And now for the AFC East

The AFC East is going to be one of the most watched divisions this season, if for no other reason than the following -

• People will want to see when the Patriots finally lose a game
• See how Brett Favre fares in New York
• See how Da Tuna's changes work in Miami
• To see if Buffalo can close the gap on a playoff birth

There's a lot going on in a division that faces an easier schedule than it had last season, and the following is how I see the chips falling...

4. Jets - It was the biggest move of any team in the off-season, and it could result in big dividends for the Jets, but I don't think it will. I don't see Brett Favre being the solution on a team that had so many glaring holes last year. If anything, I believe, given the short amount of time he had to practice with the team going into the season, he will be a wash (in regards to Chad Pennington). Before anyone gets defensive about it, I present the following -

1. Favre is learning a new system for the first time in 16 seasons, that will cause early problems for a team that faces New England, San Diego, and an improved Arizona squad in the first four games. This is a team that could easily enter their bye at 1-3 or even 0-4.
   
2. He has had one good season in the last three - last year's when the young talent drafted by Green Bay finally began to gel. The Jets do not have the playmakers on defense, the wide outs (though theirs aren't bad), the runners, nor the offense line that the Packers have. Favre has not made his teammates better the last couple of seasons, he was made better last season by young talent placed around him. Now that talent is around Aaron Rodgers.
3. The Jets brought in Damien Woody and Alan Faneca to protect a quarterback that will be 39 in October - two thirty-plus year-old linemen. Sure, Faneca was a pro-bowler while surrounded by other pretty good linemen in Pittsburgh, but now he has to compensate for a roughly average D'Brickshaw Ferguson, and an okay Nick Mangold on either side of him. And Woody, well, this is a guy who spent his career handling tackles from the guard position, lost his starting job in Detroit of all places, and has been brought in to play tackle. Forgive me if I'm skeptical about that line having great results.
4. With that line, teams aren't going to give Favre time early to connect long. Teams will pressure Favre until the Jet line shows it can handle the pressure. Don't count on the long ball early.

All that said, the Jets will win around six games this year just out of the mercy of the scheduling gods that gave them teams like Kansas City and Oakland - and even the Raiders aren't a given for the Jets this season.

3. Dolphins - This still isn't a good team. As a matter of fact, it's still pretty bad. However, while it's universally acknowledged that the Favre deal was the biggest deal during the off-season, I believe that the Chad Pennington signing is the most important. It makes the Dolphins significantly better than they were last year, it might even make them better than the Jets, and here's why - unlike Favre, Pennington has had to adapt to new coaches and new systems, and it's likely, given Bill Parcells' predilection for hiring guys he's worked with before (he drafted Pennington), it's likely that Pennington will be playing in the same system in which excelled when he was first with the Jets. Overall the team lacks the requisite personnel to be successful, and the 'Phins would be better off with Parcells on the sideline rather than in the executive offices, but he will make the team better in the long run, just don't expect a contender right away. Expect them to be around that same six win plateau as the Jets, maybe even seven and nine if they can steal a game here and there.

2. Bills - I think Donte Whitner's mouth is writing checks his team can't cash. This team isn't bad, but it's got work to do to get to the next level. They aren't ready to compete with the likes of the Pats, Indy, the Steelers, and the Jags, San Diego, and maybe not even the Browns. I give the team an outside shot at the playoffs, but should they eke their way in, it will be one of those final regular season Sundays when they're doing calculus to figure out tie-breakers with teams like the Titans, or the Broncos as they try to figure out the tie-breaker (Dick Jauron to Whitner sometime in December: I think we get in if the Broncos win, but only on a drop kick from 32-yards out or longer by Jay Cutler, unless the Ravens score a safety and it happens to be a new moon).

1. Patriots - A lot of people are putting the Pats at 12-4. I'm going to go out on a limb and put the Pats at 15-1, losing only to the Colts during the regular season. Yes, there were issues during the pre-season on defense, but this is largely the same defense the Pats had last season that was ranked fourth overall, they ran virtually no stunts during the pre-season, and they've added some speed and youth on that side of the ball. In games that the defense struggles, this is still an offense that will be able to score at will against almost every team in the NFL, and it's a better team, from a talent perspective, than the Chargers, probably the second best team the Pats will face this season. It's been 19 games since the last time the Pats lost in the regular season. If my guess is correct, the Patriots will make it to 26 consecutive regular season wins before dropping another game.

On a related note, my wife is creepy. Years ago my wife started doing this thing where she would just say if the Pats would win or lose. If I remember, it started with the 1996 season. She got every game right that season. Overall, through the years she's probably batting about .900, maybe .950. She said, without hesitation nor reservation, that the Patriots would win the Super Bowl this year. She could be wrong, but I wouldn't bet against her.

Taylor-made trade

So Jason Taylor is now on the Redskins for the reasonable ransom of Miami's second-rounder next year, and a sixth-rounder in the 2010 draft. The debate has begun as to who won - who made out best at the end of the day.

Let's begin by noting that no one will really know, of these two teams, who the real winner is for a couple of years, but here are some thoughts on the trade...

In the long run, it's likely that the Dolphins were winners here if you consider the following...a second rounder and a sixth rounder used right can amount to some significant long-term help. Consider Matt Light (2nd rounder) and Tom Brady (6th rounder), or Adalius Thomas (6th rounder) and Lawyer Milloy (2nd rounder) - all of those are players that have contributed long-term in the NFL. Especially considering Jason Taylor's expressed intent to retire at the end of next season, the Dolphins team has a chance to make this trade work out well for them - but that depends on Bill Parcells' ability to buy the right groceries.

As for the Redskins...well, sure, they get a six time pro-bowler, but this isn't the first time under Dan Snyder's watch that the 'Skins have brought in a multiple pro-bowler...Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Jerome Mathis, and Mark Brunell are a small cross-section of the high end players that the Snyder regime has brought in. They are members of a fraternity of Washington players that accounted for 26 pro-bowls previous to signing with Snyder in the nation's capital (Taylor will bring the number to 32).

The 'Skins, of course, are hoping to break that jinx with Taylor, but even if they do, they're only getting a season, maybe two from him. I would be surprised if he played any longer, given his very public sentiments to get involved in other post-career endeavors. Given the division, and everything the 'Skins have going against them, I don't see Taylor in a significantly better situation...

Yes, the Redskins made great strides last season finishing third in the NFC East with a 9-7 record - this in spite of a quarterback who often looked not-quite-ready for prime time. However, they are starting from scratch with a new coaching staff and a new system in a division in which they have the fourth best quarterback and an unproven commodity at coach.

Taylor now finds himself anchoring a defense on a team looking up at the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants, the defending NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys, and perennial contender Philadelphia Eagles.

Let's look at it a little differently - if Taylor had his choice of teams, rather than being shipped in a trade, yet still limiting it to the NFC East, is he choosing the team with Super Bowl winning coach Tom Coughlin? The team with Andy Reid, the only coach to go to the NFC Championship Game four consecutive seasons? Or Wade Phillips who has had only one losing season as a head coach? Or Jim Zorn, a career coordinator? I'm guessing it's not the last one.

So, who is really the winner in this case?

I don't think it's either the 'Skins who get a one year rental or the 'Phins who get question marks.

Nope.

It's Tom Brady and Matt Light.

While the Patriots have beaten the Dolphins pretty regularly over the last couple of years, the games against them have been about a struggle. Jason Taylor has been a big part of that, making life miserable twice a year for Brady and Light and now he's gone.

They win.

You are what you are

Those were the words of Bill Parcells.

He was once asked about his team. The gist of the question was along the lines of "do you think your team is better than its record," or "do you feel like you got away with one?" Or some other such inquiry. His message - if your team is 8-8, then you're 8-8...no matter how much better you might try to make others believe you are.

The Chargers are competing for the AFC Championship.

The Patriots are 17-0 (that number sound familiar '72 'Phins?...'Cause in every math class I was ever in, 19 is greater than 17...get over it).

The Colts are officially no longer the defending Super Bowl champs - the defense of their title officially ended on the carpet at the RCA Dome, dropping Peyton Manning's home playoff record to an uninspired 4-3.

The Seahawks are not a winter weather team. The Packers are.

Soon, I'll know what the Cowboys are and what the Giants are.

As the Divisional Round is just hours from wrapping up, with match-ups getting set for next week's Conference Championship, I, as a Patriots fan, am curious to see how the injury report is going to read for the Chargers. A lot of bodies were left on the field, as the Chargers closed out the Colts without Philip Rivers or LaDanian Tomlinson lining up.

More amazing? That the Chargers won in spite of some poor offensive calls by Norv Turner. With approximately a minute and a half left on the clock, third and five, with the Colts D stacked against the run, Turner called for a run in the middle. Colts got the ball back with 90 seconds on the clock and one timeout.

Fortunately, it didn't come back to haunt the Chargers as San Diego's defense came up big - hitting Reggie Wayne so hard on third and long that it forced the Colts to burn the timeout due to an injury stoppage.

Dolphin safe Tuna

With Bill Parcells signing a contract to run football operations for the next four years in Miami, the speculation has already begun as to whether or not he will try to recruit his son-in-law - Scott Pioli.

As Pats fans well know, Pioli is half of the front office tandem along with Bill Belichick that put together the three Super Bowl winners and the current undefeated edition. They are the architects. There are a whole slew of things we're going to find out about Parcells and the Dolphins -

How deeply seated is the grudge against Kraft for not being allowed to "buy his own groceries?" This is going to be answered by how hard he pursues his son-in-law, whom Kraft is unlikely to give permission for Parcells to interview. Considering he's married to Parcells daughter, though, how hard will it be for Parcells to talk to him anyway?

Under NFL rules, Kraft is only obligated to give Parcells permission to speak to Pioli if the position that Parcells wants to offer is a definite promotion - the bottom line is that Pioli would have to have final say on personnel matters. I have a hard time buying that this job isn't about showing everyone that HE can turn the moribund Dolphins around. As such, Kraft will be in his rights to turn Parcells down for an interview request.

We're going to find out if Cam Cameron still has a job.


We're going to find out just how bad the front office has been for the Dolphins for the last decade. Their drafts during that time might have never happened. As I have previously noted - In the six drafts from 1998 to 2003, Miami had 59 choices. It exercised 46 of those picks and used 13 other choices in trades to acquire veteran players. Only Ricky Williams, acquired in a draft day deal as one of those 13 other choices, is on the current Dolphins roster.


Their first round pick last season was an injured kick returner who was projected to still be on the board when they picked again in the second round. Their last coach was an unmitigated disaster who bailed when the going got tough (sound familiar Atlanta fans?).

We're going to find out, and quickly, who on the current roster is not a "Parcells-type" of player.


And we're going to find out who is his coach - who will want to coach in Miami with Parcells breathing down his neck? Will Maurice Carthon get a shot? Mike Singletary?


Finally, the Dolphins will be better, but by how much? We're going to find out if Parcells can really get the job done without Belichick at his side. For his career, The Tuna is under .500 without his one-time right hand man at his side. In nine seasons without Belichick as either a defensive coordinator, or assistant headcoach, Parcells is 67-76 (12-19 with the Giants, 21-27 with the Patriots, and 34-30 with the Cowboys), 2-6 in the playoffs with no conference or Super Bowl Championships, and only two seasons of at least ten wins. Three of the winning seasons came in Dallas where Jerry Jones was "buying the groceries."

Sure, Parcells will be in the front office, and not the sideline, and Parcells made some great choices for the Patriots including Ty Law, Drew Bledsoe, and Willie McGinnest, but he also brought in washed up favorites from the Giants like Myron Guyton.


One last thought - Having worked for the Patriots, and Jets, what are the odds that Parcells goes to the Bills in some capacity when his contract is up with the 'Phins?

Reality check

From Redskins defensive lineman Phillip Daniels about this past weekend's 52-7 thrashing at the hands of the Patriots - "That's running up the score, there isn't any other way to look at that. C'mon, man, you're going for it on fourth down and you're up by 38 points. You're throwing the ball late in the game. Most teams just run the clock out to get the win. They don't think like that, but I guess it's our job to stop them. You can't do anything about it, just go out and play defense and try to stop them."

Daniels went on to say that he talked to Belichick after the game, accusing the Patriots coach of having no respect for the game, and saying that coaches like Bill Parcells and Bill Walsh would never have run up the score that way. Part of the point being that the old-school coaches wouldn't run the score up on anyone.

Let's take a quick look at a sampling of what Walsh did during his tenure (1979-1988) with the 'Niners (gotta love having the NFL Record & Fact Book) -

Beat the following by the following scores -
Minn, 1988, 34-9
Seattle, 1988 38-7
Tampa, 1986 31-7
Wash, 1985 35-8
Dallas, 1981 45-14
Dallas, 1983 42-17

Average margin of victory in just this cross-section? 27.2 points per game (ppg).

And of course his protege, George Seifert annihilated the Broncos in the Super Bowl in '89 (the year after Walsh retired from coaching) 55-10, after beating the Rams (30-3) and Vikings (41-13) in the playoffs. Average margin? 33.3.

Speaking of Dallas, how about the old-school coach Tom Landry -

San Fran, 1980 59-14
Seattle, 1980 51-7
Denver, 1980 41-20

Average margin? 36.7.

As for Parcells -

St Louis, 1985 34-3
Phoenix, 1988 44-7

Average margin? 34.

Gibbs himself ran up the score on the Falcons in a 1985 contest to the tune of 44-10 and again in 1991 with the result an impressive 56-17 for an average in those two contests of 36.5 ppg. And this doesn't include the 42-17 thrashing Gibbs put on Belichick's Browns in 1991.

People are talking a lot right now about payback for running up the score. Belichick has a long memory, and I think Gibbs just got that payback. It's a bitch, ain't it.

As for Daniels...know your football history before shooting your mouth off, fool.

As Troy Brown Ponders Retirement...

I ponder Patriot games without Troy Brown...

Troy Brown has been a Patriot for 14 years. He came into the league and joined the team with former Patriots QB Drew Bledsoe. For almost a decade I have watched this man suit up for the Patriots.

He has lasted through two distinct uniform changes, played with Andre Tippett, Bruce Armstrong, and Vincent Brown, and outlasted higher Pats picks from that year in Chris Slade and Vincent Brisby. A pick in a round of the draft that no longer even exists, Brown (if he retires) will retire with the following among his career highlights (courtesy of the Patriots Web site) -

• Brown ranks first on the Patriots all-time receptions list with 557 career receptions and also places second on the franchise's receiving yardage list with 6,366 yards.


• On Nov. 27, 2005, Brown grabbed his 500th career reception in a game at Kansas City. Brown became just the second player in Patriots history to achieve the feat (Stanley Morgan).


• In 2004, Brown earned accolades for his play on defense, showing a level of versatility unmatched in recent NFL history. After injuries had taken a toll on the Patriots' secondary, he pitched in as the team's nickel back for the final nine games of the regular season and all three of the Patriots' postseason contests. The team's third all-time leading receiver finished second on the team with three interceptions in the 2004 regular season and matched his reception total with 17 tackles on defense.


• Brown became the only player in Patriots history to record a reception and an interception in the same game when he pulled the feat against Buffalo (11/14/04).


• Brown's 321 receptions from 2000-03 are the highest four-year total in Patriots history.


• Tight end Ben Coates ranks second with a four-year total of 308 (1994-97).


• Brown is the Patriots all-time leading punt returner, topping the team's all-time lists in returns (237) and yardage (2,524), and tying for the franchise record with three punt returns for touchdowns.


• Brown's 97 catches in 2002 were the second highest total in franchise history, four behind his record 101 catches in 2001.


• Brown became the first Patriot in club history to record three 80-catch seasons (97, 2002; 101, 2001; 83, 2000).


• Brown amassed a franchise-record 16 catches vs. Kansas City (9/22/02), which ranked as the most receptions in one game in the NFL in 2002. It also tied the fourth highest single game total in NFL history shared by Keenan McCardell (10/20/96), Jerry Rice (10/20/94) and Sonny Randle (11/4/62).


• Brown has amassed 13 career 100-yard receiving games during his 12-year career, and is tied for second in Patriots history behind Stanley Morgan (39).


• Brown is the Patriots all-time leading return specialist with 4,386 combined return yards. He surpassed David Meggett's previous record of 3,999 yards in 2002.


• Brown became the franchise's all-time leading punt returner in 2002, surpassing Irving Fryar's career total of 2,055 yards. He also ranks eighth among the Patriots all-time leading kick returners (1,862 yards).


• Brown has played in 162 games during his 12-year Patriots career, the most of any active Patriot. He enters the 2005 season ranked eighth on the Patriots all-time games played list.


• Brown established a franchise record with 101 receptions during the 2001 season (96 - Ben Coates, 1994).


• Brown accumulated 1,199 receiving yards in 2001, the second highest total in franchise history (1,491-Stanley Morgan, 1986).


• Brown is the Patriots all-time leading receiver in the postseason with 47 catches and 553 yards during his 15 postseason games.


• Brown returned two punts for touchdowns in 2001 (85 yards vs. Cleveland, 12/9 and 68 yards at Carolina, 1/6) and was the only player to accomplish the feat in the NFL in 2001. He became just the third Patriot to have two punt returns for touchdowns in a single season (Irving Fryar and Mike Haynes).


• Brown recorded a 55-yard punt return for a score against Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game (01/27/02). It was the first special teams return for a score in the playoffs in franchise history and was the first punt return for a score in AFC Championship game history.


• Brown's 14.2-yard punt return average in 2001 was the second-highest in franchise history, behind Mack Herron's 14.8-yard average in 1974.


• Brown caught 83 passes and accumulated 944 receiving yards during the 2000 season. His 83 receptions were the seventh-highest single-season total in franchise history.


• In the 1996 season finale against the Giants (12/21/96) he made one of the most acrobatic receptions of the season when he snared a 13-yard pass from Drew Bledsoe on third-and-13, extending a drive which led to the game-winning touchdown in a 23-22 come from- behind victory.


• Scored his first career touchdown on one of the most unusual plays of the 1995 season when he picked up a David Meggett fumble on a kick return vs. the New York Jets (12/10) and raced down the sideline for a 75-yard touchdown.
  

Not bad for a guy that was drafted in the 8th round.

With the retirement of Brown, Tedy Bruschi will become the longest tenured Patriot with 11 seasons under his belt and the only other Patriot still left from the Bill Parcells Era.
It will, to say the least, be weird to see someone else out there wearing number 80.

If we don't see you on the field next year, good luck and thank you. It's been our pleasure.

One Helluva Football Weekend...

Wow.
The clock struck midnight yesterday on the Cinderella Saints as Chicago overcame a rough start by Grossman to lay down a serious spanking on New Orleans. While it ends possibly the most compelling story in the NFL this year. It opens up a different, yet compelling storyline which I will touch on momentarily.
First - the marquee match up of the weekend; Colts-Pats.
I heard a lot of people last week questioning how the Pats were going to keep pace with the Colts in the Dome, but I kept saying that this was going to come down to the last possession, and it did.
Brady made an uncharacteristic mistake in the last minute of a game, and the colts DB, unlike the Chargers DB did the smart thing after intercepting Brady. He sat down, eliminating any possibility of a game-changing turnover that would give the Patriots another chance.
Yesterday we watched two AFC teams play in a hard fought game that was really a tale of two halves.
The Patriots dominated the first thirty minutes and the Colts the second. Unfortunately, from my standpoint, the Colts made one more play than the Patriots did when it counted.
I commend the Colts for making the necessary adjustments to get the job done.
However, I do have to say, I have heard a lot of talk about how with a win in this round Manning gets the monkey off his back. I disagree with that. The knock was that Manning couldn't win the big one...he still hasn't. That happens in two weeks. A lot of pundits sound like they're ready coronate the Colts as the winners of the Super Bowl, and while I think that's likely, I also know that in 2001 everyone was ready to coronate what appeared to be a more talented Rams team as the Super Bowl winner. I'm not quite ready to discount Chicago.

The new compelling, yet-not-quite-as-compelling storyline in the NFL. Only because Chicago played earlier in the day yesterday, Lovie Smith became the first black head coach to reach the Super Bowl. With the Colts victory, Dungy became the second black coach to make the big game - one that will be played during the first weekend of February - Black History Month. Somehow appropriate, I think. I will address more on this later, including some important points about professional sports and its roll in the Civil Rights Movement.
A brief note on my conscious choice to not call Dungy and Smith African-American. It is a silly PC term for the overtly sensitive, and not terribly accurate. I had a professor in college, Jenny Shute, who was born and raised in Africa, yet was paler than Bill Belichick. She was arrested and exiled from her home in South Africa for fighting to end apartheid.
While I claim Irish and Italian heritage, in the end I am American. Not European-American, not really Irish-, or Italian-American either (though I do prescribe to those terms for simplicity's sake). But the fact is neither of my parents were born or raised anywhere other than in the United States, and technically, that makes me nothing other than American. We have a need to classify ourselves and to belong to groups, but, unless somebody is trying to offend (and I could get into some very Klan oriented language here to make my point, but won't) being offended about being called black as opposed to African-American is just silly.

Parcells has resigned - with Terrell Owens coming back, is that really a surprise.

JD Drew clarification - I think what you're likely to hear, probably this week, is that Drew was signed for the previously agreed on $70 million. However, what will be downplayed is the medical language/clause that will allow the Sox to get off the hook for a significant portion of that money should Drew's health become an issue.

Happy trails Christopher Trotman Nixon and good luck in Cleveland. Right field won't be quite the same without you...and don't take this the wrong way, I enjoyed watching you play, but realistically, right field hasn't been the same since Dwight Evans headed for Baltimore.

Two weeks from today we enter what I call The Black Time. It is the time between football and baseball when all there is left is basketball and hockey. I don't think basketball has been all that entertaining since about 1994 (however, I did enjoy the finals three years ago between Detroit and Los Angeles) when the game became less about team than it did about finding a star with just a bunch of guys. Hockey...well I never thought much of hockey from a broadcast perspective in spite of playing street hockey for eight seasons growing up. During The Black Time, I will be looking at some of the sports that I believe deserve more attention than they're getting, and speculate on some of the reasons that these sports are struggling.