Between a rock and a hard case

Football players sacrifice their bodies for a lot of reasons. For many it's the large salaries, for some it's the love of the game, and for others it's the glory that a championship brings. They sacrifice their health and well being. They put a lot on the line.

They are professional sports' tough guys (face it, hockey players are tougher, but that's only because they're certifiably insane - it' not the same thing as just being tough).

Players garner reputations for toughness and durability. Brett Favre has played in every game since he got his first start...in a leather helmet. At least it feels like that's when he got his first start. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning also have started every game since starting - in spite of being banged up. Drew Bledsoe won consecutive games with a pin holding together the tip of his index finger on his throwing hand (and he wasn't leading those comebacks by handing the ball off). He even tried to come back into the now famous Jets game after shearing an artery in his chest (sure, he wasn't in his right mind, but you get the point).

Hall-of-Fame Rams defensive end Jack Youngblood famously played in the NFC Championship game and subsequently Super Bowl XIV with a stress fracture in his left leg. Lawrence Taylor and Emmitt Smith were both major factors in playoff games for their respective teams while each played with a separated shoulder. Terrell Davis famously suffers from debilitating migraines, and had one during Super Bowl XXXII. According to Davis it was so bad that he had trouble seeing. It didn't stop him from lining up, if for nothing else, as a decoy in Denver's backfield.

Recently Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers, both listed as questionable and game-time decisions for the Chargers' loss to the Patriots in this past weekend's AFC Championship game, toughed out the game in the hopes of landing that Super Bowl berth.

Why? Because opportunities to get to the Super Bowl are rare. Many players never get there. Half the teams in the NFL have never won a Super Bowl. Eleven teams account for 35 of the 41 titles. Approximately 18 percent of the league's teams haven't even played in the game.

Dan Marino lost in the big game in his rookie year, and then never got back...in 17 seasons. Linebacker Clay Matthews played for 19 seasons and never made it. Neither did quarterback Vinny Testaverde in his 21 seasons.

As Ron Jaworski is fond of noting - winning in the NFL is hard.

It's why so many of these players play hurt. They believe they give their team the best chance of winning.

Which brings us to LaDainian Tomlinson.

Tomlinson is catching a lot of flack for being on the sideline while his team put up field goal after field goal in Sunday's match-up with the Patriots. He might be as injured as he is now claiming, however, that doesn't mean he doesn't deserve to be called out by the former players that are now part of the entertainment machine that is sports journalism (and when your toughness is questioned by Deion Sanders...well that's just sad).

Tomlinson is defending himself, saying he was no better than 50 percent and that he felt that the healthy duo of Michael Turner and Darren Sproles gave the Chargers the best chance to win. He can defend himself in this manner all he wants - but he dug himself this hole. HE told the team doctors in the days leading up to the game that he was well enough to be taken off of the injury report. HE told the press that he was 90 percent in the days leading up to the game. So, either HE lied to the doctors, press, and San Diego fans in the days leading up to the game, or HE's lying now in order to deflect criticism.

Either way, he deserves to be questioned...deserves to take the hit, so to speak - whether for his toughness, or for unrealistically raising the expectations of the San Diego fans and teammates.

One thing's for sure - it appears that it would have taken being in a wheelchair or on crutches to keep his injured teammates off the field. And, hell, Rivers had [arthroscopic] knee surgery surgery six days before the game.

Tomlinson best get used to being criticized for this one, because it's not going to stop.

Much ado...and at least one answer

There's a lot being made of the Giants 9 game road winning streak going into Green Bay, and not to take anything away from the Giants who have been road warriors this season, but the Packers haven't been slouches at home, going into this game with an 8-1 record at Lambeau this season.

How about this statistic for home field advantage - the Patriots have won 13 straight at the Razor, last losing to the Jets over 14 months ago. Also, the team is undefeated in Championship games at Foxborough, and undefeated in post-season games held in Massachusetts in sub-freezing temperatures since Bill Belichick took over the team.

The hosting teams have four Super Bowl rings in five appearances and are 6-2 in this round of the playoffs, the second loss was by Tom Brady in last season's match-up in Indianapolis. Brady is 3-0 in championship games held in Foxborough.

As for the answer...

Teresa posed a question to me - has the AFC East hosted the best and worst teams in the NFL before this season? Yes. The first time the East held the dubious distinction was in 1984 when the Dolphins and a rookie Dan Marino led the league with a 14-2 record while the Buffalo Bills brought up the rear with a 2-14 record.

All of this has inspired the final note...a note on futility -

The Arizona Cardinals, the longest active franchise in professional football - actually predating the league currently known NFL - hasn't won a championship since 1947. The team was founded in 1899 under the name the Morgan Athletic Club on the South Side of Chicago. It later became the Racine (Street) Cardinals, then the Chicago Cardinals, St. Louis Cardinals, Phoenix Cardinals, and finally the Arizona Cardinals.

In 108 years this team has won two championships, an average of one every 54 years. Their last title was 20 years before the Super Bowl.

This team did Chicagoans a favor by moving from the Windy City.

The teams that haven't even made it to the Super Bowl include the Browns, Cardinals, Lions, Saints, Texans and Jaguars. As far as opportunities - All but the Texans and Jaguars were in existence at the beginning of the Super Bowl Era (technically the Saints for the second). The Texans and the Jags have been around for, combined, less than 20 Super Bowls (the Jags first year was 1995, the Texans 2002).

Then there are those who have made it to the big game only to lose - Eagles, Bills, Vikings, Oilers/Titans, Bengals, Chargers, Falcons, Panthers, and Seahawks. Unless the Chargers can get past the Patriots tomorrow, it means that the winner of this Super Bowl will come from the pool of 16 winners of the 41 previous Super Bowls.

Of the three active teams in the playoffs that previously won, all are multiple winners - the Giants with two (1986, 1990), the Packers with three (1967, 1968, 1996), and the Patriots with three (2001, 2003, 2004). Other multiple winners include with five each - the Steelers, 49ers, and Cowboys; with three are the Raiders and Redskins; and with two are the Dolphins, Colts, and Broncos.

Of the 41 Super Bowls already played, 11 teams account for 35 of the titles - if you're wondering why the math is off, I think it's because of the whole affair between the Cleveland and Baltimore with the Browns' move and subsequent name change, however, I might just be missing a team in there.

Either way, it's likely that a franchise that has already won a Super Bowl will be getting fitted for another set of rings come February.

The wheat from the chaff

After a weekend that saw weather play a significant factor in several games for playoff bound teams, and a whole lot of wild-card eliminations, there are a number of things that can be taken from the games played from Thursday through yesterday. Sorry guys, but tonight's tilt has no bearing on the post-season (unless Chicago somehow upsets Minnesota - which I have a hard time seeing).

Here are some of my thoughts.

The Patriots (contenders) - They played a different type of game yesterday in the bad weather, pounding the Jets and winning the battles in the trenches. This led to a solid running game by the team that included 104 yards on 26 carries (4 yard per carry average) by the often maligned Laurence Maroney.

While good to see them move the ball on the ground, it was done against a moribund Jets rush defense that is currently ranked 30th in the league giving up an average of 141 yards per game. That average lowered with the Patriots 131 net yards from scrimmage yesterday. So, as nice as it was to see the Patriots pound the ball on the ground, they were still below what is average for this team to give up.

I like that Maroney runs hard, but I have to question his vision...or maybe it's just the coaching instructions he receives. I like that he seldom takes negative yards, but he often runs into clogged lanes when there are openings elsewhere. That won't cut it in the post-season against better run defenses than the Pats faced yesterday.

The Colts (contenders) - After struggling mightily after their mid-season loss to the Pats, Indy seems to have collected itself and managed to right the ship, clinching their division and the other AFC bye with their win over the Raiders (the best Jacksonville could do is tie their record, but Indy has the tie-breakers).

This Colts team appears built for bed weather better than team of the past, with a greater reliance on the run - although, it's not as if they lacked quality running backs in the past, it hasn't helped them in bad weather, and the Colts won't be playing in truly bad weather until they possibly rematch against the Patriots at Gillette.

Also, the fact that even depleted the Colts should have destroyed the Raiders should be some cause for concern.

The Jaguars (contenders) - They went to Pittsburgh and handed the Steelers their helmets in decidedly un-Jacksonvillian weather. This team could be very dangerous to anyone in the playoffs. If there was one team that could put together three road wins to get to Arizona, these are the guys.

The Steelers (pretenders) - See the Jaguars. Really, unless this team fixes what is ailing them, which seems to be the defense, they might be on the road to Cleveland or San Diego the first weekend of the playoffs, and they're not playing like a team that can win three in a row on the road. Hell, they've only won two of the six road games they have already played. Sure, the final two are against the Rams (3-11), and Ravens (4-10), but they lost on the road to the Jets (3-11), Cardinals (6-8), and Broncos (6-8).

The Chargers (pretenders) - Yes, they are playing better than they did early in the season, and yes they demolished the Lions 51-14, but they still have Norv Turner calling the shots and their only wins against winning teams were at home against Indy after they were beat up by New England, and at Tennessee. With the exception of their win against the Colts, they have lost to every other playoff contender they have faced - New England, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Jacksonville - by an average of 14 points per game.

The Browns (pretenders) - Cleveland is one of the great NFL stories this year. With games left against the Bengals and the 49ers, and the Steelers struggling, the Browns could go from worst to first with the potential of an 11 win season - a far cry from the 4-12 fourth place 2006 campaign (if Romeo Crennel isn't a coach of the year candidate, then I don't know how they're defining the award).

As great a story as this is for Cleveland, the fact remains that the Browns defense is 29th overall, and that doesn't get you far in the playoffs.

I'll deal with the NFC contenders/pretenders later in the week.

Other thoughts on the weekend -

Tony Romo's thumb injury and Terrell Owens suddenly playing like...well Terrell Owens (short arming, giving up on routes, not hustling on turnovers) could cost the Cowboys home-field in the playoffs, and any real hope at a Super Bowl berth.

Speaking of issues from Cowboys/Eagles - Brian Westbrook might have made one of the most heads up plays I have ever seen in the NFL when he decided to forgo the touchdown and sat down at the Cowboys one yard line with just over two minutes to play. The move allowed the Eagles to run out the clock. Had Westbrook run the ball in, the Cowboys would have gotten the ball back at the two minute warning, down by 11 - plenty of time to score and try an on-sides kick. It really was a thing of beauty.

Dick Jauron has done a great job with Buffalo this season, keeping the Bills in the playoff hunt until their loss to the Browns yesterday. Like Crennel, he will be a candidate for coach of the year.

After Brian Billick's spitting the bit against the formerly winless Dolphins, one has to wonder if the Ravens braintrust is regretting that extension they granted to Billick. To not try to punch it in and go for the win on the half-yard line against a team like the Dolphins who haven't stopped anyone all year is just unjustifiable.

NFL Questions: AFC West

Last season this division had three layers - San Diego, then you had both Denver and Kansas City on the same strata, and then somewhere far below...lower than low can go, you had Oakland...or at least their offense and their overall record. The odd thing about it all is that this division sported the best team during the regular season - the Chargers - and they fired their head coach - one of the winningest coaches in the history of the game, and replaced him with, historically, one of the worst (by account of record) active head coaches in the game. KC is in salary-cap Hell, Denver doesn't really know what it has at quarterback and has questions on defense, and just about everyone is trying to figure out what Al Davis has been thinking for the last three years.

But what is the key question for each of these franchises...

Denver Broncos - There are many questions, not the least of which revolves around the quarterback, additions and subtractions on the defense, and the development of their wide receiver corps. The obvious question is whether or not Jay Cutler shows the progress Mike Shanahan is hoping for, and it is probably the most important question given the luck that Shanahan has had in regards to developing a capable replacement for John Elway. The closest he has come has been working with a free-agent, not with any of his drafted signal-callers. If Cutler progresses the way Shanahan's previous picks at QB have, then the Broncos aren't just in for a long season - they're in for a long couple of seasons. If he can improve on last season, then the Broncos will likely make the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs - Are the Chiefs really committed to their youth movement? In a win now league, the Chiefs are going to be forced to pick between Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard. Huard was the best signal-caller that the Chiefs had last year, and likely gives the team the best chance they have to win this season, but it also means that Croyle is left holding the clipboard. Based on the little bit of playing time that Croyle got last season, it would be surprising if he actually beat out Huard for the starting spot - but seeing as he is supposed to be the future of the team, Huard might lose this contest before it starts through no fault of his own other than the fact that he wasn't the team's first day draft pick at quarterback last season.

Oakland Raiders - Is Jamarcus Russell more than a one game wonder? Throughout last season, it seemed that the consensus top pick at quarterback was Brady Quinn out of Notre Dame. Russell's name seldom...if ever...came up. He has a great bowl game, and suddenly he's the best quarterback in the draft. Other quarterbacks that this happened to include the likes of Ryan Leaf, Jim Druckenmiller, and Akili Smith. All those previous busts, like Russell, was considered a supremely talented physical specimen - if on occasion a bit rough. Russell might break the mold, but if he doesn't, then watch for the Raiders to continue wallowing in the Black Hole of Despair which they have done a fine job of building for themselves. Even if Russell is everything the Raiders are hoping him to be, it's still likely to be a long season, but the team should show improvement.

San Diego Chargers - Can Norv Turner finally produce winners in what is likely to be his last shot as a head coach? After winning a power struggle with the winningest active coach in the NFL, it is completely possible that personnel guru AJ Smith's future as a general manager rests on the shoulders of Norv Turner - the head coach with a career record of 58-82-1. Not a bet that I would have made. The logic behind his hiring was that Turner and his staff run the same playbook that Marty Shottenheimer (200-126-1, by the way) ran, and as such, it means that the players will not have to learn new assignments.

Great logic - except for the fact that Turner, as a head coach, doesn't use that playbook the
same way that Shottenheimer does, as evidenced by their records. Sure, this team is likely to make the playoffs this year - Smith has kept the core starters together, and the team doesn't have to learn a new playbook, but I'm guessing that we see this team backslide over the next couple of years. Norv could be that replacement that finally gets along with Smith - but I would be surprised seeing as no one has yet.

NFL Questions: AFC North

For the last couple of years this division was supposed to be a powerhouse on the verge - the Browns got defensive guru and Bill Belichick disciple Romeo Crennel to run the show and a collection of exciting young players, the Steelers and Ravens were models of consistency, and the Bengals were on the rise. With retirements, age, and other issues that have surfaced, it's now a division with a lot of questions...

Baltimore Ravens - Does Steve McNair have enough in the tank to get this team to the playoffs? Honestly, watching the way McNair ran down at the end of the season, I don't think the question is about Super Bowl chances - I don't think that can even be discussed with this team until they make the post season and McNair shows some life. None of the other questions about this team matter if McNair can't get the job done.

Cincinnati Bengals - There are so many questions here, mostly having to do with suspensions (see Odell Thurman, Chris Henry), but the team proved they could weather those distractions for at least one season, so it stands to reason that they could do it for another (although it could catch up to them). No, the big question here is whether or not they can stop the run.

Like the Indianapolis Colts last year, the Bengals gave up big yardage on the ground. Unlike the Colts, the Bengals couldn't overcome that - nor did they have the player that could come in, when healthy, and stop the run. If they can force teams into shoot-outs and take away the other team's ability to grind out a lead, this could be a big year for them. Otherwise, expect more of the same.

Cleveland Browns - So many questions, but of greatest significance to the Browns - Who's the leader? Charlie Frye, Brady Quinn? Whoever the brain-trust decides is the leader will go a long way to determining whether Romeo Crennel continues as a head coach, or if he returns to a coordinator roll. Either way, Crennel had best hope that the left tackle the team drafted is the dominant left-tackle they're projecting him to be. Otherwise, he better have the resumes ready.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Following their win in one of the worst Super Bowl games ever in regards to the quality of football played, the Steelers picked up where they left off - playing bad football. The first question that pops to mind is whether or not Big Ben can carry the load, but I think the important question is how does a veteran locker room respond when ownership passes on the player's choice for head coach? Steelers players, it was reported, were hoping that one of the incumbent coordinators with whom they were familiar would be offered the job. Instead, it went to Mike Tomlin - a relative youngster in his thirties with a penchant for the 4-3. The Steelers run a 3-4, have for years, and that's the type of personnel that Pittsburgh currently has.

Can they play his brand of football, and, more importantly, are they willing?

NFL Questions: AFC East

As we approach the NFL preseason, only a month away, each team is faced with major questions - but what is the major question faced by each team? The Angry Fan takes a look, starting with the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills - Can Anthony Thomas emerge as an every down back? Even in his best seasons in Chicago, the A-Train, the knock against Thomas was durability. Last season was the first time in Thomas' career that he played in 16 games, but he started only two. If Thomas is unable to fill the void created by the departure of Willis McGahee via trade, it will be a very long season for JP Losman, or whoever else is under center for the course of the year.

Miami Dolphins - What are they thinking in Miami? It's hard to fathom what is going on in Miami as the Dolphins are beginning to look more and more like the East Coast version of the Raiders. Sure, hiring Cam Cameron seemed like a good idea, but what about their other moves - they draft a glorified return man with ankle problems with their first pick, they trade their leading receiver to the division rival Patriots, they add a linebacker that might face league discipline for an off season assault, and they try to rectify last season's quarterback fiasco by replacing a rehabbing Duante Culpepper, with a fragile Trent Green who never seemed to be the same player when he returned from his concussion last season.

New England Patriots - Can Brady and the receivers gel by the first game of the season? With games against the Jets, Chargers, and Bengals over the first four weeks of the season, the Patriots defense will best be served by having an offense that can run the opposing defenses ragged. If the new receiving corps develops chemistry faster than last year's group, this team could easily head into Indianapolis with an 8-0 record. If it takes them some time to come together, the record could easily be 6-2 with those losses happening during the first four weeks of the season.

New York Jets - Can the Jets build off of last season? First year head coach Eric Mangini worked miracles in getting this team to play as greater than the sum of its parts, but can he work that magic again? The key will be whether or not they can get two straight healthy seasons out of quarterback Chad Pennington. If they can't, then the offense falls on the shoulders of the untested Kellen Clemens.

Doubting Thomas

After the initial "Jaws"-like feeding frenzy of NFL free-agency many of the pundits are declaring the 49ers and Patriots the early winners and a number of them are even saying that the Patriots signing of Adalius Thomas is going to put the Pats in the pole-position for the Super Bowl next year. I don't quite buy it.

The Patriots were thirty minutes away from the big game this year, and likely would have beaten the Bears in Miami (although I will grant that's not guaranteed). However, when you look at what happened to that flu-stricken defense (not an excuse considering pretty much the same defense stricken with the flu got the job done against the Steelers in the playoffs two seasons earlier) in the second half against the Colts, I find it hard to believe they were one player away. I suppose you could argue that a healthy Rodney Harrison and Thomas would amount to two impact starters that they were missing - but you have to play with what you've got.

Here's what the Pats have - the most coveted defender on the free agent market who came from a team whose best players have traditionally failed when they have moved on.

Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli are very good evaluators of talent, often finding value over the years in late round draft picks (Tom Brady), other team's cast-offs (Heath Evans, Antowain Smith, Rodney Harrison), and rookie free-agents (Randall Gay, Stephen Neal). Even so, they have been very erratic in the free-agent market. Yes, they acquired Harrison via free-agency and Mike Vrabel that way - but they also brought in Monty Beisel, Chad Brown and even traded for former Raven Duane Starks.

On paper - I love the additions. Kyle Brady can be a punishing blocker, Wes Welker reminds me of Troy Brown - only faster, and with the Pats committing to Laurence Maroney as the feature back, I think Sammy Morris is a good complimentary piece. Of course the additions of Welker and Morris are important because they also hurt a division rival.

I don't expect Thomas to be the force he was in Baltimore in much the same way that Rosevelt Colvin's roll differs now than the one he filled in Chicago. Thomas will still be an impact player - and be used in multi-faceted rolls, but I figure Belichick will sit down with his defensive coordinator this offseason to look at how they can really utilize someone like Thomas. He'll get his sacks and tackles - there just might not be as many.

This looks like a stronger free agent class than they have had in several years, but until they strap on the helmets in September looks don't mean a thing.

From a GM standpoint - the other teams in the division, who I believe all made good steps in regards to improving themselves (the Jets getting a legitimate backfield threat, Buffalo shoring up the offensive line, and the Dolphins hoarding draft picks while getting Joey Porter), those GMs can't be happy that the Patriots still hold six picks in the draft (including two first rounders) and are expecting two compensatory picks for free agents lost last year. Trading away one of those first rounders could easily result in the Patriots having ten picks in the upcoming draft and still leave them with a first round selection.

And really - the Patriots have made a living this decade out of selecting players outside of the first round - Brady (6th round, 2000), Stephen Gostkowski (4th, 2006), Jarvis Green (4th, 2002), Ellis Hobbs (3rd, 2005), Nick Kaczur (3rd, 2005), Dan Koppen (5th, 2003), Matt Light (2nd, 2001), Garrett Mills (4th, 2006), Ryan O'Callaghan (5th, 2006), Patrick Pass (7th, 2000), Asante Samuel (4th, 2003), James Sanders (4th, 2005), David Thomas (3rd, 2006), Eugene Wilson (2nd, 2003).

So...in the second round since 2000 the Pioli and Belichick have found a starting left tackle and starting safety. (2)
Third round - their second string tight end, a starting corner/kick returner, and a starting right tackle. (3)
Fourth round - kicker, rotational defensive end that could start on other teams, a back-up tight-end/fullback, franchise cornerback, and back-up safety. (5)
Fifth round - Back-up right tackle with the size and potential talent to start, starting center (2)
Sixth round - franchise quarterback (1)
Seventh round - fullback (1)

Fourteen players who are significant contributors - most starters, in the later rounds with most of the damage in the middle rounds.

T.O. - A Blogger's Best friend and other thoughts on the week

Ah, the idiot club-house cancer speaks again.

According to MSNBC Owens made the following comment to the Fort Worth newspaper, “I am just hoping his retirement brings promise to what the team has to offer,” Owens said. “This past year was a big letdown. On paper we were as good as anybody we played against every week. The end result didn’t show that. Our play was not indicative of what we could have done. What we should have done. Hopefully, the owner will hire a coach to take the team to the next level.”

Nice to see that the receiver that was thrown to as much as if not more than any in the league, and led the league in dropped passes has accepted culpability in his part in guaranteeing that the Cowboys had to be on the road for the playoffs. For the dim and the slow, yes, that was sarcasm.

While I often have blogged here about Parcells record without Belichick - which is about .500, I have to put this question out there - How many rings do you have T.O., because the last time I checked, Parcells has two?

I've said it before and I will say it again - Owens will never win a ring, he causes too many problems in the locker room and believes he answers to no one.

Here is a list of the Coaches and teams who have given up on him -

George Seifert/Steve Mariucci - 49ers
Andy Reid - Eagles
Bill Parcells - Cowboys (and if you don't believe that Owens factored into the decision to retire, then listen to the recent ESPN radio interview with Parcells's buddy Bobby Knight).
The Ravens (see Owens escape from San Fran)
The Patriots (more trouble than that team would put up with)
The Jets (putting together a team in the manner of the Patriots, Mangini will not deal with the distractions)

Those are just the ones that have made preferences known. I wouldn't be surprised if that number were much higher - and that also doesn't include teams like Arizona that wouldn't pony up the kind of money that Owens believes he deserves.

On to other tidbits -

Here is an article on Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl showing up at a Lady Vols game with some of his players in a show of support for coach Pat Summit in a game against the top ranked Duke team. On Pardon the Interuption Wilbon and Kornheiser debated the concept of whether or not it was appropriate for the Volunteers Men's Coach to be shirtless with a giant V painted on his chest so that he and his players could spell out "Vols."
The debate is ridiculous. Not only was it appropriate, but its the show of support and solidarity that more coaches should show their colleagues on the collegiate level, particularly in regards to women's sports that are often treated as the bastard step child by athletic directors.
I, for one, commend Pearl for such an unabashed and enthusiastic show of support for the Lady Vols.
Keep it up Pearl, women's athletics could use more fans like you.

Well Mike Nifong...it was a blast;


Best Stories in the NFL this season? For my money, and in no particular order...

The Saints run into the post-season giving the Gulf Coast something to root for.

Detroit receiver and former arena league and Rams defensive back Mike Furrey's success in his first full year as a receiver - 98 receptions, 1086 yards. Not bad for a guy playing on one of the worst teams in the league.

The returns from what could have been career ending injuries for Drew Brees (shoulder), Chad Pennington (shoulders), and Rodney Harrison (knee).

The season of rookie sixth round pick Marques Colston out of Hofstra. The youngster played like a veteran catching 70 balls for 1038 yards - and for my money, Rookie of the Year.

In spite of wearing my Patriot blue on my sleeve, Tony Dungy getting over the hump and into the big game. I find it hard to feel the same for Manning, just because the ad campaigns, while intended to paint him as "just one of the guys," come off as obnoxious - I'm sorry, but the only thing missing in the Sprint ad where he has 70's porn-mustache is the bad funk music while Peyton "The Hedgehog" Manning is talking. But I digress...

Mangini's miracle turnaround of a Jets team that many people thought would be the worst in the AFC East.

Jeff Garcia's run of success with the Eagles, showing that in the right system, he can still get it done.

Playoff picture remains unclear...

After a weekend where all but four games could have a serious impact on the playoff race not many answers abound. However, there do seem to be a few more questions. Lets take a quick look at the playoffs by what each team did...



Division leaders W-L Div. Conf.

1. BEARS — x 12-2 4-0 10-0 Clinched NFC North and number one seed in the NFC, yet opened a whole ohst of questions about their defense heading into the playoffs.

2. SAINTS — y 9-5 4-1 8-2 Backed into clinching the NFC South with the losses by Atlanta and Carolina. Also, with their own loss needs to win out to assure themselves of the second seed, or hope that Dallas drops at least one of the final two games.

3. COWBOYS — z 9-5 2-3 6-4 NFC East Leader, if they win next weekend then they sew up the division. A loss means that they need to rely on the Eagles loss if they want the division title (Philly has the tie-breakers).

4. SEAHAWKS 8-6 3-3 6-5 NFC West Leader that opened the door to San Francisco to win the division with the loss to the 49ers over the weekend. However, still could win the division at 8-8 as long as San Fran drops one of the remaining two games. Don’t expect things to get easy for the Seahawks with a tilt against the Chargers this weekend.

Wild-card teams W-L Div. Conf.

5. EAGLES 8-6 4-1 7-3 With the upcoming game against Dallas, this team controls its own destiny and has a legitimate shot at winning the division in spite of the personell losses suffered this season.

6. GIANTS 7-7 3-2 6-4 With their loss to Philly, this under-achieving bunch will need help to get in. If they falter, they’re finished.

Still alive W-L Div. Conf.
7. FALCONS 7-7 3-2 5-5 Which Michael Vick shows up with the season on the line is anybody's guess, however, this is not the player a team should be pinning its playoff hopes on.

8. VIKINGS 6-8 2-3 6-4 Likely done after their lack-luster effort against the Jets.

9. PACKERS 6-8 3-1 5-5 With games against a demoralized Vikings team in Lambeau, and a Bears team that will be resting its starters, the Packers could leapfrog the Vikings, Falcons and Giants for the final wild card slot.

10. 49ERS 6-8 3-2 5-6 With games against Arizona and at Denver with a rookie quarterback, the 49ers have to be thinking they still have a shot and should be playing hard this week. A win this week with a Seattle loss and that week 17 matchup in Denver should be quite a game.

11. PANTHERS 6-8 3-1 4-6 Also likely done after their no-show against the Steelers at home.

12. RAMS 6-8 2-4 4-6 After a strong start, St. Louis has slipped badly and is unlikely to pass anyone still ahead of them.

AFC PLAYOFF SEEDING

Division leaders W-L Div. Conf.

1. CHARGERS — y 12-2 5-1 10-2 One more win seals the number one seed and the advantages that go with it. Expect them to seal the deal against an erratic Seattle team this weekend.

2. RAVENS — y 11-3 4-1 8-2 With an injured Steve McNair and two teams, Pittsburgh and Buffalo making some late season noise, the Ravens will have to rely on their defense more than ever this year.

3. COLTS — y 11-3 3-2 8-2 On paper, match-ups against Houston and Miami might seem an easier road than that faced by either the Patriots or the Ravens, unfortunately for the Colts, Houston has often played them tough (in spite of how bad they are) and Miami’s defense should pose problems for the Colts offense

4. PATRIOTS 10-4 4-2 6-4 Facing off against Jacksonville and Tennessee, New England has an opportunity to show that they can beat teams that are potential post-season contenders and close out their division title.

Wild-card teams W-L Div. Conf.

5. BRONCOS 8-6 3-2 3-6 With two teams on the slate fighting for their playoff lives, Mike Shanahan is about to find out how ready Jay Cutler really is.

6. BENGALS 8-6 4-1 6-4 After blowing a golden opportunity to move up and solidify their playoff standing, Cincy has put themselves in a must win position in tough games against Denver and Pittsburgh.

Still alive W-L Div. Conf.

7. JAGUARS 8-6 2-4 5-5 With this team’s inconsistency, I give the Jets a better chance to make the post-season dance.

8. JETS 8-6 3-2 5-5 I’ve said it once, will say it again: with games against Miami and Oakland remaining this team could finish 10-6 and in the playoffs. However, with this field, they could finish with that record and be out of the playoffs as well.

9. BILLS 7-7 3-3 5-5 Making a good late season surge, but, like everyone else behind them, needs a lot of dominoes to fall in front of them in order to make the playoffs.

10. TITANS 7-7 4-2 4-6 The surging Titans have a chance to be very dangerous to the Patriots, but don’t count on them making the playoffs.

11. STEELERS 7-7 2-2 4-6 Realistically, the Steelers are unlikely to make it to the playoffs, but with games against the Bengals and Ravens, they certainly can impact seeding.

12. CHIEFS 7-7 3-2 3-7 With their weak conference record they need too much to fall the right way to get in. The run is over in KC.

13. DOLPHINS 6-8 1-4 3-7 After being shut out by the Bills, the ‘Phins are done. All this team has to play for are their jobs next year.

x=clinched home-field advantage throughout playoffs
y=clinched division title
z=clinched playoff spot

The potential playoff impact of Week 15

The brain trust at the NFL has to be overjoyed heading into tonight's game. This weekend features at least twelve games that could have a potential impact on the playoffs. And an argument can be made for the Browns-Ravens, and Dolphins-Bills games. If the Browns can pull the upset, and that's a big if, the game could have a direct impact on playoff seeding. While long shots, both the Bills and 'Phins have played themselves into position to possibly snag a wild-card, but that would be dependent on a lot of things going wrong for the teams ahead of them, and five teams crashing and burning in the last three games - very unlikely.
A month ago it looked like the Bears and Colts were locks for the top seeds in their respective conferences. To date, the Colts have fallen into a tie with Baltimore and behind the Chargers who are hoping to lock up the number seed. Chicago has secured one of the byes in the NFC, but could still find themselves on the road for the Championship game (if they can win their home game) depending on what happens over the next three weekends.

Right now, this is how things stand:

NFC
1. Chicago (11-2) Clinched NFC North
2. New Orleans (9-4) NFC South Leader
3. Dallas (8-5) NFC East Leader
4. Seattle (8-5) NFC West Leader
5. Atlanta (7-6) Wild Card
6. NY Giants (7-6) Wild Card
-----------------------
7. Philadelphia (7-6)
8. Minnesota (6-7)
9. Carolina (6-7)
10. St. Louis (5-8)
11. San Francisco (5-8)
12. Green Bay (5-8)

AFC
1. San Diego (11-2) Clinched AFC West
2. Baltimore (10-3) AFC Central Leader
3. Indianapolis (10-3) AFC South Leader
4. New England (9-4) AFC East Leader
5. Cincinnati (8-5) Wild Card
6. Jacksonville (8-5) Wild Card
-----------------------
7. Denver (7-6)
8. NY Jets (7-6)
9. Kansas City (7-6)
10. Miami (6-7)
11. Tenessee (6-7)
12. Buffalo (6-7)
13. Pittsburgh (6-7)

Currently 13 teams that are not in the playoffs are in position to potentially make it. This translates into a slate that could completely change the look of the playoffs between now and that first game in January. Let's list them in order of importance and impact (randomly attributed by me...deal with it)...

A quick look at the key games and some potential impact...

The Big Game

Cincinnati (8-5) at
Indianapolis (10-3)
Amazingly, the Colts have not managed to wrap up their division, and with the way their defense is playing the team is in danger of hosting only a first round game in the dome. If it weren't for a week 16 tilt against the lowly Texans, I would say that they could possibly be passed in the standings by a Jacksonville team that's beginning to get healthy.
Meanwhile, the NFL's loudest criminal contingent has begun to play their best football of the year in recent weeks and is cementing at the very least, a wild-card spot.
Look for the Bengals to be too much for a floundering Indy team.

The Undercard

Dallas (8-5) at
Atlanta (7-6)
If Dallas loses, they move into a tie for the division lead with the winner of NY-Philly, and are in second by virtue of tie-breakers. Dallas can still land a bye, but would have to move past a New Orleans team that has a weak schedule. Look for Dallas to move closer to locking up the NFC East against an Atlanta squad that's becoming unhealthy at the wrong time.
If, as expected, Atlanta loses, this opens up some serious fighting for the last wild-card spot in the NFC.

Philadelphia (7-6) at
New York Giants (7-6)
Whoever loses this one isn't done, but it certainly makes it harder. Depending on how the chips fall around the NFC, it's feasible that three playoff teams can come out of this division.
The winner here positions itself well for one of the wild-card slots, and possibly to take the division if Dallas falters down the stretch.

Pittsburgh (6-7) at
Carolina (6-7)
The Steelers' chances at the playoffs depend on too many other teams, but Carolina, with a win combined with an Atlanta loss and a loss from either the Giants or Eagles can put themselves right back in the thick of the wild-card hunt.

New York Jets (7-6) at
Minnesota (6-7)
With both teams only a game out of the wild-card, a win combined with one or two losses elsewhere could catapult one of these teams into the playoffs. A loss doesn't kill either, but with only two games to make up ground after this weekend, it might as well.

Denver (7-6) at
Arizona (4-9)
Arizona has a legitimate shot at playing spoiler to the of late struggling Broncos playoff hopes. Even if Denver wins, like the Jets, they will have to leap-frog at least one team ahead of them to get into the second season.

Jacksonville (8-5) at
Tennessee (6-7)
While the Titans have a shot at the playoffs, albeit a slim one, they have a better chance of upsetting the Jaguars bid at making some noise in the playoffs. With a resurgent Titans team, the Jags have a tougher game ahead of them than might have been thought as recently as a month ago.

Kansas City (7-6) at
San Diego (11-2)
San Diego is playing for homefield. Kansas is playing for their lives and the memory of Lamar Hunt. If they can't get it going for this game, then they're not going to get to the playoffs, it's do or die for the Chiefs right now.

Houston (4-9) at
New England (9-4)
If New England had destroyed Detroit, and at least put together a respectable showing on offense against Miami, this game wouldn't even make the list. However, this is a chance to see if the Patriots have made any progress in correcting the offensive issues (turnovers, completions) that will cause an ouster in the playoffs and have been plaguing the team this season.
Should they right the ship and win, they still have a shot at one of the byes, although they would have to leapfrog the Colts and Baltimore to do so. The way the Colts have been playing, that is possible...Baltimore is another story.

San Francisco (5-8) at
Seattle (8-5)
The fact that the 49ers with only 5 wins have not been mathmatically eliminated from the playoffs speaks volumes about the NFC. Seattle could also feasibly lose their remaining three games and win the division at 8-8.
As is, they're only one game behind New Orleans and still have a shot at the remaining bye in the NFC.

Washington (4-9) at
New Orleans (9-4)
With a win and losses by both Dallas and Seattle the Saints will all but lock up the second bye. Should they stumble here, while those teams win, it opens up a dogfight in the NFC over the final weeks of the season.

and

Tampa Bay (3-10) at
Chicago (11-2)
Simply put - if Chicago wins, they sew up homefield advantage through the post season. If they lose, they leave the door open to the Saints in regards to landing that home-field advantage through the championship season.

A Frustrating Weekend All Around

I'll start with the light fare before I get into my football rants.

The weighing in - Technically, tomorrow is the update, so I could drop some of the weight, but right now I am at 190.5. I'm disappointed that this weekend's Christmas party did me in. On Friday I was at 189.5. I'm going to have to be aggressive with my workouts and caloric intake, between now and Christmas (targeting 185 by the Holiday) because I will be at my parents for Christmas and whenever my family gets together it's like a food, beer and wine festival.

Onto the weekend.

So I will admit, New Orleans is for real, and at this point I would have to say they're the favorites in the NFC.

The Patriots -

Not that it mattered in the end, but the roughing the passer call on Vince Wilfork as he laid on the ground, face down, falling off his block, when Joey Harrington tripped over him, might have been the worst call I have ever seen.
The reason it didn't matter in the end is that whoever is calling the Patriots offensive plays was downright...well, offensive yesterday. Whether it was Bill Belichick or Josh McDaniels, by the second half, with the struggles that the offensive line was having in pass protection, it was inexcusable for the offense to be in any empty backfield sets.
That was akin to putting a target a raw steak on Brady's chest and thinking that the wild animals were going to sit placidly waiting to be fed the steak. No. The Miami defense came after him. I don't think that any of the empty backfield sets ended well for the Patriots yesterday.
Some numbers to consider in regards to the offensive play calling...
During the time Brady was in the game 25 passes were called and 24 runs.
However, when the Patriots approached mid-field, let's say between the 30's, 17 passes were called to 9 runs. Of those 17 drop-backs Brady completed 8 passes, 47 percent, for a net of 26 yards (a 3.25 yard average), was sacked twice and the team had two give-aways.
In that same area of the field 9 running plays were called with a net of 59 yards. An average of slightly better than 6.5 yards per carry.
In that territory running plays accounted for only 35 percent of the plays called.
I know that the idea is to stay conservative in the shadow of your own end zone, but when you're averaging more than double the yardage per carry than per pass and your franchise QB is taking a beating, play to what your offensive line is doing best - run blocking.
I fail to understand the insistence of playing the empty set when the Dolphins were putting three pass-rushers where there were only two blockers whenever the empty set was being run.

And to make matters worse - the Patriots had the opportunity to pull into a tie with the Colts due to the Colts being run on like a treadmill by the Jaguars.

Seattle should be embarrassed this morning. Like the Patriots, the Seahawks had a chance to step closer to sewing up the division with a win against a losing team and failed to seal the deal. At least the Patriots didn't lose to Arizona.

Scott Boras playing this game of chicken with D-Mat is comical. Boras has absolutely no leverage. If he walks away without getting D-Mat a deal, Matsuzaka returns to Japan for a year and Boras likely has burned his bridge into the Japanese market. D-Mat will file again next year to start this same process over and would be unlikely to do it with an agent that couldn't seal the deal the first time around.
His request for $15 million over 3 years for a pitcher unproven on the Major League level is insane as any team will factor in the bid paid to the Seibu Lions as part of the annual average salary for Matsuzaka. With the Sox $51 million bid (paid to the Lions only if the Sox reach a deal with Matsuzaka). In essence, Boras is saying his client is worth almost $30 million per year to the Red Sox.
If I'm the Sox, I stick to my guns and aim for a five year deal averaging between $6 million and $7 million with incentives and option years that could boost the contract at the tail end.
In the end the average for the team spent on the player is about $16 million per year rather than double that.
Of course, Boras's logic, I'm sure, is that none of that $51 million goes to the player, so it shouldn't count against the player's salary. Unfortunately for him, no team is going to agree with that.

And now for the AFC…

AFC West

Preseason picks 1. Broncos, 2. Chargers, 3. Chiefs, 4. Raiders

1. San Diego – Rivers has come as advertised in the pre-season. I have been impressed and surprised by both his poise and consistency…now if there were just a way to avoid “Marty-ball” come January.
2. Chiefs – With the problems at the beginning of the season on the offensive line, I didn’t think this team was a playoff contender (and they still might miss out). I was wrong.
2. Denver – Like the Redskins, but better. I expected this team to compete for a wild-card spot, but now I don’t think it’s going to happen. Maybe if Mike Shanahan went to Jay Cutler earlier, but not now.
4. Oakland – Better on defense than I expected, but a special sort of horrible on offense…so bad that front offices of other teams have doubts about taking on skill players like Randy Moss – often referred to as “unsalvageable.”

AFC South

Preseason picks 1. Colts, 2. Jaguars, 3. Titans, 4. Texans

1. Indianapolis – Beginning to show signs of wear with a narrow escape against the Bills, and losses to the Cowboys and the Titans all within a four game span.
2. Jacksonville – Too erratic to call a playoff contender. Could do it if they get on a roll, also could crash and burn in the last four games.
3. Tennessee – Could legitimately claw their way into the second spot in the division, though not into the playoffs.
4. Houston – This perennially underachieving team is only one game behind the surging Titans in the standings and three behind Jacksonville with only four left to play. It’s unlikely that this is the season they climb out of the South’s basement.

AFC North

Preseason picks 1. Bengals, 2. Steelers, 3. Ravens, 4. Browns

1. Baltimore – I honestly thought this was going to be a rebuilding year for the Ravens. Obviously, I was wrong.
2. Cincy – Possibly getting hot at the right time after sliding mid-season. Will likely have to compete with the Jets and Chiefs for two playoff spots (Denver and the Jags as well, IF those two can find that elusive winning formula on offense for the stretch run).
3. Pittsburgh – Statement is September: “IF Pittsburgh has to ride the arm of Roethlesburger all season, they might not even make the playoffs.” Guess who’s had to put the ball in the air more than any time in his professional career?
4. Ceveland – If they can get the middle of their offensive line back and healthy next year, could move to the middle of the pack. Only a game behind the Steelers with one to play against them, the Browns could move up in the division, causing the Steeltowners to go into that dreaded first-to-worst one season turn around.

AFC East

Preseason picks 1. Patriots, 2. Dolphins, 3. Bills, 4. Jets

1. New England – Still making too many mistakes right now to be considered a serious Super Bowl contender, but has time to straighten that out. Like the Ravens, are in position to fight for one of the first round byes but has to rely on other teams to make it happen.
2. New York – A solid year ahead of where I thought they would be this time of year. Could make some noise in the playoffs.
3. Buffalo – Locked in a battle to stay out of the basement. Still not sold on Losman, possibly the fourth best signal caller in the division.
3. Miami – Not going anywhere this year, but could spoil the Pats bid for a first-round bye.


Dropping the ball…literally

During the last three weeks the Patriots have turned the ball over more times than during any three game stretch under Bill Belichick. It has been ugly, sloppy, careless football. On top of the turnovers, there have been a number of times they have put the ball on the ground when they were lucky enough to recover themselves.

Not to take anything away from the defenses that the Patriots have been playing, but almost all of the Benjamin Watson related turnovers could have been avoided with better ball protection. That accounts for at least three turnovers (giving Chicago the benefit of the doubt on their first interception and leaving that as a turnover). Corey Dillon’s fumble against the Lions – avoidable. Going back to the Jets and Doug Gabriel – avoidable. Patrick Pass fumble? Avoidable. Just a small sampling here of the last four games, but that’s at least a turnover per game less.

If the Patriots don’t solve the turnover issue, they will likely be one and done in the playoffs, because in the AFC playoffs they won’t face a team with Rex Grossman at the helm.

Dropping the ball II

The NFL has seen fit to suspend Saints defensive tackle Hollis Thomas for testing positive for steroids. Both the Saints and an independent doctor have come to Thomas’s defense in regards to the issue stating that the positive test was due to a change in his asthma medication necessitated by the climate change from Philly to the Bayou, but Thomas is still to serve a suspension.

I am normally a vocal proponent of the league’s steroid testing policy (see my blog entry regarding Shawn Merriman), but this is a case where I think, if the man really has a history of asthma, then I think this either needs to be revisited now, or, if agreements prevent it, then when the league and the players have a chance to discuss the collective bargaining agreement.

The league is likely thinking that this is opening the door to a whole new excuse that will allow legions of players to cheat the system. I think as long as proof of a history exists, they have a way around that.

Dropping the ball III

I’m going to ask around, but it seems to me that with the advent of officiating teams that stay together for the course of the season that officiating has gotten worse. I feel like the number of questionable calls I have seen this year has been mind bogglingly high. For every blatantly bad call I’ve seen go against the Pats, I could probably point out one that has gone against an opponent, or a team in another game.

These haven’t been the five yard, oh well variety either. Some of them have had potentially game changing implications.

I will, however, use two calls against the Pats as an example. Against Chicago the Patriots were called for two long pass interference calls. Both calls came on plays where the defensive backs both had position on the receiver and were playing the ball. In fact, on at least one of the plays, the receiver appeared to be trying to turn the defensive back (the wonder of TiVo…I did indeed replay these plays several times to make sure I could see what the refs did). As I said, I’ve seen others go against other teams, those are just two of the more glaring examples I could think of.

I would love to get some feedback on that last observation.

There's been a lot of talk

Today about the luck the Patriots had getting away with a win yesterday.

It was not pretty.

In fact, it was pretty ugly...well, at least on the offensive side of the ball.

The Patriots offense coughed up the ball five times. Three times on four fumbles and twice on interceptions, only one of which was Brady's fault.
Corey Dillon has now turned the ball over twice in two weeks and yesterday two of the turnovers started in the hands of Watson, so I really think it's time Doug Gabriel gets out of Belichick's doghouse.

The lone turnover that was Brady's fault was a pass thrown high and slightly behind Troy Brown on an attempt where Brady had enough time to finish the New York Times Sunday Crossword puzzle. After a solid five or six seconds surveying the field, Brady finally threw the ball while under pressure - and as I said before - off target, resulting in a tipped ball and an interception.

The defense, while not exactly stout against the run (and noticeably weaker in the middle without Junior Seau), did what they needed to in order to win in spite of (and this is not something I will normally rant on, but this was particularly egregious), two of the worst pass interference calls I have seen and a weak defensive holding call that set up ten of Chicago's 13 points. On both pass interference calls the Patriots defensive player had better position on the ball than the receiver and was playing ball. On the first one, the receiver had even grabbed the defensive back and was pulling on his jersey. I would love to hear the conversation between Mike Perreira and this officiating crew this week.

Other thoughts on the weekend...

Watching the highlights of the Giants TEN MINUTE MELTDOWN, I couldn't help but think that the Giants season might well be done.
This is a team where the veterans aren't executing, and then blaming the coaching staff for their own inability to get the job done. It ain't pretty.
I think I liked Tiki Barber before he was full of himself. When Tom Coughlin arrived, the book on Barber was that he was an undersized running back, best suited to third down situations and prone to fumbling.
Before you start bitching and moaning about the way your coach uses you, you might want to remember how you were used before Coughlin started running the show in the Meadowlands, not to mention who helped you get over that fumbling issue.

Is there a better story in football right now than the Saints?

A brief reflection on preseason predictions...
The NFL's toughest division (according to the preseason), the NFC East, could have only one winning team at season's end. Currently Dallas is the cream of the crop with 7 wins, the Giants are imploding and could feasibly finish at 7-9 or 8-8. The Eagles will be lucky to finish out the string at 7-9 and the Redskins might get to 6 wins, although I think 5 is more likely.
If it all falls the way I'm guessing, Dallas will be 11-4, Giants at 7-9, Eagles at 6-10 and Skins at 5-11. If the Giants can eke out one more win than I think they have in them and get to .500 that could be enough to get into the post season in a conference that currently has five sub .500 teams only one game out of the playoffs. There is an outside chance that this could be the first season of a sub-.500 wild-card entrant.
The NFL's weakest division (according to the preseason prognostocators) was supposed to see the changing of the guard. Nick Saban was supposed to lead his Dolphins to the Super Bowl this year.
The Patriots are likely to reach the 12 win, possibly 13 win mark. The Jets are likely to make it to 10 wins...and could still miss the postseason. Miami is charging late again and looks like they will finish at 8-8 and Buffalo could feasibly have 7 wins by the end. If that happens, then the AFC East will have the winningest last place team in their division, likely finishing the season with a record that would put them ahead of the Steelers and Browns if they played in the North, the Titans and Texans if they played in the South, and the Raiders in the West.
I won't even speculate as to where they would finish in the NFC on the premise that if they played in the NFC full time, they'd probably have a better record overall (although they do seem to have the AFC South's number, beating Houston, Jacksonville and coming within a blown field goal of pulling the upset over Indianapolis).

I would like to see the Patriots use the injury to Seau as a rallying point. The man is a Hall-of-Famer and deserves the one reward he has been denied throughout his career - a Super Bowl ring. Win this one for 55 guys.

And in other news...

Am I the only Boston fan sick of the Clemens thing. Forget about signing Clemens - at this age he's not worth the special treatment, and we already went through the Rest Home Rotation last year with Schilling, Wells, and Wakefield at the top of the rotation. You've got the mentors in Schilling and Wakefield. Papelbon is going into the rotation. Get Daisuke Matsuzaka signed and have some of the youg guns fight it out for that last spot in the rotation.

Next week, the quarterly evaluation...