One liners

So...should we just start referring to PED's as Rocket Fuel?

If Tom Brady picks up at the beginning of the coming season where he left off at the end of 2007, what's the over/under for the first bionic man reference? Week three?

If Peyton Manning struggles, what will be blamed first? Age or the change in coaching staff?

If Brady struggles, what's the over/under on blaming him for coming back from rehab too quickly?

This year's Daisuke Matsuzaka has been more crumbling Dice than tumbling Dice. Take your time figuring it out, and get back when you can.

Is it just me, or are there a lot of morons out there complaining about the value for the dollar with the Dice-man. It's three seasons into a six season contract, and this is the only season that the Dice has come up craps, so to speak.

A Penny saved...if Brad Penny continues on pace, he will have a comparable year to his 2006 campaign with the Dodgers...adjusted for pitching in the batter's A-League of course. For what it's worth, I'll take 14 to 16 wins from my fourth starter.

Am I the only one hoping that Patrick Chung turns out to be a better pick than the last man the Pats drafted with that last name - Eugene Chung?

Should we call him Steroidin' Sammy now?

Yeah, I'd be peeved at Alex Rodriguez if I were Yankee management - fatigue from an operation and playing are one thing, but Jet-setter Lag?

Yup, sometimes it's the trade that didn't happen that determines the fate of a franchise. How about them Apples, NY?

Catching up, yet again

As you might be able to tell, I have been busy lately. I have about a half dozen story proposals or so floating out there with various magazines, have been working on home improvements, looking into going back to a staff position somewhere now that my youngest daughter is closing in on two - all of that has taken away from my time here at TAF. There have been a lot of things to comment on that have come and gone in the five days since my last blog post. Here goes...

Overall, I have no vested interest in the NHL finals and little more than that in the NBA finals this year. At least if Carolina had made it to the Stanley Cup round of the post season on the ice, then I would at least have a former New England team to root for, but we have the Penguins and the Red Wings. Eh.

Over on the hardwood...well, let's just say that the entirety of my interest there would be in seeing the Lakers lose. I don't think it's going to happen now that Los Angeles is up 2-0, but I would love to see them lose.

The Lakers are one of those teams that I love to see lose, they're up there with the Yankees, Cowboys, and Raiders. Being a Patriots fan, some might be puzzled that I haven't picked division rivals like the Jets and Dolphins, or even the rival Colts, but there's something different with them.

If the Raiders went 0-16, I would enjoy that, and while I kind of rooted for the Dolphins to match that mark two seasons ago (but only when they were in the 0-13 territory), I much prefer it when the Jets and Dolphins are decent for a couple of reasons - one: better games. Two: I much prefer seeing those teams come close and get knocked out at the hands of the Patriots then to watch them struggled and be eliminated from contention before Halloween.

Speaking of football, I didn't like Peyton Manning's public criticism of the new coaching regime. I don't know if it was more a reflection of the new staff still finding its feet, or a reflection of how spoiled Manning has been due to virtually no coaching defections during his career. In theory, there should be little to no change in how the Colts play the game since the entire coaching staff was there under Tony Dungy, but there's no telling if Pete Metzellars is going to be as good at coaching up line men as Howard Mudd - yes, he did well in the middle of the year taking over for Mudd when Mudd was dealing with health issues, but how does he do starting with a free-agent rookie from scratch like Mudd did with Jeff Saturday? He may be fine, but we just don't really know.

On top of that, the team has new coordinators for pretty much the entire team - offense, defense, and special teams. The play calling will be different. Maybe better, maybe worse.

My guess is that the team shows some growing pains, but they miss the playoffs as a ten or eleven win team, finishing behind the Titans again in their own division.

The Colts enter the season not unlike the Patriots. While the key question for the Colts is "how the is the coaching staff going to perform," the Pats are rolling the dice on the rebuilt knee of their all-pro quarterback. If Brady can play without the knee getting into his head, he should be the same guy they've always had back there. With a very likely revamped and improved Jets defense in week two, the Ravens defense in week four and the Titans and Bucs all in the first seven weeks of the season, fans of the Patriots will find out quickly if Tom Brady is thinking about the knee, or about completing passes.

While the Pats defense was shaky last season, I'm less concerned there based on the moves the team has made, leaving the biggest question on the offensive side of the ball.

Over on the diamond I can't say that homer that David Ortiz had gave me any sort of hope that he's breaking out of that power slump. Big Papi just barely cleared the wall right at the Pesky Pole. In any other ball park that hit is a long single or maybe a double, but certainly not a home run.

Jon Lester's near no-no, however, might be cause for hope. I'm still reserving judgement on the Sox lefty for at least another two starts (he's failed to put together more than two good starts in a row, in spite of leading the team in innings pitched), before I say that he's turned the corner, but things have been encouraging lately.

Through his first eight starts Lester was 4-2 with a 6.51 ERA. He bottomed out in starts five and six, pitching a total of ten innings while giving up 13 earned runs over the two games. It was his worst two game stretch of the year, beating out his first two starts in which he pitched eleven total innings while giving up eleven earned runs.

In the four starts since, Lester has pitched 27.1 innings, gone 3-1 with three quality starts, all the while logging a 2.64 ERA. His next best four game stretch ran from his start on April 19 and ran to May 4. During that stretch he went 2-0, and gave up 10 earned runs over 26 innings for a 3.46 ERA. Like the recent stretch, Lester had three of four quality starts. So, yeah, I'm going with a wait and see approach on the Sox lefty.

While Lester has certainly had his issues this season, and almost all of the pitchers have faltered badly at one time or another, they have all been better than Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has struggled in just about every outing.

For all of Lester's issues, the Left is averaging 6.1 innings per start. Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett are also averaging 6.1 innings per start. Even the oft maligned Brad Penny is pushing 5.2 innings per start, an average that would be higher were it not for two rough starts in his first three of the season in which he pitched for a grand total of 5.2 in those two starts. The Dice-man? Just a shade under 4.2 innings pitched per game. Yes, that includes a one inning/five-earned run fiasco of a start, that without he is averaging 5.1 innings per start and still has the highest ERA of the starters at 5.88.

While Matsuzaka's stats, sans the one terrible start, is only slightly higher than Brad Penny's 5.85 (overall), and slightly lower than Penny's IP per game, it might do better to look at the number of quality starts each of the Sox starters has turned in...

Matsuzaka - 0 for 6_00.0%
Masterson - 2 for 6*_33.3%
Lester - 6 for 12_ 50%
Penny - 6 for 11_54.5%
Wakefield - 7 for 11_63.6%
Beckett - 8 for 11_72.7%

*One note on Masterson's six starts - his first two starts he failed to go a full six innings, both times leaving after only 5.1 innings, but also leaving the game after giving up only one earned run. During Masterson's run of six starts in place of Matsuzaka, Masterson was 2-2 with a 4.59 ERA while averaging just under six innings per start. How long do they go with Matsuzaka in an effort to let him get his feet before they make a switch to Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden or someone else? How much time does their monetary investment in the Dice-man buy him?

Observations after a politically busy week

No one has mentioned this, even though it was often mentioned as a possibility when Roger Clemens was at the forefront of the news for a slew of stupid decisions, but W has left office with a bare minimum of presidential pardons. The Rocketman's name wasn't on that list. And the Grand Jury investigation continues.

Can't help but think that, in the end, Rusty Hardin figured on a pardon from Bush, a long-time friend of the family. Also can't help but think that Clemens is pretty well screwed now. I wonder what the strategic move is now?

I think one of the more compelling story-lines through to the Super Bowl is going to be that part of Bill Cowher's brain-trust - Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm scheming against players that they coached for years.

I still like the way the Red Sox are going about business this off-season. I have to say that the Yankees just seem like they're doing more of the same - blowing big dollars on guys that had great contract seasons, but, for the most part, have questionable histories in regards to being real impact players.

Dave over at the Coffin Corner has an interesting post about Mayor Daley in Chicago lobbying the NFL for a second franchise in the Windy City. My theory is, in spite of all the Bear-love that the citizens have for the hometown team, that Daley senses a dissatisfied undercurrent running through the voting populace there in how the Bear ownership runs their team - there is a definite sense that they run the Bears as though they were in a small market.

I can understand the fan-base's frustration, if this is indeed the case, given the fact that Chicago is the second largest television market in the NFL, and third overall. The only top ten television market in the United States without an NFL team is Los Angeles - and, as much as the NFL wants a presence in that market, teams have just not worked out there.

Ironically, even though the Bears play in the second largest media market in the NFL, they're ninth in team valuations according to Forbes. The top three, in order, are Cowboys, Redskins, and Patriots - the sixth, seventh, and eight largest markets respectively in the NFL. The sixth and seventh most valuable teams on the list - the Texans, and the Colts - the 10th and 22nd largest media markets in the NFL respectively.

While Bears management hasn't been as brutally bad as say San Francisco, the league's third largest market, now hosting two of the league's three least valuable teams, one has to question what Jerry Jones, Bob Kraft, and Daniel Snyder know that the McCaskey family doesn't. Even the value of the Jets breaks the top five in the NFL.

Obviously, there are revenue streams that exist that the McCaskey's have never figured out how to tap, and they use that as an excuse.

Quick hits during a busy week...

It's about time that Jim Rice got into the Hall of Fame.

There have been many who were detractors, trying to compare him unfavorably to other players or Hall of Famers - seldom comparing him to the peers with whom he played. From 1975 through 1986 - a twelve season stretch - Rice led the AL in total games played, at bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging average, total bases, extra base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.^[3] Among all major league players during that time, Rice was the leader in five of these categories. In five categories he was better than anyone in the game - better than Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson, Carlton Fisk, Tony Perez, and any other Hall of Famer from that era.

Detractors like to point to his defense, and talk about the advantage he had playing in Fenway's short left, forgetting that the Green Monster wreaks havoc with visiting outfielders. The Monster both giveth and taketh away - defensively it's more difficult than people remember when it comes time to vote for the Hall. They also forget that Reggie Jackson was brutal in the outfield. Additionally, Rice was a six-time top five candidate for the MVP during that 12 season stretch, including a win in 1978. Jackson was a top five candidate five times over a 12 season stretch and hit 100 RBI's or more only six times over a 21 season career. Rice - eight times.

Yes, Jackson was a monster in the post season, but Rice was better than most people give him credit for - in 1986 he also scored 14 runs and drove in six. The 14 runs Rice scored is the fifth most recorded by an individual during a single year's postseason play.

Jackson was inducted in his second year of eligibility. It took Rice 15.

It's a shame they took this long to get it right.

For the Birds...

So - if anyone had told me, pretty much at any time in the last couple of weeks, that the NFC Championship game would come down to Arizona holding court against Philly, I would have laughed hard enough to give myself a hernia. Philly I figured could make it that far, even though I believed it to be unlikely, but the Cardinals? Anyone else notice any signs of an impending Apocalypse?

Elsewhere around the NFL...

I was a little surprised by Josh McDaniels choice to go to Denver. Lately it's a situation where it seems like the inmates are running the asylum. I figured that there was every possibility he would end up wherever Scott Pioli did.

Rumors are that Terrell Owens might be on the chopping block in Dallas. Wonder where he ends up if that happens. Oakland, maybe?

Good luck in your next line of work Tony Dungy. I gotta admit, I thought he'd be back for one more season. It should be interesting to see what happens in Indy next season.

Wrapping things up

It's been a Helluva season in the NFL this year.

Gonna start with my beloved Patriots.

They lost a lot this season. They lost their quarterback, their safety, their signal-calling-linebacking leader, their running back, and a slew of supporting characters. And, ultimately, they lost in their bid for a playoff spot.

I'm not going to complain about the Chargers making it. Teams play the hand they're dealt, and the AFC East was tough this season. The West wasn't. Complaining about the Chargers making it would be hypocritical and disingenuous of me, given the blasting I gave "Hammering" Hank Steinbrenner over his whining about the Dodgers making it, in spite of the Yankees having a better record.

The Pats had plenty of chances to take care of business during the season and fell short - they were blown out of the water by a high school formation being run by the Dolphins in September; they had a three point loss to the Colts with a chance to tie it up late, only to get a personal foul that killed a potential game tying or winning drive; the defense failed to stop Brett Favre on a third and fifteen in overtime.

Win anyone of those and the Pats aren't looking for help Sunday, they win the division outright.

I'm not going to spend anymore time on that. What I will dwell on are the positives.

The Patriots found a guy that has potential to be a franchise quarterback. They saw strong performances from defensive rookies Jonathan Wilhite and Jerrod Mayo. Mayo started strong and Wilhite finished strong. The team began generating a pass rush late in the season with increased playing time for Mike Wright, Jarvis Green, and LeKevin Smith. The team found their running game, rushing for 628 yards over their last three contests. Before the injury, Pierre Woods looked more solid than he had ever been, and Gary Guyton looked like a keeper.

A lot of this gets the team a lot younger on the defensive side of the ball, and gives them a lot of flexibility in regards to what they want to do on that side of the ball going into next season.

When I've really had an opportunity to digest the Patriots' season, I will go over how I see the team going forward...now for the rest of the league...

Crush and burn...

This season has been a long, strange trip in which we learned a lot about a lot of teams - we learned who had heart, who was heartless, who was horrible, and who just plain didn't have balls.

Let's start with those who crashed and burned...

The Cowboys, Jets, Broncos, Redskins, Bills, and Buccaneers all were thought to be locks for the playoffs, or to at the very least challenge for them, at one time or another during the season. At the beginning of the season all the pundits thought that the Cowboys were the most talented team in the NFC East. Six games into the season the Bills were thought to be a lock, running away from the the AFC East before crashing hard to earth; later the Jets were the best team in the division before Brett Favre became color blind, throwing more completions to the guys in the other jerseys than he did touchdowns. In one game the Buccaneers defense aged before our eyes and never recovered, the Broncos showed us they were ready to be sold to the glue factory and the to say the Redskins became one-dimensional once Clinton Portis was injured would be generous.

We learned that Tony Romo might be the most over-hyped quarterback in the NFL, that Brett Favre wasn't the answer, and that all of those teams were soft and lacked heart when it was needed most.

Props to the Detroit Lions who completed only the second perfect 16 game regular season - their record will live in infamy and as a standard against which football futility will be measured. The team has now lost 17 straight going back to last season, putting them nine games behind the Buccaneers 26 game losing streak spanning the 1976 and 77 seasons. Of course, the Bucs were an expansion team. The Lions just suck. Even if they win a game within the first nine next season to avoid tying or beating the Bucs mark of futility, all they have to do is lose the first game to have the distinction of being the only team to have a losing streak span three consecutive seasons.

Then there was the just plain bad - and that covered a lot of teams. The Browns were a mess, as were the Bengals, Jaguars, Raiders, Chiefs, Seahawks, and Rams. These teams struggled as much with injuries (Seahawks, Chiefs, Jags, Bengals, Browns) and bad coaching (Rams, Raiders), as they did with boneheaded front offices (Raiders, Browns).

Just above them were the teams that fought their way to mediocrity, or underachieved into the same - the 49ers, Bears, Packers, Saints and Texans all ended up there usually due to some shortcoming on the team such as the Packers and Saints poor defense, or the Bears erratic offense.

Later I will hit on the playoff teams and the recent baseball developments.

Random thoughts around the league

So, I was really wrong about the Eagles.

Boy, how Andy Reid's star has fallen. The one time offensive genius is getting slammed for a lot of stupidity, and deservedly so. Reid has assembled a team with no power back, which means third and one might as well be third and ten, and he has learned absolutely nothing from his success from the times he managed to win sans Donovan McNabb.

Reid, in the last couple of years, has had his greatest success by increasing the team's number of rushing attempts to have a, or close to a 50-50 split with passing plays. But every time he has McNabb under center, that ratio jumps to a minimum of 60 percent passing plays, if not more.

For a coach that's supposed to be as bright as Reid, it amazes me that he hasn't figured this out. It's like he's channeling Mike Martz.

I've gotta tip my hat to the Jets. They've gone on a damn fine run. Were it not for the flip of a coin, we might be looking at a flip in the standings between the Jets and the Pats.

The Jets are playing some of the best ball of the year, but I still say that right now the Titans are the team to beat in the AFC.

As good as the Cardinals have been, I think they're one and done in the playoffs. I'm not saying they can't make some noise, but they've struggled a bit against the better teams.

If the season stopped now, the Dallas Cowboys could potentially be the biggest disappointments in the league. They would be completely out of the playoffs. Currently they're behind the Panthers, Redskins and Falcons, in that order, for the NFC wild card.

With games against the Giants, Steelers and Ravens coming up, it's entirely possible that the Cowboys could top out at nine wins and miss the playoffs.

Rooney

Named for Dan Rooney, owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Rooney Rule came into being in 2003. The Rooney Rule came about in an effort to level the playing field for minority candidates for head coaching positions. In essence, the rule mandates that any team that has an opening for a head coaching position must interview at least one minority candidate.

While I'm not really thrilled by the rule in general, it doesn't really bother me either. It has definitely generated results. According to Wiki, "At the start of the 2006 season, the overall percentage of African American coaches had jumped to 22%, up from 6% prior to the Rooney Rule."

However, there's a fine line between effective and stupid. And this is stupid.

To sum up, the Rams submitted a contract extension for Jim Haslett to the league. The extension was contingent on Haslett reaching a certain number of wins and he would remain the team's head coach for "X" number of years.

The league rejected the contract, saying that the team was trying to circumvent the Rooney Rule.

Huh?

He's already the team's head coach. There is no opening, unless he fails to perform - which is true for any coach.

If they want to argue that he wouldn't be coach at the end of the season, then what I want to know is how this is any different than what the Cowboys or the Seahawks did in writing into the contracts of assistant coaches that they would succeed their current head coaches. I mean, it's not like they're requiring either of those teams to comply to the Rooney Rule in order to fill the spot once Wade Phillips and Mike Holmgren are done.

So, why is what the Rams are doing any different?

This is just one of those things from the NFL executive offices that just doesn't smell right.

Consider - if Haslett has a decent season with the Rams, and everyone knows that he's their man, what coach, in his right mind, is going to debase himself by interviewing for an opening he knows doesn't even exist?

This is just idiotic.

Elegy and other things...

Well, it was a good run. They teased me into believing again. They came up just short.

So it goes.

Now, after a good season, the Sox turn their attention to off-season concerns.

Congratulations to Tampa, you earned it. Good luck in the next round.

Over on the Grid-iron...

Does anyone else think that somewhere Drew Bledsoe was watching the Dallas game yesterday with the following thought running through his head - "frickin' pansy. Yo, dough-boy, it's a frickin' pinky - I led the Patriots to two come from behind victories with a god-damned screw sticking out of my index finger. Jesus. They benched me for that wuss?"

The cracks are beginning to appear in Dallas - TO whining, Romo wussing, Pacman fighting, Jerry Jones trading the farm for a horse.

They now stand at 4-3 with only to pushovers, San Francisco and Seattle, left on their schedule. They are behind both New York and Washington in their division, and could, by the time they reach their bye easily be 4-5 and would likely need to go 6-1 over the remaining games just to get into the playoffs. With games against the Redskins, Steelers, Giants, Ravens, and Eagles, I think that's highly unlikely.

Speaking of the Giants, I admit, it looks like I was wrong about them, as I was about the Eagles. I thought the Eagles would be better and the Giants worse. The Giants have responded to the challenge of defending their title this year.

Right now Buffalo is the best team in the AFC East.

How weird is this after the first eight years of the decade - the Chargers, Colts, Jaguars and the Patriots who have combined for 17 of a total 32 possible playoff appearances over the last eight seasons (12 of those between the Patriots and Colts alone who are currently second and third in their divisions and a combined 6-5). The only current division leader/wild card contestant in the AFC that has regularly been at the top of their game along with the aforementioned teams is Pittsburgh at 5-1.

Welcome to Bizzaro-world, NFL style.

With any luck, the Pats go to 4-2 tonight, but I have to honestly say, I don't have any confidence that the Pats defense is going to be able to shut down Denver's high powered attack. This is a New England team that's still searching for its identity since the loss of its offensive leader.

It would be nice if tonight was the night the defense found their stride.

The Dog Days and the NFC North

In recent years this series - Sawx-Yanks - in the dog days of August has meant a lot to the complexion of the American League East. It has played a part in determining the East Champ, and even the Wild Card contender. It's where the wheels came off of the Sawx in 2005.

It's where the Sawx gave Yankees hope for the division last season.

This year it's less about the division than who ends up out of the playoffs. Nothing is written in stone, and both the Yankees and Sox have looked a little cooked lately, while the Twins have surged recently. Granted, the Sox were looking a little cooked at the beginning of
September last season, dropping five of their six to the Yanks in August and September and look what happened there.

But let's face a few basic facts - a month ago the Sox were by themselves as the wild card entrant if the season ended then. Now the margin of the Twins is smaller than the space between the Sox and the division leading Rays - who have added games between the two teams in the last month. The Sox still have a chance to pull it off - even the division - but the team has to play better ball of the next month than they have for the last month.

Needless to say, it's gonna be one hairy September in the Hub of the Universe.

And onto the gridiron...

The NFC North - Something feels weird about this division. It's filled with teams that all have issues, fatal flaws if you will, in regards to their aspirations to a Lombardi Trophy. All have an issue at a key position - quarterback - and some have issues that go deeper.

4. Lions - They may actually have the best quarterback in the division in John Kitna (and this might be the first time in Kitna's career that has EVER been written about him), and based on last year, Rod Marinelly might finally have this team heading in the right direction. But let's face two basic facts: The Ford Family ownership of this team has been an unending nightmare, and Matt Millen's tenure as a GM has been record shattering, and not in a good way. No team in the history of the NFL has had as many consecutive seasons with double-digits in the loss column, and I have a hard time buying that he's learned to be better than any of his in-division counterparts. If the Lions finish ahead of another team in the division, I'm guessing it has less to do with the Lions elevating their level of play than it does with the other team spitting the bit. I have a hard time seeing this team improving on their 7-9 season of last year, and considering their schedule gets considerably tougher after the first three games of their season, I wouldn't be surprised if they regressed to four wins.

3. Bears - The carousel goes around and around at the signal caller position, and it looks like Kyle Orton is getting the call again. You'd think someone there could pick a pro-caliber QB, but alas, no. But the real killer for this team is that the D is not what it once was, and lacks depth. I'm guessing in the vicinity of 8-8.

2. Vikings - Despite the deficiencies of Tavaris Jackson, I think this team will compete for the division, and may even win the division, but that's going to depend on three things. One - Jackson has to keep from making the mistake that kills the team. Two - the health of Adrian Peterson. The young running back racked up some hard miles in his rookie year, and breaking down is a strong possibility, and if that happens this team will plummet in the standings. His ability to pound the ball last season made the Minnesota defense better by keeping them rested. If he's not touching the ball, they pay. Three - the health of Aaron Rogers.

1. Packers - The Packers won 13 games last season and were a few plays away from the Super Bowl. Their only major change was at quarterback. Rogers has been in the system for three seasons already, has been solid in preseason, and was better against the Cowboys last season than Brett Favre. If Rogers stays healthy, the Pack wins the division, albeit not by much. Last year they were five games better than the 8-8 Vikings. This season they're maybe two games better, and maybe not even that.

Sizing up the AFC West

Welcome to my sizing up of the NFL before the start of the 2008 season. The following is how I see the quality of the teams stacking up, and the order in which I see the teams finishing. Any of the teams could finish better or worse than what I have listed here, and my first look will be at the AFC West.

4. Raiders - With the addition of running back Darren McFadden, the Raiders are better than they were a year ago. How much better remains to be seen. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced that JaMarcus Russell is going to fare any better in the pros than Michael Vick did. His high draft status was predicated pretty much on one strong season in college. The last team that did that was the Bengals when they drafted Akili Smith in the first round. I think they inch their way to a six win season.

3. Chiefs - I don't really believe that the Chiefs are better than their brethren by the Bay, or that Brody Croyle is going to be any better than Russell will be. Honestly, I think the two teams will battle it out for a spot in the West's basement. While I'm thinking six wins from the Chiefs, I wouldn't be surprised at a repeat of the team's four win 2007 campaign.

2. Broncos - There's some talent on this team, but I've never been as convinced of Mike Shanahan's genius as he or Denver fans have been. He's made some horrible personnel decisions, including the drafting of Maurice Clarett, and for an offensive genius, he's not exactly been able to get the most out of his quarterbacks. I think this team is looking at .500, 9-7 tops.

1. Chargers - San Diego is still the class of the West. They have the best defense and the best running back. Unfortunately their quarterback took a big step backwards last year, their running back likes to look for excuses outside of his team for why they lose, and I still don't have confidence that Norv Turner is the coach to get this team to the promised land. There were whispers of infighting and players not completely committed to Turner's system last season, and the team won fewer games. They will make the playoffs, likely at ten wins, but they will not get the bye.

Observational Thursday

Jacoby Ellsbury can play defense. I don't think Coco would have made the catch that Ellsbury made, diving under the outstretched glove of Jed Lowrie.

Speaking of Ellsbury - for all his recent struggles at the plate, he's hitting .357 in his last nine games with one home run, four runs scored, five driven in, and two stolen bases. Nice to see.

During the Red Sox championship runs we often heard from the pundits about how the Boston nine would be in trouble if they lost David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez for any significant time. Let's face it - They've been without Big Papi this whole season. Yeah, Ortiz has been in the line-up for all but a month, a month and a half, but this is a .250, roughly 75 RBI Ortiz, not the .302, 128.4 RBI per season Big Papi we've seen before this season in Boston. And Manny, well, let's just say the Sox are 6 - 4 in their last ten, with five of those wins coming after Ramirez was traded.

Over in the NFL...

Brett Favre on the Jets. This should be entertaining. It won't be good, but it should be entertaining. Consider - the last time Favre had to learn a new system was when he was traded to the Packers. Favre reputedly did nothing to help with Aaron Rodgers' development, and will likely do nothing for Kellen Clemens'.

Just a hunch, but I think this might be the year that Favre's consecutive starts ends. Any team that thinks Damien Woody is the solution at right tackle, five career starts at the position, has serious issues with their offensive line. Or, to put it another way, the Jets feel that a lineman that lost his job in Detroit is the solution to their O-line woes. It doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence that either Mike Tannenbaum nor Eric Mangini really know what they're doing.

Sure he may have helped the Jets improve, but they're no better than a .500 club. They might eke out more than that, but only by the grace of playing the NFC West clubs.

It's not the decision I expected him to make, considering - he will have to face New England twice, and San Diego, and to get to the Super Bowl he has to believe that the team around him in New York has to be able to get by the Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Steelers, and Jaguars - all teams, that even with Favre added to New York, are still better than the Jets. That doesn't even take into account the Titans, Browns, Broncos, and Bengals - all teams that are probably better than the Favre-Jets.

Is it just me, or is anyone else envisioning Joe Namath in a Rams uniform, or Johnny Unitas in a Chargers uni?

For the fans

I used to watch the All-Star game.

I still remember back in the late 1980's when Dwight Evans made his last one. Late in a close game, Evans was in right with speedster Tim Raines on third. Evans charged hard on a sinking liner as Raines cheated up the line, waiting for his chance to break on the ball. The rock hit the ground about a step in front of Evans and Raines broke. Dewey played the ball cleanly and fired, as he did many a time from Fenway's eastern-most lawns, a heat seeking laser.

Raines stopped after two steps, and walked back to third, watching the throw.

He knew.

I remember actually being excited about the All-Star game. Watching people at or close to the top of their game. Sure, there was the occasional player who really didn't belong. But most of the time these were the guys.

Then, somewhere along the way the players stopped taking it seriously and baseball worried about their cash cow - a meaningless game intended to maximize viewership and minimize other real costs associated with the 162 game drag of a season. They wanted us to believe that it was about the fans, want us to still believe - that tickets to an event with no real impact and stars appearing for an inning or two at a time selling for hundreds of dollars is about us and not their bottom line. That a voting process that doesn't allow for the best shortstop this year to be starting, or a catcher batting under .220 is a good thing for the game.

It's not.

It's not a good thing for the game, and it's not about anything other than the corporation that is Major League Baseball finding another way to line their pockets.

I, for one, would be happy to see the MLB All-Star game go, as well as the NFL's Pro-Bowl. Just do the all-pro lists, keep the fan voting away from it and call it good. Just stop telling me that this annual ritual in money grubbing and the fans, as it is only the soft-minded fan that really believes this game is about him or her and not about lining the corporate pockets.

Before I sign off for the evening, I would like to note that I was going to touch on the Brett Favre cluster-fuck, but I think that no one out there has addressed this better than Paul Zimmerman at si.com.

No...I haven't been on vacation

Just very, very busy this week.

A little background for those of you who don't know...I worked as a staff writer for a community newspaper in Western Maryland for a couple of years, and have been in journalism either part or full-time since 1996 when the short-lived Boston Chronicle had me covering the Red Sox. That's right - my first professional gig as a writer was covering the Red Sox.

Twelve years later I am a stay-at-home dad and a free-lance writer. That's stay-at-home to a six year old and ten month old (first birthday hits at the end of August).

In that twelve years I have written hundreds of articles, covered everything from board of ed meetings and sports to business and the entertainment industry. Until last year, that was all newspaper writing. Last year I wrote an article on the two-year impact of Supreme Court ruling in Granholm v. Heald on the business of mid-Atlantic wineries (primarily as it pertains to distribution and direct shipping to the consumer). The article was for the trade magazine Wine Business Monthly's Web site.

After a number of months freelancing for some small community newspapers, and doing some Web-editing and writing, this week an article that I wrote on Maryland's surviving drive-in theater hit the stands in Maryland Life Magazine.

Between checking the magazine to see how the article looked in print, I have been teaching Kung-fu at a Chinese cultural day camp for an hour and a half each day for the last two weeks (in addition to the normal classes I teach on Tuesday and Thursday evenings), running the kids to story time at the local bookstore (and other kid-friendly events), and, of course, covering my weekly deadlines for the freelance I'm picking up from the local papers, I have had absolutely no time to blog this week - typically I haven't been able to until night when I am no longer able to organize my thoughts (my wife would argue that's all the time...don't listen to her...really).

One last family note before I get started - my eldest, Aurora, is currently on a Harry Potter kick. She listens to the books on tape every night before bed. Every morning she eats breakfast with me while I try to get some of my writing out of the way. In the background I will have some form of sports playing, whether ESPN, or Fox radio, she (a real girly-girl for the most part) gets a healthy dose of sports.

So she was playing yesterday, my wife tells me, and was well entrenched in Harry Potter land - specifically the Malfoy family (those of you who have read or seen the movies know who they are) along with in-law Bellatrix LeStrange. Suddenly my wife heard my daughter say, "and then Bellatrix yelled, 'oh no! IT's the Patriots! And the Red Sox are with them!"

Yeah...I love my daughter.

Quick thoughts...

• Good for Roger Goodell, finally saying what everyone out there knows - rookie contracts, particularly for the top ten draft picks are absolutely ridiculous. Making the first draft pick the highest paid offensive lineman in the league without ever seeing if he really can play in the league is the epitome of ludicrous, and a change needs to be made. It should be an interesting negotiation to get that changed, as the Union won't let that happen without a fight - even though many members agree that it needs to change.

• I think I might amend my earlier sentiment in regards to the Rays. I still maintain there's a lot of youth on that team that could fade down the stretch, but I think the Red Sox made that less likely. It's not the sweep itself at the Trop that's the issue, but the way in which the bullpen coughed up the lead like an emphasymic smoker hacks up wads of phlegm and blood. It was the sort of win for the Rays that can give a young team that might still have some nagging doubts faith that they're in it for the long haul.

• If the Sox make the post-season this year, it's because Jon Lester became the Man. In his last nine games - games bookended by Lester's 7-0 no-hit win over Kansas and his 7-0 shut-out of the Yankees at the Stadium, the team is 7-2, Lester is 5-1 with two complete games and a 2.52 ERA. That's in spite of one bad outing where he gave up six earned in five innings. Not including that bad start in Houston (which happens to even the best of them) his ERA through the other eight games? 1.94.

• A little more on the Man - he has won five of his last six decisions. In those six decisions he has a 1.25 ERA and averaged 7.1 innings and had the aforementioned two complete games, the second following the bullpen melt down that lost Daisuke Matsuzaka a win. Second in wins on the team with seven, Lester, not Beckett, has been the anchor in the absence of Matsuzaka, with an ERA less than a tenth of a run higher than Dice's, almost half a run lower than Beckett's and taking over team lead in starts, innings pitched, complete games, and ERA based on a minimum of 86 innings pitched. He might not have started the season this way, but over the last nine or ten starts, he's been an all-star.
  

• One thing I can say about this team - they sure know how to pick up the slack. At least everywhere but the 'pen. Matsuzaka goes down, Lester begins pitching like an Ace, and Justin Masterson pitches well enough to give the team a chance with each outing. Pig Papi goes down, JD Drew has a career month, Jason Varitek tailspins into the worst slump of his career and Dustin Pedroia goes on a tear where he's batting over .500 and nearly hits for the cycle against the Rays, Manny slumps and Youklis finds himself on pace for 100 runs (second time in his career) and 100 RBI's (first time in his career). That doesn't mean he'll get there, but, barring injury, he should finish the season with a career high in runs batted in.

• I think the real Sid Ponson just stood up. Ponson was acquired once before by the Yankees to disastrous results - In 2006 Ponson appeared in five games for the team with three starts, logging only 16.1 innings, and putting up an inspiring 10.47 ERA. It should be interesting to see if the Yankees, who are desperately short of quality starting pitching (the leading ERA among qualifying starters - Mike Mussina's pedestrian 3.87. None of the other qualifying starters has an ERA below 4.00), can find a way to rectify this problem. A lot of the ESPN analysts like to say that the issue for the Yanks is offense and not pitching, but the fact is, when most of your starters have ERA's over 4.00, your offense has kept you in a lot of games.

One last note - I recently submitted a tee-shirt design to Threadless.com for consideration. For those of you who don't know, Threadless takes designs that get the highest average score based on votes from Web-heads like us, and prints them up. I appreciate any help my faithful readers can give me in getting higher scores. Anyone who can help me out, click on the link below -

Mass-destruction and a fond farewell

The last time any region has experienced a decade with as much dominance over the professional sports scene was probably in the 1960's when Massachusetts saw titles in the NBA practically every year, closed out the decade (1969-70 season) with a Stanley Cup, and sent the Sox to the 1967 World Series and the Patriots to the 1963 AFL Championship (both lost).

From 1961 until 1970 the city was home to nine titles in the big four of professional sports...of course eight of those came from the Celtics.

With the '08 baseball season in front of us still, we're looking at three more seasons before the end of the decade (starting from '01) and Boston already has six titles spread over three sports.

While there were more titles in the 1960's, by virtue of where the titles have come from - the Patriots (3), the Red Sox (2), and the Celtics (1) - and how much of it happened.

Consider - since 2001 the Patriots finally rose to prominence, becoming the most dominant football team of the decade, winning three Super Bowls, appearing in a fourth, and amassing the two longest regular season winning streaks in league history including the only undefeated 16-game regular season.

Move into baseball and you have the Red Sox who have swept their National League counterpart in the World Series twice - the first of the Championships after turning the table on the arch-rival Yankees. En route to delivering their first Series Title since 1918, the Sox became the first team to ever overcome an 0-3 deficit in the ALCS and had a hand in dealing the worst meltdown in the history of the post-season to their rivals. It was a thing of beauty. Add to all that the fact that the Sox are the only team to win two since 2001 and the Yankees are 0-2, it's only icing for the members of Red Sox Nation.

That brings us to the Celtics.

For the better part of the decade the Celtics have been awful. I mean, brutally bad. Not Knicks bad - they weren't carrying either the payroll nor the highly touted talent - but they were scraping the bottom.

In delivering this year's Championship, the team was part of the NBA's biggest turn around ever, extended their league leading number of championship banners to 17, and prevented Phil Jackson from passing Red Auerbach as the coach with the most Championships. Putting together this season's edition, Danny Ainge positioned the team to compete for the rest of the decade.

On the periphery, taking the place of previous Boston area teams that got to the Big Dance, but not able to seal the deal has been the New England Revolution. The Revs have been the runners up to the MLS Cup four times ('02, '05, '06, and '07).

Of the six major league sports now represented in Boston (including the Major League Lacrosse Boston Cannons), New England/Boston has made appearances in the finals of five of the leagues, missing out on only hockey. The Cannons lost by two goals in the 2004 championship game.

In the combined seven seasons since the inception of the 2001 seasons there have been 41 potential titles (hockey missed one due to labor strife). The teams from the Boston Bay area has had teams compete for 12 of those (29.3 percent) and won close to 15 percent of the titles.

By any account, those are impressive numbers.

Speaking of impressive numbers and the post season...

While he hasn't officially announced retirement, Curt Schilling is done. His shoulder is cooked.

It's been a fun ride while it's lasted. I haven't always agreed with Schill's opinions - but as someone who makes his scratch as a reporter, I can tell you, he's a reporter's dream. An absolute quote machine and a clutch performer.

He's the sort of person that I think I would not get along with in a personal relationship - but he'll always get a pass for bringing Boston their first World Series title since Babe Ruth was on the team.

I wish him well recovering from his shoulder surgeries and in whatever his subsequent career is.

Things I think about this weekend

• I think the finals are designed in such a way as to minimize the impact of home-court in the NBA. With three straight games coming up in Los Angeles, and the way the Celtics have played on the road, the Lakers still worry me. I think for the Celtics to win this thing they absolutely, positively need to take one in LA, and I think it needs to be one of the first two games they play against the Lakers, because I'm not convinced that they will be able to take the third if they drop two in a row.

• I think the Celtics lack the ability to stick the dagger in a team when they have it dead to rights. I think that was obvious when they nearly coughed up a 24-point lead, and over 40 points in fourth quarter to the Lakers in game two.

• I think that the Celtics tend to go away from what gave them their lead when they get one.

• I think with a 3-0 record and a 2.59 ERA (only one start in which he gave up more than one run) in four major league starts, the Red Sox are going to have a hard time justifying sending Justin Masterson back to AAA when Clay Buchholz gets healthy.

• I think it's amazing that people were positive that a horse with a cracked hoof had a shot at the triple crown. And that they were surprised when Big Brown didn't run well.

• I think Cedric Benson's an idiot. After being picked up for drunk driving this past weekend, he has lost the benefit of the doubt in relation to the incident last month on the boat. wherein police claim Benson was boating drunk.

• I think the Red Sox need to learn how to be the same team on the road as they are at home...or even half that team. Currently when they're on the road they're...well, they're the Baltimore Orioles.

• I think the more we see of him, the more everyone will realize that Jeremy Shockey is one of those supremely talented me-first guys who causes a team more harm then good with his selfishness. I still firmly believe that the Giants don't even make the Super Bowl, let alone win it, with a healthy Shockey.

• And one final note - I think the three most important people in the Celtics' win were Paul Pierce who has been the best player on the court in the first two games, Rajon Rondo who has been finding the open man seemingly every time he has touched the ball, and Leon Powe who played less than 15 minutes and scored 21 points.
  

Questions

Assuming Bartolo Colon gets one more start while Clay Buchholz is on the disabled list and pitches reasonably well, does Buchholz stay in the minors?

If Colon isn't the answer in the five-hole, and the Sox are concerned that Buchholz isn't progressing as hoped, then is Justin Masterson the answer?

Can too much depth in the starting rotation be a problem? Consider - Currently the rotation is Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakedfield, Jon Lester, and Colon. Waiting in the wings or coming back from injury - Masterson, Buchholz, and Curt Schilling. The beauty for Schil is that the pressure will be off if he makes it back from the DL as he'll be moved into the five slot of the rotation.

The follow up question really is, then, who's the odd man out? Matsuzaka is pitching like an ace; Beckett is struggling, but that's unlikely to last; Wake is being Wake; and Lester is pitching better than any starter without a Japanese name - which leaves whoever is taking the last spot in the rotation - that leaves a pretty solid group of four starters from which to choose.

What's the likelihood that the Celtics will go to Detroit up two games to nil? I have my concerns. The Celtics outplayed what looked like a rusty Pistons squad in game one and didn't exactly take the game running away.

What are the chances that the NFL and the NFLPA come away from their impending talks with a much needed rookie salary cap? Considering Union big-wig Kevin Mawae has publicly expressed the need for one, I think the chances are pretty good. Should be interesting, though, to see if the Union looks for a concession from the owners for something that they have already noted as one of their own needs.

The Yankees are approximately where they were a year ago this time. Can they overcome the rough start two years in a row? I have my doubts. As I've noted before, Chien-Ming Wang is pitching like the number two starter he is, but would-be ace Andy Pettitte is pitching like a 2/3, Mussina is another year older and will have a couple of winning streaks peppered with starts like his last where he couldn't get out of the first. The one bright spot in the rotation has been Darrell Rasner - who's likely to fall back to Earth and begin pitching like he has in his past trips to the majors.

That doesn't even account for a line-up whose skills are eroding with age.

The Yankees aren't the only team performing well below expectations - can Detroit and Seattle overcome their sluggish starts as well?

Are the Rays for real?

Cheating from a different perspective

We've heard the names -

Cheatriots.

Belicheat.

Hate-triots.

The list goes on. And it will.

As I have noted numerous times, there's a certain sanctimony that comes from the fans - a righteous indignation that pretty much can be summed up by, "our team is better than yours 'cause ours doesn't cheat." Unfortunately, that's just not true.

Every team cheats in some way, on some level. Was I surprised by Spygate? No. Disappointed? Yes.

When Arlen Specter came forward with his press conference he revealed that his crusade had little to do with a concern for NFL fans or the integrity of the game. It had to do with the teams of his own home state. Pure and simple.

Consider -

"I have a different perspective," Specter said. "I'm elected by 12 million people., and a lot of them are Steeler fans. ... Frankly I'm incensed about what happened with the Steelers, and I'm incensed about the notes being destroyed. I really am."

So this is about the Steelers?

Not about the fans in Tampa, San Fran, Seattle, or Chicago. It's about his voters.

For all his bluster, he doesn't appear to listen to his constituents. The most important person in relation to the Steelers, Dan Rooney, doesn't think the issue deserves to go any further -

"We consider the tapes of our coaching staff during our games against the New England Patriots to be a non-issue," Rooney said in a statement. "In our opinion, they had no impact on the results of those games."

If the tapes had serious impact, why wouldn't Rooney want a deeper investigation?

Is he concerned what might be turned up that his coaching staff was involved in? Or is he concerned that the Cheatriot nicknames would stop in favor of "Steroid" City instead of Steel City.

For anyone that thinks I'm unjustifiably attacking the Steelers, mind you, it's not because I have a dislike of the team, or that I believe they're engaging in any tactics that other teams aren't already engaged in.

I do think Specter, however, should take a look at the fact that their sideline doctor from their recent Super Bowl was dismissed after linked to the federal HGH investigation in Albany, or that Steve Courson, an offensive lineman from the Steelers last two Super Bowl titles of the 1970's admitted steroid use before his death at the age of 50 giving a lot of credence to the rumors that there was rampant steroid use on the 1970's championship teams.

And let's face it, the mid-1980's Pirates cocaine drug scandal (one of the funnier ones I've read about), just more deeply embroils the city's teams in the rumors of a massive drug culture surrounding the franchises.

As I noted before - I don't think it's anymore rampant than on other teams and in other cities. But the investigation Specter wants, if its for the "fans of the NFL," rather than just for his purposes, needs to look into all cheating in the NFL if the investigation is to be unbiased (the Red Sox did not get left off the hook in Mitchell's investigation with 14 individuals who played for the team at some point and 37 mentions of the team in the report) it needs to be all-inclusive of the NFL. Not just the team Specter wants looked at.

What I think most people don't want to face with professional sports is that cheating is a part of the culture - endemic to the individuals that compete at the highest levels. Doping has historically been a part of cycling. When was the last Olympics anyone remembers that athletes weren't expelled from the games for cheating of some sort? Baseball was ripped apart by the Mitchell Report, and I'm guessing that was the tip of the ice-berg. And football? Performance enhancing drugs, signal stealing (both with and against the rules), and god only knows what else.

Yet, despite all the evidence to the contrary, people believe that these people competing over millions of dollars aren't willing to risk a slap on the wrist and a $30,000 fine. Let's face it...that's just naive.

The Specter of intelligence

Phantom.

Ghost.

Illusion.

Call it what you will, but Arlen Specter appears to be rattling a blunt saber and armed with minimal wits. According to the Associated Press, Specter...well, read it for yourself -

Specter, from Pennsylvania, cited the fact a Patriots attorney sat in on Walsh’s meeting with Goodell as proof the investigation has not been impartial.

I can't wait to hear how he'll be changing the judicial system because it's lack of impartiality due to the fact that attorneys for the accused parties are in the room when the accusers are testifying.

Dave over at the Coffin Corner has a great take on this.

Specter seems to think that a Mitchell-type investigation of the NFL over a rules violation is in order. Mind you, not something illegal like buying and taking banned substances, but over something that merely broke the NFL's rules.

He appears to imply that the investigation should be of the Patriots and how deep Spygate really went.

What I want is transparency on his part. We know what Goodell learned from Walsh. I want to know if Specter actually asked Walsh about his part in Spygate, or just how the NFL questioned Walsh. If it's the latter, then I have to conclude that Specter doesn't actually care about Spygate, but does care about doing everything in his power to make the NFL look bad and his biggest financial backer, Comcast, happy.

Here's the funny thing about Specter's request - he wants transparency? He wants fairness? Then a Mitchell-like investigation is going to blow the lid open.

No sweeping the accusations of "sound issues" in the RCA Dome under the rug with a cursory investigation.

No dismissal by the Steelers of a sideline doctor implicated in the Albany HGH investigation being the end of that issue.

No absolving and forgetting about the Jets and Broncos filming opponents - no matter how many years (Shanahan) the filming violation might be - or the Dolphins use of film, for which they were patted on their back.

Teams would need to get ready for every dirty little secret to be dragged screaming in the daylight - to see what rumors are correct, and which are just rumors. To see every little accusation of doping, sound enhancement, electronic espionage, and god only know what else, exposed to the public.

Specter's beloved Eagles wouldn't be spared. Nor would the league's "infallible" team, the Colts.

It will need to be all encompassing, and it will be brutal to the sanctimonious fans out there that believe they're rooting for teams full of saints.

No team, no team's fans are going to want this.

And from what I can tell, no senators have Specter's back regarding this issue.

Ultimately, all Specter is engaging in here is a distraction technique in an election year - a placebo to pull the minds of voters off an unpopular war entered into under false premises sold to the American people by his party, gas prices spiraling out of control, a housing market that's gone to hell in a hand-basket, and increasing unemployment numbers. It's what Bush did during the last election with the Swift Boats, it's what Specter is doing now.

It's despicable and he needs to be held accountable the way that he is saying the NFL needs to.

Everybody Loves a Winner

Is a crock.

The fans of a winner? Yeah. Bandwagon jumpers? Yeah. Fans of other teams? Not so much.

The more a team wins, the more others hate the team. Dominant teams get singled out for their faults, often in spite of the fact that there are things they do, or did, that are little different than the actions of the other teams.

Red Sox fans don't have a monopoly on loathing the Yankees. When the Mitchell Report hit there were a number of fans that were quick to point out that the Yankees Dynasty of the late Nineties was peppered from top to bottom with individuals named in the report. In the mid-1990's people reveled in the legal troubles of the various Dallas Cowboys.

That is precisely the reason why the Patriots are being singled out - and make no mistake about it - they are being singled out. Try to find out from Arlen Specter why he's making a big deal out of Spygate? Why he's continuing to do so, when everyone else seems to feel that it's a dead issue? Why the Patriots (who beat his Eagles in a Super Bowl) when no one has heard word one from him over -

• Allegations in recent years that both the Colts and the Redskins artificially enhance the crowd noise at their stadiums - a violation of NFL rules, if they are indeed doing so?
• An admission by the Dolphins' then middle linebacker Zack Thomas, after a 2006 21-0 victory over the Patriots, that the 'Phins stole the Patriots' offensive signals from tape?
• Why a team (the Broncos) that won the Super Bowl twice while in violation of the salary cap by almost $30 million over the two seasons, wasn't more severely sanctioned?
• Why that same team, caught taping an opponent's practice mid-week, once again, wasn't more severely sanctioned?
• Why the Jets admitted to taping the Patriots, but received no punishment for doing so?
• The 49ers weren't sanctioned more severely for their salary cap violations of the late 1990's?
• Why more teams aren't sanctioned for tampering when signing players from other teams mere minutes after free-agency begins? Who manages to negotiate and agree to terms in mere minutes with contracts that often exceed 100 pages?

And all of this is just the recent history stuff. An article in the San Diego newspaper from when Spygate hit, outlines some of the things that went on in the 1960's and 70's with the Raiders and somethings even more recently with the Bucs in regards to stealing plays and signals.

All told, the Patriots, Jets, Dolphins, and Broncos have been caught or copped to taping, or having tape of opponent's signals. The Raiders, and Buccaneers have either stolen signals, been suspected of it. And all teams must suspect other teams of doing so, or coaches wouldn't cover their mouths when relaying in signals. That's almost 20 percent of the league. Yet the Patriots are singled out by Specter..why? Because he wants to clean up the game? No.

Because of two things and two things only. It makes him feel better about the fact his team lost to be able to call the other team cheaters, and his biggest campaign contributor is Comcast, currently locked in a legal battle with the NFL in regards to the NFL network.

The Patriots cheated. But they did no more than any one of a number of teams.

And anyone that believes otherwise is being willfully ignorant of what goes on in the NFL.

Draft gurus

Tomorrow is the NFL draft.

The pundits have been out in force, analyzing, dissecting, breaking down the top players - trying to find the sleepers, identify the busts, and anoint the next superstars without a single player having seen a single down in the NFL except on their television sets on Sunday.

It passed the stage of interesting a long time ago and now just resides in the land of tedium. Analysis for analysis' sake. Everyone has a different opinion, everyone identifies a different place where a team has needs, and everyone seems to feel they have the right remedy for what ails a given team.

Are there draft picks that are gimmes? Yeah, and there are those that are so glaringly wrong (Ted Ginn, Jr., anyone?) that one wonders how the GM and the scouts of those teams still have jobs going into the second day of the draft, and there are reaches. But let's face it, if these so-called draft experts were so good at what they do, they would be drawing their paychecks from the NFL and not some media outlet.

Mel Kiper, I'm looking at you.

I'm not saying what he does is easy. He compiles an immense amount of information and seems to be able to recall it without referencing notes. What I am saying is that he does not seem capable of doing the most difficult part of his job - which is to bring a certain gut instinct to his analysis...to separate certain facts and make accurate projections based on scheme and mental make-up.

For those of you who think otherwise, here is a list of some of Kiper's most memorable moments ganked from his bio on Wikipedia...

• Kiper also criticized the Colts selection of Marshall Faulk at #2 in 1994, saying that the team should have taken either Shuler or Trent Dilfer.^[5] Kiper attacked the selection of Faulk, stating, "That's why the Colts keep picking No. 2 every year." ^[6] Faulk became the 1994 Offensive Rookie of the Year.^[7] After a long career as one of the elite running backs NFL history, the general consensus is that Faulk will someday be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

• Kiper projected quarterback Jeff George of the University of Illinois as a mid-round pick, George selected as number 1 overall by the Indianapolis Colts. George's career was inconsistent and riddled with behavior-related problems. ^[8]

• Kiper projected Notre Dame quarterback Rick Mirer as the 30th pick; he was selected second overall by the Seattle Seahawks.^[9] Though he showed some early promise, Mirer failed to develop and was finally benched during his fourth season. He spent the remaining eight years of his career with six different teams as a journeyman backup. ^[10]

• Among his failures, Kiper thought that Heisman Trophy winner and University of Houston quarterback Andre Ware would be an excellent NFL quarterback and a great match for the Detroit Lions-- Ware's tenure in the NFL was brief and inconspicuous. Ware is considered among the biggest busts in draft history.^[11]

• In 1999, Kiper said that Oregon quarterback Akili Smith would be a great NFL player and would finally provide the Cincinnati Bengals with the passer they'd lacked since Boomer Esiason. Smith was selected ahead of Daunte Culpepper, Torry Holt, Edgerrin James, Champ Bailey, and Jevon Kearse, but he spent less than four abysmal seasons in Cincinnati, starting only 17 games. He has since struggled in several brief stops in the NFL, NFL Europe, and the CFL. It's notable that Kiper rated Smith higher than Donovan McNabb and Culpepper, despite the facts that Smith only had 11 starts at the college level and had performed poorly on the Wonderlic aptitude tests administered at the NFL Combine, both of which are traditionally seen as important indicators of a quarterback's readiness for the NFL. Smith's career was marred by inconsistency and failure to grasp the complexities of the Bengals' playbook, issues which appear to have been foreshadowed by his lack of experience and low scores.

• One of Kiper's most well known mistakes was when he stated that USC wide receiver Mike Williams would be the best player in his 2005 draft class, despite not having played football in over a year after being ruled ineligible by the NCAA. When ESPN analyst Merril Hoge disagreed, Kiper uttered the now infamous line, "I'll see you at his Hall of Fame induction." Williams has been a remarkable disappointment, playing very little and showing no signs of improvement with either of the two teams he's played for. As of October 31, 2007 he is already out of football after being waived by the Oakland Raiders. Further adding to the embarrassment for Kiper (and the Detroit Lions, who selected him 10th overall) is the fact that the next three players selected after Williams all became Pro-Bowlers within 2 years - the Cowboys' DeMarcus Ware, the Chargers' Shawn Merriman, and Saints offensive tackle Jamaal Brown.
  

• In the 1995 Draft, Kiper proclaimed UCLA wide receiver JJ Stokes a "sure-thing" who was destined to be a future All-Pro. On draft day, Kiper lambasted several teams, including the New York Jets, for passing on Stokes until he was selected 10th overall by the San Francisco 49ers. Stokes spent an undistinguished 8 years in San Francisco in the shadows of Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens, never making a single Pro Bowl or even surpassing 770 yards receiving. After the draft, the Jets signed Hofstra wide receiver Wayne Chrebet as an undrafted free agent. Chrebet became one of the Jets most popular players and surpassed Stokes in every major statistical category.

• In the same 1995 Draft, Kiper had rated BYU Quarterback John Walsh as a first round pick. Walsh declared for the draft after his Junior season and had an abysmal NFL combine where he ran a 5.3 forty yard dash and displayed a weak arm in workouts. Nonetheless, Kiper still rated Walsh as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick on the day of the draft and said he would be a perfect fit for a "West Coast Offense" team like the San Francisco 49ers because of his accuracy on short passes. Walsh slid all the way to the 7th round where he was finally taken by the Cincinnati Bengals. He never appeared in a single game for the quarterback needy Bengals and was out of football less than a year later.

• One example of Kiper getting a player correct in the 1995 draft was when he asserted that Notre Dame defensive back Bobby Taylor, a college free safety, would make an excellent cornerback in the NFL because of his ability to match up with larger wide receivers. Kiper had Taylor rated as one of his top 10 prospects in the draft, and though Taylor wasn't drafted until the 2nd round by the Philadelphia Eagles, he went on to have a long and distinguished career just as Kiper said he would.

• In 1998 Kiper said that Washington State Quarterback Ryan Leaf's "attitude" (which had rubbed teammates and coaches the wrong way in college) would be an asset in the NFL and give him a mental advantage over Peyton Manning. Kiper also said that Leaf had the better natural physical tools and would be a great quarterback, though he still rated Manning as the more polished and better overall prospect. Leaf was chosen second overall by the San Diego Chargers immediately after Manning. Leaf's career soon imploded, largely because of a confrontational attitude and poor practice habits that alienated teammates, coaches, and fans. He is now regarded as not only the worst bust in NFL draft history, but also possibly the biggest bust in all of professional sports.^[12] His story is viewed as a cautionary tale of what can happen when a team attempts to build around a player with raw talent but questionable attitude.

• Before the 2001 NFL season, Kiper predicted the New England Patriots to go 0-16 and have the 1st pick in the 2002 NFL Draft. Instead, the Patriots went 11-5 and went on to win Super Bowl XXXVI against the St. Louis Rams.^{[citation needed]}

By no means is Kiper alone in this, however, when so glaringly wrong on picks like Leaf, Akili Smith, and Ware...all of whom had serious detractors at the time of their respective drafts, one has to wonder how he retains his draft guru title with ESPN.