The Cardiac Kids

I'm not a big basketball fan. I don't watch a whole lot of it until the playoffs come around - and even then, I watch a whole lot less than most basketball fans.

That said, with the exception of the one blow-out win, the Celtics aren't making this easy on their fan-base. Through five playoff games the Celtics and bulls have played four overtime periods following the end of regulation three times. In all but one game the margin of victory has been three points or less. I could be wrong, but I would venture to say that this hasn't ever happened before in a contest between the two and seven seeds in the NBA playoffs.

There's a chance that the results would be different if Kevin Garnett were on the floor, but with the way the Bulls are playing, I'm not convinced that would be true. Maybe one of the other close games swings in the favor of the Celtics, but I don't know that they would have opened up a big lead on Chicago even with the big man in the middle.

Over on the diamond -

So the Sox were handed their first loss in eleven games. Not surprisingly, it came during a Brad Penny start. Penny failed to make it out of the third inning, giving up seven runs (four earned), which has put him on a pace for roughly one earned run per inning worked.

One has to wonder how many more starts Penny will get before he gets yanked from the starting rotation.

The Penny signing I still maintain was a smart signing. For his career he has generally had an ERA between 3.00 and 4.75 and over the course of the previous nine seasons has averaged 10.5 wins per season. That included last year's off year when Penny had an ERA over 6.00 and started fewer than 20 games for the first time in his career.

Additionally, Penny signed a small money contract of $5 million that can earn an additional $3 million in performance bonuses: $500,000 each for 160 innings or 55 games as pitcher, 170-65 and 180-75; $500,000 for 190 innings or 35 games finished, and $1 million for 200 innings or 50 games finished. Right now I would say odds are he won't earn those incentives unless he turns it around soon.

My guess, if he struggles through his next four or five starts, and Daisuke Matsuzaka comes back strong, that Penny will end up on the DL with "arm fatigue" like Matsuzaka did and that Justin Masterson will get a few more turns in the rotation.

Bon Voyage, Ellis Hobbs...

I sincerely wish Ellis Hobbs the best as he moves onto a new career in Philadelphia. Hobbs will be remembered by many, quite unfairly, as being the goat in the Super Bowl against the Giants. At the end of the game, Hobbs - playing with a pulled groin and a badly damaged shoulder - was asked to cover Plaxico Burress on the game deciding play.

Twice earlier in the same drive, however, Asante Samuel screwed the pooch...badly. Samuel had a game-clinching interception go through his hands on one play, and was the cover guy on David Tyree on the helmet catch. Samuel can be seen in certain angles on the play jogging behind Tyree rather than running with him. Had Samuel been where he was supposed to be, it's unlikely that Tyree would have come down with the ball on that third down play.

Good luck Ellis, you played hard for us and your kick returns were things of beauty.

And a final gift for my football fan readers -

Tidbits

Congrats to Mackenzie Brown, the 12-year old little leaguer from Bayonne who recently tossed a perfect game. It was the first in the history of that little league. She mowed down the entire team she faced - all boys - and in so doing, she got to throw out the first pitch at Saturday's game between the Mets and Nats at CitiField.

The Sox have now won 11 in a row. I can't help but think it's because a 42 year-old knuckleballer put the team on his shoulders when they needed someone to do it, and were it not for that near no-no by Tim Wakefield 11 games ago, the team might still be struggling.

Another note regarding the pitching - Jonathan Papelbon is on pace for 40 saves this season. Former Dodgers closer Takashi Saito could have close to 20, playing Jesse Orosco to Papelbon's Roger McDowell. Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen were tied for second on the team last season with two a piece to Paps' 41. From 1985-88, the wacky McDowell averaged 20 saves per season for the Mets while Orosco, the older veteran, averaged 18 per season as a complimentary piece. While not quite the same, it will be the first time since Papelbon became the team's closer that another pitcher has reached double digits in saves - providing the pace continues. The last time another pitcher even had more than five saves as a member of the Sox was when Mike Timlin racked up nine saves in 2006.

It's been nice to see the Red Sox bats come to life over the last eleven games. Through the first eight, it was as though they were still in extended Spring Training. If the Sox miss the playoffs by a game or two, that 2-6 start will weigh heavily on the team.

One draft note - I have to say that I'm surprised. I really thought that if Clay Matthews, Jr. were available when the Pats were picking that he would be a member of the Patriots today. The flip side - while the team's last two drafts have only been okay, this is a team that has averaged 12 wins per season since 2001, and has missed the playoffs only once in that time - last year when they still won 11 games. So...what do I know?

Cashing out

It was a metaphorical jolly stomping in the Fens - an early season referendum on the moves made by Yankees' GM Brian Cashman.

The Sox beat the Yanks in every conceivable way over a three game stretch - out-slugging, out pitching, and just plain out-executing the highest paid team in the majors. The Yankees, with over $200 million in annual salary (since the start of the 2005 season the Steinbrenners have spent over $1 billion on the team and seen their record slide) - again - the Bombers are off to a 9-9 start, have the worst bullpen in baseball, and have the worst overall ERA of any pitching staff in the majors.

Here's what else $200 million has bought New York -

A team outscored 25-16 in three games by their arch-rival.

A team that saw 11 runs and two leads evaporate when the bullpen entered the game.

A team whose second biggest free-agent pitching acquisition was smoked for eight earned after being spotted a 6-0 lead.

A team that saw home stolen on them with two outs in a close game. Let's face it - that last one shows a complete lack of respect for the Yankees. There's no aura left, they're just another team.

And to compound matters - the Red Sox don't even have the second highest payroll in baseball - they're fourth (and a lot closer to being seventh than they are to being third). They lost ugly, are unable to hold a lead, and just look brutal in the field (great play at first by the sure-handed Mark Texiera, huh?).

Anyone else wondering which Celtic team is going to show up for game five? The one that's shot ugly in the close games, or the one that dismantled the Bulls on their home-court in game three?

Kudos to the Bruins for moving on. It would be nice to see Boston land the Stanley Cup before the end of the decade to get that final jewel in the championship crown for the big four. They do it, that will mean that between 2001 and now the city will be home to three Super Bowls, two World Series, an NBA (I still think a second one of these is unlikely this year) and an NHL championship. Not bad.

Dirty Sanchez

Okay, so maybe I shouldn't have gone there, but I want to address the soaring stock of USC's Mark Sanchez...

A lot of teams seem to be falling over themselves for this kid since the Combine.

Yes, he says the right things, and is evidently very personable, but the odds are against him as a successful starting quarterback in the NFL.

His supporters will point out that he started for USC - a pro-style offense - that he started at USC while Matt Cassel did not, that he lost only one game in his only full season as a starter. But that's really the problem - he's had only one full season. That's been a real trap for teams - scouts get one year looking at a guy who might put up great numbers against mediocre competition. I will come back to Cassel.

Consider - Michael Vick started for two seasons in college and never had a completion percentage as high as 59 percent. That's translated to a completion percentage below 54 in the NFL.

Akili Smith had only one full season in college as a starter and the Bengals made him a number one pick back in 1999. He was 3-14 in the NFL and out of the league in four seasons.

There's actually a long list of college short timers that went high and ended up NFL busts. The lack of information works to a player's favor and against the teams.

Now, onto the Cassel conundrum. People will point out that Cassel, without a college start, is a reason that Sanchez can be successful. While people will argue that, it's not an accurate comparison. Cassel, like quarterbacks 25 years ago, went through the sort of apprenticeship process that was common around the league. Cassel spent four preseasons preparing, three full seasons of practice reps with a professional team, lining up against professional defenses, and even appeared in 14 regular season professional games, racking up 22 completions on 39 attempts before getting his season as a starter. It's not the same as getting a season against college competition.

I'm not saying that Sanchez can't or won't be successful in the NFL. What I am saying is that if he comes into a team and is expected to be the starter when he gets there, then it's highly unlikely that he'll have a good career. If he can go someplace and sit a couple of years and learn the pro-game, he'll be much more likely to be successful.

Given the way quarterbacks are just thrown to the wolves, I have to say I have my doubts.

Getting drafty and some weekend observations...

I'm not a big draft guy.

In spite of how much I enjoy football, I'm not one of those guys who sits down and spends hours watching the draft. I'll flip to it, check the ticker, see who the Patriots picked, but I'm not going to wait and see - in part because I'm not really a college football guy.

That said, I find certain things related to the draft fascinating.

Let's start with the Combine...

Overall, I don't really believe this to be a useless exercise, but I do think the format and some of the perceptions surrounding it to be flawed. The idea that someone should slip precipitously due to a bad 40 time is silly, unless there are mitigating circumstances.

Let's face it, most of these guys teams already have two to four years worth of film on, unless they couldn't crack the line-up until their final year of college. Unless a guy shows up fat, out of shape, and acts like a bone-head, the workout numbers are pointless. The idea that a player can improve their positioning based on a great workout as opposed to what they did on the field is foolish. Some of the biggest draft busts were workout warriors at the Combine. Anyone remember Mike Mammula, the defensive end out of BC? He vaulted himself into the top ten with a monster performance at the Combine, when, realistically, he would likely have been better off as a late first or second round pick - expectations would have been different, and possibly his career as a result.

I'm not saying that they shouldn't have the attendees workout. To the contrary, I believe it allows a team to determine the dedication of the player, but I think much too much stock is given to the numbers that come out of these workouts. And some team is going to make someone a much higher pick in the draft than he deserves because of it.

Sox it to 'Em...

Evidently the Orioles are the tonic for what ails 'em. The Red Sox, coming off a weak start to the season got strong starts from Jon Lester, Justin Masterson, and Tim Wakefield after starting the season 2-6 - and one solid start from Josh Beckett (who continues to struggle with the big inning), the Sox have fought their way back to a 7-6 record. Coincidently, the Salem Red Sox (A ball), met with Frederick Keys for a three game set on Friday, and swept the Orioles A-level affiliate.

A few quick observations -

Lester reportedly looked like the pitcher that was the de facto ace of the staff last season. Hopefully the first two games was just Lester finding his footing in the new season - if so, then the Sox shouldn't have any issues with the starting staff moving forward.

As much as a like what Daisuke Matsuzaka potentially brings to the mound, I have to admit that he makes me nervous as the number two starter. There's something about the way he runs counts up that reminds me a little too much of Heathcliff Sclocumb. Yes, he's better than Slocumb, but his inneficiency tends to be a little nerve wracking. Masterson, on the other hand, filling in for Dice, was quite efficient in walking only two over 5 1/3 innings.

Wakefield's a monster asset. Sure, knuckleballers are the Russian-roullette revolvers of the pitching world, but Wakefield's complete game against the A's before the off-day at the end of last week gave the bullpen a much needed rest, and was the catalyst for what's happening now.

Speaking of Wake, you gotta love the way George Kottarras is calling the game when Wake is pitching. I would love to see if he could work the batting average a bit with some more starts - see if he's the Sox starting back-up of the future.

The jury's still out regarding his bat, but I like what I'm seeing of Nick Green in the field.

One final note...

The Yankees can't be happy that Chien-Ming Wang has been beaten like a cheap pinata this season. With no options, Wang would have to pass through waivers to work out his problems in the minors. What team would claim a pitcher that's 0-3 with a 34.50 ERA over six innings spanning three starts?

Sure, there's someone likely to claim him off waivers, but the Yankees aren't going to let that happen. The problem is, after his four out eight earned run start, what do the Yankees do about him?

Minor activities and scheduling thoughts

Friday night in Frederick, MD, a short drive from the Smith homestead, is going to be a fun one. Frederick is the home to the Single A Frederick Keys - part of the Carolina League, and opponent to the Salem Red Sox, who happen to be in town this weekend.

When I first moved to the area the Wilmington Blue Rocks were the Red Sox affiliate that played the Keys, and then the Blue Rocks changed their major league affiliate, leaving me sans Sox prospects to watch. This weekend I get to watch five of the Sox top 20 prospects - Ryan Kalish, Luis Exposito, Yamaico Navarro, Che-Hsuan Lin, and Kyle Weiland - as well as Jonathan Paplebon's brother Josh.

I'll be at the game at Harry Grove Stadium on Friday night with the family, but will probably leave long before the end of the game (hard to stay till the end with a 20-month old), but it's always a fun time. My seven-year old loves the kids' zone with the carousel, and my wife loves the fact that the stadium serves beer from both of the town's brew pubs.

It'll be my first time to the stadium this season. For those of you baseball fans who have never made it to a minor league game, I highly recommend it.

Pats Schedule...

As I mentioned yesterday, I believe that the strength of schedule that people talk about at this time of year is a faulty way to view the difficulties of the coming season. It has no bearing - before last season the Dolphins were a one win team, this season they go in having won 11, the previous season was no predictor of future success.

Based on last season's results, the Pats have the third hardest schedule in the NFL. That said - Miami is sneaking up on no one this season, and while it's possible they might repeat their 11 win performance that won them the AFC East last season, I don't think that they're going to surprise anyone with the Wildcat offense in 2009 and they'll slide. The Jets currently have no quarterback, and key players on the Bills are going to start the season suspended, putting Buffalo into an early hole. And that's just the AFC East. There are definitely issues with some of the other teams as well - are Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan going to have surprise seasons again? I don't think so.

I could go on, but I'm going to address another interesting quirk in the schedule. What happens when the Pats hit the bad weather months of November and December? Let's look at the schedule...

After the bye week at the beginning of November in week 8, the Pats play out the string as follows:

Sun 11/8/2009	1:00 PM	vs	Dolphins	WBZ / CBS
Sun 11/15/2009	8:20 PM	@	Colts	WHDH / NBC
Sun 11/22/2009	4:15 PM	vs	Jets	WBZ / CBS
Mon 11/30/2009	8:30 PM	@	Saints	WCVB / ESPN
Sun 12/6/2009	8:20 PM	@	Dolphins	WHDH / NBC
Sun 12/13/2009	1:00 PM	vs	Panthers
Sun 12/20/2009	1:00 PM	@	Bills	WBZ / CBS
Sun 12/27/2009	1:00 PM	vs	Jaguars	WBZ / CBS
Sun 1/3/2010	1:00 PM	@	Texans	WBZ / CBS

So - in New York, at home, in Houston, at Indy, at home, at home, in New Orleans, at home, at Buffalo.

With the exception of the game at Buffalo in December, the bad weather games the Pats really face are at home in December against the Panthers, and Jaguars, and maybe the November contest against the Jets. Otherwise the Pats are playing in warm climates, or domes. At first glance that might not seem to be important, but for anyone that remembers the way the Pats passing game slowed down at the tail end of the season during their 16-0 run, they might want to think about how Tom Brady and the receiving corps might thrive in some of these late-season contests.

Fewer late season games in cold and wind might mean for a more prolific late season offense, helping to keep the defense off the field.

Back again...

So, after a weekend at the 'rents house with all the siblings and assorted nieces, and a week wherein I've been working on an article for a local business magazine, I finally have some time to look at some of the current sports stories...

Boy did the Sox, and the bullpen need that start from Tim Wakefield. Wake had the knuckleball working so well he took a no-hitter into the eighth only a day after Terry Francona was forced to use six relievers due to the fact that Daisuke Matsuzaka couldn't get past the first inning.

While it was good to get the win, I think whether the team won or lost was irrelevant. The fact that Wake gave the team a complete game, however, was huge, and needed more than anything else.

If the Celtics don't get a reasonably healthy Kevin Garnett back...well, let's just say I don't see the team making it to the finals. They got absolutely waxed by the Cavaliers, and eked out a win against a far inferior Sixers team. Playing like that right now could get them ousted in the first round.

That's one hell of a schedule that the Patriots are facing this season. Based on their opponents' records from last season, the Pats have the third hardest road to the post season based on strength of schedule facing only two teams that had a sub-.500 record last season, and only two other teams that had a record as bad as .500.

That said, I would like to note that, for all of that, the strength of schedule as a metric for the difficulty of season means nothing at this time of year - zip. nada. zilch. There are plenty of fans that buy into, though. Last season the Pats started the season with the easiest strength of schedule based on the fact that the teams they were facing were 99-157 in 2007 with games against only 4 of 2007's playoff teams. Those same teams improved by 24 games last season to reflect an aggregate record of 123-133 with games against six of playoff teams, including contests against both of the Super Bowl contestants. That moved the Patriots into the middle of the pack in regards to strength of schedule by the end of the season.

CC Rider

Yesterday was a good day for me.

I finished my taxes only to find I was getting a big, fat refund, and CC Sabathia looked about how I expected him to.

The Yankees' two big off-season acquisitions for the just north of Manhattan Project - Fat Man (Sabathia), and Little Boy (Mark Teixiera), were ugly in their debuts for the Bronx Bommahs. Fat Man's return to the American League, a place where his career stats have always screamed number two starter, was uninspired. The Yankees would-be-ace failed to get out of the fifth inning, giving up six earned runs in four-and-a-third innings for a rousing 12.46 ERA .

I don't expect that Sabathia will be this bad during the course of the season. But I also don't expect him to be good. He dominated the hitter's B-League, tearing up the NL Central, but has only thrice in his eight seasons had an ERA below 3.60 over the course of a full season. And only twice in the AL has he managed an ERA below that number (last season he was at 3.83 before the trade). Additionally, this is a man coming off the two highest inning total of his career (241 in 2007, and 253 in 2008), and he's not exactly a fitness freak. And I addressed that in a previous post when I wrote -

I look at the Yankees off-season and can't help think that they learned nothing from the Carl Pavano signing. Nor have they learned anything from the history of fat pitchers.

The CC Sabathia signing might work well for them in the regular season for the first year or two, but eight seasons? That's nuts.

Sid Fernandez, who had weight issues, last started more than 20 games at age 29. Former Red Sox reliever Rich "El Guapo/the human zeppelin" Garces was respectable until the age of 30. At 31 he posted a 7.59 ERA and was out of baseball after that season. Once dominant Bartolo Colon had an eight season stretch wherein he pitched fewer than 200 innings only once (188 in 2000) and averaged 32.6 starts per season. When he turned 33 he went away - compiling a total of 35 starts and fewer than 200 combined innings over the final three seasons of his career. Sabathia turns 30 in 2010.

The future is not bright for him.

As for Mark Teixiera, I expect he will likely be in line with his career averages when the smoke clears, but putting up a big donut in four at bats, leaving four men on and only getting on base once - not the start that Hank and Hal were hoping for, I'm sure.

An absolute mugging

My initial thought was to describe the Bears trade for Jay Cutler an absolute mugging - the bears traded Kyle Orton and this year's first and third round picks as well as next year's first rounder for Cutler and Denver's fifth round pick this year. My wife pointed out that when one is mugged that the muggee doesn't look at the mugger and say, "here, take my credit cards and cash, and I'll put up some token resistance by making a half-hearted effort to scratch your face."

She's right. No. This was more like Denver telling the Bears to bend over and drop trou, and the Bears saying back, "with Vaseline or without?"

This was an absolute violation of the Catholic priest variety.

As mediocre as Kyle Orton has been, Cutler hasn't actually been significantly better. A quick look -

In three seasons Orton has played in 33 games while Cutler has played in 37 games. I will give Orton's actual numbers and his 37 game projections...

Yes, Cutler has a better completion percentage and put up more yardage - 62.5 percent and 9024 yards to Orton's 55.3 and 5319 yards (5964 over 37 games), but Cutler has also been throwing to the likes of Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Javon Walker and Rod Smith. Orton's two best targets in the last three seasons would both be picked after any one of the four above - Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian. The trade will answer the question as to whether the receivers made the QB or vice versa with these two.

But let's look at some other telling stats...

Cutler has thrown 37 interceptions in 37 games, Orton has had 27 in 33. Cutler has an average of 11.8 yards per catch to Orton's 10.5.

But here are some of the really important ones - Orton is 21-12 with and was instrumental in getting the Bears to at least one playoff appearance. Cutler is 17-20 with no playoff appearances. Cutler's best season was 8-8. Orton's? 10-5.

Considering that Cutler was drafted 11th and Orton 106th, I would expect more from Cutler than this.

And if I were a Bears fan this morning, I would be buying something to sooth that burning feeling coming from my sphincter.

Losing the game of chicken...

or Beware the Idiots of March...

A little translation of professional athlete speak - I want the team to show it's committed to me. Translation - I want to see more money in a new contract.

From New York Newsday -

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reported on the night of March 15, the day after Josh McDaniels met with [Jay] Cutler and his agent, Bus Cook, that the pair requested a trade. Which the Broncos verified.

"The Denver Broncos confirm that Jay Cutler has requested a trade," a team spokesman told the AP March 16.

Cutler, during what seemed an unambiguous interview, told Mortensen March 15, "Really, it's best for me to move on."

From a Fox report -

"I was surprised they decided to trade me this soon," Cutler said. "I didn't want to get traded. This wasn't me. (The Broncos) had been going back and forth saying things, wanting me to be their quarterback and then they didn't."

"I really didn't want this. I love Denver. I really like my teammates. I didn't want it to get this far."

If Jay Cutler has any credibility in any locker room anywhere ever again, I will be sorely disappointed in his future teammates. So...was he bluffing in order to get a new contract? Did he think that by showing up his new coach and GM that he was showing his Broncos teammates his sterling leadership qualities? Is this guy really this big an idiot?

Some really quick hits...

Good win for the Celtics against a Bobcats team that's beginning to peak at the right time for a playoff run.

Not really surprised that Clay Buchholz was sent to Pawtucket to start the season, but I will be surprised if we don't see him in Fenway again sometime this season.

Tommy Lasorda just doesn't get it. In his defense of nephew Mike Piazza (related to the recent allegations of steroid use), Lasorda said that Piazza busted his ass in the weight room. That was part of his reasoning that his nephew couldn't have been using. I guess he doesn't know that steroids don't magically give one muscles, that you have to spend time in the weight room or you just get fat. He also uses the idea that Piazza is church-going in his defense of his nephew.

Let's get something straight here - just because someone is inherently a good person, or regularly attends church, that doesn't exempt them from doing something bad or stupid. Andy Pettitte, by all accounts, is a very religious guy, and a good guy in the locker room. Nailed for HGH. Then of course history is littered with religious people that just were not good human beings - take Tomás de Torquemada or Hitler (by all accounts, extremely religious). And please don't think I'm comparing Piazza to Hitler or the grand inquisitor of the Spanish Inquisition - I'm only trying to point out that religiousness is no defense and no guarantee of a person being good.

It looks like Donte Stallworth is getting charged by Miami authorities. It sounds like it's what I previously called. This should surprise no one, and should Stallworth work out a deal that avoids jail time, he's still going to miss games due to whatever suspension is handed down for his lapse in judgement.

April Fools

We are on the precipice of a pagan holiday, once a celebration of the start of the spring planting season, All Fool's Day has developed into a day of practical jokes both erudite (see George Plympton's "Curious Case of Sid Finch") and ridiculous (see the idiot that put a whoopee cushion under his boss's ass). In honor of the day, I want to address some of the biggest fools we've had to deal with as sports fans in recent days.

Here five of my favorites. They are in no particular order -

Michael Vick - As noted here yesterday, this fool thinks he's going to come back from his legal issues and garner a contract worth $10 million per season as a quarterback in the NFL. That's the number he used to write his bankruptcy plan, the plan he's using to repay creditors. This is a man that, at best, might get a job as a back-up quarterback, and it's not even assured that his jail time is done given the fact that he may have plundered his entertainment marketing company, MV7's pension plan to pay some of his debts.

Plaxico Burress - This fool derailed the Giants Super Bowl hopes when he shot himself in the leg. In a nightclub. With an unregistered (illegally owned) handgun. Now he's in court, trying to work out a plea deal (adjourned until June 15). I guarantee that any plea will include jail time, and the man will miss at the very least a part of the season due to the impending suspension.

Alex Rodriguez - To put it simply, this is a man that can't get out of his own way. In the last year he has been caught cheating on his wife, cheating the game of baseball, and cheating the fans. He's engaged in interviews that, within days of each other, contradicted his previous interviews. Heap that on top of a guy whose batting average, over the course of his career, is at its lowest in September (.285), and October (.250), (in no other month is his batting average below .299) you have a paper lion who needs to figure out how not to be his own worst enemy.

Pacman Jones - It's hard to know where to start with this bonehead. To put it succinctly, once thought to be one of the up and coming corners when with Tennessee, Jones' legal issues have made him radioactive around the league, but not so much so that Dallas wasn't willing to give him a flyer. After a lackluster season with the Cowboys, combined with his legal issues, Jones has failed to generate any interest - hell he's failed to generate even rumors of interest - in his services, and may have effectively worked his way out of the league.

Al Davis - Once the owner of the NFL's resident bad boys, and once a winning coach in his own right, Davis has become the league's unintentional jester. Changing coaches far more frequently than he changes 1970's jumpsuits, Davis has created instability at the team's most important position (coach), drafted poorly, undermined the authority of his coach, and has invariably blamed his team's failings on the coaching. The only common thread in his team's failures - Al Davis. It doesn't take a genius to figure this one out.

Celebrate the fools, it's their time.

Ankiel biter...

By the age of 20 Rick Ankiel had logged 208 innings pitched over the course of 40 appearances (35 starts) that spanned his rookie season and a September call-up when he was 19. He did it all with a very respectable 3.46 ERA.

He was a promising young pitcher with enormous upside. He was the sort of talent that general managers expect to be anchoring a staff by the precocious age of 25.

Instead, Ankiel melted down, wilting under the pressure of being the rising star with only 11 more appearances spanning only 36 total innings during the 2001 and 2004 seasons. During that time he gave up 25 earned runs (6.25 ERA), with a whopping 66 base runners. He couldn't have found the strike zone even if he were pitching to a line-up with the likes of Shaq, Yao Ming, and Robert Parrish.

Why, you might ask, is Ankiel, who disappeared from the mound by end of the 2004 season relevant right now. It's summed up with two words - Dontrelle Willis.

Between the 2007 and 2008 seasons the then free agent pitcher was considered the big prize of the hot stove season. On forum after forum there were members of Red Sox Nation calling for Theo Epstein to run out and trade for the D-Train. Readers here may recall, I railed against this, in no small part due to the fact that Willis was looking for Ace money in an extension, and I didn't think the man could carry a staff for a season.

Now, a little more than a year removed from the trade and contract extension that now has netted Willis another $22 million over the next two seasons, the pitcher finds himself on the verge of being out of the minors - even though the Tigers are on the hook for the $22 mil.

Willis, in his time on Detroit's dime will have earned $29 million for pitching a total of 24 innings. Twenty-four innings of brutal, bullpen destroying starts during which he gave up 25 runs.

While I didn't think Willis was any better than a third starter at best, and I saw his career heading in the wrong direction, I didn't think he would go Rick Ankiel and just drive his career off the edge of a cliff a-la Bill Murray in Groundhog Day. As for the medical excuse they came up with - I might be wrong about this, but something sounds really fishy about an anxiety disorder being diagnosed by blood tests. Never heard of that before.

The only question that remains is can Willis reinvent himself like Ankiel? If he wants to continue in baseball, then he needs to.

Wrapping the weekend

Condolences to Texans running back Ryan Moats who had to deal with a special level of stupidity last week while his mother-in-law lay dying in a hospital bed. If you click on the link and read the article, take the time to watch the footage of what happened.

Currently, the officer who detained Moats is on a paid suspension while the incident is under investigation.

My own opinion - if a police officer commits an act so egregious that it merits a suspension, then the person shouldn't get paid for getting to stay at home. I'm not saying the money should be lost either, should the officer be found to have acted properly - I think that the officer's pay should be held in trust until the end of any investigation. Should the officer be cleared, then that person receives their back pay. If the officer is found guilty, then the pay is forfeit. As the system is, the moron who detained Ryan Moats is, in essence, getting a paid vacation for what he did.

That's just ridiculous.

Brad Wilkerson was informed this weekend by Terry Francona that he would not be making the team. I still say this was a good signing. It was a low risk signing with the potential for a big payoff if Wilkerson reverted to his earlier career form. He didn't and now he's gone without the team in the hole for a big paycheck.

Michael Vick lives in a fantasy world...

According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution,

The embattled Atlanta Falcons quarterback is hoping to earn as much as $10 million a year or more, according to court filings in his bankruptcy case. Under the plan he submitted to the court, Vick would keep the first $750,000 of his annual income over the next five years. After that, a percentage would go to his creditors based on a sliding scale.

I don't know who he's talking to that is telling him he'll be able to earn $10 million per year, but that number isn't the least bit realistic.

There are a few basic things that Vick needs to realize - one; he's never going to make that sort of annual salary in the NFL again. Two; few, if any, teams will give him a shot as their quarterback. Three; he's going to be on a really short leash wherever he goes, if anywhere. Like Pacman Jones short. He screws up, he misses a meeting and forgets to call the office, he accidentally spits on the coaches shoes, he's gone.

This isn't just about the incarceration - this is about a guy who has failed his first team in the NFL on every conceivable level. The quarterback is supposed to be the face of the franchise and no team is going to want to market a convicted felon, animal abuser, and drug user to families in their fan base. Nor are they going to want to have to deal with the hard sell that's trying to tell 52 other guys in the locker room that they need to follow the guy that didn't want to put the extra time in when he played for Atlanta, because he had illegal enterprises that took precedent over the team. I could go on, but I think I made my point.

Digging the hole ever deeper

So Michael Vick is back in the news again, and yet again, it's for the wrong reasons.

I have linked to a reasonable, but incomplete AP article on the fact that Vick is being targeted by federal authorities again. This time for illegally dipping into MV7's, his company's, pension plan to the tune of $1.7 million in order to benefit himself. Those benefits included using at least a portion of the money to pay restitution ordered as part of his dog fighting conviction/plea.

As the trustee of a company's pension plan, this is a big federal no no.

The AP story fails to mention how. So let's address that...

When Vick entered his plea to the dog fighting charges, he was a first time offender, and as such, got off with a light sentence based on sentencing guidelines. Now the U.S. Department of Labor is alleging that Vick, in order to address one federal offense, committed a second one. The law that Vick allegedly violated is US Code: Title 18, Part 1, Chapter 31, Section 664 and reads as follows -

Any person who embezzles, steals, or unlawfully and willfully abstracts or converts to his own use or to the use of another, any of the moneys, funds, securities, premiums, credits, property, or other assets of any employee welfare benefit plan or employee pension benefit plan, or of any fund connected therewith, shall be fined under this title, or imprisoned not more than five years, or both.

As used in this section, the term “any employee welfare benefit plan or employee pension benefit plan” means any employee benefit plan subject to any provision of title I of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974.

It is interesting to note that Vick's bankruptcy does not absolve him of his fiscal responsibility to any pension plan he set up for his employees. And, if the allegation is true, Vick, in essence, stole $1.7 million from his employees, apparently with the aid of two of his fiscal advisers.

This severely complicates things going forward for Vick. According to the AP report -

Vick's plan for paying his creditors is based largely on his intention to resume his NFL career. Vick was suspended indefinitely after his 2007 indictment, and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has said he will review Vick's status after he is released.

The Falcons still hold the contract rights to Vick but have said they will try to trade him. Vick's bankruptcy plan would allow him to keep the first $750,000 of his annual pay. After that, a percentage would go to his creditors based on a sliding scale.

In essence, Vick's future earnings are already being garnished to pay off his debts and the plan is based on the idea that he will return to playing football. As if Goodell didn't have enough ammo in regards to Vick between the dog fighting, lying to the NFL, and getting nailed for drug use while awaiting trial, now there's this. With this additional violation of federal statute, not only does it allow Roger Goodell to extend the suspension, it also looks like there may very well be additional jail time for Vick, whose stupidity seems to know no bounds.

And before I have the occasional meat-head that yells that it's a racial thing and the government is just trying to keep a black man down, let's remember that Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Warren Moon have all done quite well in spite of their bone-headed moves, and none of them ended up in jail.

Rapid fire again

It's been released to the press that the pedestrian struck by Donte Stallworth was not in the crosswalk at the time of the accident, nor was Stallworth driving excessively fast at only ten miles per hour over the speed limit. In spite of reports of intoxication, those two facts might be enough to keep Florida authorities from pursuing the most serious of possible charges - vehicular manslaughter, and it's likely those two facts will keep the wide receiver our of jail.

Anyone else see OLB Clay Matthews III, as a strong candidate for the Pats' first pick in the draft if he's still around at the 23rd pick? The guy's a 6' 3" 246 pound outside backer with sterling blood lines, being the son of former NFL linebacker Clay Matthews, Jr (19 seasons for the Falcons and Browns - including time playing for Bill Belichick), grandson of Clay Matthews (four seasons in the 1950's as an offensive tackle and defensive end for the 49ers), and nephew of former offensive lineman Bruce Matthews (Oilers/Titans, 19 seasons).

It's just a hunch that we'll see him in a Pats uni this year, but I also thought there was a fair chance that the team would make a run at Zack DeOssie given Belichick's familiarity with the family. So, who knows?

Scouting reports from the WBC say that Daisuke Matsuzaka was pounding the strike zone with his fastball and pitching less tentatively than he did during last season. The Diceman wasn't the most dominant pitcher in the tournament, but he wasn't far off in posting a 2.45 ERA over 14.2 innings. He gave up only four runs on 14 hits along with five walks and 13 strikeouts (making his WHIP 1.30). Not bad for going against (theoretically) the best that the world has to offer.

Should Matsuzaka build off of this, and stay aggressive during the season, the Sox likely have at least four starters that will win at least 12 games between Dice, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Wakefield. If Penny can stay healthy and return to pre-Dodger form, we could be looking at a staff that has four starters winning at least 15 games and a fifth winning at least 12. My guess is that Beckett, Dice and Lester all end up between 16 and 20 wins, Penny between 14 and 16, and Wake at around 12 or 13 (assuming the staff remains reasonably healthy). That means that from the rotation alone we could be looking in the range of 80 wins.

I liked what I saw of George Kottaras in last night's preseason match up against the Yankees.

It looks like Lance Armstrong's come-back bid has been slowed down severely. Armstrong, the single most dominant force in the sport of Cycling - ever - broke his collar bone during a recent stage of the Vuelta of Castilla and Leon race in northern Spain. Some had speculated that this might keep him out of the sport's premier event, the Tour de France.

He'll ride in it, I just don't know that he will be in top form and that he will be able to compete for the yellow jersey.

According to literature, his injury will take six to eight weeks to heal. That would put him on schedule to possibly be healthy, but not particularly competitive in the Giro d'Italia on May 9th - the last major race he can possibly use as a tune-up before the grueling TdF.

Given I thought he, despite his age and the time he had taken off, was the likely favorite going into the Tour before the accident, I think this makes the race more compelling.

Rounding up loose ends...

By now I'm sure anyone who reads this blog is aware that former Patriots receiver Donte Stallworth was involved in an unfortunate incident recently wherein he struck and killed a pedestrian. At this writing charges have not been filed, but given that his blood alcohol level was well over the legal limit, it is only a matter of time.

At the very least this will result in a suspension for Stallworth, and probably jail time. This is the sort of thing that can potentially serve from 5 to 15 years, depending on what they have determined the degree of the offense to be. I expect a deal to be cut that will either allow Stallworth to stay out of jail, or to serve a minimum amount of time - meaning I don't believe he will be found guilty of vehicular manslaughter as provided by the Florida State Penal Code.

And here are five things I think based on what I have seen the last week -

1. For all the injuries the Celtics have suffered, I think they have happened with plenty of time for the Green to get healthy. Once healthy, I think that it was more important for the Cavs to get the one seed than the Celtics. Should the current seeded positions remain constant, I believe we'll see the C's play the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. If the C's steal a game in Cleveland early in the series, then I think the series favors them.
2. I firmly believe that Junichi Tazawa will make his big league debut this season as a back of the rotation/middle reliever.
3. This is a guess, but it seems to me that Theo is giving George Kottaras the opportunity to show the organization that he is the heir-apparent to Jason Varitek. My bet would be, given the glut of pitching prospects in the minors, if Kottaras struggles, or at least fails to even show flashes during the regular season, then and only then will we see a trade with Texas consummated for one of their catchers.
4. I don't think that the Patriots are done with the defensive overhaul - I've said it before and will say it again: Jason Taylor is the most logical and Belichick-ian choice to play opposite Adalius Thomas. He is likely to be signed by the team sometime after the draft and will take less money to go to the Pats just for the chance to win. I also think that Shawn Crable will get a long look in training camp as the future at that same location.
5. I think Yankee fans are going to have a tough April. The team's best early season player, Alex Rodriguez, is likely to miss the first month of the season, CC Sabathia has huffed and puffed his way to a Spring Training ERA that is dwarfed only by his Michelinman-like physique and their big-name in-the-field acquisition, Mark Texiera, is a notorious slow starter (.259 career hitter for the month of April, his next lowest monthly average - .282 in July). I firmly believe this is a team that's on track to be playing catch-up again, and they will be chasing both the Red Sox and the Rays.
   

Rapid Fire

And not the Brandon Lee flick...

A-Rod, known better in some circles as Slappy McBluelips, is in the news again for yet another boneheaded thing. Slappy posed for a series of sultry photos for Details Magazine, which included a shot of the man making out with the person he loves the most - himself.

There are a lot of stupid things he's done - the hand slap, the yell rounding third, the steroids (rumored to go back as far as high school - which would explain no significant spike in his career stats), his series of contradictory explanations regarding the steroids, getting caught with the stripper in Toronto - but somehow I don't see this flying in the locker room.

The more I think about it, the less likely I think Julius Peppers ends up in New England. I believe that the Pats may have called the Panthers to see what it would take, but I also think that the numbers don't add up - yes, signing him would make it likely that some of the other players would have to be allowed to walk, but I also think for Peppers to come into the fold, he would have to take a considerable cut from what he would make as a franchise player. The Pats aren't going to pay more for Peppers than they do for Tom Brady.

That doesn't even take into account that I find it hard to believe that the Pats would pay out big money to someone who has never played the position.

Also, staying with Peppers, for somebody who wants desperately out of Carolina, he's virtually handcuffed himself by not signing the franchise tender. Without the tender signed, Peppers remains a free agent, however no one will touch him due to the compensation that would be owed to the Panthers - two first round picks. As a free agent, Carolina does not actually hold Peppers' rights and cannot trade him, but are handcuffed in free-agency because, until Peppers signs elsewhere, the team has to have the money available on the books in case Peppers signs the tender - so, even though he's not signed, he counts against the cap. How's that for a kick in the nuts - Peppers, in effect, can't get out of Carolina because he hasn't signed the tender, and Carolina can't improve until they're rid of Peppers, and he's not actually under contract.

For my money, I still say the Pats sign Jason Taylor to small money to play opposite Adalius Thomas. I expect the signing won't happen until sometime after the draft.

The Yankees brain trust cannot be happy with the spring that their big acquisition, CC Sabathia, is having. In fewer than eight innings pitched he has an ERA in excess of 7.00. The Yanks went out and spent big money on a pitcher pushing maximum density that racked up 90 innings in his last 12 starts (not including a brutal start in the playoffs against Philly where he failed to get out of the fourth inning). He had more complete games in the second half last season than he has had in any one whole season in his career. I can't help but think the big money for Sabathia over the long term, and possibly even the short-term is a bad idea.

The Celtics have been hit with some injury issues, but I think there's still enough time for them to get healthy going into the playoffs.

Ditto for the Red Sox going into the regular season.

Good luck to all with their brackets.

Pepper pot...

So, the big rumor right now is that the Pats are on the verge of acquiring Julius Peppers. A lot has to be done before that acquisition is a reality. Even if the Pats and Panthers reach an accord, it will be contingent upon negotiating a new contract with Peppers, who right now is in line to make more than Tom Brady in the coming season.

That's not going to happen - not on the Patriots.

If this does happen, I would say that the trade is probably about a month away. I would be at least a little surprised if the trade happens more than two weeks before the draft actually happens.

But let's take a look at the potential Patriots retooled defense, just for fun...

The Pats had two games in which the Offense was culpable in the demise of the defense due to its inability to stay on the field in those games, and had three other games where the defense either couldn't get off the field due to their lack of pass rush (Chargers, Jets), or the defense's inability to adjust to what the opposing offense was doing (Dolphins).

Some of the issue was pass rush, some was coverage.

The retooled starting line-up (if the Peppers trade works out) will look like this...

Adalius Thomas (OLB) Leigh Bodden (CB)

Richard Seymour (DE)
Jerrod Mayo (ILB) James Sanders (SS/FS)
Vince Wilfork (NT)
Tedy Bruschi (ILB) Brandon Meriweather (SS/FS)
Ty Warren (DE)

Julius Peppers (OLB) Shawn Springs (CB)

Nickel: Ellis Hobbs

With the injuries suffered by the Pats last season at a lot of these positions allowing for significant playing time for Gary Guyton, Pierre Woods, (and the early injury to Shawn Crable) as well as corners Jonathan Wilhite and Mike Richardson, as well as the (re)signings of Eric Alexander, Mike Wright and Tully Banta-Cain, these moves give the Patriots significant depth on defense that they lacked last year.

Additionally, this gives the team two legit cover corners, and a healthy Warren, Thomas, and the addition of Peppers, a solid pass rush. Should the Peppers deal not be consummated, I would expect that Thomas would move to the other side with a likely platoon of Crable and Banta-Cain coming off the backside, unless the Pats sign Jason Taylor. If the Peppers trade happens, I don't think the Pats sign Taylor.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see a move at safety before preseason.

Other quick thoughts -

Yup, it's official, Jay Cutler is a moron. I said this before, and I will reiterate it - first, it's disingenuous of someone to demand a trade, then get offended when his name comes up in trade talks. Second, I can only hope this idiot gets traded to Detroit.

This guy thinks he should be untouchable, but among starters he had the 6th best QB rating in the AFC alone, behind Matt Cassel (and 16th overall, behind such immortals Seneca Wallace, Matt Schaub, and Matt Ryan), 9th best completion percentage (14th in the NFL, behind the likes of Shaun Hill and David Garrard), the 2nd most interceptions (in both the AFC and NFC).

Yes, he logged a lot of yardage last season, but he didn't do it well, and somehow he was a pro-bowler. This is a guy that's a middle-of-the-pack starting quarterback, and he seems to think he's a top five sort of guy.

Best boxing match since the Thrilla in Manilla

And the biggest ass-whuppin' since the Celtics closed out the final game of last year's NBA finals against L.A. with a 39-point anihilation of the Lakers.

If you haven't seen it, this is must see TV.

This is it (keep clicking on the subsequent parts...best one sided sparring match you will ever watch) -

Buying the groceries

As I suspected, the Patriots aren't making a big splash, but they are going about signing a number of solid, proven veterans that should help in the short-run, and could potentially help in the long-run.

They have managed to, with four simple signings (and one re-signing), replace Lonnie Paxton who followed Josh McDaniels to Denver, upgrade from Lamont Jordan at running back, keep needed depth along the offensive line while retaining their largest fullback, and significantly upgraded their defensive backfield.

Discounting the Nathan Hodel signing since it's swapping one long-snapper for another, let's take a quick look at each signing and some of the other transactions the Patriots have had to bolster the team, or retain personnel -

Former Jacksonville Jaguars running back Fred Taylor is probably the biggest signing of the bunch. Taylor, while slightly older, represents an upgrade over the talented but erratic Lamont Jordan. Jordan was a solid part of the running back rotation last season, just as Taylor is likely to be this season. Taylor is more apt to be able to pick up the slack as a starter than Jordan, given the fact that Taylor is coming off a career low in attempts (based on playing in at least 10 games) which still would have qualified as Jordan's third highest number of attempts in a season.

While Taylor at 32 is on the downside of his career, he likely still has enough juice left to be a part time impact player.

Russ Hochstein was re-signed and in so doing the team retained one of their most versatile offensive linemen, and with Heath Evans moving on to the Saints, Hochstein moves to the top of the depth chart as the team's blocking back.

On March 5 the Pats traded for Eagles receiver Greg Lewis, a burner who is likely to be the third receiver. Lewis has shown flashes, and has apparent upside, but has yet to show the sort of consistency that Jabar Gaffney gave the third receiver position. If it works out, Lewis gives Tom Brady a speedster who will likely draw single coverage while defenses double up on Wes Welker underneath and Randy Moss on the other side. If Lewis fails to have a breakout season in this offense, it's unlikely that he will ever blossom.

I like the Shawn Springs signing, but was surprised that it was a three year contract. Given his history of injury, I expected a one-year incentive laden contract, maybe with an option. That said, Springs represents an upgrade over what the Patriots had in their backfield last season. Springs also is the sort of veteran presence that Bill Belichick likes to bring in as a player-coach to bring the youngsters along. As an aside, given Buffalo's recent move, Springs was instrumental in holding Terrell Owens to five receptions for 38 yards in the Redskins second meeting with the Cowboys last season.

The signing I like best, however, is the 27-year old Leigh Bodden. Bodden, cut by the Detroit Lions after only one season, previously played for Romeo Crennel's Browns. In Crennel's defense, Bodden excelled - in three seasons under the former Patriots coordinator, and in defenses that were in the bottom half of the rankings, the 6' 1" corner racked up 11 interceptions, 45 tackles, and 177 tackles.

I still say that the Pats sign Jason Taylor before training camp and he comes in to play as a 'tweener D-end/linebacker in order to bolster the pass rush because, like Springs, he's the sort of veteran player that Belichick loves to bring in at a discount.

Other quick thoughts -

Am I the only person out there that thinks Jay Cutler is an idiot - the man demands the Broncos trade him, then gets pissy when they actually try to do so. Am I the only one missing something here? I mean, sure, he threw for 4,526 yards last season, but he also racked up seven interceptions to six touchdowns in the final six games of the season when Denver went 2-4 after starting 6-4. That final stretch included a one touchdown, two interception performance against the Chargers in the final game of the season, the game that would have sealed up the Western Conference and a trip to the playoffs.

Any, and I mean, did anyone out there see the Dominican getting bounced from the World Baseball Classic by the Netherlands of all teams? Anyone? I mean, damn. That was a helluva performance.