Rounding up loose ends...

By now I'm sure anyone who reads this blog is aware that former Patriots receiver Donte Stallworth was involved in an unfortunate incident recently wherein he struck and killed a pedestrian. At this writing charges have not been filed, but given that his blood alcohol level was well over the legal limit, it is only a matter of time.

At the very least this will result in a suspension for Stallworth, and probably jail time. This is the sort of thing that can potentially serve from 5 to 15 years, depending on what they have determined the degree of the offense to be. I expect a deal to be cut that will either allow Stallworth to stay out of jail, or to serve a minimum amount of time - meaning I don't believe he will be found guilty of vehicular manslaughter as provided by the Florida State Penal Code.

And here are five things I think based on what I have seen the last week -

1. For all the injuries the Celtics have suffered, I think they have happened with plenty of time for the Green to get healthy. Once healthy, I think that it was more important for the Cavs to get the one seed than the Celtics. Should the current seeded positions remain constant, I believe we'll see the C's play the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. If the C's steal a game in Cleveland early in the series, then I think the series favors them.
2. I firmly believe that Junichi Tazawa will make his big league debut this season as a back of the rotation/middle reliever.
3. This is a guess, but it seems to me that Theo is giving George Kottaras the opportunity to show the organization that he is the heir-apparent to Jason Varitek. My bet would be, given the glut of pitching prospects in the minors, if Kottaras struggles, or at least fails to even show flashes during the regular season, then and only then will we see a trade with Texas consummated for one of their catchers.
4. I don't think that the Patriots are done with the defensive overhaul - I've said it before and will say it again: Jason Taylor is the most logical and Belichick-ian choice to play opposite Adalius Thomas. He is likely to be signed by the team sometime after the draft and will take less money to go to the Pats just for the chance to win. I also think that Shawn Crable will get a long look in training camp as the future at that same location.
5. I think Yankee fans are going to have a tough April. The team's best early season player, Alex Rodriguez, is likely to miss the first month of the season, CC Sabathia has huffed and puffed his way to a Spring Training ERA that is dwarfed only by his Michelinman-like physique and their big-name in-the-field acquisition, Mark Texiera, is a notorious slow starter (.259 career hitter for the month of April, his next lowest monthly average - .282 in July). I firmly believe this is a team that's on track to be playing catch-up again, and they will be chasing both the Red Sox and the Rays.
   

Cleaning the Junk Drawer, part 2

LaDainian Tomlinson is cooked. Yes, Tomlinson put up respectable numbers, but for the second straight year he broke down at the end of the season and has been the most talented bench warmer in the playoffs.

Each of the last two seasons Tomlinson's yards per rush average has decreased - first by half a yard, and then between this past season and the previous one, a shade under a yard. Tomlinson ran for fewer yards, produced fewer yards from scrimmage and averaged fewer rushing yards per game than at any other time in his career.

Over and above that, Tomlinson might be one of the more overrated running backs...ever. He's a regular season stud, but he's a post season dud.

Consider, for a guy who's supposed to be a game changer, he's come up flat in the big games - in six post-season appearances Tomlinson has averaged 3.6 yards per rush (regular season - 4.4), and only once exceeded 80 yards rushing (123 in a loss to the Patriots). The Chargers are 3-3 in the post season with Tomlinson, but in the team's three wins, Tomlinson has combined to rush for 95 yards (28, 42, and 25) in those three games on 33 carries (2.9 yards per carry). Not exactly an impact player in the NFL's second season.

The current rumor is that Scott Pioli is likely to land the KC position. If that happens, don't be surprised if Josh McDaniels ends up there - or Matt Cassel. It would be kind of ironic if Cassel ends up as the starter for the team that, in essence, launched his pro career, wouldn't it?

I would not be the least bit surprised if all three end up in the same place. The only issue I see is that if it is KC, that Pioli won't want to give up that first round pick because the Chiefs are desperately in need of a stud offensive lineman - unless he believes that the draft is deep enough that he will be able to get someone in the second or third round that can make a difference up front.

What the hell happened to the Celtics in the last two weeks?

I think the American League East is a lot of ifs -

If the Yankees pitching staff stays healthy, they can make the playoffs. Sure, they're likely to have a solid one-two with CC Sabathia and Chien-Ming Wang, but AJ Burnett has a history of injury, as does Joba Chamberlain when he starts (that goes back to before he was drafted - it's why the Yankees were able to get him with the 41st pick). If the Yankees have to rely on Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy for a significant number of starts, they should forget about the playoffs in the Bronx.

If Josh Beckett returns to form, and Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka continue to develop the way they have been, then the Sox have the best staff in the East and should make the playoffs.

If the Rays staff - including the bullpen - repeats the year they just had, they should be the favorites, particularly given the signing of Pat Burrell. Burrell is not a superstar, but he is a solid middle of the order (5th, 6th) sort of batter that will knock in about 90 runs and score about 72 runs in a season.

Speaking of the Yankees - kind of offensive that they go out and commit to over $400 million in contracts and then turnaround and tell the City of New York that they need $300 million more to finish the stadium, isn't it?

As good as the Eagles and the Ravens looked this past weekend, I don't think either team will go all the way, although I give the Ravens a better chance than the Eagles. Philly has a tendency to become too one dimensional. The flip side is that I don't trust the Giants without Plaxico Burress - they just haven't been that great without him.

I'm not saying that the best team is going to win the Super Bowl, but if I were to call it, I would say that the likely winner will be whoever is left standing in the Steelers-Ravens game, as long as the winner of that contest comes out healthy. Were I to rank the remaining teams based on their chances, I think I would look at it like this -

1. Steelers
2. Titans
3. Ravens
4. Panthers
5. Giants
6. Eagles
7. Cardinals
8. Chargers

If I had to venture a guess, the winner will be from the top four listed there and that the Giants will not repeat. Just a hunch.

Midweek Ephemera

Congratulations to the Phillies.

The World Series was kind of a can't lose prospect for me this year. I was born in Philadelphia - the family moved to Boston when I was three - but most of my extended family remains in and around the City of Brotherly Love. I also taught there for five years before moving to Maryland. So, for the friends and family still there - enjoy the win.

As for the Rays - well, it was a good run. It would have been nice, in as much as it would have just been a wonderful metaphorical screw you to the Steinbrenner clan and their free-spending ways if the team with the second lowest payroll in all of baseball had walked away with the championship. And it just would have been made sweeter that the team that plays on Georgie's front porch did it.

Over on the hard-court it was nice to see the Celtics come up with a win on the same day they raised their seventeenth banner to the rafters in the Gahden. I think it was important for them to come out and get the win against fellow Eastern power Cleveland, but mostly, it was nice to see the green-and-white come out rise to the occasion on what was a very emotional night for some of the team. I would right about it more, but I think that Dave over at The Coffin Corner already has it covered.

Don Banks over at SI almost always has a tidbit or two that I hadn't yet put together. In his mid-season report, he noted something very interesting about the Brett Favre acquisition. For all the hoopla surrounding his acquisition, and the optimism about their improvement (at this point last season they were 1-6 as opposed to 4-3), they are, in essence, no better than they were this time last year - third place, trailing the Bills and the Patriots, and one game ahead of the bottom dwelling Dolphins. Sure, they're a lot closer to first than last season, but the Favre gambit has yet to translate into any sort of change in the standings.

With a Brady-less Patriots team, this really has got to be eating at Jets fans.

What's happened to the NFC South? Last season they sent three teams to the post-season, this season only the Titans are on pace to even have a winning season.

Speaking of paces, who do you like most for a winless season - the 0-8 Bengals, or the 0-7 Lions? Personally, I think that it's completely possible that both teams will succeed where so many bad teams have failed in delivering the first perfect season in the annals of sucking. But, hey, I'm just an optimist hoping to view perfection in back-to-back seasons.

Elegy and other things...

Well, it was a good run. They teased me into believing again. They came up just short.

So it goes.

Now, after a good season, the Sox turn their attention to off-season concerns.

Congratulations to Tampa, you earned it. Good luck in the next round.

Over on the Grid-iron...

Does anyone else think that somewhere Drew Bledsoe was watching the Dallas game yesterday with the following thought running through his head - "frickin' pansy. Yo, dough-boy, it's a frickin' pinky - I led the Patriots to two come from behind victories with a god-damned screw sticking out of my index finger. Jesus. They benched me for that wuss?"

The cracks are beginning to appear in Dallas - TO whining, Romo wussing, Pacman fighting, Jerry Jones trading the farm for a horse.

They now stand at 4-3 with only to pushovers, San Francisco and Seattle, left on their schedule. They are behind both New York and Washington in their division, and could, by the time they reach their bye easily be 4-5 and would likely need to go 6-1 over the remaining games just to get into the playoffs. With games against the Redskins, Steelers, Giants, Ravens, and Eagles, I think that's highly unlikely.

Speaking of the Giants, I admit, it looks like I was wrong about them, as I was about the Eagles. I thought the Eagles would be better and the Giants worse. The Giants have responded to the challenge of defending their title this year.

Right now Buffalo is the best team in the AFC East.

How weird is this after the first eight years of the decade - the Chargers, Colts, Jaguars and the Patriots who have combined for 17 of a total 32 possible playoff appearances over the last eight seasons (12 of those between the Patriots and Colts alone who are currently second and third in their divisions and a combined 6-5). The only current division leader/wild card contestant in the AFC that has regularly been at the top of their game along with the aforementioned teams is Pittsburgh at 5-1.

Welcome to Bizzaro-world, NFL style.

With any luck, the Pats go to 4-2 tonight, but I have to honestly say, I don't have any confidence that the Pats defense is going to be able to shut down Denver's high powered attack. This is a New England team that's still searching for its identity since the loss of its offensive leader.

It would be nice if tonight was the night the defense found their stride.

Do you believe?

I have to admit, I reached a point where I thought this team would come up short.

There have been several things this season that I missed.

I thought the Rays would eventually spit the bit. There's nothing wrong with it - it's not unusual for a young team to crack in August or September as the pressures of being in a pennant race for the first time get the better of players that have never been there. It happens.

I wasn't the only one who thought the Rays would wilt in the heat of the race.

To Joe Maddon's credit, every time the team began to show cracks, he said or did the right thing to keep them on track. Every time he settled them down, every time he kept them winning.

This post-season we reached the point where I was positive that the Red Sox were going to be bounced. They weren't hitting - well, not timely hitting. The pitching just wasn't there. Four three and two-thirds of a game they either couldn't hold a lead, or couldn't score a run when they needed to.

The Rays - well they just seemed to be the unstoppable machine.

Suddenly, the moment seems to be getting too big for the young team. They're standing on the precipice of history, and their defense and vaunted bullpen have begun to crumble under the extreme pressure. Errant throws, their relievers fooling no one. It all added up.

The Sox got what they needed out of Beckett. James Shields turned in a solid effort, but it just wasn't quite enough. The Sox got what they needed out of David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Varitek, all of whom accounted for the team's RBI's.

It all added up.

It added up to an evened up series with a winner-take-all game to be played on Sunday night after the Sox were seven outs away from elimination, down seven runs, down three games to one. Sunday they march into the Trop evened up at three after the second biggest post-season comeback in baseball history, and then after taking it to the Rays in their dome - after taking it to the team with the best home record in baseball this year - well, just what might they be thinking in the Tampa locker room?

The champagne was chilled and ready to be popped at the end of game five.

Now the Rays have a front row seat to what the Yankees did in 2004 and the Indians in 2007.

Do you believe?

Damn

"Standing in the middle of nowhere
Wondering how to begin
Lost between tomorrow and yesterday
Between now and then
And now we're back where we started
Here we go round again
Day after day I get up and I say
I better do it again"

-Ray Davies

I said it earlier, and it's worth repeating - I do think that this is the Rays year. The Red Sox starting pitching has looked weak through this series. They just haven't risen to the occasion.

But last night - well, damn.

Like most, by the time we hit the seventh inning with the 7-0 Rays lead, I thought the Rays were going to close it out. Then it happened.

The rookie. The potential MVP. A breakfast cereal, Papi, JD and the Youk.

The offense suddenly came alive, as did Fenway which was more morgue than stadium for the better part of three games.

Contributions came from those who would have been cast-offs if the fans had their way- Drew and Crisp.

They've been here before, the Sox. Lost between tomorrow and yesterday.

And we should know by now to never say die (a long ways from 2003, isn't it?), but it's still a tough road ahead of them. I'm not going to rule them out of this post-season, but I'm also not going to get my hopes too high. They have a monumental task ahead of them in a hostile stadium - to do it again, and again.

Getting ahead of myself

So...

A couple of quick items - What happened in San Diego was just ugly, and the defense has me concerned. More than Castle. Right now Castle isn't significantly different from the 2001 Tom Brady (through six Brady-games they were 3-4 overall, 3-3 under Brady). Unfortunately, I'm not convinced that this defense is as good as the 2001 D. After six games the Pats were 3-3 in 2001.

Things began happening in 2001 that I don't see happening now. The offensive line began to gel back then. It doesn't look like it's even beginning to now, and it suffered key injuries that will slow it down even more. The defense, which sent a message in its game against the Colts that season (what Pats fan can forget the Bryan Cox hit), looks more like the pavement defense of 2002 (constantly getting steamrolled).

For this team to make noise, they need to get better. Particularly on defense. It's how they won in 2001, it's how they need to win now. The division is wide open and the Bills right now are best positioned to get to the second season.

Let's hope they rise to the occasion.

Over on the diamond....

The Red Sox are in a big hole.

No excuses.

The Rays have risen to every challenge the Sox have thrown at them. Every time the Sox crept within striking distance of the division lead, the Rays fended them off. The Sox put them in an early hole with their win in Tampa.

The Sox spit the bit, and I do think this is on Terry Francona, in game two with a two run lead when Josh Beckett had shown inning after inning that he couldn't protect a lead. I'm not calling for Francona's head. He's earned the pass on something like this - more often than not since he's been with the Sox, its worked out for him.

The bottom line is that the Rays are on the verge of their first World Series appearance in team history.

I'm not giving up hope - the Sox had their backs to the wall before (three game to none lead against the Yankees in 2004, down three games to one against the Indians last year...sound familiar) and managed to dig themselves out. Twice, okay. But three times, I have a hard time believing they can dig themselves out of this hole. I won't say it's one of their own making either, because that would diminish what Tampa has accomplished.

It would also diminish what Boston has accomplished.

And neither team deserves that.

Hey, Tampa, if you win, I'll be rooting for you, if for no other reason than the knife in the Steinbrenners' backs that it would be for the second lowest payroll to walk away with the title.

Sometimes you just have to see the beauty in all things.

As for coach of the year, it's hard not to consider Joe Maddon the hands-down winner. He took a team that went from worst and was a perennial joke in the American League East to the verge of the World Series. Even if the Sox somehow manage to pull it off and eliminate the Rays from the playoffs, Maddon deserves the award.

People will argue this, but Francona deserves consideration. Hank Steinbrenner whined about the injuries to the Yankees (somehow $210+ million doesn't buy enough depth to overcome injuries, wow, I guess it just doesn't go as far as it used to), but Francona kept the Sox in the race in spite of no effective number five starter, injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Beckett, not to mention losing JD Drew and David Ortiz for close to a third of the year due to injury, losing Mike Lowell for periods of time to an injury that he continued to try and play through, and dealing with a petulant Manny Ramirez.

He doesn't deserve to beat Maddon, but the only person that deserves additional consideration in the American League is Ron Gardenhire in Minnesota. The fact that the Twins were even in the mix at the end of the season is nothing short of a miracle given the talent that team cut loose in the off-season.

Back

I am back from covering the World Beer Festival in Durham.

I highly recommend the event for any beer fans out there. They hold it at the home of the Durham Bulls - an absolutely beautiful ballpark. We stayed a ten minute walk away at the Morehead Manor Bed and Breakfast. If you ever have reason to be in Durham, I both recommend staying at the B&B and visiting the stadium for a game (season permitting).

Now onto the busy sports news of the last couple of days. I'm going to start with the Pats before I get to the Sox...

I was happy to see the Pats win. There were a number of things that I found encouraging that the team did on Sunday. However, there were times that the offensive line looked overwhelmed, and there were times that the Niners gashed the Patriots in the middle of the defensive line. Those things keep me concerned moving forward.

As does the fact that Cassel has only once thrown the ball away to avoid the sack.

Fairly or unfairly, Cassel will be compared to Tom Brady for the whole season. Unfairly, it will be to the Tom Brady of 2007, not 2001 when Brady, like Cassel, was still wet behind the ears and filling in for an accomplished veteran. I'm not going to make the mistake of comparing him to Brady.07.

No. What I'm going to do is look at what an untested, unproven late round draft-pick does from start to start against what another untested, late round draft pick did when he got his shot.

And the biggest difference between the two? After four appearances, including three starts (for both) Brady had been sacked eight times for 45 yards. Cassel has absorbed 15 sacks for 68 yards - a pace that will get him sacked 60 times during the season (Brady was sacked 41 times in 14 starts/15 games. Even projecting for Cassel's 16 games, Brady still would only have been sacked 47 times). He has to get better at just getting rid of the ball when there's nothing there.

Otherwise, this is how the two compare -

Cassel - 3-1 (2-1 as the starter), 70 of 104 for 707 yards (67.3 completion percentage), 3 TD's, 3 INT's.

Brady - 2-2 (2-1 as the starter and the team was 3-2 overall), 63 of 111 for 664 yards (56.8 completion percentage), 2 TD's, 0 INT's.

Brady's offense had turned the ball over eight times in the four games in which he appeared, to six times for the Cassel led teams.

The other interesting stat lies on the other side of the ball. The defenses in both seasons for the first four games in which they were dealing with the back-up signal caller on offense gave up exactly 79 points. The defense in 2001 forced six turnovers from the fateful Jets game in which Bledsoe injured himself, through to their 29-26 victory over the Chargers (putting the team at -2 in the turnover ratio). This year's defense has forced five (putting this year's team at -1).

As I've said before - I don't expect Cassel to develop into Tom Brady. But I think that Patriot Nation needs to back off. Despite his flaws, and I acknowledge he has 'em and they do worry me, I think we need to be patient with him.

Four of the team's next six opponents make up four of the five worst pass defenses in the league. Throw in a Colts team that seems to be clawing and scrounging for every win it gets, the hardest game between now and week 11 appears to be with the Bills.

If Cassel can guide the team to a 4-2 record during that stretch, not out of the question given the fact that the only team that looks truly dominant right now is playing in the Meadowlands (and I'm not talking about Gang Green), a 7-3 record at game ten puts the Pats in good position for a ten win season, and a likely playoff berth given that the only team in the AFC that looks en route to 12+win potential is Tennessee.

And onto the playoffs...

And so the Red Sox move on.

It seems like they're doing it differently each time.

In 2004 they had to come back from the brink. They did it with veterans - it was Curt Schilling and Derek Lowe and Pedro Martinez. It was David Ortiz, Dave Roberts, Manny Ramirez, Trot Nixon and Kevin Millar. The list goes on, but it was a largely veteran squad of mostly imports that liked to go by the name "the Idiots".

It was appropriate. They were loud, grungy, silly and had a lot of fun.

In 2007 the team absolutely dominated the Angels in the first round, scrapped around with the Indians in the second, winning that series 4-3. In the games the Sox won that round they averaged 10 runs per game while holding the Indians to an average of 2 runs per game. And then the Sox stomped on the hottest team in baseball, sweeping the World Series.

This year the Sox are getting it done with a lot of home-grown talent mixed with mid-season acquisitions. Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Jed Lowrie, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Bay, Mark Kotsay.

This year there are no Colorado Rockies-type teams in the playoffs.

There were the Angels who won more games than any other team in baseball. Three more than the Rays and five more than the Red Sox. They still buy into their own hype, believing they were better than the Red Sox.

Yes, the Red Sox got lucky bounces, and didn't drop balls, and didn't miss the clutch hits - except in game three when they had multiple opportunities to put the game away. They did things that the top teams are expected to do - perform under pressure, make the plays when needed. John Lackey can believe that the Angels are the better team all he wants. It doesn't make it true.

The better team doesn't outright miss getting the glove on routine grounders at short. The centerfielder doesn't pull up and fail to call off the second baseman on a short pop-fly to shallow center, a move that costs the team three runs. The better team's closer doesn't spit the bit in real pressure situations. I could go on, but I won't.

I do want to touch on Jon Lester, though.

He got jobbed out of a win in game four, but that's okay, the team won. Lester has been absolutely dominant in the post season, throwing 22 and 2/3's scoreless innings over three starts. Only one lefty in the history of the sport has thrown more in October - Babe Ruth with 29. Now we're seeing the team head into a potential seven game series against the Rays with a rotation that should see both Josh Beckett and Jon Lester pitch twice if it goes to a seven game series.

While the Rays have been impressive this year, this is new territory for them, but it's old hat for the Olde Town Team. Just because it's old hat, however, doesn't mean it's a sure thing...which brings me to my last thought.

Yes, I want to see the Sox win it all again - but I won't be crushed if the Rays do (I think that the eventual winner of the World Series will come out of the American League). Why, one might ask, wouldn't I be upset at the Rays winning?

Well, I won't lie - I would be disappointed if the Sox didn't make it, but there's a certain poetic MLB flipping of the metaphorical finger to the Steinbrenners should the team with the second lowest payroll in the league walk away with the championship. There's just something beautiful about that. Maybe no more than seeing the Sox win their third in five seasons, but it's still pretty damn good.

Panic in Patriot Nation

There are a lot of Patriots fans out there that don't seem to pay close attention to what's going on around the league, or that even know their history. I know that, for the most part, if you're reading this, I'm preaching to the choir, but I still have to get this off my chest.

After the beat down the Pats suffered at the hands of the Dolphins this weekend, a lot of the fans on the message boards, particularly at the Boston Globe and Yahoo, are calling for the Pats to sign Duante Culpepper. Yeah, the same Culpepper that was having trouble playing his way out of a paper bag when he had the Baltimore power running game behind him. The same Culpepper that is failing to generate interest from Kansas City, Detroit, and Cleveland - all winless teams suffering from poor quarterback play as much as from anything else.

Consider since 2001, as a starter, Culpepper has a record of 30 wins and 44 losses, has started 16 games only twice during that time, has averaged 11.1 interceptions per season (but 17 per 16 games), 15.5 touchdowns per season, and has been sacked 3.2 times per start (to put some of that into perspective - Tom Brady has been sacked an average of 1.8 times per start, or an average of 22.4 fewer times over every 16 game season; and 12.5 INT's per 16 games).

Sure, people aren't clamoring for him to replace a struggling Brady - they're clamoring for him to replace what they perceive as a struggling Cassel. Before you go calling for the head of the Pats back-up, think about this -

Culpepper is not the answer - if you think he is, if he was such an answer, why aren't any other team's looking at him? he's done.

As for Cassel -

a) That game wasn't his fault. he didn't give up 38 points. The defense seldom stopped a team that couldn't win more than one game last year. With the Dolphins far out in front, they were able to load up against the running game and basically dare the Patriots to win on the arms of Cassel.

b) A look at Brady's second game? a 30-10 loss to the dolphins in which he passed for a total of 86 yards, no TD's, no INT's and was sacked 4 times for 17 yards of losses. Cassel passed for 131 yards and a TD (1 int), and was sacked 4 times for 19 yards. additionally, the Brady led pats in that 2001 game lost three fumbles. The Patriots lost only one turnover this past Sunday.

Back in '01, after the team got shellacked, Pats fans just saw another losing season ahead of them with a back-up slogging his way through the season in place of his more accomplished predecessor.

No - Cassel is no Tom Brady, but Brady didn't light it up his first two games as a starter either -

Brady's line through his first two NFL starts...

25 for 47 (53.2 percent completion rate), 254 yards, 5 sacks for 26 yards, no TD's, no INT's.

Cassel -

35 for 54 (64.8 percent completions), 296 yards, 7 sacks for 28 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

If anything, Cassel has had a slightly better first two games than Brady. Be patient.

This and that...

Make no mistake, I want the Red Sox to repeat as World Series champs. However, given Hank Steinbrenner's whining about how divisional play and the wild card give other teams an unfair competitive advantage (yes, the same Steinbrenner whose payroll is roughly $70.4 million higher than the next highest team and $90 million more than the Dodgers that he singled out) I would be perfectly happy seeing the Rays, who carry a payroll roughly a quarter that of the Yanks, walk home with this year's championship.

I would be happy to see the Brewers win, even at the expense of the Sox (not thrilled, mind you), but it would be a nice FU to the way the Steinbrenner family has done business.

Anyone else waiting for the Ford Family to say April Fools, no we really still have Matt Millen as our GM. The fact the man set a new standard for futility as a GM is impressive - particularly in an era that has seen the likes of Carl Peterson of the Chiefs, Jay Zygmunt of the Rams, Bill Bavasi of the Mariners, and, of course, Isiah Thomas of the Knicks. The fact he finagled a contract extension during that stretch is nothing less than puzzling. It never fails to amaze me that Lions fans didn't march on the stadium with torches and pitchforks.

Speaking of puzzling - how did Omar Minaya manage a contract extension in the middle of a second consecutive collapse?

Finally, with all the hits cycling has taken in the last two years, all the suspensions of many of the sport's top talents, am I the only one out there thinking that Lance Armstrong, in spite of his age, should be considered the favorite to win next year's Tour de France? I also suspect, considering he's riding gratis, that this is, more or less, a BIG FU to the French.

The time is now, and other thoughts...

The Rays are getting dinged up - Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford, the team's two biggest offensive threats just went on the DL. Crawford is likely done for the year, and, with a broken wrist, it would be surprising to see Longoria back before the middle of September. The Red Sox, meanwhile, just finished a 4-3 road trip, winning two of three against the bottom of the barrel Royals, and taking two of four from the wild card hopeful White Sox.

What should be encouraging is that the Sox outscored their two opponents 38 - 22. Their big issue on the road this year has been scoring runs.

Jed Lowrie is making if very difficult for the Sox brass to justify keeping Julio Lugo. In fewer than half the at bats, Lowrie is on pace to have 105 RBI's over the course of a 500 at bat season. Lugo is on pace for 42 over the same number of at bats. Add to that the fact that Lugo leads the team with 16 errors, six more than Mike Lowell in only 11 more total chances, and eleven more than fellow middle infielder Dustin Pedroia (in 256 fewer chances than Pedroia), Lugo may have played his way into being a very expensive back up.

On a separate note -

This weekend I finally got to see the Pats-Ravens pre-season game, and here are some of the thoughts regarding that...

Matt Cassel didn't look as bad as his stats line. He wasn't good, but he had at least two completions dropped on him. If he doesn't improve, in over the next couple of games, I think he's gone by opening day.

The Pats brain-trust needs to hope that Brady doesn't sustain any major injuries.

More than Cassel, Chad Jackson has to perform. Jackson was outperformed by Matt Slater, CJ Jones, and even safety Ray Ventrone at the wide-out position.

I don't know that the Ventrone experiment is going to land him on the roster or not, but it's going to be fun to watch during the pre-season.

The team's young linebackers looked good - Jerrod Mayo had a great hit, standing up and stopping the Ravens running back at the line of scrimmage, Shawn Crable was very active, and even Pierre Woods, who really needs to show improvement this year, looked good coming off the edge. If I were to base the linebackers on what I saw in that game, all three of those guys are making the final roster.

Lamont Jordan looked good, but it was mostly against competition that he should look good against. I would like to see more of him against the first and second stringers.

I would like to see less of Billy Yates pretending to be a turnstile at right guard.

I would like to see better pressure from the front four on defense.

Taking five between freelance

I'm in the middle of an editing assignment after cranking through deadlines for an article on an upcoming blues festival and one for my usual gig with the Mid-Atlantic Brewing News, both of which were due on Tuesday. Right now I'm editing a press release for a DC area financial firm, and I needed five or ten minutes to decompress from the financial terms and occasional government speak that permeate the piece I'm working on.

So, just some quick observations -

• Were the Twins pitchers aware that they were not throwing batting practice? Sox hitters, overall for that final game of the series, batted .500. The only Sox player without a hit was rookie Jeff Bailey who was pinch ran and took over in left field (take Bailey's one at bat out of the equation and the Sox hit .511 and the next worst in-game average is Brandon Moss' 1 for 5, .200 performance). At the other end of the spectrum was Jacoby Ellsbury who hit a gaudy .667, leading a contingent of players that include Kevin Youkilis, Manny Ramirez (way to bust that slump), and Sean Casey, who hit at least .600 for the game.
• Making the 23-hit assault even more amazing for the Sox is the fact that Twins pitchers walked only two during the game and the Sox only left seven men on base. The Twins, on the other hand, left 12 men on base.
• If someone had told be before this homestand that both Jon Lester and Josh Beckett were going to give up five earned a piece, I would have said the Sox were going to lose at least one of those.
• The Red Sox now stand only two games behind the Rays. With the Rays on the road tonight, and emulating the Sox "great at home, suck on the road model," there's every chance that the Sox will be starting their series against the Orioles only one-and-a-half back.
• Speaking of the Rays, their final game of the two-game set against the Yankees in the Bronx was Mustache Day, with the Bombers giving away porn-staches to their patrons in honor of their best offensive force - Jason Giambi. I can't help wondering if with the 'staches, they gave away little vials marked, "steroids."
• On an off-the field note, letters to writers like the majority of these tend to sadden me, and sometimes anger me. A quick background - Yahoo! writer Tim Brown wrote a piece on Kim Ng and her chances at a GM position. Some of his responses were like this -

Of course, she played shortstop all those years in Montreal and the outfield for the Marlins, sure she’s qualified. As soon as she can play in AA she can make those decisions. She has just as much an idea as I do what it’s like to play in majors. Please, as a Diamondbacks fan, I hope the Dodgers give her the job next week!

Scott
Los Angeles

As a Diamondbacks fan, you probably also know your GM (Josh Byrnes, who is one of the bright and creative minds in the business) didn’t play professional baseball.

For my money, I don't give a rats ass if my team's GM is male, female, a multi-sexual alien from the planet Playtex, a former hooker, or a handicapped, left-handed monkey with libertarian leanings and communist parents. Hell, I'll even live with one whose last name is Steinbrenner, as long as they can evaluate talent and put together a winning team. Anyone that puts any weight on any other factor than the concept, "can the person put together a winning team," is a moron.

And the idea that they had to play on a professional level like this idiot intimated, is beyond the pale. Theo Epstein, Brian Cashman, Bill Belichick, Scott Pioli, Bill Parcells, Jerry Jones, Bill Polian, and Rays GM Andrew Friedman never got paid to play their respective sports professionally. And that's just a small segment of talent evaluators that never drew a paycheck to play the sports they're involved in. Then there's the flipside - Kevin McHale, Isiah Thomas, Matt Millen - all Hall-Of-Fame players, with only McHale coming close to putting together a contender as GM's (and he's put together six of thirteen seasons of teams that went .500 or worse).

No...I haven't been on vacation

Just very, very busy this week.

A little background for those of you who don't know...I worked as a staff writer for a community newspaper in Western Maryland for a couple of years, and have been in journalism either part or full-time since 1996 when the short-lived Boston Chronicle had me covering the Red Sox. That's right - my first professional gig as a writer was covering the Red Sox.

Twelve years later I am a stay-at-home dad and a free-lance writer. That's stay-at-home to a six year old and ten month old (first birthday hits at the end of August).

In that twelve years I have written hundreds of articles, covered everything from board of ed meetings and sports to business and the entertainment industry. Until last year, that was all newspaper writing. Last year I wrote an article on the two-year impact of Supreme Court ruling in Granholm v. Heald on the business of mid-Atlantic wineries (primarily as it pertains to distribution and direct shipping to the consumer). The article was for the trade magazine Wine Business Monthly's Web site.

After a number of months freelancing for some small community newspapers, and doing some Web-editing and writing, this week an article that I wrote on Maryland's surviving drive-in theater hit the stands in Maryland Life Magazine.

Between checking the magazine to see how the article looked in print, I have been teaching Kung-fu at a Chinese cultural day camp for an hour and a half each day for the last two weeks (in addition to the normal classes I teach on Tuesday and Thursday evenings), running the kids to story time at the local bookstore (and other kid-friendly events), and, of course, covering my weekly deadlines for the freelance I'm picking up from the local papers, I have had absolutely no time to blog this week - typically I haven't been able to until night when I am no longer able to organize my thoughts (my wife would argue that's all the time...don't listen to her...really).

One last family note before I get started - my eldest, Aurora, is currently on a Harry Potter kick. She listens to the books on tape every night before bed. Every morning she eats breakfast with me while I try to get some of my writing out of the way. In the background I will have some form of sports playing, whether ESPN, or Fox radio, she (a real girly-girl for the most part) gets a healthy dose of sports.

So she was playing yesterday, my wife tells me, and was well entrenched in Harry Potter land - specifically the Malfoy family (those of you who have read or seen the movies know who they are) along with in-law Bellatrix LeStrange. Suddenly my wife heard my daughter say, "and then Bellatrix yelled, 'oh no! IT's the Patriots! And the Red Sox are with them!"

Yeah...I love my daughter.

Quick thoughts...

• Good for Roger Goodell, finally saying what everyone out there knows - rookie contracts, particularly for the top ten draft picks are absolutely ridiculous. Making the first draft pick the highest paid offensive lineman in the league without ever seeing if he really can play in the league is the epitome of ludicrous, and a change needs to be made. It should be an interesting negotiation to get that changed, as the Union won't let that happen without a fight - even though many members agree that it needs to change.

• I think I might amend my earlier sentiment in regards to the Rays. I still maintain there's a lot of youth on that team that could fade down the stretch, but I think the Red Sox made that less likely. It's not the sweep itself at the Trop that's the issue, but the way in which the bullpen coughed up the lead like an emphasymic smoker hacks up wads of phlegm and blood. It was the sort of win for the Rays that can give a young team that might still have some nagging doubts faith that they're in it for the long haul.

• If the Sox make the post-season this year, it's because Jon Lester became the Man. In his last nine games - games bookended by Lester's 7-0 no-hit win over Kansas and his 7-0 shut-out of the Yankees at the Stadium, the team is 7-2, Lester is 5-1 with two complete games and a 2.52 ERA. That's in spite of one bad outing where he gave up six earned in five innings. Not including that bad start in Houston (which happens to even the best of them) his ERA through the other eight games? 1.94.

• A little more on the Man - he has won five of his last six decisions. In those six decisions he has a 1.25 ERA and averaged 7.1 innings and had the aforementioned two complete games, the second following the bullpen melt down that lost Daisuke Matsuzaka a win. Second in wins on the team with seven, Lester, not Beckett, has been the anchor in the absence of Matsuzaka, with an ERA less than a tenth of a run higher than Dice's, almost half a run lower than Beckett's and taking over team lead in starts, innings pitched, complete games, and ERA based on a minimum of 86 innings pitched. He might not have started the season this way, but over the last nine or ten starts, he's been an all-star.
  

• One thing I can say about this team - they sure know how to pick up the slack. At least everywhere but the 'pen. Matsuzaka goes down, Lester begins pitching like an Ace, and Justin Masterson pitches well enough to give the team a chance with each outing. Pig Papi goes down, JD Drew has a career month, Jason Varitek tailspins into the worst slump of his career and Dustin Pedroia goes on a tear where he's batting over .500 and nearly hits for the cycle against the Rays, Manny slumps and Youklis finds himself on pace for 100 runs (second time in his career) and 100 RBI's (first time in his career). That doesn't mean he'll get there, but, barring injury, he should finish the season with a career high in runs batted in.

• I think the real Sid Ponson just stood up. Ponson was acquired once before by the Yankees to disastrous results - In 2006 Ponson appeared in five games for the team with three starts, logging only 16.1 innings, and putting up an inspiring 10.47 ERA. It should be interesting to see if the Yankees, who are desperately short of quality starting pitching (the leading ERA among qualifying starters - Mike Mussina's pedestrian 3.87. None of the other qualifying starters has an ERA below 4.00), can find a way to rectify this problem. A lot of the ESPN analysts like to say that the issue for the Yanks is offense and not pitching, but the fact is, when most of your starters have ERA's over 4.00, your offense has kept you in a lot of games.

One last note - I recently submitted a tee-shirt design to Threadless.com for consideration. For those of you who don't know, Threadless takes designs that get the highest average score based on votes from Web-heads like us, and prints them up. I appreciate any help my faithful readers can give me in getting higher scores. Anyone who can help me out, click on the link below -

Mid-season thoughts

Before I get started on the Red Sox and other people in the American League East, I want to touch on 30-year old pitcher Shawn Chacon.

There have been a few comparisons of Chacon's attack on Ed Wade to the Latrell Sprewell/P.J. Carlesimo incident a little over a decade ago. There's a big difference here.

Sprewell continued to have a career after he tried to choke his coach because Sprew was a front-line starter. Chacon, on the other hand...well, take a look...

When his career numbers are looked at, Chacon, at best, is a team's number five starter. In eight seasons, Chacon is 45-61 with a 4.99 ERA (only by the grace of three seasons with an ERA below 5.00). He has only once won more than ten games (11 in 2003), and has had a winning record in only three seasons (11-8, 7-6, 5-4 respectively). This season he was carrying the fourth best ERA of his career at the time of his release with a rousing 5.04 to go with a 2-3 record. Three times his ERA was over 5.70 (5.73, 6.36, 7.11).

All but 14 games of that (a mid-season move to the Yankees) has been in Major League Baseball's hitters' B-League.

With numbers like that, Chacon reacted to a bullpen demotion by trying to choke his GM. With numbers like that and a reaction like that, he'll be lucky to get a gig with another major league team. On most teams those numbers are number 4/5 starter sort of numbers. A front-end guy can afford to be an asshole - Schilling, Clemens, what have you. Those guys can be critical of the front office, because the team needs them. The guy with the career .425 winning percentage...he needs to be the good soldier.

My guess, if Chacon wants to keep getting paid to play baseball, it's going to have to be for an independent league team...either that or he's going to have to get used to saying, "would you like fries with that?"

On Pace...

The Red Sox are one game off of last year's pace with a 49-32 record half-way through the season. Last year they had 50 wins after 81 games.

The big difference - this year's AL East is more the beast that it once was.

This time last year the Sox were dominating the East, 10.5 games ahead of the second place Yankees and Blue Jays, 14.5 ahead of Baltimore and 17 ahead of Tampa Bay. That's an average lead of a little over 13 games over the rest of the AL East.

This season, with 49 wins, the average lead over the rest of an improved AL East is only a little over 5.8 games - half a game over second place Tampa, 5.5 over a resurgent Yankees team, 7 over Baltimore, and 10.5 over the best last place divisional team in the majors, Toronto.

A few basic observations - The Sox are putting up comparable numbers against better competition, a testament to the progression and development of the team's youth movement...particularly in relation to the pitchers. It's been a big part of the difference between the success of the Sox and the arch-rival Yankees.

A few thoughts about the state of the East before I get into the Yanks.

Overall, the Blue Jays, who loaded up before last season, appear to be right where they were this time last year, and I don't see that changing.

the Orioles have made some improvements from last year to this, but are still looking to future years and are likely to begin making moves to bring highly regarded prospects back in exchange for established major league talent. Expect at least one, if not a couple of the players to be traded between now and the deadline.

The Rays appear to be the biggest threat to the Sox at the moment, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them hanging around at the end of the season, vying for a playoff spot. However, I think they're likely to fade in the dog-days of August like many developing teams. Next season, however, they could be truly dangerous.

Which brings me to the Yankees...

The Yankees are making a push, I just don't buy that they have the horses to keep it going. Mike Mussina has been better this year than he has been for a while, and Chien-Ming Wang and Pettitte have been solid, but none have been an ace.

Mussina has been the best of the three with a 3.93 ERA, with Wang and Pettitte coming in at 4.07 and 4.04 respectively. Not exactly dominant.

And then there's the 4/5 positions. The Yankees briefly got some solid starts from Darrell Rasner, but, as I previously predicted, Rasner has come back to Earth. After starting his stint in the rotation 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA through those first four starts, Rasner has gone 1-4 and seen his ERA rise to 4.50. Three times over that span Rasner has given up at least four earned and twice has given up at least six.

Given that Rasner has never, on the Major League level, pitched more than 24.2 innings before this year (52 already), it's likely that he's just going to deteriorate as the season drags on.

Then there's Joba Chamberlain. Chamberlain might, one day, become an ace. He might not. But here's another one that will suffer the more innings he puts up. There will be issues for him as teams see him again, not to mention, as the innings he's not accustomed to pitching rack up.

The Yankees being the Yankees will make it interesting for a while, but in the end, they're going to come up short on pitching, and probably third in the East.

Wind Sprints...

The Red Sox are suffering from Celtic syndrome - they're having trouble buying a win on the road lately. Road Warriors they're not. At least not so far this season.

I've decided that a good knuckleballer is the equivalent of pitching Russian roulette. Sure, a good one wins more than he loses, but there's always that one start that's like the bullet in the chamber.

It was nice to see Manny finally break out of his home run drought. It's a shame that Mike Timlin couldn't help make it count for something.

The Celtics were absolutely brutal in Detroit the other night. I don't think they can afford another game like that in this series - even in a loss as that's the sort of game that will give the Pistons the confidence that they can take the series if it goes to seven.

The good news for the Yankees is that this time last year they had 21 wins and were already 13.5 games back, tied with the Rays for last place as opposed to 25 wins and only 6.5 games back. The bad news is that the Yanks are once again in last and this year they trail the first place Rays.

Speaking of the Rays being in first as we near June and we're almost a third of the way through the season - is that the third, or the fourth sign of the apocalypse?

Vince Young evidently considered retirement at the end of his rookie year, noting that his heart wasn't into the game. Yeah - the guy to whom they handed the keys to the kingdom admitted that he wasn't thrilled by football. He claims to have prayed really hard in order to realize that football was God's calling for him. I don't know about anybody else, but the couple of times that I saw Young play last season, he looked more like the guy whose heart wasn't in it than someone imbued with God's will.

Anyone else out there think that the Dallas Cowboys are a powder keg on the verge of exploding? Terrell Owens' internal clock has got to be ready to hit midnight, they now have Pacman, Terrence Newman recently threw Roy Williams under the bus, and the team made no secret about the fact that Wade Phillips' successor is waiting in the wings.

Recently attended a roller derby event in Frederick. While entertaining, the whole thing appeared to be slower than film I have seen of the sport dating back to the 1950's. Personally, I'm hoping the sport catches on. Nothing quite like a chick in fishnets and roller skates body checking another one in hot pants. I'm hoping that as the women gain experience that the sport becomes faster and more entertaining. Truth be told - I still am not sure how scoring worked.