Gauging the Teams at the Half-way Mark

For many teams, the second quarter has been more of the same - and moving into the third quarter of the season, it's likely to remain that way.

Let's take a real brief look -
AFC East -
1. Patriots - Still showing too much inconsistency on offense with Brady occasionally going through periods where he's throwing bad balls. In spite of the points and yardage given up by the defense, they are who gave the team a chance to win against the Colts at the end.
2. Jets - Still have a legitimate shot at the post-season, and could have won against the Browns, had they at least played mistake free football. They don't have the horses to do anything in the playoffs should they get there. They also face stiff competition from the Jaguars, the Chiefs and the loser in the Chargers/Broncos slugfest. The Bengals are also still in the mix.
3. Bills - Looked good against a bad Green Bay team. Could end up getting passed by the Dolphins by the end of the season.
4. Dolphins - Strong showing against what is beginning to look like an overrated Bears team. Even overrated, the Bears should have destroyed this Dolphins team.

AFC South
1. Colts - When a team comes up with five turnovers, the margin of victory shouldn't be one touchdown. That said, the Colts are winning ugly, and often times, just barely, but that's how the Patriots did it in 2001. However, the Patriots had a much better defense in '01 than the Colts currently have, and if that's not straightened out, it could still mean the Colts' ouster in the playoffs.
2. Jaguars - The way this team has lost and to whom has to raise questions as to any chances this team has of walking away with the Lombardi Trophy
3. Texans - I don't even know how to begin gauging how far this team is from being any good. One week they get smoked by an average and inconsistent Dallas team, the next they beat the Jaguars 27-7. Will the real Houston Texans please stand up?
4. Titans - Another work in progress that's hard to gauge with the same Jeckyll and Hyde issues of fellow AFC South cellar-dweller Houston.

AFC North
1. Ravens - Improved on offense since Brian Billick took over the play calling, but I'm still not convinced that this offense is that good. Now that they've been at it for a couple of weeks, we'll see how defensive coordinators around the league adjust. That will be the real litmus test - if they can sustain their new-found success. That being said - unless the Bengals can get their heads out of their collective asses, no one is going to challenge Baltimore for the division title.
2. Bengals - Been looking more like the Bungles of yore lately. And a note for Chad Johnson - shut up and get open. The smack talk in good fun is fine if you're backing it up, but from a career numbers perspective you're in TO land, which means you talk a better game than you play. Worry about playing the game.
3. Browns - Just not very good right now, and no telling when they might figure out how to win a few more games.
4. Steelers - Too many bad mistakes from the quarterback position. Right now the Steelers braintrust needs to ask two very important questions; Did the motorcycle accident and the emergency surgery on Roethlisberger affect him so badly that he's not the player he once was? If so, they need to write off this season, and understand the team will not be going anywhere. And; Without the punishing running game of seasons past, is Big Ben a good enough quarterback to win more games with his arm? I think the answer to that is no. Even allowing for the health problems, The Steelers have struggled to win when the game was put on their young QB's arm (see the playoff game against the Patriots in 2004). When asked to put the ball in the air only about 20 to 25 times per game, he's a different player.

AFC West
1. Broncos - First the loss to the Colts, and then a struggling Pittsburgh squad gives them problems. With a game against the Chiefs and two against the Chargers coming up, the Broncos could feasibly fall to third in their division if they don't fix the weak spot in their secondary.
2. Chargers - The Chargers' season really rests on how they are able to weather the next month of the season with the four game suspension of Shawn Merriman. Additionally, it should be interesting to see if Merriman is the same player in the substance abuse program he was before being caught for steroid use.
3. Chiefs - The way the Chiefs have been playing lately, they don't have a single game in which the other team will be heavily favored. They could feasibly finish with more than ten wins, and have almost as much a shot at the division crown as the two teams ahead of them.
4. Raiders - While showing signs of life lately, this is still not a good team, and it's still a long, long way from being one.

Likely division winners - Patriots, Colts, Ravens, Chiefs
Wild Cards - Chargers, Broncos

So...is the AFC West the toughest division in the AFC right now?

NFC East
1. Giants - So far dominating the division dubbed by many sports-writers the "toughest division in the NFL" (not by me) at the beginning of the season in spite of some erratic play in the first quarter of the season.
2. Eagles - With the way the Eagles have played and with their remaining schedule, they could feasibly win a total of ten games, or win a total of 7. Nothing is a gimme right now for this team that seems unable to put together 60 minutes of solid football on any given Sunday.
3. Cowboys - Right now? Too much like the Eagles. They have to get rid of the stupid mistakes that are killing them.
4. Redskins - Too many holes and too many problems. Would have been better for them in the future to have lost over the weekend and forced Gibbs's hand in playing Jason Campbell.

NFC South
1. Saints - Unless they fall apart in the second half, this team should finish with at least ten wins, and possibly as many as twelve. Talk about reversing a culture of losing.
2. Falcons - At least three more losses on their schedule, and maybe more depending on how well other teams can attack Atlanta's offense. A loss to Detroit should be setting off alarms in the heads of Falcons fans right now.
3. Panthers - Unless they get on a roll now, they will be fighting with four other 4-4 teams for that last playoff spot. Right now they're too erratic, but, given John Fox's history, it's too early to count this team out.
4. Buccaneers - This team could potentially loose the string of remaining games. At least they're not the Cardinals.

NFC North
1. Bears - Still a very good team, but when an undefeated team's offense can't put points on the board against the Cardinals, and then gets waxed by a bad Dolphins team, you have to assume that the team isn't really the creme-de-la-creme of the NFC. With their recent play against the Dolphins, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team suffer a four game slide by losing all three games on the upcoming three-game road trip to the Northeast.
2. Vikings - Also struggling, also not as good as advertised. With a glaring hole in their defense exposed by the Patriots, are the Vikings going to have a legitimate shot at the playoffs? Hard to say. They're playing in the NFL's JV division and a lot of teams are jockeying for that last spot. With losses already to both Buffalo and New England, they could feasibly lose both upcoming games against Miami and the Jets, both of which have tough defenses. Couple that with games against Chicago, St. Louis and two games against an erratic Green Bay team, the Vikings could easily end up no better than .500 and possibly with a losing record on the season.
3. Packers - This is not a good team. They might go 8-8, they might go 6-10, but if Brett Favre thinks this team has a legitimate shot at the playoffs, then it will only be if an 8-8 team from the NFC gets in, and I don't think that's going to happen.
4. Lions - In a win now league Matt Millen's picks, after five years, are finally showing signs of coming around. That's not the formula to win in a salary-capped league. However, the success that is beginning to show on the field might be enough for the Fords to keep him around in spite of the fact that he should have been gone at least two years ago.

NFC West
1. Seahawks - They're not the same team without Hutchinson. They can't win without Alexander (and beating the Raiders doesn't count). And, like their main competition in the division, they are struggling to put distance between themselves and their rival in the division when the opportunity presents itself. If they had beaten either Minnesota or Kansas City, they would have at least a two game cushion going into the second half.
2. Rams - Playing better than a year ago, but flawed enough that only one of their wins is against a team with a winning record (Denver) and that happened in week one before teams had records. With three of their four losses to teams with winning records, they still have a shot at the playoffs with a schedule that only pits them against two winning teams in the second half.
3. 49ers - Improved, but they still have a draft or two to go before they're going to make any real noise. They could play spoiler late in the season with an upset, possibly against Seattle or Denver, to build on for next year.
4. Cardinals - Simply put, the worst team in football right now. That's saying a lot considering the state of the Raiders. The Cards might be the most talented one-win team around, but they're still a only a one-win team.

Likely division winners (I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong); Giants, Saints, Bears, and, going out on a limb, Rams.
Wildcards - Seahawks, Falcons

Some thoughts as we approach mid-season

Is it just me, or is anyone else surprised that the Redskins didn't find a way to lose on their bye weekend?

Haven't we heard the, "Peyton Manning is playing the best football of his career," mantra almost every season since he was co-MVP with Steve McNair?

Why is everybody so convinced that Manning will retire with a Super Bowl ring when Dan Marino, who at least made it to a Super Bowl (with fewer offensive weapons then Manning has had) never won a ring? I will concede that Manning is a supremely talented quarterback, but until I see him really dominate in the post season against a team running a 3-4 defense, I'm going to remain convinced that he will be the second coming of Marino - the best quarterback of his era to never win the big prize.

Hey, Shawn Merriman - take a look at Guillermo Mota, see if you learn anything. Nobody believes the "tainted supplement, I didn't know" defense.

St. Louis - when you have an injured Seattle team on the ropes at home and you have a chance to seal the deal, you can't let them get into feild goal range. This is why you could end up sitting at home in January.

Does anyone else see Pacman Jones as that kid in the lab experiment who's told to find the door with the candy behind it, but insists on repeatedly trying to open the knob attached to the electrodes? How was he not drafted by the Bengals? Everytime this kid goes to a club, he gets busted for assault.
It's admirable that teammate Vince Young has come to his defense, but trouble is not following this kid around. Jones has a history, because he actively puts himself in a position to get in trouble. This is the second incident involving spitting at a club.
I understand clubbing is what he likes to do to unwind - but it doesn't appear to actually unwind him. If he had an inkling of maturity and truly understood that his extracurricular activities are interfering with any subsequent contract he may be offered, the kid would find a hobby and stay out of the clubs.
Right now he has to qualify as one of the big first-round draft busts in the last couple of years. Nobody drafts a punt returner in the first round unless they can have an impact as a starter elsewhere.

File this one under "he's the Steinbrenner of the NFL...just not as competent."

Dan Snyder just doesn't get it...at least football. He understands marketing perfectly. How does a team that has been as consistently bad as the Redskins have over the last decade become the most valuable team in the NFL? By winning the Super Bowl during the offseason.
By overpaying for the top-impact free-agents he convinces the fans that he's committed to winning. It doesn't matter if the player doesn't fit the system, or doesn't complement the other players' style of play (see Adam Archuletta and TJ Duckett). Sometimes they give up draft picks for players that languish on the bench (once again, see Duckett).
In this day and age, a third round draft pick is often a contributing player in his rookie season, and, as such, a valuable commodity.
He also goes out and signs big name coaches to assistant contracts that don't necessarily fit the player personnel (see Al Saunders and the 700 page playbook).
These big signings have little to no impact, but they allow the fan base to believe something is being done (albeit briefly - the feeling seems to go away after a few regular season games), and gives them the offseason belief that this will be the year.
Unfortunately, expectations were raised this year because of the year-ending winning streak that propelled the team into the playoffs. They did that by playing Joe Gibbs-style football. Al Saunders does not play Joe Gibbs-style football.

Stick a fork in the Steelers. They would be better off with Batch starting - he's more accustomed to winning games without the benefit of a punishing runner like Jerome Bettis. Ben Roethlisberger is just not that good a quarterback if he has to put the ball up 30 to 40 times per game.

Game O'DaYear

This past Sunday's game against the Vikings was supposed to be "the Test."

It was supposed to be "close."

It was supposed to be a measuring stick for both teams.

The measuring stick was shattered across the collective rears of the Vikings. While Minnesota is taking a long look in the mirror this week, the Patriots sent a message to the rest of the league; After a year of injuries that would have devastated other teams, after a year in which we were ousted from the playoffs short of our goal, after a year in which some of our most important leaders on defense and the offensive line were lost for the season....we're back.
Charles Robinson wrote this week, "They weren't supposed to be an elite team. Not after losing one of their biggest locker room leaders in Willie McGinest, their top two wideouts in Deion Branch and David Givens, and yet another coach in former defensive coordinator in Eric Mangini." It has been the mantra of the press since the beginning of the 2003 season.
A reminder from Peter King - back then Tom Jackson of ESPN "looked straight into the camera and said the New England players hated coach Bill Belichick... after cutting [Lawyer] Milloy." Jackson claimed that Belichick had lost the locker room and that it was going to be a long season for the Patriots.

Since the 2001 Super Bowl, the Patriots that have left the team could make the core of a half-way decent team themselves - among them; Drew Bledsoe, Terry Glenn, Damien Woody, Mike Compton, Tom Ashworth, Milloy, Ty Law, David Patten, Antowain Smith, Ted Washington, Ted Johnson, Deion Branch, David Givens, Adam Vinatieri, Willie McGinnest, Keith Traylor, Jermaine Wiggins, Brian Cox, Joe Andruzzi and Doug Flutie as well as coaches Charlie Weiss, Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, Jeff Davidson, and Rob Ryan.
That means that since their first Super Bowl win, they have lost 80 percent of a starting line, a starting and back-up QB, two number one and two number two wide-outs, a potentially starting tight-end and a starting running back. On defense they have lost three linebackers and three linemen that could all start and half a starting defensive backfield. That doesn't even account for the the other important roll players that contribute on special teams like Sean Morrey.
Every year since 2001 the message from the press at the beginning of the season has been the same - the Patriots have lost too much to be a contender. This year it was Givens, Branch, McGinnest and Vinatieri.
With Branch and Givens - The myth: there's no way they can make up for the shortcomings in the passing game.
The reality - early in the season the team relied on its resurgent running game to win, now, Brady seems to be finding a comfort level with his new toys. Against the Jets they rang up 24 points with a bruising running game that gained 147 yards; against the Bengals they put 236 rushing yards in the books, almost as many as Cincy QB Carson Palmer threw for (245), while ringing up 38 points; in the first game of the season, the team gained 163 yards and got 2 points from the defense en route to a 19-17 win.
On Monday, Tom Brady and his wideouts lit up what was previously ranked as one of the league's top ten defenses to the tune of 372 yards passing and 31 points. Most of that came before the fourth quarter.
With McGinnest - The myth: Patriots are losing a locker room leader. They are losing chemistry and cohesion on that side of the line and they lack the depth at linebacker to compensate.
The reality - Only two teams have given up fewer points per game than the Patriots who are averaging a stingy 12.4 after the defense shut out the Vikings offense on Monday and only two teams are giving up fewer rushing yards per game (Pats - 78.3). They are tied for ninth in the league in interceptions, and most of them have come in the last couple of games.
With Vinatieri - The jury is still out on rookie kicker Stephen Gostkowski, but the Patriots were supposed to lose the close ones this year and right now, they're 1-0 in the close games. If Sunday night's game comes down to a field goal, it might be a nice measuring stick.

The big myth in the AFC East that the majority of the press bought into - with the addition of Duante Culpepper the Dolphins are ready to take the AFC East. The media typically pointed to Miami's end of the year win streak during which they defeated the Patriots. They either forgot, or for the purposes of supporting their position, conveniently leave out the fact that through most of the game, the Patriots played their third string quarter back (who nearly tied the game at the end), second string linemen on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball - and second stringers at other positions (hell, the second string quarterback drop-kicked for three)
So the truth was that the media was propping up a win last year against the division's number one team as proof of the advancement of the Dolphins. A win in which the Patriots back-ups played the Dolphins to what came down to one errant pass at the end of the game to send it into overtime.

What does all this mean for Sunday night against the Colts - possibly nothing. The Patriots have played one truly good offense - Cincinnati - and made it look bad. The Colts smoked the stingiest defense in the league (in regards to giving up points) last week when it seemed that Peyton Manning marched up and down the field at will against the Broncos. And they beat the Patriots last year, finally getting the monkey off their backs.
Why will Sunday night be different this year than last year? The Patriots will have their defensive leaders on the field this year. The Colts running game isn't as good as in years past. The Colts defense has slipped, becoming the worst rushing defense in the league, and the Patriots have established on more than one occassion this season that they can put points on the board in just about any manner imaginable.
Unlike last year's squad, this is a Patriots team that has found its identity and knows who it is - it is tough, it is resilient, and it is intelligent. They can beat you on the ground and in the air. right now, the Colts can beat you in the air - and when a team is one-dimensional like that, there is always a way to stop them. When a team is one-dimensional, I like the Patriots chances of finding a solution.

Looking at the pretenders and contenders at the quarter mark...

Teams around the NFL have begun to stake a claim to what they are hoping will be their identity for the rest of the season; the personality that will show who they really are. Are they resilient? How do they answer when faced with a loss? with adversity?
Ultimately, it all comes back to the question, "is the team a contender, or a pretender?" There are two levels of that question are they a contender for the division, and are they a contender for the Super Bowl? Just because a team is a legitimate contender for the East, North, South, or West in the AFC or NFC, it doesn't make them a legit contender for the Super Bowl. And I'm addressing who I think has a legitimate shot at the big prize based on the first quarter of the season.
Here it is, by conference and division, listed as they currently stand with my preseason prediction in parenthesis and notation of contender or pretender along with a brief reason...

NFC East
1) Eagles (2) - Pretender. Too reliant on a fragile, undersized running back in Westbrook to have a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl. Also, I still believe they have an over-rated secondary that can be taken advantage of.
2) Cowboys (1) - Contender. Admittedly, I could be wrong about these two teams, but I feel the Cowboys have a better defense and bring a more balanced attack on offense.
3) Redskins (4) - Pretender. Gave up 30 points to Jacksonville - not exactly an offensive powerhouse. Their secondary has too many issues with a D line that's not getting to the QB.
4) Giants (3) - Pretender. Has shown exactly the issues I mention in my preseason predictions and is unlikely to climb out of the hole they've already dug for themselves.

NFC South
1) Saints (4) - Pretender. Who knew. Evidently some of the personnel and coaching changes have worked out better than I expected, but I see this as an overachieving bunch right now. They may make the playoffs, but they're unlikely to make a lot of noise there.
2) Falcons (3) - Pretender. I've said it before, I'll say it again - No team has ever won the big game with a scrambling QB ala Vick. When it comes to playoff football, teams need to have more than one dimension on offense. Even the Ravens were able to get the ball downfield on occassion when they won it all.
3) Panthers (1) - Pretender. With their history of slow starts, I don't think anyone in Carolina is panicking. However, like with the Falcons, the Steve Smith injury revealed the Carolina offense as a one weapon team. One weapon is easily taken away by a good defense.
4) Buccaneers (2) - Pretender. No running game. No passing game. No defense. No chance.

NFC North
1) Bears (1) - Contender. With a strong defense and an improved offense (more improved than I expected), Chicago should be considered a legitimate contender for the Lombardi at the end of the season.
2) Vikings (2) - Pretender. While better than last year's squad, still too many holes on offense to make any real headway into the second season.
3) Packers (4 - Horrible offensive line translates to bad things for Brett Favre and the running game, not to mention a defense that stays on the field getting tired. AJ Hawk is going to age five years from the workload by the end of the season.
4) Lions (3) - Pretender. Mike Martz continues to demonstrate that he will try to force square pegs into round holes in order to make his offense work. Detroit and Green Bay will both be in the running for the number one pick overall at the end of the season with the Titans and the Raiders.

NFC West
1) Seahawks (1) - Pretender. Deion Branch is not the answer. The defections along the O-line have hurt and now their running back is too. If Shawn Alexander is out for a significant period, this division could go to the Rams.
2) Rams (2) - Pretender. This team improved as soon as they got rid of Martz who never had time for defense, and was a poor game manager, and it shows. Still too many problems on defense (the Mike Martz hangover?) to make a run at the title.
3) Cardinals (3) - Pretender. With their offensive line, did anyone really believe that Edgerin James was going to be a difference maker?
4) 49ers (4) - Pretender. This team is improved, and it shows, but they are not significantly improved.

Now for the AFC -
AFC West -
1) Broncos (1) - Pretender. While they always seem to get the best of the Patriots, and went deep in the playoffs last year, I have a hard time buying into Jake Plummer delivering in the clutch.
2) Chargers (2) - Pretender. One word; Martyball.
3) Chiefs (3) - Pretender. The once dominant offensive line is gone and so are the chances at a title until that problem is addressed.
4) Raiders (4) - Pretender. Arguably the worst team in the league and has a legitimate shot at going 0-16 on the season.

AFC South
1) Colts (1) - Pretender. Until I see this team perform under real pressure (ie; a playoff game), I can't, in good conscience, dub them a contender.
2) Jaguars (2) - Pretender. Not too far away, but something is still missing on offense. Could be a contender next year.
3) Texans (4) - Pretender. Kubiak will get this mess turned around, just not this year.
4) Titans (3) - Pretender. I don't even know where to start, but I'm beginning to think that slotting them into the third spot in my preseason predictions was generous.

AFC North
1) Ravens (3) - Contender. Baltimore looks like it may have found the formula again that catapulted them to a Super Bowl win over the Giants. However, I believe there are a number of teams in the AFC that are better now than the best AFC teams during the Ravens' Super Bowl run and I still have some doubts about the offense.
2) Bengals (1) - Pretender. Super Bowl teams don't give up rushing yards the way the Bengals do.
3) Steelers (2) - Contender. There's not much that I've seen from this team outside of week one that makes me think they can contend, but I can't rule out the Super Bowl champions this early in the season, nor can I rule out a team that got there the way they did last season.
4) Browns (4) - Pretender. Romeo still has a lot of work before this group is ready to contend. I think it's likely that Willie McGinnest will be retiring before this group wins anything.

AFC East
1) Patriots (1) - Contender. After a first couple of weeks where Brady looked shaky, the offense is beginning to come together, and the defense is starting to look like it did during the Super Bowl runs. The offense could still go South, but that would be out of character for a Belichick coached team.
2) Jets (4) - Pretender. Eric Mangini has this team seriously overachieving, but with their schedule, they could feasibly make it to mid-season and go into their bye with a 5-3 record and might have a legitimate shot at 10-6 if things fall their way.
3) Bills (3) - Pretender. If the chips fall in their favor, they might eke out eight wins, but I think they're looking at 7-9 with the schedule they face during the remainder of the season.
4) Dolphins (2) - Pretender. I got somewhat caught up in the preseason hype and I was wrong. This is a team that will not make the playoffs. This is a team, with all the problems on offense, that will be drafting in the top ten next year.

Time to stop blaming the receivers...

On Sunday night I saw a quarterback that consistently overthrew or shorthopped open receivers. Even during the early portion of the game when Brady completed something like ten of twelve passes, on at least three occassions he was bailed out by receivers who came back and made diving catches for balls that were underthrown - and almost a fourth (the incompletion to Graham).
While the running game wasn't there, the offensive line consistently gave Brady time to find open receivers, and he still made bad decisions, at least twice hitting defenders on the hands as he led receivers through their routes.
Had this been Bledsoe having the exact same game, the blame would have been laid at his feet - and other than Ben Coates and Troy Brown (who was generally pretty low on the totem pole in Bledsoe's day) what starting receiver tandem did he ever have for more time than Brady had with Branch and Givens.
Brady has now played like this through three games. The oft injured Terry Glenn? Brisby who started...what two, maybe three season before having serious injury issues himself? I remember a cast of immortals such as Ray Crittenden, Michael Timpson, Shawn Jefferson...none of which Bledsoe had more than three seasons with, and all with whom he was expected to produce results immediately.
I love Brady, think he's a great quarterback, but when I watch the tapes this year, so far, it's beginning to look like the problem is Brady.
He missed Watson in the deep seam, overthrowing him by a good 15 yards, he missed Brown by a solid half step down field when Brown had beaten the coverage. He skipped the ball to open receivers on a number of occasssions, including two to Watson, one to Graham, and his first attempt to Gabriel on an out pattern.
The knock against Caldwell was that he dropped passes in San Diego - I haven't seen enough passess hit him on the hands to say that Caldwell is the problem. I've seen Gabriel open several times with the ball not making it to him. In the first week I saw Brady throw balls into the raised hands of the defensive line again and again.
Personally, I have no idea what his receivers can do - through his first two games Brady has completed 50 percent of his passes, in his third he completed 60 percent, only by the grace of some great play by the maligned receivers and tight ends that dove back to balls that otherwise would have short hopped (the first reception by Watson along the sideline).
I love watching Brady play, but right now the quality of the receivers is being used as an excuse by alot of people (Mike Felger at the Boston Herald is right now the biggest fan-boy of this excuse), but I seem to remember until Terry Glenn came along, Bledsoe was always expected to produce with new sets of wideouts every couple of years.
First year - Crittenden and Timpson.
By year three I believe it was Crittenden and Brisby, four, Brisby and Glenn
By six Glenn and Jefferson - and both Glenn and Brisby consistently had injury problems. All I'm saying is before I start leveling problems at the receivers, I need to see Brady hitting them on the hands with some consistency.
Sunday I saw a quarterback that looked like he didn't want to be there and he played like it. The only time he seemed fired up was over some of the bad calls made by the zebras.
At this point, it's time to stop pointing fingers at the receivers.

So I'm rewatching

last weekend's Pats-Bills game on NFL Replay and watching the way Maroney runs. If this guy keeps running like this - shifty, putting his head down to punish the defender before he goes down, or rather than going out of bounds...if he does this over the long haul, somebady will begin comparing him to Walter Payton. A little early for that yet - but his second run of the day he finished off like Sweetness.
This kid is going to be fun to watch.

SI.com - Writers - E.M. Swift: Smoking gun may be catching up with Lance - Tuesday September 12, 2006 12:27PM

SI.com - Writers - E.M. Swift: Smoking gun may be catching up with Lance - Tuesday September 12, 2006 12:27PM

So, as I've said before, I hope that history shows Lance Armstrong to be clean. However, the more people in the sport that come forward to talk, the less likely it looks that Armstrong was the paragon of virtue he claimed to be, and more like the vindictive cheater that Greg LeMond has said he is.
Particularly damning is the part about Frankie Andreu, Armstrong's domestique in his early tours. That, combined with the information about steroids and testicular cancer, unfortunately, has a strong ring of truth.
I think we're way beyond paraphrasing the great Bernard Malamud with, "say it ain't so Lance, say it ain't so."

NFL.com's Pat Kirwan hits the nail on the head with Deion Branch

Season predictions for the rest of the NFL

So, I had intended to get this post on-line over the weekend, but got caught up painting some of the rooms of the house with the wife and kid out - plus the whole Deion Branch thing distracted me a bit, but more on that later. I wanted to make sure that I got the rest of my season predictions up before kickoff tonight, so, without further ado...

As promised - The NFC North and then the rest of the NFL

NFC North - Not to knock Chicago, but this division is going to the Bears by default, isn't it. I mean, really, who else is there? Green Bay? Detroit? Minnesota?...I think not. The fabled "Black and Blue division" is now largely the "I'll be singin' the blues" division

1st - The Bears will take this division with around ten wins, although they could probably do it with eight considering the talent in the division.
2nd - I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Vikings will find a way to be near .500, which I think is all a team needs to beat out -
3rd - Lions. If this Matt Millen is still the Lions GM after this season, I need to talk to the Ford family about a job with that company because it will officially be the hardest company to get fired from....well that, and president of the United States. That being said, I like what rookie head coach Rod Marinelli in the preseason and I liked cutting first round bust WR Charles Rogers.
4th - The Packers - Green Bay fans, I think it's time to polish the dust off the Magic Man and bring Don Majkowski back. Really, he can't be any worse under center than Favre has been the last couple of years.

NFC South - Along with the NFC East, the most likely division to produce more than one playoff team in the NFC with playoff hopefuls among three of the four candidates. My thoughts...this is the toughest division in the NFC, and maybe in football.

1st - Panthers - I think this division is going to come down to a dogfight between the Panthers and the Buccaneers, possibly with the division still up for grabs on the last day of the regular season. That being said, I wouldn't rule the Bucs out of the top position in the South.
2nd - Take a wild guess. The only reason why I gave the nod to Carolina over the Bucs is that I have more faith in Jake Delhomme to win in a shoot-out than I do in Chris Simms. Given another season of progress and maybe I call the two a toss-up.
3rd - Falcons - While think they have a legit shot at the playoffs and could win the division, I think that they're long-odds for the division with a grocery list of issues which include having the most overrated QB in the sport (who gave up on the team late last season - that stays with players), a receiving corps that was considered bolstered by the addition of...wait for it...Ashley Lelie, and an undersized defense playing in a very physical conference. Also, it's not exactly a vote of confidence in your starter when you're offered a first rounder in the off-season for your second string QB and you turn it down.
4th - Ain'ts - This team has a very outside chance at competing, but is more likely to be in a rebuilding mode. The new braintrust purged players perceived as problems and upgraded their offensive backfield with a new QB and a new addition to the running backs. That being said, this is a team that has a chance to have an unprecedented homefield advantage with many in New Orleans looking at the Saints as the distraction the city needs from the turmoil it continues to suffer. Unfortunately, that emotion I think will only carry them so far.

NFC West - Welcome to the junior varsity circuit. Seattle will probably remain pretty good, and avoid the curse of the Super Bowl loser missing the playoffs the following season, but that may be as much due to the fact that there is no one else in the division that is a lock to break even.

1st - Seahawks - In spite of some changes to the offensive line, this is a team that is still head and shoulders above the rest of its division, I'm just not convinced they will make the Super Bowl if they have to have healthy competition from the likes of the Panthers, Bucs, or even Dallas in the playoffs.
2nd - Rams - I think they'll be improved and that Scott Linehan will have them playing better than Martz did, I just think they're still a solid year away from returning to playoff contention.
3rd - Cardinals - For the two or three of you out there that actually check my blog now and then, you may remember that I thought highly of the Cards last year. I won't make that mistake again. They've got great talent at most of the skill positions - WR, RB. But they will either have an injury prone retread at QB, or a rookie, starting behind a suspect O-line. Edgerin James is not in for a good year.
4th - 49ers - I grew up when premier playoff games featured Lawrence Taylor led defenses lining up across from Joe Montana led offenses. Let's just say that the Niners still have a very long road ahead of them in order to return to anything even resembling those glory years...like, say, a winning record.

Wild Cards - Bucs and Eagles

NFC Champ - Cowboys

And now the AFC -

AFC West - This is an easy call. Denver. The other two legit contenders went through changes in the offseason that could legitimately impact their playoff chances, and the Raiders are just the Raiders. Lately they've been to their division what Detroit has been to the NFC North.

1st - Broncos - Shanahan, as little as I like him, or his team, is consistent. Year in and year out, he fields a contender in spite of castoffs like Jake Plummer in key positions. Plus, with talent levels dropping around the division, the team doesn't need to be as good as it's been in the past.
2nd - Chargers - While Rivers has looked good under center in the preseason, I'm not convinced he's going to do that for sixteen games in his first full season as the starting signall caller.
3rd - Chiefs - This is a team that is aging at all the skill positions except for starting tailback where they still have relative youngster Larry Johnson. Johnson will run with a chip on his shoulder, but he will be behind a very different line from last year which will be missing key components in clearing out the way for the running game. In spite of his hard running style, I don't see Johnson duplicating the averages per carry and game that he demonstrated last year.
4th - Raiders - Art Shell is not the answer. Aaron Brooks is not the answer. Hell, Jeff George isn't even a piece of the puzzle. For all his business accumen and early success as a head coach, Al Davis seems to have lost track of how to put together a successful team on the field.

AFC South - This division is like clockwork - Indy, then Jacksonville, followed by Tennessee then Texas. This might have been the easiest one to call.

1st - Colts - Peyton and crew will have yet another chance to implode in January. I'm sure they will take full advantage in their disturbingly Pavlovian way.
2nd - Jaguars - Still a piece missing, but they play hard-nosed football and should be good for a playoff push for the next couple of years.
3rd - Titans - Too much turmoil at too many positions to contend.
4th - Texans - might actually challenge to get out out of the basement this season. Have improved talent levels, and has a coach that might get something out of an underachieving bunch.

AFC North - Maybe the toughest division in the AFC right now with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati as legitimate contenders and an improving Browns squad. However, there are some big "ifs" associated with the division contenders.

1st - Bengals - IF Carson Palmer isn't a head case from the damaged knee.
2nd - Steelers - They could challenge for first IF Palmer isn't a head case and IF their running game doesn't have a drop-off from Jerome Bettis's retirement. IF Pittsburgh has to ride the arm of Roethlesburger all season, they might not even make the playoffs.
3rd - The toss-up. I believe it will be the Ravens. They might even make the playoff run interesting IF McNair has anything left in the tank. IF the Ravens ground game returns to the form it showed two years ago, McNair might not need to have that much left in the tank to push the Ravens to a wild card bid.
4th - Browns - IF the Browns didn't have so many off the wall problems in the preseason, they might be improved this year. IF the veteran signees on the defensive line play to their reputations rather than age, the defense has a shot to keep the Browns in a lot of games.

AFC East - To paraphrase Mark Twain, the news of the New England's demise has been greatly exagerated. Miami is improved over last season, however, signing Duante Culpepper does not make a team with as many holes as Miami had last season go from pretender to contender in one season.

1st - Patriots - Sure, no Branch, but in an offense where even the ball boy catches thirty passes in a season, I'm not that worried about who Tom Brady will throw to. He'll find whoever is open, whether it's Branch or Tony from the old neighborhood. All the pundits point to Miami's win streak at the end of the year when the 'Phins beat the Pats, but none of them seem to remember that the starting QB of that game was Cassel - his receivers included the inestimable Bam Childress, who was also the nickel corner in that game, and Doug Flutie drop kicked for three. In spite of going against what was primarily the team's second and third stringers, Miami was still fighting them off - with their own first stringers - at the very endof the game as Cassel came one bad pass away from sending the game into overtime.
2nd - Dolphins - I don't doubt that the Dolphins are much improved, but I don't see them as legitimately challenging for the AFC East crown this year. I'm guessing 8-8, or 9-7 and maybe a shot at a wild card spot if things fall right.
3rd - Bills - This was a hard call for me because, as much as I believe the Dolphins have improved and are only one season away from seriously challenging the Patriots for dominance in the division, I believe the Bills are still slipping, while things are getting better in the Meadowlands (albeit slowly). I don't think they have a good QB. They lack good receivers and their offensive line is poor. Add to that Dick Jauron, a somewhat middling coach, and you have a recipe for a potential basement dweller on your hands. Their defense will keep them in some games, but is likely to be fatigued by the end of the year.
4th - Jets - Let's face it, Mangini was brought in to clean up a mess, and it's likely to take more than a year to do it.

Wild cards - Jaguars and Dolphins

AFC Champion - Patriots

Will revisit this come playoff time. More on Branch later.

Honestly, I don't think I could have said it even as well...

BostonHerald.com - Herald Sports Columnists: It�s not about baseball anymore

Normally, I don't have an issue with Borges, but...

In dealing with Branch, Patriots have dropped the ball - The Boston Globe

I think he's dead wrong on a couple of points. Unfortunately, I also think that arbitrators have a tendency to favor players in these matters when the player has a tendency to compare apples to oranges in order to make a point, which Borges does here...to wit...

"The sides have been mum for the past week, since the team announced Branch would be given until today at 4 p.m. to work out a trade acceptable to New England at a pay level acceptable to Branch. The latter, several league sources said late last night, has been achieved, as the Patriots will learn today. As for the former, no one knows what that will take but Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli. If their trade demands are absurd (read that a first-round pick or more when Donte' Stallworth was worth only a fourth and a backup player, and Ashley Lelie cost basically a third-round pick and a short-yardage runner), what then happens to Branch?"

So, in light of the recent trades, Stallworth and Lelie are on the level of Reggie Wayne, whom Branch's agents compared him to in regards to seeking a new contract?
Stallworth's stat line for last year - 70 rec, 945 yrd, 13.5 avg, 7 TD, 43 long
Lelie's statistics last year - 42 rec, 770 yrd, 18.3 avg, 1 TD, 56 long

Wayne's stats - 83 rec, 1055 yrd, 12.7 avg, 5 TD, 66 long

Branch - 78 rec, 998 yrd, 12.8, 12.8 avg, 5 TD, 51 long.

Is he closer to Wayne than the other two - obviously, but there's a little issue he and his agent a refusing to concede - Wayne was on the verge of being an UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT when he signed the new deal - as in, no time left on his contract. You can't come to the negotiating table, say that you're worth one thing, and then get pissed off when the team tries to obtain that worth in a trade.

Writes Borge's later in the article, "...the Patriots have said by its actions is not worth the money paid Reggie Wayne, Randle El, or Givens. That being the case, how do you ask for a first-round pick for him?
If you do, you look disingenuous, not to mention cheap." Except Branch's side is the one trying to set the value being that of a first round pick - now he and his agent want to whine that the Pats did not enter this in good faith because they didn't feel they got the offer of Branch's worth - I'm having a hard time digesting this.

At one point Borge's talks about relying on the tight ends for offense, "why then does it seem that the loss of David Givens and the apparent business decision to let Branch sit out for 10 weeks or be traded away over money not strike people in New England as a bit, shall we say, troubling? Because they have a big tight end who can run? So do the Kansas City Chiefs, and what good has it done them?" This is troubling to me, bacause Borges is primarily a football guy, and this is what it has done for a team with consistently one of the WORST DEFENSES over the last five years - the number one offense in the NFL with an average of 387 yd/game (Pats last year, 7th at 352) KC also averaged a point and a half more per game than the Pats did. If they had the defense the Patriots have enjoyed over the last four or five seasons, we might be talking about the three rings the Chiefs have.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not a Branch-basher, I just think he and his agent have handled this horribly from the beginning.

Should he win his appeal and end up on the Jets or Seattle, I really don't see catching passes from Pennington (who's likely to spend more time on his back than actually throwing the ball due to the lack of running game), or Hasselbeck (Who's still not the best decision maker out there) as being a great career move if Branch is serious about winning championships. Brady is better, more accurate QB than either of them. The only bonus to going to Seattle, is that the rest of the division is in such disarray, that there's at least a legitimate chance at maintaining the status quo in regards to his personal stats.

Next up - the next chapter in my pre-season predictions.

From Hell to Hell in a Handbasket...

BostonHerald.com - Boston Red Sox: Sox: Lester has treatable form of lymphoma

A week ago the Red Sox season had gone to hell.

This week it's gone to hell in a handbasket and the crash and burn of the Red Sox seems somehow insignifigant after the news of heart problems for David Ortiz, and more importantly, the lymphoma that 22-year old Sox Southpaw John Lester has been diagnosed with.

The Sox still have a legitimate shot at the post season - and if they make a run, sure, I'm going to root - but somehow, if they don't make it, I won't be terribly crushed this year - it just doesn't seem that important.

It's about that time again...

On the verge of a new season of football, it is time for me to make my season predictions...

First - the NFC -

NFC East - I'm not convinced that this division is going to be the powerhouse that many of the other sports writers seem to believe it will be. I do think that the division is up for grabs, not because all the teams are powerful, but because all the teams are at about the same level of mediocrity - The Eagles don't seem to believe in a balanced offense, Eli Manning looks like he's picking up where he left off at the end of last season as opposed to the beginning of it, the Skins have looked pretty bad on both sides of the ball, and the TO thing already looks like it is in danger of blowing up in Dallas.

1st - Cowboys - Assuming Jerry Jones is going to be smart enough and cut his losses and release Terrible Owens before he becomes a problem for the whole team. Terry Glenn looked pretty much like a legitimate number one in the preseason contests I've seen, and Owens is more likely to become a bigger problem after today's fine.
2nd - Eagles - Honestly, in this division, I think I can fill in almost anyone here. I don't trust any team that throws the ball on average more than 70 percent of the time, but I haven't liked what I've seen from anyone else in the division this preseason.
3rd - Giants - With Eli Manning looking like he's backsliding and a defense not living up to the hype, this crew looks like it's not going to pick up where it left off last year.
4th - Redskins - I can't, in good conscience pick a team to win that would have trouble stopping any half-decent passing game. Hell, the Patriots don't even have a number one receiver and they still smoked the Skins 41-0.

Next - The NFC North...

Vindication in my defense of Drew Bledsoe

ESPN.com - NFL - Joyner: Brady among NFL's best decision makers

Recently I was surfing ESPN, and saw this headline (above). Being the Pats-geek that I am, I decided to take a look at what Joyner was writing. Curiously, based on his rating system - which he explains in detail in the article - the second best decision maker in the NFL last year was my boy Drew. It gave me a warm fuzzy.
Other Patriots fans can say what they like about Bledsoe standing in the pocket too long, patting the ball and whatnot, but to me, this is the man who, with Parcells resurrected the franchise when the Patriots had reached an all-time low. His toughness was often questioned even though he led the Patriots to come from behind victories with screws holding his index finger together on his throwing hand. It was questioned even when he continued to play against the 49ers with a separated shoulder.
While Bledsoe may have put his 2001 Super Bowl ring in the dresser drawer, he should display it proudly. Without him, the team doesn't beat the Steelers in the playoffs to make it to the big game.
For his career, Bledsoe has 43,477 yards passing in 188 games. He has a completed 57.3 % of his passes for a quarterback rating of 77.3 has one ring in two Super Bowl trips and he will not get into the Hall of Fame. Also, 244 TD's to 198 Int's.
To really put that into perspective, Brett Favre, who will get in, and in playing two seasons longer than Bledsoe, has racked up 53,615 yards in 225 games (37 more games, or almost two and a half seasons), 61.5 % completions, and an 86 rating. All better numbers, granted. But recently, Bledsoe has been the better QB. Last year Bledsoe tossed 23 TDs to 17 int's. Favre's numbers? 20 TD's to 29 int's.
However, let's look at the Hall and some of the field generals represented therein;

Terry Bradshaw, 27,989 yards in 168 games, 212 TDs/210 INTs, 51.9 % completions, 70.9 rating.

Dan Fouts, 43,040 yards in 181 games, 254 TD/242 INTs, 58.8 % completions, 80.2 rating.

Troy Aikman, 32,942 yards in 154 games, 165 TD/141 INTs, 61.5 % completions, 81.6 rating.

Joe Namath, 27,663 yards in 140 games, 173 TD/220 INTs 50.1 % completions, 65.6 rating.

Bob Greise, 25,092 yards in 161 games, 192 TD/172 INTs 56.2 % completions, 77.1 rating.

I think you get the picture. I could go on, posting Warren Moon's numbers and Sonny Jurgensen's as Bledsoe compares favorably to both. I guess my point is - either Bledsoe, at the very least, deserves consideration, or some of the above don't deserve to be enshrined.

Just my little cause.

The Angry Fan musings

Musings on recent events -

Peter Gammons, one of the big boys of baseball coverage, last I heard is still in the hospital following surgerey for a brain aneurism. Initial reports on June 27 (Boston Globe) said that he was expected to stay in intensive care for 10 to 12 days. I have seen no updates on his status, and with all due respect for familial privacy, I'd like to hear at least a "he's been moved from the ICU."
My best wishes go out to him and his family.

After a recent 16 game streak, the Boston Nine, I think had found themselves being written as the Rd Sox, because they had effectively removed the "E".

If I had to handicap the AL East right now, I'd have to favor the Sox. I know what you're saying - I'm a fan - but there have been plenty of years where I've waited on the team to implode in the second half. That could still happen with this team, but I don't think so. I think 2004 went a long way to washing a lot of the bad karma out of their system.
More importantly, I think in a seven game series, the Red Sox are better constructed than the yankees. Actually, I think they're better constructed over the long-haul as well.
Position by position -
Starters W/L ERA WHIP
Schilling 10-3 3.63 1.10 Mussina 10-3 3.24 1.04
Beckett 10-4 4.59 1.19 R. Johnson 10-7 5.13 1.28
Wakefield 7-8 4.05 1.24 J. Wright 5-5 4.23 1.52
Lester 4-0 3.06 1.55 Wang 8-4 4.21 1.33
J. Johnson 0-2* 6.35** 1.75** Chacon 4-3 6.71 1.81

* with Sox
** On the season
While The Big Unit has ten wins, he's been erratic. Jason Johnson, as bad as he has been for the season, looks like he would be no worse than the fourth starter on the Yankees, and the Sox have some highly rated pitching prospects in the minors.
As uncertain as the Boston bullpen has been at times, it's still been better than the arsonists that pass for pitchers in the Bronx. One last pitching note - if you gave me a choice right now, I wouldn't hesitate in taking Papelbon over Mo.

Catcher - Posada has the higher batting average and five more RBI, but has scored one fewer run. I'll take Varitek for his handling of the pitching staff.

First - Giambi will likely always knock in more RBI than Youkilis, but a .300 hitter with a much better glove than Giambi, I go Youkilis

Second - Loretta and Cano. Cano batting average is 20 points higher, but he's scored fewer runs and had fewer RBI's, plus Loretta was part of a team that set a new major league record for games played without an error. I go with Loretta.

Third - This is the exact problem with A-Rod. A-Rod is payed about $5 million a year more than any other player in baseball per year to be the so-called best player in the game. His numbers - .288 BA, 19 HR, 65 RBI, 61 R. Very good, but not the best in baseball. His Red Sox counterpart; .301, 10 HR, 43 RBI, 41 R.

Pic Set 10 Metro Match 6/17

All of the metro photos were taken by my wife, Kelly.


 

Pic Set 9 Metro Match 6/17

 

Pic Set 8 Metro Match 6/17

 

Pic Set 7 Metro Match 6/17

 

Pic Set 6 Metro Match 6/17