Wednesday, November 19, 2008

City of Dust

Dust - it's tiny, seems practically insignificant, yet it's all over and can have a severe impact on even the largest of bodies.

Pretty apt description for the Red Sox latest winner of the MVP award. One of the smallest players in the majors, Dustin Pedroia is, in his second season, the most decorated member of the Boston baseball team over the first two years of his career since Fred Lynn won the Rookie of the Year, Gold Glove, and MVP awards in 1975.

Pedroia now has a ROY, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and MVP award to show for his work as one of the men in the middle for the Sox. It's as much a testament to the little man's gritty determination as it is Theo Epstein's and Terry Francona's dedication to standing by the little man's side when he struggled at the beginning of the 2007 season.

Their faith in Pedroia has paid off in spades.

Pedroia's win is one of the few times that the Baseball Writer's Association has gotten this right.

The award is for the Most Valuable Player, not the guy who is statistically the best - which is what I think happened over in the National League.

I always felt that the key word in the award was "Valuable."

Sure, it could mean a number of different things to different people, however, the bottom line, I've always believed, is how valuable was the player to a team's success. It's a difficult question, and seldom is a player on a team that misses out on the playoffs deserving. There are exceptions - When Steve Carlton rocked 27 wins with a sub-2.00 ERA for a Phillies team that won only 62 games back in 1972, he certainly should have beat out Johnny Bench for the award. Any lesser pitcher would have struggled to get to double digits in wins, considering the Phillies lack of run support, making Carlton, far and away, the most valuable player to any success his team had that season. Consider the following - if you had a pitcher that couldn't even half his total of wins - at say, 13 wins, and those other 14 games are losses, the Phils finish 1972 with 48 wins.

I digress.

As to the question - what would have happened to the Sox had they lost Pedroia for an extended period of time? He picked up the slack when others went down - when the team lost David Ortiz, and JD Drew. When Mike Lowell was playing through injury, and the team suffered injuries to the starting rotation. If they lose Pedroia, do they still get to the post-season? I have my doubts.

It was nice to see the voters get it right, the voters that are enamored of stat machines.

Don't believe that about the voters? Consider the following about Alex Rodriguez (this was from one of my previous posts, but I have since updated it for current numbers)...

“Once each of his previous teams, the Mariners and the Rangers, rid themselves of A-Rod, those teams averaged somewhere around eight more wins per season for the first three seasons after Rodriguez’s departure. The Yankees averaged 95.5 wins per season with A-Rod in their line-up (with decreasing numbers the last three - 97, 95, 89). The three seasons prior to his arrival? 99.67. Sure, a drop-off of four games per year isn’t huge, but it’s still a drop off and when combined with the following fact, it’s a serious indictment of what his impact on a team really is - for the three seasons he played for the Rangers, Texas won 73, 72, and 71 games respectively (the Yankees won 101 his first season with the team, a total down to 89 this season), but for the first three seasons after A-Rod left the confines of Arlington, the Rangers 89, 79, and 80 games respectively - an average improvement of eight games per year.”

So, A-Rod won the award three times on teams that had lower win totals with him than without. How valuable is that? The Sox, on the other hand, jumped from 85 wins in 2006 to 96 wins in 2007, and 95 this past season.

I know that it's not fair to lay the improvement or decay at the feet of one player, but in the case of A-Rod, the improvement/degradation has followed him through his career. It happens to one team, it's coincidence, it happens with three teams - well, that's a career trend.

In other Sox news -

I just want to bid a quick farewell to Coco Crisp who is now officially a member of the Kansas City Royals. While the trade affects depth in the outfield, it bolsters the bullpen, an issue in the post season, with the acquisition of Ramon Ramirez. Ramirez appeared in 71 games, going 3-2 with a 2.64 ERA for the 75 win Royals last season.

Happy trails Coco.

Monday, November 17, 2008

This rocks...

Eri Yoshida.

Remember that name.

She might not do anything, but the 16 year old knuckleballer was drafted to pitch for the Kobe 9 Cruise of a new Japanese independent baseball league.

It's historic in that she will be playing professional ball, lining up with the men.

The five-foot, 114 pound pitcher will be the first to take the mound on a (predominantly) men's team since Mamie "Peanut" Johnson pitched for the Indianapolis Clowns in 1955. Johnson played for the Clowns from 1953-55 amassing a 33-8 record, primarily in relief, while batting .273. She missed being a teammate of Hank Aaron's by a whole season. Aaron played for the Clowns in 1951, leaving the Negro League for a minor league contract in the Northern League in 1952.

I mention Yoshida here because of this - according to the AP report, she "says she wants to follow in the footsteps of the great Boston Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield."

Friday, November 14, 2008

Pat Patriot and Mr. Hyde

It was a hell of a game, and a good win for the Jets, but this is not the sort of game where Eric Mangini is going to go back and look at the game tape and get the warm fuzzies.

This is what Mangini will see that was good - Brett Favre was 9 of 12 on third down. Leon Washington was a the difference in the game as a monster on special teams. And he has a physical, punishing rookie tight end that refuses to go down on the first hit.

This is what he's going to see that he won't be happy about...

Favre was 9 of 12 because he was able to look off rookies Gary Guyton, Jonathan Wilhite, and other youngsters. Even with the success he had, a veteran like Favre should have been able to torch this young defense (yeah, you heard me - young. The only starters over 30 right now are Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, and Delta O'Neal). Yes, he had a solid game, but this was a defense ripe for the picking and the Jets just barely eked out a win. Over and above that, the Jets were aided and abetted by a horrible defensive holding call on their last drive to go up 31-24 (if the refs wanted to call illegal contact, I would have understood, but that wasn't anywhere close to holding).

The Jets defense only came up with two stops - both in the first half. Otherwise, they got off lightly due to Patriot mistakes throughout the game - a Gaffney drop on what would have been a first down reception, Ben Watson's fumble that I can only conclude was forced by Claude Rains, an inexplicable offensive miscue when Dan Koppen snapped the ball before Matt Cassel was ready. Even with these miscues abetting the New York defense, they still gave up 511 yards (468 to what is essentially a rookie quarterback), 31 points, and the Patriots effectively removed the Jets best defender, Kris Jenkins, from the game by going spread.

I'm not writing any of this to make myself feel better about the Pats loss. It sucked, and I'm not happy about it. There was plenty I was not thrilled about there - their inability to get off the field on third down, blown coverages on defense, their attempts at ritual football suicide. It was, essentially, a Jekyll and Hyde performance.

These are all going to bring the Belichick beat-down on the players in the film room.

There were, of course bright spots - Cassel's play, the fact they roared back in the second half with 24 points, the play of Jerrod Mayo, the fact that the team is beginning to show they can overcome errors. All of that is good. But it wasn't good enough last night.

In spite of all the mistakes on offense, 31 points should be enough to win a game. This loss lies on the shoulders of the special teams and defense. Too often the Pats D was in position to get off the field, and too often they failed to do so. I won't even get started on special teams.

All in all, this means a division title is more difficult, but not impossible, but to do so, they will have to have a better record than the Jets at the end of the season.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Bottom End

The Pats enter the contest with the Jets tied for the AFC East lead at 6-3.

This record is a testament to a lot of things - the coaching, the will of the players, and, possibly most of all, the team's scouting department that has managed to find NFL caliber players at the bottom end of the draft to populate the bottom end of New England's depth chart. But it goes farther than that, as the scouting department has succeeded in finding those guys when the draft is over.

There are 63 players (10 on injured reserve) on the roster, of those listed below, none was drafted higher than the sixth round (although a couple were from other teams, I felt it worth noting their original draft status), and most were brought on as rookie free agents (noted as RFA). Almost all have had at least some, if not significant playing time with the regular units as well as with special teams.

Eric Alexander (RFA) - Linebacker, has only been active on special teams for one game this season, but saw action in 12 games last season and got the start in a postseason tilt against the Colts in 2006.

Matt Cassel (7) - Steadily improving replacement part for Tom Brady, progressing at roughly the same rate Brady did when he replaced Drew Bledsoe in 2001. Is 5-3 as a starter, and 6-3 through 8.75 games this season for the Patriots.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RFA) - Signed off the practice squad when the team was down to Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans, Green-Ellis has been solid, scoring four touchdowns in four games to go with a 3.9 yards-per-rush average.

Matt Guttierez (RFA) - Third stringer in 2007, and cut at the end of camp this season, Guttierez was re-signed as the third QB again. Has not seen any playing time outside of the pre-season.

Gary Guyton (RFA) - Has worked his way into a regular rotation with Tedy Bruschi that helps keep the veteran fresh, Guyton has 20 tackles this season playing primarily on third downs. More impressively, he's worked his way into a rotation under a coach that favors veterans at this position.

Larry Izzo (RFA) - Signed as a free agent from the Dolphins, Izzo was an established special teams demon when the Pats signed him. He's here only as a footnote as a player who went undrafted. Even though a smart signing by the Patriots that took an impact player from a division rival, this one I have to credit to the Miami scouting department and Jimmy Johnson.

Stephen Neal (RFA) - Didn't play a down of football in college, has developed into a solid right guard. At times, particularly in the running game, Neal has been punishing.

Lonnie Paxton (RFA) - Buried on the depth chart at tight end, Paxton has carved out a niche for himself as the team's long snapper and an absolute demon on special teams, sometimes making tackles on the same play wherein he snapped the ball.

Mike Richardson (6) - The second year corner out of Notre Dame is raw, but has shown flashes of potential when he's had the chance to play, and could develop into something special - especially now with the depleted secondary, he has a chance to show the coaches what he can do.

Le Kevin Smith (6) - Back-up nose tackle, Smith only has three tackles on the season, but all have come close to the line of scrimmage. Smith has been a solid, if unspectacular back up.

Antwain Spann (RFA) - Spann has appeared in only three games this season, and one last, but has appeared in as many as eight (2006), primarily on special teams, but has seen a little bit of time with the regular defense. Not really an impact player, Spann really has been the proverbial bottom of the roster, yet he has done enough to stick through into his third season.

Raymond Ventrone (RFA) - A hard-nosed, does whatever asked sort of player who has been asked to play downs in the regular defense, offense and special teams. Ventrone has the potential to be a fan favorite - that blue collar guy who does anything asked and doesn't complain. If he develops into any kind of impact player doing that, the fans will love him.

Wes Welker (Tr - RFA) - A walk on in college, undrafted, and later cut by the Chargers, then signed by the Dolphins who traded the guy they thought was a third receiver to the Pats for second and seventh round draft picks. He went on to lead the league in receptions in 2007 and is currently second in the league with 65 catches. Through the two seasons he has also been one of the top Yard After the Catch men.

Pierre Woods (RFA) - Woods is now in his third season with the team. While primarily a special teamer, Woods has seen time in the regular defense spelling Bruschi and Mike Vrabel. With the injury to Adalius Thomas, Woods is expected to pick up the slack left in the wake of that injury.

Mike Wright (RFA) - A personal favorite of mine, Wright is a high motor sort of guy that never stops before the whistle. How he wasn't at the very least a low-round draft pick is beyond me.

Billy Yates (RFA) - Yates is another one of those who was originally signed elsewhere (Miami), and was cut. Yates has developed into a solid back-up tackle, getting starts when there have been injuries along the line. While he was part of the problem in pass protection during the season, he's a guy that can come in and spell the starter for a while without significant drop-off. His issue is when he has to play the whole game.

Tom Brady (6 - IR) - Arguably the best quarterback in football for the better part of the last five seasons, inexplicably was still around after almost 200 players were drafted ahead of him. Every team in the NFL had multiple shots at Brady before the Pats got him. He's only gone on to appear in four Super Bowls, winning three, garnering two SB MVP's, one NFL MVP, and set the single season record for touchdown passes.

A whopping 27 percent of their roster came in the sixth round or later (20.6 percent of the roster went undrafted). Now, I can't say this for certain, having not researched other teams, but I would be surprised to find that one-fifth of any other team was made up of players that went undrafted, or that close to a third of the team came from round six or later (it goes up by another four players if rookie Bo Rudd - injured - and the fifth rounders are included in the list)

Monday, November 10, 2008

Triage and thoughts around the league

Adalius Thomas has joined the ranks of Tom Brady, Lawrence Maroney, Rodney Harrison, Tank Williams, and Ryan O'Callahan. Soon he will be put on the IR with them. All are lost for the season all players that were either starters, or were expected to be significant contributors.

Thomas played more defensive snaps than any other linebacker on the team - followed by rookie Jerrod Mayo, and Mike Vrabel. Rookie free-agent Gary Guyton has been rotating with Tedy Bruschi, allowing the veteran to remain fresh.

Like last season, the Pats got whacked by injuries at linebacker. Those injuries forced Bruschi and
Junior Seau to shift from platooning to sharing the box on defense. They played well, but they showed signs of wear and age late in the season - maybe at no time more than in the Super Bowl.

So this poses a question - Do the Patriots find their solution from within, or do they go out and get help?

The track record so far this season is that they look from within - consider: When Brady was lost for the season, Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick could have brought in a veteran - either Tim Rattay (whom the Pats considered drafting instead of Brady), or Chris Simms - or they could have even traded for a QB. The Pats took a lot of flak in the press for not bringing someone in.

They're down to a rookie free-agent running back that was buried so deep on the depth chart at the beginning of the season that he was somewhere below the ocean floor. The team could have gone and signed Najeh Davenport, recently cut from the Steelers. So far, they haven't.

When Rodney Harrison went down and the rest of the secondary got nicked up, there were a number of solutions available - including John Lynch. They brought back Jason Webster, who was with the team through the pre-season, but he hasn't played a snap yet.

There area few outside solutions to the Pats current dilemma, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go to any of these, but I also wouldn't be surprised with a "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" attitude from Belichick. Roosevelt Colvin knows the system and is available, the same is the case with Junior Seau (assuming he's fully recovered from his off-season surgery). If Colvin can still play, he can fill the same roll as pass rusher that Thomas has been playing while keeping the current rotation largely intact. If Seau comes back, that allows the team to move Guyton to the outside, his natural position, while platooning Seau and Bruschi.

As for the defensive backfield, if the injuries continue to mount, I wouldn't be surprised to see Lynch brought back into the fold with Brandon Meriweather moving over to corner. Personally, and I don't think it will happen, but I would like to see Troy Brown brought back for the nickel package.

Elsewhere...


That sucking sound you hear coming from Oakland...well let's just say I now get why it's nicknamed the black hole. It's where careers go to die - whether as a player, coach, or executive, Al Davis is bound to suck the life out of you.

If Oakland fans are feeling...shall we say...put out, at least they're not Detroit which is not only looking at another likely round of layoffs after record losses by the auto industry, but also a football team that will almost certainly set a new record for futility with the first perfectly imperfect season. Looking at their remaining schedule, it wouldn't be surprising for the team to go winless.

Then of course there are fellow bottom feeders St. Louis, Seattle, San Francisco, Kansas City, Houston, and Cleveland. Fans of all these teams, particularly the Browns and Seahawks who both have been competitive in recent years, have to be wondering where it's all gone wrong for their hometown teams.

If the season ended today, the top eight positions in the draft (barring trades) would look like this -

1. Detroit
2. Cincinnati
3. KC
4. St. Louis
5. Oakland
6. Seattle
7. San Francisco
8. Houston

At the other end of the spectrum, you have upstarts and stalwarts turning in spectacular coaching performances -

Belichick has the Patriots positioned to possibly win the division again, in spite of injuries to the key players mentioned above. It may be one of the best seasons' worth of coaching in his career.

Mike Smith in Atlanta along with former Patriots employee Thomas Dimitroff has the Falcons four wins away from a likely playoff birth barely removed from the brutal chaos of last season's twin Michael Vick and coaching fiascoes. Considering there were those that knocked the Falcons for bringing in Smith, this has to be one of the top performances in the NFL this season.

Jim Zorn in Washington I was positive was a year away, at least, from being competitive. I figured the man who has never been a coordinator needed at least one season for his system to sink in. Boy was I wrong.

Jeff Fisher in Tennessee might actually match the Patriots' regular season accomplishment of last season. They have a tough road, with games against resurgent Jets and Colts teams, and what's sure to be a war of attrition against Pittsburgh late in the season. Fisher has done a hell of a job this season, but people are too quick to give him credit for doing it with their back-up, Kerry Collins, who's a better quarterback than Vince Young, and has piloted teams to the playoffs, and even as far as the Super Bowl before.

Any one of these four is worthy of coaching honors, and none would surprise me as the winner - barring an epic collapse by any of them.

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Overcoming

Throughout the season the Patriots have either been without for part, or have lost for all of the season their starting quarterback, guard, right tackle, running back, strong safety, second running back, third running back, nickel corner, special teams gunner (Kelley Washington missed a couple of games), their starting tight end, and have been down to three rookie corners, two rookie linebackers, two no-name O-line men, a quarterback who hasn't started a game since high school, and a running back who went undrafted. That's nine (including second year tight end Dave Thomas who missed much of last year with injuries) of 22 starters who have not had significant playing time in the NFL.

They're tied for first after nine games.

Certainly, with Tom Brady under center the team would very likely own a record closer to 8-1, or even be pushing 9-0 again, but, considering the injuries, 6-3 and a share of first place with six games to go isn't only respectable, it has them positioned for the a playoff run with seven games left. Three of those games are against division foes - the Jets next week, Miami, and a rematch with Buffalo, - and another two against bottom feeders Oakland and Seattle.

It's not unrealistic to believe that the Pats could actually take all three remaining games in the division (or that they would go at the very least 2-1, go 1-1 against Pittsburgh and Arizona, and take the two from the Seahawks and Raiders) and win 11 or 12 games and lock up the number two seed in the AFC. Nothing short of miraculous with, at times, almost half the starting line-up nothing more than glorified back-ups or players not projected to start, or even see significant time until next season at the earliest.

A lot of people will point to their strength of schedule as being one of the weakest in the NFL - 32nd in a 32 team league - but that's based on 2007 results. Their opponents, based on 2007 results had a combined winning percentage of .397. This included the then 1-15 Dolphins, the 4-12 Jets, and the 7-9 Bills. Currently, the teams that the Pats have already played have an aggregate winning percentage of .438, and the remaining games are against teams with an aggregate winning percentage of .484 (minus the games against Seattle and Oakland, the percentage of the other five teams is .591). The rest of the AFC East alone has a winning percentage of .593, a significant improvement over last year's .250 for the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins combined.

While on day one this looked like the easiest schedule in the league, it's nowhere near the bottom. People still talk about the Pats' easy schedule, but has anyone looked at who the Giants have played lately? The aggregate record of their opponents thus far has been .386, with only three games coming against teams with a winning record higher than .333 (I note this because a lot of people want to discount the Titans undefeated record based on the quality of their competition, and rank the Giants higher, but the Titans have played four of their games against teams with winning records, and another two of their opponents have at least four wins).

Other items to note about the Pats -

Matt Cassel has now gone two games during which the opponents have combined to sack him once. I attribute that to two things - one; the returns of Stephen Neal and Nick Kaczur solidifying the play of the offensive line, and two; the continued development of Cassel as an NFL quarterback.

Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, the hard-running human hyphen who went undrafted, averaged 4.01 yards per carry, running for 105 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries. It was his best day as a pro, bringing him to 243 yards on 63 carries, upping his per carry average from 3.7 to 3.9, and (ties him for the team lead in touchdowns among running backs with) four touchdowns in five games.

The defense, in spite of injuries, has begun to look a little more consistent, and gotten more pressure on the quarterback in the last three games. The pressure has resulted in lower scoring affairs and more turnovers than what we were seeing early in the season.

These are all goods sign as the team prepares for its playoff push.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Blame and team dynamics

It was a good win for the Colts on Sunday night. They did enough to win, and the Pats did just enough to lose.

There was plenty of blame to go around; Jabar Gaffney, Randy Moss, Dave Thomas, Bill Belichick.

Gaffney dropped a sure touchdown pass.

Moss ran a route half speed in the last offensive series when he had drawn one on one coverage, and then cut his route off early, as though he couldn't outrun the corner that was so far down on the Colts depth chart that the man was a player without a team earlier in the season.

Dave Thomas had possibly the biggest boneheaded play of all on a drive that might have ended up compensating for Belichick's earlier blunders, committing a personal foul after the play to turn a third and inches into a third and fifteen.

But some of the other things would never have played into it had Belichick not engaged in some brutally bad choices - the penalty challenge was poor because it really didn't take very long for me to establish with TiVo that not only there were only 11 players on the field, but the one that the Pats coaches mistook for the 12th guy running off the field was player 11. The coaches up in the box should have been able to determine that inside of ten to fifteen seconds.

Then with 11 minutes left Belichick second guessed himself on a fourth down sneak which worked, but the refs granted Bill the timeout and the play didn't count. Belichick eschewed four more chances at the end-zone for the tie. It somehow felt like the Ravens game last season with the Pats in the roll of the Ravens.

The difference in the game - the Colts didn't make the stupid choices - clock mismanagement, personal fouls, drops at key moments. That was all on the Patriots, and it was the difference in the game.

On the plus side, there are some bright spots to take from the game, some of which Peter King noted in his TMQB article where he talked to former Giants coach Jim Fassel -

JIM FASSEL ON PATS-COLTS. Fassel did the 18-15 Indy win on Westwood One radio the other night, and he loved the game. "Great, great game,'' he said. "You think without [Tom] Brady the rivalry would really suffer, but you can't see a much better game than that one. New England has four 12-play-plus drives. Indianapolis has Manning playing for their season. Either team could have won.

"People thought the Patriots were dead with Matt Cassel playing, but I remember when Brady came in that first year [2001], and he was scrambling and dinkin' and dunkin.' Same philosophy now. Same gameplan. And in this game, I saw stuff out of Cassel I didn't see when I did the Patriots against San Diego a couple of weeks ago. He drops back, and on his fifth step, bang, he hits a receiver right between the numbers with authority. New England will be a tough team to beat in the playoffs.''

And onto team dynamics...

Humans are instinctively pack animals. I have believed this for a long time. We have this need to belong to a group, to something larger than ourselves. I've always felt this was at the root of why we root for sports teams, and we even identify with them using pronouns such as "we," and "my." There is almost always an "us against them" mentality for the fan bases, and it definitely exists within the teams themselves.

It's an instinct that both brings people together and one that pits them against each other.

I bring this up because there's something about fan and team dynamics that's applicable to politics. Historically, political races are run less on the actual issues than they have been run with the philosophy of tearing down the opponent. The us against them mentality is pervasive -

Republicans are fascist pinheads and religious nut jobs.

Democrats are commie pinko socialists bent on the destruction of the American Way.

Republicans are book-banning Nazis.

Democrats can't keep the nation safe.

For my money, it's all boneheaded, but as boneheaded as it was, we saw something new work this election. McCain used the Karl Rove playbook and got badly burned. Hillary Clinton did everything in the primaries that she could to tear down Barack Obama, and it ended up burning her.

Obama, while not total innocent of the "look what they're doing/ they have done" mentality in his advertising campaigns, his general message was that we needed to come together as a nation. He actually avoided some of the issues that could have reflected negatively on McCain which included -

For all of McCain's bluster about Ayers, McCain accepted donations and public endorsements from Leonore Annenberg and Arnie Weber - two individuals who also have ties to Ayers. Both individuals donated the maximum allowable amount to McCain's campaign, and both were involved in the approval of the grant Ayers' foundation received from the Annenberg Foundation. Does this make McCain a terrorist? Certainly not.

Palin, while mayor in Wasilla, asked the librarian how she would go about banning books from the shelves of the public library. She tried to fire the librarian when the same librarian gave Palin the answer that she couldn't.

Little was made of McCain's links to the Iran-Contra affair by the campaign.

Nothing was made about McCain's comments that we supported freedom fighters in Afghanistan back in the 1980's. Considering they were called the Taliban then, were trained by the Republican regime then in place, and had a member of that "freedom fighter" group by the name of Osama bin Laden - it was a comment that Obama could have jumped all over.

This is just the short list.

And please, don't mistake - I'm registered as an independent, have voted for Republicans, Democrats, Green Party, and any number of other candidates. My issue isn't with Republicans, per se. I have issues with party politics and the politics of partisanship and I cast my vote based on what I feel is the competence of the candidate.

What I think is interesting to note here is that while McCain tried scare tactics in regards to executive experience (he has virtually none as well), past associates (he has some pretty shady associates as well - I didn't even mention the Keating Five), incorrectly linking his opponent to a political philosophy that Obama doesn't actually espouse, Obama stayed on message - stressing in stump speeches the need to come together as a nation. I'm not naive enough to believe that this heralds a new day in campaign strategy. I just think the variables just came together for a guy who organized an impressive campaign.

And that's really the bottom line in sports and in politics - the people who win are the ones who run the best campaigns - and from early on McCain stumbled, Obama didn't - and like with the Pats-Colts game, the guy who made the fewest mistakes won.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Depth charges

There have been a lot of articles this week about how the Pats-Colts rivalry has lost some of its luster this year. I can't say I disagree with them. These two teams have combined to pretty much dominate their respective divisions since 2001. Last season the game between the two teams was a match-up between two unbeatens later in the season than it had ever happened before - and undefeated season was on the line at the halfway point for both teams.

Division rivals previous to the last realignment, the now conference rivalry never came close to approaching the fever-pitch that has grown over the last five seasons. Since 2001, the two teams have combined for 11 division titles, 12 playoff appearances, five Super Bowl appearances (four from the Patriots), and four Lombardi Trophies. The only other playoff contender in the AFC with more than two division titles is Pittsburgh with three. Coincidentally, they're the only other AFC team to have a Super Bowl appearance and to win the big game.

That was then.

Now, the luster is off as the Colts after seven games already trail the first place Titans by four games. They currently stand at 3-4, but could easily have been 1-6. They have alternately been horrible and great - often in the same game. The same can be said for the Pats - alternately horrible and great, often in the same game. But New England is 5-2 and tied for first in the division. The Colts are tied for last (granted, not a whole lot separates first from last in the AFC East this season, but it's worth noting that there are only four teams in the NFL with a better record).

I've heard a lot of talk about the age of the Patriots defense, but age has been a factor for the Colts as well - Marvin Harrison has been unable to get separation, the knee has made Peyton Manning play old and timid, age and injuries have begun to catch up to the Colts offensive line. To add insult to injury for the Colts, they are without the two corners that were projected as their starters when the season began.

For all their problems, however, an argument can be made that the Pats have had it just as bad, if not worse. The Pats started the season with the entire right side of their O-line on IR and only recently got Stephen Neal back. They are without their starting (pro-bowl) quarterback, running back, and (pro-bowl) safety. They subsequently lose their second and third string running backs, and end up with three rookies playing defensive back in dime situations in their last game.

In spite of all that, the Patriots have strung together a couple of wins to be tied with the Steelers and Bills for the second best record in the AFC. It's a testament to the coaching and the depth of a team that has been decimated by injuries that would have destroyed other teams.

Yes, there's a lot of football to be played, but if the Pats win the East again this season, then Belichick deserves serious consideration for his second coach of the year award, and Pioli exec of the year, for giving him the depth to weather major injuries (reportedly Norv Turner still blames the loss of Brad Johnson for the loss of his job as the head coach of the Redskins). I'm not saying I think he should get it, but he will deserve consideration. Probably right behind Jim Zorn and up there with Jeff Fischer.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Rooney

Named for Dan Rooney, owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Rooney Rule came into being in 2003. The Rooney Rule came about in an effort to level the playing field for minority candidates for head coaching positions. In essence, the rule mandates that any team that has an opening for a head coaching position must interview at least one minority candidate.

While I'm not really thrilled by the rule in general, it doesn't really bother me either. It has definitely generated results. According to Wiki, "At the start of the 2006 season, the overall percentage of African American coaches had jumped to 22%, up from 6% prior to the Rooney Rule."

However, there's a fine line between effective and stupid. And this is stupid.

To sum up, the Rams submitted a contract extension for Jim Haslett to the league. The extension was contingent on Haslett reaching a certain number of wins and he would remain the team's head coach for "X" number of years.

The league rejected the contract, saying that the team was trying to circumvent the Rooney Rule.

Huh?

He's already the team's head coach. There is no opening, unless he fails to perform - which is true for any coach.

If they want to argue that he wouldn't be coach at the end of the season, then what I want to know is how this is any different than what the Cowboys or the Seahawks did in writing into the contracts of assistant coaches that they would succeed their current head coaches. I mean, it's not like they're requiring either of those teams to comply to the Rooney Rule in order to fill the spot once Wade Phillips and Mike Holmgren are done.

So, why is what the Rams are doing any different?

This is just one of those things from the NFL executive offices that just doesn't smell right.

Consider - if Haslett has a decent season with the Rams, and everyone knows that he's their man, what coach, in his right mind, is going to debase himself by interviewing for an opening he knows doesn't even exist?

This is just idiotic.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Midweek Ephemera

Congratulations to the Phillies.

The World Series was kind of a can't lose prospect for me this year. I was born in Philadelphia - the family moved to Boston when I was three - but most of my extended family remains in and around the City of Brotherly Love. I also taught there for five years before moving to Maryland. So, for the friends and family still there - enjoy the win.

As for the Rays - well, it was a good run. It would have been nice, in as much as it would have just been a wonderful metaphorical screw you to the Steinbrenner clan and their free-spending ways if the team with the second lowest payroll in all of baseball had walked away with the championship. And it just would have been made sweeter that the team that plays on Georgie's front porch did it.

Over on the hard-court it was nice to see the Celtics come up with a win on the same day they raised their seventeenth banner to the rafters in the Gahden. I think it was important for them to come out and get the win against fellow Eastern power Cleveland, but mostly, it was nice to see the green-and-white come out rise to the occasion on what was a very emotional night for some of the team. I would right about it more, but I think that Dave over at The Coffin Corner already has it covered.

Don Banks over at SI almost always has a tidbit or two that I hadn't yet put together. In his mid-season report, he noted something very interesting about the Brett Favre acquisition. For all the hoopla surrounding his acquisition, and the optimism about their improvement (at this point last season they were 1-6 as opposed to 4-3), they are, in essence, no better than they were this time last year - third place, trailing the Bills and the Patriots, and one game ahead of the bottom dwelling Dolphins. Sure, they're a lot closer to first than last season, but the Favre gambit has yet to translate into any sort of change in the standings.

With a Brady-less Patriots team, this really has got to be eating at Jets fans.

What's happened to the NFC South? Last season they sent three teams to the post-season, this season only the Titans are on pace to even have a winning season.

Speaking of paces, who do you like most for a winless season - the 0-8 Bengals, or the 0-7 Lions? Personally, I think that it's completely possible that both teams will succeed where so many bad teams have failed in delivering the first perfect season in the annals of sucking. But, hey, I'm just an optimist hoping to view perfection in back-to-back seasons.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Picking up the slack

Cassel is still a work in progress, however, signs are encouraging..

I'm not going to post the Brady-Cassel comparison this week - mostly because the Boston Globe has already done it. But it is interesting to note that other media outlets are finally getting that comparing Cassel to Brady '07 isn't the appropriate comp to make. They're finally figuring out that the appropriate comp is for the late-round pick, career back-up getting the start is to compare him to when Brady was the late-round pick, career back-up.

Its about freakin' time.

While I'm not going to repost the numbers here, having provided the link above, I am going to say that it's interesting to note that the numbers through seven games are remarkably similar, and with the exception of in the area of sacks, touchdowns, and interceptions, Cassel leads Brady version .01 in almost every other category - and neither leads the other by any sort of significant number in any category.

It's creepy.

Other thoughts and observations...

The Giants front office is gutless.

Plaxico Burress won't start the game against the Steelers as punishment for actions detrimental to the team - harassing officials last week, not showing up for treatments, and other petulant actions are at issue. Sure, he plays and collects all his salary. Wow. What a punishment.

Would the Giants have just benched Burress for the first couple of plays of the game had the team been playing the Lions? Or would they have suspended him again? I'm guessing the latter.

But against the mighty Steelers? No. It's all hands on deck for that, discipline be damned.

I notice they had no problem suspending him for a game against the lowly Seahawks.

Other boneheads...

Former Jets receiver Don Maynard said some dumb things this past weekend.

"You have 106 coaches in the NFC that's never played pro ball, you got 126 in the AFC that's never played pro ball," Maynard said. "You got 64 coaches that never played college football, so now you know why the knowledge of pro football has gone downhill. They don't even do what we did in offenses and defenses."
Never mind the fact that three of the last five Super Bowl winning coaches never signed a contract to play in the NFL (Bill Belichick, Jon Gruden, Tom Coughlin); never mind the fact that the man for whom the championship trophy is named, Vince Lombardi, never played a down of professional football; or that Maynard's own NFL coach with whom he won a ring - Weeb Ewbank, never played professional football (that's eight rings from five coaches who obviously have no idea what they're doing by Maynard's reckoning - more if you include Green Bay's pre-Super Bowl Championships). Never mind all of that.

Let's just talk about one of the biggest differences in the game - the playbook. When I was in high school in the mid 1980's, we ran a pro-style offense...from the late 1960's and 1970's, with a dash of the 80's thrown in. The closer we got to current day, even then, the more complicated the plays became. This guy probably couldn't decipher today's playbook- so, yeah, he's right, they're not playing the offenses and defensed they did then - they're playing much more complicated schemes.

On second thought, I think I am going to address the boneheaded thought that someone who never played pro football is less qualified. There have been 42 Super Bowls, of those 42 championships 26 rings/trophies went home with 15 (head) coaches that never played pro football. There are only 26 coaches that even have earned the right to wear Super Bowl rings, and 15, essentially 58 percent, haven't played a down in the NFL. They account for 62 percent of the wins in the big game.

More impressively, eight of those coaches that Maynard thinks lack the requisite background account for 19 rings. Thirty-five percent of the coaches on the list account for 45 percent of those wins. Some of the names of the unqualified (Maynard's complaint, not mine):

Vince Lombardi
Weeb Ewbank
Bill Walsh
Joe Gibbs
Bill Parcells
George Seifert
Jimmy Johnson
Mike Shanahan
Bill Belichick

Lombard, Ewbank, Walsh, and Gibbs are all in the Hall of Fame for their coaching acumen. All the others are, at worst, in the discussion.

So what have we learned?

That Don Maynard is a total ass-clown with the football IQ of a brain-dead platypus.

Sigh.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

The defense is still a bit offensive

The Patriots have clawed their way back into a share of first place with their win over the Rams combined with the Bills loss to the 'Phins.

Once again, Matt Cassel was solid in his role as signal caller, and could have been even better if not for drops from Randy Moss (two touchdowns missed, and a deflection of his hand ended as an interception), and normally sure-handed Wes Welker (dropped a sure first-down, and fell in his route leading to interception two). Cassel led the offense to 23 points on 63 percent passing in spite of an erratic and often ineffective running game (although Kevin Faulk did average 4.1 yards a carry and was the Cassel's best weapon, accounting for a combined 107 yards and a highlight reel touchdown reception).

While I believe the offense could have been better - the team needs to do a better job of helping Cassel out - I don't have too many complaints about the offensive performance other than those noted above.

The defense, however, continues to bother me.

Overall, they did what they needed to do, coming up with the big third down stops pretty regularly. What wasn't good was the regularity with which the Rams hit big plays. Three St. Lois receivers had catches of at least 19 yards, two of them averaged more than 20 yards per catch and one, with six receptions averaged more than 27 yards.

These are not reassuring numbers.

They are a step backwards from last week when the Pats gave up virtually nothing deep.

Will they adjust sans Rodney Harrison? I hope so - but this really wasn't the sort of adjustment I was hoping to see, and I don't care what the record says, next week's Sunday night tilt against the Colts looms large. Even a wounded Peyton Manning is dangerous, and I would like to see that the secondary has made the necessary adjustments to win in Indy next week.

And on a separate note, for those of you who missed it, check out my last post on commercial viability. It's a gas.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Commercial viability

I love advertisements.

No, I don't just sit and watch ads - if I have something TiVo-ed, I will fast-forward through commercials. But I like breaking down the approach - what are the ad execs doing; is it entertaining; who are they targeting?

These are just some of the things I like to think about when I actually do watch the ads.

There are particular campaigns that I have enjoyed over the years. As little as I've like the product, the "Taste great, less filling" ads were fun. I have to admit to a certain visceral pleasure in watching Justin Timberlake getting whacked in the 'nads for a soda commercial. I thought the Visa commercials during the Olympics, the ones talking about the Olympic spirit - the one about the sprinter who finished the race leaning on his father, in particular - were excellent.

But some of my favorite sports related ads were from a campaign that's about five years old - Terry Tate, office linebacker.

The man is back...





Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Age?

I was concerned before the Monday night tilt against the Broncos - and rightfully so. The Patriots defense has struggled this season, and at times Denver has moved the ball at will against opponents. So you will pardon me if after watching Delta O'Neal get burned against the Chargers more often than the Mekong Delta during a napalm attack I lacked some confidence in the Pats ability to fend off a high-powered offense.

While I still have concerns about the offense (they looked great, but it was against one of the league's worst defenses), I have to give the defense props.

Yes, I'm a little worried moving forward about the lack of a healthy Rodney Harrison, but let's take a look at who made the plays on the "aging" Patriots defense.

The Patriots had two interceptions - one each from their pair of young safeties, Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders. Sanders was drafted in 2005 and Meriweather in 2007.

Three men on defense forced fumbles - undrafted defensive lineman Mike Wright (26 years old), Ty Warren (27) and the oldest - veteran corner Lewis Sanders (30).

The men who recovered those fumbles - rookie linebackers Jerrod Mayo, Gary Guyton, and back-up defensive lineman Le Kevin Smith - are all no older than 26.

Including the combined two sacks from Adalius Thomas and Richard Seymour (not including the shot at the beginning of the game from Sey and Tedy Bruschi that seemed to throw Jay Cutler off his game), the average age of the game-changing players on the Pats D in the Monday night tilt - 26.1 years.

Not exactly the NFL equivalent of AARP membership, is it?

In other NFL news...


So, it's been reported that Brett Favre contacted the Lions before their game against Green Bay and spent an hour on the phone giving the Detroit coaches details regarding the nuances of the Packer offense. While technically not against NFL rules, it is incredibly slimy.

It's one thing for a team to bring in someone cut from an opponent to pick their brain. It's another thing for a player to go out of his way to contact the former team's upcoming opponent.

Favre has, of course, denied doing so. Lions coaches, on the other hand, have refrained from comment.

What really got me was the following passage from the article -

Packers wide receiver Ruvell Martin shared Woodson’s concern.

“If it’s true, then you’ve got to question motives,” Martin said. “I don’t know what to say.”

But Martin downplayed the actual damage leaked inside information could do to a team.

“In my opinion, there’s not too much you can gain,” Martin said. “You can give them our hand signals, (but) those are on tape already. If we find out you’ve got our hand signals, we try to find a way (around it).”

Okay -does anyone else out there see what I'm seeing? Anyone? Any of the outraged about the Pats Spygate scandal?

Remember, during that total lack of digging done by the pundits and sports reporters in which few beyond Michael Silver noted that taping is commonplace through the NFL? That time period during which the Jets it turned out had been caught, but no one whined about that? That time period during which Jimmy Johnson admitted to doing it while coaching the Dolphins and the Cowboys? When people ignored the fact that Mike Shanahan was caught doing the same in the 1990's?

So now, based on that comment, you have to believe that not only the Pats, Jets, Phins, Broncos, and Cowboys have engaged in this, but evidently it's a common enough practice in the NFC North that a Packer wide-out publicly asked what an opponent really could have garnered by talking to a former teammate because they had all the signals on tape.

Yeah, right, this wasn't a common practice.

Prats.

Staying on Favre for just a moment longer -


Jets fans should consider the following very telling statistic an indictment of Eric Mangini's ability to pick a talented offensive coordinator who can use the talent he's given.

Brett the Jet has averaged 9.9 yards per completion this season. Chad Pennington is currently averaging 11.8 yards per completion. Last year Pennington averaged 9.86 per completion in Brian Shottenheimer's offense.

Coincidence? Maybe, but unlikely.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Elegy and other things...

Well, it was a good run. They teased me into believing again. They came up just short.

So it goes.

Now, after a good season, the Sox turn their attention to off-season concerns.

Congratulations to Tampa, you earned it. Good luck in the next round.

Over on the Grid-iron...

Does anyone else think that somewhere Drew Bledsoe was watching the Dallas game yesterday with the following thought running through his head - "frickin' pansy. Yo, dough-boy, it's a frickin' pinky - I led the Patriots to two come from behind victories with a god-damned screw sticking out of my index finger. Jesus. They benched me for that wuss?"

The cracks are beginning to appear in Dallas - TO whining, Romo wussing, Pacman fighting, Jerry Jones trading the farm for a horse.

They now stand at 4-3 with only to pushovers, San Francisco and Seattle, left on their schedule. They are behind both New York and Washington in their division, and could, by the time they reach their bye easily be 4-5 and would likely need to go 6-1 over the remaining games just to get into the playoffs. With games against the Redskins, Steelers, Giants, Ravens, and Eagles, I think that's highly unlikely.

Speaking of the Giants, I admit, it looks like I was wrong about them, as I was about the Eagles. I thought the Eagles would be better and the Giants worse. The Giants have responded to the challenge of defending their title this year.

Right now Buffalo is the best team in the AFC East.

How weird is this after the first eight years of the decade - the Chargers, Colts, Jaguars and the Patriots who have combined for 17 of a total 32 possible playoff appearances over the last eight seasons (12 of those between the Patriots and Colts alone who are currently second and third in their divisions and a combined 6-5). The only current division leader/wild card contestant in the AFC that has regularly been at the top of their game along with the aforementioned teams is Pittsburgh at 5-1.

Welcome to Bizzaro-world, NFL style.

With any luck, the Pats go to 4-2 tonight, but I have to honestly say, I don't have any confidence that the Pats defense is going to be able to shut down Denver's high powered attack. This is a New England team that's still searching for its identity since the loss of its offensive leader.

It would be nice if tonight was the night the defense found their stride.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Do you believe?

I have to admit, I reached a point where I thought this team would come up short.

There have been several things this season that I missed.

I thought the Rays would eventually spit the bit. There's nothing wrong with it - it's not unusual for a young team to crack in August or September as the pressures of being in a pennant race for the first time get the better of players that have never been there. It happens.

I wasn't the only one who thought the Rays would wilt in the heat of the race.

To Joe Maddon's credit, every time the team began to show cracks, he said or did the right thing to keep them on track. Every time he settled them down, every time he kept them winning.

This post-season we reached the point where I was positive that the Red Sox were going to be bounced. They weren't hitting - well, not timely hitting. The pitching just wasn't there. Four three and two-thirds of a game they either couldn't hold a lead, or couldn't score a run when they needed to.

The Rays - well they just seemed to be the unstoppable machine.

Suddenly, the moment seems to be getting too big for the young team. They're standing on the precipice of history, and their defense and vaunted bullpen have begun to crumble under the extreme pressure. Errant throws, their relievers fooling no one. It all added up.

The Sox got what they needed out of Beckett. James Shields turned in a solid effort, but it just wasn't quite enough. The Sox got what they needed out of David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Varitek, all of whom accounted for the team's RBI's.

It all added up.

It added up to an evened up series with a winner-take-all game to be played on Sunday night after the Sox were seven outs away from elimination, down seven runs, down three games to one. Sunday they march into the Trop evened up at three after the second biggest post-season comeback in baseball history, and then after taking it to the Rays in their dome - after taking it to the team with the best home record in baseball this year - well, just what might they be thinking in the Tampa locker room?

The champagne was chilled and ready to be popped at the end of game five.

Now the Rays have a front row seat to what the Yankees did in 2004 and the Indians in 2007.

Do you believe?

Friday, October 17, 2008

Damn

"Standing in the middle of nowhere
Wondering how to begin
Lost between tomorrow and yesterday
Between now and then
And now we're back where we started
Here we go round again
Day after day I get up and I say
I better do it again"

-Ray Davies

I said it earlier, and it's worth repeating - I do think that this is the Rays year. The Red Sox starting pitching has looked weak through this series. They just haven't risen to the occasion.

But last night - well, damn.

Like most, by the time we hit the seventh inning with the 7-0 Rays lead, I thought the Rays were going to close it out. Then it happened.

The rookie. The potential MVP. A breakfast cereal, Papi, JD and the Youk.

The offense suddenly came alive, as did Fenway which was more morgue than stadium for the better part of three games.

Contributions came from those who would have been cast-offs if the fans had their way- Drew and Crisp.

They've been here before, the Sox. Lost between tomorrow and yesterday.

And we should know by now to never say die (a long ways from 2003, isn't it?), but it's still a tough road ahead of them. I'm not going to rule them out of this post-season, but I'm also not going to get my hopes too high. They have a monumental task ahead of them in a hostile stadium - to do it again, and again.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Getting ahead of myself

So...

A couple of quick items - What happened in San Diego was just ugly, and the defense has me concerned. More than Castle. Right now Castle isn't significantly different from the 2001 Tom Brady (through six Brady-games they were 3-4 overall, 3-3 under Brady). Unfortunately, I'm not convinced that this defense is as good as the 2001 D. After six games the Pats were 3-3 in 2001.

Things began happening in 2001 that I don't see happening now. The offensive line began to gel back then. It doesn't look like it's even beginning to now, and it suffered key injuries that will slow it down even more. The defense, which sent a message in its game against the Colts that season (what Pats fan can forget the Bryan Cox hit), looks more like the pavement defense of 2002 (constantly getting steamrolled).

For this team to make noise, they need to get better. Particularly on defense. It's how they won in 2001, it's how they need to win now. The division is wide open and the Bills right now are best positioned to get to the second season.

Let's hope they rise to the occasion.

Over on the diamond....

The Red Sox are in a big hole.

No excuses.

The Rays have risen to every challenge the Sox have thrown at them. Every time the Sox crept within striking distance of the division lead, the Rays fended them off. The Sox put them in an early hole with their win in Tampa.

The Sox spit the bit, and I do think this is on Terry Francona, in game two with a two run lead when Josh Beckett had shown inning after inning that he couldn't protect a lead. I'm not calling for Francona's head. He's earned the pass on something like this - more often than not since he's been with the Sox, its worked out for him.

The bottom line is that the Rays are on the verge of their first World Series appearance in team history.

I'm not giving up hope - the Sox had their backs to the wall before (three game to none lead against the Yankees in 2004, down three games to one against the Indians last year...sound familiar) and managed to dig themselves out. Twice, okay. But three times, I have a hard time believing they can dig themselves out of this hole. I won't say it's one of their own making either, because that would diminish what Tampa has accomplished.

It would also diminish what Boston has accomplished.

And neither team deserves that.

Hey, Tampa, if you win, I'll be rooting for you, if for no other reason than the knife in the Steinbrenners' backs that it would be for the second lowest payroll to walk away with the title.

Sometimes you just have to see the beauty in all things.

As for coach of the year, it's hard not to consider Joe Maddon the hands-down winner. He took a team that went from worst and was a perennial joke in the American League East to the verge of the World Series. Even if the Sox somehow manage to pull it off and eliminate the Rays from the playoffs, Maddon deserves the award.

People will argue this, but Francona deserves consideration. Hank Steinbrenner whined about the injuries to the Yankees (somehow $210+ million doesn't buy enough depth to overcome injuries, wow, I guess it just doesn't go as far as it used to), but Francona kept the Sox in the race in spite of no effective number five starter, injuries to Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Beckett, not to mention losing JD Drew and David Ortiz for close to a third of the year due to injury, losing Mike Lowell for periods of time to an injury that he continued to try and play through, and dealing with a petulant Manny Ramirez.

He doesn't deserve to beat Maddon, but the only person that deserves additional consideration in the American League is Ron Gardenhire in Minnesota. The fact that the Twins were even in the mix at the end of the season is nothing short of a miracle given the talent that team cut loose in the off-season.

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Stupid stuff to pass the time until the playoffs

Beginning of the end...

It would appear that Pacman Jones is beginning his final hurrah.

Sure, he might be able to dodge this bullet because no charges have been filed, but I won't be surprised if Roger Goodell throws the book at him given the fact that Goodell pretty much told him no more transgressions of any sort. Assaulting one of his security contingent employed by the Cowboys (an in turn the NFL) is not keeping out of trouble. To coin a Red-ism, "dumbass."

Best of the best...

Baseball and football are interesting beasts.

On paper, in all sports, the best team doesn't always win. It's why things like the 2001 Patriots happen. As the saying goes, "any given Sunday..." While it's unlikely, it's not unrealistic for a winless team to beat the best (or one of the best) team(s) in football. Baseball just doesn't work that way.

Sure, on any given day the worst team can beat the best team in baseball, but the scheduling, the post season system - they all favor the best team. Over a five or seven game series, the best team will invariably rise to the challenge, while the inferior team falters.

Yes, there might be a negligible difference between the teams on paper, but that's where the intangibles come in.

Just the way it is.

Nomenclature...


For roughly the last 60 years, major league franchises have either been on the move, or have searched for new identities - sometimes due to moves, sometimes without ever moving. There were a couple that were earlier than the last 60 years (the Redskins who once played in Boston come to mind), but it has happened with much higher frequency over the last six decades.

A brief list of once existing franchises (some still exist in some form, some are just gone) -

Frankford Yellow Jackets (football)
Brooklyn Dodgers (baseball)
Minneapolis Lakers (basketball)
New Orleans Jazz (basketball)
Houston Colt .45's (baseball)
Washington Bullets (basketball)
Chicago Cardinals (football)

Often the names have regional associations - the Browns were named for Paul Brown, the team's first coach. The New Orleans Jazz...well, that's obvious, and then you had the Brooklyn Trolley Dodgers.

Sometimes, like in the case of the Browns, the name really should stay with the place. I mean, really, what Lakes are even close to Los Angeles? Jazz in Salt Lake City? Yeah, right.

The Dodgers I can live with - I mean, they went from dodging trolleys to dodging bullets. Right?

But there really are just times that the teams need to change what they're doing when it comes to regional marketing. Imagine, for a moment, the Oklahoma City Marlins, or the Durham Twins or even the Pensacola Packers. Doesn't work, does it? There's a reason why the Minnesota North Stars became the Dallas Stars, and the Hartford Whalers became the Carolina Hurricanes.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Back

I am back from covering the World Beer Festival in Durham.

I highly recommend the event for any beer fans out there. They hold it at the home of the Durham Bulls - an absolutely beautiful ballpark. We stayed a ten minute walk away at the Morehead Manor Bed and Breakfast. If you ever have reason to be in Durham, I both recommend staying at the B&B and visiting the stadium for a game (season permitting).

Now onto the busy sports news of the last couple of days. I'm going to start with the Pats before I get to the Sox...

I was happy to see the Pats win. There were a number of things that I found encouraging that the team did on Sunday. However, there were times that the offensive line looked overwhelmed, and there were times that the Niners gashed the Patriots in the middle of the defensive line. Those things keep me concerned moving forward.

As does the fact that Cassel has only once thrown the ball away to avoid the sack.

Fairly or unfairly, Cassel will be compared to Tom Brady for the whole season. Unfairly, it will be to the Tom Brady of 2007, not 2001 when Brady, like Cassel, was still wet behind the ears and filling in for an accomplished veteran. I'm not going to make the mistake of comparing him to Brady.07.

No. What I'm going to do is look at what an untested, unproven late round draft-pick does from start to start against what another untested, late round draft pick did when he got his shot.

And the biggest difference between the two? After four appearances, including three starts (for both) Brady had been sacked eight times for 45 yards. Cassel has absorbed 15 sacks for 68 yards - a pace that will get him sacked 60 times during the season (Brady was sacked 41 times in 14 starts/15 games. Even projecting for Cassel's 16 games, Brady still would only have been sacked 47 times). He has to get better at just getting rid of the ball when there's nothing there.

Otherwise, this is how the two compare -

Cassel - 3-1 (2-1 as the starter), 70 of 104 for 707 yards (67.3 completion percentage), 3 TD's, 3 INT's.

Brady - 2-2 (2-1 as the starter and the team was 3-2 overall), 63 of 111 for 664 yards (56.8 completion percentage), 2 TD's, 0 INT's.

Brady's offense had turned the ball over eight times in the four games in which he appeared, to six times for the Cassel led teams.

The other interesting stat lies on the other side of the ball. The defenses in both seasons for the first four games in which they were dealing with the back-up signal caller on offense gave up exactly 79 points. The defense in 2001 forced six turnovers from the fateful Jets game in which Bledsoe injured himself, through to their 29-26 victory over the Chargers (putting the team at -2 in the turnover ratio). This year's defense has forced five (putting this year's team at -1).

As I've said before - I don't expect Cassel to develop into Tom Brady. But I think that Patriot Nation needs to back off. Despite his flaws, and I acknowledge he has 'em and they do worry me, I think we need to be patient with him.

Four of the team's next six opponents make up four of the five worst pass defenses in the league. Throw in a Colts team that seems to be clawing and scrounging for every win it gets, the hardest game between now and week 11 appears to be with the Bills.

If Cassel can guide the team to a 4-2 record during that stretch, not out of the question given the fact that the only team that looks truly dominant right now is playing in the Meadowlands (and I'm not talking about Gang Green), a 7-3 record at game ten puts the Pats in good position for a ten win season, and a likely playoff berth given that the only team in the AFC that looks en route to 12+win potential is Tennessee.

And onto the playoffs...


And so the Red Sox move on.

It seems like they're doing it differently each time.

In 2004 they had to come back from the brink. They did it with veterans - it was Curt Schilling and Derek Lowe and Pedro Martinez. It was David Ortiz, Dave Roberts, Manny Ramirez, Trot Nixon and Kevin Millar. The list goes on, but it was a largely veteran squad of mostly imports that liked to go by the name "the Idiots".

It was appropriate. They were loud, grungy, silly and had a lot of fun.

In 2007 the team absolutely dominated the Angels in the first round, scrapped around with the Indians in the second, winning that series 4-3. In the games the Sox won that round they averaged 10 runs per game while holding the Indians to an average of 2 runs per game. And then the Sox stomped on the hottest team in baseball, sweeping the World Series.

This year the Sox are getting it done with a lot of home-grown talent mixed with mid-season acquisitions. Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen, Jed Lowrie, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jason Bay, Mark Kotsay.

This year there are no Colorado Rockies-type teams in the playoffs.

There were the Angels who won more games than any other team in baseball. Three more than the Rays and five more than the Red Sox. They still buy into their own hype, believing they were better than the Red Sox.

Yes, the Red Sox got lucky bounces, and didn't drop balls, and didn't miss the clutch hits - except in game three when they had multiple opportunities to put the game away. They did things that the top teams are expected to do - perform under pressure, make the plays when needed. John Lackey can believe that the Angels are the better team all he wants. It doesn't make it true.

The better team doesn't outright miss getting the glove on routine grounders at short. The centerfielder doesn't pull up and fail to call off the second baseman on a short pop-fly to shallow center, a move that costs the team three runs. The better team's closer doesn't spit the bit in real pressure situations. I could go on, but I won't.

I do want to touch on Jon Lester, though.

He got jobbed out of a win in game four, but that's okay, the team won. Lester has been absolutely dominant in the post season, throwing 22 and 2/3's scoreless innings over three starts. Only one lefty in the history of the sport has thrown more in October - Babe Ruth with 29. Now we're seeing the team head into a potential seven game series against the Rays with a rotation that should see both Josh Beckett and Jon Lester pitch twice if it goes to a seven game series.

While the Rays have been impressive this year, this is new territory for them, but it's old hat for the Olde Town Team. Just because it's old hat, however, doesn't mean it's a sure thing...which brings me to my last thought.

Yes, I want to see the Sox win it all again - but I won't be crushed if the Rays do (I think that the eventual winner of the World Series will come out of the American League). Why, one might ask, wouldn't I be upset at the Rays winning?

Well, I won't lie - I would be disappointed if the Sox didn't make it, but there's a certain poetic MLB flipping of the metaphorical finger to the Steinbrenners should the team with the second lowest payroll in the league walk away with the championship. There's just something beautiful about that. Maybe no more than seeing the Sox win their third in five seasons, but it's still pretty damn good.