The Weigh In and other Quick Hits...

Well, was at 187 this morning, down 6 pounds from the start of the contest. With my wife's 5.5 pounds that brings us to 11.5 - 4.4 more than the in-laws...booyah.

This week, look for my year in review as well as a look at preseason picks and a look forward to the playoffs.

Quick hits on the weekend -

Nick Saban is likely on his way to Alabama. I don't think you entertain a job offer two years into a five year contract unless you plan on leaving...not to mention the last time Saban said he wasn't going anywhere he was in Louisiana and months later he was in Miami.

I think, in addition to Arizona and Atlanta, Pittsburgh will have a new coach next year. Other teams that may soon be looking include the Giants, contingent upon the headway they make in the post season, and Miami (see above). I think Romeo Crennel gets one more season to make things work in Cleveland and, due to the long standing relationship, Art Shell gets another season in Oakland.

I hope, for the sake of Darrent Williams family, that the drive by shooting that killed him this weekend turns out to be nothing more than being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

I figued that Tony Romo would come back to earth, but what the hell is going on with the Dallas defense?

The Baseball Player's Association and the new 'Roid Rage

So about 100 major league baseball players are about to be revealed as frauds.

The media-mavens are already positioning themselves. This morning on ESPN Radio Erik Kuselias, sitting in for Golic and Greenburg of Mike & Mike in the Morning fame said that he felt the fact that these players names could soon become public constituted a breach of faith with management and that players should never trust management again should those names go public, and that MLB should do everything in its power to keep their deal with the players union.

There are a few problems with that argument. One: management is not just handing over the names, the information was seized by the government. Two: management has no legal standing to contest the seizure. Posession of anabolic steroids, and most of the other performance enhancers by schmoes like you, me, and every player in MLB is illegal - a point often overlooked by too many fans and sportswriters that look for excuses to look the other way (ie: "I can only consider what the player did on the field," or, "the substances don't help you hit a ball," I'll rebut these later...). No company can legally invoke or enforce a contract which, in essence, protects illegal action - the contract is nothing more than a show piece and can not supersede law, and is therefore nothing more than, say, toilet paper. Three: the belief is that the government did this in order to nail Bonds on the perjury charge and Bonds's lawyers are already seeing this as an out, one that Bonds supporters will quickly buy into (See, Barry's not one of the names amongst that 100 or so cheaters) - problem is, what Bonds was doing (not allegedly, as papers from Victor Conte's private records already support this as fact) could not be tested for at the time.

The substances are illegal, and as such, it doesn't matter if baseball had no rule prohibiting them at the time. That's like saying, "it was okay for football player A to hide a shiv in his shoulder pads and hamstring opposing player B with it because it wasn't against football's rules." People - it's still assault.

As for the excuses - major excuse one, "doesn't help the player hit the ball." No, it doesn't. It takes a tremendous amount of skill and talent to hit a 95 mph fastball thrown by a major league pitcher. However, the substances make the player stronger, thus allowing balls that would otherwise be off the wall, or caught on the warning track to go farther. It allows that ground ball to get out of the infield faster, to get past that infielder trying to make a play. The substances also allow for quicker recoery from workouts which in turn increases energy and power. All of that results in better batting averages, elevated homerun and extra base totals and higher slugging percentages.

For the sports writers that use the defense "only what happens on the field," that's a cop-out. Especially since what happens on the field is directly affected by the use of the substances.

I know this is extreme, but in the end, as posession of these substances is illegal, I would like to see a little cooperation between the Justice Department and all of the major sports and jail time for the offenders that were caught on items like anabolic steroids. I understand the suspensions for other substances that might be banned from the games, but not necessarily illegal like the steroids. But in the case of illegal drugs, why should people like Barry Bonds be treated any differently than the crack-addict on the street?

Rogaine Users Take Note...

Insecure bald men everywhere! Rejoice! Tell Rogaine what they can do with their ads that play on your insecurity and take a look at the 20 hottest male athletes as ranked by SPORTS ILLUSTRATED SWIMSUIT MODELS...

The following of the Folicly-challenged made the list, with three in the top five and a major cue-ball coming in at number one;

#19, Football player Jason Taylor

#13, Tennis player James Blake

#4, Soccer player Zinedine Zidane

#3, Soccer player Fredrik Ljungberg

#1, Surfer Kelly Slater

For the curious, there are photos of each posted at si.com.

Playoff picture remains unclear...

After a weekend where all but four games could have a serious impact on the playoff race not many answers abound. However, there do seem to be a few more questions. Lets take a quick look at the playoffs by what each team did...



Division leaders W-L Div. Conf.

1. BEARS — x 12-2 4-0 10-0 Clinched NFC North and number one seed in the NFC, yet opened a whole ohst of questions about their defense heading into the playoffs.

2. SAINTS — y 9-5 4-1 8-2 Backed into clinching the NFC South with the losses by Atlanta and Carolina. Also, with their own loss needs to win out to assure themselves of the second seed, or hope that Dallas drops at least one of the final two games.

3. COWBOYS — z 9-5 2-3 6-4 NFC East Leader, if they win next weekend then they sew up the division. A loss means that they need to rely on the Eagles loss if they want the division title (Philly has the tie-breakers).

4. SEAHAWKS 8-6 3-3 6-5 NFC West Leader that opened the door to San Francisco to win the division with the loss to the 49ers over the weekend. However, still could win the division at 8-8 as long as San Fran drops one of the remaining two games. Don’t expect things to get easy for the Seahawks with a tilt against the Chargers this weekend.

Wild-card teams W-L Div. Conf.

5. EAGLES 8-6 4-1 7-3 With the upcoming game against Dallas, this team controls its own destiny and has a legitimate shot at winning the division in spite of the personell losses suffered this season.

6. GIANTS 7-7 3-2 6-4 With their loss to Philly, this under-achieving bunch will need help to get in. If they falter, they’re finished.

Still alive W-L Div. Conf.
7. FALCONS 7-7 3-2 5-5 Which Michael Vick shows up with the season on the line is anybody's guess, however, this is not the player a team should be pinning its playoff hopes on.

8. VIKINGS 6-8 2-3 6-4 Likely done after their lack-luster effort against the Jets.

9. PACKERS 6-8 3-1 5-5 With games against a demoralized Vikings team in Lambeau, and a Bears team that will be resting its starters, the Packers could leapfrog the Vikings, Falcons and Giants for the final wild card slot.

10. 49ERS 6-8 3-2 5-6 With games against Arizona and at Denver with a rookie quarterback, the 49ers have to be thinking they still have a shot and should be playing hard this week. A win this week with a Seattle loss and that week 17 matchup in Denver should be quite a game.

11. PANTHERS 6-8 3-1 4-6 Also likely done after their no-show against the Steelers at home.

12. RAMS 6-8 2-4 4-6 After a strong start, St. Louis has slipped badly and is unlikely to pass anyone still ahead of them.

AFC PLAYOFF SEEDING

Division leaders W-L Div. Conf.

1. CHARGERS — y 12-2 5-1 10-2 One more win seals the number one seed and the advantages that go with it. Expect them to seal the deal against an erratic Seattle team this weekend.

2. RAVENS — y 11-3 4-1 8-2 With an injured Steve McNair and two teams, Pittsburgh and Buffalo making some late season noise, the Ravens will have to rely on their defense more than ever this year.

3. COLTS — y 11-3 3-2 8-2 On paper, match-ups against Houston and Miami might seem an easier road than that faced by either the Patriots or the Ravens, unfortunately for the Colts, Houston has often played them tough (in spite of how bad they are) and Miami’s defense should pose problems for the Colts offense

4. PATRIOTS 10-4 4-2 6-4 Facing off against Jacksonville and Tennessee, New England has an opportunity to show that they can beat teams that are potential post-season contenders and close out their division title.

Wild-card teams W-L Div. Conf.

5. BRONCOS 8-6 3-2 3-6 With two teams on the slate fighting for their playoff lives, Mike Shanahan is about to find out how ready Jay Cutler really is.

6. BENGALS 8-6 4-1 6-4 After blowing a golden opportunity to move up and solidify their playoff standing, Cincy has put themselves in a must win position in tough games against Denver and Pittsburgh.

Still alive W-L Div. Conf.

7. JAGUARS 8-6 2-4 5-5 With this team’s inconsistency, I give the Jets a better chance to make the post-season dance.

8. JETS 8-6 3-2 5-5 I’ve said it once, will say it again: with games against Miami and Oakland remaining this team could finish 10-6 and in the playoffs. However, with this field, they could finish with that record and be out of the playoffs as well.

9. BILLS 7-7 3-3 5-5 Making a good late season surge, but, like everyone else behind them, needs a lot of dominoes to fall in front of them in order to make the playoffs.

10. TITANS 7-7 4-2 4-6 The surging Titans have a chance to be very dangerous to the Patriots, but don’t count on them making the playoffs.

11. STEELERS 7-7 2-2 4-6 Realistically, the Steelers are unlikely to make it to the playoffs, but with games against the Bengals and Ravens, they certainly can impact seeding.

12. CHIEFS 7-7 3-2 3-7 With their weak conference record they need too much to fall the right way to get in. The run is over in KC.

13. DOLPHINS 6-8 1-4 3-7 After being shut out by the Bills, the ‘Phins are done. All this team has to play for are their jobs next year.

x=clinched home-field advantage throughout playoffs
y=clinched division title
z=clinched playoff spot

At the weighing in

189 this morning, down a total of 4 pounds from the start. Should have posted yesterday when I was at 188.5. Bleah...

And as an addendum to Our Dumb Weekend, I present you with Kobe Bryant...
After being smoked for 60 points by Washington's Gilbert Arenas, whom Bryant was guarding, Bryant had this to say, "He doesn't seem to have much of a conscience. I really don't think he does. Some of the shots he took tonight, you miss those, and they're just terrible shots. Awful.
"You make them and they're unbelievable shots."

Isn't that kind of like saying, "you know, if the Patriots didn't get on that eight game winning streak at the end of the 2001 season, they wouldn't have won the Super Bowl that year"?

This from a guy who I've seen in playoff games lay more bricks than a mason.

Our Stupid Weekend...

As I sit watching the Monday Night game I decided that I would pre-empt my analysis of this past weekend's playoff race to reflect on the stupidity that was professional athletics this past weekend.

In no particular order of stupidity...

Hitting the Chicago papers on the 16th - Tank Johnson, the Chicago defensive tackle who has already had several run ins with the law is likely done in Chicago. The second round pick (47th overall) from the 2004 draft was more active in the Illinois court system than he was on the grid-iron during his time at Soldier Field. This latest incident with his childhood friend and supposed body guard shot and killed (with him reportedly present) is probably the beginning of the end.
It's possible that some team will give him another chance (I'm thinking you Cincinatti), but underachieving nose tackles are a dime a dozen.

Jim Mora the younger...what were you thinking? You're a 40+ year old man coaching a team fighting for its playoff life and you tell a radio station in Seattle that you would if the head coaching job came available at your alma mater, the University of Washington, that you would hope your resume was right at the top of the pile for consideration? And your excuse is that you were kidding around? You are officially on the idiot list.

Terrell Owens spitting in the face, of DeAngelo Hall because he was "getting in my face"? How long have you been playing football? That was completely classless. I can't wait for the time when the winning teams realize that his problems and his divisiveness far outweigh his talent and potential.
I have a hunch Parcells has figured it out, and realizes that if they don't win that ring this year, it's not going to happen next year, not with T.O.

Speaking of classless. How about that Isaiah Thomas and the Knicks. If reports are accurate that Thomas told Carmello Anthony to stay out of the paint about 30 seconds ahead of the flagrant foul by New York's Mardy Collins (who got nine games fewer than Mello), then Thomas, who is also the Knicks general manager, and as such should be held to a higher standard than a coach, needs to be fined and suspended for a significant period.
Additionally, Collins, who isn't even a regular in the Knicks rotation, was put in one other time recently and committed, guess what? A flagrant foul. A Technical. The guy is a thug that only gets playing time when Thomas wants someone taken down hard. Stern missed the boat.
And as for Isaiah - Denver wasn't embarassing you and your Knicks....you're doing it quite well on your own.

Meme from my sister-in-law, then tonight a look at the weekend in sports

10 Things You Don't Know About Me

1) I got my daughter watching Justice League and reading comic books for purely selfish reasons (there's a lot less Spongebob playing in the house right now), and am proud to no end that she can identify The Martian Manhunter and Hawkwoman.
2) I worry about losing my connection with my daughter as she gets older.
3) I miss coaching football, even with the stress that went with it.
4) In spite of how much I might talk, I am not really a social person, but I like to watch the comings and goings when in a bar, restaurant or some other nexus of the public.
5) I sometimes miss my students, pains in the ass that they were when I was still teaching high school English.
6) I have a soft place in my heart for Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, and sometimes catch myself wishing that would actually happen in the Senate.
7) I am an avid sentimentalist.
8) I would like to once track down all my high school friends to see how each is doing. I don't need to be in touch, I would just like to know that they are doing well.
9) I get angry over the fact that disarmament demands have been made on the IRA over Sinn Fein's participation in the provisional Northern Ireland Parliament when the same demand is not being made on the UVF in regards to Ian Paisley's participation. I don't mean annoyed, I mean ball up a fist and beak something sort of angry.
10) I am a film snob, yet love certain bad films that I know are bad (The New Guy, I'm talking about you)

Parity rears its ugly head again...

With the salary cap the NFL wanted to create a system in which there were no true dynasties, no teams that would dominate the NFL for stretches like the Steelers and Dolphins did in the 70's and the 49ers did in the 80's, and, to a lesser extent, the Cowboys in the 90's. The corporate minds wanted to create an atmosphere where worst to first was not out of the question.
Last night the San Francisco 49ers (now 6-8) inched closer to making that resemble their story by ringing up 21 points on the now 8-6 Seahawks. If Seattle should lose their final two games (after last night's performance it's a distinct possibility), and the 'Niners win their last two, then the San Fran will have changed their fortunes...somewhat. They weren't last in the division last year, but they weren't far off of that. And an 8-8 record would launch them into the vast canyon of mediocrity that will be the four through six seeds of the NFC playoffs.

More on what has happened in regards to the dying dynasty later.

The potential playoff impact of Week 15

The brain trust at the NFL has to be overjoyed heading into tonight's game. This weekend features at least twelve games that could have a potential impact on the playoffs. And an argument can be made for the Browns-Ravens, and Dolphins-Bills games. If the Browns can pull the upset, and that's a big if, the game could have a direct impact on playoff seeding. While long shots, both the Bills and 'Phins have played themselves into position to possibly snag a wild-card, but that would be dependent on a lot of things going wrong for the teams ahead of them, and five teams crashing and burning in the last three games - very unlikely.
A month ago it looked like the Bears and Colts were locks for the top seeds in their respective conferences. To date, the Colts have fallen into a tie with Baltimore and behind the Chargers who are hoping to lock up the number seed. Chicago has secured one of the byes in the NFC, but could still find themselves on the road for the Championship game (if they can win their home game) depending on what happens over the next three weekends.

Right now, this is how things stand:

NFC
1. Chicago (11-2) Clinched NFC North
2. New Orleans (9-4) NFC South Leader
3. Dallas (8-5) NFC East Leader
4. Seattle (8-5) NFC West Leader
5. Atlanta (7-6) Wild Card
6. NY Giants (7-6) Wild Card
-----------------------
7. Philadelphia (7-6)
8. Minnesota (6-7)
9. Carolina (6-7)
10. St. Louis (5-8)
11. San Francisco (5-8)
12. Green Bay (5-8)

AFC
1. San Diego (11-2) Clinched AFC West
2. Baltimore (10-3) AFC Central Leader
3. Indianapolis (10-3) AFC South Leader
4. New England (9-4) AFC East Leader
5. Cincinnati (8-5) Wild Card
6. Jacksonville (8-5) Wild Card
-----------------------
7. Denver (7-6)
8. NY Jets (7-6)
9. Kansas City (7-6)
10. Miami (6-7)
11. Tenessee (6-7)
12. Buffalo (6-7)
13. Pittsburgh (6-7)

Currently 13 teams that are not in the playoffs are in position to potentially make it. This translates into a slate that could completely change the look of the playoffs between now and that first game in January. Let's list them in order of importance and impact (randomly attributed by me...deal with it)...

A quick look at the key games and some potential impact...

The Big Game

Cincinnati (8-5) at
Indianapolis (10-3)
Amazingly, the Colts have not managed to wrap up their division, and with the way their defense is playing the team is in danger of hosting only a first round game in the dome. If it weren't for a week 16 tilt against the lowly Texans, I would say that they could possibly be passed in the standings by a Jacksonville team that's beginning to get healthy.
Meanwhile, the NFL's loudest criminal contingent has begun to play their best football of the year in recent weeks and is cementing at the very least, a wild-card spot.
Look for the Bengals to be too much for a floundering Indy team.

The Undercard

Dallas (8-5) at
Atlanta (7-6)
If Dallas loses, they move into a tie for the division lead with the winner of NY-Philly, and are in second by virtue of tie-breakers. Dallas can still land a bye, but would have to move past a New Orleans team that has a weak schedule. Look for Dallas to move closer to locking up the NFC East against an Atlanta squad that's becoming unhealthy at the wrong time.
If, as expected, Atlanta loses, this opens up some serious fighting for the last wild-card spot in the NFC.

Philadelphia (7-6) at
New York Giants (7-6)
Whoever loses this one isn't done, but it certainly makes it harder. Depending on how the chips fall around the NFC, it's feasible that three playoff teams can come out of this division.
The winner here positions itself well for one of the wild-card slots, and possibly to take the division if Dallas falters down the stretch.

Pittsburgh (6-7) at
Carolina (6-7)
The Steelers' chances at the playoffs depend on too many other teams, but Carolina, with a win combined with an Atlanta loss and a loss from either the Giants or Eagles can put themselves right back in the thick of the wild-card hunt.

New York Jets (7-6) at
Minnesota (6-7)
With both teams only a game out of the wild-card, a win combined with one or two losses elsewhere could catapult one of these teams into the playoffs. A loss doesn't kill either, but with only two games to make up ground after this weekend, it might as well.

Denver (7-6) at
Arizona (4-9)
Arizona has a legitimate shot at playing spoiler to the of late struggling Broncos playoff hopes. Even if Denver wins, like the Jets, they will have to leap-frog at least one team ahead of them to get into the second season.

Jacksonville (8-5) at
Tennessee (6-7)
While the Titans have a shot at the playoffs, albeit a slim one, they have a better chance of upsetting the Jaguars bid at making some noise in the playoffs. With a resurgent Titans team, the Jags have a tougher game ahead of them than might have been thought as recently as a month ago.

Kansas City (7-6) at
San Diego (11-2)
San Diego is playing for homefield. Kansas is playing for their lives and the memory of Lamar Hunt. If they can't get it going for this game, then they're not going to get to the playoffs, it's do or die for the Chiefs right now.

Houston (4-9) at
New England (9-4)
If New England had destroyed Detroit, and at least put together a respectable showing on offense against Miami, this game wouldn't even make the list. However, this is a chance to see if the Patriots have made any progress in correcting the offensive issues (turnovers, completions) that will cause an ouster in the playoffs and have been plaguing the team this season.
Should they right the ship and win, they still have a shot at one of the byes, although they would have to leapfrog the Colts and Baltimore to do so. The way the Colts have been playing, that is possible...Baltimore is another story.

San Francisco (5-8) at
Seattle (8-5)
The fact that the 49ers with only 5 wins have not been mathmatically eliminated from the playoffs speaks volumes about the NFC. Seattle could also feasibly lose their remaining three games and win the division at 8-8.
As is, they're only one game behind New Orleans and still have a shot at the remaining bye in the NFC.

Washington (4-9) at
New Orleans (9-4)
With a win and losses by both Dallas and Seattle the Saints will all but lock up the second bye. Should they stumble here, while those teams win, it opens up a dogfight in the NFC over the final weeks of the season.

and

Tampa Bay (3-10) at
Chicago (11-2)
Simply put - if Chicago wins, they sew up homefield advantage through the post season. If they lose, they leave the door open to the Saints in regards to landing that home-field advantage through the championship season.

Looking like Matsuzaka will be in the fold

By the deadline at the price I thought the Red Sox would pay to get the Japanese star. Assuming Jon Lester's lymphoma stays in remission, an early look at the starters going into training camp, and maybe a preview of the Sox rotation next season;

Curt Schilling
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Josh Beckett
Jonathan Paplebon
Tim Wakefield
Jon Lester
Matt Clement
Kyle Snyder

Anyone else think that Clements days are numbered, and that Snyder is going to be the swing man out of the pen?

Sayonara Doug Gabriel, we hardly knew ya.

I normally don't post these, but this time...

Which B-Movie Badass Are You?

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A Frustrating Weekend All Around

I'll start with the light fare before I get into my football rants.

The weighing in - Technically, tomorrow is the update, so I could drop some of the weight, but right now I am at 190.5. I'm disappointed that this weekend's Christmas party did me in. On Friday I was at 189.5. I'm going to have to be aggressive with my workouts and caloric intake, between now and Christmas (targeting 185 by the Holiday) because I will be at my parents for Christmas and whenever my family gets together it's like a food, beer and wine festival.

Onto the weekend.

So I will admit, New Orleans is for real, and at this point I would have to say they're the favorites in the NFC.

The Patriots -

Not that it mattered in the end, but the roughing the passer call on Vince Wilfork as he laid on the ground, face down, falling off his block, when Joey Harrington tripped over him, might have been the worst call I have ever seen.
The reason it didn't matter in the end is that whoever is calling the Patriots offensive plays was downright...well, offensive yesterday. Whether it was Bill Belichick or Josh McDaniels, by the second half, with the struggles that the offensive line was having in pass protection, it was inexcusable for the offense to be in any empty backfield sets.
That was akin to putting a target a raw steak on Brady's chest and thinking that the wild animals were going to sit placidly waiting to be fed the steak. No. The Miami defense came after him. I don't think that any of the empty backfield sets ended well for the Patriots yesterday.
Some numbers to consider in regards to the offensive play calling...
During the time Brady was in the game 25 passes were called and 24 runs.
However, when the Patriots approached mid-field, let's say between the 30's, 17 passes were called to 9 runs. Of those 17 drop-backs Brady completed 8 passes, 47 percent, for a net of 26 yards (a 3.25 yard average), was sacked twice and the team had two give-aways.
In that same area of the field 9 running plays were called with a net of 59 yards. An average of slightly better than 6.5 yards per carry.
In that territory running plays accounted for only 35 percent of the plays called.
I know that the idea is to stay conservative in the shadow of your own end zone, but when you're averaging more than double the yardage per carry than per pass and your franchise QB is taking a beating, play to what your offensive line is doing best - run blocking.
I fail to understand the insistence of playing the empty set when the Dolphins were putting three pass-rushers where there were only two blockers whenever the empty set was being run.

And to make matters worse - the Patriots had the opportunity to pull into a tie with the Colts due to the Colts being run on like a treadmill by the Jaguars.

Seattle should be embarrassed this morning. Like the Patriots, the Seahawks had a chance to step closer to sewing up the division with a win against a losing team and failed to seal the deal. At least the Patriots didn't lose to Arizona.

Scott Boras playing this game of chicken with D-Mat is comical. Boras has absolutely no leverage. If he walks away without getting D-Mat a deal, Matsuzaka returns to Japan for a year and Boras likely has burned his bridge into the Japanese market. D-Mat will file again next year to start this same process over and would be unlikely to do it with an agent that couldn't seal the deal the first time around.
His request for $15 million over 3 years for a pitcher unproven on the Major League level is insane as any team will factor in the bid paid to the Seibu Lions as part of the annual average salary for Matsuzaka. With the Sox $51 million bid (paid to the Lions only if the Sox reach a deal with Matsuzaka). In essence, Boras is saying his client is worth almost $30 million per year to the Red Sox.
If I'm the Sox, I stick to my guns and aim for a five year deal averaging between $6 million and $7 million with incentives and option years that could boost the contract at the tail end.
In the end the average for the team spent on the player is about $16 million per year rather than double that.
Of course, Boras's logic, I'm sure, is that none of that $51 million goes to the player, so it shouldn't count against the player's salary. Unfortunately for him, no team is going to agree with that.

And now for the AFC…

AFC West

Preseason picks 1. Broncos, 2. Chargers, 3. Chiefs, 4. Raiders

1. San Diego – Rivers has come as advertised in the pre-season. I have been impressed and surprised by both his poise and consistency…now if there were just a way to avoid “Marty-ball” come January.
2. Chiefs – With the problems at the beginning of the season on the offensive line, I didn’t think this team was a playoff contender (and they still might miss out). I was wrong.
2. Denver – Like the Redskins, but better. I expected this team to compete for a wild-card spot, but now I don’t think it’s going to happen. Maybe if Mike Shanahan went to Jay Cutler earlier, but not now.
4. Oakland – Better on defense than I expected, but a special sort of horrible on offense…so bad that front offices of other teams have doubts about taking on skill players like Randy Moss – often referred to as “unsalvageable.”

AFC South

Preseason picks 1. Colts, 2. Jaguars, 3. Titans, 4. Texans

1. Indianapolis – Beginning to show signs of wear with a narrow escape against the Bills, and losses to the Cowboys and the Titans all within a four game span.
2. Jacksonville – Too erratic to call a playoff contender. Could do it if they get on a roll, also could crash and burn in the last four games.
3. Tennessee – Could legitimately claw their way into the second spot in the division, though not into the playoffs.
4. Houston – This perennially underachieving team is only one game behind the surging Titans in the standings and three behind Jacksonville with only four left to play. It’s unlikely that this is the season they climb out of the South’s basement.

AFC North

Preseason picks 1. Bengals, 2. Steelers, 3. Ravens, 4. Browns

1. Baltimore – I honestly thought this was going to be a rebuilding year for the Ravens. Obviously, I was wrong.
2. Cincy – Possibly getting hot at the right time after sliding mid-season. Will likely have to compete with the Jets and Chiefs for two playoff spots (Denver and the Jags as well, IF those two can find that elusive winning formula on offense for the stretch run).
3. Pittsburgh – Statement is September: “IF Pittsburgh has to ride the arm of Roethlesburger all season, they might not even make the playoffs.” Guess who’s had to put the ball in the air more than any time in his professional career?
4. Ceveland – If they can get the middle of their offensive line back and healthy next year, could move to the middle of the pack. Only a game behind the Steelers with one to play against them, the Browns could move up in the division, causing the Steeltowners to go into that dreaded first-to-worst one season turn around.

AFC East

Preseason picks 1. Patriots, 2. Dolphins, 3. Bills, 4. Jets

1. New England – Still making too many mistakes right now to be considered a serious Super Bowl contender, but has time to straighten that out. Like the Ravens, are in position to fight for one of the first round byes but has to rely on other teams to make it happen.
2. New York – A solid year ahead of where I thought they would be this time of year. Could make some noise in the playoffs.
3. Buffalo – Locked in a battle to stay out of the basement. Still not sold on Losman, possibly the fourth best signal caller in the division.
3. Miami – Not going anywhere this year, but could spoil the Pats bid for a first-round bye.


Dropping the ball…literally

During the last three weeks the Patriots have turned the ball over more times than during any three game stretch under Bill Belichick. It has been ugly, sloppy, careless football. On top of the turnovers, there have been a number of times they have put the ball on the ground when they were lucky enough to recover themselves.

Not to take anything away from the defenses that the Patriots have been playing, but almost all of the Benjamin Watson related turnovers could have been avoided with better ball protection. That accounts for at least three turnovers (giving Chicago the benefit of the doubt on their first interception and leaving that as a turnover). Corey Dillon’s fumble against the Lions – avoidable. Going back to the Jets and Doug Gabriel – avoidable. Patrick Pass fumble? Avoidable. Just a small sampling here of the last four games, but that’s at least a turnover per game less.

If the Patriots don’t solve the turnover issue, they will likely be one and done in the playoffs, because in the AFC playoffs they won’t face a team with Rex Grossman at the helm.

Dropping the ball II

The NFL has seen fit to suspend Saints defensive tackle Hollis Thomas for testing positive for steroids. Both the Saints and an independent doctor have come to Thomas’s defense in regards to the issue stating that the positive test was due to a change in his asthma medication necessitated by the climate change from Philly to the Bayou, but Thomas is still to serve a suspension.

I am normally a vocal proponent of the league’s steroid testing policy (see my blog entry regarding Shawn Merriman), but this is a case where I think, if the man really has a history of asthma, then I think this either needs to be revisited now, or, if agreements prevent it, then when the league and the players have a chance to discuss the collective bargaining agreement.

The league is likely thinking that this is opening the door to a whole new excuse that will allow legions of players to cheat the system. I think as long as proof of a history exists, they have a way around that.

Dropping the ball III

I’m going to ask around, but it seems to me that with the advent of officiating teams that stay together for the course of the season that officiating has gotten worse. I feel like the number of questionable calls I have seen this year has been mind bogglingly high. For every blatantly bad call I’ve seen go against the Pats, I could probably point out one that has gone against an opponent, or a team in another game.

These haven’t been the five yard, oh well variety either. Some of them have had potentially game changing implications.

I will, however, use two calls against the Pats as an example. Against Chicago the Patriots were called for two long pass interference calls. Both calls came on plays where the defensive backs both had position on the receiver and were playing the ball. In fact, on at least one of the plays, the receiver appeared to be trying to turn the defensive back (the wonder of TiVo…I did indeed replay these plays several times to make sure I could see what the refs did). As I said, I’ve seen others go against other teams, those are just two of the more glaring examples I could think of.

I would love to get some feedback on that last observation.

Made Mike Silver's mailbag...

Written before the Chicago game and published on 12/1...

"You cited the following in your article -- 'It is true that none of the Pats' seven victories has come against teams that currently have a winning record, and New England was defeated by fellow AFC contenders Denver and Indy...' an item typically cited by reporters in hindsight (I've done it myself). But that discounts what records were of opponents at the time and the consideration of the impact of a particular game on the rest of the season (a little film exposing a flaw goes a long ways, doesn't it?). To wit: The Bengals were 3-0 when they hosted the Pats. Not including the loss to the Pats they are 2-4 since (NOTE: This letter was written before last weekend's games), with one of those wins eked out over the Panthers. The Vikings: 4-2 at the time, 0-3 since the loss to NE. Discounting the loss to Denver, because the team went into a bye immediately after they faced the Patriots and discounting Green Bay (whom I would pick against this weekend based on the following alone), no team that has faced the Patriots this season and had a game to play the next weekend is better than .500 in its subsequent two games. Indy is 1-1 (getting away with a win in Buffalo they easily could have lost), the Bills are 1-1 after each of their losses to the Pats and overall, the winning percentage of these teams .357 -- 5-9 (5-10 if you include the Jets from this past weekend dropping that to a dismal .333). Just some observations that I thought bore some consideration. BTW, as a Pats fan, I am wary of how Brady has played against some of the smaller, faster defenses this year and believe that this game could be seen as a real measuring stick.
-- Kevin Smith, Brunswick, Md.

I think what you're saying is, basically, "All my ex-girlfriends got really fat after we broke up"? Got it. I'm now a lot more interested in seeing how the Bears do against the Vikings this week.

Incidently - Chicago did win with its offense managing to score only 7 of the 23 total points scored on a 24 yard romp by Cedric Benson. The only thing that kept Minnesota from winning this was the fact that Brad Johnson was more incompetent this game than was Rex Grossman.

AFC updates and my rants on sloppy football later today.

NFL Quarterly update and other thoughts...

Before I get started on the quarterly update - nice to see Jon Lester declared cancer-free. That being said, I am related to cancer survivors and have one thing to say to Lester - Take care of yourself and get checked regularly, this is something that will be with you the rest of your days. Good luck, I look forward to seeing you pitch again next season.

Onto the update

NFC East

Preseason picks 1. Cowboys, 2. Eagles, 3. Giants, 4. Redskins

1. Dallas - getting hot at the right time.
2. NY - Crashing and burning. With upcoming games against Carolina, Philadelphia and New Orleans, I don't like the Big Blue Wrecked Crew's chances, even with the injured returning.
2. Philly - Still could finish in second, but I'm not convinced at this point that we're looking at the division that will produce one of the wild card teams.
4. DC - About what I expected at the beginning of the season. This is a team that can barely begin the deal, let alone seal it. Gibbs went to Jason Campbell way too late.

NFC North

Preseason picks 1. Bears, 2. Vikings, 3. Lions, 4. Packers

1. Chicago -This could be one and done in the playoffs for the best record in the NFC if Grossman doesn't learn to protect the ball.
2. Minnesota - Haven't been the same since the beating they took from New England
3. Green Bay - Not quite as ugly as expected....but close.
4. Detroit - I think Marinelli needs to be given some time, but this is a team still in serious disarray.

NFC South...boy was I off here 1. Panthers, 2. Bucs, 3. Falcons, 4. Saints

1. New Orleans - Quickest rebuilding year ever. Along with Dallas, I think the most dangerous of the NFC teams heading to the playoffs.
2. Carolina - Too Jeckyl and Hyde, could make the playoffs, could be sitting at home. Seldom seem to play as if their season is on the line.
2. Atlanta - Sure the receivers have dropped a lot of balls, but Vick still isn't that good a quarterback either.
4. Tampa - When depth problems in the NFL are discussed, this is the NFC team that should be looked at.

NFC West 1. Seahawks, 2. Rams, 3. Cardinals, 4. 49ers
1. Seattle - At 8-4 the 'Hawks are running away with the division...and not looking good doing it.
2. San Fran - In a weak NFC has fought its way into playoff contention with a rousing record of 5-7. Even so, still better than I expected.
2. St. Louis - After a strong start, has crashed and burned.
4. Arizona - As I wrote back in September, a team with a suspect O-line isn't going anywhere.

Tomorrow the AFC.

A little contest...

So my sister-in-law has snared my me, my wife and her husband in a shedding pounds contest. Here are the details:

Deadline April 1
Teams-so we have accountability in and outside of the home

Scale: We are not trying to get to the same weight, so it doesnt matter that our scales are off. whats important is the weight lost.

Also, we should get measurements-perhaps even do a separate prize for inches lost(25 for most lbs, 25 for most inches?). If you want to do this, we will need to get thigh, hip, waist, chest, and upper arm measurements from all participants. I think this would be a good idea since weight loss is not always apparent in numbers. Michael and Kevin, in theory, would gain more muscle than lose weight.

Starts tomorrow.

After a particularly debauched weekend of football and feeding, I am starting from 193 pounds. I will post updates here on a weekly basis.

Also, tomorrow, the three-quarter mark observations, and a few rants about sloppy football...

There's been a lot of talk

Today about the luck the Patriots had getting away with a win yesterday.

It was not pretty.

In fact, it was pretty ugly...well, at least on the offensive side of the ball.

The Patriots offense coughed up the ball five times. Three times on four fumbles and twice on interceptions, only one of which was Brady's fault.
Corey Dillon has now turned the ball over twice in two weeks and yesterday two of the turnovers started in the hands of Watson, so I really think it's time Doug Gabriel gets out of Belichick's doghouse.

The lone turnover that was Brady's fault was a pass thrown high and slightly behind Troy Brown on an attempt where Brady had enough time to finish the New York Times Sunday Crossword puzzle. After a solid five or six seconds surveying the field, Brady finally threw the ball while under pressure - and as I said before - off target, resulting in a tipped ball and an interception.

The defense, while not exactly stout against the run (and noticeably weaker in the middle without Junior Seau), did what they needed to in order to win in spite of (and this is not something I will normally rant on, but this was particularly egregious), two of the worst pass interference calls I have seen and a weak defensive holding call that set up ten of Chicago's 13 points. On both pass interference calls the Patriots defensive player had better position on the ball than the receiver and was playing ball. On the first one, the receiver had even grabbed the defensive back and was pulling on his jersey. I would love to hear the conversation between Mike Perreira and this officiating crew this week.

Other thoughts on the weekend...

Watching the highlights of the Giants TEN MINUTE MELTDOWN, I couldn't help but think that the Giants season might well be done.
This is a team where the veterans aren't executing, and then blaming the coaching staff for their own inability to get the job done. It ain't pretty.
I think I liked Tiki Barber before he was full of himself. When Tom Coughlin arrived, the book on Barber was that he was an undersized running back, best suited to third down situations and prone to fumbling.
Before you start bitching and moaning about the way your coach uses you, you might want to remember how you were used before Coughlin started running the show in the Meadowlands, not to mention who helped you get over that fumbling issue.

Is there a better story in football right now than the Saints?

A brief reflection on preseason predictions...
The NFL's toughest division (according to the preseason), the NFC East, could have only one winning team at season's end. Currently Dallas is the cream of the crop with 7 wins, the Giants are imploding and could feasibly finish at 7-9 or 8-8. The Eagles will be lucky to finish out the string at 7-9 and the Redskins might get to 6 wins, although I think 5 is more likely.
If it all falls the way I'm guessing, Dallas will be 11-4, Giants at 7-9, Eagles at 6-10 and Skins at 5-11. If the Giants can eke out one more win than I think they have in them and get to .500 that could be enough to get into the post season in a conference that currently has five sub .500 teams only one game out of the playoffs. There is an outside chance that this could be the first season of a sub-.500 wild-card entrant.
The NFL's weakest division (according to the preseason prognostocators) was supposed to see the changing of the guard. Nick Saban was supposed to lead his Dolphins to the Super Bowl this year.
The Patriots are likely to reach the 12 win, possibly 13 win mark. The Jets are likely to make it to 10 wins...and could still miss the postseason. Miami is charging late again and looks like they will finish at 8-8 and Buffalo could feasibly have 7 wins by the end. If that happens, then the AFC East will have the winningest last place team in their division, likely finishing the season with a record that would put them ahead of the Steelers and Browns if they played in the North, the Titans and Texans if they played in the South, and the Raiders in the West.
I won't even speculate as to where they would finish in the NFC on the premise that if they played in the NFC full time, they'd probably have a better record overall (although they do seem to have the AFC South's number, beating Houston, Jacksonville and coming within a blown field goal of pulling the upset over Indianapolis).

I would like to see the Patriots use the injury to Seau as a rallying point. The man is a Hall-of-Famer and deserves the one reward he has been denied throughout his career - a Super Bowl ring. Win this one for 55 guys.

And in other news...

Am I the only Boston fan sick of the Clemens thing. Forget about signing Clemens - at this age he's not worth the special treatment, and we already went through the Rest Home Rotation last year with Schilling, Wells, and Wakefield at the top of the rotation. You've got the mentors in Schilling and Wakefield. Papelbon is going into the rotation. Get Daisuke Matsuzaka signed and have some of the youg guns fight it out for that last spot in the rotation.

Next week, the quarterly evaluation...

A Dear John letter from Pat Dunne, an Eagles Fan...

Dear Andy,

I want you to know that I still have strong feelings for the team, and Lord knows I always will. But I just don't see us working out this year.

I'm sure Jeff is a great quarterback, but without Donovan ... well ... I feel that we've grown apart.

Please don't take this the wrong way...we'll always have next season.Buck up, big guy. Here's a Big Mac.

Regards,

Pat

Maybe the Patriots shouldn't be trying for homefield advantage

in the playoffs. Consider these two items presented by Peter King in his Monday Morning Quarterback column for your consideration...

"• New England's 2-3 at home. The two worst teams in creation, Detroit and Oakland, are 2-3 at home.
• New England's 5-0 on the road, and the last four wins have come by margins of 35, 24, 22 and 25 points."

That can't be normal.

More proof we're ass-backwards and other thoughts on the week...

As the handful of you that actually visit my blog and read my rants know, I typically stick to ranting about sports. Whether you agree with a point of view or not, it's an easy subject upon which to have a good-natured argument. Other than a brief rant some time ago on the idiocy of the "No Child Left Behind" act, I have largely stayed away from anything that is truly controversial.

In light of a report today about South African politics, I just need to make this brief comment - and will not go into detail - South Africa, a country in which the majority black population received the right to vote only twelve years ago, has passed a bill that makes it legal for gays to marry. According to the Associated Press report out of Cape Town, "The National Assembly passed the Civil Union Bill, worked out after months of heated public discussion, by a majority of 230 to 41 votes..."

What is wrong with our country? All the right wingers claim to be more patriotic than the liberals (I have voted Democratic, Republican and Independent in my life), yet it seems that the right wingers are always the the first ones to throw the following statement from the Declaration of Independence out the window, "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights..."

I know I'm a little rusty on my U.S. History, but the last time I checked, there wasn't any fine-print in the document about "unless their sexual preference bothers you."

I think this part of the article sums it up best;
"When we attained our democracy, we sought to distinguish ourselves from an unjust painful past, by declaring that never again shall it be that any South African will be discriminated against on the basis of color, creed culture and sex," Home Affairs Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula told the National Assembly.

I guess, considering the continued state of a black-majority New Orleans that is still waiting on promised federal aid, I really shouldn't be surprised that a country that only overcame Apartheid less than a decade-and-a-half ago is already more progressive than we are.

On to lighter fare...

What's wrong with Tom Brady and the Patriots? There are a couple of issues that I can see - some Brady's fault, some the fault of the offensive line, some the play calling.

Currently Brady is looking a lot like Bledsoe did in his last two seasons with the Patriots. To wit; in spite of the health issues along the line last year, the Patriots did a decent job of protecting Brady. I don't have the numbers, but I'm not convinced that Brady is getting hit or sacked anymore than in previous years, but he is getting more passes knocked down and tipped at the line of scrimmage. There are two reasons for this issue; One, the line is not doing a good job of clearing the passing lanes; Two, Brady's pocket awareness, for whatever reason, is not as good this season - he isn't stepping up in the pocket to create the lane.

The defense that Brady is getting used to his receivers wears a little thin when he overthrows longtime teammate and wide-open tight-end Daniel Graham by a solid five, maybe eight yards, against the Jets. Brady was not pressured on the throw, and this was not one of the receivers that joined the team during the off-season. It was a bad throw, as was a pass that was thrown behind an open Ben Watson, and the interception thrown behind Lawrence Maroney.

In the two losses, the Patriots were running the ball well, and, after being stopped for little gain, went to an aerial attack with a Tom Brady that has begun, as I said previously, to look like Drew Bledsoe did when the Patriots line wasn't giving him good protection. Not a winning formula.

The only game this year in which Brady has looked comfortable - Minnesota. If Brady can only get into a rhythm if he's throwing on every down, then the Patriots should get used to the idea of enjoying the Super Bowl from their living rooms.

As for Bledsoe - enjoy your retirement. I say this because I like Bledsoe as a person and as a player. It is time to hang up the spikes.
I believe that Bledsoe is still capable of winning in this league, I just don't think that the handful of teams that have lines that could possibly protect him are going to come calling. It's time to walk away, while your career stats are still better than Broadway Joe's.

If he doesn't, possible destinations for next year, where he could do well, are limited. The Vikings have a better line than the Cowboys, and are not in the Brady Quinn sweepstakes, but I'm not convinced they're going to come calling.
Other places that may be looking - Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Oakland. A contract in any of those locations and Bledsoe best have his cemetery plot picked out.

You were very good for the better part of a decade, and still showed flashes after that hit. Enjoy retirement.

Is T.O. the most overrated player in the NFL, or is it Chad Johnson? Johnson just doesn't get in the endzone that much and T.O. drops too many passes.

I go back and forth on the Colts chances for the Super Bowl. They were unable to put away the Patriots when they had a chance, and they got lucky against the Bills. That being said, they are winning games the way the Patriots won during their first Super Bowl run - close. Nobody gave the Pats a chance going into the post season because they weren't blowing anybody out...sound familiar?
There were all sorts of shortcomings on the defense that a good offense was supposed to be able to take advantage of. Also familiar.