Minor activities and scheduling thoughts

Friday night in Frederick, MD, a short drive from the Smith homestead, is going to be a fun one. Frederick is the home to the Single A Frederick Keys - part of the Carolina League, and opponent to the Salem Red Sox, who happen to be in town this weekend.

When I first moved to the area the Wilmington Blue Rocks were the Red Sox affiliate that played the Keys, and then the Blue Rocks changed their major league affiliate, leaving me sans Sox prospects to watch. This weekend I get to watch five of the Sox top 20 prospects - Ryan Kalish, Luis Exposito, Yamaico Navarro, Che-Hsuan Lin, and Kyle Weiland - as well as Jonathan Paplebon's brother Josh.

I'll be at the game at Harry Grove Stadium on Friday night with the family, but will probably leave long before the end of the game (hard to stay till the end with a 20-month old), but it's always a fun time. My seven-year old loves the kids' zone with the carousel, and my wife loves the fact that the stadium serves beer from both of the town's brew pubs.

It'll be my first time to the stadium this season. For those of you baseball fans who have never made it to a minor league game, I highly recommend it.

Pats Schedule...

As I mentioned yesterday, I believe that the strength of schedule that people talk about at this time of year is a faulty way to view the difficulties of the coming season. It has no bearing - before last season the Dolphins were a one win team, this season they go in having won 11, the previous season was no predictor of future success.

Based on last season's results, the Pats have the third hardest schedule in the NFL. That said - Miami is sneaking up on no one this season, and while it's possible they might repeat their 11 win performance that won them the AFC East last season, I don't think that they're going to surprise anyone with the Wildcat offense in 2009 and they'll slide. The Jets currently have no quarterback, and key players on the Bills are going to start the season suspended, putting Buffalo into an early hole. And that's just the AFC East. There are definitely issues with some of the other teams as well - are Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan going to have surprise seasons again? I don't think so.

I could go on, but I'm going to address another interesting quirk in the schedule. What happens when the Pats hit the bad weather months of November and December? Let's look at the schedule...

After the bye week at the beginning of November in week 8, the Pats play out the string as follows:

Sun 11/8/2009	1:00 PM	vs	Dolphins	WBZ / CBS
Sun 11/15/2009	8:20 PM	@	Colts	WHDH / NBC
Sun 11/22/2009	4:15 PM	vs	Jets	WBZ / CBS
Mon 11/30/2009	8:30 PM	@	Saints	WCVB / ESPN
Sun 12/6/2009	8:20 PM	@	Dolphins	WHDH / NBC
Sun 12/13/2009	1:00 PM	vs	Panthers
Sun 12/20/2009	1:00 PM	@	Bills	WBZ / CBS
Sun 12/27/2009	1:00 PM	vs	Jaguars	WBZ / CBS
Sun 1/3/2010	1:00 PM	@	Texans	WBZ / CBS

So - in New York, at home, in Houston, at Indy, at home, at home, in New Orleans, at home, at Buffalo.

With the exception of the game at Buffalo in December, the bad weather games the Pats really face are at home in December against the Panthers, and Jaguars, and maybe the November contest against the Jets. Otherwise the Pats are playing in warm climates, or domes. At first glance that might not seem to be important, but for anyone that remembers the way the Pats passing game slowed down at the tail end of the season during their 16-0 run, they might want to think about how Tom Brady and the receiving corps might thrive in some of these late-season contests.

Fewer late season games in cold and wind might mean for a more prolific late season offense, helping to keep the defense off the field.

Bargain shopping and other thoughts

After the signings of Fred Taylor and Chris Baker in the wake of the trade that sent Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel to Kansas City, the Patriots have approximately $16 million in cap space to play with. Realistically, that's not enough with which to make a big splash given the fact that has to account for free-agents and the draft. If you figure half of that goes to the rookie pool and tying up Vince Wilfork to an extension accounts for about half of that (I wouldn't be surprised if they decide that it's either Richard Seymour or Wilfork and they decide it's Wilfork that's the more important player), that leaves about $8 million for free agents. They'll probably try to keep about $2 million to $2.5 million in space heading into the season to cover unemployed veterans for emergency signings.

That leaves between $5 million to $6 million to bring in free agents, which means bargain hunting. Keep in mind that these are rough numbers ganked from http://www.patscap.com/ and I would say that we're looking at a plus or minus about 2 to 2.5 million.

So, who could the Pats get on the cheap - maybe on one year incentive laden deals?

Well, first you have to ask where are they looking to shore up - I'm guessing that we're looking at a receiver or two, a D-end/Linebacker sort, a veteran O-lineman and maybe a couple of defensive backs. I would rank the needs like this -

1. DB
2. Pass rusher
3. WR
4. OL

As such, here are some of the moves I could see the Pats making (not that they will, but none of these would surprise me) -

If Bill Belichick believes he can get them for the minimum plus incentives for games played, I wouldn't be surprised to see either Shawn Springs or Mike Peterson on contracts like that. Peterson, if he can stay healthy, would be a good platoon player to move in and out with Tedy Bruschi. Springs, when healthy, is a highly talented cover corner that can play the league's best receivers one-on-one. Another option to bolster the pass rush, also on an incentive laden contract, is Jason Taylor. I think it's unlikely, and I wouldn't be surprised if he fades into retirement, but I think he would be tempted by what he might see as his best opportunity to go out with a championship. Forget about Lawyer Milloy returning - it's not happening given the fact that the reasons leaked for his release are the same reasons that got him out of New England and Buffalo.

I would also look at maybe Darren Sharper or the likes of Daven Holly and Sean Jones who played under Romeo Crennel on the Browns to come in to bolster the defensive backfield.

With Jabar Gaffney gone to Denver, the Pats' third best receiver over the last couple of seasons has left the building. I would think that the braintrust is going to add here - maybe someone like Devery Henderson or Shaun McDonald. These are guys that have a lot of talent, can be deep threats, but aren't going to get a look if they're trying to get starter's scratch, because neither has shown they're anything more than a third receiver.

I'm not even going to venture a guess at the extra offensive linemen that they will try to bring in, but I'm certain they will given the fact they have every year since Belichick has been coach.

The other end of the rainbow...

At the other end of the spectrum is the Redskins who have fired off one of the dumbest contracts in the history of the NFL. Yup, I'm talking Albert Haynesworth.

Yes, the volatile Haynesworth has been one of the best nosetackles in the game, if not the best, over the last two seasons. In those two seasons he's rocked 91 tackles, 14.5 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. Of course that was done on consecutive one year contracts (45 tackles per season, 7.25 sacks, and 1.5 forced fumbles).

When Haynesworth was on a longterm contract his first five seasons he averaged 36 tackles per season, 1.9 sacks, and had a total of 3 forced fumbles. This is not a guy that plays hard when he knows he's set from a financial perspective.

He's also played in 16 games only once in his career and has averaged just under 13 games per season and has averaged 12.3 games per season since his sophomore season.

The Angry Fan presents the TAF All-Patriot Team, wide outs

I want to throw this out to my handful of readers. In light of Matt Cassel's sudden morph for the past two games into the best characteristics of Steve Grogan, Drew Bledsoe, and Tom Brady, I wanted to address my all time team. Below I've picked out my nominees for each position, and the total number that will, in the end, be named to the team.

Also, feel free to do write in candidates - however, keep in mind, you have to make your argument for why that player deserves consideration, and you need to get votes from your fellow readers.

One last note before I get into the nominees - typically one season wonders will not make the list, unless that season was particularly special. Active players are considered on the list, but it will skew away from them as the body of their work could still take a turn for the worse. Also, I am going with individuals, not tandems. You want to look at some of the top tandems, you need to look here.

And onto the nominees, who were all solely at my discretion...

Wide Receivers (5 will be named) -

Troy Brown 80 - Not the most prolific nor talented receiver to ever play for the Pats, Brown might have been the hardest worker. A draft pick in a round that doesn't even exist, Brown went on to become the all-time leader in receptions for New England not because he repeatedly racked up 90 catch season, rather because he weathered the grind and fought harder than anyone else to get there. His record is a testament to perseverance, particularly when it's taken into account that he left receptions on the field by playing defensive back when the team needed him on the defensive side of the ball (most summaries will be shorter than this). Until Wes Welker became the new Troy Brown, Brown also held team record for receptions in a single season.

Gino Cappelletti 20 - The monster from Minnesota, Cappelletti fails to receive the Canton consideration he deserves. The wide receiver/place kicker was a five time AFL All Star, and dominated the AFL. Consider the following from Wiki regarding his career -

"Cappelletti led the American Football League in scoring five times and led or tied the NFL in scoring 5 times as well. He had two of the top five scoring seasons in pro football history – 155 points in 1964 and 147 points in 1961 (14-game seasons). Nicknamed the "Duke", he is the all-time leading scorer in the American Football League. Cappelletti is among the AFL's all-time top ten receivers, in yards and in receptions. He is the Patriots' third all-time leading receiver with 292 catches for 4,589 yards."

That's just the short of it. I could go on, but we would be here all day.

Stanley Morgan 86 - A burner, Morgan averaged over 20 yards per catch for his career, including 24.1 per catch in 1978. Morgan was a four time pro-bowler who is only now beginning to garner some much deserved attention by HOF voters. The four time pro-bowler still leads the team with 10,352 receiving yards for his career.

Randy Vataha 18 - Like Brown, Vataha is not what anyone would call a high draft pick. According to the team's 1976 media guide -

...rookie year earned him a spot on UPI's AFC all-rookie team, a Gipper Award for receiving and the Johnny Unitas Award ... tied the club record with 51 catches in 1971, set new marks with 88-yard TD catch and 872 yards as he played in all 14 games ... thigh bruise forced him to miss two games during 1974 season, first misses since junior high school days ... led club in receiving in 1975...

Jim Colclough 81 - Cappelletti's battery mate, Colclough, like Cappelletti, doesn't get the love he deserves due to playing his entire career in the AFL. One of the original Patriots, this is his summary from the team's 1968 media guide -

...ranks behind only (Lance) Allworth and Dubenion in best all-time AFL average gain with passes caught (17.6) ... ranks ninth in top ten of all-time AFL pass receivers ... has caught 275 passes for 4865 yards in his eight years of AFL play ... was traded to Jets in 1965 for John Huarte but Pats traded later to get him back ... knows his way around ... had 16 catches for 284 yards in '66...

Deion Branch 83 - Realistically, Branch's regular season stats pale in comparison to the rest of the crew here. He never put up solid number one receiver numbers. He was seldom healthy. but he was a beast in the post season. Occasionally he was the fly in the ointment against teams here and there during the regular season. And those things are worth something.

Randy Moss 81 - It's hard to keep a guy off the list that set the single season record for touchdown receptions with 23 to go with a 1,493 yard season. Without Brady under center, he's still on pace for 1,100 yards.

Wes Welker 83 - The other 83. In two seasons (including the current) the durable Welker is the king of the catch and run. The king of the bubble screen, Welker has likely caught more balls behind the line of scrimmage than any other receiver in the league. In spite of that, he has higher average per catch than a 10 yards. Currently he has 192 receptions and over 2,000 yards receiving in 27 games for New England.

The Point

Jimmy McGinty: You know what separates the winners from the losers?
Shane Falco: The score.
Jimmy McGinty: No, getting back on the horse after getting kicked in the teeth.

A lot has been made this year about the motivation behind the Patriots destroying their opponents. The whole Spy-Gate thing in particular. While I think that played a part early in the season, I think the impetus for the way the team played and was coached started long before September, and the events in the Meadowlands.

Bill Belichick, as has been his history, did away with convention, and went for the jugular this season...everyone's jugular. He gave no quarter and exhorted his team to play 60-minutes every game, even late in the fourth quarter with the team up, sometimes by as many seven touchdowns, not because of anything that happened this year.

Rather, this all started with thirty minutes left on the clock in Indianapolis last January. Up 21-6 at half-time, the Patriots laid back a little on the throttle, and the Colts came back to beat the Pats by a final of 38-34, outscoring the Patriots in the second half 32-13.

With key drops by last year's leading receiver, Reche Caldwell, in the second half, Belichick and personnel guru Scott Pioli set about creating an offensive juggernaut by bringing in receivers Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, and running back Sammy Morris. What they got was a 16-0 club that averaged 36.8 points per game while giving up an average of 17.1.

The party line of the team since Belichick arrived has been that statistics don't matter, only championships. The Hoodie, however, has a history of going against conventional wisdom.

Back in January of 1991 he put together a defensive game plan to combat the Bills that is in the Hall of Fame. The defense was designed to give up yardage, but not points. With only two linemen on the field for almost the entire game, it was a dare and a statement - "if you can beat us with Thurman Thomas, then so be it. But I'm betting you can't."

The potent Buffalo receivers were rerouted time and again into the middle - into the linebackers, who spent the day beating them up. Andre Reed told NFL Films that he had never been hit as hard as he was in that game.

This season Belichick trashed conventional wisdom, and has set out to do what no one has done in the history of the game.

He put together a team with the following firsts -

First team to win 16 games in a season

First team to win 19 regular season games in a row

First quarterback to 50 touchdown passes, and the only quarterback that doesn't play the game in a dome or warm weather to even come close (Manning 49, Marino 48, Marino 44, Warner 41)

First team to have a wide-out catch at least 23 passes in a season

After years of beating teams like the Colts and Rams that tried to spread defenses out, Belichick ran the table doing just that. The question becomes, can they do it through the post-season?

If they do, then it will add to the firsts - Brady would become the first quarterback to lead the NFL in yardage and win a Super Bowl in the same season.

The point Belichick is making? There is no right way to get things done in the NFL other than making sure that the personnel fits the scheme a team is trying to run. If teams take care of that and have good coaching, the rest takes care of itself.

All of this because the team is getting back on the horse after getting kicked in the teeth by a Colt back in January.

Superman wears the number 80

A hearty welcome back to Troy Brown.

For over a decade Troy Brown has been everything for the Patriots - special teams demon, slot receiver, third-down threat, number one receiver, pro-bowl receiver, nickel corner, third string quarterback (and Kordell Stewart was nicknamed Slash?!). Today he was activated when Rosevelt Colvin was shut down for the season.

With Colvin shut down, the Patriots resigned Chad Brown and, as I previously speculated would happen, released rookie defensive lineman Kareem Brown (expect Brown to be signed to the practice squad, if possible).

Superman is back for what may be his last hurrah before going off into that sunset.

Coincidentally, Troy makes his return to a team that is already six deep at wide out with Randy Moss, Dante Stallworth, Wes Welker, Jabar Gaffney, Kelley Washington, and Chad Jackson. However, for those watching Sunday night's game, it might have been noticed that the defensive backfield was a little strapped with career special-teamer Eddie Jackson seeing significant time.

Don't be surprised if the Patriot's elder statesman goes out with six guns a blazing from the nickel or dime corner position, covering opponents' slot receivers rather than catching passes.

Welcome back Superman. Hope to see you on the field this Sunday.

Weekend musings...

Welcome to the Animal Shelter...

Peter King had it right - the Patriots won yesterday in the fourth quarter on 13 key plays, twelve of them came from the Animal Shelter - Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, and Randy Moss - the other was a great catch-and-I-won't-be-denied-run by scatback Kevin Faulk.

Welker, Stallworth and Moss all made big plays, with Stallworth and Moss catching deep balls to set up touchdowns from Welker and Faulk. Why the "Animal Shelter?"

Stallworth generated almost no interest in the free-agent market, Moss was had for a fourth round draft pick, and Welker, Miami's leading receiver last year and an undrafted free-agent, was tendered the minimum offer from the 'Phins. Like the dogs at an animal shelter, these were the unwanted, and now they're the best receiving corps in football and an integral part of why the Pats are heading into their bye week at 9-0.

Those top three receivers are likely to account for more than 3,600 yards combined at the end of the season. Moss already has 924, Welker is at 651, and Stallworth is at 453. That translates into a season long pace of 1643 for Moss, Welker projects at 1157 and Stallworth at 805 (a total of 3605). That doesn't include another estimated 1300, to 1400 yards in receiving from the rest of the team.

While it's likely that the aerial show will experience some drop-off as the team begins to fight the elements in Foxboro, the idea of a 5,000 yard passing season is not completely out of the realm of possibility. With struggling teams like the Jets, 'Phins, and Eagles still on the schedule, don't be surprised to see a whole bunch of dismantlings a la the first eight games of the season.

What should bother the Colts when they watch film this week, after handed a loss by the Animal Shelter, is that this is what is going to show up on the film - Brady had an off day, throwing at times away from the open man and into coverage. They will see a game in which at least one of their touchdowns was aided and abetted by a phantom call by the referees. They will see a game in which they had to carry their "more physical" defenders off the field twice in the final minutes. They will see a Peyton Manning, circa 2004 instead of circa 2006.

Anyone else hearing strains of that classic "Welcome Back" by John Sebastion.

See you boys in the Razor in January.

Double Standards...

Isn't it time to drop the modifier "fighting" from the now 1-8 Fighting Irish?

Right about now I would like to hear about Ty Willingham filing a lawsuit against the Irish for his dismissal. To wit - in Willingham's three seasons, the Washington alum was fired with an aggregate record of 21-15, with only one losing record (5-7 in 2003). Willingham was dismissed after a 6-5 regular season. Currently, Charlie Weiss is presiding over a 1-8 regular season, putting his current record at 20-12 with three more losses likely on the schedule.

If they fired Willingham after a winning season just for missing a bowl game, not giving him an opportunity to develop the talent he recruited (does the name Brady Quinn mean anything to anybody?), why should Weiss get the same benefit of the doubt as he guides the team to what is likely to be a one win season?

As much as I hate seeing anyone play the card, personally, I have to believe that race played a part in this with Willingham being the only African-American head coach in the history of Notre Dame.