Conspicuously absent

My apologies for my recent absence. There were some recent electrical storms that have wreaked havoc with my Internet access here in Western Maryland. I am, however, back now...so, on with the NFC West (finally)...

Arizona Cardinals - Can Matt Leinart and the Cardinals offense progress and build off of last year? Last season Leinart showed flashes of why he was a top draft pick as a QB, often making something out of nothing behind a spotty offensive line. The team has the skill position players in place to make the jump to contender in a weak division, but has historically had issues at quarterback and along the line. If Leinart can stay upright and get the ball out to his big wide-outs, then they will have a chance every week.

St. Louis Rams - Can the front office get Marc Bulger in to camp in time to build off of last year's success? Last season, after several down seasons, the Rams challenged the Seahawks for the division title. Inconsistency plagued the team as they sometimes beat the tough opponents and struggled against the weak ones. However, the offense - led by Bulger and running back Stephen Jackson - clicked down the stretch. If either of those two cogs is not ready for the opener, then the Rams are starting the season with a handicap.

San Francisco 49ers - Can the revamped receiving corps have success? San Francisco made a quantum leap forward last year, showing life on offense. In order to bolster the roster, the 49ers brain-trust went out and got Darrell Jackson from the Seahawks and Ashley Lelie from Atlanta to revamp their receiver corps. If Jackson is healthy, he could still be a legitimate number one receiver. However, it should be a cause for concern that the Seahawks were willing to deal him within the division, and Lelie has been a bust his entire career. A receiver with number one sort of talent, Lelie has only occasionally shown the ability to live up to his potential.

Seattle Seahawks - Can they hold off the rest of the division? Last season the 9-7 Seahawks back-slid, barely finishing ahead of the 8-8 Rams and the 7-9 49ers one season after walking away with the division and going to the Super Bowl. There are a lot of ifs that need to be answered with this team in determining whether or not they can hold off the rest of the division - if Deion Branch can step it up and be a legitimate number one receiver in a system other than the Patriots (most scouts have him as the second receiver), if the revamped secondary can gel in training camp, if Shaun Alexander can fend off time and return to the form he had two seasons ago while avoiding injury. These are some of the questions the team needs to answer - and if the answers to any of these are "no," then it could be a very tough season for the team from the Emerald City.

NFL Questions: NFC East

Like I did with the AFC East, here I am taking a look at what is the major question facing each team in the NFC East. There are so many issues facing each of these teams, it was difficult to choose just one.

Dallas Cowboys - Oh, so many to choose here, and so many obvious ones...Tony Romo's development? T.O., AKA The Mouth That Roared? The Dallas O-line? New coaching staff? Ultimately, I think it all comes back to the offensive line. Can they do better than they did last year? If they can, they have a shot. If they can, then Romo has a chance to develop, Romo has a chance to get the ball to Terrell Owens and keep him happy, and Wade Phillips has a chance to see if his offense really works. Considering that the Cowboys' big off-season offensive acquisition was a left tackle that couldn't cut it on the offensive powerhouse that is the Arizona Cardinals, this might be a tall order.

New York Giants - Can Eli Manning become the player that the Giants need him to be? We could ask if Jeremy Shockey could ever become the player the Giants need him to be, but we already know he's not dedicated to the improvement of the team. But can Manning become consistent, can Manning become a leader, can Manning smack down the idiots when they open their mouths? It's unlikely that the Giants will see any improvement on last year if Manning can't be the guy that the players rally around. And if it's more of the same, expect Coach Coughlin to b e looking for a job come January.

Philadelphia Eagles - Can Donovan McNabb stay healthy for sixteen games? The only way that this happens is if Andy Reid learned his lesson last year when he called just about as many running plays as he did passing. In each of McNabb's injury plagued seasons, passing plays made up close to 70 percent of the calls for the Eagles offense. If Reid stays with what I call the McNabb ratio (70-30), Kevin Kolb needs to be ready for extended action. If Kolb is starting for the Eagles, they will struggle.

Washington Redskins - Did Dan Snyder finally get out of his own way? Lord only knows if that will even help. For the first time during his tenure as owner, Snyder has reigned in the need to win the Super Bowl during the off-season and avoided making the big splash. Last year he went out and signed Adam Archuletta, a hard hitting safety with mediocre cover skills, to play opposite of Sean Taylor...a hard hitting safety with mediocre coverage skills. Instead of complimentary pieces, the Redskins were concerned with getting the players with the biggest reputations that were available. Last season that resulted in a gaping hole in pass coverage in the middle of the field. Maybe, for the first time since Snyder took over, the team will show some growth due to the lower key effort.

Playoff picture remains unclear...

After a weekend where all but four games could have a serious impact on the playoff race not many answers abound. However, there do seem to be a few more questions. Lets take a quick look at the playoffs by what each team did...



Division leaders W-L Div. Conf.

1. BEARS — x 12-2 4-0 10-0 Clinched NFC North and number one seed in the NFC, yet opened a whole ohst of questions about their defense heading into the playoffs.

2. SAINTS — y 9-5 4-1 8-2 Backed into clinching the NFC South with the losses by Atlanta and Carolina. Also, with their own loss needs to win out to assure themselves of the second seed, or hope that Dallas drops at least one of the final two games.

3. COWBOYS — z 9-5 2-3 6-4 NFC East Leader, if they win next weekend then they sew up the division. A loss means that they need to rely on the Eagles loss if they want the division title (Philly has the tie-breakers).

4. SEAHAWKS 8-6 3-3 6-5 NFC West Leader that opened the door to San Francisco to win the division with the loss to the 49ers over the weekend. However, still could win the division at 8-8 as long as San Fran drops one of the remaining two games. Don’t expect things to get easy for the Seahawks with a tilt against the Chargers this weekend.

Wild-card teams W-L Div. Conf.

5. EAGLES 8-6 4-1 7-3 With the upcoming game against Dallas, this team controls its own destiny and has a legitimate shot at winning the division in spite of the personell losses suffered this season.

6. GIANTS 7-7 3-2 6-4 With their loss to Philly, this under-achieving bunch will need help to get in. If they falter, they’re finished.

Still alive W-L Div. Conf.
7. FALCONS 7-7 3-2 5-5 Which Michael Vick shows up with the season on the line is anybody's guess, however, this is not the player a team should be pinning its playoff hopes on.

8. VIKINGS 6-8 2-3 6-4 Likely done after their lack-luster effort against the Jets.

9. PACKERS 6-8 3-1 5-5 With games against a demoralized Vikings team in Lambeau, and a Bears team that will be resting its starters, the Packers could leapfrog the Vikings, Falcons and Giants for the final wild card slot.

10. 49ERS 6-8 3-2 5-6 With games against Arizona and at Denver with a rookie quarterback, the 49ers have to be thinking they still have a shot and should be playing hard this week. A win this week with a Seattle loss and that week 17 matchup in Denver should be quite a game.

11. PANTHERS 6-8 3-1 4-6 Also likely done after their no-show against the Steelers at home.

12. RAMS 6-8 2-4 4-6 After a strong start, St. Louis has slipped badly and is unlikely to pass anyone still ahead of them.

AFC PLAYOFF SEEDING

Division leaders W-L Div. Conf.

1. CHARGERS — y 12-2 5-1 10-2 One more win seals the number one seed and the advantages that go with it. Expect them to seal the deal against an erratic Seattle team this weekend.

2. RAVENS — y 11-3 4-1 8-2 With an injured Steve McNair and two teams, Pittsburgh and Buffalo making some late season noise, the Ravens will have to rely on their defense more than ever this year.

3. COLTS — y 11-3 3-2 8-2 On paper, match-ups against Houston and Miami might seem an easier road than that faced by either the Patriots or the Ravens, unfortunately for the Colts, Houston has often played them tough (in spite of how bad they are) and Miami’s defense should pose problems for the Colts offense

4. PATRIOTS 10-4 4-2 6-4 Facing off against Jacksonville and Tennessee, New England has an opportunity to show that they can beat teams that are potential post-season contenders and close out their division title.

Wild-card teams W-L Div. Conf.

5. BRONCOS 8-6 3-2 3-6 With two teams on the slate fighting for their playoff lives, Mike Shanahan is about to find out how ready Jay Cutler really is.

6. BENGALS 8-6 4-1 6-4 After blowing a golden opportunity to move up and solidify their playoff standing, Cincy has put themselves in a must win position in tough games against Denver and Pittsburgh.

Still alive W-L Div. Conf.

7. JAGUARS 8-6 2-4 5-5 With this team’s inconsistency, I give the Jets a better chance to make the post-season dance.

8. JETS 8-6 3-2 5-5 I’ve said it once, will say it again: with games against Miami and Oakland remaining this team could finish 10-6 and in the playoffs. However, with this field, they could finish with that record and be out of the playoffs as well.

9. BILLS 7-7 3-3 5-5 Making a good late season surge, but, like everyone else behind them, needs a lot of dominoes to fall in front of them in order to make the playoffs.

10. TITANS 7-7 4-2 4-6 The surging Titans have a chance to be very dangerous to the Patriots, but don’t count on them making the playoffs.

11. STEELERS 7-7 2-2 4-6 Realistically, the Steelers are unlikely to make it to the playoffs, but with games against the Bengals and Ravens, they certainly can impact seeding.

12. CHIEFS 7-7 3-2 3-7 With their weak conference record they need too much to fall the right way to get in. The run is over in KC.

13. DOLPHINS 6-8 1-4 3-7 After being shut out by the Bills, the ‘Phins are done. All this team has to play for are their jobs next year.

x=clinched home-field advantage throughout playoffs
y=clinched division title
z=clinched playoff spot

Parity rears its ugly head again...

With the salary cap the NFL wanted to create a system in which there were no true dynasties, no teams that would dominate the NFL for stretches like the Steelers and Dolphins did in the 70's and the 49ers did in the 80's, and, to a lesser extent, the Cowboys in the 90's. The corporate minds wanted to create an atmosphere where worst to first was not out of the question.
Last night the San Francisco 49ers (now 6-8) inched closer to making that resemble their story by ringing up 21 points on the now 8-6 Seahawks. If Seattle should lose their final two games (after last night's performance it's a distinct possibility), and the 'Niners win their last two, then the San Fran will have changed their fortunes...somewhat. They weren't last in the division last year, but they weren't far off of that. And an 8-8 record would launch them into the vast canyon of mediocrity that will be the four through six seeds of the NFC playoffs.

More on what has happened in regards to the dying dynasty later.

The potential playoff impact of Week 15

The brain trust at the NFL has to be overjoyed heading into tonight's game. This weekend features at least twelve games that could have a potential impact on the playoffs. And an argument can be made for the Browns-Ravens, and Dolphins-Bills games. If the Browns can pull the upset, and that's a big if, the game could have a direct impact on playoff seeding. While long shots, both the Bills and 'Phins have played themselves into position to possibly snag a wild-card, but that would be dependent on a lot of things going wrong for the teams ahead of them, and five teams crashing and burning in the last three games - very unlikely.
A month ago it looked like the Bears and Colts were locks for the top seeds in their respective conferences. To date, the Colts have fallen into a tie with Baltimore and behind the Chargers who are hoping to lock up the number seed. Chicago has secured one of the byes in the NFC, but could still find themselves on the road for the Championship game (if they can win their home game) depending on what happens over the next three weekends.

Right now, this is how things stand:

NFC
1. Chicago (11-2) Clinched NFC North
2. New Orleans (9-4) NFC South Leader
3. Dallas (8-5) NFC East Leader
4. Seattle (8-5) NFC West Leader
5. Atlanta (7-6) Wild Card
6. NY Giants (7-6) Wild Card
-----------------------
7. Philadelphia (7-6)
8. Minnesota (6-7)
9. Carolina (6-7)
10. St. Louis (5-8)
11. San Francisco (5-8)
12. Green Bay (5-8)

AFC
1. San Diego (11-2) Clinched AFC West
2. Baltimore (10-3) AFC Central Leader
3. Indianapolis (10-3) AFC South Leader
4. New England (9-4) AFC East Leader
5. Cincinnati (8-5) Wild Card
6. Jacksonville (8-5) Wild Card
-----------------------
7. Denver (7-6)
8. NY Jets (7-6)
9. Kansas City (7-6)
10. Miami (6-7)
11. Tenessee (6-7)
12. Buffalo (6-7)
13. Pittsburgh (6-7)

Currently 13 teams that are not in the playoffs are in position to potentially make it. This translates into a slate that could completely change the look of the playoffs between now and that first game in January. Let's list them in order of importance and impact (randomly attributed by me...deal with it)...

A quick look at the key games and some potential impact...

The Big Game

Cincinnati (8-5) at
Indianapolis (10-3)
Amazingly, the Colts have not managed to wrap up their division, and with the way their defense is playing the team is in danger of hosting only a first round game in the dome. If it weren't for a week 16 tilt against the lowly Texans, I would say that they could possibly be passed in the standings by a Jacksonville team that's beginning to get healthy.
Meanwhile, the NFL's loudest criminal contingent has begun to play their best football of the year in recent weeks and is cementing at the very least, a wild-card spot.
Look for the Bengals to be too much for a floundering Indy team.

The Undercard

Dallas (8-5) at
Atlanta (7-6)
If Dallas loses, they move into a tie for the division lead with the winner of NY-Philly, and are in second by virtue of tie-breakers. Dallas can still land a bye, but would have to move past a New Orleans team that has a weak schedule. Look for Dallas to move closer to locking up the NFC East against an Atlanta squad that's becoming unhealthy at the wrong time.
If, as expected, Atlanta loses, this opens up some serious fighting for the last wild-card spot in the NFC.

Philadelphia (7-6) at
New York Giants (7-6)
Whoever loses this one isn't done, but it certainly makes it harder. Depending on how the chips fall around the NFC, it's feasible that three playoff teams can come out of this division.
The winner here positions itself well for one of the wild-card slots, and possibly to take the division if Dallas falters down the stretch.

Pittsburgh (6-7) at
Carolina (6-7)
The Steelers' chances at the playoffs depend on too many other teams, but Carolina, with a win combined with an Atlanta loss and a loss from either the Giants or Eagles can put themselves right back in the thick of the wild-card hunt.

New York Jets (7-6) at
Minnesota (6-7)
With both teams only a game out of the wild-card, a win combined with one or two losses elsewhere could catapult one of these teams into the playoffs. A loss doesn't kill either, but with only two games to make up ground after this weekend, it might as well.

Denver (7-6) at
Arizona (4-9)
Arizona has a legitimate shot at playing spoiler to the of late struggling Broncos playoff hopes. Even if Denver wins, like the Jets, they will have to leap-frog at least one team ahead of them to get into the second season.

Jacksonville (8-5) at
Tennessee (6-7)
While the Titans have a shot at the playoffs, albeit a slim one, they have a better chance of upsetting the Jaguars bid at making some noise in the playoffs. With a resurgent Titans team, the Jags have a tougher game ahead of them than might have been thought as recently as a month ago.

Kansas City (7-6) at
San Diego (11-2)
San Diego is playing for homefield. Kansas is playing for their lives and the memory of Lamar Hunt. If they can't get it going for this game, then they're not going to get to the playoffs, it's do or die for the Chiefs right now.

Houston (4-9) at
New England (9-4)
If New England had destroyed Detroit, and at least put together a respectable showing on offense against Miami, this game wouldn't even make the list. However, this is a chance to see if the Patriots have made any progress in correcting the offensive issues (turnovers, completions) that will cause an ouster in the playoffs and have been plaguing the team this season.
Should they right the ship and win, they still have a shot at one of the byes, although they would have to leapfrog the Colts and Baltimore to do so. The way the Colts have been playing, that is possible...Baltimore is another story.

San Francisco (5-8) at
Seattle (8-5)
The fact that the 49ers with only 5 wins have not been mathmatically eliminated from the playoffs speaks volumes about the NFC. Seattle could also feasibly lose their remaining three games and win the division at 8-8.
As is, they're only one game behind New Orleans and still have a shot at the remaining bye in the NFC.

Washington (4-9) at
New Orleans (9-4)
With a win and losses by both Dallas and Seattle the Saints will all but lock up the second bye. Should they stumble here, while those teams win, it opens up a dogfight in the NFC over the final weeks of the season.

and

Tampa Bay (3-10) at
Chicago (11-2)
Simply put - if Chicago wins, they sew up homefield advantage through the post season. If they lose, they leave the door open to the Saints in regards to landing that home-field advantage through the championship season.

There's been a lot of talk

Today about the luck the Patriots had getting away with a win yesterday.

It was not pretty.

In fact, it was pretty ugly...well, at least on the offensive side of the ball.

The Patriots offense coughed up the ball five times. Three times on four fumbles and twice on interceptions, only one of which was Brady's fault.
Corey Dillon has now turned the ball over twice in two weeks and yesterday two of the turnovers started in the hands of Watson, so I really think it's time Doug Gabriel gets out of Belichick's doghouse.

The lone turnover that was Brady's fault was a pass thrown high and slightly behind Troy Brown on an attempt where Brady had enough time to finish the New York Times Sunday Crossword puzzle. After a solid five or six seconds surveying the field, Brady finally threw the ball while under pressure - and as I said before - off target, resulting in a tipped ball and an interception.

The defense, while not exactly stout against the run (and noticeably weaker in the middle without Junior Seau), did what they needed to in order to win in spite of (and this is not something I will normally rant on, but this was particularly egregious), two of the worst pass interference calls I have seen and a weak defensive holding call that set up ten of Chicago's 13 points. On both pass interference calls the Patriots defensive player had better position on the ball than the receiver and was playing ball. On the first one, the receiver had even grabbed the defensive back and was pulling on his jersey. I would love to hear the conversation between Mike Perreira and this officiating crew this week.

Other thoughts on the weekend...

Watching the highlights of the Giants TEN MINUTE MELTDOWN, I couldn't help but think that the Giants season might well be done.
This is a team where the veterans aren't executing, and then blaming the coaching staff for their own inability to get the job done. It ain't pretty.
I think I liked Tiki Barber before he was full of himself. When Tom Coughlin arrived, the book on Barber was that he was an undersized running back, best suited to third down situations and prone to fumbling.
Before you start bitching and moaning about the way your coach uses you, you might want to remember how you were used before Coughlin started running the show in the Meadowlands, not to mention who helped you get over that fumbling issue.

Is there a better story in football right now than the Saints?

A brief reflection on preseason predictions...
The NFL's toughest division (according to the preseason), the NFC East, could have only one winning team at season's end. Currently Dallas is the cream of the crop with 7 wins, the Giants are imploding and could feasibly finish at 7-9 or 8-8. The Eagles will be lucky to finish out the string at 7-9 and the Redskins might get to 6 wins, although I think 5 is more likely.
If it all falls the way I'm guessing, Dallas will be 11-4, Giants at 7-9, Eagles at 6-10 and Skins at 5-11. If the Giants can eke out one more win than I think they have in them and get to .500 that could be enough to get into the post season in a conference that currently has five sub .500 teams only one game out of the playoffs. There is an outside chance that this could be the first season of a sub-.500 wild-card entrant.
The NFL's weakest division (according to the preseason prognostocators) was supposed to see the changing of the guard. Nick Saban was supposed to lead his Dolphins to the Super Bowl this year.
The Patriots are likely to reach the 12 win, possibly 13 win mark. The Jets are likely to make it to 10 wins...and could still miss the postseason. Miami is charging late again and looks like they will finish at 8-8 and Buffalo could feasibly have 7 wins by the end. If that happens, then the AFC East will have the winningest last place team in their division, likely finishing the season with a record that would put them ahead of the Steelers and Browns if they played in the North, the Titans and Texans if they played in the South, and the Raiders in the West.
I won't even speculate as to where they would finish in the NFC on the premise that if they played in the NFC full time, they'd probably have a better record overall (although they do seem to have the AFC South's number, beating Houston, Jacksonville and coming within a blown field goal of pulling the upset over Indianapolis).

I would like to see the Patriots use the injury to Seau as a rallying point. The man is a Hall-of-Famer and deserves the one reward he has been denied throughout his career - a Super Bowl ring. Win this one for 55 guys.

And in other news...

Am I the only Boston fan sick of the Clemens thing. Forget about signing Clemens - at this age he's not worth the special treatment, and we already went through the Rest Home Rotation last year with Schilling, Wells, and Wakefield at the top of the rotation. You've got the mentors in Schilling and Wakefield. Papelbon is going into the rotation. Get Daisuke Matsuzaka signed and have some of the youg guns fight it out for that last spot in the rotation.

Next week, the quarterly evaluation...