It won't play in Peoria

The Peoria Chiefs (Cubs) were at the Dayton Dragons (Reds) last night and the game made the national news. That's almost never a good thing. When minor league teams make the national media, it's either because a player did something particularly unusual (there's the famous highlight of the right fielder literally running through the outfield wall to make a catch), or because the news is bad. More often than not, the big league team doesn't want to see their affiliates' names in the press unless it's in the context of, "Ortiz reported to the Sea Dogs for a rehab assignment."

Otherwise they're looking at news like Mike Coolbaugh's freak death, or Delmon Young's assault of an umpire.

The Cubs can't be happy this morning. And of the two teams, they're the ones that should have the most trouble from today's news. The roots of the incident were summarized in the AP report as -

Dayton pitcher Kyle Lotzkar hit Peoria's Nate Samson with a pitch in the top of the first. In the inning's bottom half, Castillo hit Dayton's Zack Cozart in the head with a pitch. Cozart fell to the ground, was helped to the dugout and didn't return.

Several batters later, Castillo hit Angel Cabrera, who angrily threw his bat and batting gloves toward his dugout before taking first. Dayton's next batter hit an infield grounder, and Cabrera made an aggressive slide into second to break up the double play.

Castillo followed that with a high-and-tight pitch to the next batter, Brandon Menchaca, prompting Dayton manager Donnie Scott to complain to the home plate umpire. Interim Peoria manager Carmelo Martinez came on the field to join the discussion.

That led to an argument between the two managers, and when Martinez pushed Scott, the benches emptied.

All of this led to Castillo, after the benches emptied, throwing a fastball at the opposing dugout which went into the stands and injured a fan. Castillo is currently facing charges for aggravated assault and, if you saw the footage, is likely facing jail time.

I want to dissect what happened here, because a lot of this should never have happened, and almost all of this can be laid at the feet of Martinez, the team's interim manager while Ryne Sandberg is in Cooperstown for the Hall of Fame ceremonies, and the umpires.

Lotzkar was a compensatory first round pick in the supplemental draft. On the season, according to minors.baseball-reference.com he's 0-3 in four starts (16 innings pitched) with a 6.19 ERA, giving up 14 runs (11 earned) on 14 hits, and 15 walks with one hit by pitch (I don't know if that includes yesterday's game) and one wild pitch. Not a pitcher with the best control in the world.

Contrast that with Castillo who has appeared in six games with three starts over 22 innings and put together a 2.86 ERA with 22 hits and 10 walks.

Lotzkar, projected for the same number of innings gives up 19 hits and walks 21. Tell me, which of the two of these guys sounds like they have no trouble finding the strike zone? The one who has less than half the number of walks than hits allowed, or the one who has issued more free-passes than given up hits?

Yet, somehow Castillo hit the first batter in the head, then beaned another and nearly, according to reports, hits a third in the head.

After Castillo hit the first guy - considering he hit him in the head and the player didn't return - the ump should probably have tossed him then. At the very least a warning should have been issued and there's no way Castillo should have still been on the mound after the second batter was hit.

Given that the umps didn't do this, it was certainly understandable that Dayton manager Scott would want to talk to the umpire. What I don't understand is why Martinez felt he needed to be out there. There was no reason for him to be out there.

All Martinez did was escalate the issue, attacking the other team's manager when he shouldn't have been anywhere near the man.

The only way for this to be handled properly - Castillo needs to serve jail time and the Cubs need to can Martinez. I can't help but think that if Sandberg was sitting on the bench, at least some of this wouldn't have escalated the way it did.

If you missed it, here's the ESPN footage -

Land of the Rising Sun

It is a great public relations gimmick.

Send at least one of the league's premier teams from the previous season overseas, or to another country on the same continent to help cultivate the game in a country that's already baseball crazy.

It will be the fifth time since 1999 that Major League Baseball will start its season on foreign soil. In 1999 it was the the 1998 pennant winning Padres taking on the Rockies in Monterrey, Mexico. In 2000 the 1999 NL wild-card Mets, winners of 97 games, played the bottom of the NL Central barrel Cubs in Tokyo. Four years later, the capital of Nippon hosted the AL Champion Yankees against the bottom feeding Devil Rays. In 2001 it was the bottom scrubbing Rangers playing a Blue Jays team that missed the AL East title by a mere four and a half games.

This season it's the World Champion Red Sox opening against an Athletics squad that finished only a game out of last place in the AL West and 20 wins behind the Red Sox. Not exactly a marquee match-up.

But this is less about the match-up than about the impact of opening in a different country.

What does it really mean? Is it difficult for the team's involved to recover from the requisite travel? Or is the impact dependent on the team make-up, the manager, and any number of other factors? The numbers are less than telling.

The Yankees in 2004 got off to a horrible start, struggling in April and May, but recovered to win 101 games.

On the other hand are the 1999 Padres, just a season earlier with 98 wins and an appearance in the World Series, dropped to fourth place and 74 wins when starting the season in Mexico. Their opponents, the Rockies dropped from 77 to 72 wins.

In 2000 the Cubs slipped by two games from 67 to 65 wins, while the Mets still qualified for the wild card with 94 wins, down from their 1999 total of 97 after taking their first at-bats of the season in Tokyo. That same year the Rangers and Blue Jays won 71 and 83 games respectively. The following season, kicking off the season in (I know, technically American soil) Puerto Rico, those Rangers and Jays finished 2001 with 73 and 80 games respectively. An increase for the Rangers, but a drop-off for the Jays.

In 2004 the Yankees matched their previous season's win total, while the Rays increased their win total from 63 to 70 after starting it all in Tokyo.

Eight teams, a variety of results. Nothing telling. One team broke even. Two teams increased their win total by an average of 4.5 games, and five teams slipped a combined total of 37 games. Realistically, the Padres skew that number with a 24 game drop-off. Sixty-two-and-a-half percent of the teams experienced a drop in performance reflected in their win-loss record. The average drop, not including the Padres, is 3.25 games per team.

Assuming this is actually indicative of this season's performance, there's a 62.5 percent chance that the Sox will drop to 93 wins from last season's 96-win showing. Last year that would have put the team a game behind the Yankees in the final standings, and given the Red Sox the wild card.

What any statistician will tell you is that eight teams, eight results in over a century's worth of seasons is not a sampling that is indicative of anything.

Hope Springs eternal

Spring.

It's a time of renewal, a time for new hope. It's when fans of the Cubs and Indians say things like, "this is the year. This year the [insert team name here] are gonna win it all."

On the surface, it might seem a little ridiculous. There are twelve franchises in Major League Baseball that haven't won a World Series for at least 25 years (some of the teams haven't won since their inception as long ago as 1961...the Texas Rangers/Washington Senators). For Cleveland it's been 60 years and this will mark 100 for the Cubs. As the saying goes...when the sun comes up every morning, you come to rely on the fact that it will rise the next morning.

The Cubs perennially seem to find a way to blow their championship opportunities. The Indians haven't exactly fared much better.

Why should these teams, the fans of these teams hold out hope? Fans of the Cubs, Indians, Giants, Rangers, Astros, Brewers, Nationals, Padres, Mariners, Pirates, Phillies, and Orioles will all have differing levels of hope based on personnel, management, and ownership of their respective teams.

The fans of the Cubs and Indians hope to be this season's 2004 Red Sox, breaking a Championship drought that spans generations. Fans of the Orioles hope for a chance, in spite of the past incompetencies of Peter Angelos' ownership.

Why do they continue to hope, in spite of years of heartbreak?

Why, when there are teams that, on paper, that are better? Teams like the Red Sox, Mets, and Tigers.

It's simple really...

It comes down to two things. One is faith.

I've talked before about the religion of sport and the teams being the different denominations. It's no more evident than at the beginning of a season when, in spite of all proof to the contrary, we believe that the team we root for will be the one standing at the end of the season...whether on the diamond, the court, the gridiron, or the rink.

But the second is a little more tangible.

We watch the Red Sox break an 86-year drought to win two World Series titles in four seasons. We watch a Colorado Rockies team that wasn't even supposed to be a contender sweep its way into the 2007 Series. We see a Cardinals team that barely played over .500 ball during the regular season in 2006 win that year's championship.

We see these things and think about our teams, "why not us? Why not this season?" And we believe.

Ultimately, we believe because we're fans.

Go Sox.