Showing posts with label tim wakefield. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tim wakefield. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Starting picture

Red Sox starters, expected to be a strength of the team, have had a rough go of it through the first two months. Daisuke Matsuzaka has managed only three starts and a stratospheric ERA of 10.32. Of the team's other five starters (with at least six starts), only Tim Wakefield (3.99) and Justin Masterson (4.47) have ERA's below five. Currently would-be ace Josh Beckett is at 5.01, last year's best pitcher, Jon Lester is cruising at 5.91, and free-agent pick-up Brad Penny is floating a 5.96.

While Wake has been the team's ace, even winning two of his three bad outings, and Masterson has been excellent in all but two of his starts (a 2.35 ERA in the four starts not including the May 1 and 6 starts), the rest of the staff has struggled. In some of those cases, however, the struggles might be somewhat superficial.

Of the team's starting five, Lester has been the most erratic having given up three or fewer earned runs in four of his nine starts, but five or more in the other five starts. In three of his starts following a start in which he gave up five or more earned he has bounced back to give up 0, 3, and 1 earned respectively. Unfortunately, the question for his next start revolves around which Lester is going to show up.

Beckett and Penny, on the other hand, have begun to show signs of life.

Beckett hit rock bottom on April 30 when he failed to make it out of the 5th inning at Tampa, making it second start in back to back starts in which he failed to pitch more than five innings (the only time he's gone fewer than six innings in any start this season). His ERA topped out at 7.22 that day. Since his ERA has decreased in every subsequent start. In his four starts since, Beckett has averaged 6.2 innings per start and has an ERA of 2.67 while going 2-0, and is one blown save from being 3-0 in that stretch.

As for Penny - I addressed him last week, but will run the numbers based on his subsequent start anyway. Penny almost had an extended Spring Training going through his first four games of the season, getting yanked from his fourth start before he could complete three innings. Like Beckett, however, he's seen his ERA drop from 8.66 with every subsequent start since.

His most recent start in Minnesota, during which he was throwing up between innings, was the first since that 2.2 inning start in April in which he failed to pitch six complete innings, getting pulled after getting one out in the sixth. Even so, he's averaged just about 6.1 innings per start, with a 4.40 ERA and 3-1 record.

It's just a guess, but assuming Penny isn't traded, but 15-5 with an ERA around 4.00 isn't unrealistic for him. If Lester can find the groove he was in last season, and Matsuzaka can re-find his form, this can be a tough staff for any team to have to deal with.

If they continue to have issues, don't be surprised to see Clay Buchholz back in the bigs, or John Smolz when he's ready.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Tidbits

Congrats to Mackenzie Brown, the 12-year old little leaguer from Bayonne who recently tossed a perfect game. It was the first in the history of that little league. She mowed down the entire team she faced - all boys - and in so doing, she got to throw out the first pitch at Saturday's game between the Mets and Nats at CitiField.

The Sox have now won 11 in a row. I can't help but think it's because a 42 year-old knuckleballer put the team on his shoulders when they needed someone to do it, and were it not for that near no-no by Tim Wakefield 11 games ago, the team might still be struggling.

Another note regarding the pitching - Jonathan Papelbon is on pace for 40 saves this season. Former Dodgers closer Takashi Saito could have close to 20, playing Jesse Orosco to Papelbon's Roger McDowell. Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen were tied for second on the team last season with two a piece to Paps' 41. From 1985-88, the wacky McDowell averaged 20 saves per season for the Mets while Orosco, the older veteran, averaged 18 per season as a complimentary piece. While not quite the same, it will be the first time since Papelbon became the team's closer that another pitcher has reached double digits in saves - providing the pace continues. The last time another pitcher even had more than five saves as a member of the Sox was when Mike Timlin racked up nine saves in 2006.

It's been nice to see the Red Sox bats come to life over the last eleven games. Through the first eight, it was as though they were still in extended Spring Training. If the Sox miss the playoffs by a game or two, that 2-6 start will weigh heavily on the team.

One draft note - I have to say that I'm surprised. I really thought that if Clay Matthews, Jr. were available when the Pats were picking that he would be a member of the Patriots today. The flip side - while the team's last two drafts have only been okay, this is a team that has averaged 12 wins per season since 2001, and has missed the playoffs only once in that time - last year when they still won 11 games. So...what do I know?