girl for the most part) gets a healthy dose of sports.

So she was playing yesterday, my wife tells me, and was well entrenched in Harry Potter land - specifically the Malfoy family (those of you who have read or seen the movies know who they are) along with in-law Bellatrix LeStrange. Suddenly my wife heard my daughter say, "and then Bellatrix yelled, 'oh no! IT's the Patriots! And the Red Sox are with them!"

Yeah...I love my daughter.

Quick thoughts...

  • Good for Roger Goodell, finally saying what everyone out there knows - rookie contracts, particularly for the top ten draft picks are absolutely ridiculous. Making the first draft pick the highest paid offensive lineman in the league without ever seeing if he really can play in the league is the epitome of ludicrous, and a change needs to be made. It should be an interesting negotiation to get that changed, as the Union won't let that happen without a fight - even though many members agree that it needs to change.
  • I think I might amend my earlier sentiment in regards to the Rays. I still maintain there's a lot of youth on that team that could fade down the stretch, but I think the Red Sox made that less likely. It's not the sweep itself at the Trop that's the issue, but the way in which the bullpen coughed up the lead like an emphasymic smoker hacks up wads of phlegm and blood. It was the sort of win for the Rays that can give a young team that might still have some nagging doubts faith that they're in it for the long haul.
  • If the Sox make the post-season this year, it's because Jon Lester became the Man. In his last nine games - games bookended by Lester's 7-0 no-hit win over Kansas and his 7-0 shut-out of the Yankees at the Stadium, the team is 7-2, Lester is 5-1 with two complete games and a 2.52 ERA. That's in spite of one bad outing where he gave up six earned in five innings. Not including that bad start in Houston (which happens to even the best of them) his ERA through the other eight games? 1.94.
  • A little more on the Man - he has won five of his last six decisions. In those six decisions he has a 1.25 ERA and averaged 7.1 innings and had the aforementioned two complete games, the second following the bullpen melt down that lost Daisuke Matsuzaka a win. Second in wins on the team with seven, Lester, not Beckett, has been the anchor in the absence of Matsuzaka, with an ERA less than a tenth of a run higher than Dice's, almost half a run lower than Beckett's and taking over team lead in starts, innings pitched, complete games, and ERA based on a minimum of 86 innings pitched. He might not have started the season this way, but over the last nine or ten starts, he's been an all-star.
  • One thing I can say about this team - they sure know how to pick up the slack. At least everywhere but the 'pen. Matsuzaka goes down, Lester begins pitching like an Ace, and Justin Masterson pitches well enough to give the team a chance with each outing. Pig Papi goes down, JD Drew has a career month, Jason Varitek tailspins into the worst slump of his career and Dustin Pedroia goes on a tear where he's batting over .500 and nearly hits for the cycle against the Rays, Manny slumps and Youklis finds himself on pace for 100 runs (second time in his career) and 100 RBI's (first time in his career). That doesn't mean he'll get there, but, barring injury, he should finish the season with a career high in runs batted in.
  • I think the real Sid Ponson just stood up. Ponson was acquired once before by the Yankees to disastrous results - In 2006 Ponson appeared in five games for the team with three starts, logging only 16.1 innings, and putting up an inspiring 10.47 ERA. It should be interesting to see if the Yankees, who are desperately short of quality starting pitching (the leading ERA among qualifying starters - Mike Mussina's pedestrian 3.87. None of the other qualifying starters has an ERA below 4.00), can find a way to rectify this problem. A lot of the ESPN analysts like to say that the issue for the Yanks is offense and not pitching, but the fact is, when most of your starters have ERA's over 4.00, your offense has kept you in a lot of games.
One last note - I recently submitted a tee-shirt design to Threadless.com for consideration. For those of you who don't know, Threadless takes designs that get the highest average score based on votes from Web-heads like us, and prints them up. I appreciate any help my faithful readers can give me in getting higher scores. Anyone who can help me out, click on the link below -

My Threadless.com Submission