Catching up, yet again

As you might be able to tell, I have been busy lately. I have about a half dozen story proposals or so floating out there with various magazines, have been working on home improvements, looking into going back to a staff position somewhere now that my youngest daughter is closing in on two - all of that has taken away from my time here at TAF. There have been a lot of things to comment on that have come and gone in the five days since my last blog post. Here goes...

Overall, I have no vested interest in the NHL finals and little more than that in the NBA finals this year. At least if Carolina had made it to the Stanley Cup round of the post season on the ice, then I would at least have a former New England team to root for, but we have the Penguins and the Red Wings. Eh.

Over on the hardwood...well, let's just say that the entirety of my interest there would be in seeing the Lakers lose. I don't think it's going to happen now that Los Angeles is up 2-0, but I would love to see them lose.

The Lakers are one of those teams that I love to see lose, they're up there with the Yankees, Cowboys, and Raiders. Being a Patriots fan, some might be puzzled that I haven't picked division rivals like the Jets and Dolphins, or even the rival Colts, but there's something different with them.

If the Raiders went 0-16, I would enjoy that, and while I kind of rooted for the Dolphins to match that mark two seasons ago (but only when they were in the 0-13 territory), I much prefer it when the Jets and Dolphins are decent for a couple of reasons - one: better games. Two: I much prefer seeing those teams come close and get knocked out at the hands of the Patriots then to watch them struggled and be eliminated from contention before Halloween.

Speaking of football, I didn't like Peyton Manning's public criticism of the new coaching regime. I don't know if it was more a reflection of the new staff still finding its feet, or a reflection of how spoiled Manning has been due to virtually no coaching defections during his career. In theory, there should be little to no change in how the Colts play the game since the entire coaching staff was there under Tony Dungy, but there's no telling if Pete Metzellars is going to be as good at coaching up line men as Howard Mudd - yes, he did well in the middle of the year taking over for Mudd when Mudd was dealing with health issues, but how does he do starting with a free-agent rookie from scratch like Mudd did with Jeff Saturday? He may be fine, but we just don't really know.

On top of that, the team has new coordinators for pretty much the entire team - offense, defense, and special teams. The play calling will be different. Maybe better, maybe worse.

My guess is that the team shows some growing pains, but they miss the playoffs as a ten or eleven win team, finishing behind the Titans again in their own division.

The Colts enter the season not unlike the Patriots. While the key question for the Colts is "how the is the coaching staff going to perform," the Pats are rolling the dice on the rebuilt knee of their all-pro quarterback. If Brady can play without the knee getting into his head, he should be the same guy they've always had back there. With a very likely revamped and improved Jets defense in week two, the Ravens defense in week four and the Titans and Bucs all in the first seven weeks of the season, fans of the Patriots will find out quickly if Tom Brady is thinking about the knee, or about completing passes.

While the Pats defense was shaky last season, I'm less concerned there based on the moves the team has made, leaving the biggest question on the offensive side of the ball.

Over on the diamond I can't say that homer that David Ortiz had gave me any sort of hope that he's breaking out of that power slump. Big Papi just barely cleared the wall right at the Pesky Pole. In any other ball park that hit is a long single or maybe a double, but certainly not a home run.

Jon Lester's near no-no, however, might be cause for hope. I'm still reserving judgement on the Sox lefty for at least another two starts (he's failed to put together more than two good starts in a row, in spite of leading the team in innings pitched), before I say that he's turned the corner, but things have been encouraging lately.

Through his first eight starts Lester was 4-2 with a 6.51 ERA. He bottomed out in starts five and six, pitching a total of ten innings while giving up 13 earned runs over the two games. It was his worst two game stretch of the year, beating out his first two starts in which he pitched eleven total innings while giving up eleven earned runs.

In the four starts since, Lester has pitched 27.1 innings, gone 3-1 with three quality starts, all the while logging a 2.64 ERA. His next best four game stretch ran from his start on April 19 and ran to May 4. During that stretch he went 2-0, and gave up 10 earned runs over 26 innings for a 3.46 ERA. Like the recent stretch, Lester had three of four quality starts. So, yeah, I'm going with a wait and see approach on the Sox lefty.

While Lester has certainly had his issues this season, and almost all of the pitchers have faltered badly at one time or another, they have all been better than Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has struggled in just about every outing.

For all of Lester's issues, the Left is averaging 6.1 innings per start. Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett are also averaging 6.1 innings per start. Even the oft maligned Brad Penny is pushing 5.2 innings per start, an average that would be higher were it not for two rough starts in his first three of the season in which he pitched for a grand total of 5.2 in those two starts. The Dice-man? Just a shade under 4.2 innings pitched per game. Yes, that includes a one inning/five-earned run fiasco of a start, that without he is averaging 5.1 innings per start and still has the highest ERA of the starters at 5.88.

While Matsuzaka's stats, sans the one terrible start, is only slightly higher than Brad Penny's 5.85 (overall), and slightly lower than Penny's IP per game, it might do better to look at the number of quality starts each of the Sox starters has turned in...

Matsuzaka - 0 for 6_00.0%
Masterson - 2 for 6*_33.3%
Lester - 6 for 12_ 50%
Penny - 6 for 11_54.5%
Wakefield - 7 for 11_63.6%
Beckett - 8 for 11_72.7%

*One note on Masterson's six starts - his first two starts he failed to go a full six innings, both times leaving after only 5.1 innings, but also leaving the game after giving up only one earned run. During Masterson's run of six starts in place of Matsuzaka, Masterson was 2-2 with a 4.59 ERA while averaging just under six innings per start. How long do they go with Matsuzaka in an effort to let him get his feet before they make a switch to Masterson, Buchholz, Bowden or someone else? How much time does their monetary investment in the Dice-man buy him?

Things I think about this weekend

• I think the finals are designed in such a way as to minimize the impact of home-court in the NBA. With three straight games coming up in Los Angeles, and the way the Celtics have played on the road, the Lakers still worry me. I think for the Celtics to win this thing they absolutely, positively need to take one in LA, and I think it needs to be one of the first two games they play against the Lakers, because I'm not convinced that they will be able to take the third if they drop two in a row.

• I think the Celtics lack the ability to stick the dagger in a team when they have it dead to rights. I think that was obvious when they nearly coughed up a 24-point lead, and over 40 points in fourth quarter to the Lakers in game two.

• I think that the Celtics tend to go away from what gave them their lead when they get one.

• I think with a 3-0 record and a 2.59 ERA (only one start in which he gave up more than one run) in four major league starts, the Red Sox are going to have a hard time justifying sending Justin Masterson back to AAA when Clay Buchholz gets healthy.

• I think it's amazing that people were positive that a horse with a cracked hoof had a shot at the triple crown. And that they were surprised when Big Brown didn't run well.

• I think Cedric Benson's an idiot. After being picked up for drunk driving this past weekend, he has lost the benefit of the doubt in relation to the incident last month on the boat. wherein police claim Benson was boating drunk.

• I think the Red Sox need to learn how to be the same team on the road as they are at home...or even half that team. Currently when they're on the road they're...well, they're the Baltimore Orioles.

• I think the more we see of him, the more everyone will realize that Jeremy Shockey is one of those supremely talented me-first guys who causes a team more harm then good with his selfishness. I still firmly believe that the Giants don't even make the Super Bowl, let alone win it, with a healthy Shockey.

• And one final note - I think the three most important people in the Celtics' win were Paul Pierce who has been the best player on the court in the first two games, Rajon Rondo who has been finding the open man seemingly every time he has touched the ball, and Leon Powe who played less than 15 minutes and scored 21 points.
  

Baaaad things, man

I am a cyclist. I bike and run to keep in shape and play Australian football.

I am not a cyclist on the level of my brother who bikes several hundred miles per week, but I do like to get out and ride. I might ride on average about 40 to 50 miles per week in season (when I am able to get out regularly) - sometimes more if I get serious alone time and get in a 25 mile ride.

My brother, on the other hand, will crank through 50 miles in a day and not think about it.

He's touched.

But I digress.

One of the biggest fears of a cyclist is motorists. Many are very inconsiderate of cyclists (granted, there are a number of boneheads that don't understand the idea of single file when riding bikes in groups), often accelerating to make a right turn in front of a bicyclist without really having enough room to do so, or not checking rear view mirrors before opening car doors.

Races are a sanctuary. We have the road to ourselves as we vie for position. Cars don't even enter our thoughts.

In light of this story about a race in Monterey, Mexico, maybe motorists need to stay in our thoughts.
For the most part I think the photo ganked from CNN speaks for itself. A drunk American motorist fell asleep at the wheel, veered into a race, injured 10 cyclists and killed one. This is the sort of thing that's on my mind every time I go out for a ride.

The Manhattan Project...

The Joba Experiment started with a whimper rather than a bang. The Yankees dominating set-up man lasted for only two and a third innings, barely throwing more than half his 62 pitches for strikes.

Here's the math on that, to put it in perspective -

It's a respectable 3.91 ERA (only one of his two runs were earned). However, it projects to 242 pitches over nine innings - which makes a sub-5.00 ERA unlikely. It also translates to 16 walks per nine and four hits - also unlikely to stay that low over nine if his pitch count is that elevated, particularly four a guy that is used to only going an inning to two innings, max, per start.

Consider, the following - according to the YES Network, Joba averages (as a reliever) 3.97 pitches per plate appearance - over the league average of 3.77. He faced 12 batters in his start. Assuming for 28 batters over a seven inning appearance, Chamberlain is throwing on average six more pitches than other starters.

That doesn't sound like a lot, but it's six more opportunities for a team to put a ball into play. It's also likely that someone not used to going more than two innings is going to have a higher average per plate appearance (his first start was 5.17 per plate appearance). While Chamberlain may straighten this out somewhat, Yankees fans will be foolish to expect him to be a dominant starter. He might turn into a good one, but you can get away with being a reliever with one or two dominant pitches - you can't get away with being a starter with fewer than three good pitches.

I for one, as a Sox fan, want to thank Hank Steinbrenner for taking their best reliever out of the pen so he can help the team only once every five days (and I think that it's likely to be a much lower average than that as this plays out).

For Yankees fans offended by this post - consider the following. Chamberlain has 39 career relief appearances. In those appearances he is 3-1 with 20 holds, 12 this season alone with one of his three wins. His only loss was in the start. That means that he had a hand in 13 of the Yankees 28 wins. That translates into a positive impact once every 4.5 games this season, but it also translates into a hand in almost 50 percent of the teams' wins. With approximately 21 starts left in the season, if he stays healthy, and assuming the team wins half his starts (giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will go 10-6 with 6 no decisions), that becomes a positive impact approximately in one out of every ten starts.

Yup, that's the sort of baseball IQ I like to see from the Yankees.

Substandard...

Sox phenom Justin Masterson finally had a mediocre start, giving up four runs in six innings. Masterson in his first two starts on the major league level has been lights out - so much so that the four runs he gave up last night failed to nudge his ERA over 3.00 (2.95). Still, Masterson secured his second major league win with what, so far, appears to be a substandard start for him.

Boston's Russian-Roulette bullpen managed to find the empty chamber and not shoot the team in the head last night, and the hitting came up big during Life Without Papi.

Nicked...

In light of the recent revelation that Nick Kaczur was nailed for illegally buying prescription pain killers, and the recent signing of veteran offensive tackle Oliver Ross, one has to wonder if Kaczur is short for the team. Generally considered by scouts to be the weakest starter on the O-line, Kaczur did himself no favors getting nailed by the Feds in April.

Master of his destiny and other thoughts

• Justin Masterson is going to make it hard for the Red Sox to justify keeping him in Pawtucket. Masterson is now 1-0 in two starts spanning 12.1 innings and a minuscule 1.46 ERA. It could have been below one had the bullpen held when it took over the game.

• Am I the only one that was worried that Masterson wouldn't get the much deserved win when Terry Francona went to the bullpen?

• Within two years the Sox starting rotation is going to be Matsuzaka, Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, and Masterson. I think that Buchholz or Masterson could still go in a trade - but it's going to have to be an absolute can't miss trade that will help the team for years, or Sox fans will have Theo's head on a pike.

• Watching the NBA playoffs I think I can say without equivocation that the Celtics are a different team when Rajon Rondo is sitting on the bench. The interesting thing is that Eddie House has been playing like a man possessed the last couple of games, but there has been little trickle-down from him to his teammates, whereas Rondo sets a tempo and intensity that has seemed to be infectious when he's on the court.

• For all the regular season promotion of the Celtics' new Big Three as being Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce, in the post-season its been Garnett, Pierce, and Rondo, with Allen a virtual no-show. If Allen can find his game, then opponents are going to be in trouble.

• Considering the overall age of the Celtics, it would be nice to see them steal a game in Detroit and maybe get a little rest before the finals. That said, Detroit has been the team that has concerned me the most. Of all the teams the C's have played this post-season, they're the one I think can steal one in the Gahden and could send the Celtics packing.

• I don't know what to think of the NFL owners opting out of the current agreement with the NFLPA. For pretty much the last two decades the two groups have been able to hammer out agreements before any real strife, but I have a hunch that this negotiation is going to be more contentious than anything since the lock-out in the 1980's.

Quick shots from Yankee Land...

• Hank Steinbrenner has to be on the verge of an apoplectic fit. Between a construction worker who happens to be a Red Sox fan jinxing the new stadium, the Sox riding atop the AL East and the Yanks languishing at the bottom, and his team struggling and looking either too old, or not yet ready for prime time, the clock is ticking on the time bomb that is Steinbrenner.

• After pitching over his head in his last five starts, Mike Mussina returned to form against the Orioles, lasting only two-thirds of an inning and giving up seven runs. Granted, only one run was earned (although watching the highlights, I don't know that I completely believe Yahoo's box on that), but at least six were scored with two out. Mussina just couldn't get out of the inning.

• Speaking of pitching that's going to contribute to Hank's head popping like a bloated tick, the Renaissance of young pitching in Fenway is going to give the man a conniption. The would-be veteran aces of both the Sox (Beckett) and Yanks (Pettitte) are struggling, but the number two's - Matsuzaka and Wang - aren't. However, Matsuzaka is looking like the ace he was in Japan while Wang looks like the number two pitcher he is. However, the real bad news comes from the home-grown products...The vaunted young starters, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, are a combined 0-7 with a 9.00 and 8.48 ERA respectively. There are two quality starts between them, and the Yankees 2-10 in their combined 12 starts. I guarantee you that Hank is eying not only the 5-2 Johan Santana, but the Red Sox young arms have to be what will put his snit over the top. Masterson, Lester, and Buchholz are a combined 6-5 with a no-hitter and two complete games.

• Hank also couldn't have been happy to be reminded of Alex Rodriguez's prowess at the plate when it doesn't matter.